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© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team
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Page 1: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

Overview of the IPCC WGI Report

Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe

259 Authors from 39 Countries

WGI TSU Team

Page 2: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Key SPM Messages

19 Headlines on less than 2 Pages

2

> 1,140,000 words

Summary for

Policymakers

ca. 14,000 words

14 Chapters, Atlas

Page 3: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

3

Observation

Understanding

Future

Ch 2, 3, 4, 5

Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change

Page 4: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Fig

. S

PM

.1

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and

since the 1950s, many of the observed changes

are unprecedented over decades to millennia.

Anom

aly

(°C

) re

lative t

o 1

961

-1990

Page 5: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Fig. 3.1

© IPCC 2013

It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0-700 m)

warmed from 1971 to 2010, [...]. It is likely that the ocean

warmed between 700 and 2000 m from 1957 to 2009.

Change in upper ocean temperature (°C)

Page 6: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Energ

y (

10

21 J

oule

s)

Ocean warming dominates the

increase in energy stored in the

climate system, accounting for

more than 90% of the energy

accumulated between 1971 and

2010 (high confidence).

Box 3.1, Fig. 1 © IPCC 2013

Page 7: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

7

Observation

Understanding

Future

Ch 2, 3, 4, 5

Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change

Page 8: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon

dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have all

increased since 1750 due to human activity.

CO2: +40%

CH4: +150%

N2O: +20%

Fig

. 6.1

1

yr 0 − 1750

Page 9: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Fig

. S

PM

.5

© I

PC

C 2

013

CO2 provides

largest RF

Page 10: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)

Solar, Volcanic

Aerosols

CO2, CH4, N2O

Anthropogenic

Internal Variability

Observed

Fig. TS.10

The observed warming 1951−2010 is

approximately 0.6°C to 0.7°C.

© I

PC

C 2

013

Page 11: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Global mean warming since 1951 (°C)

Solar, Volcanic

Aerosols

CO2, CH4, N2O

Anthropogenic

Internal Variability

Observed

Fig. TS.10

It is extremely likely that human influence has

been the dominant cause of the observed

warming since the mid-20th century.

© I

PC

C 2

013

Page 12: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Fig. SPM.6

Human influence on the

climate system is clear.

© IPCC 2013

Page 13: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

13

Observation

Understanding

Future

Ch 2, 3, 4, 5

Ch 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Ch 11, 12, 13, 14 Atlas of Regional Change

Page 14: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

RCP8.5

CO2eq = 1313 ppm)

Fig

. S

PM

.8

RCP2.6

CO2eq = 475 ppm)

Page 15: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

Principles Governing IPCC Work (1998, 2003, 2006)

Annex I: Atlas of Global and

Regional Climate Projections

Maps for 3 time horizons

2016-35, 2046-65, 2081-2100

reference period 1986-2005

Fig

. A

I.3

Fig

. A

I.4

35 regions

42 global climate models

2 variables

Temperature, Precipitation

4 scenarios

RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5

2 seasons

temp: DJF, JJA (for temp)

precip: AMJJAS, ONDJFM

Page 16: Overview of the IPCC WGI Report - Climate Change 2013 · Overview of the IPCC WGI Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI TSU Team . Key SPM Messages 19

© Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude

www.climatechange2013.org Further Information


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