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Ovy i w ?; C=U}U-D lU}Q C QO =] Qt D VwQ Q...

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Page 1: Ovy i w ?; C=U}U-D lU}Q C QO =] Qt D VwQ Q |xQsjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_21457_10fe5df9d46ba6405aca5c550d1700fd.pdfq [= C =U} U - = D lU Q C} Q} O t xa r =] t =} ?; |=yxv=Nx}iYD

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icle?q[=i w ?; C=U}U-=D lU} Q C} Q}Ot xar=]t

RAMCAP w AHP |k}irD VwQ =@�OWQ= |U=vWQ� |wHWv=O� |raN}W O}Ht

�O=DU=� �|OQi xr=OU= =[Qtqe�Q=}O=DU=� xO=Rt=t= ?=yW O}U

|tRQ=wN x=oWv=O '|UOvyt w |vi xOmWv=O 'u=Qta |UOvyt xwQo

Qy w CU= |QwWm Qy |U=U= |=yCN=UQ} R w =yx}=tQU <RH ?q[=i w ?; C=U}U-=D|U=}U w |a=tDH= p�=Ut CU= umtt xv=t=U u}= x@ CQ=UN w |v=UQCtON hkwD wv

w xar=]t 'wQu}= R= "OR=Ov= Q]N x@ =Q =yu=Uv= u=H w |DtqU R}v w OW=@ xDW=O |B QO=D CU= |QwQ[ |r=tDL= CqtL Q@=Q@ QO xOW O=} C=U}U-=D |Q}PB?}U; w |}=Q=O |@=} RQ=xar=]t u}= QO xr�Ut u}= x@ xHwD =@ "OQm |R} Qxt=vQ@ |r=tDL= lU} Q Vy=m |=Q@ u=wD@

w ?; CN=UQ} R pm (AHP) |@D=QtxrUrU p}rLD w (RAMCAP) |k}irD VwQxar=]t u}= &CU= xOW |UQQ@ |Q}PBlU} Q w |}=Q=O VRQ= ^=Lr R= u=QyD QyW ?q[=i|HwR T} QD=t VwQ R= Q}Ut u}= QO w CU= �|}xaUwD wv� |OQ@ Q=m C=k}kLD |xQtR QO=@ |@D=QtxrUrU VwQ R= =yxO=O p}rLD |=Q@ &CU= xOW xO=iDU= xQ@N 42 C=Q_v PN= =@

|HwR C=U}=kt uOw@ |k]vt |=Q@ w CU= xOW xO=iDU= RAMCAP |=tvy=Q R= xO=iDU=u}= G}=Dv "CU= xOW xO=iDU= |Q=oR=U=v MQv R= xOW x�=Q= T} QD=t x@ xOvyO MU=B Qy

1 |}=Q=O VRQ= OOa uOw@ =Q=O =@ u=}Dr OU '=y|}=Q=O C}ty= Q_v R= OyO|t u=Wv xar=]tQO 0 6920 |}=Q=O VRQ= OOa =@ Qq OU u; R= Oa@ w CU= |}=Q=O VRQ= u} QDW}@ R�=L

?}DQDx@ |}=Q=O VRQ= OOa =@ xQ}NP uR=Nt w ?; `} RwD |xm@W w CU= swO h}OQOQix@ QYLvt '|OQmrta VRQ= '|O=YDk= VRQ= Q=}at xU |=v@t Q@ 0 0310 w 0 0312xm OW |@=} RQ= hrDNt O}OyD 12 u}vJty "OvQ=O Q=Qk |Q=PoVRQ= u}= QN; h}OQ QO uOw@1 l} x@ l}ORv OOa =@ �|}xDUyCU} R� |}xDUyw}@ wQm}t w |}=}t}W CqtL u}@ u}= QO

