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Overview of MFS Statistics
Skopje seminar
2-5 October 2013
Jean-Marc Israël
Head of Division,
Monetary and Financial Statistics
ECB
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 2
Contents
1
2
3
Overview of monetary and financial statistics
Case study: MFI statistics
Production and dissemination of statistics – Challenges and international context
4
5 Selected results
Case study: MIR statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
• Each country has its statistics• GDP• population• inflation • money• external balance, …
• A monetary union is a single economic entity• common currency and monetary policy • free movement of persons, goods and services, capital flows • increasingly integrated (financial) markets
• A monetary union needs high quality statistics and indicators to• assess the economic developments in the whole area • base its forecasts• assess the transmission of monetary policy decisions on the economy• analyse and assess its financial stability• support the conduct of other policies (e.g. financial integration); and• other functions may be looming (e.g. micro-prudential supervision)
Overview of MFS Statistics 3
Statistics production and dissemination
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Is it not possible to simply add up national data?
•Even if and when national data are- timely,- at the same frequency and- accurate enough…
•concepts and definitions may still diverge (following international standards which may also need to be interpreted)
•some classifications differ, e.g. intra-transactions need to be classified as “domestic” of the monetary union and, thus, allocated to SNA/ESA sectors – once asymmetry-free
•institutions of the monetary union (e.g. the ECB) are residents of the union, but not of any country (even where they are located)
Overview of MFS Statistics 4
Decentralised statistics processingChallenges for euro area statistics (1/2)
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Start from national statistics
Harmonise concepts, definitions and methods to– increase comparability – enable consolidation, where appropriate – ensure the necessary coverage and level of disaggregation
Cost-conscious approach
– while statistics are a public good, and good policy basedon good data may be invaluable for business, they have a cost
– simple, automated reporting is less costly
– financial transactions and positions get (more) complex
– security-by-security minimises the reporting burden
Central banks maintain granular datasets, e.g. a common securities database, to identify, classify, value individual assets
– securities (reference data, aggregated and individual) issues and holdings
– granular lending data, in part based on credit registers, are also under study
Overview of MFS Statistics 5
Decentralised statistics processingChallenges for euro area statistics (2/2)
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Based on international statistical standards – System of National Accounts 1993 (and stepwise 2008) – European System of Accounts 1995 and stepwise 2010, and– IMF Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual 2000 (being updated)
The contribution of ECB’s DG-S to the IMF Manual was substantial
Complemented by Compilation guides and Text books
common methodological definitions and concepts
laid down for the euro area in
Regulations (ECB/2001/13, as recast in ECB/2008/32; ECB/2001/18, as amended by ECB/2009/7; ECB/2007/8; ECB/2008/30)
MFS (recast) Guideline (ECB/2007/9, amended by ECB/2008/31 and ECB/2009/23) and Manuals and/or Guidance notes
All under a revision process (close to completion)
Overview of MFS Statistics 6
Managing Eurosystem / ESCB statisticsHarmonisation and best practices (1/3)
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Main ECB monetary and financial statistics manuals
•Manual on MFI Balance Sheet Statistics April 2012
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/manualmfibalancesheetstatistics201204en.pdf
•Manual on MFI Interest Rate Statistics October 2003http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/mfiintrestratestatisticsmanualen.pdf
•Manual on Investment Funds Statistics May 2009http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/manualinvestmentfundstatistics200905en.pdf
•Guidance Notes on the Definitions of ‘Financial Vehicle Corporations’ and ‘Securitisation’ under Regulation ECB/2008/30 February 2012
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/guidancenotedefinitionsfvcsecuritisation2012en.pdf
•Monetary Financial Institutions and Markets Statistics Sector Manual March 2007http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/mfimarketstatisticssectormanual200703en.pdf
Overview of MFS Statistics 7
Managing Eurosystem / ESCB statisticsHarmonisation and best practices (2/3)
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
• Plus, based on experience in collecting, compiling and disseminating statistics in EU Member States
• level-playing field: even-handed treatment
• sharing of information across nationalcompiling agencies and across Member States
• increasing use of common tools and methods
a set of best practices for a medium-term convergence
Overview of MFS Statistics 8
Managing Eurosystem / ESCB statisticsHarmonisation and best practices (3/3)
to ensure: • fair competition • similar and light reporting burden• consistency and • accuracy
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 9
Contents
1
2
3
Overview of monetary and financial statistics
Case study: MFI statistics
Production and dissemination of statistics – Challenges and international context
4
5 Selected results
Case study: MIR statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Share of total assets by sub-sector (percentage)
Overview of MFS Statistics 10
The financial sector in the euro area - Overview
EUR trillion
34.4of which Money Market Funds (MMFs) 1.0of which Credit Institutions (CIs) 33.2
7.42.16.7
50.7
AssetsMonetary Financial Institutions excluding Eurosystem (MFIs)
Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds (ICPFs)Financial Vehicle Corporations (FVCs)Investment Funds other than MMFs (IFs)Total Assets
Exluding other financial intermediaries other than IF and FVC.
Data as of 2012Q2, ICPF data as of 2012Q1)
Euro area GDP in 2nd quarter of 2012: EUR 2.3 trillion
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
The E(S)CB collects and compiles statistics for:
The financial sector and its sub-sectors (e.g. credit institutions)
A list (register) of financial institutions in the EU
Financial instruments (e.g. loans, securities)
Outstanding amounts (e.g. balance sheet items)
Transactions and growth rates (e.g. annual growth of M3)
“Prices” (interest rates, yields, exchange rates)
Various breakdowns (e.g. counterparty sector, maturity, currency)
Overview of MFS Statistics 11
E(S)CB statistics: Overview
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Monetary aggregates and counterparts: balance sheet statistics on banks and money market funds (e.g. M3, credit)
Statistics on average interest rates (market interest rates, retail interest rates for deposits, loans for consumption, housing, firms)
Statistics on assets and liabilities of investment funds (bond, equity, hedge funds etc.)
