1

J.B. CollierOperations Officer

Africa Natural Resources and Water Management Group

Annual International UN Water ConferenceZaragoza, Spain

January 8-10, 2013

Lessons Learned from Water Cooperation in Transboundary Basins:

A World Bank Perspective

2

Countries have ambitious development goals

Ambitious goals to achieve growth, poverty alleviation, sustainable development.

Food, energy, water, security and climate resilience plans.

“Laos wants to pull itself out of least-developed country status by 2020”

“By maintaining at least an 11 percent annual average economic growth and by addressing emerging development bottlenecks, meet the MDG target.” (Ethiopia)

3

Cooperation can help meet those goals

Economies of scale

Access to markets

Postpone investments

Jointly face a common threat

Optimize regionally rather than nationally

Balance each other’s needs

4

The Puzzle: If cooperation brings so many benefits, why isn’t there

more of it ?

276 River Basins in the world.

> 60% of have no treaty provisions covering them.

Few River basin agreements.

Mostly bilateral.

Security

Economic Development

Needs

Rights

INTERNAL DRIVERS

EXTERNAL DRIVERS

Global Dialogue

Regional Geopolitics

Climate Risks

COUNTRY CONSIDERATION

SBenefits and Costs (Economic)

Perceived Risks (Political)

(and few Opportunities)

(Political)

What’s holding the countries back? Perceived Risks

5

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 1000 10000 100000

Lif

e

Exp

ecta

ncy

(ye

ars)

GNI per capita (US$/yr)

There is a need to catch up quickly in a global context …

2009 Data from The World Bank

6

Many Development Challenges…

Gross Cell Productin 2005

(1995 US$, billions)

Source: The World Bank AFR Water Resources in a Changing Climate, 2010 based on data from GECON GDP Dataset, Yale University 2010

Areas that contribute to Africa’s GDPGrowing Cities

Population in 2000

2010

2025

Kinshasa

Cairo

LagosKhartoum

Dar-es-Salaam

Cape Town

Dakar8.7 million

15 million

5.6 million

Data Source: UN Agglomerations Population Data

Growing Population

Growing Cities

Growing Economies

7

Information

New Visualizations building on better Global Datasets

Innovative Hardware(e.g. Tablets)

Interactive Documents

Online Portals 8

Precipitation (rain & snow)

Reservoir Levels

Flow, Sediment, Floods, GW, …

Shared Regional Real-time Hydromet Systems

“Bottom-up” Systems

Data Transmission(e.g. Satellite, Fixed-line/ Cellphone, Radio Telemetry)

Data Management (Visualization, Forecasts, Storage, Archival,

Dissemination & Use)

Internet/

Intranet

“Top-down” Systems

ET, Soil Moisture, Biomass…

9

Examples of Bank Work on International

Waters

10

Ganges Strategic Basin AssessmentComplex System Scenario Analysis

RAJASTHAN

MADHYA PRADESH

CHHATTISGARH

JHARKHAND

WEST BENGAL

BIHAR

UTTAR PRADESH

BANGLADESH

NEPAL

UTTARKHAND

HIM

AC

HA

L

PR

AD

ES

H

IRR101_8

Kota Dam

DAM101_5

Gandhisagar Dam

DAM101_3

Ranapratapsagar

DAM101_4

Chambal right bank

IRR101_6

Chambal River

Chambal left bank

IRR101_5

Dhaolpur municipal area

WS101_3

Rangwan Dam

DAM101_11

Daudhan Dam

DAM101_10

Ken River

Tons River

Karmanasa River

Naugarh Dam

DAM104_1

Musakhand Dam

DAM104_2

Adhuara Municipal area

WS104_1IRR102_2

Ganges River

Son Right Bank

IRR106_2

Son left

IRR106_1

No

rth

Kae

l Riv

er

Mayurakshi RiverMassanjore Dam

DAM111_1Maithan

DAM111_2

Panchet Resevoir

DAM111_3

Damodar River

Kangshabati

DAM111_4

Haldia River

Farakka

Ganges River

Ganges Barrage

(p lanned)

Padma River

Ban

gh

irat

hi /

Ho

og

ly

Lo

wer

Meg

hn

a R

iver

Up

per

Meg

hn

a R

iver

Jam

un

a R

iver

Mo

han

and

a R

iver

(Ban

gla

des

h)

