1.Pakistan A Leaderless Leader in Economic Growth Potential among Emerging MarketsA presentation by Zahid Hussain Khalid forICMR 2013 International Conference on Growth in Emerging Markets November 21-22, 2013

2. The Paper and the Presentations on Emerging MarketsICMR 2011: Emerging Markets Future Theoretical Perceptions and Ground Realities http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/emerging-markets-futureICMR 2012: Emerging Markets Outline of an original plan : Re-invention of education system for national and global good governance, social and economic development http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/re-invention-of-education-systenpdf-presentationICMR 2013: Growth in Emerging Markets Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets http://slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paper 3. Slide Sequence INTRODUCTION: Questioning Pakistans Economic Growth PotentialPositioning Pakistan on the World Economic Growth MapPakistans Real Economic Growth Potential Global Perspective Share of CP Market Growth by Region Timeline for takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills Six Drivers of Change Seven Key Challenges and Actions Global State of Talent projected to 2030 The Value Chain of Talent Importance of Equitable Access and Good Quality Education to Private Sector A Major Concern: Employability A much ignored irony of the Education System Analyzing Potential Return to the Private Sector from Investment in EducationContextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level s and Evaluation Four Cycles of Preparedness Process Custodianship and Governance in Different Context Three Levels of CapacityHow is Pakistan looked at? Countrys National Image Causes and Consequences of the Negative National Image Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of GovernanceThree Immediate Challenges The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin: Reposition PakistanFive Territories on the National Activity Map Why Five Territories on the National Activity Map Social Political Economic Diplomatic MilitaryNational Activity Plan from Civil Societys Perspective Social Activity: Action Political Activity: Action Economic Activity: Action Diplomatic Activity: Action Military Activity: ActionCONCLUSION 4. Introduction Questioning Pakistans Economic Growth Potential 5. 25 Rapid Growth MarketsPakistan is NOT among them! Does it mean that Pakistan Cant be one of them?SOURCE: Growing Beyond: Rapid growth market, Winter Edition - January 2013, Earnst & Young 6. Ten years of massive growth in Asian international expansionPakistan is NOT among these too, because she is engaged on war fronts!Asian companies have invested more than US$2.9 trillion in regional and global expansion in the last 10 year. Even 1% of that investment comes to US$29 billion, instead Pakistan has spent more than US$100 billion on WAT with more than 75% negative return on investment.SOURCE: Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies, Accenture 7. All is not well! Rapid Growth Market Forecast 2013 HIGHEST RISK Turkey, Argentina, India, Egypt, Vietnam, Ghana, Indonesia and South AfricaMEDIUM RISK Poland, Brazil, Czech Republic, Colombia, Chile, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia.LOWEST RISK Thailand, Russia, Korea, Nigeria, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia and QatarHere also Pakistan is NOT entitled to any color code because it has the potential to perform better than all of them! Yes, she can!SOURCE: Earnst & Young Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast October 2013 8. Sharp increase in optimism on the growth prospects 6 Renewing focus on sales and marketing is now the top strategic focus overtaking expansion to new markets1 Strengthened confidence in company performance5Attracting and retaining qualified employees continues to be the top internal concerns4 Consumer demand remains on top of the list of external concerns2Sanguinity about some company-level risksKEY FINDINGS OF THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY3 Willingness to invest more on sales, marketing and R&DFirst Quarter 2013Can Pakistans Corporate Leaders also endorse this optimism as theirs too? Yes, they can ONLY if they keep the country in mind instead of petty personal interests and build national corporate assets instead of family business empires. SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013 9. Heightened optimism in country of operation and at company levels across Asia Optimism at country of operation levelOptimism at company levelDo Pakistans people, their government and corporate leaders have any reason to be optimist? They dont. But they have every reason to be optimist?SOURCE: CFO innovation Asia, Business Outlook Survey, First Quarter 2013 10. Pakistans Real Economic Growth Potential 11. More than one reason to be optimistWhat this slide reflects are Pakistans geographic advantage, demographic strength, highest regional GDP in Asia, and military restraint. Why the question mark after the photographs of the top leaders? You can very well guess the answer because that is the title of this presentation. So, what did Pakistan