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OVER VIEW OVER VIEW OF OF
INDIAN POWER SECTORINDIAN POWER SECTOR
2727thth January, 2010 January, 2010
2
DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA FORECASTFORECAST
((AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)
690
969
1392
1915
100
153
218
298
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2006-07 10thPlan End (actual)
2011-12 11thPlan End
2016-17 12thplan End
13th Plan
BU
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
GW
Energy Requirement (BU) Peak Load (GW)
INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON 31-12-2009 (TYPE_WISE)
Total Installed Capacity = 1,56,092 MW
Fossil fuel based capacity=99,862 MW (64%)
GENERATION - 2008-09 (BU)
Total Generation = 746 BU
Fossil fuel based Generation=590 BU (79%)
* Estimated
Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (PEAK)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan
126899
142765
96685
108550
90793
108866 109809
130652
140947
152746
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
2007-
08(Actual)
2008-
09(Actual)
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
Year
MW
Peak Availability Peak Load
Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09
Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (ENERGY)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11th Plan
948835
689021714096
666007
829600
739345
774324
848390
906316
968659
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
1100000
2007-08(Actual)
2008-09(Actual)
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
YearEnergy Availibility Energy Requirement
Actual Power Supply Position for 2007-08 & 2008-09
7Total: 62,374 MWTotal: 62,374 MW
LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11thth PLAN PLAN (With High Degree of Certainty)(With High Degree of Certainty)
Coal, 41890, 67%
Lignite, 2280, 4%
Gas/LNG, 6587, 11%
Nuclear, 3380, 5% Hydro, 8237, 13%
GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12th & 13th PLANS
LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY 1. Promote Hydro Project Development
Facilitate Statutory Clearances of Projects identified for 12 th Plan to ensure placement of orders for main packages in 11th Plan
2. Promote Renewable Energy RPOs to be specified by SERCs Trading of Renewable Purchase Certificates Implementation of solar missionSolar Mission – MoP finalizing strategies for development of Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW through NVVNL by 2013.- 200 MW roof top solar by 2013- SERCs to specify RPOs in respect of solar energy, MoP to make necessary modification in NEP/ Tariff Policy
3. Promoting New Gas based projects with a mix of indigenous Gas and imported RLNG with pooled pricing applicable to all the new and existing projects
At least 27,000 MW Gas based capacity needs to be developed during 12th and 13th Plan.
LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……
4. Early notification of CEA regulation on construction of power plants indicating mandatory minimum efficiency levels
5. Retirement of Old and Inefficient Coal based Generating units – 4000 MW each in 12th and 13th Plan.– List of projects to be retired during 11th Plan has been
finalised and 1100 MW already retired.
6. Implementation of National Enhanced Efficiency Renovation and Modernization Program.– To incentivise States, 50% of generation capability of the
unit just before shut down for R&M may be compensated by way of additional allocation from unallocated quota during the normative period of shut down.
– Low interest rate financing for enhanced efficiency based R&M.
7. Adoption of Clean Coal TechnologyTarget:12th Plan – At least 50% of Coal based capacity should be super critical
13th Plan – All coal based capacity should be super criticalAction:(a)Creation of Indigenous manufacturing capacity for super critical equipment(b)Incentivising Indigenous Manufacturers to ensure transfer of Super Critical Technology(c)Bulk tendering for 11x660 MW Super Critical units with mandatory indigenous manufacturing in progress. To initiate Bulk Tendering for 800 MW size units shortly after finalising orders for 660 MW.(d)Bulk tendering for projects based on Ultra super critical technology with mandatory indigenous manufacturing by 2011-12.(e)MOEF to be advised not to clear any Coal based projects w.e.f. 01-04-2012 on Sub-critical technology. No coal linkages for Sub-critical plants for 13th Plan(f)Propose zero custom duty and excise duty on Super Critical Plans supplied by indigenous manufacturers.
LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……
LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd……
8. Reduction of T&D losses to be accorded high priority
– Franchise model to be promoted.
– Implementation of R- APDRP to reduce technical and commercial losses.
9. Implementation of BEE Program Implementation of ECBC in states
DSM in municipal, agriculture and buildings Enforcement of energy intensity standards in Energy Intensive
Industry and trading of emission reduction certificates. CFL Bachat Lamp Yojna
Agriculture (Ag DSM) Pump efficiency improvement through ESCO.
Labeling of Appliances
• Labeling of Inverters on priority
THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-12th Plan
BAU MODERATE
OPTIMISTIC
Hydro 8500 16360 21200
Nuclear 4800 4800 4800
Renewable (Excluding Solar) 15000 15000 15000
Solar 0 2000 4000
Retirements of Old inefficient Units 0 4000 4000
Gas 0 13000 25000
Coal 94300 69810 53410
Sub-Critical 68100 28010 21410
Super Critical 26200 41800 32000
12th Plan (Total) (Conventional) 107600 106470 106910
BAU MODERATE OPTIMISTIC
Hydro 8500 25000 33540
Nuclear 5000 8000 13000
Renewable Excluding Solar 15000 16500 16500
Solar 0 8000 16000
Retirements of old inefficient units 0 4000 4000
Gas 0 14000 20000
Coal 60500 35200 22400
Sub-Critical 44500 0 0
Super Critical 16000 35200 22400
13th Plan (Total) (Conventional) 74000 82200 88940
THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-13th Plan(All Figures in MW)
Weighted Average Emissions Fuel- Wise (tCO2/MWh) *
During 2007-08
With Latest Technology
Coal 1.00 0.88 (Super Critical HR 2326)
Gas 0.46 0.34 (CCGT η - 53%)
0.25 (CCHP η - 70%)
Oil 0.71 0.71
DG Sets 0.61 0.61
Bio Mass Co2 Neutral Co2 Neutral
* Values calculated on gross generation
Emission Factor (kg/kwh of CO2)
STUDY RESULTS
Based on EGEAS Program run for projected load curves– Gas based generation @ 70% PLF in all
scenarios– Renewables – Must run– Coal based generation operated on merit order
Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual
Note: Figures for 2004-05 and 2006-07 are actual
Anticipated Percentage Reduction of Emission Factor (Kg/Kwh) for Power Sector w.r.t. year 2004-05
End of 10th Plan (2006-07) (Actual)
End of 11th Plan (2011-12)
End of 12th Plan
(2016-17)
End of 13th Plan (2021-22)
BAU
5.1 5.4
5.9 6.6
Moderate 11.2 15.6
Optimistic 15.7 20.3