PUBLIC OPINION

THE BASICS

Public Opinion- citizens attitudes about political issues, leaders, institutions, and events.

Values (or beliefs)- the basic principles that shape a person’s opinions about political issues and events.

Political ideology- a cohesive set of beliefs that form a general philosophy about the role of government.

Attitude (or opinion)- a specific preference on a specific issue.

COMMON VALUES IN AMERICA Equality of opportunity- all

have the freedom to use whatever talents and wealth they possess to reach their full potential.

Democracy- that public officials should be chosen by majority vote

Liberty- the freedom to express ones views

POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION

Political socialization- the induction of individuals into the political culture; the process of learning the underlying beliefs and values on which the political system is based.

Agents Family Social Groups Education Political Conditions

http://www.gallup.com/poll/14515/teens-stay-true-parents-political-perspectives.aspx

FAMILY

Do you know what your parents’ political beliefs are?

Did your parents ever ask for a vote on where to go to dinner?

Did your parents tell you that everyone should be allowed to express their opinions?

Children are more likely to adopt the political beliefs of their parents than not.

SOCIAL GROUPS

Can be chosen or involuntary Race Gender Occupation Political Party

Political opinions can be rational for individuals when considering their social groups: EX- Farmers are overwhelmingly in favor of farming subsidies

EDUCATION

Governments use public education to try to teach all children a common set of values.

Level of education can be an indication of opinions and participation.

The largest difference is in the amount of political participation. “college graduates vote, write letters to the editor, join campaigns, take part in protests, and generally make their voices heard.”

POLITICAL CONDITIONS

Great or poor conditions in a country can color the political beliefs and identifications of citizens Ex: Those who grew up during the Great

Depression and WWII developed a great loyalty to Roosevelt and the Democratic party.

How has 9/11 impacted political participation and opinion?

REALIGNING ELECTION

Realigning Election- where a segment of the population align themselves with a different party in an election.

Only one true example- FDR’s first election in 1932 when many people left the Republican party because of the Great Depression and aligned themselves with the Democrats

POLITICAL KNOWLEDGE

• 25% of Americans polled could name their two senators

• Political ignorance is a fact of political life given the high cost of political attentiveness. Reading, thinking, participation, social friction, and

pessimism can all be costs of political knowledge

You can always be a free rider Free Rider- Someone who does not

contribute to the greater goodSomeone will make the decision for a free

riderThey might not be happy with it, but the

decision has been made

SHORTCUTS

The trusted other, believe what someone you usually agree with believes (the opposite is also true)

Party affiliation or ideology

WHY THAT ISN’T SO GOOD IN A DEMOCRACY

Issues are often too complex to lend themselves to simple ideological interpretation.

Shortcut takers can become victims in political struggles because they cannot effectively defend their political interests

Large numbers of politically inattentive people means that the political process can be more easily manipulated by the forces that seek to shape public opinion.

HOW POLARIZED IS PUBLIC OPINION?

State results, by land area

County results by land area

State results, by population

County results, by population

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION (BASICS)

Public Opinion Polls- the scientific instruments for measuring public opinion

Sample- a small group selected by researchers to represent the most important characteristics of an entire population

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION (TYPES)

Probability sampling- a method used by pollsters to select a representative sample in which every individual in the population has an equal probability of being selected as a respondent

Random digit dialing- a poll in which respondents are selected at random from a list of ten digit telephone numbers, with every effort made to avoid bias in the construction of the sample

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION (ERRORS) Measurement error- the failure to identify the

true distribution of opinion within a population because of errors such as ambiguous or poorly worded questions

Push Polling- A polling technique in which the questions are designed to shape a respondent’s opinion

Selection bias- a polling error in which the sample is not representative of the population being studied, so that some opinions are over- or underrepresented.

Sampling error- a polling error that arises on account of the small size of the sample

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION (EFFECTS)

Illusion of Salience- The impression conveyed by polls that something is important to the public when it actually is not.

Bandwagon effect- a shift in electoral support to the candidate whom public opinion polls report as the front runner.

Rally round the flag effect- a shift in electoral support to the status quo during a time of war or crisis.

HOW DOES THIS INFLUENCE POLICY?

Individual doorstep opinions vs. aggregate public opinion

Between 1935 and 1979 about 2/3 of all cases significant changes in public opinion were followed within one year by policy changes

Why doesn’t policy always follow opinion The majority may not be intensely committed as

the minority Structure of the government creates a lag time

(ex: supreme court rulings) Party leadership may be slow, or unwilling to

react

SHAPING OPINION

Government Presidents and the Executive branch use polls,

focus groups, planted news stories, and film to try to persuade the public with propaganda.

SHAPING OPINION

Interest Groups Special interests groups may try to shape opinion

because of values or personal interest. Partial Birth Abortion Ban Cheap Handgun Ban Sweatshop campaign

SHAPING OPINION

The Media Can be outlets for the other two Do the scandals that the media uncovers impact

your view of politicians and politics? Priming and Framing We will discuss more of this this in the next notes