Panel on the Future of Science
Scottish Government’s Science and Engineering
Profession 2014 Conference
Julia Brown
“Its the economy,
stupid”
JOBS
INTERNATIONALISATION
INNOVATION
GROWTH COMPANIES
Our input to sectors will be tailored to where we add most value
Internationally Traded
Oil & Gas
Food & Drink
Technology & Engineering
Financial Services
Chemical Sciences
Universities
High contribution to:
GDP and potential for export growth and FDI
SE role to support export-led growth, improving
competitiveness in global value-chains and diversification into
new market opportunities
Emerging
Offshore Renewables
Life Sciences
Creative Industries
Ability to accelerate new growth through:
Future growth to scale
Development of key Scottish assets
SE role to accelerate the development and growth of the sector through exploitation of
the asset base and reinforcement of Scotland’s advantages in international
markets
Underpinning
Tourism
Construction
Forestry & Timber
Textiles
Defined for their contribution to Scotland’s employment and business
environment
SE role to enhance the contribution to Scotland’s
competitive advantage, reflecting the importance of
these sectors to Employment and Regional Equity
Supporting sector growth
We also support cross-sector opportunities including Big Data; High
Value manufacturing; Enhanced Health and; Industrial Biotech
35,000 employees in over
650 organisations
over 170 core
medical device
companies
a world leading
centre for
stem cell research & regenerative medicine
largest cluster of
world class
animal health
researchers
Life Sciences in Scotland
NHS Scotland
a single healthcare system
Cradle to Grave single medical record
pharma services
companies 140
Scotland’s Life Sciences
Research Funding
30
26 15
11
7 7 4
Council Research GrantResearch Council Research Grant CharitiesPublic BusinessEurope Other
Breakdown
of Scottish
HEI sources
of research
income
academic
year 2011-12
Collaboration with Companies
International Comparative Performance of the Scottish Performance in Life sciences Elsevier, 2013
Collaboration between Scottish university and either Scottish
or foreign corporation
Click to add title
Click to add subtitle
Horizon scanning
Scan. Prioritise. Take action. Today.
We know that:
• The global middle class will increase by
additional 1bn by 2025
• By 2025 47% of the global GDP will be
generated by just 440 cities in developing
economies
• Many of today’s global companies emerged
through disruptive innovation (Amazon,
Netflix, Microsoft, Cisco ..)
• Every minute, the world’s 2.1bn internet
population ‘likes’ 34,722
brands/organisations on Facebook
• China and India will produce 40% of the
world’s graduates by 2020
Transformative change is happening.
Are the growth companies and sectors
we support genuinely prepared for:
• Changing customer demands ?
• Shifts in global markets ?
• Competition from new entrants, markets and
business models – from anywhere in the world ?
• Changing workforce expectations ?
• Adaptation to climate change and resource
costs/constraints ?
• Unforeseen technological developments ?
What future are we planning for ?
e
Drivers of change
UNCERTAINTY
PREDICTABILITY
TIME
INTELLIGENCE
(0 – 1 YEAR)
FORESIGHTING
(2 – 5 YEARS)
HORIZON
SCANNING
(5 YEARS +)
Horizon scanning:
• Focusing on the weak
signals of change
• New opportunities as well
as unfamiliar perspectives
on ‘old’ issues
• A global perspective
• Collates intelligence from
SE staff and partners
• Complements technology
foresighting undertaken by
Sector Teams
Economic
change
Market
change
Disruptive
change
Overview
• Purpose
– To provide an ‘early warning system’,
identifying emerging opportunities and
threats for the Scottish economy
– To prompt action-oriented responses by SE
• Benefits
– An anticipative approach to economic
development
– Encourages an outward, forward-looking
perspective by customers
– Drives the project pipeline
What makes a good horizon
scanning topic ?
any topic not currently being
addressed by SE that could
potentially have significant
implications for the Scottish
economy
we are particularly looking for
topics that fit within one or
more of the six strategic
themes
Theme 1: Changing markets, changing customers
Some illustrative signals of change …
KEY TRENDS :
Global cultural diversity, needing differentiated market approaches
Boom in the global middle class
Millenial consumers – young, smart and tech-savvy
Potential for significant slowdown in the BRIC economies
Theme 2: Innovative business and investment models
KEY TRENDS :
New models of business collaboration
Disruptive business model innovation
Value created through the blurring of services and products
Alternative sources of funding and investment
Some illustrative signals of change …
Theme 3: Talent, skills and work
KEY TRENDS :
Automation of routine tasks
Increase in global, mobile talent
Explosion in highly talent pool in Asia
Workplace innovation
Some illustrative signals of change …
Theme 4: Climate change and resource use revolution
IMPLICATIONS ?
Global demographic change
IMPLICATIONS ?
