Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein

Portland State University November 14, 2008

Energy Myths

$4.00 a gallon is too much to pay for gasolineOil companies produce oil.We must conserve energy. Otherwise we’ll have an energy crisis.When we run out of oil, the marketplace will ensure that it’s replaced by something else.There’s enough fossil fuel in the ground to last for hundreds of years.Nuclear energy is dangerous.The greenhouse effect and global warming are bad.

A Brief History of Energy

4 Lbs.

The falling weight turnsthe paddle wheel in thetank of water. As the wheelturns, the temperature ofthe water increases. Water filled tank

Work converted to heat

CaloricCount Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson), 1753-1814Many othersCreditJames Prescott Joule, 1818-1889

Forms of Energy

KineticOrganizedRandom (Temperature)

PotentialGravitationalChemicalNuclearetc.

Thermal Radiation

30% reflected70% absorbed

30% reflected70% absorbedEarthrise on the Moon

30% reflected70% absorbed

T = 255 K = -18 oC = 0 oF

Earth’s Climate

The tilted axis

Earth’s Climate

The tilted axisThe El Niño Cycle

Earth’s Climate

The tilted axisThe El Niño CycleThe Thermohaline Flow

Earth’s Climate

The tilted axisThe El Niño CycleThe Thermohaline FlowThe Greenhouse Effect

The Greenhouse Effect

From the Sun: 343 W/m2

Water vapor, methane, Carbon dioxide, etc.

88% Greenhouse

T = 287K= 14oC = 57oF

Feedback effects

Limiting cases

(Preindustrial)

Sources of Useful Energy

Before 1800: Light from the

Sun

Coal Oil seeps Swamp gas

Nineteenth Century

CoalWhale OilE. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA.Illumination, LubricationFuel

We can no longer live on light from the SunWe can no longer live on light from the Sun

M. King Hubbert

Fitting the data—Hubbert’s PeakHubbert Curves

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

US Onshore Oil Production

Mb/d

Reserves and Discovery

Oil Reserve Data

Annual Oil Discoveries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

bn b

bls

Non-OPEC

OPEC

Production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

120019

80

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

Non-OPEC

OPEC

bnbb

ls

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003

Proved Oil Reserves

Model CalculationColin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Sci. Amer., 1998

Caution

Used 1.8 trillionTechnology = DiscoveryIncreasing price makes more available“Reserve” numbers very softBasic idea is right

The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100% allowable for next month

The San Francisco Chronicle, 1971

Kenneth Deffeyes:

Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi FieldsBy JEFF GERTH

The New York Times, February 24, 2004

…the country's oil fields now are in decline, promptingindustry and government officials to raise seriousquestions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfythe world's thirst for oil in coming years.

Some economists are …optimistic that if oil prices rise high enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied, averting supply problems.

But privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine.

…

New York Times, March 5, 2007 Oil Innovations pump new life into old wells. By Jad Mouawad

Many oil executives say that…peak oil theorists fail to take into account the way that sophisticated technology combined with higher prices make searching for new oil more affordable.Typically oil companies can only produce one barrel for every three they find. (This) represents a tremendous opportunity.

Oil Users

PetrochemicalsStationary power plantsHome heatingTransportation

Cars Trucks Planes Ships Trains

Global Energy Consumption, 1998

4.52

2.7 2.96

0.286

1.21

0.2860.828

0

1

2

3

4

5

TW

Oil Coal Biomass NuclearGas Hydro Renew

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)

Fossil Fuels

Oil Natural gas Shale oil Methane hydrate Coal

Coal

Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rateLargest deposits in USCan be liquified substitute oil

ButDirty (mercury, arsenic, sulfur)Greenhouse effectIncrease rate x5 replace oilIncreasing populationHigher standard of livingHubbert’s peak.—This century

What does the future hold?

Oil crisis very soonFossil fuel will run outUnknown consequences for the climateSolar and nuclearDilemma

Social, politicalTechnical

Conservation(Amory Lovins, Rocky Moutain Institute)

Ultra light/strong materialsHybridsEfficient buildings, factoriesFuel from switchgrass, poplar, sugar caneMore efficient use electricityFeebatesEtc.

Technological FixesGreenhouse Effect

Parasol at L1Sequester CO2

Solar

Hydro WindBiomassPV

(10 TW = 220,000 km2)Total Solar Flux =20,000 x 10 TW

Scientific American Magazine -December 16, 2007A Solar Grand PlanBy 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissionsBy Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis

Nuclear

Geothermal

Fission(10 TW = 10,000 GW

plants)Fusion

(1 gallon sea water =300 gallons gasoline)

Transportation

Advanced batteriesHydrogenOther fuels

We understand thebasic principles

Prediction

Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century, when the fuel runs out.

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (February 2, 2007)

Global warming due to human activity is real. It’s time to stop the debate and do somethigabout it.

2006 State of the Union:

“We are addicted to oil”

2007 State of the Union:

20% reduction in oil use by 2017

“clean coal…solar and wind…clean safe nuclear…”

“plug-in and hybrid vehicles…clean diesel and biodiesel…”

Ethanol from wood chips, grasses, agricultural waste

2008 State of the Union Address:

To build a future of energy security, we must trust in the creative genius of American researchers and entrepreneurs and empower them to pioneer a new generation of clean energy technology. Our security, our prosperity and our environment all require reducing our dependence on oil.

Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein