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Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

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IN MEMORIAM Fred Billings The institute regrets the passing of Fred Billings, who was a long-time member of the CIFST, and the CIFT before it. He also was active in a number of other professional and trade organizations, including the Chemical Institute of Canada, American Chemical Society, Canadian Animal Health Institute, the Canadian Feed Industry Association, Nutrition Society of Canada, Agricultural Institute of Can- ada, and I'Ordre des agronomes de la province de Quebec. Fred was a recognized authority on biotin and was known for his encyclopedic knowledge of all the vitamins. He put together a two volume annotated bibliography on biotin which he updated just prior to his death. The bibliographies (published by Roche Basle) are in great demand by research- ers and libraries throughout the world. George Laird George Laird passed away on March 14, 1980, after a lengthy illness. Born December 12, 1916, George had resided in St. James and Winnipeg all his life. After graduation from the Univer- sity of Manitoba with a Bachelor of Science and from the faculty of Education, he taught for one year at Kenwood and one year at Crystal City before retiring to his first love; that of Science. He joined Canada Packers and was with them for 37 years, retiring due to m health in October 1978. He held the position of Plant 'Chemist and Quality Assurance Manager. George was a member of the Institute of Food Technolo- gists (International) and a founding member of the Win- nipeg section of the Canadian Institute of Food Scientists and Technologists (CIFST). He was also a past member of the CIC, Chemical Institute of Canada, and always keenly interested in all advancements in the field of Food Science. NATIONAL COMMITTEE REPORT National Conference Committee According to CIFST by-laws, this Committee is ". responsible for formulating broad policies and making recommendations to Council regarding any aspects of the plans and conduct of ... (CIFST) Conferences. It shall also receive and review the consolidated reports of the Annual Conference Chairman and use them to provide guidance for succeeding (local) Conference Committees." The Commit- tee Chairman is appointed every year by the incoming CIFST President; the Chairman in turn appoints any new A22/Institute Affairs Committee members replacing those whose terms (usually 3 years) expired. Normally, Committee members are appoint- ed from CIFST members who have actively participated in a CIFST Conference organization on the local Committee level. The 1979-80 Committee members are: R. Dupuis (Quebec City), P. Jelen (Edmonton; Committee Chairman), T. McEwen (Winnipeg), and D. Schroder (Halifax, now Edmonton). The current activities of the Committee are: (I) Development of procedures for selection and evalua- tion offuture Conference sites, with a particular empha- sis on the feasibility of holding Conferences in smaller sections; (2) Recommendations to Council regarding the involve- ment of the CIFST Executive Director in Conference planning and operation; (3) Updating the guidelines for local Conference organizing Committees; and (4) Othertasks,suchasassistanceto 1981 and 1982 Confer- ence Committees. In the past year, the Committee made two recommenda- tions to the Council. Regarding the feasibility and desirabil- ity of holding our Conference on a University campus, the recommendation was essentially negative, unless special cir- cumstances arise. The second recommendation was to create a position of a CIFST Conference Manager, to be responsi- ble to the Conference Committee (analogous to the Journal Editor-Publishing Committee relationship). The Confer- ence Manager was envisioned to be a volunteer position with responsibilities in the technical (and thus repetitive) aspects of the Conference organization, such as enforcing mailing deadlines, developing and updating mailing lists for exhibi- tors and publicity, standardization of registration proce- dures, etc. It is now anticipated that the CIFST Executive Director may assume these responsibilities. Other areas that appear to require attention of future National Conference Committees include development of policies regarding CIFST publication rights to papers presented at our Conferences, technical conduct of paper presentations, Conference exhibits procedures, procedures regarding call for papers, etc. OUTLOOK FOR FOOD PRICES IN 1980 P. Jelen Chairman Editorial Note: The following article is taken from Food Market Commentary, Vol. I, No. 2, pp. 1-16, published by the Food Markets Analysis division of the Policy, Planning and Economics Branch, Agriculture Canada. F.R.V. Acting Editor Food is the second most important component of the Con- sumer Price Index (CPI). It has a weight of 21.5 percent in the Index while that of housing, the largest component of the CPI, is 34.0 percent. The CPI measures the percentage change through time in the cost of purchasing a constant "basket" of goods and services. It does not allow for changes in relative quantities of commodities purchased and changes in consumer tastes. A lO-percent increase in the CPI, there- fore, does not necessarily mean that the average consumer spends 10 percent more for food. J. Inst. Can. Sei. Teehnol. Aliment. Vo!. 13. No. 3, Juillet 1980
Transcript
Page 1: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

IN MEMORIAM

Fred Billings The institute regrets the passing of Fred Billings, who was

a long-time member of the CIFST, and the CIFT before it. He also was active in a number of other professional and trade organizations, including the Chemical Institute of Canada, American Chemical Society, Canadian Animal Health Institute, the Canadian Feed Industry Association, Nutrition Society of Canada, Agricultural Institute of Can­ada, and I'Ordre des agronomes de la province de Quebec.

Fred was a recognized authority on biotin and was known for his encyclopedic knowledge of all the vitamins. He put together a two volume annotated bibliography on biotin which he updated just prior to his death. The bibliographies (published by Roche Basle) are in great demand by research­ers and libraries throughout the world.

George Laird George Laird passed away on March 14, 1980, after a

lengthy illness. Born December 12, 1916, George had resided in St. James

and Winnipeg all his life. After graduation from the Univer­sity of Manitoba with a Bachelor of Science and from the faculty of Education, he taught for one year at Kenwood and one year at Crystal City before retiring to his first love; that of Science. He joined Canada Packers and was with them for 37 years, retiring due to m health in October 1978. He held the position of Plant 'Chemist and Quality Assurance Manager.

George was a member of the Institute of Food Technolo­gists (International) and a founding member of the Win­nipeg section of the Canadian Institute of Food Scientists and Technologists (CIFST). He was also a past member of the CIC, Chemical Institute of Canada, and always keenly interested in all advancements in the field of Food Science.