Mo

han

and

a R

iver

(In

dia

)

Mec

hi

Riv

er

Gh

agar

a R

iver

Ban

gan

ga

Riv

er

Rap

ti R

iver

Gan

dh

ak R

iver

Bag

mat

i R

iver

Ko

si R

iver

Kam

ala

Riv

er

Tam

ur

DA

M2

09

_6

Kal

igan

dh

aki i

i

DA

M2

07

_2

Kal

igan

gh

aki I

DA

M2

07

_1

Set

i

DA

M2

07

_4

Mar

syan

di

DA

M2

07

_5

Bu

rhi G

ang

aki

DA

M2

07

_6

Tri

suli

Res

erv

oir

DA

M2

07

_7

Su

nk

osi

II

DA

M2

09

_2

S

apta

ko

si R

iver

Up

per

Aru

n

DA

M2

09

_3

Aru

n I

II

DA

M2

09

_4

Lo

wer

Aru

n

DA

M2

09

_5

Kosi Hhogh Dam

DAM209_7

Kosi western canal

IRR109_3Kosi Eastern canal

IRR109_4

Kamala Dam

DAM209_1

Sapta Ganghaki Dam

DAM207_8

Kulekhani

DAM208_1

Eastern Gandhak

IRR107_3

Western Gandhak

IRR107_2

Rapti B

IRR105_6

Andhi Khola Dam

DAM207_3

Rapti Dam

DAM205_9

Surya B

IRR105_4

Chisapani (kamali) Dam

DAM205_8

Girija B

Lucknow City Supply

WS103_1

Sarda Sahayak

IRR105_2

Gomti river

Banbhasa Headworks

DAM205_3

Purnagiri dam

DAM205_2

Pancheswar dam

DAM205_1

Mah

akal

i (S

arad

a)

Riv

er

Kar

nal

i (G

hag

ra)

riv

er

Bab

ai (

Su

rya)

riv

er

Ko tti Behl Reservoir

DAM100_6East Ganga Canal

IRR100_2

Madhya East Ganga

IRR100_4

Kanpur city Supply

WS100_1

Lower Ganga Canal

IRR100_5

Upper Ganga Canal

IRR100_1

Madhya West Ganga

IRR100_3

Vyasi Dam

DAM101_2

Yamuna East Canal

IRR101_2

Yamuna River

Lakhwar Dam

DAM101_1

Yamuna West Canal

IRR101_1

Hinden R.Agra Canal

IRR101_3

Agra City Supply

WS101_2

River

Diversion

Dam (Planned)

Dam (Existing)

