Outlook for Asia Amy Auster
Head of International EconomicsMarch 2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Real GDP % annual change ANZforecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
Real GDP % annual change
Real GDP
ANZforecasts
Note: GDP based on 50 countries aggregated using ‘purchasing power pa rity’ weights. Inflation based on CPI in the G7 countries aggregated on a PPP basis.Sources: National agencies, Datastream, OECD and Economics@ANZ.
Global annual growth
30 year average
G7 annual headline CPI
30 year average
Global economy has enjoyed strong growth, low inflation
15 year average
- 2 -
As developing countries have contributed more
Contribution to global growth
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980s 1990s 2000s
USEuropeJapanDeveloping countries
% of total
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980s 1990s 2000s
Brazil Russia India
China Korea Indonesia
% of total
- 3 -
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Asia is set to be the global leader in the long term
PopulationMillions of people
Real GDPUS$ trillion
Rankings of economies by GDPRanking and GDP in US$ billions, PPP terms
GDPRankGDPRank
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2015
750
788
883
920
938
959
1,352
1,531
1,532
1,723
1,966
2,211
2,225
2,292
2,893
2,895
4,722
6,763
16,816
17,795
1,02614Spain
1,06413Mexico
57018Turkey
62917Taiwan
63816Australia
55919Thailand
51223Poland
86315Indonesia
53220South Africa
1,09912Korea
1,5529Brazil
1,6948Italy
2,4985Germany
1,8256United Kingdom
1,8117France
1,58510Russia
4,0093Japan
3,6024India
12,3321United States
8,0912China
2005
Developing country population
Industrialised country population
Developing country GDP
Industrialised country GDP
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 4 -
China’s integration has been a key driver
81 85 89 93 97 '01 '05
10
15
20
25
Share of global exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-90
Sep-93
May-97
Jan-01
Sep-04
Share of global economy
% of total (market basis)
USA
Germany
Japan
China
Source: Datastream, IMF
% of total (PPP basis)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
USA
EU
Japan
China
India
- 5 -Source: World Trade Organisation, Datastream, Economics@ANZ
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1950 1962 1974 1986 1998
1995=100
Volume
Value
World merchandise exports
Effect #1: Competition depresses CPI
Producers competing globally
China’s deflationary impact on manufactures exports…
-4
-2
0
2
4
6 % YOY
Core CPI
ULC PPIUSA
-2
0
2
4
6
92 96 00 04
%
Core CPI
ULC
PPIAustralia
- 6 -
20
60
100
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
US$ / tonne
Coking coal
Steaming coal
Effect #2 – Commodity price inflation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
98 00 02 04 06
Annual change (mn bbl/day)
Global oil demand
36% of increase due
to China
20-year average
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
96 98 00 02 04
Annual change (mtoe)
Global coal demand
78% of increase due
to China
20-year average
0
20
40
60
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
US$/bbl
Futures curve
WTI oil prices
Source: BP Energy Handbook, 2005, Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
Coal prices
- 7 -
Oil consumption has further to grow in Asia
Oil consumption per capita
Source: BP Energy Handbook, 2005
- 8 -Sources: IMF, BIS, Bloomberg
Effect #3 - Swings in savings / investment balances
Stock of inbound FDI Total foreign private capital flows
0
20
40
60
1990 2003 2015Developed Developing
% of GDP
0
100
200
300
400
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
All developing countries Asia ex-Japan
25
30
35
40
1990-99
2000-02
2003 2004 2005-15
Saving Investment
Asia ex-Japan S/I rates
US$ bn
% GDP
0
1
2
3
4
90-99 00-02 2003 2004
% of GDPJapan net lending
- 9 -Sources: IMF, BIS, Bloomberg
0
1
2
3
4
5
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04
US$ tr
Leading to low long term yields
Global FX reserves
China and Japan hold 47% of all global FX reserves
0
5
10
15
20
88 92 95 99 03 06
% per annumAustralia
10-yr gov’t bond yield
0
5
10
15
88 92 95 99 03 06
% per annumUS
30 year average
15 year average
30 year average
15 year average
- 10 -
05