NATIONAL COMMITTEE REPORT National Conference Committee

According to CIFST by-laws, this Committee is ". responsible for formulating broad policies and making recommendations to Council regarding any aspects of the plans and conduct of ... (CIFST) Conferences. It shall also receive and review the consolidated reports of the Annual Conference Chairman and use them to provide guidance for succeeding (local) Conference Committees." The Commit­tee Chairman is appointed every year by the incoming CIFST President; the Chairman in turn appoints any new

A22/Institute Affairs

Committee members replacing those whose terms (usually 3 years) expired. Normally, Committee members are appoint­ed from CIFST members who have actively participated in a CIFST Conference organization on the local Committee level. The 1979-80 Committee members are: R. Dupuis (Quebec City), P. Jelen (Edmonton; Committee Chairman), T. McEwen (Winnipeg), and D. Schroder (Halifax, now Edmonton).

The current activities of the Committee are: (I) Development of procedures for selection and evalua­

tion offuture Conference sites, with a particular empha­sis on the feasibility of holding Conferences in smaller sections;

(2) Recommendations to Council regarding the involve­ment of the CIFST Executive Director in Conference planning and operation;

(3) Updating the guidelines for local Conference organizing Committees; and

(4) Othertasks,suchasassistanceto 1981 and 1982 Confer­ence Committees.

In the past year, the Committee made two recommenda­tions to the Council. Regarding the feasibility and desirabil­ity of holding our Conference on a University campus, the recommendation was essentially negative, unless special cir­cumstances arise. The second recommendation was to create a position of a CIFST Conference Manager, to be responsi­ble to the Conference Committee (analogous to the Journal Editor-Publishing Committee relationship). The Confer­ence Manager was envisioned to be a volunteer position with responsibilities in the technical (and thus repetitive) aspects of the Conference organization, such as enforcing mailing deadlines, developing and updating mailing lists for exhibi­tors and publicity, standardization of registration proce­dures, etc. It is now anticipated that the CIFST Executive Director may assume these responsibilities.

Other areas that appear to require attention of future National Conference Committees include development of policies regarding CIFST publication rights to papers presented at our Conferences, technical conduct of paper presentations, Conference exhibits procedures, procedures regarding call for papers, etc.

OUTLOOK FOR FOOD PRICES IN 1980

P. Jelen Chairman

Editorial Note: The following article is taken from Food Market Commentary, Vol. I, No. 2, pp. 1-16, published by the Food Markets Analysis division of the Policy, Planning and Economics Branch, Agriculture Canada.

F.R.V. Acting Editor

Food is the second most important component of the Con­sumer Price Index (CPI). It has a weight of 21.5 percent in the Index while that of housing, the largest component of the CPI, is 34.0 percent. The CPI measures the percentage change through time in the cost of purchasing a constant "basket" of goods and services. It does not allow for changes in relative quantities of commodities purchased and changes in consumer tastes. A lO-percent increase in the CPI, there­fore, does not necessarily mean that the average consumer spends 10 percent more for food.

J. Inst. Can. Sei. Teehnol. Aliment. Vo!. 13. No. 3, Juillet 1980

Page 2: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

Retail food prices, as measured by the CPI, are expected to average about 13 percent higher in 1979 than in 1978. Food prices increased substantially during the first quarter of 1979, but the rate of increase moderated during the second and third quarters. Higher prices for beef, fresh vegetables, and cereal and bakery products were mainly responsible for the increase in food prices during the first quarter. As retail beef, pork, and poultry prices decreased during the second quarter, food price increases moderated. Seasonal decreases in fresh fruit and vegetable prices, and lower poultry prices during the third quarter partially offset price increases for most other food items. Fourth-quarter food prices are expected to show little change from those of the third quar­ter. Lower prices for pork and poultry may partially offset moderate increases for other food groups.

Factors that May Affect Food Prices in 1980 Food prices will continue to rise in 1980 but the rate of increase should show some moderation compared with that of 1979. Factors contributing to the increase in food prices in 1980 may include the beef cycle, world demand for grains, and higher energy, interest rate, and marketing costs.

Beef Cycle Beef is the most important expenditure item in the Canadian consumer's food basket and on the average accounts for about 15 percent of expenditures on food prepared at home. Changes in retail beef prices, therefore, have a significant effect on the food component of the CPI. The sharp increases in feedgrain costs during 1972-75 initiated a cycli­cal reduction of beef breeding herds in 1975. By 1977, this reduction was affecting beef production and supplies. With a reduced beef supply and continued strong consumer demand, beef prices surged upward in 1978 and 1979 (Figure I). Since the reduction in beef supplies is likely to continue through 1980, retail beef prices are expected to rise in 1980 by 15 to 17 percent.

World Demandfor Grains Prices of domestic feedgrains reflect world prices, which fluctuate according to the crop conditions and demand requirements abroad. The latest forecast placed the 1979-80 world grain (wheat, coarse grain, and rice) production at 1.5 billion tonnes, or 4 percent below last year's record crop, which would still make it the second largest crop in history.'

Despite two successive record crops, grain stocks are expected to fall in 1980, and current North American prices are quite buoyant. This buoyancy is due to the relatively low values of the Canadian and V.S. dollars, continuing high levels of world import demand for grain, and the V.S. grain reserve policy. If these factors remain constant and world grain production in 1980 is close to its long-term trend, buoyant grain prices will continue throughout 1980. These higher prices will be reflected in higher prices for poultry, eggs, and dairy products. How they will affect beef prices in 1980 is less certain. Higher feedgrain prices can be expected to slow the building phase of the cattle cycle. This slowing will tend to moderate the rate of increase in beef prices in the short run, that is, 1980. It will, however, lead to high beef prices in two to three years' time.

Energy Energy costs enter the food system at all levels of production and marketing. The food system accounts for approximately

Can. Inst. Food Sci. Technol. J. Vo!. 13, No. 3, July 1980

15 percent of total Canadian energy consumption with the largest share going to the food processing, distribution, and retailing sectors.2 Any increase in domestic energy prices will, therefore, increase retail food prices. In addition, Can­ada imports a large portion of its fruits and vegetables from the Vnited States. Between December 1978 and August 1979 the energy component of the CPI rose 29.9 percent in the Vnited States. Increases in V.S. oil prices raise production and transportation costs and consequently retail prices in Canada for the imported fruits and vegetables.