CqtL x@ \w@ Qt O}OyD R= |W=v |Q}PB?}U; u} QDW}@ "OvQ=O =Q wkw p=tDL= u} QDW}@&CU= 0 9310 |Q}PB?}U; OOa =@ u=}Dr OU x@ \w@ Qt R}v |}xDUy w |@ wQm}t '|}=}t}Wu} QDQ}PB?}U; <RH 0 6304 OOa =@ u=kr=] OU w 0 8353 OOa =@ Q}@mQ}t= OU TBU

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'RAMCAP '|Q}PB?}U; '|}=Q=O VRQ= 'CN=UQ} R 'lU} Q %|O}rm u=oS=w"AHP

xtOkt "1j} Q] R= Qo = utWO [3]"OwW |D}vt= |=yu=QL@ O=H}= |y=o w xat=H x@ |OH ?}U;=} |@} QND C=}rta =@ CU= umtt 'OW=@v |v=UQ?}U; x@ QO=k |m} R}i CqtL=} xOQ=w C=Q=UN u=Q@H xm Ovm xrtL |@; C=U}U-=D R= VN@ Qy x@ |R=UxOwr;|}x} wv=F EO=wL u; Q@ xwqa w Ow@ Oy=wN Q@u=tR w CNU Q=}U@ =yu; uOQm u} Ro}=HKQW x@ xv}tR u}= QO xDiQo s=Hv= C=k}kLD |NQ@ |xJN} Q=D [4]"OQm Oy=wN O=H}= =Q

%CU= Q} R|Q}PB?}U; Vy=m |=Q@ |}=yO=yvW}B w =yx}YwD '�1998� u=Q=mty w Rt}=yO}OyD "OvO=O x�=Q= |k=iD= |xrtL |w} Q=vU l} T=U= Q@ |vO}t=W; ?; |=yxv=t=U

R= |WN@ "CU= `t=wH |D=}L |=yR=}v R= |m} 'sr=U |vO}t=W; ?; x@ |UQDUOx=oDUO uwJty xm CU= ?q[=i w ?; C=U}U-=D C}vt= u}t-=D '|v=UQ?; C} Q}Ot[2w1]"OR=U|t QU}t xat=H QO =Q C=}L w C}r=ai |xt=O= u=mt= 'uO@ QO uwN VOQo'utWO \UwD |Q=m?=QN C=}rta QO |y=o '|v=UQ?; C=U}U-=D C}ty= x@ xHwD =@x@ QHvt CU= umtt xm OvQ}o|t Q=Qk hOy |OQ@y=Q Rm =Qt u=wvax@ C=U}U-=D u}=

pw�Ut xOvU} wv �"1398 1 31 VQ}PB '1398 1 17 x}LqY= '1397 10 18 Ci=} QO %M} Q=D

DOI:10.24200/J30.2019.52458.2473

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Page 2: Ovy i w ?; C=U}U-D lU}Q C QO =] Qt D VwQ Q |xQsjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_21457_10fe5df9d46ba6405aca5c550d1700fd.pdfq [= C =U} U - = D lU Q C} Q} O t xa r =] t =} ?; |=yxv=Nx}iYD

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r=]t=} ?; |=yxv=Nx}iYD |Q}PB Q]N |@=} RQ= 1397 p=U QO u=Q=mty w V@=D|x}rqH |xv=Nx}iYD |OQwt |xar=]t� |R=i |=]N CNQO p}rLD R= xO=iDU=wO =@ =]N CNQO lU} Q p}rLD VwQ =@ xv=Nx}iYD lU} Q |@=} RQ= x@ �u=QyDxar=]t u}= QO xOW |}=U=vW ?wr]t=v O=O} wQ "Ov=xDN=OQB xO=U w |R=i OQm} wQ|@=QN OW XNWt x}=B C=O}OyD |Ov@x@DQ =@ "Ow@ ?; ?U=vt=v C}i}m w C}tmOQmrta QO =Q Q}F-=D u} QDW}@ =yAtB ?U=vt=v |Q=Oyov w Q}taD '|v=UQjQ@ C=R}yHD

