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OBJECTIVE – Test and validate the SoS analytic workbench (AWB) by addressing the “archetypal questions” in a unified naval warfare scenario Overview Computational Methods Contacts/References External Applications Computational Methods SERC Sponsor Research Review, November 17, 2016 System Importance Measures (SIMs) Family of measures that rank systems based on their impact on the overall SoS performance. They help in strategically building resilience into an architecture. Decision Tools: Multi-Stakeholder Dynamic Optimization (MUSTDO) How do we coordinate planning between local and SoS-level stakeholders? Investigators: Dr. Daniel DeLaurentis Dr. Karen Marais Dr. Navindran Davendralingam Center for Integrated Systems in Aerospace Purdue University West Lafayette, IN Contact E-mail: [email protected] RT-155: Assessing Development Disruptions and Dependencies in Analysis of Alternatives of System-of-Systems Navindran Davendralingam, Daniel DeLaurentis, Karen Marais, Zhemei Fang, Cesare Guariniello, Rakshit Chandrahasa 0 500 1000 1500 2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ANTICIPATED CAPABILITY TIME Exact Value_Centralized Approximate Value_Decentralized MUSTDO ensures that the SoS participants’ objectives align with the SoS manager’s objective PEO LCS Objective ASW MCM SUW PEO LCS Objective ASW MCM SUW Decision Tools: Robust Portfolio Optimization (RPO) Decision support approach from operations research to identify portfolios of systems by leveraging performance against risk under various types of uncertainty Performance Efficiency Frontiers for Tradespace Analysis Mission Package Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 Portfolio 3 ASW Variable Depth - - - Multi Fcn Tow X X - Lightweight tow - - X MCN RAMCS II - - - ALMDS (MH-60) X X X SUW N-LOS Missiles X - - Griffin Missiles - X X Seaframe ckage System 1 X - - & Combat ackage System 2 - X - Management ackage System 3 - - X Portfolios generated on efficiency frontier for user ASW Participant (develops systems (e.g. UAV)) SUW Participant (develops systems (e.g. ship)) Transfer Contract SoS Manager (e.g. PEO LCS) (Available Resources) t1 t2 t3 states decisions time Approximate Dynamic Programming - “Acknowledged” SoS - SoS manager (PEO LCS) owns resources - SoS participants (ASW, SUW, MCM) compete for resources to develop individual systems More questions can be addressed by SODA and SDDA, for example: • Which systems are critical to SoS performance? What are the technical risks in the SoS? • What is the impact of partial/total system failures during operation? Systems Developmental/Operational Dependency Analysis (SODA/SDDA) Assessing the impact of developmental schedule and operational dependencies Architecture A Architecture B 4. Trade-off between risks and capabilities. Architecture B, though being more risky in terms of delays, can achieve full capabilities earlier than A in absence of delays Combined SDDA and SODA show how partial capabilities evolve over time. Sub: submarine. Surf: surface. Det: detection. Eng: engagement SDDA shows how development delays in systems propagate in an interdependent network. What systems are critical in three Naval Warfare architectures? 1. Initial delay (weeks) in individual systems showed as blue contours 2. Due to dependencies, delays propagate. Colored bars show how individual system delays impact the final development time of the whole SoS (Green or no filling: delay is absorbed. Orange: entire individual delay propagates. Red: initial delay causes even larger final delay) 3. Comparison of different architectures: B has more critical systems than A and C in terms of delay impact SDI and SDCI (lower is better) Resilience and Mitigation Effectiveness(SDMI) Summary SDI and SDCI (lower is better) Disruption Criticality (SDI), and Conditional Importance for Specific Mitigation(SDCI) Disruptions SDI D What is the impact of an unmitigated disruption on the SoS? SDCI D,M How important is a disruption given that its impact is mitigated? SDMI D,M How effective is a mitigation measure? SoS resilience curves System Importance Measures (SIM) analysis Disruption impacts Recovery options Design Changes Original Resilience Plot Updated Resilience Plot • Transition of AWB software to NSWC Dahlgren Division • Transition of AWB software to MITRE Corporation
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