Crude oil prices in Canada have been rising $1.00 every six months since July 1977. The Canadian price for crude oil now stands at $13.75 a barrel - about $10.00 under the world price. Price increases in 1980 could substantially increase food prices. If, for example, the crude oil price rises by $4 a barrel (30.0 percent) in 1980, the CPI for food would increase by about 1.3 percent. 3

Interest Rates A rise in interest rates will increase the cost of servicing debt for all agricultural sectors. The increased costs that cattle feeders will face will put downward pressure on the price they would pay for feeder calves. Farmers with cow-calf enterprises will then face lower prices for their product as well as higher interest costs. These circumstances could slow the expansion of the beef herd now underway and hold beef prices at higher levels. Hog prices are already weakening and higher interest costs will be an additional pressure towards reduced production and higher retail pork prices. In some of the regulated sectors, such as the ones for eggs and poultry, where cost-of-production formulas are used to determine prices, higher costs of capital will result in higher retail prices. Grain prices, on the other hand, will not be directly affected by a rise in interest rates since feedgrain prices are determined in the international market and those for domes­tic wheat are fixed under the regulations of the Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) Act.

On the positive side, the rise in interest rates helps to maintain the exchange value of the Canadian dollar, and therefore protects farmers from higher costs of imported inputs and consumers from higher prices for imported food products.

Labor, Transportation, and Packaging Labor, transportation, and packaging are the main compo­nents of marketing costs. They are directly influenced by price changes in the economy. In 1980, marketing costs may rise 8 to 9 percent and raise food prices 4 to 5 percent.

Summary When all the above factors are taken together, and assuming that the dollar will continue to trade in the 85- to 86-cent (V.S.) range, the 1980 rate of increase in food prices should be somewhat more moderate than that of 1979. In 1980, the food component of the CPI will probably increase 10 to 12 percent.

Commodity Outlook Beef During the first nine months of 1979 the level of beef prices was 29.9 .percent higher than the 1978 average. This increase in retail beef prices is a continuation of the price rise that began late in 1977, and reflects mainly the cyclical reduction in beef supplies. Prices of lower-grade beef cuts (ground

Institute Affairs! A23

Page 3: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

FIGURE 1. THE BEEF CYCLE, CANADA, 1971-79

CATTLE ON FARMSa (in millions) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5

1971

1973 a July 1.

1975

1977

1979

PRICES OF AI,2 STEERS AT TORONTOb ($/cwt)

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

30 40 50 60 70

CPI-BEEF (1971 = lOO) 90 110 130 150 170

CONSUMPT ION (pounds per capita) 80 85 90 95 100

80 90 100 110 120

b 1971-72 (Choice), 1973-75 (AI,2 unspecified weight), 1976-79 (Al,2 over 1,000 pounds)

190 210 230 250 270

c To August 1979 only.

105 110 115 120 125

d Forecast.

Sources: Statistics Canada, Apparent Per-Capita Domestic Disappearance of Food in Canada. Catalogue No. 32-226, annual. Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Catalogue No. 62-010, quarterly. Agriculture Canada, Livestock Market Report, Market Information Service, Food Production and Marketing Branch, monthly.

A24j Institute Affairs J. Inst. Can. Sei. Teehnol. Aliment. VoL 13, No. 3, Juille! 1980

Page 4: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

beef, shoulder cuts, and stewing beef) rose more than those of higher-grade cuts. Cow slaughter, which supplies a large percentage of low-grade beef cuts, decreased more sharply than heifer and steer slaughter.

In 1980, supplies of beef are expected to continue to decrease. With decreased supplies, and most probably with little change in consumer demand, beef prices are expected to rise by IS to 17 percent.

Pork A substantial increase in beef prices during 1979 increased the demand for pork. This increase has kept retail pork prices firm, despite increased supplies. During the first nine months of 1979, retail pork prices averaged 2.2 percent above the 1978 average price level. Retail pork prices rose a little in the first quarter but because of the continuing pres­sure from increased supplies, decreased in the second quar­ter. They rose slightly in the third, despite a drop in hog prices.

During the first half of 1980, Canada's hog marketings are expected to exceed those in the corresponding period of 1979 by 10 to IS percent. Increased pork supplies are expected to move readily into both domestic and export markets. Dur­ing the first half of 1980, retail pork prices will probably be lower than those of a year earlier.

Poultry The overall increase of 14.5 percent in poultry prices during the first nine months of 1979 was due to an average increase of 11.0 percent in chicken prices and 24.2 percent in turkey prices. Most of the increase in poultry prices occurred in the first quarter.

Because of the higher prices for red meat and especially that for beef, the demand for poultry products remained strong throughout 1979. This increased demand kept poul­try prices up. Realizing the existence of a strong demand for poultry meat, marketing boards increased the quota for chicken by 12 percent and that for turkey by almost 18 percent in the early months of 1979. The effect of these increases was first felt in late June for chicken and in late July for turkeys.

The Canadian Chicken Marketing Agency has set 880 million pounds as the 1980 production target, which is about 5.0 percent higher than 1979 production.

Storage stocks of both broiler and heavy hen turkeys are expected to be fairly high at the end of 1979. The preliminary production level announced by the Canadian Turkey Mar­keting Agency for 1980 is set at 215 million pounds, a decrease from the 1979 level of 224 million pounds. This level will be reviewed when year-end stocks become known.

Retail poultry prices are expected to be 7 to 8 percent higher in 1980 than they were in 1979 because of increases in energy costs and interest rates. A substantial increase in feedgrain prices may push the increase in poultry prices above this level.

Dairy Products Retail dairy product prices rose 7.4 percent in the first nine months of 1979. The Canadian Dairy Commission (CDq and the provincial milk boards periodically allow increases in dairy product prices and in fluid milk prices in line with changes in the cost of production. Between January I and August I, 1979, the target returns price for industrial milk increased from $29.35 to $31.01 a hectolitre (5.7 percent).

Can. Inst. Food Sci. Technol. J. Vol. 13. No. 3. July 1980

The support price paid by the CDC to purchase butter was raised from $2.91 to $3.13 a kilogram (7.6 percent) and that to purchase skim milk powder from $1.72 to $1.84 a kilo­gram (7.0 percent). The effect of these increases was higher prices for all manufactured dairy products. Similarly, sev­eral provincial milk marketing boards raised prices of fluid milk in 1979. As a result of these increases, fluid milk prices rose 6.1 percent in the first nine months of 1979.

Since feed costs and the CPI constitute two major compo­nents of the formula used for revising the target returns, prices of all manufacturing dairy products will rise in 1980 after increases in these two formula components. Fluid milk prices generally move with industrial milk prices.