101520253035
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
%
05
101520253035
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
%
05
101520253035
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
% AUD/USD
Sources: Bloomberg; Economics@ANZ
USD/EUR USD/JPY
AUD/JPY
1-month currency options current pricing against long-term average
12.5%
10.5% 11.0%
Effect #4 – Financial market stability
05
101520253035
98 00 01 02 03 04 05
%
10.6%
- 11 -
China’s growth revision puts it into #6 on MER basis
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
Nominal GDP, US$ bn Real GDP growth
0
3
6
9
12
Q11995
Q21997
Q31999
Q42001
Q12004
Q22006
Q32008
% YOY
New series
Old series
1,6401,4952003
1,0839911999
1,0199461998
1,3241,1752001
1,1981,0802000
1,4531,5582002
2004
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
666602
621620
855824
721693
951897
1,9311,702
New seriesOld series
- 12 -
Growth driven mostly by investment, less by exports
Sources: UN Statistics Database, Economics@ANZ
Gross fixed capital formation
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002
Contribution to GDP (%)
US
AustraliaJapan
China
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002
Contribution to GDP (%)
US
Australia China
Germany
Japan
India
Exports
- 13 -
Whereas consumption has played a lesser role
Sources: UN Statistics Database, Datastream, Economics@ANZ
Household consumption % GDP
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1978 1986 1994 2002
Contribution to GDP (%)US
Australia
Japan
China
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05
% YOY, 3mma
Retail sales
- 14 -
Local gov’ts have been significant investment source
FAI by ownership
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981 1987 1993 1999
State-owned units Collective unitsIndividual units Others
% of total
FAI by source of funds
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1981 1987 1993 1999State budget Domestic loansForeign funds Self-financeOthers
% of total
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 15 -
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25$US billion
Exports (LHS)
ex-factory prices (RHS)
yoy%
China’s machinery & electronics
0.00.5
1.01.52.02.5
3.03.5
4.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20$US billion
ex-factory clothing prices (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
yoy%
0102030405060708090
100
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16$US millionMotor vehicles & parts
exports (LHS)
ex-factory prices light industry (RHS)
yoy%
0200
400600800
1000
12001400
1600
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50$US million
Average steel products prices (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
yoy%
China’s light industry
China’s steel productsChina’s textiles
Allowing economies of scale to be achieved
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 16 -
Real exchange rate vs USD
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
22087 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan 96=100
China
Japan
Korea
On both charts an upward movement indicates an appreciation of t he ‘foreign’ currency against the ‘home’ currency (USD or JPY). Any implied % shift is measured as a prop ortion of the home currency. Sources: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
Exchange rate may have helped, but not much since ‘93
- 17 -
China’s cost comparisons – crude steel
Average global cost of production: US$228/tonne
• Labour US$20.09
• Energy & reductants US$ 72.14
• Ferrous raw materials US$88.76
• Other US$47.98
China cost US$227/tonne
• Labour US$9.01 (44% of global)
• Energy and reductants US$76.44 (105% of global)
• Ferrous raw materials US$99.99 (112% of total)
• Other US$42.07
Russia US$149/ tonne Brazil US$171 / tonne Australia US$191 / tonne
S Korea US$226 / tonne Japan US$252 / tonne USA US$265 / tonne
France US$282 / tonne
But labour is 10% or less of production cost ….cost of capital is missing from this equation
•Cheap money
•Land breaks
•Tax breaks, duty exemptions
•Energy subsidies – oil and electricity
Source: AME publications
- 18 -
Authorities re-focusing on quality and equity of growth
Sources: Datastream, China Statistical Yearbook, Economics@ANZ
