Over-population Disad (Tournament Version)

8/10/2019 Over-population Disad (Tournament Version)

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UNIQUENESS....................................................................................................................4

POP INCREASING NOW..............................................................................................4

POP INCREASING NOW..............................................................................................5POP INCREASING NOW..............................................................................................6

POP INCREASING NOW..............................................................................................7

POP INCREASING NOW..............................................................................................8O-POP INCREASING NOW..........................................................................................9

SUB-SARAHAN AFRICA POP INCREASING NOW................................................10

NOW IS THE KEY TIME FOR O-POP........................................................................11NOW IS THE KEY TIME FOR O-POP.......................................................................1

O-POP !INKS...................................................................................................................1"

PUB!IC HEA!TH ASSISTANCE................................................................................1"

HIGH FERTI!ITY RATES...........................................................................................14HIGH FERTI!ITY RATES...........................................................................................15

CHECMICA! FERTI!I#ERS.......................................................................................16

ECONOMIC $E%E!OPMENT...................................................................................17

AFRICAN CU!TURE...................................................................................................18AFRICAN CU!TURE...................................................................................................19

PO%ERTY.....................................................................................................................0HEA!TH CARE............................................................................................................1

FOO$ AI$& FOREIGN AI$.........................................................................................

IMMIGRATION............................................................................................................"$EATH CHECKS.............................................................................................................4

$ISEASE & AI$S...........................................................................................................4

FAMINE........................................................................................................................5

A!!OWING PEOP!E $O $IE CHECKS O-POP......................................................6O-POP BA$ IMPACTS.....................................................................................................7

WAR..............................................................................................................................7ECONOMY...................................................................................................................8C!IMATE CHANGE....................................................................................................9

RESOURCE WARS......................................................................................................"0

RESOURCE SCARCITY.............................................................................................."1E'TINCTION..............................................................................................................."

E'TINCTION...............................................................................................................""

E'TINCTION..............................................................................................................."4

CU!TURA! GENOCI$E............................................................................................."5ECO!OGICA! $ESTRUCTION................................................................................."6

PO%ERTY....................................................................................................................."7

EN%IRONMENT.........................................................................................................."8EN%IRONMENT.........................................................................................................."9

EN%IRONMENT..........................................................................................................40

EN%IRONMENT..........................................................................................................41BIO-$............................................................................................................................4

$EFORESTATION.......................................................................................................4"

(ACKS THE POOR.......................................................................................................45

$ESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE......................................................................46


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%IO!ENCE...................................................................................................................47

STAR%ATION...............................................................................................................48

STAR%ATION...............................................................................................................49STAR%ATION...............................................................................................................50

STAR%ATION...............................................................................................................51

STAR%ATION...............................................................................................................5FOO$ SHORTAGES....................................................................................................5"

%IO!ENCE&$ISEASE..................................................................................................54

FAMINE........................................................................................................................55FAMINE........................................................................................................................56

MASS $EATH..............................................................................................................57

WATER..........................................................................................................................58

WATER..........................................................................................................................59PRE%ENTS EFFECTI%E $ISEASE & AI$S PRE%ENTION)....................................60

CU!TURA! FRIEN$!INESS......................................................................................61

NUTRITIONA! SECURITY........................................................................................6

SEA !E%E! RISE.........................................................................................................6"!AN$............................................................................................................................64

!AN$............................................................................................................................65MA!NUTRITION.........................................................................................................66

AUTHORITARIANISM...............................................................................................67

IMMIGRATION............................................................................................................68O-POP SO!%ENCY..........................................................................................................69

IN$IRECT POPU!ATION CONTRO! SO!%ES........................................................69

P!ANNE$ CO!!APSE GOO$- SO!%ES FOR SPIRITUA! SOCIETY *GO$+......70

#ERO POPU!ATION GROWTH.................................................................................71NE'T 100 YEARS KEY...............................................................................................7

INTERNATIONA! COOPERATION K&T SO!%E O-POP.........................................7"

US MO$E!ING KEY...................................................................................................74A......................................................................................................................................75

AT TECH SO!%ES O-POP...........................................................................................75

AT TECH SO!%ES O-POP...........................................................................................76AT TECH SO!%ES O-POP...........................................................................................77

A TECH SO!%ES O-POP...........................................................................................78

A TECH SO!%ES O-POP...........................................................................................79

A $E%E!OPING NATIONS NOT THE PROB!EM................................................80A $E%E!OPING NATIONS NOT THE PROB!EM................................................81

A SIMON , KHAN....................................................................................................8"

A SIMON , KHAN....................................................................................................84A AFRICA CAN SUSTAIN POPU!ATION GROWTH............................................86