Eggs Egg prices rose 6.8 percent in the first nine months of 1979. Producer egg prices are determined by the Canadian Egg Marketing Agency in accordance with changes in costs of production. Retail egg prices are in turn affected by price changes at the farm level. Several increases in producer egg prices were allowed in 1979 as feedgrain costs escalated rapidly during the first seven months. The most notable increases were I cent a dozen in June, 2 cents in July, and I cent in August. Effective October IS, producer egg prices were increased by I cent a dozen to cover higher feed costs and interest rates.

The price outlook for eggs will depend primarily on changes in feedgrain prices. An increase of 5 to 6 percent can be expected in retail egg prices in 1980.

Fish Fish prices increased 9.1 percent in the first nine months of 1979 because of price increases for canned salmon and canned tuna. Domestic fish prices are sensitive to interna­tional demand and supply conditions. Since supply remains substantially stable over a short period, any changes in demand cause fish prices to fluctuate. International demand for salmon, especially in Japan, has been extremely high. Canadian processors have had to bid competitively for sal­mon that is to be canned for the domestic market and this action has pushed retail prices up.

Most of our need for tuna is usually met by imports from the United States, Japan, Fiji, and Puerto Rico. The prices of tuna landed in Canada for canning, as well as of canned tuna, therefore, are subject to fluctuations in the value of the Canadian dollar. I ncreases in processing and trans portation costs exerted some upward pressure on tuna prices in 1979.

The 1980 fish prices are expected to reflect higher energy and marketing costs. Moreover, demand for fish as a substi­tute for meat protein is expected to be reinforced as beef prices continue to escalate next year. As a result of these developments, fish prices are expected to increase 8 to 10 percent in 1980.

Cereal and Bakery Products Average retail prices for cereals and bakery products during the first nine months of 1979 were 15.2 percent above those of 1978. Cereal and bakery product prices rose rapidly dur­ing the first quarter, moderated greatly during the second, and have been relatively stable during recent months.

Most of the increase during the first quarter of 1979 was the result of higher domestic bread wheat prices, following an amendment to Section 20 of the CWB Act regulations. Between September 1973 and November 1978, these regula-

Institute Affairs/ A25

Page 5: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

tions fixed the price for domestic sales of wheat at $119.41 a tonne ($3.25 a bushel) regardless of the world wheat price. Changes in cereal and bakery product retail prices, during that period, reflected only changes in costs of other inputs, and processing and distribution costs. On December I, 1978, an amendment to the regulations empowered the CWB to make sales to the domestic market at the export price, within the range of $146.98 to $183.72 a tonne ($4 to $5 a bushel) for No. I CWRS 13.5 percent protein wheat in store at Thunder Bay, and to fix the price for periods of two months. Over the succeeding six months, world wheat prices were within the above range and the CWB offered wheat for sale on the domestic market at the export price. Since August 1979, however, world prices have remained above the ceiling price, and millers have paid the ceiling price of $183.72 a tonne ($5 a bushel).

Under the changes made to the CW B Regulations last fall, domestic prices for No. I amber durum wheat can range from $146.98 to $275.58 a tonne ($4 to $7.50 a bushel). Durum wheat was priced on a day-to-day basis before August I, 1979, and since then the domestic sales price has been fixed for periods of two months. World prices for durum wheat have been rising continually since January, and on October 23 were $274.65 a tonne ($7.47 a bushel), slightly below the ceiling for durum wheat. Pasta product prices have responded to this trend and have had the main responsibility for raising the c.ereal and bakery product index in the last few months.

World wheat production in 1979-80 is forecast at about 401 million tonnes, a 9-percent decrease from the 1978-79 record of 439 million. The 1979-80 world wheat utilization is forecast at 422 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 415 million in 1978-79. The higher utilization figure implies a reduction of 21 million tonnes in aggregate world stocks during 1979-80 and some upward pressure on the world price for wheat. Unless the price ceiling for domestic sales is changed, rising world prices will scarcely affect domestic cereal and bakery product prices in 1980.

Fruit and Vegetables Average retail prices for fruit and vegetables during the first nine months of 1979 were 10.2 percent higher than those for 1978. While most of the increase for fresh vegetables occurred in the first quarter, that for fresh fruit occurred during the second. Fresh fruit and vegetable prices decreased during the third quarter, the domestic production season.

During the winter months, Canada depends on imports for its supply of salad vegetables (lettuce, cucumbers, and tomatoes). These vegetables have a short growing season and are highly perishable; consequently, their prices fluctu­ate with the supply. Several factors contributed to disrup­tions in the supply of produce from the United States in the winter of 1979. A frost on January 3 in California damaged the crops so that supplies of salad vegetables reaching the retail market were small, and prices high. Moreover, farm workers' strikes in the Imperial Valley of California in J anu­ary and February 1979 disrupted the flow of some fresh vegetable supplies, thus contributing significantly to the 72.5- and 82.9-percent increases in the prices of lettuce and cucumbers, respectively, during the first three months of 1979.

Apples, bananas, and citrus fruit comprise the bulk of fresh fruit purchased during the winter months. The 9.6 and

A26/ Institute Affairs

15.3 percent increases in fresh fruit prices noted in the first and second quarters of 1979 resulted from reduced stocks of stored apples and poor supplies of citrus fruit and bananas.

A seasonal decrease in fresh fruit and vegetable prices occurred during the third quarter and was largely responsi­ble for the August decrease in the CPI-Food. Fresh vegeta­ble prices decreased 20.9 percent in August alone. The decrease in fresh fruit prices started with the harvest of tender tree fruit in August and continued into September with the arrival of early varieties of the 1979 apple crop.

On July 11, 1979, the results of the Multilateral Trade Negotiations were announced, and they contained some improved prospects for horticultural trade with the United States, Japan, and the EEC. Because these tariff changes will be phased in over seven years, starting in 1980, the imme­diate effect of these reductions on exports and prices will be marginal.

On October 24, 1979, a new tariff system was introduced for fresh and processed fruit and vegetables. Under the new structure, tariffs are eliminated for most fresh fruit and vegetables during the "off-season" period, that is, the period for which domestic products are not available. For the "in­season" period of domestic production, tariffs were changed from specific rates (cents a pound) to a specific rate with a minimum ad valorem component (percentage of value), thus increasing tariff protection for most domestic fresh produce during the "in-season" period. These changes in the tariff structure should reduce seasonal price fluctuations at the retail level.