Statistics on Financial Vehicle Corporations engaged in securitisation and banks’ securitisation June 2011
Statistics on Insurance Corporations and Pension Funds June 2011
Securities issues; yield curves; financial markets price, volume and structure; payments and securities settlement statistics
Overview of MFS Statistics 12
Monetary and financial statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Register of financial Institutions and Affiliates Database
A register is key to identify the reporting population(s) (and stratify it/them)
Key to identify and classify counterparts (by respondents)
Key also to identify (financial) groups structures
A register is essential for statistics, and its value added is even greater if it becomes multi-purposes, e.g.
• ‘Close links’ for monetary policy operations
• Identification of payment service institutions, and
• Supporting the Single Supervisory Mechanism
Overview of MFS Statistics 13
Monetary and financial statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 14
Contents
1
2
3
Overview of monetary and financial statistics
Case study: MFI statistics
Production and dissemination of statistics – Challenges and international context
4
5 Selected results
Case study: MIR statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 15
Case study ECB statistics: The ECB’s monetary policy and MFI b/s statistics
Full set of information
Analysis of money and credit based on
MFI statistics
Analysis of economic
dynamics and shocks
Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions based on a unified overall assessment
of the risks to price stability
Primary objective of price stability
Economicanalysis
MonetarMonetaryy
analysisanalysis
Macro-economic
Projections
Cross-checking
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Other uses of MFI balance sheet statistics:
•Minimum reserves
•Economic analysis
•Financial stability
•Financial integration
•Statistical support to the ESRB
Overview of MFS Statistics 16
Case study: MFI statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs)
= financial institutions (= money-issuing sector of the euro area)
= central banks
+ resident credit institutions as defined in EU law
+ other resident financial institutions whose business is
- to receive deposits and/or close substitutes for deposits from entities other than MFIs and,
- for their own account (at least in economic terms), to grant credits and/or make investments in securities
Overview of MFS Statistics 17
Case study: Defining MFIs
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 18
Case study: Defining the statistical balance sheet
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 19
Case study: Collecting & compiling MFI b/s statistics
1. NCBs collect balance sheets from all MFIs resident in the country
2. NCBs transmit aggregated national balance sheet to ECB
3. ECB aggregates (sums) national balance sheets
Euro area MFI aggregated balance sheet
4. The aggregated balance sheet is then consolidated
= Netting the aggregated positions between MFIs in the euro area
Euro area MFI consolidated balance sheet
5. Main euro area aggregates are seasonally adjusted by the ECB.
Euro area monetary aggregates
and counterparts.
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 20
Case study: Collecting & compiling MFI b/s statistics
• However aggregated data may not suffice for in-depth analysis
• Detailed breakdowns are requested by users following different analytical needs, e.g. monetary analysis, monetary policy transmission, collateral management, financial stability
• Statisticians need to become more proactive and responsive to ever increasing and rapidly changing needs
Analytical Credit datasetbased on granular loan data
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 21
Contents
1
2
3
Overview of monetary and financial statistics
Case study: MFI statistics
Production and dissemination of statistics – Challenges and international context
4
5 Selected results
Case study: MIR statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
What is MIR?
“MFI interest rates” statistical data are…
• interest rates and corresponding business volumes
• applied by MFIs (credit institutions)
• on deposits and loans
• to households (HHs) and non-financial corporations (NFCs)
• resident in the euro area
• denominated in euro
• collected by the ESCB from MFIs
Overview of MFS Statistics 22
Case study: MIR statistics - Definition
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
“MFI interest rates” are… in great demand
•cost of borrowing indicators are published since this summer
(see Monthly Bulletin article in Aug. 2013 and PR in Sept. 2013)
•selected (national) business volumes for publication
•possible extension to better capture loans to SMEs
Overview of MFS Statistics 23
Case study: MIR statistics - Definition
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 24
Case study: MIR statistics - Breakdowns
Breakdown by
Counterpart sector Households (HHs)Non-financial corporations (NFCs)
Sole proprietors(doctors, architects, dentists…)
Business coverageOutstanding amounts
New business
Maturity Original maturity Period of notice Initial rate fixation
Purpose of the loans to HHs
For consumption For house purchase For other purposes
Size of the loans to NFCs
Up to EUR 0.25 mnBetween EUR 0.25 mn and EUR 1 mn
Over EUR 1 million
Collateralisation With collateral Total
Special instruments
Revolving loans and overdrafts
Credit card credit
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu © Overview of MFS Statistics 25
Contents
1
2
3
Overview of monetary and financial statistics
Case study: MFI statistics
Production and dissemination of statistics – Challenges and international context
4
5 Selected results
Case study: MIR statistics
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Evolution of M3 aggregate and loans to non-MFIs excluding general government
(percentage change)
Overview of MFS Statistics 26
Money and credit
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Sectoral contribution to annual growth rate of M3
(percentage point contribution)
Overview of MFS Statistics 27
M3 dynamics by sector
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Monetary policy transmission mechanism and financial stability
Overview of MFS Statistics 28
Transmission mechanisms
Rubric
www.ecb.europa.eu ©
Nominal MFI interest rate on short-term loans to NFCs (% per annum)
Overview of MFS Statistics 29
MFI interest rate on short-term loans