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outline • The context • The commitments • The sectors • The recipients • The donors AID for TRADE FLOWS WTO CTD Geneva, 3 July 2018 Frans Lammersen
outline
• The context
• The commitments
• The sectors
• The recipients
• The donors
AID for TRADE FLOWS
WTO CTD Geneva, 3 July 2018Frans Lammersen
Outline
Financing for Development
Aid for Trade
o Disbursements
o Commitments
o Financing modalities
Trade-related Other Official Flows
Finance for Development (1) Source and Destination
USD billion
Finance for Development (2) The Importance of ODA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LICs LMICs UMICs
OOF
Private flows
Remittances
ODA
Tax
revenues
Typ
e o
f Ex
tern
al F
low
i / T
ota
l ext
ern
al f
low
s Tax revenu
es/ To
tal extern
al flow
s
$3,955$1,005
USD billion
Finance for Development (3)
Finance modalities for sectors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
GNI per capita -
USD
mill
ion
LMICs UMICs HICs
OOF BPC
OOF Infra
OOF Banking
ODA Infra
ODA BPC
ODA banking
LDC
Finance for Development (4)Debt sustainability in LICs
Measuring aid for trade
Clear and agreed benchmarks to monitor global efforts and assure accurate accounting to assess additionality
Disbursements : sector distribution
Transport and Storage
29%
Energy Generation and Supply
22%
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry
21%
Banking & Financial Services
11%
Business And Other Services
5%
Industry 5%
Communications2%
Trade policy and education
2%Mineral Resources
and Mining 2%
USD 342 bn
2016 prices
USD 342 bn. disbursed since 2006
Commitments : sector distribution
IN 2016 DOWN 7.6%• Trade Policy -9% • Econ. Infra. -1.5%• BPC +17%
SINCE BASELINE UP 122%• Trade Policy +32% • Econ. Infra. +170%• BPC +72%
Economic Infrastructure
Productive capacity
Trade policy and regulations & Trade-related
adjustment
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002-05 avg. 2006-2008 2009-2011 2012-2014 2015 2016
USD billion (2016 prices)
Trade policy, BPC and Econ Infra up since 2006
Commitments : regional distribution
In 2016Asia -14.2%Africa -2.2%America - 5.0%Europe +36.0%Oceania +42.3%
SINCE BASELINE Asia +82%Africa +159%America +150%Europe +233%Oceania +119%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002-05 avg. 2006-08 avg. 2009-11 avg. 2012-14 avg. 2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Africa America Asia Europe Oceania
Asia and Africa largest recipients
Commitments : regional and global programs
In 2016Regional Aid for Trade up 6.7%• Trade Policy -13.3% • Econ. Infra. +70%• BPC -5.8%
SINCE BASELINE Regional Aid for Trade up 236%• Trade Policy + 82% • Econ. Infra. +326%• BPC +235%
(USD million, 2016 prices)
continued growth esp. in BCP and Econ Infra
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2002-05avg.
2006-08avg.
2009-11avg.
2012-14avg.
2015 2016
Building productive Capacities
Economic InfrastructureTrade policy
Commitments : income distribution
In 2016• LDCs -17 %• oLICs -41.5%• LMICs -6 %• UMICs +4.5%
SINCE BASELINE • LDCs +140%• LICs +180%• LMICs +129%• UMICs + 53%
slow down in commitments to LDCs
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002-05 avg. 2006-08 avg. 2009-11 avg. 2012-14 avg. 2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
LDCs OLICs LMICs UMICs
Commitments : largest recipient and donors
7.7
8.1
8.3
9
9.4
9.6
13.7
16.9
19.5
20.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
Indonesia
Pakistan
Africa, regional
Iraq
Morocco
Egypt
Afghanistan
Turkey
Viet Nam
India
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Grants Loans
5.4
5.7
8.5
12.2
17.7
25
35.3
39.2
43.7
45.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Netherlands
AsDB
AfDB
United Kingdom
France
Germany
United States
World Bank
EU Institutions
Japan
Grants Loans
Commitments per capita
LICs highest AfT per capita recipients
14 7 4
Low-Income Lower MIC Upper MIC
USD 2016 prices
41 27 13 5 5
Oceania Europe Africa America Asia
USD 2016 prices
Commitments : Building Productive Capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002-05avg.
2006-08avg.
2009-11avg.
2012-14avg.
2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
AgricultureBanking & Fin. Serv.Business & Other Serv.Industry
In 2016• down 8% esp.• banking – 25%• agriculture – 10%
SINCE BASELINE• up 130%
SHARE• Agriculture 45%• Banking 28%
Steady increase since baseline, small decrease in 2016
trade development marker
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Principal objective Significant objective
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
One third of BPC is directly trade related
IN 2016
-16%
Since baseline+ 100%
Trade Facilitation
commitments up disbursements down
0
200
400
600
800
(USD million, 2016 prices)
Commitments Disbursements
In 2016Commitments up 14.5%Disbursements down 3%
Since baseline Commitments up 440%Disbursements up 882%
Grants and loans commitments
Loans surpass grants since 2009 in DC… ... and since 2014 in LDCs
Grants50%
Grants31%
Loans50%
Loans69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Grants55%
Grants39%
Loans45%
Loans61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Additionality
share AfT up 8bp since baseline
Sector allocable ODA
share AfT in sector allocable ODA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160(USD billion, 2016 prices)
30.8%
38.7%
Trade-related other official flows
Economic Infrastructure
Building Productive
Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
COMMITMENTS(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Economic Infrastructure
Building Productive
Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002-05avg.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DISBURSEMENTS
In 2016 TPR 124%BPC -16%Infra - 8%
Since baselineTPR 334%BPC 330%Infra 211%
In 2016 TPR -50%BPC -2%Infra 0%
Since baselineTPR 124%BPC 527%Infra 497%
Trade-related other official flows
Low-income
Middle-income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002-05avg.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Middle income countries get 90% of total
Trade-related private finance mobilised
Conclusions
Financing for Development
o ODA for LICs – OOF for MICs
o Terms are hardening for all
Aid for Trade USD 342 bn. disbursed since 2006
o Additional 8 basis points since baseline
o Commitments up 122% since baseline
o Asia and Africa main recipients
o LICs highest per capita
More information
www.oecd.org/development/aft/ www.oecd.org/aidfortrade
Thank you
