Document the Mediterranean climate and hydroclimate over the Holocene - i.e. trends, variability, extremes (floods, storms, droughts…)

Climate impact on the vegetation, versus human impact (ex: landscape transformation since the mid-Holocene,…).

• Targeted periods:

– Historical (1000-2000 years) - LIA, MCA, RWP…

– Longer time-scales (10,000 years) - sensitivity experiments during key periods (i.e. 8200 y event, sapropel 1 (9000-7500 yrs A)….)

• to provide an integrated model of the evolution of human societies in response to climate change

• Comparison of model simulations to paleo proxy reconstructions and archeological data.

• Strongly multidisciplinary : historians, archeologists, geomorphologists, paleoclimatologists, paleoceanographers, statisticians, modelers,…

PaleoMex

Climate-Environment-Human societies

Sicre M.-A. (LSCE, France) & N. Dalfes (ITU,Turkey)

speleothems

Ice

Lacustrine

sediments Pollen

sequences

Archeological data

Marine sediments

Multi-proxy et multi- archive approach

Documentary archives

Tree-rings

corals

Néolithization

Green Sahara

PALEOMEX Speleo-dendro ISOMEX network

Isotopic network

v

v

v

Already existing contacts

18OP of paleo-Mediterranean

rainfall using 3 archives (LSCE) -last millennium

H2O- REM-iso Model- Atmospheric

circulationCo-PIs: D. Genty, V. Daux & U. von Grafenstein

Tree ringOstracod calcite

Speleothem calcite

HOTMED - Holocene Trajectories of Mediterranean Ecosystems DynamicInternational collaborations : university of Athens, Besançon, Berne, Birmingham, Kiel, Lyon, Madrid, Murcia, Plymouth.

HoTMED will use lake sediments to detect droughts (changes lake levels, microcharcoals and

pollens):

1) seasonality and climatic gradients - hydrological index which is a crucial parameter for vegetation, fire

regime as well as societies development.

2) human land-uses and its role in landscape constructions since the apparition of agriculture, with

specific attention on vegetation-impact and fire activities,

The studied sites have been chosen along a west-east Mediterranean transect including lakes in

Spain, Algeria, Italy, Greece, Turkey and Syria

M. Magny

WEATHER - Western mediterranean Extreme floods and storms during the last milleniA :

impacT on Human societies and EnviRonment.

OBJECTIFS

The WEATHER project focuses on the

western Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco,

Tunisia, France). This area is particularly

sensitive in terms of societal issues for the

risks of floods (the Mediterranean Heavy

Precipitating Events) and the risk of coastal

erosion/submersion during storm events.

Throughout a simultaneous model/data

approach we intend to (i) identify the extreme

events (floods and storms) that have

impacted on the western Mediterranean

environment and human societies during the

last millennium and evaluate their frequency

(ii) connect these events with the past and

recent climate variability trends (iii) highlight

the links between extreme events and

Mediterranean population vulnerability using

historical data (iv) confront our reconstructed

climatic series to simulations of coupled

climatic models (ARPEGE-NEMO, IPSL).

Laurent Dezileau & Nathalie Nebout

coring

Linking paleo-

storms and

floods

reconstructions

to documentary

archives

WEATHER - Western mediterranean Extreme floods and storms during the last milleniA :

impacT on Human societies and EnviRonment. -

Plans for 2011The Nador lagoon (Morocco, study site 1)The Nador lagoon is the second lagoon complex of northern Africa

(115 km2). It is, the broadest paralic environment of Morocco and the only

one located along the Mediterranean coast of this countryThe external

hydrodynamics of this coastal area depends on the tidal regime, the littoral

drift currents, and the prevailing waves. The tidal regime of this

Mediterranean region is microtidal and semidiurnal, increasing toward the

eastern and reaching 0.35 m near the lagoon inlet. The study site is

located along the northwestern-facing shoreline, and is extremely

vulnerable to intense storms coming from north and northwest.

The Mar Menor lagoon (Spain, study site 2)The Mar Menor is a hypersaline coastal lagoon of 135 Km2 km2 in surface

area, located at the SE of the Iberian Peninsula. The mean depth is 3 to 4

m, and the maximum depth is over 6 m. Such characteristics made the

Mare Menor one of the bigger coastal lagoons from Europe and the

Mediterranean. A 22 km long sandy bar, called La Manga with 22 km of

long, acts as a barrier between the lagoon and the Mediterranean Sea.

The wind is the main factor influencing sediment transport in this area.

Prevailing winds in the area are from the East eastcomponent. The study

site is located along the eastern-facing shoreline, and is extremely

vulnerable to intense storms coming from east.

