Panama Papers: The online impact of a global scandal

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Foreword

Today,thepubliceyeisinescapable:nobrandorpublicfigureiseversafefromascandal.Informationcanbeeasily fact-checkedor leaked, andhackshavebecomecommonplace.Oncenewshasbeenreleased,socialmediahasmadeiteasierthanevertoamplifyandaccelerateitsreach.

VisibrainobservesthehundredsofPRcrisesthatroutinelyeruptacrossthewebeveryyear.Manyaresimply one-minute wonders caused by a small mistake, such as a social media faux pas. Whileembarrassingforthebrandorpersonconcerned,thesetypesofcrisistendtohaveonlyveryminorconsequences,fizzlingoutasquicklyastheyappear.However,thenumberoffull-onglobaldisastersis on the rise. These crisis situations, such as the Volkswagen #Dieselgate debacle, can generatemillions of online mentions and press coverage that lasts for weeks or even months, leaving apermanentblotonabrandorperson’sreputation.

Butwhattrulydefinesaglobalcrisis?Thelevelsofengagementandpresscoverageitachieves?Itsgeographicalreach?Orsimplytheamountoftimeitstaysintheheadlinesfor?Andhowmuchofalastingimpactdosuchscandalstrulyhave?

Thisdocumentdiscussestherise,spreadandimpactofonesuchscandal,thenowinfamousPanamaPapers.

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Summary

5 I. THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF #PANAMAPAPERS

9 II. PANAMA PAPERS: A GLOBAL, FAST-MOVING CRISIS 1. A scandal driven by social media 2. Panama Papers in the press 17 III. THE MAIN TARGETS OF #PANAMAPAPERS 1. The most-mentioned: Mauricio Macri 2. The first casualty: Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson 3. David Cameron’s family investments 4. Vladimir Putin’s hidden fortune 5. The source: Mossack Fonseca 27 IV. KEY FINDINGS FROM THE PANAMA PAPERS SO FAR

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Panama Papers: the online impact of a global scandal

It has been called the biggest leak in the history of data journalism. On April 3rd 2016, the pressexplodedwiththenewsthatmillionsofdocumentsfromPanamanianlawfirmMossackFonsecahadbeenleakedtotheGermannewspaperSüddeutscheZeitung,exposingthesecretfinancialdealingsofsomeoftheworld’smostrichandpowerfulpeople.

Thescandalistheresultofyear-longinvestigationbySüddeutscheZeitung,whopartneredwithnewsorganisationsfromaroundtheworldtogettothebottomoftheleak.Over400journalistsfromtheICIJ(InternationalConsortiumofInvestigativeJournalists),TheGuardian,theBBC,LeMonde(France)and LaNación (Argentina) andmanyothersworkedonunravelling the2.6 terabytesof data, 11.5milliondocuments,and214,000shell companiesobtainedfromMossackFonsecadatabases.

Its effectshavebeendevastating, causing scandal on amassive scale thathas affectedpoliticians,majorcorporationsandpublicfiguresalike.ThiscasestudybyVisibrainaimstolookbackonthefirstmoments of crisis to see how it unfolded across the web and in the media, along with the keyindividualswhoweremakingtheheadlines.

METHODOLOGY:

ThePanamaPapersscandalwasanalysedusingVisibrain,anonlinemediamonitoringplatformforbrandimageprotectionandcrisismanagement.VisibraincapturedallonlineactivityaroundPanamaPapers:frompressarticlestotweets,photosandvideo,givingusadetailedviewofitsoverallimpact.

ThetimeframesconcernedinthisstudycoverthePanamaPaperscrisisfromitsbeginning,onApril3rd,toApril8th,unlessdeclaredotherwise.TimesstatedareinGMT.

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The first 24 hours of #PanamaPapers

The#PanamaPaperscrisisbrokeontheeveningofApril3rd,whenSüddeutscheZeitung’sreportwasfirstpublished.

Thefirstmomentsofthecrisisshowjusthowquicklythescandalwentviral.ThetimelineofactivityaroundPanamaPapersshowsthatthenumberofmentionsonlinestartedbuildingataround6pm,explodingfrom6.48pm:

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ThePanamaPaperswereaglobalcrisisfromtheverybeginning.IfwelookatTwitterdataaround6.48pm,wecanseethattheriseinvolumeswascausedbyanincreasingnumberof“teaser”tweetsin amultitude of languages from locations across the globe, such as Süddeutsche Zeitung, thenewspaperbehindthePanamaPapers,andWikileaks:

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SüddeutscheZeitung’sofficialPanamaPaperswebsitewasthefirstnewssitetopublishthestory,anditdidn’ttakelongforittogoviral.Thelinktothesitewassharedforthefirsttimeat6.44pm:

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Just24hoursafterthePanamaPapersweremadepublic,thewebsiteurlhadalreadybeenshared58,019times.

