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Defining value
in the Future
Internet
Simon Delaere
IBBT-SMIT, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
FinES Workshop, FIA Aalborg, 9 May 2012
About us
IBBT – Interdisciplinary Institute for Broadband Technology – funded by Flemish government, 1000 researchers in # groups across # Flemish universities
IBBT-SMIT: Founded in 1990, based in Brussels, part of IBBT’s Digital Society Department
Specialising in socio-scientific research on media/ICT
Currently some 60+ researchers
Combination of quantitative and qualitative methods for User research
Policy analysis
Business modelling
2
Main messages
Apples are not pears
It’s not only about numbers
It matters for FI and FinES
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4 15/05/2012
1. Apples are not pears
Context matters
Technological determinism vs interdisciplinary approach
Research is about technology, but technology is void without knowing about How it is regulated
How it may be used/how it is actually used
How value can actually be created
Value is a hetereogeneous concept What is invaluable to one is worthless to the next
What is worthless now may be priceless tomorrow
Value creation and capture is a strategic configuration process
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The context of value - The example of CR
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NO YES Emergence of viable
CR business case?
Cost/complexity of CR
technology
HIGH
LOW
“DO-IT-YOURSELF
WORLD”
Localised “hot-spots”
“POLAR EXPEDITION”
Non-commercial pilots
“BLOSSOMING
GARDENS”
Specialist CR providers
“TYCOONS’
PARTY”
Super-rich telcos’ toy
Level 1
A. Medeisis, S. Delaere (2011). High-Level Scenarios for the Future of Cognitive Radio Business. Paper
presented at PIMRC 2011, 11-14 September 2011, Toronto, Canada
The context of value - The example of CR
7
Level 2
Barrie, Delaere & Ballon. Classification of business scenarios for spectrum sensing.
IEEE 21st International Symposium on Personal Indoor and Mobile Radio Communications (PIMRC) 2010,
Istanbul (T), 26-30 Sept. 2010
The context of value - The example of CR
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Level 3
Co
sts
Potential market growth
Field
deployable
network
UA
V
Rural
broadband
Travel/planning
VoD
Education
Gaming
Utility/grid monitoring Home analytics
Tele-health
Monitoring & drug
delivery
First
responder
Security &
CCTV
VANETs
Mobile
truck &
cash in
transit
Emergency
broadcast
Event management/theme
parks, zoos
Niche, exclusive,
high barriers to entry
Groups,
human-oriented,
management
Government, necessity,
social benefit Consumer, high volume,
Quickly evolving
K. Nolan, V. Gonçalves & M. Sandmann (2011). COST TERRA – WG3 Working Paper: Marlets,
Opportunities, Technologies & Regulation.
The context of value - The example of CR
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Level 4
Tytgat, L., M. Barrie, V. Gonçalves, O. Yaron, I. Moerman, P. Demeester, S. Pollin, P. Ballon, and S. Delaere,
"Techno-economical Viability of Cognitive Solutions for a Factory Scenario", DySPAN, Aachen, Germany, 05/2011
Different BM exercises, different results
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Different BM exercises, different results
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Different BM exercises, different results
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Different BM exercises, different results
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Different BM exercises, different results
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Different BM exercises, different results
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16 15/05/2012
2. It’s not only about the numbers
Of course numbers are important
Quantitative evaluation is necessary Cost-efficient research = cost-efficient technologies
Business Case construction is a crucial step
Many FI technologies promise reduction in CAPEX/OPEX, but what do they deliver?
But it is often too early to ask Infrastructure, element cost, uptake unknown
Competition/complementarity with legacy tech unclear
Macro, meso and micro economic factors
And it is still research Does it make sense to ask detailed, confidential exploitation
plans in a STREP?
Cost and revenue are just two strategic considerations
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Business Models as configuration of control
and value
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The rise of platforms
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Platforms are emerging everywhere…
15/05/2012 20
ISSUER MNO
TSM
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Rising questions Platform dynamics: multi-sided
markets
Dynamic and complex competition processes between large number of platforms or platform wannabes
Importance of technological configurations, interoperability, openness, bundling and adding features
Greater scope for variety of platform and non-platform strategies
Abstract and static conceptions of ‘platforms’ need to be replaced by analysis of changing boundaries of platforms, various levels of integration and control, different types of platform business models
Regulation not equiped for dealing with platorms
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Multiple complementary methods
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BO IO EU DM ASP WNO
BO
IO
EU
DM
ASP
WNO
Actor – Actor Interaction (MAA)
Table 6: Actor-Actor Interaction Matrix (MAA)
BO IO EU DM ASP WNO
BO -2 0 0 -2 0
IO 0 0 0 0 -2
EU 3 1 0 0 0
DM 0 4 2 0 0
ASP 0 4 0 2 -2
WNO 6 0 3 0 0
Table 7: Actor-Actor Interaction Matrix (2MAA)
BO IO EU DM ASP WNO
BO -21 0 -14 -20 0
IO 0 0 0 0 -21
EU 5 5 0 -2 0
DM 0 30 4 0 -14
ASP 0 17 0 11 -20
WNO 38 0 5 0 0
V. INITIAL RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The initial results of using the MACTOR/Matrix framework
are presented in Table 6 and Table 7 in the form of MAA
and 2MAA matrices. On the basis of which, we draw
complete diagrams of convergences and divergences as
shown in the Figure 5. The thickness of the connecting lines
in the graph is proportionate to the number of issues
converged or diverged upon.