Global demographic change
KEY TRENDS :
Demand for natural resources outstripping supply
Alternative sources of energy
Climate-resilient food supply chains
Migration and global environmental change
Some illustrative signals of change …
Theme 5: Health, wellbeing and the economy
KEY TRENDS :
Growth in chronic diseases in society
Digital health solutions for home treatment
Growing impacts of mental health on the labour market and productivity
Health and wellness technologies
Some illustrative signals of change …
Theme 6: The future of economic development
KEY TRENDS :
New thinking about the purpose of economic development
New collaborative delivery models
New organisational structures for economic development agencies
New players and global ‘competition’
Some illustrative signals of change …
Outline
Background and Capability of the James Hutton Institute,
Horizon scanning EU/Worldwide on topics close to James Hutton Institute
Future of Science
- Converging technologies
- New ways with new providers of science
Population of 8.3 billion by 2030 (UN)
Food
50% increase in
demand (FAO)
Energy
50% increase in
demand (EIA)
Freshwater
30% increase in
demand (FAO)
Land
120m ha needed in
developing countries
crop production (FAO)
Soil erosion &
biodiversity loss
The Global Challenge
Platform for the future
• c. 340 scientists and 130 support staff (glasshouse and farms support, finance and admin)
• Joint appointments at professorial and senior lecturer level with Universities of Dundee (6), Aberdeen (2), St Andrews(1), Heriot Watt (1)
• Post-graduate school of >130 students registered for PhD
• Host Biomathematics Statistics Scotland (BioSS) – 29 staff
• Host the Division of Plant Sciences, University of Dundee at our Invergowrie Site - c. 45 staff and students
Discipline diversity
Genetics
Biogeochemistry
Physics Bioinformatics
Geo-informatics
Plant breeding
Biology Chemistry
Mineralogy
Plant physiology
Crop science
Economics Mathematics
Plant physiology
Soil science
Analytical chemistry
Agro-ecology
Hydrology
Entomology Virology
Zoology
Microbiology
Systems modelling
Entomology
Ecology
Plant Pathology
Psychology
Molecular biology
Geography Sociology
Statistics
Epidemiology
Biochemistry
Soil/land survey
Platform for the future - Facilities • Two main office and lab sites in Aberdeen
and Dundee – Incl. 10,000 m² of specialised glasshouse and growth
rooms
• Extensive chemical, physics and biology labs and a huge range of cutting edge analytical equipment
– Sequencing and microarray facility – Confocal, TEM Microscopy – Plant Transformation Facility – Labs for plant, animal, invertebrate, microbial, virology ,
soil and water – Field capability in air, water, soil and wildlife monitoring – Inorganic and organic chemical analysis – Metabolomics – Stable isotopes – Mineralogy analysis by XRD, SEM and FTIR – Computational processing and storage facilities – Specialist engagement facilities e.g. Landscape
visualisation theatre; Touch table;
• Four farms with wide range of land use/soil types
Platform for the future - Scientific collections
• Crop seed and germplasm – Commonwealth Potato Collection - >1500 accessions, 93 species
– Barley collection
– Rubes, Ribes Collection
• Pests and Pathogens – Aphids
– Phytophthora
• Plant Herbarium
• National Soils Archive – Air dried soil
–Soil DNA
Platform for the future - Long term data • Meteorological Data
• Two WMO registered sites contributing to UK and Global data
• COSMOS UK Network
• Environmental Change Network
• Water, soil, air, biodiversity
• UK, European and Global network
• Pollen Records – National network – reported
as Pollen index on TV /radio weather forecasts
• Aphid Records – National network on
surveillance of pests
• Livestock, crop and soil records from long
term experiments
• National Data on soil and land attributes
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 2012
Mea
n A
nn
ual
Tem
p o
C
Year
Impact
• Contribution to national and international
science in terms of findings, innovations and
international data , knowledge and wisdom
• Leadership of science through committees,
expert and advisory panels, consortia
• KE and training
• Wealth creation through:
• new products, patents and IP (crops, data products, programs; instrumentation);
• advice on better management, risk and uncertainty, policy
Horizon scanning - What's new since last SCAR1 report?
• The vulnerability of the food system • The sustainable development challenge of agriculture and
food systems • The complexity of the new challenges even greater than we
thought • The underestimation of the rate of climate change • The adequacy of the Agri-Environment Knowledge System • The convergence of new technologies • Underestimate of greening/CAP reforms to halt and reverse
biodiversity, especially the uplands • Signs of new community empowerment – e.g. local energy
networks, local food networks
1 European Commission, Standing Committee on Agricultural Research SCAR FORESIGHT EXERCISEs
Convergence in Future Science
• Human microbiome Project
• Fundamental insight on how microbes in and on us control the physiology and health of each and everyone of us.
• This is going to be true for all macro-organisms including crops & livestock
• If we converge the age of the microbiome
with that of the e.g. crop genomes we will
probably be designing new crops and new
management systems that use the natural
microbes in soil, plants and insects to alter
gene expression in pests, pathogens and
plants for improved health, vitality and
productivity of crops, the environment and
humans
The James Hutton Institute – founded on science – future in partnership
• James Hutton (1726 – 1797)
- leading figure of the Scottish
Enlightenment whose work spanned
chemistry, medicine, meteorology,
geology, botany and zoology
• Discoverer of “Deep Time” and one of
the first to describe the Earth as a living
system and …….a farmer
• Today we have conventionally very
formalised scientists but it is changing?