A AQUIFERS SO!%E WATER SHORTAGES..........................................................87

A $ISEASE AN$ MA!NUTRITION ON!Y EFFECT RURA! AREAS.................88A MASS ME$IA ANSWERS TO O%ER-POP..........................................................89

A MASS ME$IA ANSWERS TO O%ER-POP..........................................................90

A CORNUCOPIANS..................................................................................................91

A WITHO!$ING AI$ IMMORA!............................................................................9


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AT ECONOMIC AI$ WI!! S!%E O-POP..................................................................9"

A $ISPERSION SO!%ES...........................................................................................94

A MIN$SET SHIFT SO!%ES....................................................................................95A CAN E'PAN$ FOO$ PRO$UCTION.................................................................96

OTHER IMPORTANT IMPACTS....................................................................................97

UNSAFE $RINKING WATER

$ISEASES............................................................97IMPORTANT CAR$S FOR BEATING GO$ W& O-POP...............................................98

CATHO!ICISM & RE!IGIOUS FUN$AMENTA!ISM O-POP !INKS.....................98

O-POP RE!IGIOUS PERSECUTION......................................................................99STEA$Y STATE KEY TO KING$OM OF GO$......................................................100

AFF ANSWERS..............................................................................................................101

UNIQUENESS................................................................................................................101U- POP $ECREASING NOW....................................................................................101

O%ERSHOOT UNIK!EY..........................................................................................10

AFRICA NOT THE PROB!EM IT/S THE US.........................................................10"O-POP !INK TURNS.....................................................................................................104

PUB!IC HEA!TH ASSISTANCE CHECKS POP GROWTH..................................104FAMI!Y P!ANNING CHECKS POPU!ATION GROWTH....................................105

FAMI!Y P!ANNING CHECKS POPU!ATION GROWTH....................................106AT) $EATH CHECKS.....................................................................................................107

AI$S $&N A $EATH CHECK.................................................................................107

AI$S $&N A $EATH CHECK.................................................................................108O-POP NOT SO BAD......................................................................................................109

SOCIA! SYSTEMS WI!! CHECK...........................................................................109

TECH SO!%ES O-POP...............................................................................................110O-POP $&N HURT THE EN%IRONMENT................................................................111

HUMAN INNOVATION SOLVES O-POP.......................................................................11

ECONOMY.................................................................................................................11"ECONOMY.................................................................................................................114


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UNIQUENESS

POP INCREASING NOW

DESPITE CLAIMS THAT POPULATION GROWTH IS DECLINING, THE

POPULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GROW INTO THE 22ND CENTURY,

ALSO THESE ARGUMENTS ONLY ASSUME THE US AND EUROPE NOT

LESSER DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Seltzer in 02(23 P$ U3:3; 3?@ *$


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POP INCREASING NOW

THE EARTHS CARRYING CAPACITY IS 2! "ILLION PEOPLE # GLO"AL

POPULATION IS E$PECTED TO REACH % "ILLION "Y 20&0

Cre'(), 2000S


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POP INCREASING NOW

POPULATION WILL REACH !0 MILLION "Y 20&0 ACCORDING TO THE US

CENSUS "UREAU

L-.err/re 2000

*(.H. T H C ) 3: :?: @2 J@L::: :3


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POP INCREASING NOW

Crrent Gl)1-l P)(l-ti)n .-' re-.e3 )4er()(l-ti)n

Pientel -n3 H-n5 6%%! 7D-4i3 Pientel -n3 $e+en H-n5, (r)8e'')r' )8e)l)59 -n3 -5riltre -t C)rnell Uni4er'it9, IMPACT O: POPULATION

GROWTH ON :OOD SUPPLIES AND ENVIRONMENT P)(l-ti)n ;

En4ir)nent, V)l< 6=, N)< 6, Se(te1er 6%%!, ((< &>&? +++


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POP INCREASING NOW

P)(l-ti)n i' e@(l)3in5 -n3 +ill 5r)+ ntil i3 26 entr9

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. !" DC

#housands of boo$s have been %ritten on the sub&ect of population, and virtually all ofthem have something to do %ith a dramatic historical trend that began around the turn ofthe seventeenth century and that %ill probably end sometime during the t%enty!second.#hrough most of human history the %orld' population remained belo% ()) million,capped by birth! and death rates that %ere loc$ed in a seemingly permanent e*uilibrium.+ut sometime after the year ")), the line demographers use on graphs to plotpopulation gro%th began to stir, and then too$ an une-pectedand until no% permanentturn up%ard. #he ascent %as slo% at first. #he line probably crossed the half billionmar$ sometime during the seventeenth century. /udged along by improvements in

