OxREP workshop Monday 14 April 2008.
The Demographic Consequences of Immigration to Europe
David Coleman, University of [email protected]
http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop
Netherlands: foreign citizen and foreign –
origin populations 1956 – 2003. Source: CBS.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Foreign citizens
All foreign origin
First generation, all foreign origin
Second generation, all foreignoriginNon-Western foreign originpopulation
Migration – a heterogeneous process. Many streams, many ‘causes’, many
consequences.• ‘Pull’ and ‘push’ factors; inequalities.• Population pressures.• Force, political instability and persecution.• Environmental change.• Labour demand and recruitment• Opportunities for ‘betterment’.• Chains and bridgeheads, family and marriage.• Population ageing. • Subversion, terrorism and crime.• Policies in sending and receiving countries
Migration theory – rather a mess
• Economists’ ‘equilibrium’ models – supply and demand for labour and capital.
• Economic refinements – cost/benefit decisions; household investments;
• World systems theory, Global cities; Segmented or ‘dual’ labour markets.
• Networks, Cumulative causation. ‘transnational’ populations, non-economic movement.
• Recent rediscovery of policy.
Some components of gross immigration inflows to Western Europe (blue is family; OECD
2003)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Australia 2
Switzerland
United Kingdom 3
Portugal
Canada
Norway 4
Denmark
France 5
United States 6
Sweden 7
Workers Family reunification Refugees
Southern Europe and its neighbours
Southern Europe and North Africa: Projections 1990 - 2050 (millions).Source UN World Population Prospects - the 2002 revision
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Southern Europe
North Africa
Turkey and Western EuropePopulation trends and projections, selected European countries and
Turkey 1950-2050 (millions). Source: United Nations 2004-based estimates.
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
France
Germany
Italy
United Kingdom
Turkey
Long-term trends of migration to a ‘country of immigrants’
Gross immigration inflows to the United States 1820 - 2002.
Source: US Immigration and Naturalization Service
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
1820
1827
1834
1841
1848
1855
1862
1869
1876
1883
1890
1897
1904
1911
1918
1925
1932
1939
1946
1953
1960
1967
1974
1981
1988
1995
2002
Long-term trends to a ‘country of emigrants’
UK Net Immigration (2 definitions) 1962-2005 (thousands). Source: ONS.
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
thou
san
ds
Net balance corrected Post-2001 Census (re-revised)
Net foreign immigration to the EU 1960-2005. Net foreign immigration to EU-15 1960 - 2007 (thousands).
Source: Eurostat, various years. Statistics in Focus (to 2005) and website table (to 2007)
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
thousands
EU 15 net migration (thousands)
EU 15 net migration residual method
Figure 2 Natural change and net migration, Europe 2006. Source: Eurostat.
Netherlands
Malta
Macedonia
Spain
Cyprus
FranceDenmark
UK
Italy
SwedenBelgium
FinlandSlovakia
PolandMoldova
Lithuania
Romania
Czech R.
Belarus Estonia
Latvia
Russian Fed.Ukraine
Iceland
NorwaySwitzerland
Ireland
Greece
Hungary
Austria
Germany
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-8.0 -7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
natural change per thousand of population
net
mig
rati
on p
er t
hou
san
d o
f p
opu
lati
on
Numbers of foreign-born and non-citizens compared to
native born and citizens in selected European countries, around 2000 millions Foreign
Native-born Foreign-born Immigrants All Foreigners citizens as non- non- all imm- as percent foreigners as percent percent of
citizens citizens all citizens citizens igrants total pop. total pop. immigrants
Austria 6.9 0.1 7.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 12.5 0.7 8.8 70.8 Belgium 9.0 0.2 9.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 10.7 0.8 8.2 77.0
Denmark 4.9 0.0 5.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 6.8 0.3 4.8 71.6 Finland 5.0 0.0 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 0.1 1.7 68.3
France 52.1 0.5 52.7 3.1 2.8 5.9 10.0 3.3 5.6 55.6 N'lands 14.3 0.1 14.4 1.1 0.6 1.6 10.1 0.7 4.2 41.3
Portugal 9.7 0.0 9.7 0.4 0.2 0.7 6.3 0.2 2.2 35.6
Spain 38.6 0.1 38.7 0.7 1.5 2.2 5.3 1.6 3.8 72.4 Sweden 7.8 0.1 7.9 0.7 0.4 1.1 12.0 0.5 5.3 44.1
UK 53.9 4.9 8.3 2.6 4.4 53.2
Note: persons of undeclared status excluded.