During 1980 fresh produce prices will be influenced by the size of the 1979 apple and potato crops in Canada, the citrus crop in the United States, and banana supplies from Nicara­gua, Honduras, and other banana-producing countries. Canadian apple production for 1979 is estimated to be 3.3 percent smaller than the 1978 crop. The Delicious and Mcln­tosh varieties, which account for the greatest percentage of apple production in Canada, are 1.9 and 10.0 percent smaller. Lower production and higher storage costs may lead to higher retail apple prices during the winter months.

Orange supplies in the United States are increasing sea­sonally, with a record crop expected for 1979-80, an increase of 32 percent in California and 22 percent in Florida. Any decrease in retail orange prices during 1980, however, may be hampered by increased transportation costs.

Potato production for 1979 in Canada is expected to be at least 2,502 million kilograms (55.2 million cwt), slightly above the level of the bumper crops of the last two years. Lower transportation costs from the Maritimes to the east­ern United States (compared with those from the western United States) and the lower value of the Canadian dollar may increase export demand for table potatoes, and conse­quently push up domestic prices.

Fats and Oils The average retail prices for fats and oils for the first nine months in 1979 were 6.8 percent higher than those for 1978. The retail price of fats and oils depends on the price that manufacturers pay for crude vegetable oil, as well as the cost of inputs such as labor and energy. The cost of unrefined oil in Canada, in turn, depends mainly on the price of soybean oil in the Chicago market and the cost of importing oils.

Despite the large 1979 soybean crop, of perhaps 625,000 tonnes (compared with last year's 515,000 tonnes), during

J. Inst. Can. Sci. Technol. Aliment. Vol. 13, No. 3, Juillet 1980

Page 6: Outlook for Food Prices in 1980

the present crop year Canada will have to import about 40 percent of its soybean oil requirements, either as soybeans or as soybean oil, at world prices. Recently, world edible oil prices have been relatively strong mainly due to increased demand from some developing countries. Edible oil demand is not, however, expected to increase further in developing countries, and it will be somewhat depressed in the industrial countries due to the current economic recession. Moreover, 1979-80 world production of edible vegetable oils (41.5 mil­lion tonnes) is expected to be ample relative to world demand (40.5 million tonnes).

Since world edible oil prices are expected to decrease somewhat during this crop year, mainly higher energy and labor costs will be responsible for increases in processed fat and oil prices during 1980.

Coffee Although the average retail coffee prices of the first nine months in 1979 were slightly lower than those in 1978, significant price increases have been recorded since May 1979. World coffee prices have trended upward due to a resurgence in demand and reduced 1980-81 production prospects. The August average price was 47.4 percent greater than that for April.

World 1979-80 coffee production is forecast at about 80.0 million bags (I bag = 60 kg), about 3 million bags more than that for last season. World coffee prices are expected to remain stable during the coming months. After the earlier increase in world prices has been passed through, the out­look for retail prices in Canada, therefore, is for little change.

Sugar Average retail prices for sugar during the first nine months of 1979 were 9.8 percent greater than those for 1978.

World sugar production in 1979-80 is expected to range between 88 and 92 million tonnes, while the 1979-80 con­sumption is forecast at about 91 million tonnes. A reduction in world stocks may, therefore, be expected.

The landed price for raw sugar (Caribbean basis) in Mont­real peaked in October at 16.67 cents a pound, reflecting the seasonal increase, as well as factors such as V.S. dollar adjustments and speculation. The world stock reduction expected in 1979-80 might further strengthen prices in the coming months. Canadian wholesale and retail prices will reflect international price movements with some lag.

Marketing Margins What Are Marketing Margins? The marketing margin or price spread for a food item is the difference between the price per unit at one level of the marketing chain and the price of an equivalent quantity of that food item at another level (e.g., farm-to-retail, farm-to­wholesale, wholesale-to-retail). The farm-to-retail price spread, for instance, is the difference between the farm-gate price and the retail price. It covers marketing costs such as product assembly, transportation, processing, and distribu­tion, as well as the profits offirms involved in these activities.

Uses and Limitations of Price Spreads Price spreads provide a relatively concise way of comparing farm and retail prices over time and in different regions. They indicate, for instance, the percentage of the retail price

Can. Inst. Food SCt: Technol. J. VD!. 13. No. 3, July 1980

of a food item that goes to the producers and the various marketing sectors.

Price spreads may also serve as a performance indicator for the industry. They are helpful in identifying trouble spots in certain markets. For instance, are packers or retailers adjusting to changing market conditions and, if so, how fast are they doing so? Or, do some city markets show consis­tently higher price spreads than others? These performance differences can then be analyzed to determine whether they are related to regional differences in market structure. Sim­ilarly, price spreads are useful in explaining structural changes at various market levels.

Price spreads cannot, however, purport to be indicators of productivity, economic welfare, or profit. The main deter­minants of the farmer's welfare are the prices he receives and the net income he earns. This income mayor may not be closely related to changes in his share ofthe total retail price.

Price spreads are only one of several criteria to be used in studying the performance of the marketing system. In other words, they cannot be used as a substitute for market struc­ture analysis or of the food system's dynamics and their effect on performance.

Commodity Highlights Agriculture Canada now estimates price spreads for beef, chicken, turkey, and eggs and will soon report on price spreads for pork and dairy products. Farm-to-wholesale and wholesale-to-retail spreads of chicken, turkey, eggs, and beef have been calculated for five centers - Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Vancouver. 4 For each commod­ity, price spreads in three of the five centers are presented below. (The data for other centers are available on request.) The analysis covers the period from 1976 to September 1979. This period was chosen because it encompasses both rela­tively low and high food prices.

Beef Table I shows the breakdown of the retail beef dollar (based on an AI steer) in both cents per pound (retail basis) and in percentage terms for Toronto, Winnipeg, and Edmon­ton. For the sake of brevity, only Toronto spreads will be discussed.