agriculture and public health and then by the industrial revolution, it climbed higherthrough the eighteenth century. 0fter the turn of the nineteenth century it reached amilestone, passing the one billion mar$ for the first time in human history. #hat %asaround the year 1)), not long after the 2nglish economist #homas Malthus penned hisfamous essay %arning that such gro%th %ould outpace food supplies and hold man$indin the grip of poverty. #he line continued up%ard into the present century and began itssteepest ascent in the years after 34orld 4ar 55, %hen t%o developments sent deathrates plummeting in the poor nations of 0sia, 0frica, and 6atin 0merica. 7ne %as theintroduction of antibiotics and the advent of public health programs that led to massimmuni8ations and improvements in sanitation and %ater supplies. #he other %as anagricultural revolution based on chemical fertili8ers, irrigation, and improved seed strainsthat dramatically e-panded food supplies. #he combined effect %as to reduce mortality

rates. +ut %ith no corresponding drop in birthrates the population line %as propelled intothe demographic stratosphere. +y the 9")s the rate of population gro%th reached :.percent globally and :. percent among developing countriesthe highest everrecorded and then dropped off. +ut, driven by the disproportionately large percentageof young people in the nations of the ;third %orld,< the line plotting the actual gro%th inhuman numbers continued its up%ard course. Several decades of the fastest populationgro%th in human history still lie ahead, according to the =nited /ations. 5f fertilitydeclines fast enough the line %ill level off sometime after the middle of the t%enty!firstcentury. 5f it does not, its ascent %ill continue into the t%enty!second. 5ts long up%ard

&ourney %ill then, finally, be at an end.


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O-POP INCREASING NOW

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2 1irt.' (er )t.er

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SUB-SARAHAN AFRICA POP INCREASING NOW

SU"SAHARAN A:RICA POPULATION IS GROWING :AST

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


11/115

NOW IS THE KEY TIME FOR O-POP

OVERPOPULATION MUST "E STOPPED NOW

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@ >


12/115

NOW IS THE KEY TIME FOR O-POP

If political leaders capitalize now, the population problem can be solved in two

enerationsMoffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg :9If political leaders are wise enough to capitalize on the opportunity providedby the coming together of this extraordinary constellation of circumstances,the population problem could be solved within two generations. If they arenot, providing for the welfare of humanity in the century ahead will beconsiderably more dicult. erhaps, in some of the world!s poorest regions, itwill move beyond the realm of possibility.


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!"#!# $IN%S

PUBLIC HEALTH ASSISTANCE

THE WORLD IS E$PERIENCING RAPID INCREASES IN POPULATION DUE

PARTLY "ECAUSE O: PU"LIC HEALTH ASSISTANCE

E.rili. in %!P@D @2 A$


14/115

HIGH FERTILITY RATES

HIGH :ERTILITY RATES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WILL CAUSE THE

GLO"AL POPULATION TO "ALLOON

Mi11en % B3DD A


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HIGH FERTILITY RATES

POPULATION GROWTH IS DUE TO INCREASING :ERTILITY NOT *UST

DECREASING MORTALITY

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CHECMICAL FERTILIZERS

CHEMICAL :ERTILIERS DIRECTLY CONTRI"UTE TO POPULATION

GROWTH "Y INCREASING NITROGEN LEVELS IN THE HUMAN "ODY

Mi11en % B3DD A


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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

ECONOMIC PROSPERITY AND DEVELOPMENT INCREASE POPULATION

GROWTH

Y)n5i't, 6%%%

W@D C


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AFRICAN CULTURE

VIEWING CHILDREN AND WIVES AS STATUS SYM"OLS IS SWELLING

SU"SAHARAN A:RICAN POPULATION AT AN UNSUSTAINA"LE RATEF

MALE ATTITUDES MUST CHANGE

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


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POVERTY

POVERTY CAUSES OVERPOPULATION AND E$PLOITATION O: SCARCE

RESOURCES



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HEALTH CARE

"ETTER HEALTH CARE MEANS THE POPULATION WILL GROW

W@D Y)n5i't C


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FOOD AID/ FOREIGN AID

:OOD AID CAUSES POPULATION GROWTH

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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IMMIGRATION

Ii5r-ti)n +ill ne4er ')l4e t.e +)rl3 )4er()(l-ti)n Cri'i' -n3 '.)l3 1e 't)((e3

P)(l-ti)nEn4ir)nent "-l-ne *ne 6%%27'H( E)*ESS IMMI+,ATION DAMA+ES THE ENVI,ONMENTN 7@ (

199 P


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&E'() *)E*%S

DISEASE / AIDS

DISEASES STDS CHEC POPULATION THROUGH IN:ERTILITY

:eier-n -n3 *-nzen %2S @2 (32 @ P.$. 3 A=3>@ 3:


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FAMINE

E@(ert 1elie4e t.-t )nl9 8-ine -n (re4ent - tri(lin5 )8 Ni5eri-' ()(l-ti)n 19

20>&

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. 1!9 DC

0nother %ay to understand such gro%th is to measure the annual additions implied insuch estimates. #he %orld?s population is no% gro%ing by close to 9( million per year, afigure that may rise slightly before it starts to decline, according to the =/. #he figureshave greater impact %hen demographers get do%n to specific cases. +y %ay ofcomparison, consider the population increase e-perienced in the =nited @ingdom duringits period of ma-imum gro%th. 5t s%elled from about ) million in Maithus?s time to aboutA) million by 4orld 4ar 5, a span of a century. /o% consider the 0frican nation of

/igeria. 5n 91 /igeria had a population of 1( million. 0ccording to the 4orld +an$, it%ill be double that si8e by :)) and triple that si8e by :)(. +y then it %ill be :) millionpeople larger than it %as in 91 and %ill be the fifth! or si-th!largest nation in the %orld,up from tenth place today.1 Some e-perts doubt that there %ill be a ;by then< for /igeria,meaning that before the country?s population reaches its pro&ected ultimate figure,massive deaths %ill begin occurring from famine and %ant, slo%ing population gro%th onnature?s grim terms.


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ALLOWING PEOPLE DO DIE CHECKS O-POP

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"ertr-n3, -n3 ")4ier 6%%% *(@ C@3


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!"#!# +'& IM#'*(S

WAR

If the state does not chec population rowth, war and disease will

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg ):!)(he man at the center of the great demographic debate was an immensely popular"gure in #ondon, a tall and handsome scholar, $in appearance and conduct aperfect gentleman,% according to one contemporary magazine.% &althus loo'ed outfrom Britain!s cauldron of troubles and concluded that progress would be stymiedbecause economic growth and food production would be unable to 'eep pace withpopulation growth. eering into the future, he predicted that population wouldexpand to the limits of sustainability and be held there in perpetuity by famine,

disease, and war. (ny e)orts to raise the income of the poor would ma'e mattersworse, &althus predicted, since higher incomes would only prompt the poor to havemore children and thus perpetuate the population*poverty cycle. +he only hope layin $prudential strain% or celibacy and later marriages that would ensure smallerfamilies.$Whenever population is not 'ept down by the prudence either of individuals or ofthe state, it is 'ept down by starvation or disease,% concurred another of theclassical economists, ohn -tuart &ill, elaborating &althus!s view.%


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ECONOMY

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT ECONOMIES SU::ER :ROM RAPID

POPULATION GROWTH

Seltzer in 02(23 P$ U3:3; 3?@ *$


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CLIMATE CHANGE

POPULATION GROWTH IS THE ROOT CAUSE O: CLIMATE CHANGE

Gr-nt B%=

!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


30/115

RESOURCE WARS

OVERPOPULATION WILL CAUSE RESOURCE WARS

Mi11en % B3DD A


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RESOURCE SCARCITY

I: US POPULATION DOU"LES SUPPLIES O: ENERGY, :OOD, LAND, AND

WATER WILL "ECOME INADEUATE

$@32 P3D G. RL !. T


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CULTURAL GENOCIDE

OVERPOPULATION CAUSES CULTURAL GENOCIDE

D-il9 -n3 E.rili. in %!*G> $. @ BLD; E?; @2 R:: G


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ECOLOGICAL DESTRUCTION

OVERPOPULATION WILL CAUSE AN ECOLOGICAL CRASH WITHIN THIS

CENTURY



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ENVIRONMENT

OVERPOPULATION WILL DESTROY THE GLO"AL ENVIRONMENT

Ati9-. -n3 Pre'' in %2*S3 M3>@D A3;@ P:32


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ENVIRONMENT

EVERINCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE CAUSED "Y THE EVER

INCREASING POPULATION IS APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD O:

EARTHS SUSTAINA"ILITY

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


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ENVIRONMENT

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ENVIRONMENT

P)(l-ti)n Gr)+t. -'e' en4ir)nent-l i(-t'

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*T


42/115

solution to the global environmental problems scientists are 8ust beginning tounderstand that does not include action to slow pro8ected population growth rates.


43/115

BIO-D

OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO A LOSS O: "IODIVERSITY



44/115

DEFORESTATION

Den'it9 -n3 O4er()(l-ti)n -88et De8)re't-ti)n

Dietz in 6%%!