Source: Dumont and Lemaitre 2005, Annex 2 p. 34 except UK citizenship data from Salt 2004, Report to the OECD of the UK SOPEMI Correspondent 2004, t. 4.1.
Migration Research Unit, Dept of Geography, University College London.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Cyp
rus
Spa
inU
SA
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Irela
ndS
witz
erla
ndA
ustr
iaM
alta
Luxe
mbo
urg
(G-D
)N
orw
ayS
wed
enLi
echt
enst
ein
Net
herla
nds
EU
-15
Fran
ce m
étro
polit
aine
EU
_hig
h G
DP
Eur
o ar
ea (
EU
R-1
2)Ic
elan
dIta
lyD
enm
ark
Bel
gium
EU
-25
Fin
land
Por
tuga
lE
U_l
ow G
DP
Ger
man
yG
reec
eE
ston
iaR
ussi
aH
unga
ryC
zech
Rep
ublic
New
Mem
ber S
tate
sLa
tvia
Rom
ania
Slo
veni
aS
lova
kia
Pol
and
Lith
uani
aB
ulga
ria
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Combined Fertility Original Fertility (TF) Migratory Fertility MF range
Replacement Level
Year: 2004
England and Wales: percent of births to immigrant mothers 1971 - 2006. Source: ONS Series FM1 table 9.1 (various years).
0
5
10
15
20
25
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Mother born outside UK
Mother born in New Commonwealth
Migration can go down as well as up… (EU, Germany)
Migration to Germany 1954 - 2003, by citizenship. Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Wiesbaden. Up to 1990 German Federal Republic only.
- 300 000
- 200 000
- 100 000
-
+ 100 000
+ 200 000
+ 300 000
+ 400 000
+ 500 000
+ 600 000
+ 700 000
+ 800 000
1954
2)
1956
2)
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Net migration Germans including aussiedler Foreigners
Consequences of migration
• Demographic change. Growth and decline, age-structure effects, depopulation.
• Salvation through migration?
• Economic change – who benefits?
• Replacement migration.
• Ethnic change
UK population 2003-2051(1000s) : no decline imminent.
UK population projected to 2081, GAD Principal Projection, Natural Change and high and low migration variants (millions). Source: Government Actuary's Department 2007
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066 2071 2076 2081
Principal projection
Natural change
High migration: 250,000
Low migration: 130,000
UK population 1900 - 2081 (millions), actual and projected. Source: ONS, GAD
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
9019
00
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
UK population
2006-based Principal Projection
GAD / ONS projections of the UK population, 2006-based (millions). Population increase Percent of from 2006 (millions) increase in Principal Natural difference with without PP due to
year Projection Change (millions) migration migration migration 2006 60.6 60.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 2026 69.3 63.6 5.6 8.7 3.0 65.1 2031 71.1 63.8 7.3 10.5 3.2 69.4 2051 77.3 62.3 15.0 16.7 1.7 89.8 2081 85.3 57.3 27.9 24.7 -3.3 (all)
Source: data from GAD website
Table 3 Effects of independent variables on total net immigration to the UK (thousands per annum) 1976-80 to 1986-90 to 1996-2000 1996-2000 Change in UK unemployment rate 13.4 -6.1 Log GDP per capita ratio 2.6 0.6 Gini coefficient ratio 36.6 13.1 Europe dummy variable 12.0 12.0 Other country dummy variables 5.4 4.1 UK policy dummy variable 33.8 33.8 Explained total 103.8 57.5 Actual total 113.0 69.4 Source: Hatton 2005 table 8 Note: the 'actual totals' of migration do not seem to make sense.
