Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

DR. ARNDT MICHAEL

INTERNATIONAL FORUM OF PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES (IFPU) SUMMER SCHOOL

"MANAGING AN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS"

JULY 5-10 AT CERIUM, THE UNIVERSITY OF MONTREAL’S CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

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Arndt Michael - Pakistan and Regional Security

Structure of Presentation

1. A (very) brief history of Pakistan2. Pakistan today3. Determinants of Pakistan’s Security

Conception 4. Pakistan‘s Foreign Policy in the region

1. Afghanistan2. China 3. India4. The South Asian Association for Regional

Cooperation

5. Summary and „policy recommendations“

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Objective of Presentation

Identify key foreign and security policy strategies

Assess Pakistan‘s security interests in the greater regional context (Afghanistan, India and China)

Possibly predict Pakistani policy behaviour in an international crisis

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Pakistan 4


Pakistan – Major ethnic groups


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1) Very Brief History of Pakistan

August 14, 1947 - Pakistan founded (West & East Wing)

1947 - 1st India-Pakistan War 1965 - 2nd India-Pakistan War 1971 - 3rd India-Pakistan War

1971 – East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh Constituted appr. 50% of Pakistani territory

May 1998: Pakistan becomes nuclear power (a process already begun in 1972) 1999: Kargil war between India and Pakistan 1999: General Pervez Musharraf takes over as „Chief Executive“ (4th Military Coup),

later president

2001: Pakistan becomes major US-ally in fight against terror

Since February 2008: President: Asif Ali Zardari Prime Minister: Shaukat Aziz Foreign Minister: Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi

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1) Very Brief History of Pakistan cont.

Since 1947, Pakistan has followed a cycle of military intervention military government military misrule return to civilian government civilian floundering and: renewed intervention

Summary: Bureaucrats / unelected politicians: 11 years in power Army: 34 years in power (4 military coups) Elected representatives: 15 years in power

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2) Pakistan today

Domestic Conflict Lines:1. Inter-confessional and supra-regional

violence (Sunni - Shiites extremists, other religious minorities)

2. Latent situation of civil war in Karachi (economic center, Sindh –Mohajir - Pashtun)

3. Baluchistan uprisings and revolts (deep sea port of Gwadar; gas and oil)

4. Terrorism and civil war in the North West Frontier Province, bordering Afghanistan

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2) Pakistan today

The crisis state Political crisis Economic crisis Social crisis Educational crisis

The global conflict state Terrorism Conflict region: Iran-Afghanistan-Kashmir (USA: „AfPak“)

High concentration of different (violence) actors (state and non-state) with repercussions for regional security State actors: Pakistan; USA Domestic actors: Police; paramilitary groups External actors: Military; intelligence services „Private“ actors: Jihadists; Taliban, local mafia

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2) Pakistan today cont.


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HDI: The United Nations Human Development Report for 2007-08 estimates that almost 33 percent of Pakistanis live in poverty.


Oligarchic system (establishment)

Major Pakistani political and social forces: The triad Military (plus Inter Services Intelligence, ISI) Bureaucracy (Civil Service of Pakistan, CSS) Feudal landlords and the „families“ (22)

Also important: US ambassador as “unofficial” player

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The Role of the Military

Centre of dysfunctionality: dominance of army (supported by various US administrations)

Approximately 650,000 personnel are on active duty in the military - the world's 6th largest armed force as of 2010

Combined with the 302,000 strong paramilitary forces and 528,000 in reserve, the Pakistani military has a total size of over 1,000,000 personnel

No conscription

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General Headquarters (GHQ) located in Rawalpindi

Veto position / monopoly on: Nuclear and rocket program; arms procurement; Kashmir question Possible changes because of new government

Most powerful corporative actor of the country

Chief of the Army Staff (COAS): responsible for nuclear programme, procurement, military strategy, operative planning comprehensive competence in security policy guidelines

Director-General of ISI: reports to prime minister, but assigned to COAS

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The Role of the ISI

The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (also Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI) is the largest intelligence service in Pakistan

It is one of the three main branches of Pakistan's intelligence agencies

Involvement in major conflictsConflicting statements as to its role and

engagement

The Role of the ISI(2010) A new report by the London School of

Economics (LSE) claimed to provide the most concrete evidence yet that the ISI is providing funding, training and sanctuary to the Taliban insurgency on a scale much larger than previously thought.

The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan and concluded that Pakistan's relationship with the insurgents ran far deeper than previously realised.