Figure 5: First Complete Diagram of Convergences and
Divergences over Objectives
Based on the convergence diagram represented in the
following direct conclusions can be derived:
· There exists a certain degree of synergies among the Infrastructure Owner, 3
rd Party ASP and the
Device Manufacturer because in absence of Network Operators both ASPs and Device Manufacturers can interact freely and directly with the Infrastructure Owner (for revenues and service delivery).
· Synergies between the End Users, the Broadband Operator (BO) and the Wireless Network Operator
(WNO) (as shown in 2MAA) over all the strategic objectives are diluted because of the mediation of the Infrastructure Owner – who interferes with the existing operator-customer relationship by deploying and managing the CONSERN network all by himself.
On the other hand, the Divergence graph shows that the
Network Operators (BO, WNO) and Infrastructure Owner (IO) are in clear divergence with each other: firstly, because of the Operator-Independent strategy employed by the Infrastructure Owner and secondly because of the direct interaction between the Infrastructure Owner and the Device Manufacturer, which in more Operator-Centric models were mediated and managed by the Network Operator. Since we adopt an Operator-Independent strategy, adopting Operator-Centric or 3rd Party-Centric Models can yield entirely different sets of convergences and divergences amongst the actors.
Figure 6: Divergence and Convergence [MAA]
The IO’s role within the network-centric group of
actors: The Infrastructure Owner (IO) which is also the focal actor in an Operator-Independent Business Model of CONSERN deployment will face direct confrontations and disagreements with the network operators (see Figure 6 and Figure 7). In the following we provide a snapshot of foreseeable inter-actor relationships in the CONSERN business ecosystem:
1) IO can directly interact with DMs in order to purchase the legacy and CONSERN enabled devices (previously the Network Operator performed the role of purchasing and pricing).
2) 3rd Party Application Service Providers will find this opportunity beneficial for improving and re-inventing their present value of service offerings and closely collaborate with IOs (previously ASPs were dependent on the operators for service provisioning).
3) IOs can mediate the interaction between the end users and the ASPs both in terms of network and revenue sharing (thereby eliminating the presence of Network Operators)
4) IOs will be more independent and selective in choosing the data-plans and mobile connectivity from WNO and BO, hence the Network Operators will find themselves secluded off the mainstream access to the network as well as the revenues both from end users and ASPs.
Focal Actor – Convergence & Divergence
Ecosystem Convergence & Divergence
WNO – BO: converge and diverge on all issues IO – (WNO+BO): diverge because of Operator Independent Business Model involved. IO-ASP-DM : Strongly converge and support OI BM ASP-(WNO+BM) : ASP diverge and would like to operate independently
24
Casey, T.R., & Töyli, J. Mobile voice diffusion and service competition: A system dynamic
analysis of regulatory policy. Telecommunications Policy (2011), doi:10.1016/j.telpol.2011.07.002
SIMBU – Business Model Simulation
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15/05/2012
3. It matters for FI and FinES
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FI-PPP needs business assessment
Ambitious programmes linking FI underlying infrastructure to concrete application domains
Both generic enablers and resulting applications need to be tested for business impact
IBBT’s role IBBT chairs Exploitation and Business Modelling working
group within FI-PPP (through CONCORD)
Established 22 February 2012
Objectives provide internal (FI-PPP) and external (FP7-CIP) insights into
Future Internet exploitation plans and business models; and,
support the FI-PPP projects’ individual exploitation and business modelling efforts.
First F2F meeting at this moment
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FI-PPP EBM
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First EBM WG White Paper in draft
FI-PPP Technical and Business Architecture FI-PPP Core Platform: Technical and Business Architecture
FI-PPP Use Cases: Technical and Business Architecture
FI-PPP: Unified Business Architecture
Innovative Business Models for FI-PPP Services and Applications FI-PPP Use Case Example(s) and Business Models
The Business Challenges and Opportunities
Lessons Learned and Best Practices from External Cases
Innovative Business Models e.g. X as a Service models; Smart Cities/Region models, SME application stores, etc.
Societal Benefits and Economic Impact of the FI-PPP FI-PPP Core Platform and Domain Usage Areas Benefits and Impact
FI-PPP Market Opportunities
Generic Benefits of the Future Internet
15/05/2012 29
How about the value of enterprise solutions?
Future Internet may open new roads to value for
enterprises, both competing and collaborating
Value can be created by
Infrastructure
Data
Platforms
IBBT is working on all these topics
PPP concept changes very concept of value
15/05/2012 30
Methodologies need adaptation
15/05/2012 31
Wrap-up
Apples are not pears
It’s not only about numbers
It matters for FI and FinES
15/05/2012 32
https://www.linkedin.com/e/fpf/14529507
http://www.twitter.com/minosrex
IBBT-SMIT Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Pleinlaan 9 – 1050 Brussels Belgium
+32 2 629 16 22 t