Overview of ARS Presentationsand Review of EI Data Sets

AoH Meeting, Salt Lake CitySeptember 21-22, 2004

Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Overview• Part 1 (Today)

– WRAP Strategic Plan, Phases 1 & 2– Review of Emissions Inventory data used as inputs

for interim modeling efforts– Review of basic EI summaries– Suggestions for better resolution of EI data

• Part 2 (Today)– Incorporating monitoring, modeling and EI data into

AoH analysis– Discussion of regional site clusters

• Part 3 (Tomorrow)– Review of AoH report outline

WRAP Strategic PlanPhase I2003-05

Phase II2005-07

Purpose: Dry run for Phase II. Refine and apply Phase Iapproaches for SIP/TIPpurposes.

Scale: Regional. Regional and subregional.

Apportionment: 96/02 source contributions.Areas each plan to address.

2002 source contributions.Reduction obligations.

Strategies: Identify options, screen. Cost/benefit, select, design.

Communication: Public education. Public acceptance.

Major State/Tribalsubmittals:

2002 emission inventory. Modeling run specifications.

Phase I – Data Sets

• Emissions Inventories– Currently available

• Modeling Data– RMC to present some results tomorrow

(9/22), more by November• Monitoring Data

– IMPROVE aerosol data available. DRI to present regression analyses at AoH workgroup meeting in November.

Emissions Data Set• EPA 2002 NEI not available until 12/05 →

WRAP facilitated development of “interim” 2002 Emissions– Point– Area– Mobile (On-Road & Non-Road)– Road Dust (Paved & Unpaved)– Fire– Windblown Dust– Biogenics– Modeling Domain Boundary Conditions

Point and Area Sources (EH Pechan)Sector WRAP States CENRAP StatesPoint Sources EGUs ETS/CEM data and EIA-767

based estimates for 2002WRAP 1996 point source file

Copper smelters SO2 emissions provided by smelter companies

Not applicable

Non-utilities, non-smelter IAS model projections from 1996 to 2002Year 2000 facility-level SO2 emissions substituted for major 9-State emitters

IAS model projection from 1996 to 2002

Area Sources Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimates

Applied 1999-2002 growth factors to 1999 NEI area source emission estimates

• EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico

Mobile Sources (ENVIRON)• Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base

year and four future years – 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018– 2003 Emissions used for “interim” 2002

• On-road (EPA MOBILE6 and PART5)• Off-road (EPA NONROAD2000)• Road Dust (interpolated between 1996 and 2018)

• One known limitation:– For off-road emissions, NONROAD2000

overestimates VOC (~13%), NOx (~35%), PM2.5 (~28%) and SO2 (~72%).

– CA provided estimates directly, so these errors don’t apply to CA

• EI includes US States, Canada and Mexico

EI Coverage for Point, Area and Mobile Sources

Area Source Em issions (tons/yr)

VO C

NO X

SO 2

PM C

PM 2.5

NH3

959 953361 1905763

Fire Emissions (WRAP)

• Actual 2002 wildland fire and prescribed fire emission inventories– Specific location, date, size and fuel

loading for each fire event.• EI includes WRAP states only

Windblown Dust (RMC)• Modeled using:

– Land Use/Land Cover (LULC)• BELD3, NALCC, NLCD

– Soil Characteristics• STATSGO; Soil Landscape of Canada; Intl. Soil Reference and Information

Centre

– Meteorological Data• 2002 36-km MM5

– Agricultural Data• BELD3, RUSLE2, CTIC

• EI includes modeling domain

Biogenics Emissions (RMC)

• Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3)– Vegetation Data: Biogenic Emissions

Landuse Database (BELD3)– Meteorological Data (MM5v3)

• Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS3)

• EI includes US states

Boundary Conditions (RMC)

RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/vistas/inputs/gifs/BC/vistas.geoschem.mean.so4.gif

Area S ource E m iss ions (tons/yr)

VO C

NO X

SO 2

PM C

PM 2.5

NH 3

1000 950,000 1,900,000

Pie Chart Representation of Area Emissions by State/Province

Fire E m issions (tons/yr)

VO C

N O X

SO 2

PM C

PM 2.5

N H3

7000 550,000 1,100,000

Pie Chart Representation of Fire Emissions by State

Gridded Representation of CMAQ Wind Blown Dust Model Emissions Inputs

RMC: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/wb_dust2002/scen_d/PMFINE/PMFINE_yearly.scen_d.gif

County-level Representation of CO Area Source NOX

C olorado A rea Source N O xtons/year

0 - 3030 - 100100 - 200200 - 500500 - 700700 - 13001300 - 2600N o D ata

WRAP NOX Emissions Summary

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY

tons

/yr

Biogenics

Road DustNon-Road Mobile

On-Road Mobile

FiresArea

Point

WRAP States Representation of Emissions

WRAP SO2 Emissions Summary

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

AZ CA CO ID MT NV NM ND OR SD UT WA WY

tons

/yr

Biogenics

Road Dust

Non-Road MobileOn-Road Mobile

Fires

AreaPoint

WRAP States Representation of Emissions

California Emissions Comparison

• EI comparison: WRAP interim 2002 and CA reported 2003

• Differences in EI reporting:– Differences in point and area binning– CA reports reactive organic gases (ROG),

WRAP reports volatile organic compounds (VOC) - specific pollutants differ in some cases

– CA reports SOx, WRAP reports SO2• EI comparison reasonable, consistent with

known differences

California Emissions ComparisonCalifornia 2002 "Interim" vs. 2003 Reported Emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

NOXInterim

NOXReported

VOCInterim

ROGReported

SO2Interim

SOXReported

PM2.5Interim

PM2.5Reported

PMCInterim

PMCReported

Tho

usan

d T

ons/Y

ear

.

Road DustOff-Road MobileOn-Road MobileFiresAreaPoint

EI Temporal and Spatial Resolution

• 2002 interim modeling efforts utilize temporal and spatial resolution of EI data for states and boundary conditions

• Level of detail of EI temporal and spatial resolution in summary products to be determined by AoH Work Group (opinions?)

• Following examples can be generated for all pollutant sources/states

Arizona 2002 PM2.5 Fire Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Jan-02

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02

Aug-02

Sep-02

Oct-02

Nov-02

Dec-02

tons

WildfireRx FireAg Fire

↑ ~9000

2002 Biogenic VOC Emissions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

Jan-02

Feb-02

Mar-02

Apr-02

May-02

Jun-02

Jul-02

Aug-02

Sep-02

Oct-02

Nov-02

Dec-02

tons

/yr

CaliforniaArizonaColoradoNorth Dakota

CO Area Source NOX (Hatch)C olorado A rea Source N O x

tons/year

0 - 3030 - 100100 - 200200 - 500500 - 700700 - 13001300 - 2600N o D ata

CO Area Source NOX (Density)

C olorado Area Source N O xtons/year

Each Dot = 10 U nitsDots for m ax data va lue = 255