Pakistan2008

D Ramana

Key topics

• Key Events in 2007-2008• Nazariya-e-Paksitan• FATA War• Baloch Civil War• Pakiban & Terrorist groups• MQM• Historical background and Great Game• Indian Role in Afghanistan• Mumbai Terrorist Attack• PPI

Key Events in 2007-2008• Elections in TSP announced

– Return of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from “exile”• Gen Kiyani appointed Chief of Army Staff

– President Musharraf doff uniform• Killing of Benazir Bhutto• Elections in TSP lead to PPP majority in most of the country

– Geelani sworn as PM• Resignation of Musharraf as President• Election of Zardari as President• Not all ousted Judges restored• Talibanization of FATA continues

– Reverses by TSP Military– US starts air and helicopter attacks in FATA region

• Survival of Karzai Govt in Afghanistan in doubt• Economic Crisis haunts TSP• Election of Obama in USA• Mumbai Terrorist Attack

Nazariya-e-PakistanIdeology of Pakistan

• Slogan first coined by Gen. Sher Ali Khan, Information Minister and former Chief of Staff of Pakistan Army

• "Pakistan ka matlab kya, La ilaha illallah”– What does Pakistan mean, there is no God but God!

• Term was hijacked by Maulana Maududi and his party Jamaat –e-Islami(J-e-I)

• Gen Yahya Khan wanted to crush Benglai Nationalism while JeI included Sindh and Baloch nationalism.

– Gen. Yahya Khan and Maududi came together and ladi foundations for TSPA and Deobandi branch of Islam.

• After 1971 Zulifikar Ali Bhutto was forced to Islamize at frantic pace not to lose space to Islamists.

– The massive defeat in 1971 and the ascendency of J-e-I led to the Army assume role of “Guardian of Islam.”

• Gen Zia coming to power led to consolidating the N-e-P concept through wholesale changes to textbooks and complete rewriting of fabricated history

– Deobandi J-e-I and Salafist Kingdom of Saudi Arabia supported the transformation

N-e-P is an attempt to inculcate among the Pakistani masses the habit of looking at India through the prism of Deobandi variety of Islam

N-e-P continued

• The massive defeat in 1971 and secession of East Pakistan led to a rethink of the idea that Pakistan was the guardian of Islam

• They wanted to assume a more moderate role of “Guardian of Islam” in context of Indian Sub-continent as their existence was under threat at that time and India was the enemy.

• Fears of further secessions of Sind or Balochistan• N-e-P was designed as an alternative to the cry “Islam is

in danger” or “Islam khatre main hain!”• At the very basic level N-e-P is a social re-engineering

similar to Nazi attempts to remake Germany

Indian Perception Pakistan• Two nation theory aka Partition theory

– Hindus and Muslims are two separate nations and need two states.

• Policy with an eye on Indian Muslim population• Ignores the various schisms and factions in

Pakistan– More importantly ignores Pakistani self perception

which is “Not Indian”• Pakistan was never wanted to be equal to India

but superior to India in every which way• When Indians say “they are like us only” it

negates the self image of Pakistanis and hurts

There is nothing that Indians can do to assuage the Pakistani self image at this time

Centrifugal forces in TSP

Baloch Civil War

• First rumblings due to annexation in 1948– Khan of Kalat

• Current Baloch revolt started over revenue sharing from Sui Gas fields

• Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti led the revolt– Killed in Army action

• Still in progress or slow burn

FATA War• NWFP borders

Afghanistan• After 911 the Taliban

from Afghanistan escaped to FATA and WANA regions and regrouped

• Pashtuns in NWFP have joined the Taliban and are creating a new zone of influence

• Pakiban are the Taliban adherents of Pakistani origin

Pakiban• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)• Sunni (salafi/wahhabi/Deobandi) Taliban organization, normally opposed to

Berelvis• Emerged in the FATA areas of NWFP in 2007• About 40 local Taliban leaders announced the formation of TTP on Dec. 14,

2007 to centralize their command.• Amir - Baitullah Mehsud (of South Waziristan), appointed by Mullah Omar• First Naib Amir - Maulana Hafiz Gul Bahadur of North Waziristan.• Second Naib Emir - Faqir Mohammed of Bajaur• Spokesperson - Maulvi Umar• Has a shura (consultative committee) of 40 senior Taliban leaders from the

entire NWFP area (including FATA and Settled Areas)• Aim:To establish an Emirate, to enforce Sharia, to unite against the NATO

forces in Afghanistan and defeat them just as they did against another superpower USSR, and do defensive jihad against the Pakistan Army if it comes in the way.

Rise of Pakiban

Two faces of the problem as seen from US news media perception

Rise of Pakiban

• Its very clear that the border areas/NWFP (which was created by Lord Curzon incidentally) are getting fundamentalized / Talibanised.