Work permits holders and dependants admitted, UK 1973-2006.
Source: Home Office Control of Immigration Statistics
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
16000019
73
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
≥12 months <12 months dependants total
Spouse migration by sex and NC origin, UK 1973-2005Source: Home Office acceptances for settlement.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Accepted for settlement as husbandAccepted for settlement as wifeAdmitted as husband or fiance
Admitted as wife or fiancee
Probabilistic projection of UK population 2001-51 (1000s) within given confidence limits. Source: Coleman and Scherbov 2005.
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0.025
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
0.975
Comparison of UK PSR, and population aged 20-24 (millions), 2006 - 2081.
Source GAD 2006-based projections
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066 2071 2076 2081
PSR Principal projection; migration =190,000
PSR Natural change
Population 20-24 Principal Projection
Population 20-24 natural change
Table 5 Summary of population projections by 'foreign
origin' or ‘foreign background’. Austria Denmark Germany Netherlands 2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050 Population (millions) 8.1 7.8 5.4 5.5 82.2 68.3 15.9 16.9 Immigration rate 0.07 0.2 0.29 0.21 0.25 0.27 0.17 0.27
% 'Western' 5.4 7.9 2.4 3.3 3.3 5.4 8.6 13.2 % 'Non-Western' 3.9 5.1 6.0 11.5 6.6 18.2 8.9 16.5 % 'Foreign origin' 9.3 28.0 8.7 14.8 9.9 23.6 17.5 29.7 Norway Sweden UK USA 2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050 2005 2050 Population (millions) 4.6 5.6 9.0 10.6 52.0 63.1 287.7 403.7 Immigration rate 0.37 0.30 0.37 0.29 0.50 0.27 0.35 0.24 % 'Western' 4.1 9.2 9.7 10.5 2.7 11.6 % 'Non-Western' 3.4 14.3 6.3 10.7 8.7 24.5 % 'Foreign origin' 7.5 23.5 15.9 32.3 11.4 36.1 17.6 33.2 Note: US data includes non-white foreign origin only. White immigrants comprised 17-19% of immigrants 2000-2050. Austrian total percent foreign origin derived by subtraction in 'Compensation' scenario to exclude naturalisation. Subtotals include naturalisation. Source: For sources and details of assumptions and methods see Coleman (2006)
Netherlands 2005- 2050. Percent of population of foreign orgin ('Western' and 'non-Western') with and without migration. Source: CBS.
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
percent foreign-origin with zeromigration, 2003-based
percent foreign-origin 2004-based
Sweden 2004-2050: projected total population, millions, standard and zero-
migration assumptions. Projected total population, Sweden 2004-2050, standard and zero
migration assumptions. Source: Statistics Sweden.
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
Zero-migration projection (millions)
Standard projection (millions)
UK population size required to maintain given PSRs by immigration, 2000 - 2100 (millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
35020
00
2010
2020
2025
2030
2050
2060
2080
2100
PSR 3.0 PSR 3.5 PSR 4.22
Ethnic replacement:
• Continued migration from one population, into another with sub-replacement fertility, must eventually replace one with the other.
• If incoming populations have higher fertility, the process will be accelerated.
• Migration, not differential fertility, dominant effect.
Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100
US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.
0.000
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
2053
2056
2059
2062
2065
2068
2071
2074
2077
2080
2083
2086
2089
2092
2095
2098
Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH
Probabilistic projections of the UK – average outcome for major groups (%).
UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
White
Black
Asian
Mixed
Comparison of results of European foreign-origin projections
Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050,
selected countries, as percent of total population.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
per
cen
t
Germany medium variant
USA medium variant (excludes black population)
Netherlands base scenario
Denmark 2002- based medium variant
Sweden foreign background 2004 based
Austria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.
Conclusions
• Migration now a primary driver of population change in many low TFR countries. Not Far East, some CEE.
• Patterns, sources, causes and consequences highly heterogeneous
• Mixed economic consequences• Can moderate, not solve ageing• Possible ‘third demographic transition’