miss on the global front and why? 12. Global Perspective Share of CP Market Growth by Region Timeline of Takeover by China and India as Global Economic Leaders Code of Professional Proficiency and Ten Future Work Skills Six Drivers of Change Seven Key Corporate Challenges and Actions Global State of Talent Projected to 2030 The Value Chain of Talent Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to Private Sector A Major Concern: Employability The Much Ignored Irony of the System of Education Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in Education 13. Share of world CP market growth, 2012 to 2017, by regionBetween 2012 and 2017, the share of world CP market growth coming from emerging Asia will rise from 29% to 38%. Pakistan has the potential to contribute more than any other country in the region by drawing natural and human resource maps and seriously working on them to make them appear on the world economic map.SOURCE: EY analysis from Euromonitor data, June 2013., Brand New Order Profit or lose Balancing the growth-profit paradox for global consumer products companies and retailers in Asias emerging markets, Earnst & Young, 2013 14. Timeline of takeover by China and India as global economic leadersChina is moving ahead cautiously, Indias claim to third position in global economic leadership is doubted, though not impossible yet, and Pakistan is striving for an externally borrowed breathing space. Will Pakistan be able to even join the race? Yes, Pakistan can by relying on its own natural and human resources governed and managed by responsible political and corporate leaders. 15. Six Drivers of Change 1: Extreme Longevity Increasing global life-spans change the nature of careers and learning2: Rise of smart machines and systems Workplace automation nudges human workers out of rote, repetitive tasks3: Computational world Massive increases in the sensors and processing power make the world a programmable system4: New Media Ecology New communication tools require new media literacies beyond text5: Super-structured organizations Social technologies drive new forms of production and value creation6: Globally connected world Increased global interconnectivity puts diversity and adaptability at the center of organizational structures 70% young Pakistanis have to grow up; familiarize with smart machines and systems; connect with computational world; try to know the architects and understand the reach and impact of new media ecology, found or become part of super-structured organizations and prepare to become active citizens of globally connected world. SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011 16. Code of professional proficiency in futureProficiency depends on observation, probe, understanding, experimenting, concluding, testing, succeeding, packaging, communicating, networking and collaborating.SOURCE: Future Work Skills 2020, Institute for the Future for the University of Phoenix Research Institute 2011 17. Key Corporate Challenges and Actions KEY CHALLENGESDecision-making processes and authority are over-concentrated in global headquartersACTIONSMentoring and coaching programs focused on global leadershipOverseas offices' lack of respect for the leadership authority of headquartersPersonality and leadership assessment for global leadershipLack of clear structure in top leadership roles and processesCultural sensitivity trainingLeadership across functions and geographies lacking alignment on the common goals of the global organizationRegular global videoconferencing or other advanced communicationsGovernance structures are not clearly understood by staff outside of the home countryconnecting talent across the global company into teams or workshopsLack of ability to hold overseas offices accountable for not complying with processes and procedures360-degree feedback for global leadership team membersWeak cross-border collaborationOffering international assignments and global rotation programsPakistanis are capable of accepting the challenges and always found ready to come into action whenever they were assigned the task to do so in the interest of their country. But, instead of country benefitting from their actions the rewards ended up in foreign bank accounts of corrupt political leaders, criminal corporate mafias, bureaucrats and army generals. PEOPLE WANT CHANGE! TO BEGIN WITH FOCUS ON COUNTRYS HIGHLY TALENTED YOUTH SOURCE: Growth Journeys: Helping Asian companies realize the value of their international expansion strategies, Accenture 18. The present global state of talent with the right skills, Projected to 2030The greater availability and demand of talent in Pakistan underlines the need for the development of Pakistans Human Resource Development Maps for educating and preparing them for national and global competencies. SOURCE: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2006), 155./ Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business, Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 19. The Value Chain of TalentThe Value Chain of Talent demands planning for a citizens Seven Stages of Life from early childhood to either entrepreneurship or employment and a post-retirement concern-free