+ All Categories
Home > Documents > paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M...

paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M...

Date post: 21-Sep-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
67
Transcript
Page 1: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

������������� ����������������������������� !��"$# %'&(")�*��+,�-�. /�*� 102"3�4"65 �2#!")�879:������;=<?>@"$AB�2"��C���D�C�E>*������"GF:H���� /�I�������

JCK=L,M,N�OPL,MRQTS�U(VXW2Y=K�Z[U�\^]_L`M�VbaBc:OedfK4L`Z[g)hBK�OigjV�L`U=kml�n=o!L[pqOeksrBZ[Z[gtOiU

oBZ[u4L`v�wyxzZ[UHw*M,{C|�w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Oed�QHd�OiZ[U=d�Z,}

L`U4k:�jU=}DwyOiwyS�w�Z!M,{�h2Z[M�u�Kq��}DOed[}�L`U=km��gPL`U�Z[w�L,v��s��KH��}�OPd[}

� U�OtpTZ[v�}�Oiw���M`{�J�L`gtOX{�M�v�U�OeLqV��=MT}2|BU�\�Z[giZ�}

� OtU=L`g(pTZ[v�}DOtM�U(n���Z[pHOP}�Z,kzk�L,w�ZT� �[�z� d8w�M��=Z[v[V=����� �

W JCM�v�vyZ,}Du=M�U4kqOiU�\�L`S�wyK�M�v�L�k�kHv�Z,}y}8�soBv�n�JCK=L,M,N�OPL,M�QTS�U(V*]2��kqvyM�gtM�\�Oed[L`g2QHd8OtZ[U=d8Z,}��*v�L,U=dfK�V

r!|�Q�| h2MHk�k�L,v�k�QTu4L�d8Z � giOt\�KHw�JCZ�UqwyZ[v[V(cEL,OigCJCMHkqZs¡T¢[£�V�h2v�Z�Z[Uq�=Z[gtw[V(cEo�����¢�¢ � V � QH|¤n=Z[xsL`Otgj�

d[}�S�U�¥2K=}D��n¦\T}j{§d�n¦U4L�}�LHn¦\�M`p

a rBM,¨GL`w��C©`£~ª�ªz�2L`x^�=M`¨«oBv�niV���L`giM^|2giw�M�V�J�|G¡`£T©�� �

¬®­T¯=°^±³²y´q°*µ_²�¶`°¸·�¹�ºH»�¼�ºH½T¾P¿8²

QTK�M�v�w2w�Otw�giZ~��À*Á)Â=ÁÃÁ�ÄTÄTÅPÆsÅÈÇ�Á)ÂCÅ�É�ÊÌË�É�Í�ÁÃÎCÉ�Ï�Ð$Ç=Ñ(ÀÃÆsÉ*À2Ñ$Ç(ÒHÅ

Page 2: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

�������������

K�Z�L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�U u�v�M���giZ[x {�M�v¤w�K�Zsd8M�S�u�giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U���L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�Z�}D��}Dw�Z�x OtU wyK�Zzw�vyM�u�Oed[L`g

��L�d8O�� d1OP}BOtUqpTZ�}Dw�Ot\TL,w�Z,ksS=}DOtU�\sL`U L�kHp�L,U=d8Z,kE}�Z��TS�Z[UHw�OPL,g$Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyM�v�V.wyK�Z¤Z��Hw�Z�U=kqZ,k���L,gixsL,U��=gtw�Z[v

��� � ��� n K�Z1OiUHw�Z�v�xzZ,kHOPL`wyZ2d8M�S�u�giZ,kzxzMHkHZ[g=S=}DZ,ksOiUzwyK�OP}�}�w�S=kH�sd8M�U4}DOP}�w�}*M,{�L`UsS�u�u=Z[v��jMHd�Z,L`UmxzMHkqZ[g

L`U4k Lz}�w�Z,L�kq����}�w�L`wyZzL,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Oed�v�Z�}Du=M�U=}�Z wyMzOiw�n¤c:MHkHZ[g$Z�v�v�M�v�}1L`vyOP}�Z¤{�v�M�x w�K�Z�S�U=d8Z[vyw�L`OtUqw��zOtU

L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyOPd1¨�OiU=kE}�w�v�Z�}�}8n�o!L,w�LsL�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U:Oe}BL,u�u�gtOiZ,k:OtUEw�K�Oe}BOPkqZ�L`giO �[Z,ksd8M�UqwyZ��qw2w�Msu�vyMHkqS=d8Z

LRwyOixzZ!��d8M�UqwyOiUHS�M�S4}8V)kq�HU=L`xzOed[L`gtgi�md8M�U=}DOe}Dw�Z�Uqw�kqZ,}yd8v�Otu�w�OtM�U�M,{2w�K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g#"¸} � g�r2O�$U�M&%�Q~M�S�wyK�Z[v�U

� }�d8OtgigeL`w�OtM�U(V �=L�}�Z,k³M�U�OiU4d8M�xzu�giZ[wyZ¤L,U=kEOiU=L�d[d8S�v�L`w�Z^M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�n K�Oe}�}�w�S=kH�EK=L�}!w�¨*Msu=L,v�w�}��

��L,v�w2� � w�K�Z1u�vyZ,}DZ�Uqw�u=L,u=Z[v � kqZ,L,gP}*¨�OiwyKm}Dw�L,w�Z�Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OiM�U {�M�v�wyK�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,ks}���}�w�Z[xEV�L�}y}DS�xzOtU�\¤wyK=L`w

xzMHkqZ�g$u=L,v�L,xzZ[w�Z�v�}!L,v�Z^d8M�v�v�Z�d8w[V�¨�K�OigiZ ��L`vyw����2kqZ,L`ge}B¨�OiwyK�}�Oix^S�giw�L`U�Z�M�S=}2}Dw�L`w�Z^L,U=kEu=L`v�L`xzZ[wyZ[v

Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�U(n

K�Z�kH�qU=L,xzOPd�L`g)}Dwyv�S=d�w�S�vyZ�M`{C{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w!Z[vyv�M�v�}BOP}�Z,}�w�Oix L`w�Z�k:}DZ'��S�Z�UqwyOPL`gtgi�^S=}DOtU�\sLzgiOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k

�1L`gtxsL`U)�4giw�Z�v2L`U=kmd8M�xzu4L`v�Z�k ¨�OiwyKRwyK=L`w2M`{�L`U:S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kzMHd8Z�L`U:x�MHkqZ[gjn K�Z�d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\�u�v�MHkqS=d�Z,}

gPL,v�\�Z�d�K=L`U�\�Z,}BOtU:w�K�Z�}Dwyv�S=d�w�S�vyZ¤M`{�wyK�Z¤Z[vyv�M�v*� d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U+�=Z�gPk�n � M�v2Z���L`xzu�gtZTVqZ�v�v�M�v1d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyOiM�U=}

¨�OiwyK�M�u�u.M~}DOtw�ZE}�Oi\�U=}¤OiU�wyK�Zz¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U-L,U=k�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU-u=L`vyw¤M`{_w�K�ZRx�MHkqZ[gC�=L�}�OiU L`vyZsd[L,S=}DZ,k��H�

¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}*{�Z[Z,kq�4L�d.-�}�n

K�Z�{�S�gig � � � xzZ�w�K�MHksOP}BS=}�Z,k:w�M L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�Z1p�L`v�OtM�S=}!xzMHkHZ[g��§\�Z[U�Z[v�L,w�Z,ks}D�HUHw�K�Z[wyOPd1MHd8Z,L`U�OPd

k�L,w�Lz}�Z[w�}�OiUHw�M^w�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g OiU L`UEOPkHZ[UqwyOPd[L,g��§w�¨�OiU {�v�L`xzZ[¨�M�v/-�n K�Z�L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyZ,ksk�L`w�Lz}DZ�w�}

OiU4d8giS=kHZ¤w�K�Z�}DZ�LR}�S�vD{§L�d8Z�w�Z�xzu=Z[v�L,w�S�vyZ¤L,U=kELsd8M�x^��OtU=L`wyOiM�UsM,{*¨@L[pTZ¤pTZ[gtMHd8OiwyOiZ,}�L,U=k³wyK�Z[vyxzMHd8giOtU�Z

kqZ[u�w�K®L`U�M�xsL,gi�Tn10ÃOiw�KEwyK�Z � � � V.wyK�Z�xzMHkqZ�g�"¸}*{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*� L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U d8��d�giZ1OP}!L,��giZ�w�MsZ,}�w�Oix L`w�Z

d8M�v�v�Z�d8w�gt�Ew�K�Zzu�K=L�}�Z:L,U=k-L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ^M`{_w�K�Z��=L�}�OPd � r�Q � MT}yd8OigtgPL`wyOiM�U ¨�K�OtgiZzS4}DOiU�\EpTZ[v��:{�Z[¨

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�n K�Oe}�OtU=d8giS4kqZ,}�L^}DZ[w2M`{CM��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}�wyK=L`w2M�U�gi�md8M,pTZ[v2L^}DOiU�\�giZ�xzZ[vyOPkqOtM�U=L,g(}DZ�d8w�OtM�U

M`{Iw�K�Z1MHd8Z,L,U(V�u�vyZ8{�Z[v�L,��gi�^OiUswyK�Z1Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUR�4L�}DOtU(n

Page 3: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©

� 7E;q�C�H�=�2#��2&����D��� �*�2# /�����������������

´q°���´T¿����y­Tºq¯�½

�jUqwyZ[v�L,U�UqS4L`g(p�L`vyOPL`��OigiOtw�� OtURwyK�Z¤wyv�M�u�OPd[}�OP}�kHM�xzOtU=L`wyZ,kz�q�zwyK�Z � g�rBO�$U�M&%�QTM�S�w�K�Z[vyU � }�d8OtgigPL,w�OtM�U

u�K�Z�U�M�xzZ�U�M�U ��� r�Q � � � }DZ�ZzrBZ�Z[giOtU ²��1´� i° V � ¡�¡��HVI{�M�v�Lsv�Z[pHOiZ[¨ � nsc:MHkqZ[ge}�M`{2p�L,v�OiM�S=}¤kHZ[\�vyZ[Z,}