*T


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:3@: ==>:


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JACKS THE POOR

POPULATION WILL INCREASE AT THE COST O: POOR

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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DESTRUCTION OF THE BIOSPHERE

OVERPOPULATION RISS THE DESTRUCTION O: THE ENTIRE

"IOSPHERE

Gr-nt B%=

!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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VIOLENCE

OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO VIOLENCE

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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STARVATION

OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO MASSIVE STARVATION

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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STARVATION

:OOD PRODUCTION SUPPORTING THE PRO*ECTED MID26ST

CENTURYS POPULATION IS ONLY POSSI"LE AS A ONEO:: EVENT

EITHER WE CONTROL THE POPULATION OR WE STARVE

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


51/115


52/115

STARVATION

:))3 S((lie' -n ne4er Kee( ( +it. Gr)+in5 P)(l-ti)n Nee3'


53/115

STARVATION

OVER POPULATION "AD NOT ENOUGH LAND MEANS STARVATION AND

DECREASED UALITY O: LI:E

Prei'er in 6%%!*R@>D F. P3: Cornell =niversity professor !I%ING WITHIN OUR EN%IRONMENTA! MEANS

Nat3ral ,e!o3re! And An Oti%3% H3%an Po3lation 011.4www$dieo"".$or#

A@ 3: @:+ ;@ < :


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FOOD SHORTAGES

WORLDWIDE :OOD DE:ICITS WILL ONLY INCREASE AS POPULATION

INCREASES

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


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VIOLENCE/DISEASE

OVERPOPULATION INEVITA"LE NOW, WILL LEAD TO INCREASED

VIOLENCE AND THE SPREAD O: DISEASE

Gr-nt B%=

!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


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FAMINE

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n(ree3ente3 '-le -9 1e )n t.e .)riz)n

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


57/115

FAMINE

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le'' .-nel9 # i8 +e 3)nt

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


58/115


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WATER

HAL: O: THE WORLDS CLEAN WATER RESOURCES WILL "E

POLLUTED AND DEVOID O: LI:E "ECAUSE O: OVERPOPULATION

Gr-nt B%=

!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


60/115

WATER

OPOP "AD WATER

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Nat3ral ,e!o3re! And An Oti%3% H3%an Po3lation 011.4www$dieo"".$or#

T 3>@: 3 @


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PREVENTS EFFECTIVE DISEASE / AIDS PREVENTION:

IMPROVEMENT IN LIVING STANDARDS, INCLUDING PU"LIC HEALTH, IS

IMPOSSI"LE WITHOUT DRAMATICALLY REDUCED POPULATION

GROWTH

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


62/115

CULTURAL FRIENDLINESS

Inre-'e3 ()(l-ti)n e4en .rt' ltr-l 8rien3line''J

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


63/115

NUTRITIONAL SECURITY

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E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


64/115


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LAND

OPOP "AD CAUSES "AD LAND MAMGMENT

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


66/115

LAND

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P)(l-ti)nEn4ir)nent "-l-ne in *ne 6%%27'H( E)*ESS IMMI+,ATIONDAMA+ES THE ENVI,ONMENTN 7@ ( 199 P


67/115

MALNUTRITION

Un)ntr)ll-1le ()(l-ti)n le-3' t) -'' M-lntriti)n

#imentel and )uan /994 0David Pimentel and Bue%en uang, professors of ecology andagriculture at Cornell =niversity,IMPA*T O5 POPULATION +,O'TH ON 5OOD SUPPLIES AND

ENVI,ONMENTP


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AUTHORITARIANISM

-apid population rowth leads to a laundr. list of impacts, includin e2cessivel.authoritarian rule and the potential for a revolution

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg 9!:)Fapid population growth can a)ect security in various ways. In rural settings,competition for land, intensi"ed by rapid population growth, could be a catalyst toconHict between large landholders and impoverished peasants. In urban areas thecombination of crowded conditions, pollution, crime, lac' of sanitation, shortages ofpublic services, and the frustration of expectations raised by broader exposure tothe media, produce a considerable potential for violent upheaval, according to onegroup of scholars who recently reported on the implication of demographic trendson .-. security.25/ (ll around the developing world, meanwhile, governments arestruggling to counteract the downward tow exerted by rapid population growth oneconomic growth and, in particular, on the potential for 8ob creation. -ome 6??

million people are already un* or underemployed in developing countries, and J?million more are entering the 8ob mar'et each year, according to the nited Gationsopulation Kund.!L By the International #abor


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IMMIGRATION

#opulation rowth in 'frica can bein a mass miration to EuropeMoffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council for

global ethics] Critical Masses pg 1

@lsewhere, the e)ects of rapid population growth are far more severe. In thedeveloping world, population growth has magni"ed the adverse e)ects of badgovernment polices and social ineAuities, contributing to extensivedeforestation, land degradation, over cropping, urban overcrowding, and, incountries li'e (lgeria, worrisome political trends. (mong the wealthyindustrial nations of @urope, meanwhile, population growth lies behindsigni"cant new social tensions and the growth of pernicious right*wingpolitical movements. +he cause a continuing How of humanity across the&editerranean in search of the 8obs that Gorth (frica!s inecient economiesare unable to generate fast enough to 'eep up with population growth. +he

