Overview of GCAP Project October 12, 2007

Harvard University

PI: JacobCo-Is: Byun, Fu, Mickley, Seinfeld, Streets, RindAlso: Wu, Liao, Lam, Li, Yoshitomi, Smith-Downey, Pye, Kim, Lerner, Leibensperger

2000-2050change inclimate

2000-2050change inpollutantemissions

BC energy emissions

2000-2050 change in U.S. air quality

Ozone episode, July 2007

GCAP Phase 2: How will global change affect U.S. air quality and mercury deposition rates?

Precursor emissions from Streets

archive met fields

GEOS-CHEM

Global chemistry model

CMAQ

Regional chemistry model

1950 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

GISS general circulation model

Spin-up

MM5 Mesoscale

model

archive chemistry

archive met fields

changing greenhouse gases

Basic blueprint for GCAP project

GISS GCM1950-2050 transient climate

simulation

Compare 2000 and 2050 climate and emissions

Archiveresults

GEOS-CHEM global O3-PM-Hg

simulation

MM5 mesoscaledynamics simulation

CMAQregional O3-PM-Hg simulation

boundaryconditions

met fields

met fields

boundaryconditions

emissions emissions

GCAP Phase 2: How will global change affect U.S. air quality and mercury deposition to U.S. ecosystems?

GCAP Phase 1 Publications

• Streets et al., On the future of carbonaceous aerosol emissions, JGR, 2004.

• Mickley et al., Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States, GRL, 2004.

• Liao et al., Role of climate change in global predictions of future tropospheric ozone and aerosols, JGR, 2005.

• Rind et al., Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation models, JGR, 2007.

• Wu et al., Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?, JGR, 2007.

• Liao et al., Biogenic secondary organic aerosol over the United States: Comparison of climatological simulations with observations, JGR, 2007.

• Wu et al., Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States, submitted, 2006.

• Wu et al., Effect of 2000-2050 global change on background ozone in the United States, in progress, 2007.

• Fu et al., MICS-Asia II: Modeling gaseous pollutants and evaluating an advanced modeling system over east Asia, Atmos. Env., 2007

Emissions

Model 2’ climate + AQ

Model 3 development

GCAP debut and evaluation

Global change + AQ

Regional model results

Interhemispheric gradient in CFC-11 in different GISS GCMs

Model 3 has more realistic interhemispheric transport than some of the other models. Rind et al. 2007.

Model 3

obs

Model E

Trends in carbonaceous aerosol emissions:

For anthropogenic BC, all scenarios predict decreases by 2050. Streets et al., 2004.

BC/Energy OC/Energy

Some highlights of Phase 1

Predicted changes in surface sulfate concentrations due solely to 2000-2100 climate change, Liao et al. 2006.

Greater precip at high latitudes

Weaker Hadley cell

Greater OH, H2O2, and ozone concs over urban areas

surface ozone surface PM2.5

Results from GEOS-Chem/CMAQ interface for China, Fu et al.

Harvard results: to be shown later today. ppt

New goals for Phase 2:

• Analyze impact of different climate and emission scenarios on U.S. air quality (e.g., A1, B1, B2, ACCENT).

•Examine impact of 2000-2050 changes in anthropogenic emissions on intercontinental transport to the United States

• Investigate how global change will affect mercury deposition in U.S. ecosystems.

.• Improve coupling between global and

regional climate models.

JJA 1990s temperatures from the GISS-GCM and MM5, mean over 5 summers, Lynn et al.

GCAP Phase 2 flow plan.

2007 2008 2009 2010

Argonne

GISS

Global Hg emissions

Model 3 development + support

Harvard GCAP A1, B1, B2 ACCENT scenarios

Caltech Aerosol evaluation and analysis

UTenn Regional chemical + Hg simulations

UHouston

O3 + Hg analysis

MM5 nudging + stepwise downscaling

MM5 STE and tropopause heights

Regional Hg emissions

ACCENT scenarios

Arrows show interaction, not deadlines.

Year 1 – official start date May 07

Argonne: •Develop global emission projections for mercury for different IPCC scenarios

Harvard/ GISS: •Run GISS GCM 1950-2050 simulations for IPCC A2, B1, and B2 scenarios•Interpret results for on-line pollution tracers •Archive output for GEOS-Chem and MM5

Harvard/ Caltech: •Run GEOS-Chem ozone-aerosol simulations for 2000 and 2050: ~5-year

ensembles, different IPCC scenarios, interpret results•Archive output for CMAQ

U Tenn/ Harvard/ Caltech: •Run CMAQ simulations for each IPCC scenario, interpret results

U Houston: •Improve GISS-MM5 dynamical interface through stepwise downscaling•Investigate the effect of in-domain nudging with GISS met fields in MM5

Year 2

All: • Continue and publish work from Year 1 Argonne: • Downscale mercury emission projections in the United States for CMAQ

Harvard: • Run GEOS-Chem mercury simulations for the 2000 and 2050 GCM atmospheres (5-year ensembles) of each IPCC scenario, interpret results.• Archive output for CMAQ.

UTenn/ Harvard: • Run CMAQ mercury simulations for the 2000 and 2050 GCM atmospheres, interpret results

U Houston: • Investigate and reconcile GISS and MM5 simulations of tropopause height and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

Year 3

All: • Continue and publish work from Year 2

Harvard/U Tenn/ Caltech: • Run 2000-2050 GEOS-Chem using the ACCENT scenarios• Downscale chemistry using CMAQ• Interpret results

Tasks/ Issues leftover from GCAP phase 1:

• Harvard: Conduct EOF analyses of ozone regional variability in the United States – on the back burner (Leibensperger)

• U Tenn: Run CMAQ with 2000 and 2050 climate – ongoing

• Harvard/ Caltech/ U Tenn: Run ozone and PM simulations for 2050 B1 climate – moved to GCAP phase 2.

Other tasks, goals?

Understand ozone response to temperature change in Southeast U.S.

Analyze trends in cyclone variability and relationship to pollution episodes.

Explore correlations of PM2.5 with met variables for potential future-climate statistical projections (already being done for ozone).

Improve GCM-GEOS-chem interface: boundary layer height, vertical diffusion. . .

Compare IPCC near-term emissions trajectories with 2000-2007 observed trends.

GCAP Phase 2 flow plan.

2007 2008 2009 2010

Argonne

GISS

Global Hg emissions

Model 3 development + support

Harvard GCAP A1, B1, B2 ACCENT scenarios

Caltech Aerosol evaluation and analysis

UTenn Regional chemical + Hg simulations

UHouston

O3 + Hg analysis

MM5 nudging + stepwise downscaling

MM5 STE and tropopause heights

Regional Hg emissions

ACCENT scenarios

For chemistry, the winner is Garhard Ertl “for pioneering work in surface chemistry, a specialty that . . . sheds light on the activity . . . on the surface of ice crystals in the stratosphere.“ NYT

For peace, winners are Al Gore and IPCC.

2007 Nobel Prizes recognize Atmospheric Sciences!