Irrigation

International Boundary

State Boundary

INF101_1

INF101_2

INF101_3

INF101_4

INF101_5

INF101_6

INF101_7

INF101_8

INF101_9

INF101_10

INF101_11

INF101_12

INF101_13

INF101_14

INF101_15

INF101_16

INF101_17

INF101_18

INF100_1

INF100_2

INF100_3

INF100_4

INF100_5

INF100_6

INF100_8

INF100_9

INF100_10 INF100_11INF100_12

INF100_13

INF100_14

INF100_15 INF100_16

INF100_17

INF102_1

INF102_2

INF103_1

INF104_1

INF205_1

INF205_2

INF205_3

INF205_4

INF205_5

INF205_6

INF205_7

INF205_8

INF105_9

INF105_10

INF105_11

INF106_1INF106_2

INF106_3

INF106_4

INF207_1

INF207_2

INF207_3

INF207_4

INF207_5

INF207_6INF208_1

INF208_2

INF209_1

INF209_2

INF209_3

INF209_4

INF209_5

INF209_6

INF210_1

INF110_2

INF111_1

INF111_2

INF111_4

INF312_1

INF313_1

INF314_1

IT01_1

IT01_2

IT01_3

IT01_4

IT01_6

IT01_5

IT01_7

IT01_9

IT01_10

IT01_11

IT01_12

IT00_1

IT00_2

IT00_3

IT00_4

IT00_5

IT00_6

IT00_7

IT00_8

IT00_9 IT00_10 IT00_11 IT00_12 IT00_13 IT00_14 IT00_15

IT02_1

IT02_2

IT03_1IT05_3

IT04_1

IT05_1

IT05_8

IT07_1

IT09_1

IT09_3

IT06_1

IT06_2

IT10_1

IT11_1

IT11_3

IT11_4

IT11_2

IT05_2

Rapti Nepal

IRR205_5

IRR209_2

Delhi Water Supply

WS101_1

Parwan Irrigation

IRR101_4

Pardkh

IRR101_9

IT01_8

INF100_7

IRR205_1IRR205_3

IT05_4 IT05_5

IT05_6

IT05_7

IRR207_1

IT08_1

IT09_2

IRR209_1

IT06_3

IRR106_3

INF111_3

END1

END2

IT00_16

IT00_17IT00_18

END3

IT05_9

IT07_2

Keolari

IRR101_7

IT01_13

IT01_14

IRR101_10

IRR101_11IT01_15

IRR101_12IT01_16

FL1

FL2

FL3FL4

FL5

FL6

FL7

FL8

IT00_19

IRR300_6

Pancheshwar Dam(proposed)

Chisapani (Karnali) Dam(proposed)

Kosi High Dam(proposed)

Development Scenarios

Climate Scenarios

Implications: Flooding

Implications: Hydropower

Implications: Irrigation

11

Existing Water Supply (dom, comm, ind) demand

Proposed DWS

Existing Irrigation scheme

Proposed new or expansion of existing irrigation scheme

Environmental flow requirement (EFR)

Existing Reservoir

Proposed new reservoir

Existing Reservoir to be rehabilitated

Aquifer Node

Connection Node

Start Node

S6 S7

Logar R.C4

C3

C2

C1R4: TangiWardak

R7: Gat

R3: Chak-e-WardakR2: Kajab

D4D2

S5

Surkhab R.Charkh R.

R5: Karwan R6: Surkhab

C5

S1

C12D7

A2

S3

R12: Haijan

A4

C10

S3a

A4aC12a

D3

D3a

A1

D5

C6

D11

D30

D14Kabul City C9

R1

R1a

R13: Amir Ghazi

S12

C7

R14: MaripurC8

Butkhak R.

S10

C16

R10: Panjshir I(Gulbahar)

R9: Barak

D23

S10AS9 Salang R.

Panjshir R.C21

S8

Garband R.

R8: Totumdara

D20

C20

C19

R11: Bagdara

A3 C24

S11

Barikow R.

C22

C23

Panjshir R.

Kabul R.

Kabul River Basin System Schematic

U. Kabul/ Maidan R.

Paghman R.

Qargha R.

C4a

D4a(Einak Mine)

C32

R15: Naghlu

R16A: Sarubi 1

R16B: Sarubi 2

R17: Laghman A

R18: Darunta

R19: Konar A

R20: Konar B "Site 4"

D40

R21: Kama

D42

C34

D43

C36

S16

S13

S15

D38D41

D37

C30

E1

Pul-i-Qarghai Hyd. Unit

C31

C332

S14

D39

Khas Konar on Konar R.

Pul-i-Gawerdesh (Lanay River)

S17 C37

Kabul River tributaries south of the SurkhandNo Data on FlowD43 is about 36000ha

C35

Surkhrud River

Kabul River at Dakah

No Data for Gauge at SaltanpurD42 is about 22000ha

S13A

13 Storage & Hydro Projects6 Conveyance Projects5 Groundwater Projects14 Irrigation Projects

International Basins in National Context

Afghanistan - Strategic Options Scoping in the Kabul River Basin

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Liv

e S

tora

ge

(MC

M)

Kaj

ab

Tan

gi

War

dag

Gat

Hai

jan

To

tum

dar

a

Bar

ak

Pan

jsh

ir

Bag

hd

ara

Lan

gh

man

Ko

nar

A

To

tal

Sto

rag

eD

evel

op

ed

Figure 6-6 Base Case Storage Options under Different Hydrologic Risk Options

Mean Annual Flow

Moderate Drought (1 in 5 yrs)

More Serious Drought (1 in 10 yrs)

