Pandemic InfluenzaAre you ready?
I had a little birdIts name was EnzaI opened the window And in-flu-enza
- 1918 children’s nursery rhyme
Are you ready?
History of Flu Pandemics
• Seasonal flu to Black Death to 1918• 1918 Pandemic:
• Cytokine storms• Unfair killer
• 1957 Asian Flu• 1968 Hong Kong Flu
Are you ready?
Influenza ‘crash course’
Where do the birds fit in this?
• Flu symptoms identified in birds in 1878 • Chicken in Scotland identified as having H5N1• Bird-to-human transmission very rare• Human-to-human transmission extremely rare• Culling and containment
Are you ready?
Influenza ‘crash course’
Are you ready?Are you ready?
Influenza ‘crash course’
Biology 101
Virus v. bacteria
Alphabet soup… HN huh?
Are you ready?Are you ready?
Influenza ‘crash course’
So bad news for birds but…
“Sloppy, capricious and promiscuous”
Antigenic drift
Antigenic shift
Pandemic Influenza is differentTen things to know
Are you ready?
Influenza pandemics are recurring events
1. Pandemic influenza is different
Are you ready?
The world will experience another pandemic
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
Are you ready?
All countries will be affected
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
Are you ready?
By Aaron Koblin
Widespread illness will occur
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
Are you ready?
Medical supplies will be inadequate
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
Are you ready?
Large numbers of deaths will occur
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
Are you ready?
Infection Rate
Case Mortality
Total Deaths
Deaths US
30% 0.2% 3.6 million 177,600
50% 0.2% 6 million 296,000
30% 2.5% 45 million 2.2 million
50% 2.5% 75 million 3.7 million
30% 5% 90 million 4.4 million
50% 5% 150 million 7.4 million
Are you ready?
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
If the next pandemic mirrors 1918…
1 in 37 people worldwide will die
Economic and social disruption will be great
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
Are you ready?
Every country must be prepared
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
8. Economic and social disruption will be great
Are you ready?
Every person should be prepared
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
8. Economic and social disruption will be great
9. Every country must be prepared
Are you ready?
Personal preparedness
www.pandemicinfluenza.gc.cawww.pandemicflu.gov
Making personal decisions about your own level of risk and therefore, need for preparedness
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world will experience another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
8. Economic and social disruption will be great
9. Every country must be prepared
Are you ready?
Church Preparedness
Who is attending your church?What kind of community are you in?What is your local authority
planning?Are there unmet needs?Do you have a church continuity
plan?
1. Pandemic influenza is different
2. Influenza pandemics are recurring events
3. The world is on the brink of another pandemic
4. All countries will be affected
5. Widespread illness will occur
6. Medical supplies will be inadequate
7. Large numbers of deaths will occur
8. Economic and social disruption will be great
9. Every country must be prepared
Are you ready?