The Panama Papers scandal exploded into the onlinecommunityinspectacularfashion:thefirst24hoursofthecrisisgenerated1,901,209mentions.Bytheendofthefirstweek, that number had risen to an incredible 5,260,582mentions,ascandaloftrulyglobalproportions.

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Panama Papers: a global, fast-moving crisis

1. A SCANDAL DRIVEN BY SOCIAL MEDIA

SocialMediawasakeyfactorinspreadingthePanamaPapersstory,andTwitterplayedaparticularlyimportantrole.NotonlyisTwittertheworld’sfastestmovinginformationnetwork,itishometosomeoftheweb’smostpowerfulinfluencers.VisibraindataforthePanamaPapersclearlyshowsthatonesuchinfluencerwasattheheartofonlineactivityaroundthecrisis:EdwardSnowden.

Theworld-famouswhistleblowerhasbeenthetopinfluencerofthecrisisbyfar,gainingimpressiveamountsofengagementanddrivingconversationsaroundthetopic.

HehasbeenaconstantpresenceonTwittersincetheveryfirstmomentsofthescandal:at6.48pmonApril3rd,justminutesafterSüddeutscheZeitung’sPanamaPaperswebsitewentonline,hepostedthetweetbelow:

Withinjust10minutes,@Snowden’stweethadbeenshared1,404times.

Fromthatpointonward,Snowdenachievedimpressiveimpactwitheverysingletweet:overthefirstweekofthePanamaPapersscandal,hetweetedjust10timesusingthe#PanamaPapershashtag,andhispostswereretweetedatotalof93,742times.

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A comparison of the number of engagements obtained by Snowden compared to thenumberobtainedbythekeymediaorganisationsinvolvedinPanamaPapersclearlyshowsjusthowmuchimpacthehad:

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SüddeutscheZeitung,theBBC,TheGuardianandLeMondeallachievedbetween11,000and15,000retweetseachduringthefirstweekofthecrisis.Inspiteofthefactthattheseaccountshavemillionsoffollowersbetweenthem,theyachievedafarlesserimpact.

SnowdenisstilltweetingregularlyaboutdevelopmentsofthePanamaPapersinvestigation.Hehascertainlygainedadditionalnotoriety fromhis involvement inpropagatingthescandal,gainingover80,000followerssinceApril3rd.

2. PANAMA PAPERS IN THE PRESS

OncethePanamaPaperswerereleasedtheywentviralveryquickly,attractingmassmediacoverageworldwide: 335,948 press articles, news videos and blog posts about the topic were publishedbetweenApril3rdandApril8th.

Thepublicationscamefromallovertheworld:themapbelowshowswhichcountrieswerecreatingthemostonlineactivityaroundthePanamaPapers.Interestingly,thehighestamountofonlinepresscoveragewasgeneratedbytheUnitedStates,oneofthecountriesthathasbeentheleastimpactedbythescandal.

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ArticlesweremostcommonlypublishedinEnglish,Spanish,FrenchandPortuguese.ThegraphbelowdemonstratesjusthowquicklythenumberofpublicationsaroundPanamaPapersgrew:

PresscoveragepeakedsharplyonApril4thasthehugequantitiesofinformationinitiallyreleasedwereprocessed,beforegraduallydroppingdowntomoremoderatelevels.

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

April3rd April4th April5th April6th April7th April8th

Numbe

rofarticles

Date

NumberofPanamaPapersarticlesinthepress

ArticlesinEnglish ArticlesinSpanish ArticlesinFrench ArticlesinPortuguese

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In theEnglish-speakingmedia, themostsharedarticleswereSüddeutscheZeitung’soriginalarticleaboutthePanamaPapers,apiecefromtheICIJ,andavideofromTheGuardian,showingtheIcelandicPrimeMinisterwalkingoutofaninterviewafterbeingquestionedabouthisinvolvementwithMossackFonseca.

ENGLISH

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IntheSpanish-speakingmedia,themost-sharedpublicationsareavideofromLaSexta,andarticlesfromAresteguiNoticiasandProceso:

SPANISH

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In the French-speakingmedia, themost-shared articleswere all from LeMonde, one of the newsorganisationsthatpartneredwithSüddeutscheZeitung:

FRENCH

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Interestingly,twooutofthethreemost-sharedarticlesinPortuguesewerecolumnsandblogposts:

PORTUGUESE

OncethePanamaPapersscandalhadbrokenitwasinconstantevolution:eachdayoftheweekbroughtnewdevelopmentsinthestory.Moreandmorepeoplewerepulledintothescandal, includingcurrentandformerworld leaders.WeusedVisibraintofindoutwhowasthemostheavilytargetedbythepressduringthefirstweekofthescandal,andhowithasimpactedthemsofar.

