11/23/2011 1 National Symposium on Climate Change Adaptation 16 – 17 November 2011, Pullman Putrajaya Lakeside GOALS AND ASPIRATIONS FOR COASTAL AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION By Dato’ Ong Siew Heng Deputy Director‐General II (Specialist Sector) Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia Introduction Climate Change Observations and Studies Outline of Presentation Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Programmes Water Resources Governance Aspects in Adaptation Programmes Conclusion Global Climate Change Scenarios Source: NOAA 2010 According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, global warming over the last few decades h l d d i bili i The Threats from Climate Change has already created extreme variability in the climate. This impact is likely to become even more severe in the future and can cause sea levels to rise as well as further extremes in the flood and drought situations of the country. Global Climate Change Impact Even if the world maintains the pace of the 1990s in water supply development, it would not be enough to ensure that everyone has access to safe drinking water by 2025. (Source: UNEP) Global Climate Change Scenarios
Transcript
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National Symposium on Climate Change Adaptation16 – 17 November 2011, Pullman Putrajaya Lakeside
GOALS AND ASPIRATIONS FOR
COASTAL AND WATER RESOURCES
IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
By
Dato’ Ong Siew Heng
Deputy Director‐General II (Specialist Sector)
Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia
Introduction
Climate Change Observations and Studies
Outline of Presentation
Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Programmes
Water Resources Governance Aspects in Adaptation Programmes
Conclusion
Global Climate Change Scenarios
Source: NOAA 2010
According to Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) assessment reports,global warming over the last few decadesh l d d i bili i
The Threats from Climate Change
has already created extreme variability inthe climate.
This impact is likely to become even moresevere in the future and can cause sea levelsto rise as well as further extremes in theflood and drought situations of the country.
Global Climate Change Impact
Even if the world maintains the pace of the 1990s in water supply development, it would not be enough to ensure that everyone has access to safe drinking water by 2025.
(Source: UNEP)
Global Climate Change Scenarios
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Potential Climate Change ImpactsWater Resources Systems impacted by Climate Change
Systems and sectors connected to human development and environment:
– Urban infrastructure: water supply and sanitation, urban drainage and solids
– Water related natural disasters: floods, droughts, landslides and avalanchesR l d l t g i lt f d it – Rural development: agriculture, food security, livelihood and environment
– Energy: demand and production (hydropower)– Transportation: navigation– Health: Human and animals– Environment: system sustainability in wetlands,
water quality, forest fires, etc.
Source: Cap-Net
Probable Adverse Climate Change Impacts
Hydro‐meteorological events Increase in annual rainfall Increase in droughts Occurrence of short duration heavy rainfallRainfall at unexpected timesRise in temperature
Other ImpactsSea level riseIncrease in salinity in coastal beltInundation of coastal plains
Increase in river erosion Increase in coastal erosion Increase in cyclonic events Increase in vector borne diseases
Reduced inflows to water storages
(dams/reservoirs)
Reduced stream flows
Reduction in rainfall
Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources
Reduced stream flows
Reduced water available for rainfed agriculture
Reduced recharge of groundwater
Threatened water supplies to cities, towns, agriculture, industries and environment
Severe droughts
• Increased inflows to water storages
Increase in temperature and rainfall
Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources
• Increased pressure on water storage infrastructure
• Increased availability of water for rainfed agriculture
• Increased risk of flood damage
• Possible changes to ecosystems
Adaptation Options
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Muar River
Annual precipitation(Basin average 1968-2007)
Annaul precipitation(Basin Average)
3000
Increase observed in annual precipitation
Climate Change?
1000
1500
2000
2500
1968/69
1970/71
1972/73
1974/75
1976/77
1978/79
1980/81
1982/83
1984/85
1986/87
1988/89
1990/91
1992/93
1994/95
1996/97
1998/99
2000/01
2002/03
2004/05
2006/07
Pre
cip
itat
ion(m
m)
Increase
Source : IRBM Sg. Muar (JICA, 2010)
30min. @ JPS AMPANG
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1.0010.00100.00Exceedance Probability (%)
Ra
infa
ll d
ep
th (
mm
)
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2007
45min. @ JPS AMPANG
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1.0010.00100.00Exceedance Probability (%)
Rai
nfa
ll d
epth
(m
m)
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2007
Increasing trends in short
Climate Change?
Exceedance Probability (%)
1hr. @ JPS AMPANG, SELANGOR
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
1.0010.00100.00
Exceedance Probability (%)
Ra
infa
ll d
epth
(m
m)
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2007
3hrs.@ JPS AMPANG, SELANGOR
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
110.0
130.0
150.0
1.0010.00100.00
Exceedance Probability (%)
Ra
infa
ll d
epth
(m
m)
1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2007
trends in short duration rainfall
NAHRIM Study on Climate Change Impact
Maximum MonthlyPrecipitation (mm)
NorthWestRegion
NorthEastRegion
CentralRegion
Southern Region
Maximum values of monthly precipitation
More rainfall More floods?More rainfall More floods?