Retail sales
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
RMB, annual
Disposable per capita income, urban family
Net per capita
income, rural family
Personal income
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05
% YOY, 3mma
Urban
Rural
- 19 -
But this doesn’t change investment outlook
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Feb-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-050
10
20
30
40
50
60
70RMB bn
Annual growth (RHS)
% YOY
Cumulative FAI
Fixed asset investment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-06
% YOY 3mma
Industrial production
Exports
Exports and IP
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 20 -
Little question that there is significant excess capacity
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Oct-02 Sep-03 Aug-04 Jul-05
% YOY
Construction ex-factory price index
Manufacturing ex-factory price index
CPI
Lack of pricing power
Sources: Datastream, IMF, Economics@ANZ
113.3
59.1
48.0
47.5
121.7
M2 / GDP
4.7
98
7.8
1.1
4.7
M2 / reserves
112.5
76.7
65.1
24.1
40.0
Credit / GDP
%
620India
36,627Japan
40,050USA
14,120Korea
1,324China
GDP per capita
US$
High liquidity
- 21 -
External surpluses symptomatic of regulatory distortions
FDI
0
200
400
600
800
Jan-01 Jul-02 Jan-04 Jul-050
5
10
15
20
25US$ bn % YOY
M2 (RHS)
Int'l reserves (LHS)
Trade balance
Sources: Datastream, IMF, Economics@ANZ
Reserves and money base
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06
US$ bn
0
5
10
15
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04
US$ bn
- 22 -Sources: Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
7.70
7.80
7.90
8.00
8.10
8.20
8.30
8.40
8.50
Jan-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Feb-06Cross ceiling US$ ceiling Spot rate US$ floor Cross floor
US$/CNY
Midpoint of the band established at initial 2.1% appreciation against US$, while trading band is widened to 0.3% on either side of the midpoint
Old trading band of +/-.03% with US$ "peg" trading inside the band
The old and new band
Revaluation part of effort to release pressures
- 23 -
China (and others) have experienced this before
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1986 1992 1998 2004
% annual change
GDP growth
Inflation
Sources: Datastream, JETRO, Economics@ANZ
0.28Korea
76-90
0.44Taiwan
76-90
0.34Japan
56-72
0.25China
91-04
Investment efficiency
Average p.a.
GDP and inflation Investment efficiency
Investment efficiency is the rate of contribution to GDP growth of a 1% increase in GFCF
- 24 -
Another downturn would reduce import demand
1070
130190250310370
1965 1973 1981 1989 1997
mn tonnes
10
210
410
610
810
1010
1965 1973 1981 1989 1997
mtoeOil consumption Coal consumption
0
10
20
30
40
US Eurozone Japan China India
Bank deposits
Gov't debt
Corporate debt
Equities
Regional composition global financial stock, 2003 US$ tr
Sources: BP Energy Statistics Yearbook, 2005; McKinsey Quarterly Report Nov 2005
- 25 -
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 5 9 13 17 21 250
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 5 9 13 17 21 25
% %
Source: Datastream, Angus Maddison The World Economy on OECD database
Japan1957-1986
China1980 - present
Japan1957-1980
China1980 - present
Long-term outlook: Rising wealth in China
Share of world merchandise exports
GDP/capita as a % of US GDP/capita
- 26 -
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Q1 01 Q3 02 Q1 04 Q3 05 Q1 07
Real GDP % YOY
Real
Inventories
Final domestic demand
Net exports
Japan an important renewed centre of demand
Contribution to GDP growth Consumer confidence
30
35
40
45
50
55
01 02 03 04 05
Net balancejudging "good" (%) Tokyo
All Japan
Sources: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 27 -
3.84.35.14.1Taiwan
7.17.47.88.4Vietnam
4.53.54.87.3Hong Kong
4.24.34.54.6Thailand
2008200720062005
% change in real GDP from previous year
World
East Asia excl Japan
Cambodia
Indonesia
Korea
China
New Zealand
Australia
Euro area
Japan
United States
3.22.51.52.7
N/a6.46.46.9
7.27.57.88.1
3.23.82.92.5
2.11.91.91.3
1.82.03.12.8
3.02.73.33.5
3.34.75.34.0
8.89.09.49.9
5.36.14.85.6
3.93.94.34.3
* Weighted by GDP in US$ at purchasing power parity exchange rat es. Sources: National agencies; IMF; Economics@ANZ.