Some of those interviewed suggested that the organization even attended meetings of the Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/10302946.stm

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3)Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception

Major Phases of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy1947-52: Exploration and Foundations of Foreign

Policy1953-62: Alignment with West

SEATO CENTO

1962-71: Transition Creation of Bangladesh 1971

1972-79: Bilateralism and Non-Alignment1980-1990: Afghanistan and Partnership with USA1990-2001: Post Cold War-Era and Nuclear Power2001: Counter Terrorism


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3)Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception

Pakistan: special case of inseparable connection between internal and external security

International actors in the region: Presence of international troops (ISAF, NATO) in

Afghanistan Air strikes by means of predator drones of CIA and US

Air force

Frontiers: Contentious Durand line with Afghanistan (1863, divides

ethnic and linguistic people) Kashmir region

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3) Determinants of Pakistan‘s Security Conception

Four major determinants of Pakistan‘s security conception:

1) The India-Pakistan Relationship Secular India vs. Pakistan, home of Muslim Five wars between India and Pakistan Pakistan: „non-state actors“: Jihadists, trained by

Pakistan ISI and army (privatization of war) and Extremist Islamists (Sunni) – today Pakistani Taliban

IndPak as one field of operation for local terror groups

Fear of Indian/Russian encirclement

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2) The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship: 1862 Durand Line – separated British India from

Afghanistan in the West Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as inner

frontier to the East Both went through Pashtun territory Afghanistan providing „strategic depth“

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„Actors“: Kashmiri Jihadis Pakistani Jihadis Afghani Mujadehin (Taliban)

Fluent borders and separations „AfPakInd“ – since the end of Taliban regime in

Kabul, center of operation has shifted to the FATA

The „rulers“ in Kabul and Peshawar (capital of NWFP) directly impact on Pakistani inner and outer security

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3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception

3) Status claim: Pakistan as a regional power (self-perception; role theory: ego – alter)

Particular defence and alliance policy: China as counter weight to contain India

Current projects with Chinese support reflect this: Deep sea harbour Gwadar in the South Karakorum Highway in the North

Current alliance with USA (past experiences)

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3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception

4) Particular ethical, moral and religious orientation of Pakistani security policy Anti-imperialism of independence movement Non-alignment movement (NAM) Ideological function: Islamic Umma (Muslim World),

translated into socially accepted foreign policy, in turn helpful in security political „privatization“ of Kashmir and Afghanistan policy

Economic function: close relations with Saudi Arabia (<-> cheap oil import, but indirect domestic influence in terms of madrassas etc.)

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4) Pakistan Foreign Policy in the region

1. Afghanistan (Afpak)2. China3. India and Kashmir4. Regional Cooperation

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Durand Line: Durand Line: North West Frontier Province (NWFP)North West Frontier Province (NWFP)


Region took a new shape when the Durand Line was established in 1893 by the British.

Border line has separated the Pashtun and Baluch tribes.

Today, fighting is taking place there between militants and Afghan/Pakistani military, backed by NATO forces.

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4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan

Pakistan: Major ethnic groups25



Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of using its intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), in aiding the Taliban militants.

Pakistan has denied the allegations, but has said it does not have full control of the actions of the ISI.

Relations became even more strained as the United States supports an Afghan invasion of tribal regions.

US President Obama: announced „Afpak“ Strategy, 2009

Territorial borders of Afpak: Iran, three central Asian states, China, India and

Indian Ocean

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Pakistani strategists argument: Afghanistan could provide "strategic depth“ in the event of a war with neighboring India.

Should the Indian Army cross into Pakistan, the Pakistan Army could temporarily locate supplies in Afghanistan and prepare for a counter-offensive.

At various times, Pakistan backed the mujahedeen against the Soviets, mujahedeen against each other and the Taliban against the Northern Alliance.

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On June 15, 2008, the Afghan government issued a statement threatening to send its army across the Durand Line in pursuit of rebels stationed along the mountainous border inside Pakistan.

The statement caused considerable damage to bilateral relations and was rebuked by Pakistani officials as inappropriate.

The United States, however, has stated it does support a temporary Afghan invasion of tribal areas in Pakistan if the Pakistani army is incapable of doing so.


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4.2) Pakistan - China

Chinese president Hu Jintao: the relationship between Pakistan and China is "higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans".

Favorable relations with China have been a major pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy.

China strongly supported Pakistan's opposition to the Soviet Union’s involvement in Afghanistan and is perceived by Pakistan as a regional counterweight to India.

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China and Pakistan also share very close military relations, with China supplying a range of modern armaments to the Pakistani defence forces.

