REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE

AGRICULTURE TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Output Diversification, Input Intensification and Efficiency: Evidence from Tajikistan

Bingxin YuEdina Mwangi

Agriculture in Tajikistan

• Agriculture major component of Tajik economy: 26% GDP, 39% tax revenues• Agricultural imports > agricultural exports• High poverty, mostly rural: national 46.7%, rural 50.8% in 2009

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)

Total Income Farm Income

2007 Monthly Income

5010

015

020

025

030

0

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)

Total Income Farm Income

2003 Monthly Income

Agricultural reform• Land reform to increase productivity and income• 1992 divide collective farm into dehkan farms• 1995/1997 Presidential Decrees: transferred 75,000 ha from farm

enterprise to hh plots• 2002/09 Dehkan farm Law/Land code• 2007 Freedom to Farm • 2012 Agrarian Reform Programme: development of a productive

and profitable agriculture• Poverty Reduction Strategy 2010-12: increase domestic production

and productivity

Farm structure

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000 Cropland by farm type ('000 ha)

HH Dehkan Enterprise

Share in Taj. (%) HH plot Dehkan

farm Enterprise

Ag. Land 6 67 27

Arable land 23 59 18

Ag. Output 62 30 8

Crop 50 35 14

Livestock 94 3 3

Avg. size 0.3 ha 5-7 ha 354 ha

Source: Lerman (2012), Lerman and Sedik (2009).

Productivity by farm type

• Productivity growth key to output growth • Household plots the leading contributor

TFP growth (%)

Productivity in growth (%)

Land productivity (Somoni/ha)

Contribution to agri. growth (%)

HH plots 8.6 52 17.0 58Dehkan farms 0.0 3 5.47 35

Enterprises 3.0 22 4.39 7

Tajikistan 6.7 45 7.88 100

Source: Lerman (2012), Lerman and Sedik (2009).

020

4060

8010

0

2005 2011

HH Dehkan Enterprise HH Dehkan Enterprise

Wheat Cotton Potatoes Vegetables Other

Crop diversity by farm typeArea (%)

Source:Tajstat.

2011 Area (%) HH Dehkan Enterprise All

Wheat 31 54 14 100

Cotton 0 77 23 100

Potato 56 35 8 100

Vegetable 57 35 8 100

Other 19 60 21 100

All crops 23 59 18 100

Research question• Food security led to land reallocation to food crops: wheat and

potato• Small household plots increases high value crops: horticulture• Agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction driven by non-cotton

crops and livestock (WB 2012)• Food Security Program: diversification and efficiency• Agricultural Reform: diversification

Question 1: Determinants of HH efficiencyQuestion 2: Diversify product mix? Horticulture for income growth?

Methodology• Focus on household agricultural behavior• Output distance function to measure performance and its

sources• Quantify multi-output, multi–input technology • Flexible functional form of translog• Examine determinants of technical efficiency like

diversification and market participation

Data• Tajikistan Living Standards

Survey (TLSS) 2003 & 2007• Nationally representative • 221-229,000 ha• 20-25% of national crop land• Detailed agri. production

info• Assets, infrastructure,

migration, credit, income2003 2007

-

50

100

150

200

250

Other

Dacha

Ind. Dekhan

Remote plot/presi-dential plot

HH plot/garden

000

Ha

Land holding by tenure type

No. of

HH

% of crop land

Total HH area (Ha)

HH owned

Rent in (Ha) HH plot

Pres. plot

Indiv. Dehkan

Total owned

HH Plot only 1,531 28 0.14 0.12

-

- 0.12 0.02

HH/PP 651 26 0.31 0.08 0.16 - 0.23 0.08

HH/ID 685 46 0.96 0.10 0.04 0.36 0.51 0.45

Total 2,867 100 0.34 0.10 0.06 0.08 0.22 0.12

• Rent in from local government, sovkhoz or kolkhoz

Land distribution by tenure type0

24

6D

en

sity

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1Total Operating Area (Ha)

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Land allocation by crop

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Wheat Potato Fruit VegetableOther

Share of crop sale by tenure type0

51

01

52

0

wheat potatoes fruits vegetables

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Input use by tenure type

HH plot only

HH/PP HH/ID

Area (Ha) 0.16 0.34 0.84

HH reporting input use (%)

Fertilizer 37 53 53 Hired labor 2 10 14

Machinery 8 28 44

Manure 11 13 23 Agri. chemicals 1 1 2

2007

Fertilizer SeedMachine/fuel ManureOther

Input cost

Fertilizer intensity

010

020

030

040

0kg

/ha

0 20 40 60 80 100

Share of wheat HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

010

020

030

040

0kg

/ha

0 20 40 60 80 100

Share of horticulture HH Plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Land productivity

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

som

oni/h

a

0 20 40 60 80 100

Share of wheat HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Wheat

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

som

oni/h

a

0 20 40 60 80 100

Share of horticulture HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Horticulture

Estimation• Outputs: wheat, potato, vegetable, fruits, other crops• Inputs: Labor, land, seed, fertilizer• Determinants of efficiency: o Yield enhancing technology (irrigation, machinery)o Land tenure (type, rental, fragmentation)o Infrastructure and services (market, credit, extension)o Farm decision (commercialization, diversification)o hh characteristics

Efficiency and land size

0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5 0.5-0.6 0.6-0.7 0.7-10.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

No. of HH HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

Area (Ha)

Effici

ency

Determinants of efficiency

AllHH plot

only HH /PP HH/ IDExtension 0.307 0.529

Area under horticulture (%) 0.005 0.018 0.028

Commercialization (sale %)

Wheat 0.015

Potato

Vegetable 0.050 0.166 0.016 0.016

Fruit 0.015 0.009 0.014

HH size 0.041 0.059 0.114

Migration 0.291

Determinants of efficiency

AllHH plot

only HH /PP HH/ IDExtension 0.307 0.529

Area under horticulture (%) 0.005 0.018 0.028

Commercialization (sale %)

Wheat 0.015

Potato

Vegetable 0.050 0.166 0.016 0.016

Fruit 0.015 0.009 0.014

HH size 0.041 0.059 0.114

Migration 0.291

Regional variation

HH plot

only HH/PP HH/ID Total

Kahtlon 0.65 0.69 0.70 0.66

RRS 0.60 0.69 0.67 0.62

Sogd 0.62 0.66 0.71 0.64

GBAO 0.56 0.54 0.67 0.61

Dushanbe 0.53 0.76 0.55

Total 0.63 0.68 0.69 0.64

• Considerable room to improve performance

• Larger plot of HH/PP and HH/ID more efficient in using current input mix

Diversification improves performance0

.2.4

.6.8

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

No Yes No Yes No Yes

Efficiency (vegetable)

01,

000

2,00

03,

000

4,00

05,

000

som

oni/h

aHH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

No Yes No Yes No Yes

Land productivity (vegetable)

Limited benefit from wheat farming

01,

000

2,00

03,

000

4,00

0so

mon

i/ha

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

No Yes No Yes No Yes

Land productivity (wheat)

0.2

.4.6

.8

HH plot only HH/PP HH/ID

No Yes No Yes No Yes

Efficiency (wheat)

Conclusion

• Overall, efficiency of HH agricultural production is low• More extension efforts are needed for household plots• There are potential efficiency gains from increasing land

size for smallholders: • Policies to facilitate land rentals may be useful

• Diversification to horticulture improves productivity, but involves a tradeoff between policy objectives

• Crop commercialization, especially vegetable and fruits, leads to increased efficiency and agricultural productivity

Thank you!