M`{�d8M�x�u�giZ��HOiw���L`vyZ^d[L`u�wyS�v�OtU�\skqO�� Z[v�Z[UHw1L�}Du=Z,d8w�}�M,{�OiUHw�Z[v�L`U�UHS=L`g�p�L,v�OeL`��OtgiOiw��zOtUEw�K�Z�wyv�M�u�OPd[}!¨�Otw�K

OiU4d8v�Z,L�}DOtU�\^}DS=d�d8Z,}�} � }DZ[Z�� L,w�OX{ ²��@´� i° V � ¡�¡��qV�{�M�v2L�v�Z[pHOiZ[¨ � n

JCM�U=}�OP}�w�Z[U=d�Z�M`{�wyK�Z�OiU�Oiw�OeL`g�}Dw�L`w�Z�¨�Otw�K Lzd8M�S�u�giZ�k:MHd8Z,L`U���L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�Z^xzMHkqZ[g�d[L`U®v�Z�}DS�gtw!OiU

}Dx L`gigtZ[v_}Du�OtU&�jS�u�Z[v�vyM�v�}�L,U=kES=}DZ8{�S�gI{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw�}�-qOtgig�M,pTZ[v!gtM�U�\�Z[v1giZ,L�k³wyOixzZ�}8n�o!L,w�LmL�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�U

¨�OiwyKEL¤{�S�gigt�sd8M�S�u�giZ�k:}D��}DwyZ[x OP}*\~L`OiU�OiU�\zwyK�Z[vyZ8{�M�vyZ¤L,w�wyZ[UqwyOiM�U � ]_L`M�V � ¡�¡`£��$]_L`M�L`U=k h2K�OtgjV � ¡�¡�ª � n

��Z,d8Z[UHw�gt�TV.JCK�Z�U ²��2´� i° � � ¡�¡��qV � ¡�¡�¡ � }DK�M,¨*Z�kRw�K4L`w2w�K�Z }*-HOigig(M,{�w�K�Z^� L`xzM�Uqw2xzMHkqZ[g � J�L`U�Z ²��2´� i° V

� ¡�� � �3Y=Z[��OPL -^L,U=k:J�L`U�Z~V � ¡��T¢ � d[L`U��.Z�d8M�U=}DOekqZ[v�L`��gt� Otxzu�v�M,pTZ,k1�q��L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtU�\1�=Z[w�wyZ[v*¨�OtU=k)�=Z[gPk

k�L,w�L � r�Q�J�| }�L,w�Z[gtgiOiwyZ�� kqZ[v�OtpTZ,k�¨�OiU=k�}*OtU=}DwyZ,L�ksM`{ � giM�vyOPk�L Q~w�L`wyZ � U�OipTZ�v�}DOtw���M��=}�Z[v�pTZ,kz¨�OtU=k�} � V=L�}

¨*Z�gig L�}2}DZ,L¤gtZ[pTZ[g k�L,w�L�{�v�M�x v�M�u�OPd[L,g)��L�d8O � dBwyOPkqZ!\~L`S�\�Z,}�OiUHw�M¤wyK�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,k^xzMHkqZ[g§n � S�v�wyK�Z[vyxzM�vyZTV

w�M�M���w�L`OiU L �=Z[wyw�Z[v2OiU�Otw�OeL`g�}Dw�L,w�Z¤{�M�v1L`U � gCrBO�$U�M^{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w[V�M�U�Z^}DK�M�S�gPk:S4}DZ^L`gtg�w�K�Z¤M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}

L[p�L`OigeL`��gtZ��'{�vyM�x �.M�w�KsMHd8Z,L,UsL`U4kzL`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ��ÃZ,}�u=Z,d8OPL,gigt��wyK�MT}�Z1L`�=M�S�w*wyK�Z!S�u�u=Z[vCwyv�M�u�OPd[L,g.MHd�Z,L`U

� ]_L`M�L`U=k:h2K�Oig§V � ¡�¡`£�� c:OigtgiZ[v ²��@´� i° V � ¡�¡�ª � n

]BZ[vyZ¤¨*Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[Uqw_Lsk�L`w�LsL�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�UE}�w�S=kq�m¨�OiwyK�L,UEOiUHw�Z[vyxzZ,kqOeL`w�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,kRxzMHkHZ[g$S4}DOiU�\

w�K�Z�Z��qwyZ[U=kqZ�k+�1L`gtxsL`U �=giwyZ[v �#� � � � n K�Z�x L`OiU L�kqp�L,Uqw�L`\�Z^M`{�S=}�OiU�\swyK�Z � � � Oe}Bw�K4L`w!Otw!\�OtpTZ,}

Z��Hu�giOed8Oiwygi��wyK�Z¤Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�URM,{�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v_d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z,}8V=¨�K�OtgiZ1w�K�Z1xsL�N�M�v2kqO��sd8S�giw�OtZ,}�OtUEL,u�u�gi�HOiU�\

Oiw2L,v�Z1Oiw�}�d8M�x�u�S�w�L,w�OtM�U=L,g)d8MT}�w2L`U=ksw�K�Z1U�Z[Z�k wyM^}Du=Z,d8O {��zw�K�Z�x�MHkqZ[g��§Z[vyv�M�v@d8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�Z�x L`w�vyO(���sn

��Z�d8Z[UHw�u�v�M�\�v�Z�}�}BOtUEk�L,w�LsL�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�Uz{�M�v!MHd�Z,L`UExzMHkHZ[gP}*K=L�}B�=Z[Z[UEvyZ[pqOtZ[¨*Z�k �H�m|BU=kqZ�v�}DM�U

²��_´� i° � � ¡�¡ � � nRJ�L,U�Z ²��!´� i° � � ¡�¡ � � }�w�S=kqOtZ,k®k�L`w�LRL�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�U:S=}�OiU�\sw�K�Z��1L`gtxsL`U �=giwyZ[v!pHOPLzL

Page 4: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£

v�Z�kqS=d8Z,ks}�w�L`wyZ�}�u=L�d8Z L`u�u�v�MTL�dfK�V.wyMzkqZ�L`g(¨�OiwyK:wyK�Z1OP}�}�S�Z,}�M`{�d�M�xzu�S�w�L`wyOiM�U=L`g)d8M~}Dw_L`U=km}Du=L,v�}�Z�k�L,w�L

d8M,pTZ[v�L`\�Z~n � S -qS�x�M�v�O ²��1´� i° � � ¡�¡�¡ � Z�p�L,giS=L,w�Z,k®w�K�Z�{�Z,L�}�Oi��OtgiOtwD� L`U=k L�d[d8S�v�L�d��EM`{_L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtU�\

}�L,w�Z[gtgiOtw�Z�L`gtw�Oix�Z[w�vy�^k�L`w�L OiUHw�M^L \�giM��=L`g)MHd8Z,L,UE\�Z[U�Z�v�L`g)d�Oiv�d�S�gPL,w�OiM�UsxzMHkqZ[g§V�S=}DOtU�\zL,UEL,u�u�v�M��HOixsL,w�Z

�1L`gtxsL`U+�=gtw�Z[v�L,U=k�}Dx�MTM�w�K�Z[v �({�M�gigtM,¨�OiU�\sw�K�ZzL,u�u�v�M~L�d�K�M`{ � S�-HS�xzM�v�OCL,U=k�cEL,gPL`U�M�w�wyZ�� ��O ���[M�gtO

� � ¡�¡�ª � V�wyK�Z[�^d8M�xzu�S�wyZ,k¤w�K�ZBwyOixzZ��§OiU4kqZ[u=Z[U=kqZ�Uqw�L�}��qxzu�w�M�wyOPd*gtOixzOtw$M,{(w�K�ZB{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v@d8M,p�L,v�OeL`U=d8Z

��� M�U®L�v�Z,kqS4d8Z,k:}�w�L,w�Z�}�u=L�d�Z¤¨�K�OtgiZ�d�L`v�vy�qOtU�\^w�K�Z1xzMHkqZ�g(M�UEw�K�Z�{�S�gtg(\�v�Oek�n��CZ[v�vyM�U ²��2´� i° � � ¡�¡�¡ �

L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�Z�kz}�L,w�Z[gtgiOiwyZ�k�L`w�L OiUHw�M�L u�vyOixzOtw�Oip�Z��§Z���S4L`w�OtM�U^xzMHkqZ[g(¨�Otw�Kmw�K�Z � � � M�U®L vyZ,kqS=d8Z�kR}�w�L,w�Z

}Du4L�d8ZTn K�Z[�:{�M�S�U4k w�K=L,w¤wyK�OP} � � � ¨@L�}�Z��sd8OtZ[UHwBOtU wyv�L`U4} {�Z[vyv�OiU�\:w�K�Z OtUq{�M�vyxsL`wyOiM�U:{�vyM�x w�K�Z

}DS�vD{§L�d�Z��jK�Z[Oi\�Kqw�M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}�w�M^w�K�Z¤kHZ[Z[usMHd8Z,L,U(n

�jU wyK�OP}1}DwyS=kq�TV)¨*Z�d8M�x�u�S�w�Z�wyK�Z ��L,gixsL,UE\TL,OiU�M�U�w�K�Z�{�S�gtg*}�u=L�d�Z M,{2w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,kExzMHkqZ�g

L`U4k d8M�U=kqS=d�w1}DZ[pTZ�v�L`g���OekqZ[UHw�Oed[L`g(w�¨�OiU� Z��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[Uqw�}8n � S�v1OiUHw�Z[UHw�OtM�UsK�Z[vyZ�OP}BwyMzZ��Hu�giM�v�Z � r1Q �

k�L,w�L:L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�UES=}DOtU�\ � � � M�U�Lm}DOtxzu�giZ�Z[U�M�S�\�K��TZ�wB{�S�gigt�Ed8M�S�u�gtZ,k³U�M�U�gtOiU�Z,L,v1xzMHkqZ[g§n �*�

