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Daniel Fabricant, Ph.D.
CEO & Exec. Director
NIA-West Spring Conference
May 25, 2016
Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and Opportunities for the most volatile political
cycle EVER!!!!
Puerto Rico?????
Yes, the same place that brought you the Pina Colada
Debt problems
Next Industry Challenge brought to you by….
114th Congress
House of Representatives
• Majority Party: Republican (246)
• Minority Party: Democrat (188)
• Speaker of the House – Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin)
• Majority Leader – Kevin McCarthy (R-California)
• Minority Leader – Nancy Pelosi (D-California)
Senate
• Majority Party: Republican (54)
• Minority Party: Democrat (46)
• President Pro Tempore – The Honorable Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
• Majority Leader – Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)
• Minority Leader – Harry Reid (D-Nevada)
Next Congress – and a new Admin
House of Representatives
• R majority but not as big as it is now
Senate
• Big 4 states – WI, PA, NH, IL
• NV – Flip
• HELP – likely Patty Murray (D-WA)
– Elevation of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren
Donald Trump: Presumptive GOP Nominee
Darling of the anti-establishment grassroots
Currently the leader in the primaries and the likely Republican nominee
Concerns about his inexperience in politics and general lack of tact
Doesn’t connect with most moderate voters, women, or minorities.
National Total Contributions: $57.7 million
• Individual: $13,857,206
• PAC: $0
• Party: $58
• Candidate: $43,804,727
Total Disbursements: $55,080,299
Cash On Hand: $2,408,642
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
Donald J. Trump (R)
National Total Contributions: $207.6 million
• Individual: $206,025,230
• PAC: $5,150
• Party: $0
• Candidate: $0
Total Disbursements: $201,777,405
Cash On Hand: $5,796,719
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
Bernie Sanders (D)
National Total Contributions: $782.1 million
• Individual: $709,256,820
• PAC: $2,281,842
• Party: $1,159
• Candidate: $45,785,688
Total Disbursements: $729,297,680
Cash On Hand: $56,812,607
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
All 2016 Presidential Candidates
What the hell is a PAC?
Video
Hillary Clinton: $33,410,943
Bernie Sanders: $16,435,573
Donald J. Trump: $385,929
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
California 2016 Presidential Candidate Contributions
Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Current front runner for the Democratic primary
Massive war-chest and organization
Questions about corruption
Are we tired of hearing about those emails?
National Total Contributions: $204.3 million
• Individual: $185,564,858
• PAC: $1,181,170
• Party: $1,000
• Candidate: $796,562
Total Disbursements: $174,101,369
Cash On Hand: $30,156,932
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
Hillary Clinton (D)
Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
Darling of young voters
Catching up to Hillary in Democratic Primary
Ranking Member of Senate Budget Committee
Self described Democratic Socialist, most liberal candidate in the race
Democrats need a net of five seats to win control of the senate
If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie
States with Senate Races in 2016
Republican-held seat – state won by Romney in 2012
Democratic-held seat
Mont.
Va. W .Va.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Iowa
Kan. K y .
La.
Maine
Colo.
Del.
N.J.
Mass.
N.C.
S.C.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
R.I.
N.M.
T exas
W yo.
S.D.
Tenn. Okla.
Ore.
Ark.
N.H.
Alaska
Hawaii
Ala.
Mo.
Nev.
Vt.
Utah
Fla.
Ind. Ohio
Md.
N. Y. W is.
Conn.
Ariz.
N.D.
Pa.
Wash.
Calif.
Neb.
Republican-held seat – state won by Obama in 2012
Florida: Aug. 30 Primaries for OPEN SEAT
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio, who isn’t running
Primaries: Aug. 30
Democrats: Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy
Republicans: Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, developer Carlos Beruff, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox
Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less than 1 percentage point in the 2012 presidential election — the closest margin in the nation.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Lopez-Cantera from Florida website; all others from Twitter
Grayson
Murphy
DeSantis
Jolly
Lopez-Cantera
Wilcox
Beruff
Illinois: Kirk-Duckworth Battle this Fall
Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk, vying for a second term (left)
Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth,(right)
Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a Democratic
state and the occupant of the Senate seat Obama once held.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Lean Democratic (changed May 5 from “Toss Up/Tilt Democrat”)
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic
Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website
Nevada: Who Replaces Top Senate Democrat?
