Overview of Numerical Weather Predictions at NMC/CMA

GONG Jiandong

National Meteorological Center (NMC)China Meteorological Administration

(CMA)

CMA NWP Structure in Head-Quarter

• Two units in CMA Head-quarter for numerical weather model development, (not include air pollution model and climate model)

1. Numerical Model Prediction Division at NMC (NMC/NWPD)

2. Center of Numerical Prediction and Research at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA (CAMS/CNPR)

• CMA/CAMS/CNPR is a numerical model research unit, established in 2000, focuses on CMA next generational unified Global and Regional analysis and prediction system (GRAPES), with about 20 researches.

18, 44%

13, 33%

9, 23%DrMasterBachel or

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

人数 1 5 5 26 3

40' s 50' s 60' s 70' s 80' s

65%

12.5%

(Total FTE): 40

77.5 % 77.5 % have have Master and Dr. Master and Dr. DegreeDegree

> 80% stuffs are > 80% stuffs are undertaking the undertaking the research and research and developmentdevelopment

CMA/NMC/NWPD STUFFS

Education

Education Age

CMA/NMC model development in historyOperationa

l dateNumerical

ModelResoluti

onVertical Levels

Analysis Super-computer

1991.6 T42L9 320KM 9- lev OI CYBER

1992.3 LAFS 200KM 15- lev OI CYBER

1995.6 T63L16 200KM 16- lev OI CRAY-C92

1995.5 HLAFS 110KM 15- lev OI CRAY-C92

1997.6 T106L19 120KM 19- lev OI CRAY-C92

1998.4 0.5HLAFS 55KM 20- lev OI CRAY-C92

2002.9 T213L31 60KM 31- lev OI IBM-SP

2003.3 0.25HLAFS 27KM 20- lev OI IBM-SP

2006.8 GRAPES-Meso

30km 31-z lev

/35km

3DVar SP CLUSTER 1600

2006.12

T213/SSI 60KM 31- lev 3DVar SP CLUSTER 1600

0

20

40

60

80

100

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

RM

SE

48h

96h

144h

50rms

B T42L9 T63L16 T106L19 T213L31

OPERATIONAL GLOBAL NWP IN NMCRMSE OF 500HPA HEIGHT OVER NORTH HEMISPHERE

Other CMA/NMC model development in historyOperational

dateOperational Model Super-

computer

1998.6—>2000.8—>2004.6

Beijing Regional Meso-scale model—>

HuaBei Regional Meso-scale model（ HB-MM5）— >

NMC Meso-scale model

SP-2

Shenwei-1

1995.2005.6

Regional Typhoon Track Prediction（MTTP）Global Typhoon Track Prediction （ GMTTP）

CRAY-C92

IBM-SP

2000.32006.12

Global EPS based on T106L19, SV,32members

Global EPS based on T213L31, BGM,15 mem

Shenwei-1 SP-1600

1998.2002

Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system

Server

1999.2004.6

Forest Fire Alarm (model)

Forest Fire Meteorological Alarm system

CRAY-C92

IBM-SP

2001.6 City Air-pollution (47 cities) Shenwei-1

2006.12 Dust-storm Prediction system SP 1600

2006.12 Global Wave prediction system SP 1600

2007-2008 Operational Systems • Basic Operational Systems： (operataional date) • Global -3DVAR & Global Medium Range Forecast System（ T639L60,

T213L31＋ 3DVAR,2002.9/2006.12， ATOVS>90% ）• Meso-scale Forecast System（ GRAPES-MESO 2006.8 ） • Global Ensemble Prediction System（ T213L31-GEPS,15m， 2006.12 ） • Global Typhoon Track Prediction System（ T213-GTTP,2006.1 ）• Numerical Model Verification System（ 198x,199x ）• Numerical Model Operation Support System（ SMS， 2006.1)

• Basic Environment Prediction Systems ：• Global/Regional/EPS Wave Forecast System（ NMC-WAV,2005.8 ）• Regional Dust-Storm Prediction System（MM5/GRAPES,2006.12)• Nuclear pollution transport and dispersion model system （ T213/WRF-

HYSPLIT4,2001.9,2008.4 ）• UVI prediction System （ T213-SUV， 2004.6 ）• Forest-Fire Alert System（ T213-FIRE,2004.6)• Weather Modification Meteorological Condition system (GRAPES,2007)

Radio-sonde

Synop

Aircraft

Pilot

Ship

Conventional observations

AMSU-A n15,16

AMSU-B n15,16,17

Track wind

Operational model upgrade :T639L60• Use NCEP-GSI with T639L60 resolution, with eta

vertical coordinate to match model• Background error tuning.• Parallel upgrade to handle T639L60 resolution• NOAA 15/16/17 ATOVS 1b data assimilation tuning