S�U=kHZ[v�}�w�L`U4kqOiU�\EwyK�ZskqZ�w�L`OtgP}!M`{2K�M`¨ � � � ¨*M�v -�}¤L`U4k w�K�Z�¨�L[� M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4L`g*OtUq{�M�vyxsL`wyOiM�U Oe}

u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyZ,k:OiUswyK�OP}�OiUHw�Z[vyxzZ,kqOeL`wyZ2d8M�S�u�giZ,kzxzMHkqZ�gjVq¨�Z¤K�M�u=Z¤w�M^\TL,OiUmOiU=}�Oi\�KHw�OiUHw�M�wyK�Z¤¨�M�v/-qOtU�\T}*M,{

w�K�Z � � � ¨�K�Z[U L`u�u�giOiZ�k wyMzxzM�v�Z�d8M�x�u�giOed[L`wyZ,k?x�MHkqZ[gP}�n��jUE��L,v�w_���CM`{�w�K�Oe}�u4L`u=Z[v2¨*Z¤Z �qwyZ[U=kzw�K�Z

L`u�u�v�M~L�d�K:w�M^w�K�Z�u�v�M���giZ[x M`{Cu4L`v�L,xzZ[wyZ[v*Z,}�w�OtxsL`wyOiM�U�n

»`°��º� ¾P¯.²�­ � ���=²�� �²�¹,²�¯ ����´��=²�

��L`vyw1�BM,{�w�K�OP}Bw�¨*M��ju4L`v�w1u=L,u=Z[v1K=L�}1w�K�vyZ[Z�xsL`OtU:M��HN�Z,d8w�OtpTZ,}8n K�Z �=v�}�w1M�U�ZTV�}Dw�L,w�Z,kEOiU®w�K�Z

u�vyZ[pqOtM�S=}*u4L`v�L,\�v�L`u�K(V OP}*w�M^\TL,OiUmOiU=}�Oi\�KHw�OiUHw�M�wyK�Z1¨*M�v -HOiU�\~}�M,{CL,U � � � L`u�u�v�M~L�d�KR{�M�v�wyK�Z�d�M�S�u�gtZ,k

MHd8Z,L,U&� L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z }D��}DwyZ[x OiU:wyK�Z¤wyv�M�u�OPd[}�n!QTZ,d8M�U=k�V=¨*Z¤Z ��L,xzOiU�Z_K�M,¨6Z�v�v�M�vBu�v�M�u4L`\TL,w�OtM�U kqO � Z[v�}

�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�U:L¤{�S�gtgi��d8M�S�u�giZ,kzxzMHkqZ�g)L`U=kmL`U:S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kzMHd8Z�L`UExzMHkqZ�g(kqvyOipTZ[Uz�H�z¨�OtU=k:}�w�v�Z�}�}8n K�Oiv�k�V

¨*Z�}�w�S=kq��w�K�Z1M�u�w�Oix L`g�u�gPL�d�Z[xzZ[UHwCM`{�M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}BOiU�w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ�kRd�L�}DZ~n

Page 5: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª

K�Z2u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw*}�w�S=kH� S=}�Z,}C}D�HUqwyK�Z[wyOPd2k�L`w�Lqn*QTS=d�K�}Dw�S4kqOiZ,}�L`vyZB¨�M�v�wyKq¨�K�OigiZ_}DS�u�u�giZ�xzZ[UHw�}(w�M¤x�M�v�Z

u�v�L�d8wyOPd[L,gigi��M�v�OtZ[UHw�Z,ksM�U�Z,}2w�K=L,w�S4}DZ¤vyZ,L`gIk�L`w�LqV�OtUEw�K=L,w!w�K�Z�w�vyS�Z�� }Dw�L,w�Z�K�Oe}DwyM�v�� L`U=k:x�MHkqZ[g)Z[v�vyM�v

}Dw�L`wyOP}DwyOPd[}2L`vyZ -HU�M,¨�UEL,U=kEd[L`Um�=Z^d8M�xzu4L`v�Z�k Z�L�}DOtgi�z¨�Otw�Kmw�K�Z�v�Z,}�S�giw�}�M,{Cw�K�Z L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U(n�cEL`UH�

}DwyS=kqOtZ,}*K=L[pTZ1�.Z�Z[Umd[L`vyv�OiZ�k M�S�w2S=}DOtU�\�v�Z,L,g(M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}�{�M�v ºq¯�¿�­Tº � i²y½ w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g �jMHd�Z,L`UsxzMHkqZ�gP}8V�L�}

¨�L�}!w�K�Z^d[L�}DZ�OtUEw�K�Z�u=L�}Dw!{�M�v�L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Oed�xzMHkHZ[gP} � ZTn¦\�niV(h2K�OigCL,U=k®cEL`gPL,U�M�wyw�Z�� ��O(���[M�giO§V � ¡�¡ � � n

QTM�xzZ�}�w�S=kqOtZ,}!L�k�kqv�Z�}�}DOtU�\ � r�Q � K=L[pTZ¤S=}�Z,k:v�Z,L,gCk�L,w�LqV)L�kqp�L`U=d8Z�k k�L,w�LsL�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�UsxzZ[wyK�MHk�}�V

L`U4kEd8M�xzu�giZ[wyZ!MHd8Z,L,U xzMHkHZ[gP}�V���S�w!u�vyZ,}�d�v�Oi�=Z,ks¨�OiU=k�} � ZTn¦\�niV �*Z[K�v�OtU�\�Z�v ²��2´� t° V � ¡�¡�� �)rB\�MHkqMHd.- ²��

´� i° V�������� � �CZ[v�vyM�U ²��@´� i° V � ¡�¡�¡ � � S -qS�x�M�v�O ²���´� i° V � ¡�¡�¡ � n�QTOtxzu�giZ2k�L`w�L^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U^xzZ[wyK�MHkqM�gtM�\�OiZ,}

K=L[pTZ2�.Z�Z[UsL`u�u�giOtZ,k?¨�Otw�KzOtUqwyZ[v�x�Z,kqOPL,w�Z@d8M�S�u�giZ,k x�MHkqZ[gP}�wyM�L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�Z�vyZ,L`g�k�L`w�L � ZTn¦\�niV�JCK�Z[U ²��*´� t° V

� ¡�¡��HV � ¡�¡�¡ � n

QTw�S4kqOiZ,}*¨�Otw�K L�kqp�L`U4d8Z,k:k�L`w�L^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�Um}D��}DwyZ[xs}�L`U=ksOiUHw�Z[vyxzZ,kqOeL`w�Z_d8M�S�u�giZ�k x�MHkqZ[gP}*wyK=L`w

K=L[pTZ�S=}�Z,k?vyZ,L`g4k�L`w�LqVT¨�K�OigtZ�p�L`giS4L`��gtZTVHL`v�Z2}�w�Otgig=L,w*LB{§L,Oiv�gt�1u�v�Z[gtOixzOtU=L`vy�1}Dw�L`\�Z � �*Z[U�U�Z[w�w ²��C´� t° V � ¡�¡��qV

������� �$�=Z[Z ²���´� i° V ������� � n � M�v�Z ��L,xzu�giZ~V.�=Z[Z ²��2´� i° � ������� � S=}DZ�k:L`U®L�k[N�M�OtUqw�x�Z[w�K�MHkzwyMsL�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�Z

xzM�UqwyK�gi���jx�Z,L`U k�L`w�L:M`{_}DZ�L'� }DS�v�{§L�d8ZzK�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}¤L`U4k w�Z[x�u.Z�v�L`wyS�v�Z�}8V)L�}1¨*Z[gtg*L�}�¨�OtU=k�}Dwyv�Z,}y}8V${�M�v

QTZ[u�w�Z[x^�=Z[v � ¡�¡ � w�MslTL,UqS=L,v�� � ¡�¡��Hn K�Z�xzZ[w�K�MHk ¨@L�}2L`u�u�giOiZ�kRw�M�}DgtOPkqOtU�\^}DO �,�§xzM�UqwyKROtUqwyZ[v�p�L,gP}*M`{

k�L,w�LqV�{�v�M�x QTZ[u�w�Z[x^�=Z[v � ¡�¡ � w�M^l�S�gi� � ¡�¡�¢~V�OiUmL,UROtUqwyZ[v�x�Z,kqOPL,w�Z2d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzxzMHkqZ[g ¨�Oiw�KmL^}Dw�L`w�Oe}DwyOPd[L,g

kqOeL`\�U�MT}DwyOPd�L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�Z�d�M�xzu=M�U�Z[Uqw�n � M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw�}�¨�Z[v�Z�OP}y}DS�Z,kR{�vyM�x w�K�Z¤gPL�}Dw!x�M�UHw�KsM`{�Z,L�dfK }DS=d�K

¨�OiU4kqM,¨GL`U=kmd8M�x�u=L`vyZ,k ¨�OiwyKsw�K�Z L�d8wyS=L`g(Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�URM,{�wyK�Z�}D��}DwyZ[xEVq�4L�}DZ�kRM�U L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�UzvyZ,}DS�gtw�}

p�L`gtOPkEL`w_w�K�Z L`u�u�vyM�u�vyOPL,w�Z^Z[u=MHdfK(n K�Z,}DZ^L,S�w�K�M�v�}B{�M�S�U=k³wyK=L`w_w�K�Z�OtUqwyZ[v�xzZ�kqOPL,w�Z_d8M�S�u�giZ,k:xzMHkHZ[g

K=L�}�L^v�Z,L�}DM�U4L`��gtZ^}*-HOigig)OiUEvyZ[u�vyMHkqS=d8OtU�\zM��4}DZ[vypTZ,kROtUqwyZ[v�L,U�UqS4L`g�p�L`vyOPL,��OigtOiw��zM`{2Q�Q L`U4kE}DZ,L gtZ[pTZ[g

kqS�vyOiU�\�wyK�Z � ¡�¡�¢�� ¡�� � g)rBO�$U�M�n

�jUEw�K�Z^u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw1}DwyS=kq�TV(¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}1Z[v�vyM�v!Oe}1d8M�U=}�OPkqZ�v�Z,k:wyM:�=Z wyK�Z^}DM�giZ^xzMHkqZ[gIkqZ�� d8OtZ[U=d8�~n

|!}BwyK�Z�w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g�MHd8Z,L`U4}�L,v�Z^gPL,v�\�Z�gi�s¨�OiU=k���kqvyOipTZ[U � h2Oigig§V � ¡���� �C��K�OigeL`U=kHZ[v[V � ¡�¡�� � V(Z[vyv�M�v�}!OiUEwyK�Z