[13]"OvQ=O xv=Nx}iYD|v=UQ?; |xv=t=U lU} Q |x@U=Lt x@ 1396 p=U QO u=Q=mty w |aNvx@ \w@ Qt X=N C=O}OyD w =y|}=Q=O |@=} RQ= x@ =OD@= VywSB u}= QO "OvDN=OQBOW xDN=OQB =y|}=Q=O |Q}PB?}U; COW |@=} RQ= x@ xt=O= QO w |v=UQ?; |xv=t=UVwQ R= xO=iDU= =@ =y|}=Q=O R= l} Qy lU} Q OOa |x@U=Lt =@ C}=yv QO w=yx=J w =yxv=Nx}iYD 'S=BtB x=oDU}= x=Qty x@ uR=Nt '=yOU |}=Q=O ?}DQDx@ 6AmtQXNWt j}kLD u}= G}=Dv Qo}O R= "OvOW XNWt Q}PB?}U; |=yOL=w u=wvax@w |mWwt CqtL '?; |oOwr; pt=W xv=t=U u}= Q@ Q=PoQ}F-=D |x}=B C=O}OyD uOW

[14]"CU= |Q@}=U CqtL TBUxO=iDU= =@ jQ@ w ?; |=yu=} QW |iQat =@ 1393 p=U QO u=Q=mty w |QOvmU=|Q}PB?}U; |@=} RQ= |=Q@ w} Q=vU 240 7h}Dvw�r pOt w h=Qo |x} Q_v pOt wO R=Q=Hiv= |w} Q=vU xQ}eDtlD |=yw} Q=vU u}@ QO xm OvO=O x�=Q= =yu=} QW u}= lU} Q wjQ@ CUB l} w xv=Nx}iYD wO Q=Hiv= |@}mQD |=yw} Q=vU u}@ QO w xv=Nx}iYD QO

[15]"OvDW=O =Q wkw p=tDL= u} QDW}@C} Q}Ot |=Q@ |R} Qxt=vQ@ Qw_vtx@ 1392 p=U QO u=Q=mty w u=} QoUa|} wor= 'R=Uu=Uv= w |a}@] C=Q]N RwQ@ Ovv=t '|v=QL@ \}=QW QO xm@W OQmrta&OvOQm u} wOD =yu=QL@ =@ xyH=wt QO ?q[=i |=yxm@W lU} Q |@=} RQ= |=Q@w =yu; QF= COW 'C=O}OyD wkw p=tDL= xm lU} Q |=yQDt=Q=B wor= u}= QO|xYN=WOvJ |Q}os}tYD |=yVwQ R= xO=iDU= =@ 'OvOw@ xm@W |=RH= |Q}PB?}U;|Q}oxR=Ov= =yu; QF= VHvU |=Q@ |}=yQ=}at h} QaD w xt=vVUQB j} Q] R= |R=i

[16]"OvOWOvi=OB Q_vt R=� =yv; |Q}PB?}U; 'QwWm |@; |=y CN=UQ} R C}ty= x@ xHwD =@|v=QL@ \}=QW =@ xyH=wt QO |Q}PB?}U; Vy=m |=yQ=my=Q u}vJty w �pt=aQ}e|@=} RQ= u=Q}= QO 'p}@k u}= R= |OQ=wt w Q=Hiv= w |t=_v sH=yD uwJty |D=Q]N wu=wD@ =D CU= |D=}L C}ty= |=Q=O |@; C=U}U-=D |}=Q=O VRQ= u}}aD R}v w lU} Q"OQm xO=iDU= |@; C=U}U-=D x@ |r=tDL= CQ=UN Vy=m |R} Qxt=vQ@ QO u; G}=Dv R=|}=U=vW '|v=UQ?; |xv=t=U |=y|}=Q=O |Q=PoVRQ= xar=]t u}= R= hOy|@=} RQ= '=y|}=Q=O |Q}PB?}U; OOa |x@U=Lt w O}OyD Qy uOQm |:tm w C=O}OyD|=yVwQ j}irD R= xO=iDU= =@ |}=Q=O u} QDQ}PB lU} Q |}=U=vW w xv=t=U pm lU} Q