Severe Drought Year

Prioritizing Investments in Kabul

River Basin 12

Uganda

Kenya

Ethiopia

Eritrea

Sudan

Egypt

DR Congo

Rwanda

BurundiTanzania

South Sudan

Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

Eastern Nile

Nile Basin

220 /460MW

C2C3C1

1780 MW R4R7R5

1700 ME 1600 MW R6R7R8R9C10C10C12C12C12C13R13R14R15

Eastern Nile Basin System Schematic

R9Sennar

R12

Kha

shm

-el

-Gir

ba

R15 Aswan

R4

Kar

ado

bi

R8Roseires

R10Jabel Auliya

C10

C13 C12

R5

Ma

bil

R6

Me

nd

aia

R7

Bor

der

R3Lake Tana

S10

Wh

ite

Nil

e

Blue Nile (Abbay)

Baro

Up

per A

tbara

SetitAtbara

C1 C6

C5

C2

C16D21: New Valley

D22 D23

E1

E2

Mediterranean Sea

Sobat

Pib

or

S6

R2

Bar

o

Baro Birbir

C4

S2

Akobo

Gilo

S11

C9

Beles

R1Baro

S5

R11Rumela

S14

D14: Om Hagar

D13: Humera

C11 S15

D15: U. AtbaraD16: New Haifa

D11: Gezira

D10: Dinder

D9

D8

D7D6

D4

D12

D2

D1

R13 Merowe

R14 Dal

D17

D18

D19

D20

C7

C8 S9Doleib/Adar

C14 S16El Hawad

S12Dinder

S13Rahad

C3

S7Alw

ero

C15

S3

S4

D3

D5

Riv

er N

ile

Bar

o

R16L. Victoria

S1

D24

R17L. Kayoga

R18L. Albert

S17

D25

D26

C18

D27

C17

S8

Return to Interface

Strengthening regional institutions,

analysis, and investments

13

Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project

Demonstration of Value of Regional Cooperation for flood forecasting and warning improvement in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.

Soils

Canals

Wetlands

•••

•••

Rivers

14

Amu Darya Basin

Amu Darya Basin

Upper Amu Darya Basin

UzbekistanIrrigated Areas

Facilitating riparian cooperation dialogue and investments in the Aral Sea Basin.

15

16

By:Ashok SubramanianBridget BrownAaron Wolf

REACHING ACROSS THE WATERSFacing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters

17

Introduction: What, How

Framework for Analysis

Case Studies

Understanding Risks

Understanding Risk Reduction

Pointers for Partners

Reflections

Reaching Across the Waters: Outline

18

Cooperation – Dialogue or action re: shared waters between countries.

International Waters – River shared by countries (may be border; may cross borders.

Benefits – Economic benefits. Risks – Perceived, may not be real. Risk Reduction – Actionable measures to

reduce perceived risks. Opportunity – Political; usually unpredictable.

Definitions

Framework for AnalysisBenefits, Risks, and Opportunities

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

Countries may pursue Unilateral development given

high risks and high costs

Countries most likelyto make a deal

Countries likely to consider a deal; risk reduction and

opportunity enhancementwould improve likelihood

Countries likely to consider a deal; benefit expansion would improve likelihood

19

20

E. Nile Basin, 1998-2004: Working together on the E. Nile Program, after historic conflicts

Ganges Basin, 1996-2000: Bilateral treaty between India-Bangladesh, after long negotiations

Niger Basin, 2000-2006: Revitalization of the Niger Basin Authority, after 4 decades of fragile existence

Syr Darya Basin, 1996-2000: F’wk agreement between 3 countries on energy, but did not sustain

Zambezi Basin, 2000-04: ZAMCOM is not signed by all, despite enormous efforts

The Cooperation Experience: River Basins

Ganges River Basin, 1996-2000

21

Eastern Nile Basin, 1998-2004

22

Niger River Basin, 2000-2006

23

Syr Darya, 1996-2002

24

Zambezi River Basin, 2000-2004

25

26

R I S K R E D U C T I O N

O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

UNDERSTANDING RISKS

Risks: See next slide

27

Capacity and Knowledge - country’s confidence in itself to negotiate an agreement, and also having enough knowledge (for example, of the basin) to do so.

Accountability and Voice - country’s distrust in co-riparians, agencies or third parties as well as its desire to be heard and included in the cooperation process.

Sovereignty and Autonomy - country’s desire to have control over resources and infrastructure, and also to make decisions independently.