region with the world!s lowest population growth is bracing itself for worse tocome from the region with the world!s highest. (frica, which today has aboutas many inhabitants as @urope, could have three times @urope!s populationwithin a generation.2N @urope!s immigration laws are already tightening asmillions of dispossessed (fricans are 'noc'ing on its doors. In the futurenational budgets in @urope will be stretched to provide the resource transfersneeded to help (frican nations provide for their own. +he implied threat to@uropean nations, explains the Fand >orporation!s &arten Oan Peuven, isthat $either you visit the problem where it is or the problem will visit you.%2QIf a blow*up occurs or if Islamic fundamentalists ta'e control of a country li'e(lgeria, a million or more refugees, including @uropean expatriates, couldhead for @urope see'ing asylum, according to @uropean estimates.


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PLANNED COLLAPSE GOOD- SOLVES FOR SPIRITUALSOCIETY (GOD)

A PLANNED COLLAPSE O: THE SYSTEM LEADS TO A HIGHER

UALITY O: LI:E 7ALSO WILL LEAD TO A MORE SPIRITUALSOCIETY?

H-n')n 00

(@; H@:


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ZERO POPULATION GROWTH

er) P)(l-ti)n 5r)+t. i' nee3e3 t) 'e''8ll9 3e-l +it. ')i-l -n3 e)n)i

(r)1le'



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NEXT !! YEARS KEY

POPULATION GROWTH MUST STOP IN THE NE$T CENTURY TO

PREVENT OVERPOPULATION

Gr-nt B%=!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


74/115

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION K/T SOLVE O-POP

Onl9 intern-ti)n-l ))(er-ti)n +ill ')l4e t.e .n5er ri'i' t.re-tene3 19 )4er

()(l-ti)n

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


75/115

US MODELING KEY

O4er()(l-ti)n En3' +it. Aeri-n 'ettin5 E@-(le )8 Dere-'e3 ii5r-ti)n

P)(l-ti)nEn4ir)nent "-l-ne in *ne 6%%27'H( E)*ESS IMMI+,ATION DAMA+ES THE ENVI,ONMENT

N 7@ ( 199 P


76/115

'5

AT TECH SOLVES O-POP

WE CANNOT RELY ON NEW TECHNOLOGY TO SOLVE RESOURCE

PRO"LEMS< ONLY A NEW STANDARD IN APPROPRIATION WILL SOLVE

OVERPOPULATION

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


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78/115

AT TECH SOLVES O-POP

THE ONLY SOLUTION TO SAVING THE EARTH IS REMOVING HUMANS

:ROM IT

Gr-nt B%=

!32:; G@ !@ 1996 G@ $@


79/115

A" TECH SOLVES O-POP

(housands of scientists chared with developin technolo. to deal withpopulation rowth believe that technolo. cannot prevent irreversible damae to

the biosphere or continued povert.Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg :( !:A

+he growing body of solid and circumstantial evidence lin'ing rapid populationgrowth with environmental degradation is so worrisome that even the scientistssome economists have been ban'ing on to rescue the future have been gripped bya belated failure of con"dence. In one widely noted warning issued 8ointly in /002,the .-. Gational (cademy of -ciences and the Foyal (cademy of #ondon predictedthat if current population and consumption trends continue, $science andtechnology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of theenvironment or continued poverty for much of the world... -ome of theenvironmental changes may produce irreversible damage to the earth!s capacity to

sustain life.% (nother warning, dispatched the same year and signed by /,1??scientists, including over a hundred Gobel laureates, cautioned7 that $pressureresulting from unrestrained population growth uts demands on the natural worldthat can overwhelm any e)orts to achieve a sustainable future. Got more than oneor two decades remain before the chance to avert the threat we now confront willbe lost and the prospect for humanity Cand natureD immeasurably diminished.%R! Setanother report, this one issued by "fty*six national academies of science in


80/115


81/115

A" DEVELOPING NATIONS NOT THE PROBLEM

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"ertr-n3, -n3 ")4ier 6%%% *(@ C@3


82/115

A" DEVELOPING NATIONS NOT THE PROBLEM

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'(ei8i-ll9

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83/115

A YOUR ARG IMMORA!&UNETHICA!

