Output and Expenditure in the Short Run Aggregate expenditure (AE) The total amount of spending on the economy’s output: Aggregate Expenditure • Consumption (C) • Planned Investment (I) • Government Purchases of Goods + Services (G) • Net Exports (NX) Actual investment in a year can differ from planned investment: businesses wind up “investing” in unintended inventories if sales fall short of what they expected AE = C + I + G + NX Macroeconomic Equilibrium: Aggregate Expenditure = Output (Y) AE = C + I + G + NX = Y
Transcript
Output and Expenditure in the Short Run
Aggregate expenditure (AE) The total amount of spending on the economy’s output:
Aggregate Expenditure
• Consumption (C)
• Planned Investment (I)
• Government Purchases of Goods + Services (G)
• Net Exports (NX)
Actual investment in a year can differ from planned investment: businesses wind up “investing” in unintended inventories if sales fall short of what they expected
Aggregate expenditure isless than GDP inventories rise
GDP and employmentdecrease.
Aggregate Expenditure isgreater than GDP inventories fall
GDP and employmentincrease.
Actual investment in a year can differ from planned investment: businesses “invest” in unintended inventories if sales fall short of what they expected
Expenditure CategoryReal Expenditure
(billions of 2005 dollars)
Consumption $9,221
Planned investment 1,715
Government purchases 2,557
Net exports −422
Components of Real Aggregate Expenditure, 2010
Real Consumption
Consumption follows a smooth, upward trend, interrupted only infrequently by brief recessions.
Consumption
• Current disposable income
• Household wealth: Assets minus liabilities
Including equity in owner occupied houses?
The most important variables that determine the level of C:
Because many macroeconomic variables move together, economists sometimes have difficulty determining whether movements in one are causing movements in another.
Do Changes in Housing Wealth Affect Consumption Spending?
Housing wealth equals the market value of houses minus the value of loans people have taken out to pay for the houses = Homeowner Equity
The figure shows the S&P/Case-Shiller index of housing prices, which represents changes in the prices of single-family homes.
• Current disposable income
• Household wealth: Assets minus liabilities
Including equity in owner occupied houses?
• Expected future income
People try to keep their consumption fairly steady from year-to-year
tie consumption to “permanent income” and save for a rainy day
• The price level
Higher price level reduces real value of monetary wealth
• The interest rate
High interest rate discourages spending on credit/encourages saving
• New, gotta-have styles and products
The most important variables that determine the level of C:
The most important determinant of consumption is:
a. Current disposable income
b. Household wealth.
c. Expected future income.
d. The price level and the interest rate.
The Relationship between Consumption and Income, 1960–2010
The Slope of the Consumption Function is the Marginal Propensity to Consume
MPC = Change in Consumption in Response to a Change in Disposable Income
MPC = ΔConsumption/ΔDisposable Income = ΔC/ΔYD
When disposable income changes, ΔC = MPC x ΔYD
The Consumption Function
For a textbook economy:
The Relationship between Consumption and National Income
when net taxes are constant ΔYD = ΔNI
Which of the following is correct?
a. Disposable income is equal to national income plus government transfer payments minus taxes.
b. Taxes minus Government transfer payments equal net taxes.
c. Disposable income = National income – Net taxes.
d. All of the above.
National income = Consumption + Saving + Net Taxes
Change in NI = Change in consumption + Change in saving + Change in taxes
Y = C + S + T
Income, Consumption, and Saving
TSCY If taxes are always a constant amount, ΔT = 0
ΔY = ΔC + ΔS
1 = MPC + MPS
National Income and Real GDP (Y)
Consumption(C)
Saving(S)
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)
$9,000 $8,000— —
10,000 8,600
11,000 9,200
12,000 9,800
13,000 10,400
Calculating the Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Marginal Propensity to SaveFill in the blanks in the following table. For simplicity, assume that taxes are zero.
Calculating the Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Marginal Propensity to Save
Fill in the blanks in the following table. For simplicity, assume that taxes are zero.
Fill in the table.
0.6
For example, to calculate the value of the MPC in the second row, we have:
6.0000,1$
600$
000,9$000,10$
000,8$600,8$
Y
CMPC
To calculate the value of the MPS in the second row, we have:
4.0000,1$
400$
000,9$000,10$
000,1$400,1$
Y
SMPS
0.4
National Income and Real GDP (Y)
Consumption(C)
Saving(S)
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)
$9,000 $8,000 — —
10,000 8,600
11,000 9,200
12,000 9,800
13,000 10,400
$1,000
1,400
1,800
2,200
2,600
Calculating the Marginal Propensity to Consume and the Marginal Propensity to Save
Show that the MPC plus the MPS equals 1.At every level of national income, the MPC is 0.6 and the MPS is 0.4. Therefore, the MPC plus the MPS is always equal to 1.
