TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD Data and Tools for Linking Goods Movement, Air Quality, and
Transportation Infrastructure Decisions June 2-3, 2009
Overview of the Model Improvement Plan for the SCAG Heavy-Duty Truck Model
Jonathan NadlerManager, Transportation Modeling, Air Quality & Conformity
Southern California Association of Governments
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Presentation Overview
• SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project
• Background
• SCAG HDT Model– Existing and proposed enhancements
• SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward
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SCAG Comprehensive Goods Movement Project
• Multi-year, $3.9 Million Project
• Policy Analysis for 2012 RTP and Other Planning Studies
• Enhanced HDT Model Primary Analysis Tool for Goods Movement Policy Decisions
• Build Upon Foundations of Previous Planning Efforts– Resolve compatibility and connectivity issues– Detail project definitions/phasing– Refine costs, develop implementation and financing plans
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Project Tasks
Task 1: Administration and ManagementTask 2: Refined Public Outreach StrategyTask 3: Evaluate and Recommend Improvements to the SCAG HDT ModelTask 4: Truck Trip Data Collection and AnalysisTask 5: Needs Assessment of Industrial/Warehouse and Intermodal FacilitiesTask 6: HDT Model Enhancement and Model ValidationTask 7: Evaluation of the Goods Movement Element of the 2008 RTPTask 8: New Technology Alternatives for Line-Haul FreightTask 9: Recommendations for Enhancing Regional Goods Movement SystemTask 10: Environmental Mitigation PlanTask 11: Financing and Implementation PlanTask 12: Final Report
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Background
• SCAG Region
• 2008 Regional Transportation Plan
• Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan
• Air Quality Planning
SCAG Region
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Ventura Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San Bernardino
38,000 sq. miles 6 counties 189 cities 18+ million people, 24 million by 2035
SCAG Region
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SCAG 2008 Regional Transportation Plan
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$531.5 billion(nominal dollars)
2008 RTP: A Multi-Billion, Multi-Modal Plan
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Explosive Growth in Goods MovementExplosive Growth in Goods Movement
14.214.218.318.3
36.036.0
42.542.5
2005 2010 2020 2030
Million TEUs Source: POLA, POLB
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2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner
Additional Rail Track Capacity
Locomotive Engine Upgrades
Grade Separation Projects
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Dedicated Lanes for Clean Technology Trucks
Constrained RTPI-710
Strategic RTPEast-West Corridor and I-15
2008 RTP: Moving Freight Faster and Cleaner
Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan
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Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan
• Master Plan for Goods Movement in Southern California– Guidance for State, regional, and local transportation plans – Inform local land use decision-making
• Core Mandates– Environmental - avoid, reduce, mitigate environmental, community,
and health impacts– Mobility - promote the safe and efficient movement of all modes of
transportation modes and reduce congestion– Economy - ensure the economic well-being of the region and State– Funding – secure the Region’s fair share of public and private funds
for investment in the freight transportation system
• Strategy: Simultaneous Mitigation, Capacity, Investment
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Multi-County Goods Movement Action Plan
• MCGMAP Partners– Caltrans Districts 7, 8, 11, & 12– Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority– Orange County Transportation Authority– Riverside County Transportation Commission– Ventura County Transportation Commission– San Bernardino Association of Governments– San Diego Association of Governments– Southern California Association of Governments
Air Quality Planning
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San Bernardino
South Central
Coast Air Basin
South Coast Air
Basin
Mojave Desert Air Basin
Salton Sea Air Basin
4 Air Basins
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South Central
Coast Air Basin
South Coast Air
Basin
Mojave Desert Air Basin
Salton Sea Air Basin
Ventura County
APCD
Imperial County APCD
Antelope Valley AQMD
South Coast AQMD
Mojave Desert AQMD
5 Air Districts
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San BernardinoSouth Coast Air Basin
Ventura County
Portion of SCCAB
Imperial Valley Portion of SSABFederal Ozone Non-Attainment Areas
Coachella Valley
Portion of SSAB
Western Portion of
Mojave Desert Air Basin
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San BernardinoSouth
Coast Air Basin