T.e C)'t )8 - :e+ Li4e' M-9 S-4e t.e li4e' )8 t.e -n9

:let.er in 6%%6 7( U3:3;


84/115

A" SIMON # KHAN

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85/115

A" SIMON # KHAN

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re')re' -re rnnin5 )t -n3 ()(l-ti)n i' t.e -in (r)1le@3@ >


87/115

A" AFRICA CAN SUSTAIN POPULATION GROWTH

A8ri-n -n n)t '(()rt it' Gr)+in5 P)(l-ti)n it -Ke' )nl9 0 )8 +.-t it)n'e'

in3-ll -n3 Pientel in 6%%! 7H; W K32@DD @2 $@32 P3D >


88/115

A" A$UIFERS SOLVE WATER SHORTAGES

T-Kin5 W-ter 8r) Ai8er' i' nre-li'tiF t.e +-ter le4el' -n n)t re5ener-te -n31e)e [email protected]'te3


89/115

A" DISEASE AND MALNUTRITION ONLY EFFECT RURALAREAS

Rr-l -n3 r1-n -re-' '88er e-ll9 8r) 3i'e-'e -n3 -lntriti)n

#imentel and )uan /994 0&avid #imentel and 7uewen )uan, professors of ecolo. andariculture at *ornell Universit., IM#'*( !8 #!#U$'(I!N -!:() !N 8!!& SU##$IES'N& EN3I-!NMEN( #opulation ; Environment, 3ol1 /


90/115

A" MASS MEDIA ANSWERS TO OVER-POP

O4er P)(l-ti)n i' N)t T-Ken 'eri)'l9 19 t.e Me3i- t.e9 -n n)t 1e tr'te3*A ED3> Stanfords Department of +iological Sciences Paul 2hrlich Professor ofPopulation Studies =niversity of @ansasTHE POPULATION E)PLOSION 93l 0118l 4 www$dieo"".$or#

T3: >@;3?->@@>3; 2=333


97/115

A" CAN EXPAND FOOD PRODUCTION

Efforts to e2pand food production are doomed to fail in the lon runMoffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council for

global ethics] Critical Masses pg F"+he second certainty=armed in conversations with dozens of ocials and privateexperts around the developing world=is that e)orts to expand food production bythemselves will he insucient to ensure long*term food security.$Sou have to emphasize family planning measures as well as production inagriculture,% notes a senior economist in 3enya!s planning ministry. $:hey go handin hand because the momentum of population growth is so great. +he ma8orresources being diverted to changing attitudes toward family planning reHect therecognition that there!s no other way to avoid a blea' food lxiture. $$3eeping food production up with existing rates of population growth will put anearly intolerable burden on (frican agriculture and on (frican treasuries,since Q? percent of the continent!s food will have to be imported by 2?26 if

birthrates remain high and agricultural inputs remain low. >onversely, as aulParrison calculates, a reduction of only 2? percent in (frican birthrates wouldcut in half the e)ort reAuired to produce or import food.


98/115

!()E- IM#!-('N( IM#'*(S

UNSAFE DRINKING WATER DISEASES

Un'-8e DrinKin5 +-ter i' t.e le-3in5 -'e )8 3i'e-'e'.



99/115

IM#!-('N( *'-&S 8!- +E'(IN !& :@ !"#!#

CATHOLICISM / RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM O-POP LINKS

THE CATHOLIC :AITH PREVENTS POPULATION CONTROL

E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


100/115

O-POP % RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION

OVERPOPULATION DESTROYS "ASIC HUMAN RIGHTS SUCH AS

:REEDOM :ROM RACISM, SE$ISM, RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION, AND

GROSS ECONOMIC INEUALITYJ



101/115

STEADY STATE KEY TO KINGDOM OF GOD

STEADY STATE EY TO LOVING STUDY AND RE*OICE O: GODS

INGDOM



102/115

'88 'NS:E-SUNIQUENESS

U- POP DECREASING NOW

POPULATION GROWTH RATE DROPPING DUE TO SMALLER :AMILY

SIES WORLD WIDE

Mi11en % B3DD A


103/115

OVERSHOOT UNIKLEY

OVERSHOOT IS UNLIELY REACHING THE LIMITS O: THE

CARRYING CAPACITY O: EARTH WILL NOT HAPPEN

Ser' %6!@J> N


104/115


105/115

!"#!# $IN% (U-NS

PUBLIC HEALTH ASSISTANCE CHECKS POP GROWTH

P1li .e-t. -''i't-ne .eK' ()(l-ti)n 5r)+t.

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E.rli. et -l, 6%%&


106/115

FAMILY PLANNING CHECKS POPULATION GROWTH

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107/115

FAMILY PLANNING CHECKS POPULATION GROWTH

(he vast maAorit. of western e2perts support slowin population rowth throuhfamil. plannin ; birth control

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. DC

#he first concerns %hat needs to be doneI o%ever sharply they may disagree about thelong!term implications of rapid population gro%th, the vast ma&ority of e-perts believethat any prudent strategy for dealing %ith the future must include measures to slo% pro!

&ected population gro%th. #he second point concerns %hat can he doneI Despitedisagreements over tactics, broad strategic agreement e-ists among population e-pertsthat slo%ing population gro%th re*uires a combination of effective family planning anddevelopment plans that include, but are not limited to, increased educationalopportunities for girls. 5f both of these steps %ere ta$en %ith dispatch, the population

problem could be solved %ithin the lifetime of today?s children.