"CU= 9 AHPw 8 RAMCAP

xar=]t |xOwOLt "2"CU= u=QyD QyW |v=UQ?; |rY= C=U}U-=D s=tD VywSB |xOwOLt w =[i|=yOU R= Ov=CQ=@a Q[=L p=L QO u=QyD QyW |v=UQ?; |xv=t=U |rY= |=RH='CQ=} R OU 'wrt=t OU '|Qwie O}yW 'OwQtv 'u=}Dr 'Qq 'u=kr=] '�Q}@mQ}t=� GQmQO "xv=NOwQ w j}ta x=J xkrL |O=OaD w `} RwD |xm@W '=yxv=Nx@trD '=yxv=Nx}iYDQO pt=aQ}e Ovi=OB C=O}ytD |UQQ@ CQwQ[ lQO w OwHwt `[w CN=vW |=DU=Q

|=yxv=t=U|=Q@ �lD=}=Q� |Q@}=U w|DU} R '|}=}t}W '|m} R}i O}OyDpt=W|DU} QwQD|=yx=oO}O|=Q@ 1|@D=QtxrUrU �|Q=ov s=tD�|i=QowrwypOtl} "OW xDiQo Q_v QO?;

[5]"OW |iQat ?; |=yxv=t=U R= C_=iL OQwt QO hrDNtu=yvB C=QF= pOt R= xO=iDU= =@ ?; u}t-=D |=yxv=t=U C=O}OyD|@=} RQ= OQm} wQl}u}= "CU= xOW x�=Q= 2005 p=U QO u=Q=mty w pwO}D \UwD 2 (MLE) hwmQ=t|=Q@ s}tYD QY=va =} R} Q |=yxv=t=U x@ xO}J}B O}OyD |xv=t=U l} |x} RHD 'VwQ|Q}os}tYD QY=va s=tD TBU "CU= -=O@t R= XNWt O}OyD l} p}rLD w x} RHD"CU= O}OyD Q=@Da= |xOvyOu=Wv xm O};|t CUO x@ |@=} RQ= |xQtv w OvwW|t `tHhrDNt |xrtL wO =@ |QyW |ak=w ?; `} RwD |xv=t=U l} |wQ Q@ OQm} wQ u}=xv=t=U C}vt= K]U xrtL Qy |=Q@ &�sU� |oOwr; j} QRD w |Q=Po?t@ %OW p=ta=

[6]"OW |@=} RQ=|xm@W QY=va |Ov@x@DQ |=Q@ =Q |WwQ 2006 p=U QO T}mqDUB= w O=J}thOy x@ uO}UQ |=Q@ xm OvOQm u=}@ w OvO=O x�=Q= |Q}PB?}U; Q_vt R= |v=UQ?;|}=yOt=}B xJ #OyO MQ Ov=wD|t|y=@DW= xJ p}@k R=|Dq=-wU x@ O}=@lU} Q|@=} RQ=,qwtat |v=}=B |=yCr=L =} Ot=}B "O=O MU=B u=wD@ #CU= ptDLt u=R}t xJ w #OQ=O|=yOt=}B Ovv=t |v=}=B |=yCr=L Qo}O xJQo = &CU= \@DQt sOQt |vt}= w CtqU =@'xar=]t wQW |x]kv xm OvOw@ OkDat u=v; "OwW pt=W CU= umtt R}v =Q |O=YDk=p}rLD |=Q@ xm OvDi=} QO w CU= |v=UQ?; |xm@W CN=UQ} R |=y|}=Q=O |}=U=vWu}= |=Q@ xOta s=o "OwW xDiQo Q_v QO O}=@ xv=t=U QY=va C}iQ_ |Q}PB?}U; `t=H