• Base on T213L31 model, and upgrade in1. Linear Gaussian Grid (T213 T319)2. SETTLS (Stable Extrapolation Two-Time_level

Scheme), with kindly help of ECMWF3. With Rayleigh friction above 9hPa4. Upgrade new cloud and cumulus parameterization5. Upgrade land-surface data6. Upgrade land-surface model initialization scheme

东亚年平均５００百帕高度距平相关系数

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1

1. 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

时效／天

639

nwp

北半球年平均５００百帕高度距平相关系数

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1

1. 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

时效／天

639nwp

南半球年平均５００百帕高度距平相关系数

0

0. 2

0. 4

0. 6

0. 8

1

1. 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

时效／天

639nwp

Annual mean

East Asia 500hpa ACC NH 500hpa ACC

SH 500hpa ACC热带年平均５００百帕高度均方根误差

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

时效／天

639nwp

Tropical 500hpa RMSE

Bias

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

36h 60h 84h 108h 132h

小雨 T213

小雨 T639

中雨 T 213中雨 T639

大雨 T213

大雨 T639

暴雨 T213

暴雨 T639

大暴雨 T213

大暴雨 T639

TS

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

36h 60h 84h 108h 132h

小雨 T213

小雨 T639

中雨 T213

中雨 T639

大雨 T213

大雨 T639

暴雨 T213

暴雨 T639

大暴雨 T213

大暴雨 T639

Precipitation

The performance of the TC Track predict System

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

95

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Year

Mea

n t

rack

ero

ors

(km

)

24h

48h

72h

Mean track errors from 1995-2006

MTTP GMTTP

2007 Typhoon Track Forecast error (Km)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

24h 48h 72hf orecast t i me (hour)

mean fcst track error (km) 中国主观

日本主观

关岛主观

日本全球模式

日本台风模式

英国全球模式

中国业务系统

中国新系统

24h 48h 72h

CMA Offical 116.1 180.5 247.8

JMA Offical 120.5 209.2 270.6

NOAA Offical 101.2 169.3 245.1

JMA Global Model 120.2 181.9 245.0

JMA Typhoon Model 127.8 203.6 275.6

KMA Global Model 149.6 231.3 316.5

CMA Typhoon Operational Model CMA Typhoon Operational Model 163.6 267.0 391.6

CMA New Typhoon ModelCMA New Typhoon Model 118.3 200.1 271.9

Global Typhoon Track Ensemble Prediction System real-time Trial

RMSE (NH 500mb Height)average for 20060601-20060831

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)

RM

S er

rors

ACC (NH 500mb Height)average for 20060601-20060831

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10valid(day)

AC

C S

core

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

5 day

等概率 1/33=0.3

Original T106 EPS

Red line for best spread

New operational T213L31 EPS

ACC

Ensemble Mean

Control Run

预报天数

均方根误差

Global EPS upgrade

EPS mean error

Spread

Control Run

预报天数

WWRPBeijing 2008 Olympics Mesoscale

Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project (WWRP/B08RDP) MEP RDP participating systems:

CMA meso-scale EPS (NMC/CAMS) NCEP new version SREF EC regional EPS JMA global/meso-scale EPS NCAR WRF system Austrian weather service and Météo-France joint

system (ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME)

CMA/NMC JMA/MRI

EC NCEP ZAMG/FR

Rainfall observation More Products see http://www.b08rdp.org

Weather Modification Condition

UV index

Asia Dust Storm

Forest fire alarm

Global Wave

Global Wave Ensemble

Regional Wave

Fine-scale Wave

WAVEWATCH III

开县高桥镇

Noxious air dispersion

（ 23日 22时 -26日 20时 )

0-500米高度内传输路径

1500米高度上传输路径

3000米高度上传输路径

开县高桥镇

Distribute within 48 h

（ 23日 22时 -25日 20时 )

Global pollution transport and dispersion model system

5km regional pollution transport and dispersion model system

Various height transport height

Surface to 100m noxious gas dispersion (1hour

interval)

After started， can provide 1~5km, 1hour interval noxious gas transport and dispersion products within 30 minutes

