New Coupled Climate-Carbon Simulations with the IPSL ModelFrom validation with atmospheric CO2 and satellite
data to feedback analysis
P. CADULE, L. BOPP, P. FRIEDLINGSTEIN
13/10/2005
2
Either weaker sinks or sources according to future projections with identical IPCC CO2 and Climate scenarii
[IPCC TAR, 2001]
Carbon Models Offline Responses
3
Carbon Models Online Responses
Large panel of possible responses due to a wide range of climate and carbon models sensitivities
Atm. [CO2]
[C4MIP- Friedlingstein et al., 2005]
Δ[CO2]max= 224 ppm
Δ[CO2]min = 19 ppm
All models have a positive feedback but …
4
Climate Change and Carbon Cycle Interactions
Wide range of climate and carbon models sensitivity [C4MIP-Friedlingstein et al., 2005]
climate sensitivity
ocean sensitivity to [CO2]
land sensitivity to [CO2] land sensitivity to T°
ocean sensitivity to T°
5
• The need for Carbon-Climate Coupling – Modeling the carbon cycle– Coupling it with the climate
• But now essentially– Better understand processes individually– Confront results to observations
Pushing towards convergence of processes and their responses
“ En résumé ”
6
IPCC Climate Coupled Model
Terrestrial biosphereORCHIDEE
(SECHIBA only)
OceanORCA-LIM
OPA 8.2
AtmosphereLMDZ.3.3 coupler
ClimateAtmospheric[CO2]
∆t = physic time step
Carbon
CO2 forcing, as well as CH4, N2O and CFC forcing
[CO2] = external forcing
CO2 concentration
provided by IPCC (ext. forcing)
Marti, 2005
7
• Integration of Carbon Models (PISCES et Stomate)• Wind exchange from ATM to PISCES
– Modification in LMDZ4 to send the wind– Addition of a field in the coupler– Modification in OPA to receive the wind
• Filling closed seas• Monthly fluxes computation and storage in a file• CO2 update each month• Creation and generation of new
– Restart files– Input files (*def, namelists, namcouple, emissions)– Output files
• Adaptation of Job launching• Post Treatments• Configuration set-up POF and OOF off-line models• Rebuild the world when CCRT has lost it !!! • LOOP config on CVS
A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model
8
Net total carbon flux Fluxland + Fluxocean
12.2
2 oceanland FluxFluxEMI
dt
COd
Terrestrial biosphereORCHIDEE
(STOMATE activated)
MarineBiochemistry
PISCES
OceanORCA-LIM
OPA 8.2
AtmosphereLMDZ4
EMI = external forcing[Marland et al, 2005
Houghton, 2002]
Ocean flux GtC/mthLand flux GtC/mth
CouplerOASIS 2.4
ClimateAtmospheric[CO2]
CO2 concentration
re-calculated each month
∆t = 1day
Carbon
∆t = physic time step
A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model
9
A New Carbon Climate Coupled Model
Climate
Fossil emi.
CO2CO2
Land and Ocean
LOOP03
LOOP02
Geochemical
impact
Climateimpact
Climatefeedback
LOOP01
LOOP03
Highlights CO2 change impact on fluxes
LOOP02
LOOP03
Highlights climate change impact on fluxes
• LOOP01 control, no emissions
• LOOP02 : fully coupled, emissions– Climate aware of CO2 increase
• LOOP03 : decoupled, emissions– Climate agnostic to CO2 increase
fix atmospheric CO2 concentration[CO2] = 286.2 ppm
10
[CO2] is re-calculated each month based on :
• fossil fuel and land-use emissions
• net CO2 fluxes computed by ORCHIDEE (land) and PISCES (ocean)
Simulated CO2 Concentration
LOOP2 vs LOOP3Weaker land and oceanic uptakes in coupled run (LOOP2)
positive feedback :25 ppm in 2084
11
LOOP vs C4MIP models
climate sensitivity
ocean sensitivity to [CO2]
land sensitivity to [CO2] land sensitivity to T°
ocean sensitivity to T°
Climate and Carbon Models Sensitivity
[C4MIP- Friedlingstein et al., 2005]
LOOP is inside C4MIP responses range. But is it a sufficient criterion ?
12
Satellite Data Comparison
13
Carbon Dioxide Concentration
Simulation matches historical data…
Is it enough to be confident in the model projections ?