National Income and Real GDP (Y)
Consumption(C)
Saving(S)
Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC)
Marginal Propensity to Save (MPS)
$9,000 $8,000 — —
10,000 8,600
11,000 9,200
12,000 9,800
13,000 10,400
$1,000
1,400
1,800
2,200
2,600
0.6 0.4
0.6 0.4
0.6 0.4
Fill in the blanks in the following table. For simplicity, assume that taxes are zero.
Show that the MPC plus the MPS equals 1.
0.6
If the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 0.9, how much additional consumption will result from an increase of $80 billion of disposable income?
a. $88.89 billion.
b. $800 billion.
c. $72 billion.
d. None of the above.
Real Investment
Planned Investment
Investment is subject to larger changes than is consumption.
Investment declined significantly during the recessions of 1980, 1981–1982, 1990–1991, 2001, and 2007–2009.
Note: The values are quarterly data, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate.
• Expectations of future profitability
Waves of optimism and pessimism
• Major technology changes: new products & processes
• The interest rate
• Taxes
• Cash flow Retained earnings for financing investment
• Current capacity utilization
The most important variables that determine the level of investment:
The behavior of consumption and investment over time can be described as follows:
a. Investment follows a smooth, upward trend, but consumption is highly volatile.
b. Consumption follows a smooth, upward trend, but investment is subject to significant fluctuations.
c. Both consumption and investment fluctuate significantly over time.
d. Neither consumption nor investment fluctuate significantly over time.
Real Government Purchases
Government Purchases (including State and Local) = G
Government purchases grew steadily for most of the 1979–2011 period, with the exception of the early 1990s, when concern about the federal budget deficit caused real government purchases to fall for three years, beginning in 1992 and in recent recession when State and Local expenditures declined.
Real Net Exports
Net exports were negative in most years between 1979 and 2011.
Net exports have usually increased when the U.S. economy is in recession and decreased when the U.S. economy is expanding, although they fell during most of the 2001 recession.Note: The values are quarterly data, seasonally adjusted at an annual rate.
• The price level in the United States relative to the price levels in other countries
• The growth rate of GDP in the United States relative to the growth rates of GDP in other countries
• The exchange rate between the dollar and other currencies
Net Exports (NX)
The most important variables that determine the level of net exports:
If inflation in the United States is lower than inflation in other countries, then U.S. exports ________ and U.S. imports ________, which _________ net exports.
a. increase; increase; decreases
b. increase; decrease; increases
c. decrease; increase; increases
d. decrease; increase; decreases
The Relationship between Planned Aggregate Expenditure and GDP on a 45°-Line Diagram
c0, I, G, T, and NX are autonomous—they do not depend on Y
Y = c0 + MPC x Y – MPC x T + I + G + NX
(1 – MPC) x Y = c0 + I + G – MPC x T + NX
Y = [1/(1 – MPC)] x [c0 + I + G – MPC x T + NX]
Find equilibrium GDP using the following macroeconomic model:
C = 1000 + 0.75Y Consumption function
I = 500 Investment function
G = 600 Government spending function
NX = −300 Net export function
Y = C + I + G + NX Equilibrium condition
a. 800
b. 1800
c. 2400
d. 7200
Summarizing the Multiplier Effect
1 The multiplier effect occurs both when autonomous expenditure increases and when it decreases.
2 The multiplier effect makes the economy more sensitive to changes in autonomous expenditure than it would otherwise be.
3 The larger the MPC, the larger the value of the multiplier.
4 The formula for the multiplier, 1/(1 − MPC), is oversimplified because it ignores some real-world complications, such as the effect that an increasing GDP can have on taxes, imports, prices and interest rates.
Using the Multiplier FormulaUse the information in the table to answer the following questions:
Real GDP (Y)
Consumption(C)
Planned Investment
(I)
Government Purchases
(G)Net Exports
(NX)
$8,000 $6,900 $1,000 $1,000 −$500
9,000 7,700 1,000 1,000 −500
10,000 8,500 1,000 1,000 −500
11,000 9,300 1,000 1,000 −500
12,000 10,100 1,000 1,000 −500
Note: The values are in billions of 2005 dollars.
a. What is the equilibrium level of real GDP?
b. What is the MPC?
c. If government purchases increase by $200 billion, what will be the new equilibrium level of real GDP? Use the multiplier formula to determine your answer.