Page 6: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

¨�OiU4k:}Dwyv�Z,}y}BK=L[pTZ�L^\�v�Z�L`w2Oixzu=L�d8w�M�UEwyK�Z�}�Oix^S�gPL,w�Z,k^MHd8Z,L`U®d�Oiv�d�S�gPL,w�OiM�U � �=Z[Z[w�x L�L�L`U4kEl�OjV � ¡���¡ �

QTK�Z�OiUH�=L`S�x L`U=k |BU=kqZ[v�}DM�U(V � ¡�¡�� � � S ²��1´� i° V � ¡�¡�© � ns]!L,M:L,U=k�h2K�Otg � � ¡�¡`£ � L`U=k®c:OigtgiZ[v ²��1´� t°

� � ¡�¡�ª � K=L[pTZ^}DK�M`¨�U w�K=L,w[V$OtU wyK�Z�L`�=}�Z[U=d8Z^M`{@MHd8Z,L`U���L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�Z�{�Z[Z,kq�=L�d - V(MHd8Z,L,U�OPd^k�L`w�L:d[L,U

d8M�xzu=Z[U=}�L,w�Z�{�M�v�Z[v�vyM�v�}COiUzwyK�Z2¨�OiU=kz}�w�vyZ,}�}�n � pTZ�Uzw�K�M�S�\�KmL,UsL`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyOPd2d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw�OP}COiU=d8gtS=kqZ,k

OiU®Lmd8M�S�u�giZ,k:MHd�Z,L`U&� L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ x�MHkqZ[gjV=¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}1Z[v�vyM�v1d[L,U�}�w�Otgig��=Z^u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw1L`U=kEu�vyMHkqS=d8Z

gPL,v�\�Z�}DOtx S�gPL`wyOiM�UzZ[v�vyM�v�}8V=}DOtU=d8Z1K�Ot\�K�Z[v��È{�vyZ��TS�Z[U=d8��p�L,v�OeL`��OtgiOiw���kqM�x�OiU=L,w�Z,}*OtURwyK�Z�L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Z1w�K4L`U

OiUswyK�Z¤MHd8Z�L`U=}�n K�Z¤u�v�M`{�M�S�U=ksZ�� Z,d8w�M`{IM��=}�Z[v�pTZ,ks¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}�Z[v�vyM�v�}�M�Umw�K�Z1u�vyZ,kqOed8w�OtM�Um}*-HOigtg�M`{�L

d8M�S�u�giZ�k x�MHkqZ[g�K4L�}��.Z�Z[UsU�M�wyOPd8Z,kz�H�Rh2v�L`K=L,x ²���´� i° � � ¡�¡�� � n

0 Z �=v�}�w1u�v�Z,}�Z[UHwBwyK�Z^kq�HU=L`xzOed[L`g�}Dwyv�S=d�w�S�vyZ¤M`{@w�K�Z¤{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw_Z[v�vyM�v�}_kqS�Z�w�MswyK�Z�¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}

Z[vyv�M�v_OiU:M�S�v�d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g§V�Z,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,kz¨�Otw�K®L gtOiU�Z,L,v�O �[Z,k �1L`gix L`U��4giw�Z�v � � � � � }�d�K�Z[xzZ~n K�Z

v�M�giZ1M`{IMHd8Z,L`U���L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�Z�d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\�u�v�MHd8Z,}y}BOiUswyK�Z1u�v�M�u=L`\~L`w�OtM�U®M`{Cx�MHkqZ[g�Z�v�v�M�v�}�OP}*OtUqpTZ,}�w�Ot\TL`wyZ,k

�H�sd8M�x�u=L`vyOiU�\�w�K�Z1v�Z�}DS�gtw�}�{�M�v2w�K�Z¤d�M�S�u�gtZ,ksd[L�}�Z1¨�Oiw�KswyK�MT}�Z�{�M�v�wyK�Z1S�U=d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzM�U�ZTn

0 Z^w�K�Z[U�u�vyZ,}DZ[UHw¤wyK�ZzvyZ,}DS�gtw�}1M`{_k�L,w�LEL�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U®S=}DOtU�\:wyK�ZzZ��Hw�Z�U=kqZ,k �1L`gix L`U �=giwyZ[v

��� � ��� n K�ZBxzM~}Dw�{§L[pTM�v�L`��gtZBu�geL�d8Z�}IwyM1xzZ,L�}�S�v�Z2w�K�ZBMHd8Z�L`U�OedBd8S�v�v�Z�Uqw�}IM�v�}DZ,L�}DS�v�{§L�d8Z!wyZ[xzu=Z[v�L`w�S�v�Z

� Q�Q � {�M�vBvyZ,d8M,pTZ[vyOiU�\�w�K�Z � r�Q � d8��d8gtZ1L`vyZ�Z ��L,xzOiU�Z�k �q� d8M�xzu4L`v�OtU�\�w�K�Z�Otxzu=L�d8w*M,{�L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtU�\

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}2L`w_kqO � Z[vyZ[UHw*giM�U�\�Otw�S=kHZ,}8n

�=OiU�Z�L`v1L,U=k³U�M�U�gtOiU�Z,L,v!OiUHpTZ,}�w�Oi\~L`wyOiM�U4}BM`{ � r1Q � kH�qU=L,xzOPd�}B}�K�M,¨�w�K4L`w�kqOP}�w�OtU=d8w2u=L`v�L`xzZ[wyZ[v

p�L`gtS�Z,}�d[L,U x�MHkqOX{��1w�K�Z!d8M�S�u�gtZ,k¤xzMHkqZ[g#"¸}(�=Z[K=L[pqOtM�v�V��=M�w�K ��S=L,UqwyOiw�L`w�OtpTZ[gi��L`U=k ��S4L`giOtw�L,w�OipTZ�gi� � rBZ[Z[gtOiU

²��2´� i° V � ¡�¡�� � n � U�Z1¨@L��swyM Otxzu�v�M,pTZ!M�S�v2xzMHkqZ[g)L,U=kROtw�}*{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w!}�-qOtgig(OP}�w�M^Z,}�w�Oix L`w�Z_w�K�Z d8M�vyv�Z,d8w

p�L`gtS�Z¤M,{*Otw�}�u=L`v�L`xzZ�w�Z[v�}@{�vyM�x M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}8V(L,w!w�K�Z }�L,xzZ¤wyOixzZ1L�}BZ,}�w�Oix L`w�OtU�\�w�K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g)}�w�L`wyZTn

K�Oe}*Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OiM�UzOP}�d�L`v�vyOiZ,k^M�S�w2¨�OiwyK:L,U:Z��Hw�Z�U=}DOtM�UzM,{Cw�K�Z � � � }�d�K�Z[xzZTV~L`U=ksv�Z[gtZ[p�L`UHw*v�Z�}DS�gtw�}�L`vyZ

v�Z�u.M�v�wyZ,kzOiUm��L`vyw!�y��M,{�wyK�OP}�}�w�S=kq�~n

K�Z�}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z¤M,{Cw�K�Z¤u�vyZ,}DZ[UHw�u=L,u.Z�v � ��L,v�w_�*M`{�w�K�OP}2}Dw�S4kq� � OP}2L�}�{�M�gigtM,¨2}8���jUE}�Z,d8wyOiM�Um�HV�¨*Z

Page 7: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

¢

OiUHw�vyMHkqS=d8Z�wyK�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,k:MHd8Z�L`U&� L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ xzMHkHZ[g�S=}�Z,k³OtUEw�K�Z�}DwyS=kq�Tn � S�vyw�K�Z[v_xzMHkqZ[gCkHZ[w�L,OigP}

L`u�u.Z�L`v2OiUm|Bu�u=Z[U=kHO(�s|¤n��jU:}�Z,d8wyOiM�Um©HV=k�L`w�L L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U�xzZ[w�K�MHk�}�L`vyZ���v�OiZ��=�zv�Z�pqOtZ[¨*Z,k VqL,U=kRw�¨�M

Z��Hw�Z[U4}DOiM�U=}BM,{�w�K�Z ��L,gixsL,U+�=giwyZ[v2w�MsU�M�U�giOiU�Z,L`v1u�vyM���gtZ[xs}8V=w�K�Zz� � � L`U4k � � � V(L,v�Z�u�vyZ,}DZ[UHw�Z�k�n

K�Z^xzMHkqZ[g �jZ�v�v�M�v!d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z�Oe}�d�M�U=}�w�v�S4d8w�Z,kR{�vyM�x ¨�OiU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}�Z[vyv�M�v�}8V(¨�Otw�K®kqZ[w�L`OtgP}Bu�vyZ,}DZ�UqwyZ,k

OiU |Bu�u=Z[U4kqO(�®�!n�QTZ,d�w�OiM�U £ d8M�UHw�L,OiU=}1w�K�Z^Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�UEM,{2w�K�Z {�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v�}�w�v�S4d8w�S�vyZ �H�Ew�K�Z

� � � Z��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}�nCc:MHkqZ[g�� }Dw�L`wyZ¤Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�Us}�w�S=kHOiZ,}*{�M�v2w�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g ¨�OiwyK:w�K�Z � � � L`U4k

kqO���Z�v�Z[UHw�k�L,w�L^}DM�S�v�d8Z�}BL,v�Z1v�Z[u=M�v�w�Z�kROiUm}�Z,d8w�OtM�Umªqn*JCM�U=d8gtS=kqOiU�\ vyZ[xsL`v/-�}CL,u�u=Z,L`v!OtUm}DZ,d8wyOiM�U � n

� 7 5 �B#!")�^��*�����������2

0 Z�S4}DZ�w�K�Z�OiUHw�Z[vyxzZ,kqOeL`w�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,k:xzMHkqZ[g)M`{�l�OiU®L,U=k r2Z[Z[giOtU � � ¡�¡�© � L`U4k rBZ�Z[giOtUEL`U4k l�OtU