:-il9 (l-nnin5 -n3 )ntr-e(ti4e -n (re4ent - rn. in 3e4el)(in5 )ntrie'

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. DC

Hortunately, one development is li$ely to minimi8e the prospect that developing countries

%ill fall into this ;demographic trap


108/115

'(B &E'() *)E*%S

AIDS D/N % A DEATH CHECK

AIDS NOT A DEATH CHEC IN SU"SAHARAN A:RICA

Seltzer 02(23 P$ U3:3; 3?@ *$


109/115

AIDS D/N % A DEATH CHECK

AIDS +ill n)t ')l4e ()(l-ti)n 5r)+t. -l)ne

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. : DC

Most demographers doubt that 05DS %ill lead to negative population gro%th sincebirthrates still far e-ceed current and pro&ected 05DS death rates even in the %orst!affected countries. 2ven %ith the pro&ected losses, population gro%th rates %ill remainhigh and population doubling times %ill be increased by only a fe% years.' ;#he vie%held by some people that 305DS %ill ta$e care of the population problem? is completelyerroneous,< one group of e-perts concluded in 99(.: 0t the same time, e-perts are%orried that the 05DS epidemic could hasten the spread of other diseases, includingtuberculosis, and thereby increase death rates. 0 more pervasive %orry is that cro%dedand unsanitary conditions, to %hich rapid population gro%th has contributed, could

provide a hothouse environment for the spread of antibiotic!resistant strains of otherinfectious diseases and e-act a high toll in third %orld mega!cities.

AIDS e3-ti)n +ill 'l)+ ()(l-ti)n 5r)+t. 1etter t.-n AIDS

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses P. : DC

Parado-ically, the 05DS cloud that hangs heaviest over 0frica and South and Southeast0sia could have a silver lining. 5f 05DS education programs succeed in convincing large

numbers of adults to limit the number of their se-ual partners and to use condomsregularly, the result could be a decrease not only in 5L infections but in populationgro%th.


110/115

O-POP NOT SO BAD

SOCIAL SYSTEMS WILL CHECK

NO IMPACT, THE NATURAL AND SOCIAL SYSTEM WILL CHEC

GROWTH "E:ORE IMPACTS OCCUR

Dn-n 00

R3>@2 $>@ N


111/115


112/115

O-POP D/N HURT THE ENVIRONMENT

Studies to establish a connection between population rowth and environmentalderadation are not definitive rowth and environmental deradation are not

definitive

Moffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg :(

-tudies to establish undisputed cause*and*e)ect relationships betweenpopulation growth and environmental degradation have been too few, toocountry*speci"c, or, li'e one conducted recently by the International nion forthe >onservation of Gature and reported by the G opulation Kund, toocircumstantial to be de"nitive. (fter surveying habitat loss in "fty (frican and(sian nations, the I>G concluded that the 2? percent of countries that lostthe most habitat Caveraging E6 percentD had /,0?? people per sAuare

'ilometer on average, while the 2? percent that had the least loss of habitatCaveraging N/ percentD had only J?? people per sAuare 'ilometer onaverage.%

#overt. and poor overnment polic.Cnot population rowthCare the maincauses of environmental damaeMoffett 94[George D, former CSM correspondent President of the advisory council forglobal ethics] Critical Masses pg ()

@conomists, demographers, and ecologists have managed to agree on atleast one thing that population growth is only one factor contributing toenvironmental degradation. +he consensus view is that poverty andinappropriate government policies are the main problems so far. In manydeveloping nations, sluggish economic performance has led directly orindirectly to measures that have had a lethal impact on forestlands. nable to'eep up with massive foreign debts incurred in the /0Q?s and l01?s, forexample, they have been pressured by international lending institutions toaccept austerity measures that have led to deep cuts in government services.

+he result has been the dislocation of the poorest and dispossessed, some ofwhom have spilled into virgin forests in countries li'e 9uatemala. >ountriesli'e Brazil, which have been pressured to generate more foreign exchange,

have exploited the forests for minerals and timber for export, often withdevastating ecological results.%


113/115

HUMAN INNOVATION SOLVES O-POP

HUMAN INNOVATION SOLVES OVERPOPULATION

Dietz 6%%!

*T


114/115

POPU!ATION GROWTH GOO$

ECONOMY

POPULATION GROWTH GOOD :OR THE ECONOMY

Mi11en % B3DD A


115/115

ECONOMY

P)(l-ti)n Gr)+t. le-3' t) E)n)i Gr)+t. -n3 en.-ne3 +el8-re

Dietz in 6%%!*T

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Over-population Disad (Tournament Version)

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