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The main targets of #PanamaPapers

ThefirstweekofPanamaPaperssetoffscandalafterscandalasthefinancialdealingsofsomeoftheworld’smostpowerfulindividualswererevealed.BylookingatthemostcommonkeywordsusedinonlineactivityaroundPanamaPapers,wecandeterminewhichcasesgotthemostattentionfromthepressandtheonlinecommunity.

1. THE MOST-MENTIONED: MAURICIO MACRI – 271,702 MENTIONS

ThehighestvolumesweregeneratedaroundArgentinianPresidentMauricioMacri.

Inspiteofhavingbasedhispresidentialcampaignonputtingastoptocorruption,Macriwasfoundtohavehadlinkstoanoffshorecompanyinthepast;afactthathehadnoteverdeclared.

His lackof transparencyhadthousandsofpeople floodingtothecapital toprotest,demandinghisresignation.ThemainhashtagsusedintweetsaboutMacriincorrelationwithPanamaPapersspeakfor themselves: #macrioffshore, #macricorrupto, #fueramacri (down with Macri) and#macriimputado(Macriimputed)allstandoutinthecloudbelow.

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Macri weathers the storm

SofarMacrihasrefusedtostepdownoverthePanamaPapersrevelations,inspiteofpublicpressure.Thebusinessmanturnedpoliticianiscertainlyusedtomakingtheheadlines:overthetwoweekspriorto the Panama Papers crisis, online activity around Mauricio Macri averaged at around 69,000mentionsperday.

However,duringthetwoweeksafterthecrisisbroke,thenumberofmentionsrosedrasticallytoanaverageofover127,000onlinementionsperday.

Macri’sTwitterfollowingwasnotimpactedbyPanamaPapers:althoughhisTwitteraccountgainedaround60,000followersafterthecrisis,thisappearstoberoutineaccountgrowth.

AddtothisthefactthatonlineactivityaroundMacrihasnowdroppedbackdowntonormallevels,anditbecomesentirelyplausiblethatMacriwillsufferfewconsequencesfromthePanamaPapersscandal.

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2. THE FIRST CASUALTY: SIGMUNDUR DAVÍÐ GUNNLAUGSSON – 248,769 MENTIONS

Asthefirsttruecasualtyofthescandal, IcelandicPrimeMinisterSigmundurDavíðGunnlaugssonisalsooneofthemost-mentionedindividualsofthePanamaPapers,with248,769mentions.

AfterhewasfoundtobeinvolvedwithMossackFonsecathroughhiswife,10,000peopletooktothestreetstoprotestonMondayApril4th.

TheprotestsandGunnlaugsson’ssubsequent resignationgota lotofcoverage in thepressandonsocial media. The most-shared articles were a video from the Guardian showing the PM’s initialreactiontotheaccusations,avideooftheprotests,andapiecefromtheBBC:

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A social media backlash that led to resignation

Gunnlaugsson was forced to step down under public pressure, although he claims that it is onlytemporary.

ThescandalcertainlyputtheIcelandicPrimeMinisterintothespotlight:inthetwoweeksrunningupto the release of the Panama Papers, online activity around Gunnlaugsson, who has no Twitteraccount,averagedatjust20tweetsperday.Duringthefirstweekofthecrisis,thisshottoover6,000mentionsperdayonaverage,onlytodropbackdowntoverylownumberssoonafter.

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3. DAVID CAMERON’S FAMILY INVESTMENTS – 170,567 MENTIONS

UKPrimeMinisterDavidCameroncomesinthirdplacewith170,567mentions.ThePMfoundhimselfinthehotseatafteritwasrevealedthathehadbenefittedfromanoffshoretrustbelongingtohislatefather.

Thediscoverysparkedpublicoutrageandprotestscalling forhis resignation,andthe tophashtagsused in tweets aboutDavidCameron reflectpublic opinion:#resigncameron,#cameronresign and#cameronmustgoareallvisibleinthewordcloudbelow.

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A PR disaster for Cameron

Cameron’sconnectiontothePanamaPapersisyetanotherdisasterinwhathasalreadybeenatermfraughtwithPRcrises.ThePanamaPaperssparkedthe#resigncameronmovementonTwitter,amassprotestattemptingtoforcethePMtoresign.

He has refused to step down, in spite of themedia storm created by the scandal: the number ofmentionsaroundtheUKPMshotfrom70,000perdayonaveragebeforethecrisistoover150,000mentionsperdayafterthePanamaPaperswerepublished.

OnTwitter,thecrisishasboostedCameron’saudience:hehasgainedover14,000followerssinceApril3rd.