[7]"CU= xv=t=U pm |@=} RQ= `t=H |Q}PB?}U; |@=} RQ=3(I�VAM)CN=UQ} R|Q}PB?}U;|@=} RQ= s=v x@|WwQ2007p=UQOpR}=p=ta= \UwDt T=}kt QO |vO}t=W; ?; |xv=t=U l} |=Q@ xOW x�=Q= pOt "OQm x�=Q=|@=} RQ= w |yOuRw '|yOVRQ= |=Q@ XYNDt u=U=vWQ=m R= pOt u}= QO "OWOv=wD|t I-VAM xOt; CUO x@ G}=Dv j@] "OW xO=iDU= xv=t=U |D_=iL C=t=Ok=w pQDvm Q@ CQ=_v |=yxv=t=U '=yCN=UQ} R Q}=U x@ |Q}PB?}U; |Q}oxR=Ov= |=Q@

[8]"OwW xO=iDU= `} RwD pQDvm |=yxv=t=U w 4 (SCADA) =yxO=O |Qw;`tH|@D=Qt xrUrU p}rLD VwQ wO |=v@t Q�@ =Q |rOt 2010 'p=�U QO O} R w TQiC} w[a `@=wD R= xO=iDU= =@ |R=i u}v=wk pOt u}= QO "OvOQm x�=Q= |R=i G=DvDU= wu�}= T=U= Q@ ,=D}=yv w OwW|t xDN=U =yxrwr CUmW Q@ Q=PoQ}F-=D |=yQDt=Q=B |R=i

[9]"OwW|t u}}aD CUmW lU} Q Q_v R= =yxrwr C}a[w 'u}v=wk|v=UQ?; |=yxv=t=U lU} Q p}rLD |=Q@ =Q |WwQ 2011 p=U QO =mURwQm|Q}PB?}U; w COW 'p=�tDL= \=�@DQ= |=�v@t Q�@ |R=�i u}v=w�k CN=U |=v@t Q@

[10]"OQm |UQQ@ u=DUyr QwWm QO |}xm@�W QO =Q u; OQ@ Q=�m w O=O x��=Q=?; |xm@W R= C_=iL u=wva =@ '|}xar=]t QO 2013 p=U QO u=Q=mty w wOQvnQR@ T=}kt R= =Q |QyW ?; |xm@W '|Ov@s}UkD |xv=t=U\UwD '|Ota |oOwr; R=|UQQ@ =Q lJwm =@ nQR@ T=}kt QO |oOwr; VQDUo |xwLv w s}UkD lJwm x@|Ov@s}UkD CQwY QO |r=t w |v=H CQ=UN Vy=m |xOvyOu=Wv G}=Dv "OvOQm

[11]"Ow@ ?U=vt|Q}PB?}U; XN=W� u=wva =@ |k}kLD QO 2018 p=U QO =UwDv=B w wr}t|=Q@ pOt l} �|DU} QwQD |xrtL |=Q@ |vO}t=W; ?; |=yxv=t=U |=yCN=UQ} R|oOwr; wO Qy w OvOQm x�=Q= |vO}t=W; ?; `} RwD |xv=t=U CN=UQ} R |Q}PB?}U;|@D=QtxrUrU Q=DN=U l} R= pOt u}= "OvDiQo Q_v QO =Q |m} R}i ?}U; w |Ota|@D=QtxrUrU |r}rLD OvwQ R= w xOQm x} RHD |}=RH= x@ =Q xv=t=U w CU= xOQm xO=iDU=xvwDQm u=DU= QO ?; KQ] xU |=Q@ pOt u}= "CU= xOW xO=iDU= uRw |x@U=Lt |=Q@

[12]"OW xOwtR; 5�=}r=D}= ?wvH�

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Page 3: Ovy i w ?; C=U}U-D lU}Q C QO =] Qt D VwQ Q |xQsjce.journals.sharif.edu/article_21457_10fe5df9d46ba6405aca5c550d1700fd.pdfq [= C =U} U - = D lU Q C} Q} O t xa r =] t =} ?; |=yxv=Nx}iYD