• A corridor is being formed with its writ on west bank of Indus.

• Add to that the recent reports of Karachi and Talibanization of Sindh all these are portends of the coming de-facto break up of TSP if not de jure.

Pakiban Civil Wars• The Bangash tribesmen who are massacring the Shi'a are part of the

Karlani group of tribes, one of whose constituents is the Mehsuds as well. The Shi'a stand no chance at all, though they are getting Hazara fighters from Afghanistan.

• Very soon, the Shi'a-Sunni of FATA will engulf Pakistan. – Recent reports speak of SSP (Sipah Saheba-e-Pakistan, the most militant Sunni

organization) becoming very active in Karachi and in return the Shi'a Sipah-e-Muhammed (known by various names such as Tehreek Jaffria Pakistan & Islami Tehreek-e-Pakistan) have become active as well.

• At the same time, another war is also going on in FATA between the Berelvis and the Deobandi/Wahhabi groups.

– The Sunni Tehreek (ST, a member of Al Qaeda's International Islamic Front, IIF) has its hands full against many warlords in FATA. That's the problem for the Taliban and Al Qaeda. They have many warring groups within the fold. Again the Arabic saying: Me against my brothers, me and my brothers against our father, me, my brothers and my father against our cousins . . .

A Pasthun is at peace, when he is at war!

Sarkari Islamist Group

• Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-Mohammedi• Formed in Karachi in February, 2008• Umbrella organization for SSP (Sipah-e-Sahaba-

e-Pakistan, the mother of all terror outfits), LeT, JeM and HM.

• Announced promulgation of Shariah throughout Pakistan.

• Amir: Wajahat alias Sami alias Gulfam alias Mansoor– (Arrested in Karachi mid-2008)

Terrorist Orgs in TSP

• LeJ (Lashkar-e-Jhangvi) Sunni Banned Aug 14, 2001

• SM (Sipah Mohammad) Shia Banned Aug 14, 2001

• LeT (Lashkar-e-Taiba) Sunni Wahhabi Banned by Pakistan in Jan 15, 2002.

• JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed, Army of Mohammed) Banned by Pakistan in Jan 15, 2002.

• HUM (Harkatul Mujahideen) Sunni Deobandi Banned in Nov, 2001

• Al-Badr Mujahideen • HuJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami) • HuT (Hizb-ul-Tahrir, "Freedom

Party") Banned Nov 20, 2003 • TNSM (Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-

Mohammadi) • HMA (Harkat-ul-Mujahideen-al-Aalmi,

meaning HUM, International) • Brigade 313

• Harkat-ul-Ansar(HuA)• Jandullah (Army of Allah) • Jundullah • Sunni Tehrik • Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan (Army of

the Prophet's Companions) • Al-Muhajiroun • Khudamul Furqan Banned • Tanzeem-ul-Ikhwan • Zafar Group • Tariq-e-Nifaz-e-Fiqh-e-Jaafaaria

(TNFJ)

• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Banned

• Lashkar-e-Islam • Tehreek Islami Lashkar-e-

Mohammedi • Islamic Jihad Union (IJU)

MQM• Altaf Hussain formed All Pakistan Mohajir Students

Organization (APMSO) in 1978 in Karachi• Formed Mohajir( Refugee) Quami Movement (MQM) in

1984 in Karachi. Name changed to Muttahida (United) Quami Movement in 1997 to counter allegations of being a refugee interests party.

• Allied with Benazir Bhutto’s PPP in 1988• Crackdown by Pakistan Army in 1992 led to Altaf Hussain’s

exile to London• MQM represents émigrés from all over India who are tied by

language of Urdu and do not form part of the elite ruling groups

• MQM is the Kabila (group) that holds Pakistan together and Karachi is its center

• All others are ethnic groups based on region- Punjabi, Baloch, Sindhi and Pashtun

Historical background

• Ahmed Shah Durrani’s Empire

• British Expansion in Anglo- Punjab Wars

• Great Game concepts– Buffer States for British India

• Modern Great Game – Oil, Energy and Geopolitics

Ahmed Shah Durrani’s Empire

India’s Outer Buffers-Caroe

Caroe’s Seven Power Circles

Great Game aspects of TSP-I

Brezinski’s Grand Chessboard

1948 Situation Map

Modern Great Game

Natoization of Afghanistan

• US invasion of Afghanistan after 9/11

• US needed NATO troops to takeover ISAF while engaged in Iraq

• NATO and US troops under constant attack from Taliban forces sheltered in FATA/ WANA regions of Pakistan

Economic Crisis• Since 9/11 US has provided $10B as aid to Pakistan : CSIS study• Despite all that Pakistan faces an economic crisis due to oil price

rise and collapse of Pakistani rupee• US, China and KSA have refused bilateral aid and prefer multi-

lateral agencies to aid and restructure Pakistani economy• IMF Agrees to $7.6 Billion Loan to Pakistan

Indian Role in Afghanistan

• India always was interested in Afghanistan• Before 9/11 supported Ahmed Shah Masood and his

Northern Alliance• Supported the Hamid Karzai govt with civilian assistance

to rebuild Afghanistan• Reopened the consulates in Jalalabad, Peshawar and

– Indian Embassy building bombed. Most likely ISI supported terrorists

• Built the road from Zaranj to Kabul providing the alternate land route to one controlled by Taliban

• Assistance ~ $1Billion and is the largest amount outside US.

