Overview of CIRA and NESDIS Global TC Services

Presented byJohn Knaff

NOAA/NESDIS Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch

Fort Collins, CO USA

ForThe WMO Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Course

September 14, 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

2

Purpose

• This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

3

Outline

• NESDIS Services (operational / real-time)– Center/intensity fixes– TC surface winds– Rainfall– Total Precipitable Water (TPW)

• CIRA Services (real-time)– Genesis– TC realtime

• Imagery• Heat Content• Experimental products

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

4

NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch

• Small group of satellite analysts co-located with several National Centers (OPC, HPC, EMC)– They provide tropical cyclone fixes

• Subjective Dvorak• Microwave

– Monitor several automated products.– Provide other services (e.g., volcanoes)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

5

NESDIS Satellite Services Divisionhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html

Positions/Intensities

Rainfall

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

6

Center/Intensity Fixes

• Center fixes with Dvorak T-numbers– http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html – Active storms near the top– Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom– Archive of past storms near the top.

Position T-number/Current Intensity

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

7

• Microwave fixes– http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.html– Active storms near the top– Southern Hemisphere information near the bottom

Center/Intensity Fixes

Position Source

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

8

Intensity (objective, automated)http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.html

Nicely compliments subjective Dvorak by providing more frequent estimates of position and intensity…. (hourly)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

9

Surface Winds• Multi-platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind

Analysis (MTCSWA)– http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html

Available ~ 1 hour after synoptic hour

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

10

Surface Winds (MTCSWA)

What it is• Best estimate of TC wind

structure (1-minute @ 10 m over land and water) and resulting MSLP based upon1. Current intensity, latitude, and

the Infrared satellite imagery (analog winds; Mueller et al. (2006))

2. Scatterometry3. Cloud/Feature Drift Winds (>

600 hPa)4. Balanced winds calculated from

the AMSU Microwave Sounder

What it is NOT• An intensity fix• A position fix

13 Sept 2011

AMSU refers to theAdvanced Microwave Sounding Unit

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

11

Surface Winds (MTCSWA)Example Weaknesses

• Estimating small radii of maximum winds (RMWs)

• Estimating multiple RMW• Weak systems are

represented as too symmetric

• Hurricane force winds are too extensive for very strong systems (> 95 kt, 1-minute)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

12

Surface Winds

• Ocean wind vectors/speeds– ASCAT

• http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php

– WindSAT• http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/

WindSATData.php– SSMI (Speed)

• http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMIData.php

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

13

Surface Wind (OVW)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

14

Rainfall Potential

• Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (ETRaP)– http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

15

Rainfall Potential (eTRaP)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

1613 Sept 2011

TPWhttp://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/bTPW/index.html

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

18

From CIRA

• CIRA Services (real-time)– Genesis– TC realtime

• Imagery• Heat Content• Experimental products

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

19

Experimental Genesis Product

• Global 24-h genesis probabilities– North and South Atlantic – North/South West Pacific – North/South East Pacific– North/South Indian Ocean

• Must be understood… probabilities are low, but can exceed 30 times climatology.

• http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/

13 Sept 2011

20

Most Important Predictors

• Same predictors most important in all basins• However, rank of importance varies

NORMALIZED COEFFICIENTS NATL NEP NWP NIO SIO SPAC

Clim Formation Prob 1.6 1.6 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.4Circulation (850-mb) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.5 1.8Cold Cloud Coverage 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7

Distance to Existing TC 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.7

N. Indian Ocean

S. Indian Ocean

N.W. Pacific

S. Pacific

N.E. Pacific

N. Atlantic

S. Atlantic

64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference3 March 2010

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

21

Main Page

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

22

Each Basin

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

23

Each Basin

13 Sept 2011

24

S. Hemisphere (2009)

3 March 2010

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.00

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Reliability

TCFP Producty = x

Forecast Probability (%)

Obs

erve

d Re

lativ

e Fr

eque

ncy

(%)

0.0 2.7 4.8 6.7 8.9 10.8

12.8

14.4

1E+00

1E+04

1E+08

Frequency

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 901000

20

40

60

80

100

Relative Operating Characteris-tic

TCFP ProductClimatologyy = x

False Alarm Rate (%)

Prob

abili

ty o

f Det

ectio

n (%

)

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) Product – S. Hemisphere 2010 Verification

Example: Cumulative TCFP formation probabilities over SW Pacific sub-basin (blue), climatology (black) and observed times within 24hrs of TC formation (red circles).

Red Circles on Peaks HitsPeaks without red circles False Alarms

Red circles not on peaks Misses

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

26

CIRA/RAMMB TC-Realtime

What it is• Real-time global tropical

cyclone information portal– Current storm details

(JTWC)– Recent histories– Imagery– Special products– Experimental products

• Historical archive

What it is not• Official• Operational• Tied to the RMSC

forecasts/advisories (save Miami/Honolulu)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

27

Currently Active Storms

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

28

Active Storm

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

29

Some Useful ProductsInfrared Image Loops AMSU Image Loops

Also 2-km version with a BD enhancement applied for Dvorak analysis

SH192011 - Tropical Cyclone BUNE

13 Sept 2011

30

Some Useful ProductsAMSU-based Intensities

AMSU-based shear / deep layer mean flow.

Examples from ATU (2011)

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

31

Some Useful ProductsOceanic Heat Content Water Vapor Imagery

13 Sept 2011

Courtesy of NRL (NCODA –based)

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

32

Summary

• This presentation provides a brief overview of operational services available from NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA/RAMMB that are applicable for monitoring and forecasting Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones

• A list of URLs discussed within are provided on the next slide.

13 Sept 2011

WMO Southern Hemisphere TC Workshop

33

URLs Discussed

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/index.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mipositions.htmlhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/adt.htmlhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.htmlhttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/WindSATData.php http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/SSMIData.php http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/ http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

13 Sept 2011