� � ¡�¡�© � � N�M�OtUqwygi�sv�Z8{�Z�v�v�Z�kRw�M L�}1lTr�K�Z[vyZ,L�{�wyZ[v � n K�Z^kqZ[w�L`Oige}�M,{�wyK�OP}!d�M�S�u�gtZ,kRMHd�Z,L`U&� L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ

xzMHkqZ�g�L,v�Z^kqZ,}yd8v�Ot�=Z,kROtU®|Bu�u=Z[U=kqO �m|¤n K�OP}BxzMHkHZ[g$Oe}�Z�}�}DZ�UqwyOPL`gtgi�mL?{�S�vyw�K�Z�v!OPkqZ�L`giO �,L`wyOiM�URM,{�wyK�Z

xzMHkqZ�g�M,{¤Y=Z���OPL�-®L`U=k'J�L`U�Z � � ¡���¢ � n K�ZsxsL[N�M�v�}�Oixzu�gtO�� d�L`w�OtM�UEOe}�w�MEwyv�Z,L,w¤Z��Hu�gtOPd8Otw�gi�mM�U�gt�

w�K�Z �[M�U=L,gCkqZ[u=Z[U4kqZ[U=d8Z�M,{2}�Z,Lz}DS�vD{§L�d�Z wyZ[xzu=Z[v�L,w�S�vyZ � Q�Q � M,pTZ[v_L`U®Z��TS=L`wyM�v�OeL`gC}�w�vyOiu(V(¨�OiwyKEw�K�Z

xzZ[vyOPkqOtM�U=L,g }Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z1M`{Iw�K�Z�L�}y}DMHd8OeL`wyZ,k:L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�OPd�{�M�v�d�OiU�\^}�u.Z�d8O��=Z�k�n

K�OP}_d8M�S�u�giZ,k:xzMHkHZ[g$u�v�Z,}�Z[Uqw�}Bw�¨*MmkqO���Z�v�Z[UHw -HOiU4k�}!M`{ � r�Q � M~}�d8OtgigPL,w�OtM�U(V=M`{@w�K�Z^kqZ�gPL[�TZ,k,�

MT}yd8OigtgPL,w�M�v�L,U=k ¨*Z�}Dw�¨�L,v�k,�§u�v�M�u=L`\~L`wyOiU�\Ew��Hu.Z~n K�Z^U=L`wyS�v�Z�M`{2w�K�Z M~}�d8OtgigPL,w�OtM�U®kqZ[u=Z[U4k�}�M�U�w�K�Z

p�L`gtS�Z,}*M`{�w�¨*M -TZ[� u4L`v�L,xzZ[wyZ[v�}�V�U4L`xzZ[gt��w�K�Z1vyZ[gPL,w�OipTZ_d8M�S�u�giOtU�\�d�MTZ��sd�OiZ[UHw��®L`U=ksw�K�Z1}�S�vD{§L�d8Z��§gPL[�TZ[v

d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw���� � lTr � n��jU:wyK�OP}_}Dw�S4kq�TV=¨*Z�d�K�MTM~}DZ���w�Mz�=Z^�HV�L,U=k���w�M��.Z^�HnX¢ � n K�Z,}�Z¤u=L,v�L,xzZ[w�Z�v

p�L`gtS�Z,}2d8M�vyv�Z,}�u.M�U=k:w�M�w�K�Z kqZ[gPL[�TZ,k��jM~}�d8OtgigPL,w�M�v�v�Z[\�OixzZ!M,{Cw�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�gjn K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g(u4L`v�L,xzZ[wyZ[v�}�L,v�Z

\�OtpTZ[UzOtU L`��giZ � n �� ��������

K�ZzxzZ�v�OPkHOiM�U4L`g�}Dwyv�S=d8wyS�v�Z�M`{_w�K�Zzx�Z,L`U-d�S�v�vyZ[Uqw�}�OtU�w�K�Z�S�u�u=Z[v�gPL[�TZ[v�M`{_w�K�Z�MHd8Z,L`U-Oe}

u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyZ,k:M�UHw�Msw�K�Zz]BZ�v�xzOtw�Z!{�S�U=d8wyOiM�U=}1L`U=kEw�vyS�U=d[L,w�Z,k®L`w�LzgiOtxzOiwyZ,kzUqS�x^�=Z[v � � £mK�Z[vyZ � n K�Z

Page 8: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

d8M�S�u�giZ�k x�MHkqZ[g(w�KHS=}��=M�Oige}BkHM`¨�Umw�M�L }�u=L`wyOPL,gigi��M�U�Z�� kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U4L`g)}D��}DwyZ[x�M,{CZ[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UsZ��TS=L`wyOiM�U=}

OiUEwyK�Z ��M�U=L,gCkqOivyZ,d8wyOiM�U�� L,U=k:w�OtxzZ���n K�Z^L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ!{�M�v_w�K�Z �!Z[gtpqOtUR¨@L[pTZ¤OP}����[V�¨�K�OigiZ����{�M�v

�� �� y£� ������� � £^L`vyZ1w�K�Z�L`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ�}�M`{�w�K�Z �4v�}Dw_}DZ�pTZ[Us��MT}�}��q�s¨@L�pTZ�}8n

0 Z�S4}DZ^Ls}Dw�L`\�\�Z[v�Z�k³\�v�OPk V�¨�OiwyK MHd8Z�L`UE¨�L[pTZ^d8MTZ��sd8OtZ[UHw�}���� �� �� ��� �£� ������� � £� (d[L,v�vyOiZ,kmL`w

{�S�gtg(\�v�Oek:u=M�OiUHw�}�V�L,U=k Q�Q d[L,v�vyOiZ,kmL`w2K=L`g {*\�v�OekRu=M�OtUqw�}8n K�Z¤w�M�w�L,g�giZ[U�\�w�KmM`{CwyK�Z�MHd8Z,L,U:�=L�}DOtUEOP}

� ª���� � {�vyM�x � ©���� � wyM������ 0 � V=¨�OiwyKmL?\�v�OPkm}Du=L�d8OiU�\ M,{ � nb��ª��[n K�Z¤\�v�OPkzu=M�OtUqw�}�OtU:wyK�Z�����kqOivyZ,d8wyOiM�U

L`vyZ UHS�x^�=Z[v�Z,kz{�v�M�x � wyME��ªqV$\�M�OtU�\z{�v�M�x�wyK�Z^�=L�}�OiU "b}�¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U®w�MsOtw�}!Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU �=M�S�U=k�L,v��TV�L`U=k

S=}�Z,kROtUROekqZ[UHw�O {��qOtU�\¤wyK�Z1giMHd[L,w�OiM�U:M,{CM��=}�Z[v�pHOiU�\^}DZ,d8wyOiM�U=}8n K�Z�d�M�S�u�gtZ,ks}D��}DwyZ[x }DM�kqOe}�d8vyZ[w�O �[Z,k K=L�}

� ��� � � � �,£ � � ��� kqZ[\�v�Z[Z,}*M,{${�vyZ[Z,kqM�xEn K�Z�wyOixzZ_}DwyZ[usOP} � K�M�S�v�} � }DZ�Z L`��giZ � � n

M�OigigtS=}Dwyv�L,w�Z�w�K�Z�Oixzu=L�d8w�M`{@w�K�Z�MHd�Z,L`U&�§w�M���L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Z�d8M�S�u�giOtU�\ {�Z[Z,kH�=L�d.-�V L`U®S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,k

MHd8Z,L,U x�MHkqZ[g(M�wyK�Z[vy¨�OP}DZ^}�OixzOtgPL,v�w�Msw�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,k:M�U�Z�OP}_d8M�U=}�w�vyS=d8w�Z�k�n K�Z¤{�M�vyxzZ[v_kqOP}�u�gPL[��}Bw�K�Z

}�L,xzZ1w�OtxzZ!Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�UmL�}Bw�K�Z�gPL,w�w�Z�v�¨�K�Z[U®}Dw�L`vyw�OiU�\?{�vyM�x w�K�Z }�L,xzZ1OiU�Otw�OPL,g)}Dw�L`w�Z L`U=kR{�M�v�d8Z�kR¨�OiwyK

w�K�Z¤L,u�u�vyM�u�vyOPL`wyZ�¨�OiU=ks}�w�v�Z�}�}8V=v�Z�d8M�v�kqZ,k {�v�M�x�w�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,ksd8M�Uqwyv�M�g(v�S�U(n K�Z�¨�OiU=km}Dw�vyZ,}�}�S=}�Z,kzOiU

w�K�Z�S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,ksd[L�}DZ1OP}*U�M gtM�U�\�Z[v2L {�S�U=d8w�OtM�UsM`{Iw�K�Z�Q�Q L`U�M�xsL,giOiZ�}8n

|G©��'�§�TZ,L,v!v�S�UmM`{�w�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g)d8M�U&�4v�xs}*wyK=L`w!Otw!L�}D�Hxzu�wyM�w�Z�}*v�L`u�OPkqgt�RwyMzL^giOix�Oiw�d���d8gtZ!¨�OiwyKEL

u=Z[v�OtMHk:M`{�L,�=M�S�w1©Hn � �TZ,L`v�} � � Oi\�n � L � n � Oi\�S�v�Z,} � �®L`U=k � d¤}DK�M`¨«w�K�Z�xzZ[v�OekqOiM�U=L`g�}Dwyv�S=d8wyS�v�Z�M`{CwyK�Z !�"$#&% �

Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}�L,w1L?wyv�L,U=}DOtw�OiM�UEu�K=L�}DZ � }DK�M�v�wygi�mL�{�wyZ[vB�TZ�L`v2ª � L`U=kEL�¨�L,v�x u�K=L�}DZ � U�Z,L,v!�TZ,L`v � � V

v�Z�}Du=Z,d8wyOipTZ[gt�Tn � Ot\�S�vyZ,} � k:L,U=k � Z�}�K�M,¨6wyK�Z1w�K�Z�v�xzMHd8gtOiU�Z�kqZ[u�wyKEL`U�M�xsL,gi�('mL`w!wyK�Z,}DZ1w�¨*M^u�K=L�}DZ,}�n