(Source: NAHRIM Climate Change Study, 2006)
1984-1993 (1) 722.9 1440.9 633.6 591.7
2025-20242041-2050 (2)
767.8 1913.9 684.6 608.5
(2) - (1) 44.9 473.0 51.0 16.8
MMD Observations on Climate Change Impact
Precipitation ChangesIncreasing temperatures tend to increase evaporation which leads to more precipitation.
As average global temperatures have risen, average global precipitation has also increased
Source: IPCC, 2007
Peninsular Malaysia = 2031 km
Sabah = 1743 km
Langkawi
DID Study on Coastal Vulnerability –Sea Level Rise
Sarawak = 1035 km
South China Sea
Straits ofMalacca
TOTAL LENGTH = 4,809 KM
Tg. Piai
DID Study on Coastal Vulnerability ‐ SLR
Impacts of Sea Level Rise
1. Increased Wave HeightHigher water depth at shoreline Stronger winds generate bigger wavesRESULT ‐ increased coastal erosion
2. Coastal FloodingNew phenomenon in coastal townsGetting more serious every yearRESULT – more damage to property
3. Overtopping of coastal bundBund breaches becoming more commonRESULT – Increased losses to agriculture
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Coastal Vulnerability
Impacts of Sea Level Rise
Some minor inundation occurs along the coastal areas of Peninsular Malaysia
The highest SLR occurs in the northeast and northwest gregions of Peninsular Malaysia
The low elevation areas and river mouths in the southwest and north coasts of Sarawak are very vulnerable to SLR
Vulnerable areas in Sabah are smaller than in Sarawak since the coastal elevations are higher in Sabah
Predicted Sea Levels
Case No. SLR Scenarios Rate of SLR Year 2000 Year 2050 Year 2100
1 Observed (local) 1.3 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.065 m 0.13 m
SLR Case Scenarios – Tg. Piai
2 Global-Low 3.0 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.15 m 0.3 m
3 Global-Average 5.0 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.25 m 0.5 m
4 Gobal-High(Worst-case)
10.00 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.50 m 1.0 m
Predicted Sea Levels
Case No. SLR Scenarios Rate of SLR Year 2000 Year 2050 Year 2100
1 Observed (local) 1.0 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.050 m 0.10 m
SLR Case Scenarios – Langkawi
2 Global-Low 3.0 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.15 m 0.3 m
3 Global-Average 5.0 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.25 m 0.5 m
4 Gobal-High(Worst-case)
10.00 mm/yr 0.0 m 0.50 m 1.0 m
Water Resources ProgrammesAffected by Climate Change y g
Impact
Dam
Flood Mitigation Programmes
By-pass Tunnel
Dam
Retention Pond
River Channelisation
Water Resources Infrastructure
Storage dam
Irrigation canal
Water treatment plant
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Rock Revetment Groyne
Coastal Protection Projects
Bakau Replanting
Beach NourishmentConcrete Slab
Groyne
Water Resources Governance Aspects in Adaptation ProgrammesAspects in Adaptation Programmes
Revise and update DID Hydrological Procedures (HPs) based on current BMPs which take into account impact of climate change
100.0
1000.0
(mm
/hr)
Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency CurveSite 3117070@Pusat Penyelidikan JPS Ampang, Selangor
ARI: 5, 20 & 100-Y
Adaptation Measures in Design of New Water Resources Projects
1.0
10.0
0.1 1 10 100
Rain
fall I
nte
nsit
y (
Duration (hr)
TR
T
Rainfall‐runoffModel
Q
Design rainfall
Design flood
100.0
1000.0
mm
/hr)
RAINFALL INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVE1437116-Stor JPS Johor Bharu
Revised and Updated IDF for Design Storms
1.0
10.0
0.1 1 10 100
Rain
fall
Inte
nsi
ty (
m
Duration (hrs)
SIMULATED BASELINE + CC 100-YR
FLOOD HYDROGRAPH ~ 1650m3/s
Upper Limit Design Storm to Generate Design Flood
SIMULATED BASELINE 100-YR FLOOD
HYDROGRAPH ~ 1450m3/s
IFM as a Tool for Adaptation to Climate Change
Strategy Options Reducing Flooding Reducing Susceptibility to Damage
Dams and reservoirs Dikes, levees, and flood embankments High flow diversions Catchment management Channel improvements
Flood plain regulation Development and redevelopment policies Design and location of facilities
Mitigating the Impacts of Flooding Preserving the Natural Resources of Flood Plains
Design and location of facilities Housing and building codes Flood-proofing Flood forecasting and warning
Information and education Disaster preparedness Post flood recovery Flood insurance
Flood plain zoning and regulation
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Re‐evaluate the spillway design capacities of existing dams and operating rules since their design specifications do not take account of climate change impacts
Review on Hydrology of Dams
• Flood risk maps to be prepared using GIS and overlaid with available geographical information:
• Demography, infrastructure, major industries, crops, satellite imagery, etc.
