25 June 2013
Regional Refining Outlook
Special Presentation
Michael Dei-Michei
JBC Energy GmbH
June 2013
Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training
For ICE Market Forum
25 June 2013 Slide 2
Disclaimer
All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking
statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of
future expectations that are based on JBC Energy’s current expectations and assumptions and involve
known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ
materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among
other things statements expressing JBC Energy’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections
and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such
as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’,
‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, “forecast”, “predict”, “think”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and
similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are
expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.
Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking
statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries
undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new
information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from
those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation.
Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC
Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable
for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC’s third party sources
provide data to JBC on an “as-is” basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to
reliance on or use of their data by any party.
25 June 2013
Overview
Slide 3
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
2007 Stock 2007 Stock
Reforming Other Conversion
Coking Hydrocracking
Cat Cracking CDU Capacity
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
2007 - 2017 Additions 2007 -2017 Additions
Title [unit]Global CDU & Conversion Additions ['000 b/d]
Slide 3
Demand growth of
main products
(gasoline, gas oil, jet,
naphtha, fuel oil)
25 June 2013 Slide 4
Overview
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ytd
Asia
NWE
USGC
JBC Energy Margins by Region [$/bbl]
Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts data
JBC Energy margins are based on an average of
selected margin calculations. The margins are derived
from three different set-ups, two crude baskets and
three yield patterns for each region .
25 June 2013 Slide 5
US
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Last Avg 08-12
2013 2012
2011 2010
2009 Avg 03-07
US Refinery Utilisation - 4-Week Average [%]
Source: EIA
25 June 2013 Slide 6
US
Approximate US Crude Price Change Over Last 6 Months (May vs. Nov) [$/bbl]
PADD II & IVPADD V
PADD III
PADD I
WCSNovember vs May: +$15
Source: JBC Energy calculations based on Platts, Reuters
WTI November vs May: +$9
SyncrudeNovember vs May: +$14
MarsNovember vs May: -$3
Bonny Light (CIF)November vs May: -$4
ANSNovember vs May: no
change
ESPO (CIF)November vs May: - $6
BakkenNovember vs May: +$11
WTSNovember vs May: +$19
LLSNovember vs May: -$1
Bakken vs ESPO: -$12Bakken vs Bonny
Light: -$15
Bakken vs LLS: -$13
25 June 2013 Slide 7
US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Light Distillates Middle Distallates Fuel Oil Coke/Asphalt
PADD3 Blend
Light/Heavy Blend
Dumbbell Effect - PADD3 Average Refining Yields [%]
Light/Heavy blend
consists of equal
shares of Eagle Ford
50 , Eagle Ford 40 ,
Bakken, Maya, Merey
and WCS
Slide 7
25 June 2013
US
Slide 8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
Monthly Utilisation Rate
Monthly Utilisation Rate
Utilisation Rates of USGC Refineries 1985-2013 [%; °API]
Average Gravity of Crude Intake [ API]
CD
U U
tilis
ati
on
[%
]
Source: JBC Energy, EIA
Utilisation by light product outputUtilisation by secondary capacity
Slide 8
25 June 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000Total Products Net-Imports - Right Scale
Total Products Exports
Total Products Imports
US Products Trade Flows ['000 b/d]
Source: EIA
Slide 9
US
Slide 9
25 June 2013 Slide 10
US / Global
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Canada & Mexico Central & South America Europe
Asia Africa Middle East
FSU East U.S. Crude Production
Y-o-Y Changes to U.S. Crude Oil Imports & Production ['000 b/d]
Source: EIA, JBC Energy calculations
February & March 2013 figures are JBC
Estimates based on weekly EIA data
Slide 10
25 June 2013 Slide 11
Europe
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13
Bonny Light vs Arab Extra Light
Bonny Light vs Forties
Bonny Light vs Urals NWE
Bonny Light vs Flotta
Bonny Light Incentive in Medium Setup w. Complex Basket in NWE [$/bbl]
Source: JBC Energy calculation based on H/Comet and Platts, Galbraith's, CR Weber
The incentive to run a crude is
calculated by adding an extra 5% to the
complex European crude basket
25 June 2013 Slide 12
Europe / Global
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
May 09 Nov 09 May 10 Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13
NWE Med
Asia USGC
Simple vs Complex Baseloads [$/bbl]
Source: JBC Energy using Platts data
Source: JBC Energy based on Platts data
25 June 2013 Slide 13
Europe
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13
Total Products Net-Imports
US Exports to Europe
US Imports from Europe
US Total Product Trade with Europe ['000 b/d]
Source: EIAThe chart displays exports of all products
?
25 June 2013
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Crude NGLs Other Feedstocks
OECD Europe - Refinery Intake by Stream ['000 b/d]
Source: IEA
Slide 14
Europe
25 June 2013 Slide 15
Europe / Global
Slide 15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
France Spain
Ukraine Australia
Pakistan Indonesia
Mexico South Africa
Chile
Refinery Utilisation Rates vs. Total Product Net-Imports in Various Countries
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Product Net-Imports ['000 b/d]Refinery Utilisation [%]
25 June 2013 Slide 16
Asia / Global
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia
Middle East Africa North America Central & South America
2012
2013
2014
2017
Middle Eastern Gasoline Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]
25 June 2013 Slide 17
Asia / Global
0
50
100
150
200
250
Europe FSU East OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia
Middle East Africa North America Central & South America
2012
2013
2014
2017
Middle Eastern Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]
25 June 2013 Slide 18
Asia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Europe North America C&S America
Africa Middle East FSU East
Unknown OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia
South Korean Gas Oil/Diesel Exports by Destination ['000 b/d]
Source: IEA
Slide 18
25 June 2013 Slide 19
Asia
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Gasoline Gas Oil/Diesel
Gasoline - 12 Month Mov. Avg. Gas Oil/Diesel - 12 Month Mov. Avg.
Asian Demand Growth Indicator ['000 b/d]
Source: IEA, official statistics, JODI, JBC Energy calculations
Figures between Mar-13 to Jun-13 are JBC Energy estimates
Data represent over 80% of Asian demand in each product
25 June 2013 Slide 20
Conclusions
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rest of World
New Exporters*
New Exporters: • The USA
• China, India & South Korea• Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE
Gasoline, Jet/Kero & Gas Oil/Diesel Net Importers ['000 b/d]
25 June 2013 Slide 21
Conclusions
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Other Middle East & Africa Qatar, Saudi Arabia & UAE Other Asia
China, India & South Korea Other America United States
Americas Asia Mideast & Africa
Europe FSU East
Key Transport Fuel Importers & Exporters ['000 b/d]
Included are Imports of:• gasoline
• jet/kero• gas oil/diesel
25 June 2013 Slide 22
Conclusions
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Total Product Imports (Gasoline + Jet/Kero + Gas Oil/Diesel)
Total Crude Imports - right scale
Total Global Imports: Crude + Products ['000 b/d]
25 June 2013 Slide 23
Conclusions
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA
NORTH AMERICA
AFRICA
MIDDLE EAST
ASIA
FSU EAST
EUROPE
Yearly Crude Intake Change by Region ['000 b/d]
25 June 2013 Slide 24
Conclusions
70.00%
72.00%
74.00%
76.00%
78.00%
80.00%
82.00%
84.00%
86.00%
88.00%
90.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OECD Europe Asia Middle East
North America C&S America
Regional Refinery Utilisation [%]
25 June 2013 Slide 25
Thank You!
www.jbcenergy.com
Research – Energy Studies – Consulting – Training