�jw2d[L`Us�=Z�}DZ[Z�U:d�giZ,L,v�gi��wyK=L`w2w�K�Z[v�xzMHd�giOiU�Z2kqZ[u�wyK:L,U�M�x L`gi�)':giZ�L�k�}�Q�Q |¤n=]BZ[vyZ,L�{�wyZ[v[VT¨*Z1¨�Otgig�vyZ8{�Z[v

w�M1wyK�ZBvyZ,}DS�giw�}�M,{(w�K�ZBxzMHkHZ[g�v�S�U ¨�Otw�K�M�S�w�k�L`w�L¤L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U � L`U4k ¨�OiwyK�M�S�w�L,Uq��Z[vyv�M�v�}�Oixzu=M~}DZ,k � L�}

w�K�Z �yv�Z8{�Z�v�Z[U=d�Z¤}�M�gtS�w�OtM�U(n � K�Z�v�Z8{�Z�v�Z[U=d�Z1}DM�giS�wyOiM�Usu�vyZ,}DZ�Uqw�}�xsL,Uq�^w��qu�OPd[L,g.{�Z,L,w�S�vyZ,}*M`{CwyK�Z � r�Q �

u�K�Z�U�M�xzZ�U�M�U(V=OiU4d8giS=kHOiU�\�Ls}Dw�L,U=kqOtU�\sMT}�d�OigigeL`wyOiM�UmOiU�Q�Q V�¨�OiwyKE}DS��=}DS�v�{§L�d8Z�kq�HU=L`x�OPd[}*u�vyM,pqOekqOiU�\

w�K�Z�x�Z[xzM�vy� � QTS=L`vyZ���L`U=kEQHd�K�M�uq{yV � ¡���� � rBZ[Z[gtOiU ²��@´� i° V � ¡�¡`£ � n

Page 9: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

¡

� Oi\�S�v�Z��:}�K�M,¨2}¤w�K�Z^w�OtxzZ��§giM�U�\�Otw�S=kqZ^L,U�M�x L`gi�Eu�giM�w�}�M,{!wyK�Z vyZ8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z^}�M�giS�w�OiM�U "¸}�Q�Q |¤V !�"$#���� ���

¨�OiU4kE}Dw�vyZ,}�} ��� � V��!Z[gipHOiU��j¨@L�pTZ � ��� � L`U4k �=v�}Dw1��MT}y}D�H�,�§¨�L[pTZ � � a � L`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ1{�M�v1©��R�TZ,L,v�}�n K�Z

Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,giOtZ,}�L`vyZ^d8M�U&�4U�Z,kRwyMzw�K�Z¤Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�UEu=L,v�w2M`{�w�K�Z��=L�}�OiU(n K�Z[OtvBM~}�d8OtgigPL,w�OtM�U:K4L�}!Lz}�w�vyM�U�\

}Dw�L`U=kHOiU�\ d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw[V(¨�K�OigtZ^}DgtOi\�KHw1Z,L�}�w�¨�L`v�k u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U�Oe}1L`gP}�M:u�vyZ,}DZ�Uqw�n K�Z^¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}

L`U�M�xsL,giOiZ�}*gPL`\ }DgiOt\�KHw�gt� �=Z[K�OtU=k:w�K�Z?Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}*OtU:w�OtxzZTV�L`U=kmL`v�Z^}�K�OX{�wyZ,kzw�MzwyK�Z¤¨�Z,}Dw�M,{�w�K�Z

Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}COiUm}Du=L�d8ZTV�¨�Otw�Ksw�K�Z1xsL��qOtx�S�x�gtMHd[L`wyZ,kROtUsw�K�Z�d8Z[UHw�v�L`g u=L`vywBM,{�wyK�Z1�=L�}�OiU(n

oBO � Z[vyZ[U=d8Z�}�OtUEu�K=L�}�ZzL,U=kEOiU®w�K�Z�gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U®M`{�wyK�Z x L �HOixsL�L,xzM�U�\�w�K�ZzQ�Q V �!Z[gtpqOtU&�@L`U=k

��MT}�}��q���§¨�L[pTZ �=Z�gPk�}�OiU=kHOPd[L,w�Z1w�K�Z�Oixzu=M�v�w�L,Uqw�Z���Z�d8wBM,{�MHd8Z,L`U��j¨@L�pTZ kq�HU=L`xzOed[}�M�UEw�K�Z�MT}yd8OigtgPL`wyOiM�U(n

rBM�w�OPd�Z�wyK=L`w_w�K�Z }DgiM,¨�gt�Ru�v�M�u4L`\TL,w�OtU�\sMHd8Z,L`U�OPd¤¨*Z�L�pTZ�}*K�Z[v�Z L`vyZ¤U�M�w!w�K�Z d8M�UHpTZ[UHw�OtM�U=L,g�{�v�Z[Z��§�=L�}DOiU

xzMHkqZ�}8V(��S�w1v�L,w�K�Z�v¤Lsu=L�d.-TZ[w!M,{�xzO �qZ�k³Q�Q %�MHd8Z,L,U&��kH�qU=L,xzOPd�}�x�MHkqZ,}!M`{@w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,k®}D��}DwyZ[x

� lTr ��]!L,M ²��!´� t° V � ¡�¡�© �Cr2Z[Z[giOtU ²��!´� t° V � ¡�¡`£ � n K�OP}!OP}BZ�}Du=Z,d8OeL`gigt�sL`u�u=L`vyZ[Uqw1OtUEw�K�Z�u�vyZ,}DZ�U=d8Z¤M,{

w�K�Z^��M~}�}D�H���j¨@L�pTZ^d�M�xzu=M�U�Z[Uqw�L`giM�U�\sw�K�Z^Z��TS=L`wyM�v1Oiw�}DZ[g {yV.¨�Otw�K®M�u�u=M~}DOiwyZ u�K=L�}�Z,}!OiU®w�K�Z�Z,L�}DwyZ[v�U

L`U4kR¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�Uzu=L,v�w2M`{�w�K�Z1�=L�}DOtU(V�¨�K�OigtZ!w�K�Z �!Z[gtpqOtU&�§¨�L[pTZ!d�M�xzu=M�U�Z[Uqw@}DwyOigig Z��HK�Oi��Otw�}Cu�v�Z,kHM�xzOtU=L`UHw�gt�

Z,L�}Dw�¨�L,v�kzu�v�M�u=L`\~L`wyOiM�U�n

QTOiU4d8Z�w�K�Z^}�S�vD{§L�d8Z��§gPL[�TZ[v1d�MTZ��sd�OiZ[UHw � � OP}1}DZ�w!w�Mm�.Z �[Z[vyMzK�Z[vyZTV(w�K�Z�wyK�Z[vyxzMHd8giOtU�Z�{�Z�Z,kq�=L�d -

kqM�xzOiU=L,w�Z,} � lTr �T]!L,M ²���´� i° V � ¡�¡�© � n�� L,v�\�Z_p�L,v�OeL`w�OtM�U=}*M,{)w�K�Z1Q�Q OtU wyK�Z!Z,L�}DwyZ[v�U^u=L`vyw*M,{)w�K�Z!�4L�}DOtU

L`vyZ�xsL`OtU�gi��kqS�Z�w�MzwyK�Z^}DK4L`gigtM,¨�U�Z,}�}�M`{�wyK�Z�xzZ,L,URwyK�Z[vyxzMHd8giOtU�Z!wyK�Z[v�Z~nB�jUEwyK�Z¤¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�Umu=L`vyw[V�wyK�Z

Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}�L`v�Z�}�xsL`gtgiZ[v�}DOtU=d8Z1w�K�Z�x�Z,L`UzwyK�Z[vyxzMHd8giOtU�Z_kqZ[u�wyKRwyK�Z[vyZ�Oe}*x S4dfK^\�vyZ,L`wyZ[v[n

Page 10: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

� 7E���������C���� ��������������� �"(�.0��B#!

´q°*¬ ²�����­,½T­� ­����

� � ��� ÂCÑ)Ê�À2Ñ(À��*Á�Ç�ÆzÁ@Ê'Ë)ÅÈÇ�Â�Ñ)Í��PÑ�*Ë

QTOiU4d8Z1w�K�Z^Q�Q Z��TS=L,w�OiM�U:Oe}�U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v[V=w�K�Z1Z��Hw�Z[U4kqZ,k+�1L,gixsL,U �4giw�Z�v ��� � ��� Oe}BL,u�u�gtOiZ,kzK�Z[vyZ

{�M�v_L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtU�\�w�K�Z¤M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�n!�jUsw�K�Z � � � V=w�K�Z¤U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`v2xzMHkqZ�g(OP}*giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,ksL`v�M�S�U=k:wyK�Z

d8S�vyv�Z[UHw1}�w�L`wyZ�¨�K�Z[U®Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OtU�\ wyK�Z�u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U�M,{�w�K�Z�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w!Z[vyv�M�v�V(¨�K�OigtZ�w�K�Z^}�w�L`wyZ Otw�}�Z[gX{

OP}2L�kHp�L,U=d8Z,kEL�d[d8M�v�kqOtU�\zw�M�w�K�Z1{�S�gig)U�M�U�giOiU�Z,L`v2xzMHkqZ[g§n2c:OigigtZ[v ²��2´� i° � � ¡�¡,£ � kqOP}yd8S=}y}DZ,kmL UqS�x �=Z[v

M`{@kqOe}DwyOiU=d8w �1L`gtxsL`U �=giwyZ[vBZ �qwyZ[U=}DOtM�U=}2w�MzU�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v1}D��}DwyZ[xs}8n_��kqZ�L,U=k�h2K�Otg � � ¡�¡�¢,LHV$� � }Dw�S4kqOiZ,k

w�K�Z � � � {�M�v2pTM�vyw�Z�� }D��}Dw�Z�xs}*OiUsw�K�Z¤w�OtxzZ�� d8M�UHw�OtUqS�M�S=}�d[L�}�ZTn 0®Z�kqZ,}yd8v�Ot�=Z�wyK�Z � � � K�Z[v�Z1��vyOiZ �=�~V