• Stable Afghanistan is a national security interest of India

Western Alternative plans for Pakistan remapping

• Bernard Lewis

• Ralph Peters

• Pashtun - Durand Line

• Pashtunistan Billboard map

Bernard Lewis Plan

• Truncates Pakistan• Splits Pashtun areas and Baluchistan• Keeps Sind and Karachi with Pakjab

Ralph Peters

• Similar to Bernard Lewis Plan

Pashtun Plan-I

• Creates greater Paktunistan including parts of Afghanistan• Keeps Sindh and West Punjab together

New Pashtunistan Billboards

• More realistic as it covers all Pashtun speaking lands• Even Keeps Sindh and Pakjab together• Separates Northern Areas of Afghanistan

Indian Claim in 1947

• Note the border of greater Punjab is East of Indus and includes Bhawalpur• Sindh is separate and removes Karachi from Pakjab

Most Likely

Indian Options For PIP

– Crackdown on terrorism in J&K and SIMI• Reduces the million mutinies inside India

– UN presence in Afghanistan• Provides diplomatic cover for Indian troop presence in

Afghanistan

– Independent command in Iraq w/Iraq invitation• Provides security for rebuilding Iraq and bringing it back to

community of nations• Presence will reduce the operating space for KSA and TSP

in OIC and Sunni states

– Reduction of ISI as its great game tool• Reduce numbers as it coincides with US objectives in

Afghanistan

PIP= Peaceful Implosion of Pakistan

Indian Perspective• The loss of Kandahar by Akbar in 1588 was the death blow of the

Mughals as they were finished in less than 150 years after that.• The frontier areas were allowed to go under Persian influence and led

to the Durranis taking over Afghanistan with severe consequences to mainland India.

• Ranjit Singh created the buffer state and the English got hold of those areas after the Anglo-Sikh Wars. Durand line was created after the Anglo-Afghan wars and formalized the de-facto buffer created due to Ranjit Singh's efforts.

• To support Pashtun recovery of Durand line will bring the frontier back to the outer rim of Indian core lands.

• Pashtuns should be shown to recover their lost lands from the Iranians/Persians. Better yet be satisfied with what they have.

• Another argument is the Sarkari Pashtuns on the eastern side of Durand lines are the tribes that sided with Aurangazeb and being the successor state it is India that should look out for them eventually. Frontier Gandhi's debt has to be repaid. He was let down badly as we didn’t understand nor had the capability to support him in 1947.

Oil Pipelines from Central Asia

US Elections and Pakistan

• 2008 US Elections are a key milestone in US-Pak relations.

• Democrats want to disengage from Iraq and Afghanistan• Obama Transition team has published position that the

road to Afghanistan is through Pakistan which needs a settlement with India on Kashmir– Bruce Reidel, John Podesta Center for American Progress

• Unhelpful as J&K is on its way to normalcy– Will rejuvenate Pak inspired terrorism in J&K – Pak is on its way to disintegration and collapse and throwing

Kashmir into the mix is unhelpful to the people of Kashmir.

Afghanistan in Pak sights• The top priority of US for next two administrations will be

war in Afghanistan– Future of NATO– Containment strategy towards Russia– Grand ideas like unilateralism and war as diplomatic tool

• Pakistan has realized that if it chooses it can make matters worse for the US in Afghanistan– NATO jugular in Pak grip

• TSP troops in border areas keep the Taliban in check at same time keeps the US from retaliating

– 75% of all supplies through TSP– US unwilling and unable to use Russian or Iranian route for

supplies– More SF ops in borderlands is invitation to future disaster

Afghanistan in Pak sights• US experts Reidel etc suggest that one way to win TSP cooperation is to

make India “settle” Kashmir– Five different agencies formulate US policy on Afghanistan

• White House, State dept, Pentagon, Central Command and intelligence

• Durand Line and Pak’s Afghan policy– Eight million Pashtuns straddle the Durand Line– Past Pak leaders have tried to formalize the Durand line– Unless Afghanistan formalizes the Durand Line TSP is in jeopardy– However formalization divides the Pashtuns for ever even after the end of

colonialism– A new Afghan national Army (134K) will be a check on TSP as it will be mostly

Tajik due to demographics. More Tajiks live in Afghanistan then in Tajikistan. Just as more Pashtuns live in TSP than in Afghanistan

• Not clear what is driving the US experts– Aim at keeping India unsettled?– Aim to keep India from pursuing her Central Asian near abroad/– Aim to keep India from joining the SCO powers to control Central Asia heartland?