Toronto producer prices,5 expr~sed on a retail basis, increased from 121 cents a pound in the third quarter of 1978 to 142 cents a pound in the third quarter of 1979. During the same period, wholesale prices (retail basis) increased from 135 to 157 cents a pound. By-product values (carcass basis) increased, from $12.43 per cwt a carcass to $17.4 7. This rise in by-product values is related to lower supplies of slaughter cattle and to the increased demand for beef by-products, particularly hides. Packers traditionally rely on sales of by­products to cover their killing costs. In fact, during the major part of the year, had it not been for higher-valued by­products, packers would have received negative margins. One can conclude that higher values for by-products have tempered wholesale carcass price increases to some extent.

In all the five centers analysed, the wholesale-to-retail spread increased substantially in 1979 over that in 1978, at least in absolute terms. Expressed as a percentage of the retail dollar, the retail share has remained remarkably con­stant over the four-year period in all centers except Toronto, where the retailer's share increased in both absolute and percentage terms. However, it should be noted that before 1978, Toronto retailers had been selling beef at compara­tively low margins (Table I).

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Table l. Price levels, price spreads, and market shares for beef.

Prices Price spreads" Shares of retail price

Producer- Wholesale-to- to-

City Year Quarter Producerb Wholesale Retail wholesale retail Producer Processor Retailer

retail basis cents per pound percent

Toronto 1976 80 93 122 13 29 66 10 24

1977 83 94 123 II 29 67 9 24

1978 116 128 180 12 52 64 7 29

1978 1st Quarter 94 106 137 12 32 68 9 23

2nd Quarter 122 134 187 12 55 65 6 29

3rd Quarter 121 135 196 14 60 62 7 31

4th Quarter 124 136 198 12 62 63 6 31

1979 1st Quarter 145 158 232 13 76 62 6 32

2nd Quarter 151 165 242 14 77 62 6 32

3rd Quarter 142 157 241 15 83 59 6 35

Winnipeg 1976 75 90 145 15 55 52 10 38

1977 76 91 150 15 59 51 10 39

1978 109 126 207 17 81 53 8 39

1978 1st Quarter 87 102 171 15 70 50 9 41

2nd Quarter 117 133 215 16 85 54 7 39 3rd Quarter 116 136 224 20 87 52 9 39 4th Quarter 119 135 218 16 83 55 7 38

1979 1st Quarter 136 158 244 22 88 55 9 36

2nd Quarter 145 166 263 21 97 55 8 37

3rd Quarter 139 161 261 22 lOO 53 8 39

Edmonton 1976 71 86 135 15 49 53 II 36

1977 72 88 140 16 52 52 II 37 1978 106 124 192 18 68 5] 9 36

1978 1st Quarter 85 lOO 157 15 58 53 10 37 2nd Quarter 117 133 197 16 65 58 8 34

3rd Quarter 113 135 206 22 70 55 II 34 4th Quarter 115 132 207 17 74 56 8 36

1979 1st Quarter 135 154 238 19 85 56 8 36 2nd Quarter 144 161 253 17 92 57 7 36 3rd Quarter 137 157 250 20 94 54 8 38

"Totals may not equal the sums of their parts because of rounding. bNet live price is based on Al steer less by-product value. Source: Food Markets Analysis Division, Policy, Planning and Economics Branch, Agriculture Canada.

Chicken. Table 2 illustrates the breakdown of the retail chicken dollar in cents per pound and in percentage shares for the three major population centers, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Though not presented, similar data are available for Winnipeg and Edmonton. The analysis in all five centers related to broiler chickens (2 to 4 pounds) on an eviscerated weight basis.

The average producer price in Toronto for the third quar­ter of 1979 was 53 cents a pound, one cent more than in the comparable quarter in 1978. The wholesale price at 61 cents a pound in the third quarter of 1979 was 15 cents below the third-quarter 1978 price of 76 cents a pound. In contrast, in the same period the prod ucer price in Vancouver increased 3 cents a pound and the wholesale price increased 7 cents a pound.

Part of the difference in pricing be ha vi or between eastern Canada and western Canada is due to the structure of the two markets. Consumers in eastern Canada prefer fresh to frozen chickens and in order to avoid continued build-up of frozen stock, processors in eastern Canada have been forced to sell fresh chicken at attractive prices. Consumers in west­ern Canada have typically been offered fresh chickens at a premium over the normally available frozen stock. (Some western centers like Vancouver are now in a transition stage from being primarily a frozen to primarily a fresh chicken market.) The threats of V.S. competition, at various times,

A28/ Institute Affairs

have reduced processors' margins, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. 6 These influences, among others, have com­bined to reduce processors' margins in Ontario from 24 cents a pound during the third quarter of 1978 to 8 cents a pound during the third quarter of 1979.

Chicken margins have increased both as an absolute and as a percentage of the retail dollar in Montreal, Toronto, and Winnipeg (Table 2). In Edmonton and Vancouver, absolute margins have increased, although in percentage terms of the retail dollar, they have not done so.

Turkey. Table 3 shows the breakdown of the retail turkey dollar in both cents per pound and as a percentage share of the retail dollar for Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Data similar to those in Table 3 were also calculated for Winnipeg and Edmonton. The analysis in all five centers was for frozen, unbasted hen turkeys, weighing 10 to 16 pounds (eviscerated weight basis).

The Montreal producer price ofturkey in the third quarter of 1979 at 66 cents a pound was 5 cents a pound above the corresponding producer price of a year earlier. During the same period, the wholesale price increased from 89 cents a pound to 98 cents a pound. The Montreal producer-to­wholesale spread began to increase in the third quarter of 1978 and peaked in the second quarter of 1979 before decreasing in the third quarter of 1979.

In the second half of 1978, wholesalers were able to com-

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Table 4. Price levels, price spreads, and market shares for Grade A medium eggs.

