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10/1/02007 David Downie 1 Global Policy to protect Stratospheric Ozone David Leonard Downie Columbia University Guest Speaker V 1003: Science & Society – Fall 2007
10/1/02007 David Downie 1
Global Policyto protect
Stratospheric Ozone
David Leonard DownieColumbia University
Guest Speaker V 1003: Science & Society – Fall 2007
10/1/02007 David Downie 2
Ozone Hole
Darkest blue areas represent regions of maximum ozone depletion
1979
19821984 1986
1988 1990
19921994
1997
1999
2004
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Global Ozone Policy - Why Care?
1. Very Important Issue - Ozone in stratosphere helps shield earth from UV radiation.
2. Very Difficult Problem to Solve - ozone-depleting substances (ODS) were considered essential to modern life and potentially impossible to replace.ODS include: CFCs, Halons, Methyl Bromide, HCFCs, MC, CTC, Bromochloromethane (BCM)
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Global Ozone Policy - Why Care?
3. A Successful and Influential Example
Global membership.Strong set of binding rules (international law).1985 Vienna Convention1987 Montreal ProtocolAmendments and Adjustments to the Protocol (1990 London Amendment, 1992 Copenhagen, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007).Decisions by MOPs.
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Successful Example – So Far
Robust Set of Component InstitutionsRegime Principles, Norms, Rules, & ProceduresMultilateral FundGEFAssessment Panels (Science; Environmental Effects; Technology and Economic Assessment) Non-compliance procedures (Implementation Committee)Implementing Agencies (UNEP, World Bank, UNDP, UNIDO)
Elements incorporated into future treaties (and intentionally not-incorporated)
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Successful Example – So Far
Effective International PolicyProduction and consumption of almost all ODS (CFCs, etc.) declining on global scale.
Atmospheric concentrations of most ODS stabilized or dropping.
Stratospheric concentrations of Cl and Br dropping.
Production and Consumption of CFCs and several other ODS nearly eliminated in OECD countries, as required.
Developing countries largely met CFC freeze in 2000 and meeting or expected to reductions.
Positive Impact on Climate Change (CFCs about 1000 times GWP as CO2; Ozone Regime responsible for eliminating equivalent of about 10-20 years of CO2 emissions).
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Key Causal Factors Shaping the Development of International Ozone Layer Policy
1. Advancing Scientific and Technical Knowledge (information and consensus)
2. Economic Interests (changing patterns; regime influence interests)
3. Existing Institutions / Regime / Policy Structure – international institutions and regime/policy design matters
These groups of meta-factors create `structures’ that influence outcomes.
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1. Advancing Scientific and Technical Knowledge/Information
“Framed” the Debate - “Constrained” ActorsInfluenced Epistemic Community DevelopmentInfluenced Public OpinionFormal/Acknowledged Role in Treaty - Basis for Treaty ExpansionSln K provided confidence – allowed for rapid innovation
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2. Economic Interests“Traditional” Retarding ImpactShaped National Proposals for International RegulationsRegulation Produced InnovationInternational Regulation ‘Re-Cartelized’ ODS Production – allowed for rapid policy expansionMultilateral Fund Worked – economically and politicallyEffective Incentives in USA – excise tax.
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3. International Institutions and Extant Regime / Policy Structure
Int. Institutions provided foundation, basis & opportunity to initiate, sustain and build policy.Pre-emptive (at least originally)Control Measures - Clear, Strong, Simple, Binding, Total Phase-Out Goal, Differentiated ResponsibilitiesAbility to Grow in Response to New Information
Requirement to consider action; Information to base decision (Assessment Panels); Ability to make decisions; Rapid implementation of decisions possible (Amendment and Adjustments, Decisions of Parties, MF)
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3. International Institutions and Extant Regime / Policy Structure
Financial Mechanism - Multilateral Fund (hugely imp political deal; membership carrot; economic interests; adjustment costs).Trade Sanctions (membership stick)Non-Compliance ProceduresUNEP as designated regime organization
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Ozone Regime
1930s CFCs are invented1974 CFC – Ozone Theory Published
1977 – 1978 First International Meetings
1977 – 1981 Domestic Controls:U.S.A., Canada, Nordic Countries, European Community
1979 Margaret Thatcher Elected1980 Ronald Reagan Elected
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Ozone Regime
1982 Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee formed.
1983 “Toronto Group” Proposal.1985 Ozone Hole Discovery
published.1985 Vienna Convention.
Framework treaty.No controls.No mention of CFCs.
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Ozone Regime
1987 Montreal Protocol.Centerpiece of the regime.50% cuts on 5 CFCs and 3 Halons by 2000.10-year grace party for developing countries (Article 5).Assessment panels.Amendment and adjustment procedures.
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Ozone Regime
1990 London Amendment and Adjustments.
•100% cut on 15 CFCs, Halons, CT, MC by 2000 from 1986 levels.
1992 Copenhagen Amendment and Adjustments.
•100% cut on 15 CFCs, Halons, CT, MC by 1996 from 1986 levels.
•HCFCs and Methyl Bromide added.
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Ozone Regime
1995 Vienna Amendment and Adjustments.• HCFCs consumption controls increased.• Grace period – informally
adjusted/expanded for developing countries.
1997 Montreal Amendment and Adjustments.• Methyl Bromide to be phased out by 2005 –
with loophole retained.
1999 Beijing Amendment and Adjustments.• HCFC production controls; restrictions on
HCFC trade with non-Parties; production and consumption controls for new group of substances, Bromochloromethane (BCM)
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Since 1999
Efforts to increase controls MB (USA opposition at times).
Efforts to speed controls on HCFCs.
Enhances focus on FTA in particular areas to ensure full compliance by developing countries.
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Ozone Regime
2007 Montreal Adjustment: 191 Parties to the Montreal Protocol reached a historic agreement late Friday night, September 21, 2007 to strengthen the ozone treaty by speeding up by ten years the phase-out of HCFCs.
The agreement will advance the recovery of the ozone layer by several years and, because HCFCs are GHGs, reduce GHG emissions by up to 25 billion tons of CO2 equivalent—five times more than the Kyoto Protocol will do during its initial reduction period from 2008 to 2012.
As part of the agreement, developed country Parties
promised to continue paying into Multilateral Fund.
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2007 Montreal Adjustment: Developed Country Parties:
Baseline: 1989 levels (plus 2.8% of 1989 CFC levels). 75% reduction on 1 Jan 2010 (up from 65%) 90% on 1 Jan 2015Continuing use of 0.5% from 2020 to 2030
Developing Country Parties: (old schedule – 2016 freeze at 2015 level and 100% cut in 2040)
Base level 2009-2010 average (incentive?)Freeze on 1 Jan 201310% reduction on 1 Jan 201535% on 1 Jan 202067.5% on 1 Jan 2025Continuing use of 2.5% from 2030 to 2040
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Future Success?
New Scientific ChallengesNew ODS?Relation to climate change.CFCs and HCFCs in developing countries – will complete phase-outs really occur.Methyl bromide – exemptions.Enough time?
