PILOTING SCALED-UP CREDITING IN SRI LANKAN POWER SECTOR: UNDERSTANDING CONTRIBUTION OF CREDITING TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF NDC TECHNICAL WORKSHOP ON SCALED-UP CREDITING APPROACHES 31 MAY 2016
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§ Objec(ve:GovtNCREobjec(ve:20%NCREby2020§ CPFProgramobjec(ve:SupportincreaseinNCREpowergenera4on
abovethebaselinethroughcarbonfinance§ Technologiesiden(fied:Renewables(wind,hydro,biomass/dendro,
solar)§ Stakeholders:CeylonElectricityBoard,SriLankaCarbonFund,Min
Power,MinEnvironment,SustainableEnergyAuthority,PublicU4li4esCommission,MinFinance,organizedprivatesector
§ Overalldesign:Sectorcredi4ngschemeforemissionreduc4onsgeneratedabovethebaselineand“owneffort”,dependsonINDCtreatment
§ Financialaspects:Publicorprivatesectorfinanceprojects–largelybasedonstrengthofpowerpurchaseagreementwithCEB,supportedbycommercialbanksandanyotherclimatefinancebecomingavailable
§ Ins(tu(onalcapacity:CEB&SriLankaCarbonfund
Programrecap
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§ Uncondi4onalemissionreduc4ontarget§ emissionreduc4onfromexis4nghydro,Non-Conven4onal
RenewableEnergy(NCRE)andfuturehydrodevelopments§ expectedtobe4.88milliontCO2by2030,a4%reduc4onagainst
the2010baseline.Thistranslatestoacumula4veemissionreduc4onfortheperiodof2015-2030of74.56milliontCO2.
§ Condi4onalEmissionreduc4ontarget
§ throughfutureNCREdevelopments§ amountsto3.33milliontCO2in2030andcumula4vely30.21
milliontCO2fortheperiodof2015-2030.§ emissionreduc4onfromexternalsupportis16%in2030,when
comparedtothelikelydemandin2030followingthereduc4onsofthena4onalcommitment.
SriLankaINDC(forthepowersector)
AT3:MWhequi.toZ%NCRE
YearStartyear(e.g.
2014)Y3
MWh
Y1
AT1:MWhequi.toX%NCRE
BaselineMWh(owneffort=MWhfromexis(ng+newhydroplants)
Addi4onalowneffortifSL
decidestoclaimcondi4onal
targetunderthePA
CreditableMWh
MWhfromexis4ngplants
Y2
AT2:MWhequi.ToY%NCRE
TotalMWhincreased=maximumcreditableMWh
Uncon
di(o
nal
target
Cond
i(on
alta
rget
Credi4ngapproach(anillustra4on)
The actual NCRE generation, when monitored at regular intervals, can be higher, lower or same compared to the aspirational target generation levels. Setting aspirational targets expected to create the necessary momentum within the Government’s long term generation planning and to consider renewable energy as one of the options for ensuring energy security.
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Scenario#1:Countrytransferscreditsanddonotclaimen(re‘condi(onal’targetunderINDC
Figa:ScenariowhereSriLankacanclaimonlyX%asachievingcondi4onalINDCtarget
Figb:ScenariowhereSriLankacanclaimonly(4%+X%)asachievingun-condi4onalINDCtarget
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Scenario#2:Countrytransferscreditsandincreasesitsambi(onfurthertoclaim‘condi(onal’targetunderINDC
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Baseline&abovebaseline(forex-antees4ma4ons)
11.7% 11.7%
14.1% 14.3% 14.0%15.0% 14.9% 15.1% 14.7% 14.3% 13.8%
11.7% 11.7%
14.2%
16.2% 16.0%
19.2% 19.7%20.6% 20.4%
19.7% 19.7%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
2014 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
ShareofNCREoutofTotalGenera4on
Baseline Abovebaseline
Theexpectedcumula4veemissionreduc4onpoten4alduringtheperiod2016–2025isaround5milliontCO2e.