Overview and Statusof HTAP 2 Experiments

www.htap.org

Co-Chairs

Terry Keating, PhD Frank Dentener, PhDU.S. Environmental Protection Agency European Commission

Office of Air & Radiation Joint Research Centre

• TF HTAP was created by the LRTAP Convention’s Executive Body in December 2004 to “develop a fuller understanding of the hemispheric transport of air pollution.”

o The TF HTAP chairs were encouraged to invite the participation of experts both inside and outside the geographic bounds of the Convention.

• In 2010, the Executive Body further charged the TF HTAP too Examine the transport of air pollution, including ozone and its

precursors, across the Northern Hemisphereo Assess potential emission mitigation options available inside and

outside the UNECEo Assess their impacts on regional and global air quality, public health,

ecosystems, and near-term climate change o Work in collaboration with other groups both inside and outside

the Convention.

Task Force MandateIntro to TF HTAP

Parties to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air PollutionAnd Other Participants in TF HTAP

Approximately 800 individual scientists have taken part in at least one TF HTAP activity since 2005.

Objectives of 2012-2016 Work Plan1. Deliver Policy Relevant Information to the LRTAP Convention, Other Multi-

Lateral Forums, and National Governments

a. What fraction of air pollution can be attributed to contemporary anthropogenic regional emissions sources versus extra-regional, non-anthropogenic, or legacy sources of pollution?

b. What is the contribution of each fraction to impacts on human health, ecosystems and climate change?

c. How sensitive are regional pollution levels and related impacts to changes in regional versus extra-regional emission sources?

d. How will the contributions of the fractions and their sensitivities change in the future as a result of expected air pollution abatement efforts or climate change?

e. How do the availability, costs and impacts of additional emission abatement options compare across different regions?

2. Improve Our Scientific Understanding of Air Pollution at the Global to Hemispheric Scale

3. Build a Common Understanding by Engaging Experts Inside and Outside the LRTAP Convention

Themes of Cooperative Activities Under TF HTAPAs Numbered in Convention Work Plan

2012-2016 Work Plan

1.6.1 Emissions & Projections

1.6.2 Global/Regional Source/Receptor Modeling 1.6.3 Model/Observation &

Process Evaluation

1.6.4 Impacts on Health, Ecosystems, & Climate 1.6.5 Impact of Climate

Change on Pollution

1.6.7Papers

& Reports

1.6.6 Data Network & Analysis Tools

> 35 Work Packages identified, each with a volunteer leader.

Emissions Mosaics for 2008 and 2010A global data set compiled from inventories developed at the national or regional scale (Europe, US, Canada, China, Korea, India, Rest of Asia, Rest of World) to be consistent with AQMEII and MICS-Asia.Anthropogenic emissions at 0.1⁰ x 0.1 ⁰ resolution (some data at 0.25 ⁰)

HTAP2 2008 NOx Emissions from Road Transportation

2012-2016 Work Plan

Data available online.

“Benchmark” Scenarios for 2010-2050Defining reference points for a discussion about what is possible and what is likely using 3 scenarios: Current Legislation,

No Further Control, and Maximum Technological Reductions

2012-2016 Work Plan

Workshop planned for week of Feb 9 at IIASA outside Vienna.

NAEU

EASA

HTAP1 focused on source-receptor relationships between 4 large continental regions

HTAP2 is looking at 16 “source” regions separated mostly along national boundaries and ~60 receptor regions.

Source Receptor Modeling Experiments2012-2016 Work Plan

MICSAsia

AQMEIIAQMEII

And linking with higher resolution regional model intercomparisons

HTAP2 Model Experiments

• Base run: 2008-2009-2010 (+6 months spin-up for global models)

• [CH4] perturbation runs• Emission perturbation runs (-20%):

All anthropogenic

By sectorBy pollutant

Global

Regional

13 regions+ Oceans

“Each modelling group should balance these priorities with their research interests”

Planning to “nest” regional model ensembles within global model ensembles by coordinating with existing regional-scale model intercomparison projects:

• MICS-Asia

• AQMEII

• EuroDelta3?

• POLMIP?