Imperial Valley Portion of Salton Sea
Air Basin
Coachella Valley Portion of SSAB
San Bernardino County Portion of Mojave Desert Air
Basin
Searles Valley
Portion of MDAB
Federal PM10 Non-Attainment Areas
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San BernardinoSouth
Coast Air Basin
Federal PM2.5 Non-Attainment AreasImperial Valley Portion of
SSAB
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San BernardinoSouth
Coast Air Basin
Federal CO Maintenance Area
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Ventura
Los Angeles
Orange
Imperial
Riverside
San BernardinoSouth
Coast Air Basin
Federal NO2 Maintenance Area
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• Socio-economic data for emissions inventories
• Transportation model output data: – emissions inventories and
photochemical modeling (SCAQMD)
– on-road emission factors (ARB)
• Transportation strategy portion of AQMP, including TCMs
SCAG SCAG Input to Input to
South South Coast Coast AQMPAQMP
Air Quality Planning
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• Transportation model output and socio-economic data and other relevant data as needed
• SCAQMD performs air quality modeling for the region– ARB uses SCAG transportation
model outputs and SCAQMD modeling to support local air districts’ AQMP development
SCAG Input to
Other Local
AQMPs
SCAG SCAG Input to Input to
Other Other Local Local
AQMPsAQMPs
Air Quality Planning
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Air Quality Challenges
of all Americans exposed to PM2.5 above federal standard live in the SCAG region
52%
of total reductions to achieve So. Coast ozone standard from long-term (“black box”) control measures
43%
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Transportation Conformity
• Regional Emissions Analyses– All on-road emissions in each non-attainment area for
all milestone years– Model validation and data requirements
• Hot Spot Analyses– Interagency consultation for projects with PM impacts– Main concern is diesel emissions from HDT
SCAG Heavy Duty Truck Model
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HDT Model Enhancement Project
• Policy Planning
• HDT Model Improvement Plan
• Schedule
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Policy Planning
• Port Access Improvements• Rail Investments• Clean Technology Truck Lanes• Alternative Technology Goods Movement Systems• Freight Facility Development and Land Use Strategies• Economic Impact Analysis• Operational Strategies (Port and Highway)• Air Quality/Conformity Analyses
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Policy Planning (cont.)
• Better understanding of international versus domestic freight activities
• Account for local distribution and service truck activity accurately at regional scale
• Better understanding of secondary and tertiary port trips and ability to link to warehousing analysis
• Consider land use policy when looking at warehousing projections and resulting truck traffic
• Understand market needs when analyzing alternative goods movement technology systems
• Understand which industries benefit from improvements
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HDT Model Enhancement Plan
• Existing HDT Model
• Proposed HDT Model Enhancements
• Data Collection
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Existing HDT Model - Key Features
• Three Truck Classes – correspond to weight classes used in EMFAC
• External Model – commodity flows converted to truck trips and disaggregated to transp. analysis zones (TAZs)
• Internal Model – trip rates by land use and gravity model
• Special Generator Models – ports and air cargo
• Multi-step, iterative process – similar to SCAG’s Regional Transportation Demand Model for passenger vehicles
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Existing HDT Model - Overview
InputsInputs ModelsModels OutputsOutputs
• Land Use Data• SED Data• Trip Rates• Trip Distance
• Land Use Data• SED Data• Trip Rates• Trip Distance
• Commodity Flow Data
• Land Use Data• SED Data• Payload Factors
• Commodity Flow Data
• Land Use Data• SED Data• Payload Factors
• Quick Trip Generation Outputs
• Trip Interchange Allocations
• Port to SCAG Zone Equivalency
• Quick Trip Generation Outputs
• Trip Interchange Allocations
• Port to SCAG Zone Equivalency
Internal HDT Model• Trip Generation: 8 Land Uses
• P and A Models: Warehouse HHDT
• Trip Distribution: 3 GVW
• Gravity Model: Warehouse HHDT
Internal HDT Model• Trip Generation: 8 Land Uses
• P and A Models: Warehouse HHDT
• Trip Distribution: 3 GVW
• Gravity Model: Warehouse HHDT
External HDT Model• Commodity Flow Allocator to TAZ
• Commodity Flow Tons to Trips Convertor
External HDT Model• Commodity Flow Allocator to TAZ
• Commodity Flow Tons to Trips Convertor
Assignment Model• PCE FactorsAssignment Model• PCE Factors
Daily HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
Daily HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
Internal HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
Internal HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
External HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
External HDT Trip Tables
• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
Port HDT Trip Tables
• HHDT Port Trip Table
Port HDT Trip Tables
• HHDT Port Trip Table
Time-of-Day Factors
Time-of-Day Factors
AM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
AM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
MD HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
MD HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
PM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
PM HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
NT HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
NT HDT Trip Tables• LHDT Trip Table• MHDT Trip Table• HHDT Trip Table
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Process for Assessing Modeling Enhancements (prepared by consultant to inform proposed model enhancement plan)
Truck volumes and speeds on existing goods movement and port access corridors
Relationship between travel times and costs
International cargo volumes/port truck/all truck trips by corridor (including secondary trips)
Commodity/industry usage (tonnage/value/trips) by corridor
Time-of-day truck traffic response
Truck trip generation and distribution
Route choice response to pricing
Truck volumes on new roadway alignments
Logistics system response to changes in highway system performance and land use
Truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by truck class, county, and air basin
Vehicle delay at grade crossings
Port
Acce
ssIm
prov
emen
ts
Truc
k Lan
es
Rail
Inve
stm
ents
Alte
rnat
iveTe
chno
logi
es
Air Q
ualit
y
Econ
omic
Impa
ctFr
eight
Facil
ities
Oper
atio
nal
Stra
tegi
es
Low Medium Medium - High or High - Medium High
Left semi-circle represents risk, and the right semi-circle represents cost
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Proposed Model Enhancements (still under discussion; subject to change)
External Trip Gen./Dist. Model
• Update Exogenous Commodity Flow (CF) Data With TRANSEARCH CF Data • Update CF Conversion to Daily Trip Tables
External Trip Gen./Dist. Model
• Update Exogenous Commodity Flow (CF) Data With TRANSEARCH CF Data • Update CF Conversion to Daily Trip Tables
Internal Trip Generation
• Update Rates
Internal Trip Generation
• Update Rates
Port Trip Generation
• Update Quick Trip
• Obtain Quick Trip for SCAG
Port Trip Generation
• Update Quick Trip
• Obtain Quick Trip for SCAG
Intermodal Trip Gen./Dist.
• Update Rail Trip Tables
Intermodal Trip Gen./Dist.
• Update Rail Trip Tables
Port Secondary Trip Gen./Dist.
• Add Secondary Trips Based on Supply Chain Flows
Port Secondary Trip Gen./Dist.
• Add Secondary Trips Based on Supply Chain Flows
Internal Trip Distribution
• Add LU Interchange Feature
• Est. New Gravity Models
Internal Trip Distribution
• Add LU Interchange Feature
• Est. New Gravity Models
Multiclass Assignment
• Separate Port Trips
• Speed Post-Processor
• Update Time-of-Day Fctrs.
Multiclass Assignment
• Separate Port Trips
• Speed Post-Processor
• Update Time-of-Day Fctrs.
PCE Conversion
• Implement Variable PCE Factors in TransCAD
• Apply New Lookup Values
PCE Conversion
• Implement Variable PCE Factors in TransCAD
• Apply New Lookup Values
Port and Modal Elasticity Model Inputs
Update Module
Update Data
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Data Collection Needs
• Internal Model Data– Trip generation– Trip distribution– Traffic assignment
• Special Generator Model Data– Transload and port-related secondary truck trips – Intermodal terminal truck trips
• External Model Data– Commodity flow data– Other model data inputs (travel cost/value of time and toll
network data)
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Types of Data
• Establishment Surveys
• Existing GPS Data from Vendors
• GPS Data from Device Deployment
• Supply Chain Surveys
• Traffic Counts
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Project Schedule
TasksPhase I D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M ATask 1: Administration / ManagementTask 2: Public OutreachTask 3: Eval & Recommend Improvements HDTTask 4: Truck Trip Data Collection, SurveysTask 5: Warehouse / Industrial Needs Task 6: HDT Model Enhancement and ValidationPhase IITask 7: RTP Goods Movement EvaluationTask 8: Alternative TechnologiesTask 9: Recommendations for Regional SystemTask 10: Environmental Mitigation PlanTask 11: Financing/ Implementation PlanTask 12: Final Report
PHASE I PHASE II2008 2009 2010
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SCAG Model Enhancements - Looking Forward
• Enhancements to Existing Transportation Demand Model– Mode choice, highway/transit networks, pricing
sensitivities, TransCAD, etc.
• New Tools Development– Activity-based model– Land use model– Scenario planning tools (for local land use scenario
planning)
• RTP Modeling Guidelines Update– SB375
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Contacts
• Guoxiong Huang (Modeling)[email protected]
• Annie [email protected]
• Jonathan [email protected]