life.SOURCE: Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business, Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 20. The Importance of Equitable Access and Good-Quality Education to the Private SectorPROBLEM: Despite increasing demand for talent and rising pool of available workers, employability will appear as a major concern. SOLUTION:Enhance size and quality of talent poolReduce talent acquisition and retention costReduce learning and development costs.SOURCE: Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business, Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 21. The ignored irony of the system of education MONTHLY HHOUSEHOLD BUDGET ALLOCATIONS ON EDUCATIONI CANNOTAFFORD EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES WHERE I LIVE.The present system of education across the globe is evidently producing classes of different levels of employees who rarely move from lower managerial level to higher managerial level and this will be noticed not in the distant but the near future. The most aspect of this ironic situation is the need for understanding the seriousness of the psychological and social dimensions of this issue before its too late.SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013SOURCE: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Demand, Q1 2013 22. Analyzing Potential Returns to the Private Sector from Investment in EducationDoes this yardstick to measure profitability of investment in education: concepts and methods, have a module to evaluate the return on investment to Pakistan or to that matter any other country?Note: This approach employs the full discounting method referred to by as opposed to the Mincerian earnings function commonly used by labor economists. The Profitability Of Investment In Education: Concepts and Methods. SOURCE: Investment in Global Education: A strategic Imperative for Business, Center for Global Education at Brookings, September 2013 23. Contextual Aspects of Governance, Capacity Level and Evaluation Four Cycles of Preparedness Process Custodianship and Governance in Different ContextThree Levels of Capacity 24. Framework for institutional performance evaluationsDo our systems of governance and education meet any of the criteria such as motivation, environment, capacity and performance?SOURCE: Universalia 1985; IDRC 1991; Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011. 25. Process Custodianship and Governance in Different ContextsDoes the government of Pakistan have an Integrated Contextual National Agenda, and a Set of Natural and Human Resource Maps?SOURCE: Mohammad A. Jaljouli, Evaluation Systems as Strategy Management Tools: Building Dubais Institutional Learning Capacity, - Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011. 26. The Three Levels of CapacityDoes the existing system of overall national, provincial and district level political and corporate governance reflect any one of the three levels of capacity except the capacity of individuals to the extent of their personal interest and benefit? NOW, LET US POSITION PAKISTAN ON THE WORLD ECONOMIC MAP OF RAPID-GROWTH ECONOMIESSOURCE: Caroline Heider, A Conceptual Framework for Developing Evaluation Capacities: Building on Good Practice, Influencing Change: Building Evaluation Capacity to Strengthen Governance, The World Bank 2011. 27. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic Map How is Pakistan Looked At? Pakistans National ImageCauses and Consequences of the Negative National Image Who is Responsible: Nine Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance Three Immediate Challenges The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin? Reposition Pakistan 28. Positioning Pakistan on the World Economic MapHow is Pakistan looked at? 29. How is Pakistan looked at?Crime Mafias and Terrorist GroupsLack of National ConsensusCommunication LockNational Image 30. What are the causes and the consequences? ILLITERACY AND IGNORANCE SECTARIANISM ANDUNEMPLOYMENTTERRORISMRELIGIOUS, ETHNIC AND POLITICAL PREJUDICESINJUSTICE AND VIOLATION OF HUMAN RIGHTSWith no plan in hand and no funds available to break this Cycle of Nine Social and Economic EvilsPOVERTYDEPRIVATIONCRIME AND CORRUPTIONPSYCHOLOGICAL STRESSWhat you see here is an Unbreakable Cycle of Nine Social and Economic Evils 31. Who is responsible?CARELESS RULERSPERPETUAL STATE OF UNCERTAINTYECONOMIC STRANGULATION AND SOVEREIGNTY IN DOUBTEXTERNAL RELIANCE FOR BUDGET TARGETSSELF-SERVING PUBLIC SERVANTSThe Dilemma of the worlds most powerful human and natural resource rich country of the Muslim worldINEFFECTIVE DEBT MANAGEMENTSOCIALLY IRRESPONSIBLE CORPORATE CONGLOMERATESPARALYZED LAW ENFORCING AGENCIESINCOMPETENT MONETARY AND FISCAL MANAGERSNine Ignored and Unattended Flaws in the System of Governance by the voters in Pakistan 32. Three Immediate Challenges The First Step: Put the House in Order From Where to Begin Reposition Pakistan 33. Three immediate challengesDis-configured System of GovernanceLack of Consensus andThe Way Out 34. The first step: put the house in orderSTATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESSPolitical 35. From where to begin? Reposition PakistanAn integrated district, provincial and federal Governance Plan based on a set of natural and human resource maps in line with countrys tangible and intangible elements of national power and Strategic National Economic Vision and its alignment with the demands of Globalization for safeguarding national interest and benefitting from resulting gains of keeping pace with Global Economic Growth. 