Equity and Access - country’s concern for fairness in the agreement, whether it is in specified flows or project costs, as well as its sense of entitlement to develop/use its fair share of the river.

Stability and Support - country’s concern that an agreement will not be honored by its own citizens or be widely supported politically.

Risks: 5 Types

28

CORE RISKS◦ Deep. Recur. Need Periodic Attention.

OPERATIONAL RISKS◦ Many interventions may be needed.

Core & Operational Risks

SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY

EQUITY ACCESS

CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE

ACCOUNTABILITY & VOICE

STABILITY & SUPPORT

Weak knowledge

Lack of Rules of

Engagement or

for decision making

Few forums for

debate and interaction

29

R I S K R E D U C T I O N

O P P O R T U N I T Y E N H A N C E M E N T

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

UNDERSTANDING RISK REDUCTION

Risk Reduction – See next Slide

30

Knowledge & Skills

Institutions

Agreement

Program

Legitimacy

Financing

Facilitation

SEVEN RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIESFa

cts

vs.

per

cept

ions

Dec

isio

n

mak

ing

Form

al?

Flexib

le?

TA?

Inve

sts?

Sequence of benefits

Forums for

debate

Supportin

g dialogue

31

CAPACITYKNOWLEDGE

ACCOUNTABILITY VOICE

SOVEREIGNTY AUTONOMY

EQUITY ACCESS

STABILITY SUPPORT

Knowledge & Skills

Institutions

Agreement

Program

Legitimacy

Financing

Facilitation or Guarantee

LINKINGRISKS&RISK REDUCTIONSTRATEGIES

No One Size Fits All Solutions

Conduct Quick

Assessment

Conduct Detailed

Assessment

Select Risk Reduction Measures

Expert Validation

Coordinate Support

Further Risk Reduction

Development Goals &

Consideration of Cooperation

Agreement(Risks & Opportunities)

No Agreement(Risks &

Opportunities)

Select Scale of

Engagement

PART

NERS

COUNTRIE

S

Engage in Risk

Reduction

ConductReassessment

Ongoing – Consideration of Benefits, Opportunities,

Risks and Internal Dialogue

Risk Identification and Action

32

33

Many Risk Reduction Strategies needed - Pooled approach

◦ Harmonization and Alignment.◦ Comparative strengths (GEF, UN, IFI, Bilaterals)◦ Financing and TA

Monitoring progress/outputs critical

Communication about intermediate steps

Incentives for Teams

Pointers for Partners

34

In it for the long haul…A long distance run..not a sprint

35

Core & Operational Risks

Mix of risk reduction strategies needed.

Appropriate rather than ideal solutions.

Different paths to cooperation, so different strokes for different risks/contexts.

Political Opportunity may override some risks.

Political Opportunity is unpredictable, depends on “beyond the water” issues (e.g., change of regime).

Political Opportunity opens doors – but Risk Reduction still important.

Reflections

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

Different Paths to Cooperation “Solutions for Situations”

36

37

The Nature of the Deal

Deal reached – but often fragile?

◦ Short term equilibrium, 2-3 years. But could move back. No once-for-all magic bullet.

◦ Deal may be in form, but substance needs work.

◦ Chance to initiate and institutionalize long term cooperative mechanisms?

◦ Big uncertainties in geopolitics, hydrology => Need for flexibility in deal. Implications for water (quantity) sharing?

Political Opportunity

Political Risk

EconomicBenefit

Economic Cost

Reflections/LessonsThe Last word

Systematic analysis and application helps.

Seize moments of political opportunity.Doable rather than desirable solutions.

Deals are temporary. Periodic assessment and action needed.

Solutions for situations.Train for the long haul

38

Lessons from work on International Waters

Information Need to capitalize on new information products (incl. earth observation) Move from limited data sharing to improving access to data, tools, and

knowledge products in the public domain (e.g. for disaster management, basin planning)

Institutions Strengthen regional institutions with strong links to national-level activities Strengthen links with academia and other knowledge institutions (e.g. through

internships) Improve shared vision planning and financing (riparian governments,

development partners)

Investments Improve frameworks to identify investments with development impacts at

regional scale Facilitate quality preparation, appraisal, and implementation of these

investments

+ Need to remain engaged in the long-term and look for emerging opportunities even in difficult situations of regional cooperation… 39