Globally unperturbed

Globally perturbed

Regionally perturbed

Regionally unperturbed

Regionally perturbed

Regionally perturbed

BoundaryConditions

Nesting Global and Regional Simulations

Global Model Outputs for Regional Boundary Conditions

• 4 Models/Groups: AM3/NOAA, IFS/ECMWF, GEOSChem/SNU, Chaser/NIES

• 6 Scenarios: • BASE: base simulation• CH4INC: global methane increase• GLOALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions globally• NAMALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in N. America• EURALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in Europe• EASALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in East Asia• SASALL: 20% dec of all anthro emissions in South Asia

• 3 years: 2008-2010

1.6.2 Global/Regional Modeling of S/R Relationships

HTAP2 output variables• The list of model outputs requested was built on several iterations with modellers, on

the basis of HTAP specific objectives and previous MIPs output diagnostics.

• Each requested output variable is to be provided in a separate file containing all time steps for a single year.

• The requested outputs are divided into 5 output types, defined primarily by the vertical dimension of the data:

1. Surface (original model grid)2. Column (original model grid)3. ModelLevel (original model grid)4. SurfaceAtStations (gas and aerosol monitoring stations provided separately) 5. ModelLevelAtStations (e.g. at mountain sites, soundings, MOZAIC profile).

• The frequency of the outputs includes: time invariant, hourly, daily, monthly, sat1000, sat1330, sat2200, sat0130 (satellite overpass times).

http://iek8wikis.iek.fz-juelich.de/HTAPWiki/WP2.2

The variable, the type, and the year and frequency are part of the model output file name(exp:htap2_GEOSCHEM822_GLOBALL_vmro3_ModelLevel_2010_hourly.nc)

File Name Convention

B Koffi @ JRC

• The NetCDF CF goes through extensive evaluation by CF panel- advising on naming. CMOR tables for fortran librariies.

Possible Themes Comparison to Satellite and

Aircraft Observations Regional Budgets Vertical Profiles Ozone Deposition and Stomatal

Flux S/R Methods Comparison Ozone Surface Observations Biomass Burning Sensitivity North American Inflow Black Carbon Sulfate/Nitrate Budgets• Optical Properties• Local Scale Sensitivities

Partner organisations• AeroCom• CCMI• AQMEII• MICS-Asia• EuroDelta3• POLMIP• GMOS• POPs• South Asian Work Group

Model-Observation Evaluations and Process Studies

2008, 2010 Emissions

Global Base Modeling

Regional Base Modeling

Source AttributionMethod Comparison

Source/ReceptorParameterization

Model-Observation Analyses

Air Quality, Health, Ecosystem, and Climate Impacts of Mitigation Scenarios

2010-2030/2050 Scenarios

Global & Regional Perturbations

Work Flow2012-2016 Work Plan

On-Line Tracking Form (www.htap.org/survey/)HTAP2 Simulations

On-Line Tracking Form (www.htap.org/survey/)HTAP2 Simulations

EU Thematic Strategy for Air Quality (?)

LRTAP Convention Assessment (Jan – Dec 2015)

EPA O3 NAAQS Implementation (2015-2016)

EPA PM NAAQS Integrated Science Assessment (2015-6)

Minimata Mercury Convention Implementation (?)

…

Potential Policy Audiences (Time Windows)

Policy Relevant Products

Global Emissions Scenarios Workshop, Feb 11-13?, Vienna

AQMEII Session, ITM 2015, 4-8 May, Montpellier, France

TFMM, 5-8 May, Krakow, Poland; TFIAM, 5-7 May, Edinburgh

HTAP2 Model Evaluation Workshop, May 11-13, Boulder

EMEP Steering Body Meeting, 14-18 Sept, Geneva

TF HTAP Integrated Assessment Workshop, Fall 2015, ?

WGSR Meeting, 14-18 Dec, Geneva

EB Meeting, April 2016, Geneva

Near Term Meetings as Drivers

Meetings and Milestones

TF HTAP is looking forward to a productive collaboration with AQMEIIand MICS-Asia.

MICSAsia

AQMEIIAQMEII

HTAP