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wendi = wi � wj + : : :+ wi � wmwi = XN=W uRw i = 1; 2; : : : ; i n = XN=W O=OaDwJ = Q=}at uRw j = 1; 2; : : : ;m m = Q=}at O=OaDwendi=XN=W |}=yv uRw i (5)

x@U=Lt 6 |x]@=Q R= w CU= |atH |HvUQ_v R= pY=L Q=}at Qy |}=yv uRw Q}O=kt%OwW|t

w0j = kpwj1 � wj2 � � � � � wjk (6)

&u=oQ@N |atHD Q_v |=v@t Q@ j Q=}at |}=yv uRw �w0j&u=oQ@N O=OaD �k

"s=k |xQ@N Q_v |=v@t Q@ j Q=}at |}=yv uRw �wjk%OwW|t x@U=Lt 7 |x]@=Q R= |atHD Q_v pY=L XN=W Qy |}=yv uRw

w0endi = kpwend1 � wend2 � � � � � wendk (7)

"u=oQ@N Q_v |=v@t Q@ iXN=W |}=yv uRw �w0end i2 8 xNUv 'Super Decisions Q=Ri=sQv \UwD =y|}=Q=O |HwR C=U}=kt =@|}=yv uRw |xS} w Q=OQ@ C}=yv QO [21]"OvwW|t pY=L x]w@ Qt O=Oa= �2015�

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37777777777777775(8)

xOW |}=U=vW |=y|}=Q=O |HwR C=U}=kt R= xQ@N |xt=vVUQB |x}yD |=Q@CQwYx@ �AHP Q=Pou=}v@� |Da=U xHQO xv T=}kt R= |yOR=}Dt= |=Q@ "OW xO=iDU=

[22]"OW xO=iDU= 1 pwOH

=yxO=O |Qw;`tH |xwLv "4"OW xDiQo ltm Q} R \@ Q|P `H=Qt R= ?}DQDx@ =yxO=O w C=�aq�]= |Qw;OQo QOu=DU= ?q[=i w ?; CmQW 'u=QL@ C} Q}Ot w QwWm pt=aQ}e Ovi=OB C=ar=]t RmQt|xUU-wt 'u=Q}= ?; `@=vt C} Q}Ot CmQW 'u=QyD |}xk]vt ?; |=yCmQW 'u=QyDu}UOvyt CmQW '�Q}@=U� |Q=}?; C=U}U-=D w OU u=tDN=U CmQW '?; C=k}kLD'u=Q}= |wQ}v w ?; `@=vt |xaUwD CmQW '?q[=i w ?; C=k}kLD w KQ] Qw=WtC} wrw= QO "QDW= lr=t |DavY x=oWv=O |a=iO |=yxR=U w pt=aQ}e Ovi=OB xwQoO=Qi= u}@ 'xQ@N |xt=vVUQB ?r=k `} RwD VwQ R= ' w[wt C}y=t p}rO x@ CUNv

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�References� `@=vt1. Sadiq, R. and et al. \Aggregative risk analysis for water

quality failure in distribution networks", 53(4), pp. 241-261 (2004).

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4. Gleick, P.H.J.W.p. \Water and terrorism", water pol-icy,8(6), pp. 481-503 (2006).

5. Haimes, Y.Y. and et al. \Reducing vulnerability of wa-ter supply systems to attack", Journal of Infrastructuresystems, 4(4), pp. 164-177 (1998).

6. Tidwell, V.C. and et al. \Threat assessment of watersupply systems using markov latent e�ects modeling",World Water and Environmental Resources Congress,131(3), pp. 218-227 (2004).

7. Michaud, D. and Apostolakis, G.E.J.J.O.I.S. \Methodol-ogy for ranking the elements of water-supply networks",Journal of infrastructure systems, 12(4), pp. 230-242(2006).

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