• Flood emergency zones to be identified
Implementation of Integrated Flood Forecasting and Warning System
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The main objective is to develop a real-time flood forecasting model using Atmospheric Model-based Rainfall for providing real time flood warning and emergency
Atmospheric Model‐based Rainfall and Flood Forecasting System (AMRFF)
for providing real-time flood warning and emergency responses with a convenient lead-time to three river basins of Peninsular Malaysia, namely, Pahang River Basin, Kelantan River Basin and Johor River Basin.
Kajian Pelan Induk Tebatan Banjir Bagi Lembangan Sungai
Johor, Johor
Production of Flood Maps
On-site flood mark verification by State DID
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Infobanjir Webpage Public Infobanjir Websitehttp://publicinfobanjir.water.gov.my
Community Based Flood Awareness Programme
Drought Management
To establish and maintain a drought monitoring station network and ICT facilities for efficient and timely drought analysis and information di i idissemination
To develop a drought forecasting and early warning and dissemination (web‐based) system
To establish a drought warning and information dissemination mechanism (to relevant agencies) for effective communication and response
Water for people: all to have access to safe, adequate and affordable water supply, hygiene and sanitation
Water for food and rural development: provision of sufficient water that will ensure national food security and
l d l
NWRS Policy Content
promote rural development
Water for economic development: provision of sufficient water to spur and sustain economic growth within the context of a high income economy
Water for the environment: protection of the water environment to preserve water resources (both surface water and groundwater) and natural flow regimes, biodiversity and cultural heritage, along with mitigation of water‐related hazards
Definition of IWRM
A process that “promotes the coordinateddevelopment and management of water, land andrelated resources, in order to maximise the resultanteconomic and social welfare in an equitable mannereconomic and social welfare in an equitable mannerwithout compromising the sustainability of vitalecosystems.”
Global Water Partnership (GWP)
Water Balancing Act
Demand• Increasing in all
sectors• Inefficient use
Supply• Quantity• Quality• Costs of options
IWRMA balance between conditions for sustainable development (national interest)
and desirable socio‐economic development (public interest ) with ecological
conditions (environmental integrity)
National Water Resources Policy Statement
“The security and sustainability of water resources shall be made a national priority to ensure adequate and safe water for all, through sustainable use, conservation and effective management of water resources enabled by a mechanism of shared partnership involving all stakeholders.”
National Water Resources Policy Principles
Water resources security- Water resources must be secured to meet the needs and demands of both man and nature
Water Water Water WaterWaterfor
People
WaterforFood
Waterfor
the Environment
WaterFor
Industry and Others
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Water Resources Security Water Resources Sustainability
Policy Core Areas
PartnershipsCapacity Building
and Awareness
Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Management Plans
Reduce vulnerability of water resources to impacts and threats as well as strengthen adaptability to ecosystems and physical changes
Strategy:Strategy: Identify threats, impacts and hazards that affect water resources and bodies including all form of threats, hazards and impacts ensuing from water bodies
Water Conservation
Develop water resources conservation plans for strategic, sensitive and critical water resources areas and bodies
Strategy: Strategy:
Determine resiliency of water bodies and areas to stress, risks, impacts and hazard events
Alternative Water Resources and Sources
Optimise options for alternative, conjunctive or contiguous use of different water resources types to reduce stress on existing sources
Strategy:Explore different options for alternative uses of different types of water resources
Promote efficiency and reduce dependency on stressed water resources
Water Related Disaster Risk Reduction, Preparedness and Response
Adopt a national Disaster Risk Reduction, Preparedness and Response Plan for water resources to introduce measures for preparedness and response as well as reduction of risks and threats from disasters from and to water resources
Strateg : Strategy: Develop national level scientific assessment procedures for risk, threat and hazard determination, as well as preparedness and response needs for water resources
Develop response and preparedness plans for water resources protection and alternative water resources
Improve understanding and awareness on the importance of water resources security and
sustainability
Strategy:
Strengthen existing awareness programmes and campaigns to suit goals for water resources security and sustainabilityy
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Some Points on Adaptation by NWRS
The impacts of global warming on the availability of water resources cannot be avoided as it is a global phenomenon but we can adopt the following adaptation measures:
Construction of more storage dams to capture the higher flows.
As run of the river flows will be lower, larger releases from existing dams will be necessary to ensure that water supply is able to meet demand and to maintain system reliability.
Some Points on Adaptation by NWRS
For states already experiencing water stress, inter‐basin or inter‐state water transfer would be necessary.
More stringent water demand management will be needed in the areas of:
– Irrigation for rice cultivation– Potable water demand
Conclusion
Climate change is here; global warming is an abstract subject about which scientists continue to argue, but in the context of economic development it is important to know how to interpret climate change information p gand to plan the adaptation strategies.
Hydrological data collection programmes must continue in order to provide data for climate change trend analysis and hydrological design parameters for safe and economic design of water resources projects.
Conclusion
The new national water resources policy, lawand institutional set-up will create a conducive and enabling environment to effectively implement IWRM, a tool for formulating appropriate adaptation g pp p pstrategies and plans of action
Adaptation to climate change impact iseverybody’s business as it affects all levels of society – global, national, regional, local, community and individual