36. Five Territories on the National Activity MapSocial Territory Political Territory Economic Territory Diplomatic Territory Military Territory 37. Five territories on the National Activity Map GeographicMilitaryLocationMilitaryDemographicStrengthMixCIVIL SOCIETY?Political EconomicLeadershipGrowthSTATE OF NATIONAL EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS 38. Social territory on the national activity mapSocial territory is a nucleus around which the other four territories on the national activity map revolve. A family, therefore, is a focal point with reference to social and civil rights and responsibilities. In order to understand its role in national politics national planning needs to focus on an individuals seven stages of life. Each transition of an individuals life from one stage to the other till his death reflects a change in his role, his rights and his responsibilities as member of his family, society and the state. 39. Political territory on the national activity map PARTY MANIFESTOPRESSURES OF GLOBALIZATIONHOW TO REMAIN FOCUSED?EXPECTATIONS OF VOTERSCOALITION CONCERNS AND DAY-TO-DAY DEMANDS AND PRESSURESPolitics has become subservient to an adjustable party agenda on day-to-day basis instead of manifesto focused governance to represent the voters in democratic as well as non-democratic political systems across the globe. It appears that heads of different pillars of the state in Pakistan have decided neither to play nor let the others play. Interestingly, all the parties neither playing nor letting others play have nothing personal at stake. Their future is secured socially, politically and economically. They are not bothered about the future of the country or its more than 180 million unfortunate people. 40. Economic territory on the national activity map EASE OF DOING BUSINESSNO OR NOMINAL TAX REGIMESCAPITAL FLIGHTAVAILABILITY OF CHEAP LABORNO OR MINIMUM REGULATORYINTERVENTIONPakistan is one of the top listed emerging markets economies with higher Regional GDP than the most preferred emerging economies in different continents of the world ( http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/potential-of-investment-in-pakistan-12752206 ). Why Pakistan has failed to take any small or significant advantage of its globally acknowledged pro-investment inflow position on Global Investment Flows Map of the World? The answer is carefully engineered disconfiguration of Pakistans elements of national power with the connivance of the pawns of enemies of Pakistan placed at different management levels in almost every pillar of the state. These allegedly known and unknown pawns in every pillar of the state have perpetuated a state of permanent uncertainty in such a way that nothing in any area of economy can be planned and implemented with foreseeable, dependable or predictable timeline. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistans-independence-day-message-to-government-and-people-of-pakistan 41. Diplomatic territory on the national activity map GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATIONAFGHANISTANCHINA AND SOUTH ASIAPAKISTANIRANMIDDLE EASTDEFENCE CAPABILITYPOLITICAL & CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERSHIP?NATURAL & HUMAN RESOURCESECONOMIC & INVESTMENT POTENTIALIn todays globally and economically interconnected world diplomacy is an art that keeps a country on the safe side economically and militarily in a highly unpredictable world of today. Diplomatic activity, therefore, is the most sensitive of all other activities on the National Activity Map. Diplomacy is not a day-to-day affair. It is considered as the backbone of a countrys National Strategic Vision and Goals. Governments come and go but the National Strategic Vision and Goals do not change with the changes in and around a country. A countrys vigilant leaders always remain fully cognizant of developments in and around borders of their countries.It would not be surprising at all if a student of international affairs described the diplomatic consequences of a war other than military and military actions across the Muslim world in one sentence: The end of the political Muslim world will be prevented only by an unthinkable, unimaginable and unbelievable miracle. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/america-the-great-game-and-the-greater-middle-east-an-undiscussed-perspectiveunveiling-the-birth-of-conspiracy-theories 42. Military territory on the national activity map THEORY OF PREEMPTIONNEED FOR LEGISLATIVE COVERPSY-OPS AND MILITARY WEBCONFUSING MILITARY AND POLITICAL TACTICSMILITARY OPERATION OTHER THAN WAR9/11 is a turning point in the history of diplomacy and military in a sense that the unilateral and multilateral application of the theory of preemptive strike and the concept of military operation other than war in war theaters in almost all continents of the world have exposed the political and military leaders to new challenges. The political leaders have to justify the social, economic and diplomatic consequences of involvement in externally advised or internally planned military action within and outside a country. Similarly, military leaders have to seek parliamentary cover prior to involvement in war against terror in and around a country. Consequently, not only the political and military leaders are under tremendous pressures to justify their actions and the impact of those actions on five territories of National Activity Map. http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/malala-mishap-and-global-media-scenario-in-retrospect-taliban-and-pakistan and http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/the-weaknesses-of-the-muslims 43. National Action Plan from Civil Societys PerspectiveSocial Territory: Action Political Territory: Action Economic Territory: Action Diplomatic Territory: Action Military Territory: Action 44. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil societys perspective SOCIAL ACTIVITY: ACTIONIn order to make its voice heard, the civil society needs to get organized, create public pressure groups, personal security and social response platforms and pick up their politically uninfluenced and unbiased civil society leaders.POLITICAL ACTIVITY: ACTION Civil society needs to come up with its own selection process and create platforms for the nomination of candidates for national and provincial assemblies and the senate. The right of selecting a candidate must be taken back from the political party leaders. Civil Society has to develop a mechanism for the investigation of public complaints against the office holders of the four pillars of the state and take the culprits to courts and judicial council no matter how highly placed and important they are and see that the justice is done. Presently ongoing superior court proceedings in NRO and other cases have established beyond any doubt that the constitution of Pakistan is seriously flawed and evidently provides shameful cover to criminals once they are elected. These flaws need to be pointed out by the civil society for immediate review and appropriate correction. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ACTION The government of Pakistan does not have a National Economic Vision, Natural and Human Resource Potential and Performance Map and rationalized Public Administration Expenditure Manuel. The bureaucracy does not have a Public Service Code of Conduct that binds it to remain open and available to ideas and projects of national importance. Presidential immunity is used by section officers and federal secretaries for hiding incompetence, negligence, indifference and corruption at every level of state management operation. Civil Society has to create platforms for addressing the highlighted state management loopholes. 45. Highlights of the National Action Plan from civil societys perspective DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY: ACTION Pakistans ideal geographical location makes it one of the most fortunate countries in the world but the situation in and around Pakistan has made it the most unfortunate and rightly or wrongly the most ridiculed piece of land. How to reverse this situation to Pakistans advantage. The key for that is the proper evaluation of Pakistans tangible and intangible elements of national power and their reconfiguration for proper positioning and utilization of countrys ideal geographical location, its rich natural and human resources, its incomparably unique economic and investment potential, its one of the finest armed forces in the world.MILITARY ACTIVITY: ACTION It will not be inappropriate and out of place to blame Pakistans military commanders for the overall mess Pakistan is in. So far Pakistans military commanders have repeatedly jumped in to put the countrys democracy back on track but always gifted Pakistanis a much bigger mess before they left. Now instead of trying another way out in an old manner it will be advisable to use the civil society giving them military cover in getting their right to self-govern back to them in its true sense. How that can be done? That can be done only by mobilizing Influence Groups in every walk of life through Specific Self-Governance Tasks within a given timeline. 46. The Way OutSOCIAL MILITARYPOLITICAL NATIONAL ACTIVITY PUZZLEDIPLOMATICECONOMIC NATIONAL EMERGENCY PLANCreation and integration of territories on National Activity Map When those who are given the mandate to govern make the country ungovernable then the only way out for the civil society is to lead the way to show the leaders that those who are mislead can lead too when the time comes. It is far more important to self-govern than handing over the right to govern to those who cannot see beyond their nose. 47. Growth in Emerging Markets: Pakistan, a leaderless leader in economic growth potential among emerging markets http://www.slideshare.net/19540201/pakistan-a-leaderless-leader-in-economic-growth-potential-among-emerging-markets-paperTHE PAPERREADING LIST 48. Some more reading material 49. Some more reading material