World growth forecasts
- 28 -
Commodity prices remain on track with growth story
Oil Gold
US$/t Coking Coal Iron Ore
010203040506070
02 03 04 05 06 07
US$/bbl
WTI
forecast
200250300350400450500550
02 03 04 05 06 07
forecastUS$/oz
020406080
100120140
02 03 04 05 06 07
forecast
20304050607080
02 03 04 05 06 07
forecastUS$/t
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 29 -
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
95 96 98 99 01 02 04 05
PPI among 3 of 4 major exporters picking up
US PPI Germany PPI
Japan PPI China PPI
% YOY
-4-202468
95 96 98 99 01 02 04 05
% YOY
-4-3-2-101234
95 96 98 99 01 02 04 05
% YOY
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
95 96 98 99 01 02 04 05
% YOY
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 30 -
US example – as yet limited pass through
Correlation btwn US CPI and tradables prices seems to be improving
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
% YOY
US headlineCPI
US import inflation ex-petrol
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 31 -
Historically import prices held down by Japan
US import price index by country
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan 1994=100
US import prices from Euroland
US import prices from Japan
US import prices ex-petrol
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 32 -
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25$US billion
Exports (LHS)
ex-factory prices (RHS)
yoy%
China’s machinery & electronics
0.00.5
1.01.52.02.5
3.03.5
4.0
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20$US billion
ex-factory clothing prices (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
yoy%
0102030405060708090
100
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16$US millionMotor vehicles & parts
exports (LHS)
ex-factory prices light industry (RHS)
yoy%
0200
400600800
1000
12001400
1600
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50$US million
Average steel products prices (RHS)
Exports (LHS)
yoy%
China’s light industry
China’s steel productsChina’s textiles
We are now relying on China margin squeeze
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 33 -
Inflation accelerating more rapidly in Asia than G7
G7 inflation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-90
Jan-94
Jan-98
Jan-02
Jan-06
% YOY
Core
Headline
Asia inflation
-2
3
8
13
18
90 94 98 02 06
Asia ex Japan and China
Asia ex-China
Asia ex-Japan
% YOY
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 34 -
Early Warning Indicator results
ASIAN Average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100CHINA
40
60
80
100
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100
INDONESIA
0
20
40
60
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100
Source: Economics@ANZ
- 35 -
Early Warning Indicator results
THAILAND
20
40
60
80
100
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100 SINGAPORE
20
40
60
80
100
120
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100
JAPAN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100HONG KONG
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan99=100
Source: Economics@ANZ
- 36 -
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Aug-02 Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07
% pa
USFed funds
JapanDiscount rate
EuroEUR refi rate
Policy rates – US, EUR, JPY Policy rates – AU, NZD
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
Inflation is main risk to assumption of neutral policy
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Aug-02 Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07
% pa
New Zealand
Australia
- 37 -
Japan deleveraging in private sector has already begun
Credit growth
85
1085
2085
3085
4085
5085
6085
7085
8085
9085
10085