CMA Next Generation Unified Model: GRAPES

Meso-scale configuration

Meso-scale configuration

Medium-RangeConfiguration

Medium-RangeConfiguration

Climate Configuration

Climate Configuration Ocean ModelOcean Model

Plug in interface: Multi-scale Physical and Chemical processes

Meso-scale processes

Meso-scale processes

Medium-rangeProcesses

Medium-rangeProcesses

ClimateProcesses

ClimateProcesses Ocean PhysicsOcean Physics

Meso-scale Analysis and

Prediction System

Forecast Model

Forecast Model

AdjointModel

AdjointModel

Multi-scale atmospheric unified dynamical structure

Global Analysis and Prediction

System

Climate Prediction

System

Ensemble Forecasts

Atmospheric Research

Sand & Dust Forecasts

Operational Implementation

Field exp. Simul. TC Forecasts

Nowcasting

Operationally implemented in NMC, RMCs (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Provinces, …); more than 50 group users (including universities, research institutions)

Training Tool

Toward Climate modeling

R_15km, G_60km

Model Application

GRAPESApplications

Assimilation3DVAR/4DVAR

Dynamical CoreFull compressible

HY/NH

GRAPESVert. CoodinateH. Terrain Flw.

Phy. SchemesFull Phy. package

ResolutionMulti-scales

Code Architec. Mod./Parall.

Time Integrat.Semi-Implicit

Space Integrat. Semi-Lagangian

GRAPES（ Global/Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System ）The project was launched since 2001. It is cosponsored and

supported by Chinese MOST and CMA.

New Advanced of NWP SystemM

od

el Fram

ewo

rk

Skill of Severe Weather Prediction

2006. 06. 01- 2007. 10. 31

0

0. 1

0. 2

0. 3

0. 4

0. 5

0. 6

≥ 0. 1mm ≥ 10mm ≥ 25mm ≥ 50mm ≥ 100mm

TS

24h 48h

Grapes-global will be put in parallel run this year

Northern Hemisphere

Southern Hemisphere

Annual Average of ACC of Grapes-global

2010 Operational Systems (planed)• Basic Operational Systems ： • Global -3DVAR & GFS ( T639L60＋ 3DVAR, GRAPES+3DVAR 50Km,

ATOVS+AIRS+GPS/COSMIC,+Track wind>90%, ）• Regional-3DVAR & Model（ GRAPES_Meso+3DVAR 15km,

ATOVS+Radar+AWS+GPS/MET >90%, 1hour GRAPES-RUC ） • Ensemble Prediction (T639L60control + T213L31/15-50 member, ET

perturbation, WRF/GRAPES-meso EPS, 15-50m, TIGGE products ） • Typhoon Track （ T639L60-GTTP, GRAPES-meso-RTTP,

Global/Regional Typhoon EPS ）• Verification （ 6 hour real-time verification, Real-time verification ）• Operation Support System (SMS+WEB+PrepIFS+Database+GRID)

• Basic Environment Prediction Systems ：• Wave Forecast（ T639L60-wave, 15/5km wave, wave-EPS ）• Environment Emergency （ T639L60-HYSPLIT, 15/5/1km HYSPLIT ）• Hydrological Forecast ( two way nest)• Others (Dust-storm, forest fire, weather modification, UV-index)

ECMWF

NCAR

CMA

LDM Server

Srv-1: LDM

LDM Server

Srv-2:

Srv-3: MARS(testing)

Srv-4: DB (testing)

InternetInternet

Srv-5:

Srv-6: FTP Service

LANLAN

集群内通过 GPFS共享数据

Infrastructure (1) – current design ( For MARS Modification)

备份 /恢复EMC Legato Networker

TyphoonTyphoon

NMC NMC UsersUsers

Data processing

磁盘阵列

GPFSFS-Manager

Srv-0: CSM Server

Receiving Data

Sending Data

Service for Users

Providing Data

TIGGE DATA ARCHIVE CENTER

Summary of TIGGE data at CMA

Data ProvideForecast

(Hour,day)Times/

DayStart date

Data Vol.(GB)

File number

ecmf(ECMWF) 360h, 15d 2 02/2007 31,708106,231,93

6

kwbc(NCEP) 384h, 16d 4 04/2007 1,427 20,802,492

egrr(UKMO) 360h, 15d 2 10/2006 6,285 51,314,600

rjtd(JMA) 216h, 9d 1 07/2007 976 16,978,800

babj(CMA) 240h, 10d 2 01/2007 11,512 33,499,620

ammc(BoM) 240h, 10d 2 05/2007 1,277 24,633,774

cwao(CMC) 384h, 16d 2 10/2007 546 12,357,387

lfpw(Meteo France)

60h, 2.5d 1 10/2007 8 408,132

Total 53,738266,226,74

1

(Data for Dec. 18. 2007)