October 8, 2018
“Overall, wholesale market values were relatively steady last week with the exception of some luxury and sporty car segments.”
Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations
Model Years: 2010-2016, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 9/28/18 to 10/5/18
Sporty Cars Depreciated More
• Volume-weighted, overall car segment values decreased by 0.21% last week. In comparison, the
market values had decreased by 0.09% on average during the prior 4-week period.
• In cars, the Premium Sporty Car segment experienced the biggest drop.
• Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by
0.16% last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.07% on average during the
prior 4-week period.
• In trucks, the Full-Size Luxury Crossover/SUV segment performed the worst.
-$7-0.12%
-$19-0.24%
-$4-0.04%
-$28-0.24%
-$41-0.26%
-$39-0.21%
-$117-0.34%
-$52-0.34%
-$209-0.53%
-$23CARS
-0.21%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0%
WEE
KLY
CH
AN
GE
+$0+0.00% -$10
-0.08% -$29-0.18%
-$7-0.03%
-$15-0.09%
-$17-0.09%
-$64-0.31%
-$192-0.61%
-$34-0.27%
-$20-0.22%
+$36+0.25%
-$37-0.23%
-$25-0.13%
-$26TRUCKS-0.16%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0%
+0.2%
+0.4%
WEE
KLY
CH
AN
GE
2
October 8, 2018
Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend several auctions every week across the country to provide key insights:
“Retail sales are slow, indicating a return to the more normal fall automotive season. Compact SUVs were the big attraction at the auction today.” James in TN
“Today marked the first time in a long time that I heard the term “market adjustment” mentioned. Prices across the board were just OK.” Bob in MA
“The weather has turned more fall like setting the tone for a softer market. Dealers were reporting a weaker retail market this week.” Mark in MI
“Dealers are still buying as business remains strong especially for the nice, cleaner units.” Tim in IN
“The auctioneers and several remarketers noted that prices were down slightly.” Norm in IL
12-Month Depreciation by Segment Oct 1, 2017 to Oct 1, 2018
Source: Black Book Visual Analytics
The car segments, commercial vans, and pickup trucks had the lowest depreciation in the last twelve months,
while luxury vehicles showed the highest depreciation.
Vehicle Highlight
2019 Chevrolet Malibu offers a new 1.5L Turbo engine with a CVT and a 2.0L Turbo engine with a 9-speed transmission. MSRP including destination ranges from $22,965 (L trim) to $32,545 (Premier trim). The main competitors include the Ford Fusion, Toyota Camry, Nissan Altima, and Kia Optima.
This week’s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty Markets.
3
October 8, 2018
Rest in Peace Bandit “As I’m sure you’re aware, Burt Reynolds passed away early in September. What is
not as well known is his impact on the performance car world. When Smokey and
the Bandit was released, performance cars were at a low point, and the Pontiac
Trans Am was really the only one still in the game. The exposure it received revitalized the entire genre
and made fast cars ‘cool’ again, leading to a resurgence we are still enjoying to this day.”
Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets
• Mecum’s Harrisburg, Pennsylvania auction was very successful, bringing in over $24,000,000 on the sale of 763 collectible vehicles with a strong sell through ratio of nearly 80%. Their Louisville, Kentucky sale was quite a bit smaller at $8,400,000, but had a good sales rate of 74% with 417 of 562 vehicles finding new homes.
• Worldwide’s The Auburn Auction was held over Labor Day weekend once again, and a very impressive 99% of all offered lots were declared sold, including Paul McCartney’s 1965 Mini Cooper S, which brought $236,500.
• RM Sotheby’s London auction totaled roughly $13,000,000, while their Auburn sale generated $21,700,000.
Notable Recent Auction Sales Include:
2018 Dodge Challenger SRT Demon $132,000 (Mecum)
1965 Buick Riviera Gran Sport $71,500 (Mecum)
2003 Ferrari Enzo $2,565,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
1993 Porsche 911 Carrera RS 3.8 $1,215,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
1971 Iso Grifo 7-Litre Coupe $650,000 (RM Sotheby’s)
1973 Pontiac Trans Am SD455 Coupe $170,000 (Worldwide)
1957 Mercedes 300SL Roadster $852,500 (RM Sotheby’s)
2006 Ford GT Coupe $357,500 (RM Sotheby’s)
1967 Chevrolet Corvette 427 Convertible $143,000 (Mecum)
2007 Ferrari F430 Spider $137,500 (Mecum)
Bandit Trans Am. Courtesy of Barrett Jackson.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Classic Trucks and SUVs
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
COLLECTIBLE CARS
4
October 8, 2018
Towable Values Back Off As Fall Approaches
“The average selling price of towables at auction last month dropped nearly ten
percent, which is a surprise, given their recent market trends. However, it’s
important to note that they are still above where they were three months ago, and roughly the same as
they have been for most of the year. We’ll be keeping an eye on them to see if the market is truly
softening, perhaps due to oversupply on the new side, or if last month was an anomaly.” Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty Markets
For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C)
• Average selling price was $44,484 up $34 (0.001%) from the previous month
• One year ago, the average selling price was $48,062
• Auction volume was down 17% from the previous month. The average model year was 2009.
For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels)
• Average selling price was $13,558, down $1,463 (9.7%) from the previous month
• One year ago, the average selling price was $14,052
• Auction volume was up 4% from the previous month. The average model year was 2009.