Prices Price spreads a Shares of retail price

Producer- Wholesale-to- to-

City Year Quarter Producer Wholesale Retail wholesale retail Producer Processor Retailer

cents per dozen percent Montreal 1976 65 84 86 19 2 76 22 2

1977 67 84 88 17 4 76 19 5 1978 66 85 89 19 4 74 21 5 1978 1st Quarter 64 82 86 18 4 74 21 5

2nd Quarter 67 85 89 18 4 75 20 5 3rd Quarter 68 86 91 18 5 74 20 6 4th Quarter 67 86 92 19 6 73 20 7

1979 1st Quarter 70 88 94 18 6 75 19 6 2nd Quarter 71 91 96 20 5 74 21 5 3rd Quarter 73 93 101 20 8 72 20 8

Toronto 1976 66 79 86 13 7 77 15 8 1977 63 79 80 16 I 79 20 I 1978 64 80 82 16 2 78 20 2 1978 1st Quarter 62 77 77 15 0 80 20 0

2nd Quarter 64 80 81 16 I 79 20 I 3rd Quarter 64 79 83 15 4 77 18 5 4th Quarter 64 81 85 17 4 75 20 5

1979 1st Quarter 68 84 85 16 I 80 19 I 2nd Quarter 69 85 86 16 I 80 19 I 3rd Quarter 71 88 94 17 6 76 18 6

Vancouver 1976 71 84 87 13 3 82 15 3 1977 70 84 89 14 5 78 16 6 1978 70 85 91 15 6 77 16 7 1978 1st Quarter 68 83 88 15 5 77 17 6

2nd Quarter 70 85 91 15 6 77 16 7 3rd Quarter 71 87 93 16 6 76 17 7 4th Quarter 71 87 93 16 6 76 17 7

1979 1st Quarter 74 90 96 16 6 77 17 6 2nd Quarter 75 92 97 17 5 77 18 5 3rd Quarter 78 94 102 16 8 76 16 8

aTotals may not equal the sums of their parts because of rounding. Source: Food Markets Analysis Division, Policy, Planning and Economics Branch, Agriculture Canada.

The sharp increase in food prices in 1973-74 can be traced largely to a combination of events: the major producing regions of the world had lower grain stocks, the grain and rice crops around the world were poor, and the U.S.S.R. decided to buy food and feedgrains on the world market. The effect on wheat and livestock feed prices was dramatic; for example, top-grade Canadian spring wheat almost tripled in price between the summers of 1972 and 1973 and soybean meal prices increased almost five-fold.

Supply problems continued through 1974-75 and the need to rebuild stocks kept grain and protein feed prices up. The high grain prices increased the cost of feeding livestock; the latter led to reduced supplies and higher prices for livestock products. During these years, supply problems occurred for other crops as well, notably sugar and coffee.

The sharp increase in feedgrain costs during 1972-75 caused a reduction in the number of cattle on farms that began in 1975, with the result that the beef market was flooded with breeding stock, and retail beef prices plum­meted during 1976. Low beef prices, combined with signifi­cantly reduced sugar prices, curtailed total food price increases during 1976.

From 1977-79, another set of factors, namely, deprecia­tion of the Canadian dollar, inclement weather and decreas­ing beef production, resulted in higher food prices.

Depreciation of the Canadian dollar in relation to other world currencies has had a significant effect on the cost of

Can. Inst. Food Sci. Technol. J. Vol. 13, No. 3, July 1980

purchasing imported food items such as fresh fruit and vegetables, sugar, tea, and coffee. It has also increased the export demand for commodities such as beef, pork, and apples, thus increasing the domestic prices of these items. Finally, it has increased the cost of imported inputs such as oil, machinery, and chemicals, thus increasing the produc­tion cost of most food items.

Poor weather conditions in the United States during 1977-79 significantly affected fresh fruit and vegetable prices, especially those of salad vegetables and citrus fruit. In Brazil, frosts in 1976-77 and during the summer of 1978 caused severe damage to coffee crops, resulting in reduced supply and high coffee prices.

By 1977, beef producers began to rebuild breeding herds, thereby reducing the number of cows and heifers slaugh­tered. Earlier reductions in the beef herd had decreased the steer and heifer supply. As a result, retail beef prices rose sharply in 1978 and 1979.

Food Prices and Income Increases in the cost of food have always been a concern for consumers since food represents a significant portion of family expenditures, and increases in food prices are highly visible because of the frequency of purchases.

During the period from 1970 to the second quarter of 1979, the index offood prices rose 133 percent. In compari­son, the average earnings per employee in the manufacturing

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FIGURE 3. PERCENT CHANGE IN PER-CAPITA PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME, AVERAGE EARNINGS PER EMPLOYEE IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX-FOOD, 1970 TO SECOND QUARTER OF 1979

FIGURE 4. PERCENT CHANGE IN THE ALL-ITEM CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, PER-CAPITA PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME AND REAL INCOME, 1970 TO SECOND QUARTE R OF 1979

~---------------------------+------------------------

PDI

WAGES

CPI- FOOD

PERCENT CHANGE

o 60 120 180 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Sources: Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue No. 13-201, annual. Statistics Canada, Employment Earnings and Hours, Catalogue No. 72-002, monthly. Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Catalogue ;\io. 62-010, quarterly.

industry rose 142 percent, and per-capita personal dispos­able income increased 180 percent (Figure 3). According to these figures, we can say that increases in wages and income have exceeded food price increases. But are we better off? By deflating personal disposable income by the CPI for all items, we can obtain a measure of change in the "real" income of Canadians, From Figure 4, therefore, we can see that "real" income increased 45.4 percent. In other words, the increase in income between 1970 and the second quarter of 1979 exceeded the increase in personal expenses by 45.4 percent. Therefore, although food prices have increased sig­nificantly throughout the 1970s, the increase in income has been more than sufficient to compensate for the higher prices.

International Food Price Comparison Canadian food prices have increased more slowly in the 1970s than those in many other nations. The percentage increase in food prices from 1975 through June 1979, was lower in Canada than in six of the thirteen countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Switzerland, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Japan, and the United States had smaller increases (Figure 5).

In food-importing countries, exchange rate movements have significantly affected price performance in the food sector. Since almost half of Canada's food imports come from the United States, deterioration of our dollar in terms of the U .S, dollar had a substantial effect on Canadian food prices in 1978. In the countries with an appreciating cur­rency, the cost of food imports decreased in their own cur­rencies. Exchange rate appreciation has probably been important in keeping food prices low for countries like Japan and Germany, which are major importers of Cana­dian and U .S. agricultural products.

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PDI

CPI-ALL ITEMS

REAL INCOME

PERCENT CHANGE

o 60 120 i I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

180 I I I

Sources: Statistics Canada, Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Catalogue No. 62-010, quarterly. Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue No. 13-201, annual.

