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VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE

Jacob Ward (Presenter)Dave GohlkeRachael Nealer

Analysis Program Overview

June 8, 2016

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VTO Analysis Program Goals, Objectives, and Strategy

goal

objective

Plan, execute, and communicate technology, societal, economic, and interdisciplinary analyses for VTO, EERE, DOE, and external stakeholders

Robust transportation energy analysis that speaks for itself

strategy Support a strong foundation of data,build relevant analytical models, and execute insightful integrated analyses

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VTO Analysis Program Budget (all numbers in millions of dollars)

- FY16 budget restructure results in $10.8M Analysis budget; FY17 request aligned with historical levels at $4.5M

- Analysis core Program comprises data, modeling, and original analysis

- Analysis also includes Vehicle Systems (VS) co-funding and SMART Mobility foundational Analysis in FY16

- National Laboratory support from ANL, ORNL, LBNL, NREL, and Sandia

($ m

illio

ns)

VTO Analysis Program budget

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VTO Analysis (VAN) Core Program at a Glance

Application/Accounting

Market Penetration

Emissions and Environmental Modeling

Vehicle Modeling and SimulationAutonomie, HTEB

GREET

ADOPT, LVCFlex, MA3T, ParaChoice, LAVE-Trans

VISION, NEAT

Technology and Market DataTEDB, Market Report,xEV data, TREND

IntegratedAnalysisModels and Tools:

And, FY16 “bonus”: SMART Mobility and Vehicle Systems (VS) Co-Funding

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Technology and Market Data

DATA

FY15-16 highlights

future work

• Published…- Transportation Energy Data Book, edition 34- 2015 Market Report

• Tracked…- P/H/EV sales (U.S., international, and global)- Economic considerations, including public and/or private incentives and

other potential correlations• and Reported…

- Historical data on consumer knowledge and perceptions- Extended or new time-series consumer preference data

- Continue updating, disseminating, and expanding (where appropriate) data sources regularly

- Expand P/H/EV market knowledge with third-party data- Extend relevant consumer preference time-series data, and conduct priority deep-dives

supporting analysis efforts

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Vehicle Modeling and Simulation (VTO/VS Co-Fund)

FY15-16 highlights

future work

• Updated Framework and Technology Outlook(s)…- Underlying Autonomie software revised for VTO-specific needs (i.e.

subcomponent models vetted against real-world vehicle and segment data)- VTO technology outlooks updated and formatted for Autonomie input

• Modeled/Simulated Vehicle Meta-data…- Virtual vehicle-level performance and cost(s) estimated for future

technology ranges• and Quality-Assured (enormous improvement in FY15-16).

- Results diagnostics tools used for cross-walks to other models- Significant process and results examination, discussion, revision, and system

redesign for future robustness

- Continue modeling and simulation applied framework process improvement and quality control diagnostics and tools

- Leverage variation on this DOE process for U.S. DRIVE target-setting in FY16- Update DOE meta-data in FY17 (and continue bi-annual process thereafter)

VEHICLE

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Methodology and results (for third-party use)

VEHICLE

2010

Vehicles: Applied Modeling and Simulation Report

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Emissions and Environmental Modeling

ECO

FY15-16 highlights

future work

• Improve GREET…- Collect, analyze water consumption data to develop consumption

factors (including system boundary and regional considerations)- Analyze advanced material vehicle manufacturing data for vehicle

lightweighting lifecycle considerations- Further develop GREET.net user-friendly visual interface platform

• …and Apply GREET:- Study emissions implications of technology improvement(s) and

underlying model adjustments- High visibility model application for i.e. U.S. DRIVE strategic

discussion(s)

- Continue model improvement consistent with expert community state-of-the-art- Continue to apply GREET for strategic and/or topical GHG and particulate emissions

analyses, as needed

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Market Penetration and Consumer Behavior

MARKET

FY15-16 highlights

future work

• Engage Expert Community…- FY15 kickoff with Complex Choice Behaviors and Transportation Energy

Policy (NSF) and International Transportation Energy Modeling (UC-Davis) workshops

- Identify gap analysis and near-/long-term research priorities• Refine and Validate…

- Continue each model’s strategic development (market segmentation, parametric sensitivity analysis, nameplate-based market evolution, etc.)