India needs to watch the situation and be ready to counter any moves

Radicalization of TSP society• If you watch TSP channels one sees that there is a de-facto

separation in the TSP society also. • What I mean for example, there are two cooking channels on GEO

TV both hosted by women- One is a RAPE type but dressed in Indian attire, the other is an Islamist with head covered. So they cater to different segments of the society. The curious thing is they both make Continental dishes!

• And the music shows have two streams- pop and sufi type. So there is a fundamental schism underway in TSP on fundamentalist lines

• Regular news reports of schools, beauty shops closed

Conclusions

• The rise of Pakiban is erasing the Durand line. What we are seeing is the gradual failure of two states- TSP and Afghanistan.

• In Afghanistan elections are slated in 2009. If the Taliban ensure reduced Pashutn participation it will lead to a default Northern Alliance Tajik leadership which will unite all Pashtuns(sarkari and non-sarkari, Ghilzai and Durrani)) under the Taliban black flag.

• So any way one looks at it 2009 is critical year for that area.

Prognosis• A new "northern alliance", with covert material support from Iran and Russia, with

Indian tacit approval & "peaceful" participation on the ground, will likely begin a new & successful "jehad" against US/NATO forces in Afghanistan. In fact, a long term US/NATO presence in Afghanistan is probably the last hope of the Pakis to keep their artificial "country" together.

• But Russian/Iranian supported bleeding of US/NATO forces in Afghanistan will drive them out in a lot less time than the Soviets held out.

• And in the subsequent obvious conflict between opposing Jihads (Taliban from the south and new NA from the north), the Taliban will finally bleed to death, putting Afghanistan squarely in Russian (& Indian) orbit. That should also begin the long delayed unraveling of the artificial construct otherwise known as Paki satan.

• As usual, and contrary to Paki hi expectations, China will intrude minimally in this process.

• What matters is that with retreat from Afghanistan, and also from Iraq (foregone conclusion), US/NATO will find itself in an unusual (for it) defensive mode.

• The consequences for India, while full of cautionary circumstances, will be nothing but fruitful.

Prognosis Continued• The Pakiban and Taliban phenomenon is really an Islamized Pashtun nationalism at its core. If

one maps the areas in Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan it is very obvious that it’s all in the Pashtun areas. As Paul pointed out first that, the Pahstun has grabbed Islamization as a substitute for thwarted and suppressed nationalism.

• This phenomenon is not an isolated one in history. Islam provides politico-religious milieu for suppressed nationalism throughout its history. The first occurrence was the Arab tribes that burst out into the Middle East the first hundred years after advent of Islam. The next one is the Vandals of North Africa who were left out of the Roman Christian mission who became Islamized and swept Spain or Al-Andalus. Then we have the Turks of Central Asia who created the Ottoman Empire and the Sultanates all over Middle East to India in the medieval period.

• An Islamized Pashtun state will at a minimum straddle the Durand line and could have a zone of influence till the west bank of Indus. The Tajiks in Afghanistan will seek to merge with their brethern. and so will the Uzbeks. The Shite Afghans around Herat will have to join Iran for safety.

• However everytime a new Islamic state is established it leads to spillover in its immediate neighborhood and farther if it gets too powerful. Looking at the past it is possible to predict the course of spread of such Islamized nationalism- the neighboring states and regions will get the first impact of the successful wave and it will spend itself in distance and time. So India is in for the long haul. It is possible to deflect the wave Westwards than to absorb it Eastwards for historically the Persians were able to subdue the Afghans as the book "History of the Pathans" by Olaf Caroe shows.

• Karzai and other sarkari Pashtuns will be overwhelmed unless the TSP is taken down massively. I don’t think the West understands this or hopes to use the wave towards India.

Alternate Prognosis• The new elite in Islamabad must realize, that an ideological

necessity no longer exists for the continuance of military rule – They need to let the kabila guards go and allow the society to settle

down and be at peace with itself and its neighbors.• There is also no reason why Balochs, Sindhis and Pashtuns should

not have greater autonomy– Nazariya-e-Pakistan is not realistic– Even during the pre-Mughal era the Turks and Afghans fought each

other • Pakistan must repeal its law declaring Ahmadiyas as non-Muslims,

and give more freedom to Christians and Hindus. • The new elite should envision a new concept of how Pakistan

should look like in future and abandon the “Not India” vision