{�M�gtgiM,¨�OiU�\�w�K�Z1S�U�O �=Z,kzU�M�w�L`wyOiM�U:M`{I��kqZ ²���´� t° � � ¡�¡�¢ � n

K�Z1xzMHkqZ[g OP}*\�OipTZ[UzOtUmkqOP}yd8v�Z[wyZB{�M�vyx��H�

� � � � ��� W � ��� ��� ��� � � � ��� � � � �

]BZ[vyZ � � � � � � Oe}�w�K�Z2�=Z,}Dw�Z,}DwyOixsL,w�Z*M,{)w�K�Z2xzMHkqZ�g=}Dw�L`w�Z�L`wCw�K�Z2gPL�}Dw�w�Oix�Z�}DwyZ[u���V�L,U=k � ��OP}�w�K�Z!}�w�L`wyZ

w�v�L`U=}�OiwyOiM�U�{�S�U=d�w�OiM�U ��}�S�u=Z[v�}yd8v�Otu�w�} ��L �¤L,U=k ��{ ��}Dw�L`U=k?{�M�v ��L`U=L,gi��}DOP} �¤L,U=k �D{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw�V �1v�Z,}�u.Z�d8w�OtpTZ[gi�Tn

� U�Z^L�}y}DS�xzZ�}Bw�K=L,w!w�K�Z S�U4kqZ[v�gt�qOtU�\^U=L`wyS�v�L,g*}���}�w�Z[x Z[pTM�gtpTZ,}2L�d[d8M�v�kqOtU�\zwyMRwyK�Z�xzMHkqZ�g � � � V

u=Z[v�wyS�v��=Z,ks�q�^v�L,U=kqM�x U�M�OP}�Z�� � � � � V

��� � � ��� W � ��� ��� ��� � � � ��� � � � � � � � � � �

]BZ[vyZ��-OP}2LRh_L`S=}y}DOPL,U ¨�K�Oiw�Z!�jU�M�OP}�Z^}DZ��TS�Z[U=d�ZTV�¨�OiwyKExzZ,L`U �[Z�v�MsL,U=k:xzMHkqZ[g �jZ�v�v�M�v2d8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�Z��sV

� � � � � � � ��L`U=k � � � � � � � � � � ! � � �"���#� ! V ¨�K�Z[v�Z � OP}2w�K�Z�Z��Hu=Z,d8w�L`w�OtM�UmM�u=Z[v�L,w�M�v¤L,U=k �#��!�Oe}Bw�K�Z

�!v�M�U�Z,d.-TZ[v2kqZ[gtw�Lqn K�Z�U=L,w�S�v�L`gC}���}�w�Z[x "b}*Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UmOP}2kqZ[w�Z�d8w�Z,ks�q�sM��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}1d8M�Uqw�L`xzOtU=L`wyZ,k

�H�zZ[v�vyM�v�}%$'&� V

( &� ��) ��� ��� � � � ��� � $ & � � � © �

Page 11: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

���

$'&� OP}2L`ge}DMsL�}�}DS�xzZ,kRwyMz�=Zzh_L`S=}y}DOPL,U(V(¨�K�OiwyZ¤OtU:w�OtxzZTVH¨�Oiw�KEx�Z,L`U �[Z[vyMzL,U=kEd8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z�� ��n K�Z

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U {�S�U4d8w�OtM�U ) �zd[L`U®�=ZzU�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`v�L�}�¨*Z�gigjn K�Z�}DS�u=Z[v�}�d8vyOiu�w�} ��w �:L,U=k ��M �EkqZ[U�M�w�Z

��wyv�S�wyK �^L`U=k ��M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U�n � � pTZ[UzwyK�M�S�\�K:wyK�Z�kq�HU=L`xzOed�x�MHkqZ[g � �!L`U=ksM��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U ) �Bx L��^�=Z

U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`v�V=L¤giOtU�Z,L`v�Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyOiM�U M,{Cw�K�Z1xzMHkHZ[g(}�w�L`wyZTV��=L�}DZ,ksM�U:wyK�Z1M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}8V�Oe}�}DM�S�\�KHw[�

� � � � � � � � �/� � � � ��� ��� � � £ �

¨�K�Z[vyZ

�� � ( &��� ) � � � � � � � ��� � ª �

OP}2w�K�Z�OiU�U�M,p�L`wyOiM�U pTZ,d�w�M�v�n K�Z�¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�} � ��{�M�v�wyK�Z¤M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}�L,v�Z�M���w�L,OiU�Z,k:�H�:x�OiU�Otx O �[O U�\w�K�Z�Z �qu=Z,d8w�L`wyOiM�UsM,{�gtZ,L�}�w*� } �TS=L`vyZ�kqOe}Dw�L,U=d8Z1�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�Uzw�K�Z�L,U=L`gt��}�OP}2L`U=kzw�K�Z�wyv�S�Z�}�w�L`wyZTn

K�Z � � � u�v�MHd8Z,}y}!d[L,UE�.Z^kHOipHOPkqZ,kzOtUqwyM w�¨*M�}DwyZ[u=} �� �� ��h2Z[gi��V � ¡�¢[£���hBK�Oig�L`U=kEcEL,gPL`U�M�w�wyZ��

��O(���[M�giO§V � ¡�¡ � �Bc:OtgigtZ[v ²���´� i° V � ¡�¡`£ � ¨�K�Z[U-M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}�L`vyZmL�p�L,OigPL,��giZ L`w�w�K�Z:d�S�v�vyZ[Uqw1wyOixzZ

� �`�

O �I� M�v�Z,d�L�}DwyOiU�\�}DwyZ[u(V

� �.� � � � � � � � W � � � � � ��� W ��� � � �

� � � ��� � ��� � � W � � � ����� W � � � ��� W � � � � � � W � � � ¢ �

OiO � S�u k�L,w�OiU�\z}�w�Z[u(V

� � � � � � � � �/� � � � ��� ��� � � � �

� � � � � � � ��� � � ��� � � � � � ��� � � ¡ �

� � � � � � � � � � � ��� � � � � � � � � � � � � � ��� � W � � � � �

K�ZzxsL,w�vyO(� � � OP}1w�K�Z ��L,gixsL,U \~L`OtU(V�¨�K�OPd�K�vyZ[u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw�}!w�K�ZzM�u�wyOixsL,gC¨*Z[Ot\�KHw¤\�OtpTZ[U®w�M

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}1OiUES�u k�L,w�OiU�\:w�K�Z xzMHkHZ[gC}Dw�L`wyZTV)L`U=k�� ��OP}BwyK�Z^giOiU�Z,L`vyO(�[Z,kmL`u�u�v�M��qOtxsL`wyOiM�UEM`{�wyK�Z

Page 12: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U {�S�U4d8w�OtM�U ) ��n K�Zz}�w�L`wyZ��§w�v�L,U=}DOtw�OtM�U�xsL,w�vyO(� � �¤OP}BwyK�Zz}�w�L,w�Z^w�v�L,U=}DOtw�OtM�UE{�S�U=d8wyOiM�U

� �1giOiU�Z,L`vyO(�[Z,k�L`�=M�S�w_w�K�Z d8S�v�vyZ[UHw!}�w�L`wyZTn K�Z�}���}�w�Z[x u�v�M�u=L`\~L`w�Z�}�wyK�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v1d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z

giOtU�Z,L,v�gi�^OiUmw�OtxzZTVT¨�K�OigtZ1w�K�Z }Dw�L,w�Z�Oiw�}�Z[gX{�Z[pTM�gipTZ,}CU�M�U�gtOiU�Z�L`v�gt�TV�¨�OiwyK � �,n 0ÃK�Z�U:w�K�Z�{�S�U=d�w�OiM�U=} � �

L`U4k ) ��L,v�Z�giOtU�Z,L,v[V�wyK�Z � � � v�Z�kqS=d8Z,}�w�MswyK�Z^d8M�UHpTZ[UHw�OtM�U=L,g �1L`gtxsL`U+�4giw�Z�v[n 0ÃK�Z[U®w�K�Z[v�Z�Oe}BU�M

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U(V=M�U�gt�zw�K�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}DwyOiU�\�}DwyZ[usOP}�u=Z[vD{�M�v�xzZ,k VqL,U=k:w�K�Z�M�u�w�OtxsL`g Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OtM�UzM,{�wyK�Z¤xzMHkHZ[g

}Dw�L`wyZ¤OP}�w�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g.{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw[n K�Z L`U=L,gi��}DOe} �§Z[v�vyM�v_d8M,p�L,v�OeL`U=d8Z � � � OtU:wyK�OP}2d[L�}�Z¤Oe}�wyK�Z�}�L`x�Z¤L�}Bw�K�Z

{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v_d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z ��� � n

� � � ��r � |!�2��Y � o �1|�� cE|!r � ��� � � � � � � �

K�Zs}�w�v�S4d8w�S�vyZsM`{2w�K�Z {�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v^d8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�Zzv�Z[u�v�Z,}�Z[Uqw�}�wyK�ZzOix�u=L�d8w1M,{!wyK�ZsxzMHkqZ[g

kq�HU=L`x�OPd[}BM�U�w�K�Z xzMHkHZ[g��§Z[v�vyM�v!u�v�M�u4L`\TL,w�OtM�U(n � M�v�LzU�M�U�giOiU�Z,L`v }D��}Dw�Z�xEV�w�K�Z Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�U M,{�w�K�Z

{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v^d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z,}�kqZ[u=Z[U=k�}¤M�U-w�K�Z L�d8wyS=L`g�xzMHkqZ[g�w�v�L�N�Z,d8w�M�v��Tn®hBOtpTZ[U L:u�v�Z,}yd8v�Ot�=Z,k

w�v�L[N�Z,d8wyM�vy�TV$wyK�Zsu�v�M�u=L`\~L`w�OtM�U M`{_xzMHkqZ[g �jZ[vyv�M�v¤}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Zsd[L,U-�.Zmd[L,v�vyOiZ,kEM�S�w�OtU=kqZ[u=Z[U4kqZ[UHw�gi�~V