- Discuss, develop, design and execute model-specific validation(s)• Apply and Analyze…

- Model and compare VTO-standard scenarios- Analyze comparison model, market, and model-market insights

- Continue to evolve and validate models appropriately (according to each model’s bases)- Expand external expert engagement, comparing and refining models accordingly- Incorporate additional model functionality, and examine novel market responses as

modeled (for new insights on models and markets)

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National Transportation Energy Accounting

APP/ACC

FY15-16 highlights

future work

• Maintain and Update…- Standard scenarios, models, and tools to match historical and AEO-

projected future data (which is updated ~annually)- Program-specific scenarios aligned with “VTO Program Success”

• Improve and Expand…- Models and tool sets according to new and evolving Program priorities (e.g.,

off-highway)- Crosswalks between/among models (given integrated analysis approach)

• Integrate…- Analysis models and tools in coherent vehicle-level-to-national analysis

scenarios, examining and estimating VTO technology R&D benefits

- Document and make publically available benefit metrics and methodology- Repeat iterative analytical updates consistent with VTO goals, targets, and milestone

updates and/or needs

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Consumer/Markets: VTO Motivation/Context

Three important contextual caveats:1. DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the only part of DOE responsible

for future energy projections (through the Annual Energy Outlook, AEO)2. Neither VTO nor EERE is in the business of market projection3. VTO-supported market/consumer choice analysis models are tools for

understanding how VTO R&D investment and complementary Federal policies canfurther VTO goals (reducing petroleum consumption, abating GHG emissions, andbolstering energy security)

Primary use: VTO R&D portfolio benefits analysis• VTO R&D lowers

technology cost andimproves performance

• Translating technologyprogress to nationalbenefits requires marketunderstanding

Secondary use: Federal policy analysis• Federal policies

(subsidies, infrastructureinvestment) complementtechnology progress

• Interactions requiremarket understanding

Ad hoc use: scenario analysis• Full transportation

transition scenariosrequire some investment(in technology andpolicy)

• Market understandingprovides insight into suchtransitions

MARKET

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BaSce/GPRA Quantifies VTO Benefits

Source: Stephens et al (2016). http://www.anl.gov/energy-systems/publication/vehicle-technologies-and-fuel-cell-technologies-program-prospective

Applied analysis aggregates subprograms (advanced combustion, electric-drive, energy storage, fuels, and materials programs) to estimate VTO program benefits.

For example, Program benefits in 2050 include:• Petroleum reduction: 2.9–3.7 mbpd (~26–31 billion barrels cumulatively)• GHG emissions abatement: ~600–750M tons CO2eq/year (~14–15 billion tons

cumulatively)

APP/ACC

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Focus Area Lead Future New Technologies/Models/KnowledgeMobility

Decision Science LBNL • New knowledge and applications of decision science to collect andanalyze real-world data on transportation decision making

Connectivity & Automation ANL • An increased understanding of the potential impact of connected

and automated vehicles (and relationship to vehicle technologies)

Multi-Modal ORNL • Dynamic passenger/freight modal energy-intensity modelingconsidering market preferences and energy implications

Urban Science NREL • Integrated city-scale models that explicitly consider energy impactsby collecting real-world data with local collaboration

Vehicles and Infrastructure INL • Integrated vehicle-fuel models to explore consumer and provider

value propositions

SMART Mobility Foundational Analysis

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SMART Mobility: Early Accomplishments

2050 BaselineEnergy Consumption

Potential Increase in Energy Consumption

Potential Decrease in Energy Consumption

+200%

-90%

Future Mobility will have a HUGE energy impact…

Early applied analysis and modeling/simulation research connects possible energy outcomes with potential VMT,

connectivity/automation, shared mobility, travel behavior, and vehicle technology effects.

