1

Overview on framework and issues

related to prioritising peatland

restoration and conservation

activities on a UK scale

Klaus Glenk

VNN workshop on assessing & valuing peatland ecosystem services

January 2012, Leeds

2

Outline

Aims and overview

Scenario selection

Choice of time-frame

Cost-effectiveness of measures

Wider ecosystem service benefits

Uncertainty

3

General aim framing WP2

To generate a better understanding of the economics

of peatland ecosystem services in order to inform

decision-making on peatland restoration and

conservation activities in the UK

Focus on working towards the development of a

framework for prioritising peatland

restoration/conservation activities on a UK scale

What is needed? Challenges?

4

Related VNN challenges

Relates particularly to VNN challenges 1 and 3

VNN challenge 1: How can the complexity of socio-ecological systems

be incorporated into valuations of biodiversity, ecosystem services and

natural resource use?

Incorporating spatial variability in the natural environment within analyses

Risk and uncertainty

VNN challenge 3: How can issues of scale be incorporated within

valuations of biodiversity, ecosystem services and natural resource use?

How do variations in scale affect natural processes, marginal values, etc?

What are the barriers to cross-scale analysis and how can they be

overcome?

Are there scale-dependent transitions in the interactions between ecological

environmental and socio-economic data in the valuation process?

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Overview

OPPORTUNITY COST OF RESTORATION

BIODIVERSITY

CULTURAL SERVICES: RECREATION AND

CULTURAL HERITAGE

WATER-RELATED SERVICES: WATER

QUALITY, QUANTITY AND FLOOD REGULATION

CLIMATE REGULATION: NET

GHG EMISSION CHANGES

OTHER SERVICES BENEFITS

COSTS

NET BENEFITS

Valuing impacts Areas with

highest benefit-cost ratio should

then be prioritised

RESTORATION SCENARIO

COMPARED WITH BASELINE UPFRONT AND

RECURRING COSTS OF IMPLEMENTATION

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Spatially explicit values

Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of

peatland in the UK

Information needs:

How will a peatland area degrade (or not) under various

‘business-as-usual’ and ‘restoration’ scenarios?

What is the opportunity cost of restoration/conservation

activities (and their upfront and recurring costs)?

How much does a given level of restoration/conservation

of an area of peatland contribute to the wider ecosystem

service benefits due to peatland restoration and

conservation?

Distinction between lowland and upland peatlands?

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Evaluating the impacts of restoration and

conservation over time

Net

emissions

(CO2 eq)

Time

The area between the two

curves gives the measure of

effectiveness over a certain

time period

Without

restoration/conservation

With

restoration/conservation

Changes in carbon stocks should include both above-ground and below-ground biomass

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Restoration scenario

Different degrees of restoration possible?

Varying ‘effectiveness’ of restoration activities (i.e.

different time needed for ‘full’ restoration)?

Ecosystem service delivery of particular area

independent of condition of adjacent area:

Net GHG emissions

Provisioning services

(Recreation)

Ecosystem service delivery of particular area

depends on condition of adjacent area:

Water-related services

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Restoration scenario

Net GHG emissions

-20%

-12%

-8%

baseline

+

=

plus marginal benefits of

reducing net GHG

emissions are more or

less constant

spatial optimisation

straightforward

10

Restoration scenario

Probability of high flows

relative to baseline

-12%

-4%

-3%

baseline

+

≠

plus marginal benefits of

flood risk reduction may

diminish with increasing

risk reduction

spatial optimisation

complicated

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Restoration scenario

A

B

B

A

Probability of high flows

relative to baseline

-12%

-4%

-3%

baseline

+

≠

contribution of A and B to

flood risk reduction??

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Restoration scenario

A

B

Probability of high flows

relative to baseline

-12%

-8%

-4%

baseline

+

=

Is it possible to identify

areas of peatland that are

independent with respect

to service delivery (e.g.

different sub-catchments

or ‘hydrological response

units’)?

