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Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV as of end 2004
Total: 39.4 (35.9 – 44.3) million
Western & Central Europe
610 000[480 000 – 760 000]
North Africa & Middle East540 000
[230 000 – 1.5 million]
Sub-Saharan Africa25.4 million
[23.4 – 28.4 million]
Eastern Europe & Central Asia1.4 million
[920 000 – 2.1 million]
South & South-East Asia7.1 million[4.4 – 10.6 million]
Oceania35 000
[25 000 – 48 000]
North America1.0 million
[540 000 – 1.6 million]
Caribbean440 000
[270 000 – 780 000]
Latin America1.7 million
[1.3 – 2.2 million]
East Asia1.1 million
[560 000 – 1.8 million]
00003-E-2 – December 2004
Global estimates for adults and children end 2004
• People living with HIV
• New HIV infections in 2004
• Deaths due to AIDS in 2004
39.4 million [35.9 – 44.3 million]
4.9 million [4.3 – 6.4 million]
3.1 million [2.8 – 3.5 million]
00003-E-3 – December 2004
About 14 000 new HIV infections a day in 2004
• More than 95% are in low and middle income
countries
• Almost 2000 are in children under 15 years of age
• About 12 000 are in persons aged 15 to 49 years, of whom:— almost 50% are women— about 50% are 15–24 year olds
00003-E-4 – December 2004
Trends in Number of People Living with HIV infection 1980 - 2002 by WHO
Region
0
5.000.000
10.000.000
15.000.000
20.000.000
25.000.000
30.000.000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
AFRO
EURO
AMRO
WPRO
SEARO
EMRO
8.8%
Growth of the African epidemic
slowed down since 1997
Changes in the African epidemicwill greatly affect global numbers
HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-2001
20 – 39%
10 – 20%
5 – 10%
1 – 5%
0 – 1%
trend data unavailable
outside region
1986 1991
1996 2001
Source: UNAIDS/WHO July 2002
Large differences in severity within Africa:Southern >> Eastern and Central > Western
Source: UNAIDS/WHO July 2002
Trends in median HIV prevalence in the same antenatal sites by country and period, Southern Africa, 1997-2002
0
10
20
30
40
Botsw
ana
Mal
awi
Moza
mbiq
ue
Namib
ia
South A
frica
Swaz
iland
Zimba
bwe
1997-1998
1999-2000
2001-2002
The epidemic is leveling off at extremely high levels of prevalence
HIV prevalence by age and sex, Zambia DHS 2001-02
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Men
Women
Women get infected earlier than men, often under 25 years
Sex- and age-specific HIV prevalence, 1997-98 (n=370)
0 0
42
96
18
29
22
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
15 16 17 18 19
Age (years)
Per
cen
t (%
)
MenWomen
Kisumu: Multicentre Study
*Buve et al, AIDS 2001
Deaths at ages 15-34South Africa: 1980-2025
(Estimated and projected )
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Dea
ths
(th
ou
san
ds)
Without AIDS
With AIDS
1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025
Lifetime risk of AIDS death for 15-year-old boys, assuming unchanged or halved risk of becoming infected with HIV, selected countries
Source: Zaba B, 2000 (unpublished data)
Current adult HIV prevalence rate
Burkina Faso
Cambodia
Côte d’Ivoire
Kenya
South AfricaZambia
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Burkina FasoCambodia
Côte d’Ivoire
Kenya
South AfricaZambia
Zimbabwe
Botswana
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Ris
k o
f d
yin
g o
f A
IDS
current level of risk maintained
risk halved over next 15 years
Changes in life expectancyin selected African countries
with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005
with high HIV prevalence:ZimbabweSouth AfricaBotswana
with low HIV prevalence:MadagascarSenegalMali
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lif
e e
xp
ecta
ncy
(y
ears
)
1950– 1955
1955- 1960
1960-1965
1965-1970
1970-1975
1975-1980
1980-1985
1985-1990
1990-1995
1995-2000
2000-2005
HIV prevalence and deaths due to AIDS 2004
Living with HIV
% of total
Death due to AIDS
%
Sub-saharan Africa
25.4 mill 64% 2.3 mill 74%
Asia 8.2 mill 21% 541.000 17%
Latin America 1.7 mill 4% 95.000 3%
West Eur/US 1.6 mill 4% 22.500 0.7%
Eastern Europe 1.4 mill 3.6% 60.000 2%
Total 39.4 million 3.1 million
The Cycle of HIV Disease
1. Incidence of HIV Infection
3. Incidence AIDS
2. Prevalence of HIV Infection
4. Prevalence of AIDS
5. Mortality from AIDS