Using the Multiplier Formula
Determine equilibrium real GDP.
We can find macroeconomic equilibrium by calculating the level of planned aggregate expenditure for each level of real GDP.
We can see that macroeconomic equilibrium will occur when real GDP equals $10,000 billion.
Calculate the MPC. Y
CMPC
In this case: 8.0billion $1,000
billion $800MPC
Use the information in the table to answer the following questions:
Real GDP (Y)
Consumption(C)
Planned Investment
(I)
Government Purchases
(G)Net Exports
(NX)
$8,000 $6,900 $1,000 $1,000 −$500
9,000 7,700 1,000 1,000 −500
10,000 8,500 1,000 1,000 −500
11,000 9,300 1,000 1,000 −500
12,000 10,100 1,000 1,000 −500
Note: The values are in billions of 2005 dollars.
Planned Aggregate
Expenditure(AE)
$8,400
9,200
10,000
10,800
11,600
Using the Multiplier Formula
So:
Change in equilibrium real GDP = Change in autonomous expenditure × 5
Or:
Change in equilibrium real GDP = $200 billion × 5 = $1,000 billion
Therefore:
New level of equilibrium GDP = $10,000 billion + $1,000 billion = $11,000 billion
Use the multiplier formula to calculate the new equilibrium level of real GDP.
We could find the new level of equilibrium real GDP by constructing a new table with government purchases increased from $1,000 billion to $1,200 billion.
But the multiplier allows us to calculate the answer directly.
In this case:5
8.01
1
1
1Multiplier
MPC
The Paradox of Thrift
In discussing the aggregate expenditure model, John Maynard Keynes argued that if many households decide at the same time to increase their saving and reduce their spending, they may make themselves worse off by causing aggregate expenditure to fall, thereby pushing the economy into a recession.
The lower incomes in the recession might mean that total saving does not increase, despite the attempts by many individuals to increase their own saving.
Keynes referred to this outcome as the paradox of thrift because what appears to be something favorable to the long-run performance of the economy might be counterproductive in the short run.
Aggregate Demand: The Relation Between Price and Aggregate Expenditure
Increases in the price level cause aggregate expenditure to fall, and decreases in the price level cause aggregate expenditure to rise.
There are three main reasons for this inverse relationship between changes in the price level and changes in aggregate expenditure:
• A rising price level decreases Consumption by decreasing the real value of household wealth
• International competition: If the price level in the United States rises relative to the price levels in other countries, U.S. exports will become relatively more expensive, and foreign imports will become relatively less expensive, causing Net Exports to fall.
• Interest rate effect: When prices rise, firms and households need more money to finance buying and selling. If the central bank does not increase the money supply, the result will be an increase in the interest rate, which causes Investment spending to fall. Rising interest rates may also lead to dollar appreciation: U.S. exports will become relatively more expensive, and foreign imports will become relatively less expensive, causing Net Exports to fall yet more.
The Aggregate Demand Curve
The Effect of a Change in the Price Level on Real GDP
Aggregate demand curve A curve that shows the relationship between the price level and the level of planned aggregate expenditure, holding constant all other factors that affect aggregate expenditure.
Aggregate demand curve
Aggregate expenditure (AE)
Aggregate expenditure model
Autonomous expenditure
Cash flow
Consumption function
Inventories
K e y T e r m s
Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)
Marginal propensity to save (MPS)
Multiplier
Multiplier effect
The Algebra of Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Appendix
)(YMPCCC
1I
GG
XNNX
NXGICY
1 Consumption function
2 Planned investment function
3 Government spending function
4 Net export function
5 Equilibrium condition
The Algebra of Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Appendix
( )
1
1
Y C MPC(Y) I G NX
Y - MPC(Y) C I G NX
Y MPC C I G NX
C I G NXY
MPC
Or,
Or,
Or,
The letters with bars over them represent fixed, or autonomous, values. So, represents autonomous consumption, which had a value of 1,000 in our original example. Now, solving for equilibrium, we get:
C
The Algebra of Macroeconomic Equilibrium
Appendix
Remember that is the multiplier. Therefore an alternative
expression for equilibrium GDP is:
1
1 MPC
Equilibrium GDP = Autonomous expenditure x Multiplier
