Overview of Wisconsin Economic

Indicators

Committee on Jobs, Economy and Mining

March 26, 2013

In this presentation Information is supplied by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, the

Wisconsin Department of Revenue, the U. S. Bureau of the Census, and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Previous Estimate: Wisconsin Job Gains Three Measures, Three Different Results

Source: BLS.GOV

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan 11 Mar 11May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12

Year to Year Employment Change, In Thousands

Household

Establishment

QCEW

January 3, 2013

Before the Revisions, CES Series

Reported Declining Jobs in WI

2690

2700

2710

2720

2730

2740

2750

2760

From the BLS Report

Revisions in State-Establishment Based Estimates Effective January 2013 • For the present benchmark year, 2012, CES payroll employment estimates

are replaced by census derived employment counts for all months from April 2011 to September 2012. This stands in contrast to the previous benchmark year, 2011, in which CES payroll employment estimates were replaced only through to the second quarter, June 2011.

• As a result of the short replacement period in the previous benchmark year, the March 2012 benchmark revisions reflect revisions to cumulatively more sample-based estimates than is typical for previous benchmark years. The March 2012 benchmark revisions affect nine months of sample-based CES payroll employment estimates, June 2011 to March 2012, as opposed to six months in previous years. In part due to the compounding from month to month of sample and non-sampling error, the March 2012 benchmark revisions are generally greater than in previous benchmark years.

• The effect of compounding sample and non-sample error also applies to the December 2012 benchmark revisions, which are also generally greater than in previous years.

BLS Really Means

Oops. We goofed.

Third quarter is better for benchmarking.

With the Revisions, CES Estimates

Report Significant Job Increases

2660

2680

2700

2720

2740

2760

2780

2800

2820

1/1

/20

10

3/1

/20

10

5/1

/20

10

7/1

/20

10

9/1

/20

10

11

/1/2

01

0

1/1

/20

11

3/1

/20

11

5/1

/20

11

7/1

/20

11

9/1

/20

11

11

/1/2

01

1

1/1

/20

12

3/1

/20

12

5/1

/20

12

7/1

/20

12

9/1

/20

12

11

/1/2

01

2

After

Before

BLS Had Significantly Underestimated

Wisconsin Job Growth

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mar2007

Mar2008

Mar2009

Mar2010

Mar2011

Mar2012

Dec2012

Percent Change in Job Estimates by Date of Revision

Avg State

Wisconsin

Wisconsin's Revision Among the

Nation's Largest

Percent Difference In CES EstimatesDecember 2012

Over 2% (5)

1% to 2% (14)

0.1% to 1.0% (24)

No Change (1)

Less than 0% (7)

Previous Estimates Underestimated WI

by as Much as 70,000 Jobs

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 Difference between Previous and Revised CES Estimates

WI Revision Greater than MN

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs

Difference between Prior and Revised Estimates

Wisconsin

Minnesota

WI Revision Higher than Iowa’s

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs

Wisconsin

Iowa

WI Revision Higher than Illinois’s

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs

Wisconsin

Illinois

WI Revision Higher than Michigan’s

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Tho

usa

nd

s o

f Jo

bs

Wisconsin

Michigan

BLS CES Estimates

Consistently Underestimates WI Jobs

Number of Positive Revisions

In Last Seven CES Revisions

1 (5)

2 (6)

3 (15)

4 (16)

5 (6)

6 (2)

7 (1)

Revisions Largest in Strongly Seasonal

Industries

-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Total

Private

Construction

Leisure & Hospitality

Finance

Prof & Business Svc

Other

Manufacturing

Government

Edu & Health

Trade, Trans, Util

Information

Percent Difference between Previous and Revised Estimates

2011

2012

Current Vs. Original Estimate

January 3, 2013

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan 11 Mar 11May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12

Year to Year Employment Change, In Thousands

Current/Revised Estimate Original Estimate

Revised Estimate: Wisconsin Job Gains CES and QCEW Consistent

Source: BLS.GOV

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan 11 Mar 11May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13

Year to Year Employment Change, In Thousands

Household Establishment QCEW

January 3, 2013

Wisconsin Unemployment

Significantly Below US Average

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0 Percent of Labor Force Unemployed

US

WI

January 3, 2013

Wisconsin Among States with a Significantly

Lower Unemployment Rate

State Unemployment RatesJanuary 2013

Below US Avg (24)

Near US Avg (18)

Above US Avg (9)

20

Manufacturing Up in February Milwaukee PMI Rises to 56.5

Wisconsin Exports Set a Record in 2012

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

Wisconsin Exports in Millions of Dollars, Twelve Month Total

Wisconsin Housing Permits Continue Their Rise

22

Withholding Collections Moving Higher

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2009M03 2009M08 2010M01 2010M06 2010M11 2011M04 2011M09 2012M02 2012M07 2012M12

Ye

ar/

Ye

ar

Ch

an

ge

Withholding Collections 3-Month Moving Average

Initial UI Claims Running Below

Pre-Recession Levels

14,719 14,443

24,730

20,857

16,944

13,763

12,823

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Through Week 11

Wisconsin Per Capita Income Growth

in 2011 in the Top Quarter

2011 Per Capita Personal IncomeGrowth Over Prior Year

4.70% to 6.66% (13)

4.20% to 4.69% (13)

3.80% to 4.19% (12)

Under 3.80% (12)