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
Jan
-14
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-15
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-16
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-17
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
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pO
ctN
ov
De
cJa
n-1
8Fe
bM
arA
pr
May
Jun
eJu
lyA
ugu
st
Motor Home Value Trends
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
Jan
-14
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-15
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-16
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
gSe
pt
Oct
No
vD
ec
Jan
-17
Feb
Mar
Ap
rM
ayJu
ne
July
Au
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pO
ctN
ov
De
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n-1
8Fe
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May
Jun
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st
Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
RECREATIONAL VEHICLES
5
October 8, 2018
Powersports Market Sees Slight Uptick “Overall pricing in the Powersports market is mostly steady this month, with several segments that normally decline this time of year actually being up a little bit. Cruisers are the only on-road segment to see a significant decrease in values.”
Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor
• Unusual for October, the Scooters, Dual Sports, and Street Bikes are up. The amounts are very small, but any increase in the road-going segments this time of year is noteworthy.
• More normal for the season, the off-road segments are up slightly this month, with the Off-Road bikes having the largest increase at 0.5%.
• The Cruiser segment is the only one of the on-road bike classes to see a “normal” drop this month, down by roughly 2%. Within the segment, the domestic models are down a touch less than the metrics.
• Snowmobiles have finally started to appreciate, as we are seeing auction volumes start to slowly increase from their minimal summer levels, raising average prices by 0.6%.
0.1%
-1.9% -1.9%
-1.7%
-1.0%
0.5%0.7%
0.3%
0.6%
0.1%0.2%
-1.1%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Change September to October 2018
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
POWERSPORTS
6
October 8, 2018
Wholesale Values Barely Moving... Heading into the Fall Months!
“Buyers with equipment needs continue to pay up for the good spec low
mileage trucks, but they need to be more flexible as the real low mileage
trucks become rare.” Charles Cathey – Heavy-Duty Truck Editor
• Fleets with large numbers of deliveries are letting go of their premium turn-ins first, realizing that the
current used truck buying frenzy won’t last forever.
• Buyers with needs now are paying up, realizing mileage will rise.
• How much will the values drop as the mileage rises? We’ll be monitoring.
DATE
Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL
YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/18 96,862 -370 -0.4% 78,285 -545 -0.7% 69,946 -465 -0.7% 2016-2017
09/01/18 97,232 -497 -0.5% 78,829 -721 -0.9% 70,410 -718 -1.0% 2016-2017
• 2016-2017 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $ 370 (0.4%) in September,
compared to the average decline of $497 (0.5%) in August.
• 2016-2017 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $545 (0.7%) in September, compared
to the average drop of $721 (0.9%) in August.
• 2016-2017 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $465 (0.7%) in September, compared to the
average depreciation of $718 (1.0%) in August.
DATE
Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL
YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/18 49,750 -276 -0.6% 34,186 -337 -1.0% 27,102 -273 -1.0% 2008-2015
09/01/18 50,026 -374 -0.7% 34,523 -436 -1.2% 27,375 -436 -1.6% 2008-2015
• 2008-2015 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $276 (0.6%) in September,
compared to the $374 (0.7%) in August.
• 2008-2015 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $337 (1.0%) in September, compared
to $436 (1.2%) average depreciation in August.
• 2008-2015 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $273 (1.0%) in September, compared to the
average drop of $436 (1.6%) in August.
-$1,800
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
Mo
nth
ly C
han
ges
Average Wholesale Value Changes (Late Model)
Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
HEAVY DUTY
7
October 8, 2018
Wholesale Price Trends Improved Slightly In September
“We’ve seen less depreciation on the older units mainly due to a limited supply
and increased demand.” Josh Giles - Senior Truck Editor
DATE
Medium Duty MODEL
YEARS
DATE
Medium Duty MODEL
YEARS Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change
10/01/18 21,676 -113 -0.5% 2008-2015 10/01/18 49,896 -356 -0.7% 2016-2017
09/01/18 21,789 -223 -1.0% 2008-2015 09/01/18 50,253 -464 -0.9% 2016-2017
• Older Models (2008 – 2015) dropped an overall weighted average of $113 (0.5%) in September. This is an improvement
over the $223 (1.0%) drop experienced in August.
• Late Models (2016 – 2017) dropped an overall weighted average of $356 (0.7%) in September. This is also an improvement
over the $464 (0.9%) drop seen the month prior.
• Class 5 – 7 have stabilized a bit due to limited supply of good used trucks.
• We have seen a slight increase in depreciation on Class 4 units over the past couple of months.
• We expect to see Older Units depreciate less than Late Models over the next couple months as strong demand and limited supply continue to drive the market.
1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043| 1.866.452.1400
www.blackbook.com| [email protected] Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbook.com/insights/market-insights
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
+$200
Aug '17 Nov '17 Feb '18 May '18 Aug '18
CHANGES IN WHOLESALE VALUEMODEL YEARS 2013 TO 2015
CLASS 4 CAB/CHASSIS CLASS 5 CAB/CHASSIS CLASS 6 CAB/CHASSIS
CLASS 7 CAB/CHASSIS LIGHT-DUTY PICKUP TRUCKS
+$0.00+$0.01+$0.01+$0.03+$0.02
-$0.01
+$0.48+$0.48+$0.46+$0.49
+$0.62+$0.61
-$0.10
+$0.00
+$0.10
+$0.20
+$0.30
+$0.40
+$0.50
+$0.60
+$0.70
09/24/1809/17/1809/10/1809/03/1808/27/1808/20/18
Diesel Price Changes
Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year
SPECIALTY MARKETS:
MEDIUM DUTY