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Domestic credit Domestic credit: claims on private sector
¥ trillion
Source: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
- 38 -
More rapid Japan process is a risk to LT yields
Source: Bloomberg
US 10 year gov’t bonds Australia 10 year gov’t bonds
UK 10 year gov’t bonds NZ 10 year gov’t bonds
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 04 05 07
% pa
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 04 05 07
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 04 05 07
% pa
% pa
0
2
4
6
8
01 02 04 05 07
- 39 -
Policy rates – North Asia
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Aug-02 Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07
% pa
New Zealand
Taiwan
Singapore
Hong Kong
Australia
Philippines
China
Korea
AUD/NZD rate premium is declining relative to Asia
- 40 -
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
RBA Commodities ANZ Derived ex-coal & Iron Ore (LHS)
RBA Commodities ANZ Derived series (LHS)
Australian Dollar (RHS)
AUD/USD2001/02=100
Relationship between AUD and commodities
Source: ABS, Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
- 41 -
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2 year Spread fwd 18 months (RHS)
Australian Dollar (LHS)
AUD/USD Spread %
Relationship between AUD and rate differentials
Source: Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
- 42 -
AUD/USD and NZD/USD
AUD/NZD
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
US$
AUD/NZD
NZD/USD
0.66
0.53
30
60
90
120
150
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
JPY
USD/JPY
AUD/JPY
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
A$
USD/JPY and AUD/JPY
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Economics@ANZ
Still expecting general USD weakness & softer A$, NZ$
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EUR
USD/EUR
AUD/EUR
EUR/USD and AUD/EUR
- 43 -
Real exchange rate vs USD Real exchange rate vs JPY
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Jan 96=100
China
Japan
Asean 5
Australia
HK
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20000 01 02 03 04 05
Jan 96=100
Asean 5
China
Korea
HK
Australia
On both charts an upward movement indicates an appreciation of t he ‘foreign’ currency against the ‘home’ currency (USD or JPY). Any implied % shift is measured as a prop ortion of the home currency. Sources: Datastream, Economics@ANZ
Asian currencies will follow strong yuan and yen
- 44 -
.58
.68
1.27
1.69
1.25
108
4.80
3.00
0.25
5.75
5.00
Dec 2006
.55
.68
1.21
1.82
1.30
102
4.50
3.00
0.50
5.75
4.00
Dec 2007
5.55.5RBA cash rate
.740.733AUD – US$
.64.68NZD – US$
1.361.31US$ - SwFr
1.671.72£ - US$
3.002.25European Central Bank refi rate
4.754.39US 10-year bond yield
118117.5US$ - ¥
1.17
0.00
4.25
Dec 2005*
1.18
0.00
5.00
Jun 2006
€ - US$
Bank of Japan call rate
US Fed funds rate
* actual
Regional financial market forecasts
- 45 -
45.5
15 918
53.0
1.63
3.75
7.75
41.0
9 831
32.8
1 007
8.07
117
Dec 2005*
43.0
16 250
51.25
1.60
3.71
7.79
38.0
9 000
31.4
980
7.94
118
Jun 2006
42.0
16 400
50.8
1.58
3.68
7.78
37.0
8 750
30.5
995
7.78
108
Dec 2006
16 728US$ - Dong
50.0US$ - Peso
29.0US$ - NT$
990US$ - Won
36.3US$ - Baht
8 580US$ - Rupiah
3.50US$ - Ringgit
7.74US$ - HK$
42.8
1.56
7.55
102
Dec 2007
US$ - Rupee
US$ - S$
US$ - Yuan
US$ - ¥
* actual
Asia currency forecasts vs US$
- 46 -
33.0
11 664
38.9
1.22
2.77
5.68
30.1
7 203
24.1
740
5.91
86.3
Dec 2005*
31.1
11 250
36.1
1.13
2.61
5.48
27.5
6 336
22.1
690
5.59
83.8
Jun 2006
29.4
10 910
34.5
1.07
2.50
5.29
25.5
5 950
20.4
677
5.29
73.4
Dec 2006
10 997 AUD - Dong
34.0AUD - Peso
19.7AUD - NT$
673AUD – Won
24.7AUD - Baht
5 834 AUD - Rupiah
2.38AUD - Ringgit
5.26AUD - HK$
28.6
1.06
5.13
69.4
Dec 2007
AUD - Rupee
AUD - S$
AUD - Yuan
AUD - ¥
* actual
Asia currency forecasts vs AUD