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Restoration scenario: biodiversity

• There is a consensus that biodiversity (conservation) is

very valuable

• Placing monetary values on biodiversity, especially the non-

use value aspects, is difficult; and it is questionable if

results of such an undertaking can be treated with much

confidence

• In a framework for prioritising peatland restoration and

conservation, biodiversity could enter via a ‘no regret’

approach conditioning the selection of appropriate

restoration and conservation measures

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Restoration scenario: biodiversity

• A specific area is not considered suitable for restoration or

conservation if peatland restoration or conservation

compromised biodiversity conservation objectives

• But: it often seems to be difficult to agree on clear

objectives for biodiversity conservation

• e.g., near natural state may not support greatest ‘diversity’

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Evaluating the impacts of restoration and

conservation over time

Net

emissions

(CO2 eq)

Time

Without

restoration/conservation

With

restoration/conservation

Changes in carbon stocks should include both above-ground and below-ground biomass

16

Choice of timeframe

Impacts may not be linear over time

What would be an appropriate timeframe for analysis?

20 – 30 – 50 years?

How would the choice of a timeframe influence results?

One thing to think about here is the issue of protecting existing

stocks against restoring degraded stock: do longer time periods

favour one or the other?

Effects of discounting (generally: choice of discount rate)?

How long does it take for a peatland to be (fully) restored (no

additional effects)?

How does uncertainty/variability in model predictions

change when the period of time increases?

17

Spatially explicit values

Need to assign costs and benefits to specific areas of

peatland in the UK

Information needs:

How will a peatland area degrade (or not) under various

‘business-as-usual’ and ‘restoration’ scenarios?

What is the opportunity cost of restoration/conservation

activities (and their upfront and recurring costs)?

How much does a given level of restoration/conservation

of an area of peatland contribute to the ecosystem

service benefits due to peatland restoration and

conservation?

Distinction between lowland and upland peatlands?

18

Uncertainty related to scenarios

How certain are predictions about future states of

peatlands?

what is the range of model outcomes?

can this range be described probabilistically, i.e. in

terms of risk?

Which are key variables influencing the sensitivity of

predictions of future states of peatlands?

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Uncertainty related to activities

What is the level of variation (based on current

knowledge/models) regarding the impact of

restoration activities on net GHG emissions?

What is the level of uncertainty associated with the

effectiveness of restoration/conservation activities

regarding flood and water (quality) regulation?

What drives variation in both?

Can variation be described in probabilistic terms?

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Outcome-related risk

Generally individuals tend to prefer sure options over

uncertain ones when pay-offs are held constant (they

tend to be risk-averse)

In the presence of ‘risky choices’ (risk regarding

outcomes of restoration/conservation), individuals

may therefore demand a risk premium (minimum

WTA for risk)

This is basically the amount by which the value of an

environmental good should be reduced given that

outcomes are risky

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Incorporating risk in valuation

In (environmental) CBA, outcomes tend to be treated

as certain and individuals as risk neutral

Increasing variance (risk) regarding the effectiveness

of restoration or conservation activities could be

‘penalised’ ex-post in the decision-making process

Information on outcome-related risk could be

incorporated directly into primary valuation studies

e.g., respondents to a stated preference question could

be informed about the likely range of outcomes they are

asked to value

Perform sensitivity analysis

22

Back to the general aim…

To generate a better understanding of the economics

of peatland ecosystem services in order to inform

decision-making on peatland restoration and

conservation activities in the UK

Focus on working towards the development of a

framework for prioritising peatland

restoration/conservation activities on a UK scale

What is needed? Challenges?

23

Summary

Clearly a very demanding task – with lots of potential to

learn on the way

Will the outcomes of such research justify the amount of

effort that is needed to generate decent results?

Potential for simplification e.g. regarding the selection of

restoration/conservation scenarios by imposing certain rules

and constraints

Is the ‘science’ available to support the necessary

valuation?

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