ForthemomentitisdifficulttopredictwhatthetrueconsequencesofthePanamaPaperswillbeforDavidCameron,buttheyhavemostcertainlydamagedhisalreadypoorimageevenfurther.

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4. VLADIMIR PUTIN’S HIDDEN FORTUNE – 125,868 MENTIONS

AlthoughRussianPresidentVladimirPutin’snamewasn’tdirectlyfoundinthePanamaPapers,heissuspectedtobelinkedtoanetworkofindividualsworthover2billiondollars.

Hehasbeentargetedinanumberofwidely-sharedpressarticles,thepopularofwhichbeingpiecesfromtheICIJ,Slate,andElPaís:

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Few consequences for Putin

Putinhasdismissedallallegations,butthathasn’tstoppedhimfromhittingtheheadlines:theRussianPresidenthasgonefromanaverageof27,000mentionsperdaybeforethecrisis,toalmostdoublethatat50,000mentionsperdaysincethescandalbegan.Thenumberofmentionshasdroppedbackdowntoitsusuallevelshowever,meaningthatPutinmayescapefromthisrelativelyunscathed.

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5. THE SOURCE: MOSSACK FONSECA – 107,746 MENTIONS

InspiteofbeingattheheartofthescandalandthesourceofthePanamaPapers,MossackFonsecaonlycomeinfifthplace.Thelawfirm’sethicshavebeenheavilycriticizedaftertheywerefoundtohavelinkstodictatorssuchasGaddafi,AssadandMubarak.

Ananalysisof thetopexpressionsused intweetsandpressarticlesaboutMossackFonsecashowswhichtopicstheconversationaroundthefirmisfocusingon:MossackFonseca’smoresinisterclients,thestatement issuedbythefirm inresponsetothe leak,andRamónFonseca’scomplaintthatthecompany had been the victimof a hack and a breach of privacy… forwhich he has unsurprisinglyreceivedverylittlesympathy.

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A law firm dragged into the spotlight

ThePanamaPapershavecatapultedMossackFonsecafromrelativeobscuritytoglobalnotoriety.

Inthetwoweekspriortothecrisis,thefirmboastedaround3,700mentionsperday.Oncethecrisisbegan,onlineactivityaroundMossackFonsecaincreasedelevenfold:duringthefirsttwoweeksafterthestartofthecrisis,thefirmhadanaverageof42,000mentionsperday.

The law firm’s new-found notoriety is reflected in its Twitter account: since Panama Papers,@Mossfon’sfollowershavemorethandoubled,goingfromjust1,843to4,285.

Theinvestigationintothelawformisjustnowgettingunderway,sowecanexpecttohearmoreabouttheminthenearfuture.

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Key findings from the Panama Papers so far

Twoweeks on and 6,793,956mentions later, the initial excitement around the Panama Papers isgraduallydyingdown,butthefactthatthescandalhashadsuchalastingonlinepresenceistestamenttoitsimpact.

ThePanamaPapershavebeentheperfectexampleofacrisisonaglobalscale.Someoftheworld’smostinfluentialpressorganisationshavebeendirectlyinvolvedintheinvestigationwithSüddeutscheZeitung, and the scandal has beenmassively covered in 24 languages.Once the informationwasreleaseditspreadincrediblyquickly,reachingoveramillionmentionsinunder12hours.Eachnewrevelationbroughtaboutimpressivespikesinonlineactivity.

Socialmediawasakeyfactorinhelpingtheinformationtospreadatsuchhighspeed.Twitter’sreal-timenaturewasespeciallyimportanthere,drivingthenewsworldwidewiththehelpofinfluencerssuchasEdwardSnowden,whogeneratedimpressiveamountsofengagement.

The Panama Papers have featured a shocking number of current and past world leaders. Therevelationshavesparkedseverallarge-scalesocialmediamovementsandthousandsofpressarticles,aswellassomehugereal-lifeprotests.Andyet,withonlyonepoliticianhavingsteppeddownsofar,and others suffering little more than an additional blot on their already-dubious reputations, it’sdifficulttotelliftherewilltrulybeanyconsequencesforthoseinvolved.

For the time being, Panama Papers has mostly affected political figures; few brands have beenimplicated.However,companiesshouldbemakingthemostofthistimetopreparethemselvesforpotentialbacklashfromthescandal.Astheinvestigationscontinue,wecanexpecttostarttoseemorebrandsmakingtheheadlines:FrenchbankSociétéGénéralehasalreadybeenimplicatedinoffshoreshell companies, as have HSBC and the Royal Bank of Scotland.The initial uproar around PanamaPapers may have dimmed for the time being, but it is far from over: Süddeutsche Zeitung havepromisedmorerevelationsintheweeksandmonthstocome.

Panama Papers: The online impact of a global scandal

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