Incumbent: Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who is retiring
June 14 primaries may affirm heavy favorites:
Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state attorney general backed by Reid (left)
Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency room doctor and veteran (right)
Why watch: This is the Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Masto from state attorney general website
New Hampshire: Ayotte-Hassan Matchup Ahead
Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte (left)
Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan (right)
Primaries: Sept. 13
Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its voting patterns come close to mirroring the national popular vote in that election.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Ayotte ; Hassan from governor’s website
Ohio: Portman and Strickland to Face Off
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (left)
Challenger: Former Governor Ted Strickland (right)
Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up for grabs. Portman and Strickland both are familiar faces to the electorate.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website
Pennsylvania: Toomey-McGinty Race Set
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (left)
Challenger: Katie McGinty (right), former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, who won April 26 primary; she was backed by White House and Democratic campaign arm and defeated former Representative Joe Sestak
Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state that votes Democratic for president.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Toomey from Senate website; McGinty from Twitter account
Wisconsin: Johnson-Feingold Rematch Likely
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson, seeking a second term (left)
Challenger: Former Senator Russ Feingold (right)
Primaries on Aug. 9
Why watch: The last time a Wisconsin Republican won a Senate race in a presidential election year was 1980, raising questions about what the presidential turnout will mean for Johnson’s re-election chances. Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic
Photo credits: Johnson from Senate website; Feingold from campaign website biography
Governors’ Races in 2016
Source:
Democratic incumbent running
Republican incumbent running
Mont.
Neb.
Va. W.Va.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Iowa
Kan. K y .
La.
Maine
Colo.
Del.
N.J.
Mass.
N.C.
S.C.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
R.I.
N.M.
T exas
W yo.
S.D.
T enn. Okla.
Ore.
Ark.
N.H.
Alaska
Hawaii
Ala.
Mo.
Ne v .
Vt.
Utah
Fla.
Ind. Ohio
Md.
N. Y . W is.
Conn.
Ariz.
N.D.
Pa.
Wash.
Calif.
Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information
Democratic incumbent not running
Republican incumbent not running
State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date
Presidential vote 2012
Delaware Jack Markell (D) term-limited
• John Carney • Colin Bonini • Lacey Lafferty
Sept. 13 Obama 59% Romney 40%
Indiana Mike Pence (R), seeking re-election
• John Gregg • Pence May 3 Romney 54% Obama 44%
Missouri Jay Nixon (D), term-limited
• Chris Koster • John Brunner • Eric Greitens • Catherine
Hanaway • Peter Kinder
Aug. 2 Romney 54% Obama 44%
Montana Steve Bullock (D), seeking re-election
• Bullock • Greg Gianforte June 7 Romney 55% Obama 42%
New Hampshire
Maggie Hassan (D), running for U.S. Senate
• Mark Connolly • Colin Van Ostern • Steve Marchand
• Frank Edelblut • Ted Gatsas • Chris Sununu • Jeanie Forrester
Sept. 13 Obama 52% Romney 46%
North Carolina
Pat McCrory (R), seeking re-election
• Roy Cooper • McCrory March 15 Romney 50% Obama 48%
Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards
States With Governors’ Elections in 2016
States With Governors’ Elections in 2016
State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date
Presidential vote 2012
North Dakota
Jack Dalrymple (R), retiring
• Marvin Nelson • Paul Sorum • Wayne Stenehjem • Doug Burgum
June 14 Romney 58% Obama 39%
Oregon Kate Brown (D), seeking election*
• Brown • Julian Bell
• Bud Pierce • Bob Niemeyer
May 17 Obama 54% Romney 42%
Utah Gary Herbert (R), seeking re-election
• Vaughn R. Cook • Mike Weinholtz
• Herbert • Jonathan Johnson
Aug. 9 Romney 73% Obama 25%
Vermont Peter Shumlin (D), retiring
• Matt Dunne • Sue Minter • H. Brooke Paige
• Bruce Lisman • Phil Scott
Aug. 9 Obama 67% Romney 31%
Washington Jay Inslee (D), seeking re-election
• Inslee • Bill Bryant Aug. 2 Obama 56% Romney 41%
West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin (D), retiring
• Booth Goodwin • Jim Justice • Jeff Kessler
• Bill Cole May 10 Romney 62% Obama 36%
* Kate Brown became governor in 2015 after John Kitzhaber resigned.
Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards
Total Receipts: $69,448,146
Total Disbursements: $36,834,379
Democrat: $42,703,269
Republican: $26,674,287
*California has 53 Congressional Districts
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
California 2016 U.S. House Races
Total Receipts: $14,156,030
Total Disbursements: $6,621,988
Democrat: $13,055,924
Republican: $1,044,785
*Senator Barbara Boxer (D) is retiring
*Contributions Through 4/30/2016
California 2016 U.S. Senate Race
State Assembly
• Total Receipts: $32,123,847
State Senate
• Total Receipts: $18,444,848
*California has 80 State Assembly Districts
*California has 40 State Senate Districts
California 2016 State Leg. Races
Congressional Dietary Supplement Caucus
Founded in 2006
Provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and information on
dietary supplements, nutrition, sports nutrition, etc.
Bipartisan and Bicameral
• 34 members in House
• 5 members in Senate
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Overreach
Under the FFDCA, the FTC regulates the advertising of dietary
supplements and foods to determine that they are truthful and not
misleading.
In recent years, FTC has increased action against dietary
supplement companies making claims on product labels, they
continue to overstep its regulatory authority.
• Example: Bayer vs. FTC
NPA welcomes regulatory action from the FTC when appropriate,
within the agency’s boundaries that do not violate DSHEA or
FFDCA.
Dietary Supplement Labeling Act (DSLA)
Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) has introduced his DSLA legislation
in each of the last two Congresses.
• NPA expects the Senator to re-introduce in the 114th Congress.
In previous iterations, the DSLA has proposed amending the
FFDCA to create additional registration and labeling requirements
for dietary supplements.
NPA will strongly oppose the DSLA when re-introduced in 114th
Congress.
AG tie in? Oregon, NY
However, multiple industry initiatives are moving ahead
• Registration database
• Uniform cGMP audit for retail
• Botanical Raw material cGMPs
GMO Labeling
Ongoing GMO debate has spurned nearly half of U.S. States to introduce GMO food labeling legislation – Vermont being the most prominent.
Sen. Stabenow and Sen. Roberts working on a compromise to beat Vt. implementation
Gen Mills, Campbells, etc.
The House of Representatives passed legislation in 2015 which would establish a national voluntary labeling standard and federal preemption of states.
The Senate is currently considering similar legislation.
NPA’s Four Guiding Principles:
• Voluntary labeling of non-GMO foods;
• Uniform federal standard to avoid separate standards at the
state level;
• Opposing a private enforcement provision; and
• Supporting the FDA consistently reviewing the concept of GMO.
Health Savings Act of 2016
Legislation introduced in the House and Senate as H.R. 4469 and S.
2499 respectively.
Would allow reimbursement for dietary and nutritional supplements
from Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Flexible Spending
Accounts (FSAs), up to a cap of $1,000 per year.
NPA strongly supports this legislation and urges the House and
Senate to quickly pass it.
Ask your Member of Congress to co-sponsor this legislation!
• Current Cosponsors in House: Kelly, Jenkins, Costello, Kline, Comstock, Chaffetz and Gibbs
• Current Cosponsors in Senate: Rubio, Barrasso, Johnson, Kirk, and Portman
Sen. McCaskill (D-MO) lots of inquiries on FDA and now DoJ
Picamilon
Vinpocetine
No hearing yet
FDA cGMP stats - flat
Select Sen. Aging Comm.
Dietary Supplement Labeling Act (DSLA)
Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) has introduced his DSLA legislation
in each of the last two Congresses.
• NPA expects the Senator to re-introduce in the 114th Congress.
In previous iterations, the DSLA has proposed amending the
FFDCA to create additional registration and labeling requirements
for dietary supplements.
NPA will strongly oppose the DSLA when re-introduced in 114th
Congress.
AG tie in? Oregon, NY
However, multiple industry initiatives are moving ahead
• Registration database
• Uniform cGMP audit for retail
• Botanical Raw material cGMPs
Unified Agenda from HHS
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaMain?operation=OPE
RATION_GET_AGENCY_RULE_LIST¤tPub=true&agen
cyCode=&showStage=active&agencyCd=0900
NDI Redraft between now and the lame duck • Legislate by fiat
Other “fun” from DC and your governments
Thanks to Mike Kelley, Matt Keelen, Dr. Corey Hilmas
www.npainfo.org
New Office: • 440 1st Street, NW
Washington, DC
(202)-223-0101
Questions