The world price for crude petroleum is also a factor in food price movements in industrial countries. Price in­creases for energy are passed on to the retail level through increased production, transportation, and food-processing costs. The policy of the Canadian federal government has been to move domestic oil prices to world prices in stages but not so as to exceed average U .S. oil prices, The effect of this input cost has, therefore, been smaller in Canada than in most oil-importing countries, especially those in Europe.

Food Expenditure and Income Despite the significantly higher food prices of the 1970s, in 1978, Canadian consumers spent 4.2 percent less, on the average,8 of their personal disposable income on food than in 1958 (Figure 6).9 According to food expenditure survey data, which divides total food expenditures into two cate­gories according to whether the food was prepared at home or eaten away from home, an average Canadian family's expenditure shares for food prepared at home have de­creased dramatically (from 78,0 to 69,6 percent) between 1969 and 1978. Expenditure shares on food eaten away from home, on the other hand, have increased from 22.0 percent in 1969 to 30.4 percent in 1978 (Figure 7). The shift towards eating food away from home can be attributed to numerous demographic, economic, and lifestyle changes in Canada.

The most significant change in the last ten years has been in the proportion of female spouses employed full-time out­side the home, According to census data, in 1976,2,403,055 married women were employed in Canada, an increase of 33 percent since 1971,10 Married women now constitute ap­proximately two thirds of the female work-force. As employ­ed women want to be able to prepare meals quickly after work, the demand for convenience foods, for eating outside the home, and for take-out meals has increased significantly.

1. Inst. Can. Sci. Technol. Aliment. Vol. 13, No. 3, Juillet 1980

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FIGURE 5. PERCENT CHANGES IN FOOD PRICE INDEXES FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1975 - JUNE 1979

PERCENT CHANGE 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

SPAIN a

ITALY a

UNITED KINGDOM

AUSTRALlA a

FRANCE

SWEDEN

CANADA

UNITED STATES

JAPAN

BELGIUM

NETHERLANDS

GERMANY

SWITZERLAND

aTo May 1979. Source: Organization For Economic Cooperation and Development, Main Economic Indicators, Paris, August 1979.

FIGURE 6. SHARE OF PER-CAPITA PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME FOR FOOD EXPENDITURE, NON-FOOD EXPENDITURE AND SAVINGS, 1958 AND 1978

1958

FOOD EXPENDITURE

.\J,IJI - SAVINGS -

_ NON-FOOD EXPENDITURE

Source: Statistics Canada, National Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue No. 13-201, annual.

Can. Inst. Food Sci. Technol. J. Vo!. 13, No. 3, July 1980

1978

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FIGURE 7. EXPENDITURE SHARES OF PERSONAL INCOME AFTER TAX ON FOOD, 1969 -78

.~--FOOD PREPARED

AWAY FROM HOME la ,/ 11 r J r I ' ___ r -- -'

FOOD PREPARED AT HOME

~ ~

1969 1978

Sources: Statistics Canada, 1974 Urban Family Food Expenditure, Catalogue No. 62-542, Ottawa, June 1977. Statistics Canada, 1978 Urban Family Food Expenditure, Selected Tables, Ottawa, October 1979.

Meal patterns have also changed, partly through the length of time available for meal preparation and partly through the trend towards more casual living. Instead of eating three organized meals a day, many families snack at irregular hours, perhaps five times daily. Many snack foods have been specially designed for this purpose, with new varieties constantly being introduced.

Canadian consumers are better able to pay for the added convenience afforded by meals eaten away from home and by processed foods, as average family income and the number offamiIies comprising only one or two persons have been increasing. Between the 1971 and 1976 census years, the average Canadian family income rose 98 percent, 11 while the average family size fell from 3.7 to 3.5 persons l2 (the result of a decrease in the number of children per family from 1.8 to 1.6).13 In the coming years, family income is expected to continue to increase, while average family size is expected to decrease further.

Each of these trends has contributed to a greater demand for meals eaten outside the home, for services provided by take-out stores, and for added convenience in food products purchased for preparation at home. Despite the higher cost, this demand is expected to continue; however, growth in the market for foods eaten away from home will probably not reach the record-high levels achieved during the past 15 years. The main factors responsible for limiting growth in the food service industry will be higher energy costs, the

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intensity of competition among food service outlets, and the proliferation of ready-to-eat foods in retail stores.

In conclusion, while food prices have risen significantly throughout the 1970s, the increases have not been excessive compared with other economic or welfare indicators.

I U.S. Department of Agriculture. Foreign Agriculture Circular- Foreign Agriculture Service, Washington, D.C. September 1979,

2 Fifteen percent represent both direct and indirect consumption of energy in the food

system. This includes 2.7 percent for farm production, 4.8 percent for processing and packaging, 3.0 percent for transportation and distribution, and 4.5 percent for home preparation. (Research Branch. Agriculture Canada, Ottawa.)

.1 It is estimated that a IO.O-percent increase in oil prices will cause an immediate increase

of 0.44 percent in the food component of the CPI. Additional increases will also be expected as this initial increase induces higher wage settlements.

4 As no producer market exists for AI beef in Montreal and Vancouver, farm-to­wholesale spreads were not calculated for these two centers.

~ Producer prices are based on Al steer less by-product values. as calculated by Agricul­ture Canada.

/> Import controls on chicken have recently been negotiated with the United States. 7 More than 50 percent of turkey consumption normally takes place in the September­

December period. H In 1976. the highest income group, the fifth income quintile. allocated a much smaller

proportion of its income after tax, 15.5 percent, to food than did the lowest income group, which allocated 29 percent.

9 Figure 6 shows that in 1978 the personal saving rate was 12.2 percent. This high rate of

savings is not typicaL however. as in the years before 1972 the savings rate was approxi­mately 6.0 percent.

10 Statistics Canada, Labuur Furce Participatiun Rales hy Age and Sex and hy Marital

Starus and Sex, 1971 and 1976. Catalogue No. 94-804, October 1978.

11 Statistics Canada, Incomes afCanadian Families. 197J and 1976, Catalogue No. 99-726, November 1977.

12 Statistics Canada, Families by Size, 197J and 1976, Catalogue 1\"0. 93-821, June 1978. lJ Statistics Canada, Familr Compo.~itiun, 1971 and 1976, Catalogue No. 93-831, Sep­

tember 1978.

J. Ins!. Can. Sei. Technol. Aliment. Vo!. 13, No. 3, Juillet 1980


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