China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while Pakistan supports China on the issues of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan.

Strategically, China is used to balance against India.


Free trade agreement China-PakistanLately, military cooperation has deepened with

joint projects, producing armaments ranging from fighter jets to guided missile frigates.

Substantial investment from China in Pakistani infrastructural expansion, including the Pakistani deep sea port in Gwadar.

Pakistan serves as China's main bridge to Muslim countries.

Pakistan had earlier played a leading role in bridging the communication gap between China and the West, through Henry Kissinger's secret visit before the 1972 Nixon visit to China.

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4.3) Pakistan and India

India as defining element in Pakistan‘s foreign policy

Psychological cold war between the countriesTrade takes place via Dubai

Pakistan alleges Indian support for the insurgency in Baluchistan (resource rich) and Indian funding for a 135-mile road connecting the Nimroz province (Afghanistan) with the Iranian port of Chabahar

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Recent crises between India and Pakistan with international repercussions: Nuclearization in 1998 (70-90 warheads) Kargil War in 1999 Terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir, e.g. attack on

State Assembly, 1 October, 2001 Attacks on Indian parliament, 13 December, 2001 Mumbai attacks, 26 November, 2008 (173 dead)

The Kashmir conflict: Line of Control:

separates Azad Kashmir and Jammu & Kashmir

Wars in 1947 and 1965, limited conflict in 1999

Large number of military personnel stationed at LoC



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World Press Photo 2009:Riots in Srinagar, Kashmir

Official text: A man cradles a stone during a pro-separatist demonstration in Srinagar, India-administered Kashmir, on 23 January. Kashmir, which is over 60 percent Muslim, has been disputed by India and Pakistan since the partition of the subcontinent in 1947 and is currently split between them. Since 1989, there has been a growing Muslim separatist movement against Indian control. Pro-separatist rallies in India-administered Kashmir are common.

People in the News: 1st prize singles, Michele Borzoni, Italy, TerraProject

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Attempts at institutionalization of dialogue Composite Dialogue Confidence Building Measures (CBMs): high-level talks,

easing visa restrictions, restarting cricket matches

Fear of Indian and Russian encirclement

US-Indian nuclear deal (United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act) October 2008: Regarded as part of a strategic alliance against Pakistan


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Current developments - BBC News, Thursday, June 2010

India and Pakistan pledge better relations Senior Indian and Pakistani diplomats who have met in Islamabad

have pledged to continue efforts to improve mutual relations and restore confidence.

India's foreign secretary Nirupama Rao met her Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir to decide the agenda for ministerial talks next month.

Peace talks were put on hold after the Mumbai attacks of 2008, which India blamed on the Pakistan-based militants.

In February, the foreign secretaries held their first formal talks in Delhi.

Before that India had regularly rebuffed Pakistani calls to resume a substantive dialogue, saying Islamabad had not done enough to tackle militants or bring the Mumbai attacks organisers to justice.

Talks between Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna and and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood Qureshi [will take place] in Islamabad on 15 July.



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The future of Indo-Pak relations?The Observer, Sunday 11 April 2010:

Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik give India and Pakistan a new reason to squabble

When Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik – an Indian tennis star and Pakistan's cricket hero – fell in love, it offended Hindu sensibilities and bolstered Muslim pride

Founded in 1985Membership includes 8

countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan,

Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka. Since April 2007, Afghanistan

No bilateral or contentious issues to be discussed

Achievements: forum for talks between India and Pakistan; face to face contacts

4.4) The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)


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5) Summary

Pakistan‘s strategic location Afghanistan Iran Central Asia

Factors influencing Pakistan and regional security Domestic: Military rule vis-a-vis civilian government Communalism, sectarianism and separatism Terrorism (especially vis-a-vis Afghanistan and Kashmir) Pakistan‘s self-perception and status as nuclear power

China: Pakistan‘s major strategic ally

Scepticism about American reliability because of past experiences

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5) Summary cont.

Factors to consider for Pakistan policy behaviour National security state Matrix of geopolitics, alliance and strategy Indian antagonism as defining factor China link Key players in government and society (triad) Previous policy Current economic and social problems Regional cooperation: SAARC?

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Further Links

South Asia Terrorism Portal: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/ind

ex.htm

Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies:http://san-pips.com/

History of Pakistan:http://www.storyofpakistan.com/

South Asia Confidence Building Measures (CBM) – Timeline 1988 – Present

http://www.stimson.org/?SN=SA20060207948

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Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

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