[CDIAC, 2005]
Confront results to observationsI. Budgets
II. Seasonal Cycle
III. IAV
IV. Long term trends
Outline
15
Mean Budget 80's
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
land use
fossil fuel
land sink
ocean sink
GtC/yr
LeQuéré
IPCC
LOOP
Houghton
De Fries
Mean Budget 90's
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
land use
fossil fuel
land sink
ocean sink
GtC/yr
LeQuéré
IPCC
LOOP
Houghton
De Fries
Atmospheric carbon variation
Land use fossil fuel land ocean
Global Budgets : 80s and 90s
- 2,8 GtC/yr - 2,6 GtC/yr
- 1.8 GtC/yr - 2,2 GtC/yr
Good agreement between LOOP and IPCC
16
-3 -2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0
GtC/yr
Global
90N-30N
30N-30S
30S-90S
Lat
itu
de
Land Mean1988 - 2003
TRANSCOM
LOOP
-2,5 -2 -1,5 -1 -0,5 0 0,5 1
GtC/yr
Global
90N-30N
30N-30S
30S-90S
Lat
itud
e
Ocean Mean1988 - 2003
Takahashi (+rivers) 1995
Takahashi 1995
TRANSCOM
LOOP
Regional Budgets : 1988-2003
Need to confront modelsresults to inversions data
Over-estimation in thetropical region for thecontinental biosphere
17
Regional Breakdown1988 - 2003
-1
-0.9
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
N. America Eurasia N. Atlantic N. Pacific
GtC
/yr LOOP
TRANSCOM
Takahashi 1995
Regional Breakdown : 1988-2003N. Atl and N. Pacshould be different
[Baker et al., 2005]
22 emission regions and78 CO2 measurements
locations
18
Model
Seasonal Cycle at Mauna Loa
A realistic seasonal cycleat a CO2 measurement location
Obs.
19
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
GtC/yr
Global
Lat
itu
de
Land IAV (1988 - 2003)Standard Deviation
TRANSCOM
LOOP
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
GtC/yr
GlobalL
atit
ud
e
Ocean IAV (1988-2003)Standard Deviation
TRANSCOM
LOOP
Inter-Annual Variability of CO2 Fluxes
Global and ocean inter-annual variability [PgC yr-1] from xIAV
Over estimation of IAV in LandUnder estimation of IAV in Ocean
[Baker et al., 2005]
20
Long Term Trends : The Ocean
118 ± 19 PgC (1800-1994)
LOOP
96.5 PgC (1860-1995)
Atla
ntic
Pac
ific
CO2 Anthropogenic micromol/kg
GLODAP
[GLODAP, Sabine et al., 2004]
21
Continental biosphere and oceans sinks are influenced by CO2 increase and by climate change.
• Obvious need to model Carbon Cycle- Climate interactions.
• Wide range of possible response drives the need for a better understanding of involved processes.
• Observations and inversions both at global and breakdown region scale constitute the best common reference
22
Short and Medium Term Perspectives
• LOOP to be integrated in the next IPCC report
• Planned article in Tellus (due date end of Nov.) following ICDC7
• Technical note on MODIPSL et LOOP to be written
• Transport :
– LMDZ4 : LMDZ4_V2 tag + transport enabling modifications
– OASIS 3 : asynchronous coupling frequency
– INCA : currently only used for the CO2 transport + …
• Fires : foreseen integration of the regfire model (K. Thonicke)
• Dynamic ecosystems study
– OCEAN (Laurent)
– LAND (Nathalie)
• …
Thank You !
With the contribution of Rachid BENSHILA, Patrick BROCKMANN, Philippe BOUSQUET, Arnaud
CAUBEL, Sébastien DENVIL, Jean-Louis DUFRESNE, Laurent FAIRHEAD, Marie-Angèle FILIBERTI, Philippe PEYLIN, Peter RAYNER,
Backup
26
[Krinner, 2005]
TerrestrialBiosphereModel : ORCHIDEE
27
[Aumont, 2001; Aumont 2003]
PO43-
Diatoms
MicroZoo
P.O.M
D.O.M
Si
IronNano-phyto
Meso Zoo
NO3-
NH4+
Small Ones Big Ones
Marine biology is highly influenced by the ocean dynamicmotivating the need of both PISCES and OPA
Oceanic Biogeochemical Model PISCES