…how do westart to make sense of it?

Possible connected and automated vehicle energy effects:

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VTO Analysis Program and Integration, in Summary

DATA

VEHI

CLE

ECO

MAR

KET

APP/

ACCT

TEDB

xEV sales

TREND database

Autonomie

HTEB

GREET

MA3T

ADOPT

LVC Flex

LAVE-Trans

ParaChoice

TRUCK

VISION

NEAT

DATA

VEHI

CLE

ECO

MAR

KET

APP/

ACCT

expert input

Autonomie

HTEB

GREET

MA3T (et al)

TRUCK

VISION

- The VTO analysis portfolio (left) satisfies VTO’s priority analysis needs and includes some redundancies, where logical

- Some projects (e.g., BaSce/GPRA, below) span all categories for a truly integrated analysis

Analysis Type:

Models:

BaSce/GPRAintegrated analysis

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ANLData, Modeling, Applied

Analysis, SMART

ORNLData, Modeling,

SMART

NRELData, Modeling,

SMART

Sandia Modeling

U.S. DOE ProjectsCo-Funders

U.S. EPA

U.S. DOT

CA State Agencies

LBNLModeling, SMART

Ford, Toyota, AGA, DOT, ANL, ORNL, NREL, Energetics ORNL, ANL, SNL, UC-Davis,

Navigant, Opinion Research Corporation (ORC), GM, Ford, Fiat-Chrysler, EIA,

ORNL, ANL, SNL, SRA International, TA

Engineering

Energetics, SRA, Ford, U-Tennessee, UC-Davis, Iowa

State, Lamar, U-Florida, DOE, ANL, NREL, EIA,

Tsinghua University, IIASA

ORNL, NREL, SNL, TA Engineering, Energetics, Navigant, DLR, Fraunhofer, U-Wisconsin-Madison, Sasol Synfuels, Jacobs, EPA, CARB,

FRA, FAA, DOD-DLA-Energy, Kelley Blue Book, NADA, Tsinghua University, Hybridcars.com, European Automotive Industry Newsletter

INLSMART

Other Partnerships

U.S. DRIVE

BP, Chevron, DTE, EPRI, ExxonMobil, Phillips66, SCE,

Shell, Tesla, USCAR (FCA, Ford, GM)

Collaboration

UC-Berkeley, EPA, Stanford, Center for Sustainable

Energy, ETH Zurich

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VTO Analysis (VAN) Presentations

Time Project ID VANCategory

PrincipalInvestigator Project Title

2:15 VAN000/VAN999 (Overview) Jacob Ward, DOE VTO Analysis Portfolio Overview

2:45 VAN016 DATA Stacy Davis, ORNL Transportation Data Program

3:15 VAN017 MODELING Michael Wang, ANL Vehicle Technologies Analysis Modeling Program

3:45 Break

4:15 VAN018 APP/ACT Tom Stephens, ANL VTO Baseline and Scenario (BaSce) Activities

4:45 VAN023 VEHICLE Aymeric Rousseau, ANL

Assessing Energy and Cost Impact of Advanced Technologies through Model-Based Design

Wednesday, June 8, Roosevelt 3

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VTO Analysis (VAN) Posters

Project ID

VAN Category

PrincipalInvestigator Project Title

VAN019 MARKET Rebecca Levinson, SNL ParaChoice Model

VAN020 APP/ACCT Tom Stephens, ANL Applied Analysis of Connected and Automated Vehicles

VAN021 MARKET Zhenhong Lin, ORNL Transportation Energy Evolution Modeling (TEEM) Program

VAN022 APP/ACCT Aymeric Rousseau, ANL Applied Modeling and Simulation of Connected and Automated Vehicles

Wednesday, June 8, 12:30p–1:45p

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Jacob WardVehicle Technologies Officevehicles.energy.gov

Annual Merit ReviewJune 6-10, 2016