The Palavasian lagoonal system (France,

study site 3).Palavasian lagoons are located in the northwestern part of the occidental

western Mediterranean Sea (Fig. 1). These hypersaline backbarrier

lagoons are separated from the Mediterranean Sea by a wave-produced,

sandy barrier 150 m wide and 2–3 m above the mean sea level. These

lagoons have a flat bottom with a maximum water depth of approximately 1

m. Modern sediments accumulating at the bottom of this lagoon is are

clay/silt and no sand. Tidal variability is modest (mean range 0.30 m),

which minimizes the influence of dynamic tidal currents. The study site is

located along the southeastern-facing shoreline, and is extremely

vulnerable to intense storms coming from south and southeast.

The Bibane lagoon (Tunisia, Study site 4)The Bibane lagoon, with an area of 230 km2 and average depth of 4 m, is

connected to the sea by a 400 m-wide channel. The proportion of the

inland waters th a t feed iting the lagoon is intermittently is small in relation

to its evaporation and exchanges with the sea through the channel which

that maintains its salinity between 40 and 50.

ARCHEOMED - région Balkan – Egée -

Les interactions Sociétés-Environnement depuis le Néolithique

de la Mer Noire à l’AdriatiqueCoord. L. Carozza et L. Lespez

2. espace du début de la métallurgie et du

développement des riches cultures du Chalcolithique

(Néolithique final) puis leur effondrement brutal des bords

de la mer Noire aux rives de l’Egée

3. développement des cités-états au cours de l’âge du

Bronze qui entraîne des transformations sociales majeures4. puis un millénaire plus tard la colonisation grecque

K. Pavlopoulos, Greece

Les Balkans : principale courroie de transmission des changements sociétaux

majeurs intervenus au cours des 12 derniers millénaires dans le « système méditerranée ».

1. lieu ou débute la néolithisation de l’Europe

Initial phase: field study sites in 2011

Modeling Issues

• What we would like to model?– From the eddies to ancient villages?

– ‘Synchronous’ vs. ‘asynchronous’ coupling?

• How to make the ends meet?– Model – data intercomparison frameworks

– Where to place the intercomparison interface?

• How to organize data (and knowledge)?– Can it be standardized?

– Metadata modeling/management…

Modeling the Earth System

• Timescale of interest:– The Holocene

– Mid/Late Holocene

– Last few millennia

• The two approaches:– Snapshots (à la PMIP)

– Transient (i.e. ‘continuous’) simulations (with EMICs)

• Trends + events

Data-model comparisons

• Where to put the ‘boundary’

– Modeling the observables (= proxy)

– Including systems/processes leaving recorded tracks

• Multi proxy/data stream approaches

• Casting the comparison as a ‘data assimilation’ problem…

ClimateSystem

EcosystemsEcosystems

SocietiesSocieties

Forcing 1Forcing 1

Forcing 4Forcing 4

Forcing 2Forcing 2

Forcing 3Forcing 3

Integrated modeling…

Integrated Modeling…

• ‘Climate’ components are in ‘better shapes’– 50+ years of model development– CESM, IPSL, HadCM3, CNRM, ECHAM5, …

• Hydrology– Has to be handled on ‘basin-scale’– Given hi-rez climate input + hi-rez surface properties,

it is feasible…– SWAT, PRMS, …

• Natural ecosystems– PFT-based approach is well established– LPJ, LPJ/GUESS, ORCHIDEE, …

Integrated Modeling…

• Managed ecosystems/agriculture– How to estimate ‘agricultural productivity of the past’– LPJmL, ORCHIDEE+STICS, …– ‘Environmental degradation’ is not a new

phenomenon!

• Geomorphic dynamics/Landscape processes• Societal dynamics

– Agent-based approaches– Structural changes?

• Evolution vs. revolution?• Critical phenomena?

Downscaling:

• Global Earth System Models:– Snapshots: 1° x 1° at best

– Transient runs, i.e. EMICs: ?

• Downscaling:– Dynamical: Regional Climate Models

• RegCM4, WRF, …

• Coupled RCMs: Atmosphere + Seas + Land Biosphere

– Statistical:• Multitude of linear/nonlinear approaches

ClimateSystem

EcosystemsEcosystems

SocietiesSocieties

Forcing 1Forcing 1

Forcing 4Forcing 4

Forcing 2Forcing 2

Forcing 3Forcing 3

Integrated modelingunder data constraints

…

Database 1

Database n

Database 2

Databases…

• Existing:– European Pollen Database– African Pollen Database– The International Tree-Ring Database– TAY (Archaeological Settlements of Turkey)

• Settlements, caves, C14 dates, …

– ???

• A (Mediterranean) metadata portal would be very useful…• Managing model outputs is crucial:

– Dynamical downscaling: RCMs need GCM output!– DARECLIMED [Data Repositories and Computational

Infrastructure for Environmental and Climate Studies in the Eastern Mediterranean] (a FP7 project)

The End!