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OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

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OVER VIEW OVER VIEW OF OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 27 th th January, 2010 January, 2010
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Page 1: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

OVER VIEW OVER VIEW OF OF

INDIAN POWER SECTORINDIAN POWER SECTOR

2727thth January, 2010 January, 2010

Page 2: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

2

DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA FORECASTFORECAST

((AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)

690

969

1392

1915

100

153

218

298

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006-07 10thPlan End (actual)

2011-12 11thPlan End

2016-17 12thplan End

13th Plan

BU

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

GW

Energy Requirement (BU) Peak Load (GW)

Page 3: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON 31-12-2009 (TYPE_WISE)

Total Installed Capacity = 1,56,092 MW

Fossil fuel based capacity=99,862 MW (64%)

Page 4: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

GENERATION - 2008-09 (BU)

Total Generation = 746 BU

Fossil fuel based Generation=590 BU (79%)

* Estimated

Page 5: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (PEAK)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan

126899

142765

96685

108550

90793

108866 109809

130652

140947

152746

90000

100000

110000

120000

130000

140000

150000

160000

2007-

08(Actual)

2008-

09(Actual)

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Year

MW

Peak Availability Peak Load

Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

Page 6: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (ENERGY)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan

948835

689021714096

666007

829600

739345

774324

848390

906316

968659

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

1100000

2007-08(Actual)

2008-09(Actual)

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

YearEnergy Availibility Energy Requirement

Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09

Page 7: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

7Total: 62,374 MWTotal: 62,374 MW

LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11thth PLAN PLAN (With High Degree of Certainty)(With High Degree of Certainty)

Coal, 41890, 67%

Lignite, 2280, 4%

Gas/LNG, 6587, 11%

Nuclear, 3380, 5% Hydro, 8237, 13%

Page 8: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12th & 13th PLANS

Page 9: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY 1. Promote Hydro Project Development

Facilitate Statutory Clearances of Projects identified for 12 th Plan to ensure placement of orders for main packages in 11th Plan

2. Promote Renewable Energy RPOs to be specified by SERCs Trading of Renewable Purchase Certificates Implementation of solar missionSolar Mission – MoP finalizing strategies for development of Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW through NVVNL by 2013.- 200 MW roof top solar by 2013- SERCs to specify RPOs in respect of solar energy, MoP to make necessary modification in NEP/ Tariff Policy

3. Promoting New Gas based projects with a mix of indigenous Gas and imported RLNG with pooled pricing applicable to all the new and existing projects

At least 27,000 MW Gas based capacity needs to be developed during 12th and 13th Plan.

Page 10: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……

4. Early notification of CEA regulation on construction of power plants indicating mandatory minimum efficiency levels

5. Retirement of Old and Inefficient Coal based Generating units – 4000 MW each in 12th and 13th Plan.– List of projects to be retired during 11th Plan has been

finalised and 1100 MW already retired.

6. Implementation of National Enhanced Efficiency Renovation and Modernization Program.– To incentivise States, 50% of generation capability of the

unit just before shut down for R&M may be compensated by way of additional allocation from unallocated quota during the normative period of shut down.

– Low interest rate financing for enhanced efficiency based R&M.

Page 11: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

7. Adoption of Clean Coal TechnologyTarget:12th Plan – At least 50% of Coal based capacity should be super critical

13th Plan – All coal based capacity should be super criticalAction:(a)Creation of Indigenous manufacturing capacity for super critical equipment(b)Incentivising Indigenous Manufacturers to ensure transfer of Super Critical Technology(c)Bulk tendering for 11x660 MW Super Critical units with mandatory indigenous manufacturing in progress. To initiate Bulk Tendering for 800 MW size units shortly after finalising orders for 660 MW.(d)Bulk tendering for projects based on Ultra super critical technology with mandatory indigenous manufacturing by 2011-12.(e)MOEF to be advised not to clear any Coal based projects w.e.f. 01-04-2012 on Sub-critical technology. No coal linkages for Sub-critical plants for 13th Plan(f)Propose zero custom duty and excise duty on Super Critical Plans supplied by indigenous manufacturers.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……

Page 12: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……

8. Reduction of T&D losses to be accorded high priority

– Franchise model to be promoted.

– Implementation of R- APDRP to reduce technical and commercial losses.

9. Implementation of BEE Program Implementation of ECBC in states

DSM in municipal, agriculture and buildings Enforcement of energy intensity standards in Energy Intensive

Industry and trading of emission reduction certificates. CFL Bachat Lamp Yojna

Agriculture (Ag DSM) Pump efficiency improvement through ESCO.

Labeling of Appliances

• Labeling of Inverters on priority

Page 13: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-12th Plan

  BAU MODERATE

OPTIMISTIC

Hydro 8500 16360 21200

Nuclear 4800 4800 4800

Renewable (Excluding Solar) 15000 15000 15000

Solar 0 2000 4000

Retirements of Old inefficient Units 0 4000 4000

Gas 0 13000 25000

Coal 94300 69810 53410

Sub-Critical 68100 28010 21410

Super Critical 26200 41800 32000

12th Plan (Total) (Conventional) 107600 106470 106910

Page 14: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

  BAU MODERATE OPTIMISTIC

Hydro 8500 25000 33540

Nuclear 5000 8000 13000

Renewable Excluding Solar 15000 16500 16500

Solar 0 8000 16000

Retirements of old inefficient units 0 4000 4000

Gas 0 14000 20000

Coal 60500 35200 22400

Sub-Critical 44500 0 0

Super Critical 16000 35200 22400

13th Plan (Total) (Conventional) 74000 82200 88940

THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-13th Plan(All Figures in MW)

Page 15: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Weighted Average Emissions Fuel- Wise (tCO2/MWh) *

During 2007-08

With Latest Technology

Coal 1.00 0.88 (Super Critical HR 2326)

Gas 0.46 0.34 (CCGT η - 53%)

0.25 (CCHP η - 70%)

Oil 0.71 0.71

DG Sets 0.61 0.61

Bio Mass Co2 Neutral Co2 Neutral

* Values calculated on gross generation

Page 16: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Emission Factor (kg/kwh of CO2)

Page 17: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

STUDY RESULTS

Based on EGEAS Program run for projected load curves– Gas based generation @ 70% PLF in all

scenarios– Renewables – Must run– Coal based generation operated on merit order

Page 18: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual

Page 19: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual

Page 20: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.
Page 21: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

Anticipated Percentage Reduction of Emission Factor (Kg/Kwh) for Power Sector w.r.t. year 2004-05

 

End of 10th Plan (2006-07) (Actual)

End of 11th Plan (2011-12)

End of 12th Plan

(2016-17)

End of 13th Plan (2021-22)

BAU

5.1 5.4

5.9 6.6

Moderate 11.2 15.6

Optimistic 15.7 20.3

Page 22: OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010.

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