17
New Parliament elected on October 26, 2014
Parti Procent Mandater ved
partilisteopstilling
Mandater i
enkeltmandskredse
Yatsenyks Folkefronten
[Narodnyi Front]
22 % 64 18
Blok Poroshenko
21 % 63 69
Sadovys Selvhjælpsparti
[Samopomich]
11 % 32 1
Boykos Oppositionsblokken
9 % 27 2
Lyashkos Radikale Parti
7 % 22 0
Tymoshenkos
Fædrelandsparti
[Batkivshchyna]
6 % 17 2
Newly appointed Government
New people – not from the “old system” – young, with good Western education,
speak English
Three foreigners – Minister of Economy, Minister of Finances, Minister of Health
Government has adopted the Action plan for reforming the country in two years.
Main points:
Pro-european direction
Focus on anti-corruption measures
Increase on tariffs on utility services
Pressure decrease on business
Decentralization
EU Agreement vs Customs Union
Ukraine’s trade conditions have changed significantly in the first half of 2014.
The European Union has opened its market completely to 98% of Ukraine’s goods from
1 May 2014 as a consequence of the DCFTA with Ukraine.
Russia’s trade sanctions will reduce Ukrainian market access there. The obvious
consequence should be a substantial divergence of Ukraine’s trade from Russia to Europe.
The study of financial institutions shows that the DCFTA would add 11.8% to Ukraine’s
GDP, while the Customs Union would reduce it by 3.7%. The DCFTA would substantially
increase trade (both exports and imports), whereas the Customs Union would reduce
trade.
Ukraine towards Europe
The forecast on GDP from Economist Intelligence Unit:
2014 р. - 6.5%; 2015 р.: + 1.2%; 2016 р.: + 3.5%; 2017 р.: + 3.9%
Ukraine’s exports to the European Union increased by 15% in
the first half of 2014.
The DCFTA will decrease or eliminate existing trade barriers between Ukraine and the
European Union, leading to increased mutual trade.
The main advantages for Ukraine will be:
better access to the vast EU market, which is 10 times larger than the Russian market;
increased inflow of foreign direct investments, which will modernize the Ukrainian
economy, restructure enterprises, and create jobs;
harmonization of regulatory and institutional standards, which will improve the business
environment and rule of law in Ukraine.
Russia
Belarus
Kazakhstan
European Union
Growth, %
Agricultural production and food processing
IT – outstaffing, outsourcing, software development
Energy efficiency / renewable energy / district heating
Retail trade (793.7 billion UAH, which is up 9.2% YOY (food + non-
food)
Health care/pharmaceutical products
Outsourced processing – a new revival within textiles and wood
/metal processing
Based on the pooled opinions of 103 CEOs of the largest Ukrainian companies about business development
trends in 2015. This survey was conducted by EBA in mid-November 2014.
The respondents represent different sectors of the economy: services (51%), manufacturing and agriculture
(44%) and construction (5%)
Two thirds (67%) of CEOs expect stable or growing business performance in
2015
The business sector strongly demands reforms from the Government
defining anti-corruption measures, juridical and tax reforms as the top
priorities
Most of the CEOs (84%) expect 2015 average exchange rate to be UAH 15 per
USD, which is above the NBU target of UAH 13 per USD
The majority of the CEOs (84%) expect wage and salary increases, though the
level is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the inflation in 2015
2015 growth prospects Government priorities