• Co-construction with the problem owners
• Citizen science
• Crowd solutions
• Private companies publishing academic journals
Future Plans – Open Science • Human Resource – continue to grow Social and computational sciences and our Post-
graduate school
• Land resource – enhance our research platforms, new agri-renewables platform, more
open access
• Scientific collections – enhance and increase open access
• Facilities – enhance through infra-structure replacement programme, especially IT,
innovation centres (e.g. International Barley IC), more open access and sharing with
stakeholders
Policy stages of 4- 8 years
Macro-Trends (landscape environment, social, policy drivers)
Technology and Research Developments (landscape and regime drivers)
DISRUPTIONS & TURBU- LENCES AS DRIVER FOR CHANGE
Agriculture and Food Developments (regime drivers)
Development of important alternatives (niche drivers)
Period 2016-2023
• Acceleration of water and soil scarcity
• Fossil energy use still continues Kyoto II climate change measures
• Reorientation in Rural policies towards more ecosystem service
• Price segmentation will even stronger continue between premium and mass production.
• Strong importation from global players
• Strong migration flows • Severe world-wide food
scandals and pandemic diseases
• Strong civil society concerns and loss of trust.
• Strong development of nanotechnology and genome based technologies
• Switch to intra-species GMO
• Still strong development of information technology
• Break through centralised technology
• Research more on the interlinkages and cross-cutting issues
• More open-space research
• Research of the full costs of food and farming systems
• WATER AND SOIL SCARCITIES SEVERE FOOD SCARCITIES FOR THE POOR PANDEMICS AND BIOSECURITY SCANDALS RESISTANCE PROBLEMS AS SHORTFALL
• Still strong centralization within the food and agri- sector Reorientation of CAP with much less money for direct payments Bio-and agro-energy boom
• Food shortages in some areas The push for high-yield crops will lead to more input use More environmental pressure More and more intensive arable production with maize and rape seed Livestock: more and more resistance problems
• Mostly big farms will profit of high-tech technology
• Strong change of ownerships of land Continued centralisation of the food sector more risks of widespread diseases. Use of cheap (seasonal) labour
• More regionalism and different sustainable label claims
• Reconsideration of the value-basis
• New certification systems
• More coexistence problems between Non-GMO- and GMO-farming
• Agricultural machine industry development potential
• Some regions GMO free • More farmer based
research breeding concepts
Horizon scanning e.g. Table 11 (slightly modified) from SCAR Report - Trends and development scenarios in the food and farming sector
SASA © Crown Copyright
Future of Science
A human perspective
John Kerr
SASA © Crown Copyright
Future…what future?
SASA © Crown Copyright
Actually it is more nuanced
SASA © Crown Copyright
and polarised
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
More informed does not
mean more accepting
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
Engagement and trust
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
Publication is a
start but…
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
£$€ Show me the Money €$£
…research spending as % GDP. The UK has fallen behind
the European average - a trend that has occurred over
successive governments and one that is set to continue
Case October 2014
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
SASA © Crown Copyright
Public
interface
SASA © Crown Copyright
And Then
We must also engage the public
in that that work
We must make
the links to
maximise
returns from
our science.
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Moredun Research Institute
“To prevent and control infectious diseases of livestock, working in partnership with the
farming community”
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Moredun Research Institute
Infectious endemic livestock diseases of relevance to Scotland, UK, EU and worldwide
Livestock sector in UK contributes £ 8 Billion
Losses associated with disease £ 1 Billion
Food security: Demand for food expected to
increase by 40% in 2030 and by 70% in 2050
Dietary shifts: Emerging economies
Increase sustainable efficiency of livestock
production, improve welfare and reduce
waste
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Moredun Research Institute Develop sustainable control strategies for livestock diseases
Multi-disciplinary approach
Parasitology Bacteriology Virology
Immunology Bioinformatics Molecular Biology Proteomics/Genomics
Surveillance Pathology Epidemiology
62% of human pathogens are zoonotic
75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Achievements at Moredun
• Identification of the cause of 18 diseases
• Characterisation of the pathogenesis of 23 diseases
• Development of vaccines for 11 diseases
• Development of treatment strategies for 12 diseases
• Surveillance service for 36 diseases
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Future Challenges
Delivering impactful science with diminishing resources Prevention is better than cure: sustainable disease control solutions (use of chemotherapeutics, food safety, effective vaccines) Maximising vaccine efficacy and understanding failure (co-infections, host genetics) Interpreting large data sets (‘wet’ lab and computational skills) Public acceptance of science and technological advances (ability to genetically modify pathogens and hosts)
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk
Title of Slide
Text should be this font and size
www.moredun.org.uk