Ojn ZTniV��yM � �jgtOiU�Z~n � 0ÃK�Z[U-giOiU�Z,L`vyO(�,L,w�OiM�U Oe}�kqM�U�ZsL`gtM�U�\ L:u�v�Z�}�d8vyOi�=Z,k wyv�L[N�Z,d�w�M�vy�TV$wyK�ZzvyZ,}DS�gtw�OtU�\

Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�Umu�v�MHd8Z�}�}!OP}!d�L`gigtZ,kRwyK�Z�giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k ��L,gixsL,U+�=giwyZ[v � � � � �$h2Z[gt�(V � ¡T¢[£�� � S�-HS�xzM�vyO�L,U=k

cEL`geL`U�M�w�wyZ�����O(� �[M�gtOjV � ¡�¡�ª � n

K�Z1� � � }ydfK�Z�xzZTV,giO(-TZ�wyK�Z � � � VTZ,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,}�wyK�ZBu�v�M�u4L`\TL,w�OtM�U:M,{)w�K�Z_xzMHkqZ[g }Dw�L`wyZ1L`U=k^xzMHkqZ[g

Z[vyv�M�v�n K�Z�¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}�M,{�w�K�Z�M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}B{�M�v!wyK�Z¤Z,}�w�OtxsL`wyOiM�UsM,{*wyK�Z¤x�MHkqZ[g)}Dw�L`wyZ^L`v�Z^d�L`gPd�S�gPL,w�Z,k

L�d�d8M�v�kqOiU�\swyM � � � � nz�jU®w�K�Zz� � � }�d�K�Z[xzZ~V.K�M,¨�Z[pTZ[v[V w�K�Z�U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v�{�S�U=d8w�OtM�U=} ) �^L`U=k � ��L,v�Z

giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k:L,�.M�S�w¤wyK�Z�u�vyZ,}�d8vyOi�=Z,kE}�w�L`wyZ�pTZ,d8wyM�v ��� V�¨�K�OedfKEOe}!}Du=Z,d8O �=Z,k:u�vyOiM�v�wyMsu�v�MHd8Z�}�}DOtU�\sw�K�Z

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�n K�Z �1L`gix L`Uz\~L`OiU4}�xsL[�^�=Z�u�v�Z,d[L,gPd8S�gPL`wyZ,kzL,U=k:}�w�M�vyZ,kzOiUsw�K�Z¤d�M�xzu�S�w�Z[v@L`U=ksw�K�Z[vyZ

OP}*U�M?{�Z[Z�kq�=L�d.-^M`{CwyK�Z1S�u k�L`wyZ,kRxzMHkHZ[g(}�w�L`wyZ,}*M�Umw�K�Z1Z,}�w�OtxsL`wyOiM�U�M`{ � � n

K�Z�� � � }ydfK�Z[xzZ2OP}�M`{�w�Z�URS4}DZ,kzw�M�L[pTM�OekRkHO � d8S�giwyOiZ,}�wyK=L`w_L`vyOP}DZ!{�vyM�x�wyK�Z¤U�Z�Z,k?{�M�v2v�Z�u.Z�L`w�Z�k

UHS�xzZ[vyOPd[L,g(kqO���Z�v�Z[UHw�OeL`w�OtM�UsM`{�wyK�Z�}�w�L`wyZ¤wyv�L`U4}DOiwyOiM�U:{�S�U=d8wyOiM�U � ��n � S�v!xsL,OiUsu�S�vyu=MT}DZ�OtU:S=}�OiU�\�Oiw

Page 13: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ©

{�M�v_w�K�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw2}Dw�S4kq�:Oe}�wyM M���w�L,OiU®L�}_d8giZ,L,v2L u�Oed8w�S�vyZ�L�}Bu=MT}y}DOt��giZ�M,{Cw�K�Z�Z�� Z,d8w�}�M,{�d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\^M�U

w�K�Z¤}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z1M`{�w�K�Z1Z[vyv�M�v!d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U��=Z[gPk n

� U�w�K�Z�M�w�K�Z[v¤K=L,U=k�VCw�K�Zm� � � Oe}�\�Z�U�Z[v�L,gigt�EgiZ,}y}¤}DS4d[d8Z,}y} {�S�g�OiU-L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiU�\mk�L,w�L:w�K4L`U

w�K�Z � � � }�d�K�Z[xzZ1�=Z,d[L,S=}DZ^w�K�Z � �HZ,k:wyv�L[N�Z,d�w�M�vy�:Oe}�M,{�w�Z[UEU�M�w�L�}1d8giM~}DZ�w�MswyK�Z wyv�S�Z�M�U�Z�L�}!w�K�Z

}DZ'��S�Z�UqwyOPL`gtgi�^S�u k�L`wyZ,kRwyv�L[N�Z�d8w�M�v�� � hBZ�gi�(V � ¡�¢[£ � n K�Z[v�Z�{�M�v�Z~V�¨*Z1Oixzu�giZ[x^Z[UTwCw�K�Z � � � }ydfK�Z�xzZB{�M�v

w�K�Z!L�d8w�S=L,g(L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U�Z �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw�}�¨�Otw�KzM��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}8Vq��S�wCS=}DZ!wyK�Z1� � � }�d�K�Z[xzZ�w�M1OiUHpTZ,}DwyOi\~L`w�Z

}D��}DwyZ[xsL,w�OPd�L`gigt�zL,U ��M � �§giOtU�Z � x�MHkqZ[g��§Z[vyv�M�v2u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U OtU:w�K�Z�L`�4}DZ[U=d�Z�M`{�M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}8n1�jUmw�K�Z

u�vyZ,}DZ[UHw_}DZ,d8wyOiM�U(V�¨*Z�S=}DZ�w�K�Z[vyZ8{�M�vyZ � �=n � ¢ � w�M�d8M�x�u�S�w�Z1wyK�Z¤Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�URM,{�w�K�Z�Z[v�vyM�v_d8M,p�L,v�OeL`U=d8Z�}8V

¨�OiwyK:wyK�Z¤xzMHkHZ[g(xsL`wyv�O � � ��\�OipTZ[Um�q�swyK�Z¤gtOiU�Z,L,v�O �,L`wyOiM�UsM,{ � �¤L,�=M�S�w1w�K�Z¤v�Z�{�Z[v�Z[U4d8Z1}DM�giS�wyOiM�UEM`{

� Ot\�n � n

»`°�� �y­B¿�­T¶�´8¾P´T¯�¿8²y¹

� � c � o � ��� � �2� � ��J � �C|!�2��|!r�J � �

K�Z!xzM~}Dw@}DZ[pTZ[vyZ!Z[vyv�M�v�}*OiUzwyv�M�u�OPd[L,g��§MHd8Z,L,URu�v�Z,kqOed8w�OtM�Us}�Z[Z[x w�M^L,v�OP}�Z!{�v�M�x ¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}�Z[v�vyM�v�}

� �=Z�Z[w�xsL�L L,U=kEl�OjV � ¡���¡ �ChBv�L`K=L,x ²��_´� i° V � ¡�¡�� ��]_L`MsL,U=k h2K�Oig§V � ¡�¡`£���c:OtgigiZ�v ²��!´� t° V � ¡�¡�ª � n 0®Z

OiUHw�vyMHkqS=d8Z~V�w�K�Z[vyZ8{�M�vyZTVqx�MHkqZ[g�Z�v�v�M�v�}2L`w2Z[pTZ[vy� wyOixzZ_}DwyZ[u:�H�sL�k�kqOiU�\^U�M�OP}DZ1wyM wyK�Z1¨�OiU=km}Dw�vyZ,}�}�w�K4L`w

OP}CM���w�L`OtU�Z,k?{�vyM�x�w�K�Z!xzMHkqZ[g4L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z "¸}�v�Z,}�u=M�U=}�Z!w�MzQ�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}�n K�Z!¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}�Z�v�v�M�v*Oe}

}Du=Z,d�O��=Z,k�L�}*OiU c:OigigtZ[v�L`U=k:J�L,U�Z � � ¡���¡ � V c:OigigtZ[v ²���´� i° � � ¡�¡�ª � L`U=k:J�L`U�Z ²���´� i° � � ¡�¡ � � n��jw*OP}Cw�L�-TZ[U

L�}*¨�K�Oiw�Z_OiUzwyOixzZ2L,U=k:h!L,S=}�}�OPL,U&��d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�Z,ksL,U=kzK�M�xzM�\�Z[U�Z[M�S=}COiUs}�u=L�d�ZTn K�Z1Z[v�vyM�v�}*L`vyZ�L�}�}�S�xzZ,k

w�M^K=L[pTZ!wyK�Z�}�L`x�Z!xzZ[vyOPkqOtM�U=L,g�}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z�L�}�w�K�Z�L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�OPd2v�Z,}�u.M�U=}DZ�w�M^w�K�Z�Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,giOtZ,}8n

K�Z1u=L`vyw�Oed8S�gPL,v*{�M�vyx S4}DZ,k {�M�v2Z,L�dfKmd8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw*M,{Cw�K�Z�¨�OtU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}�Z[vyv�M�v!d8M,p�L`vyOPL,U=d8Z1xsL`wyv�O �

���mOP}*\�OtpTZ[Us�q�

� � ��� � � !�� � � � a� �#��! � ������� ����������� a�� � � � ��� �

Page 14: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� £

K�Z[vyZ � � � ��L`U4k � !�� �L`vyZzw�K�Zz¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}¤Z[vyv�M�v�}¤L,w¤giMHd�L`w�OtM�U=} � L`U4k��=V�L`w�w�OtxzZ^}DwyZ[u=}���L`U=k��DV

v�Z�}Du=Z,d8wyOipTZ[gt�TV �#� !IOe}�wyK�Z �!v�M�U�Z,d.-TZ[v1kqZ[gtw�LHV � � OP}1w�K�Z }Dw�L,U=k�L,v�k-kqZ[pHOPL,w�OiM�U M,{!wyK�Zz¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}

Z[vyv�M�v�V�L,U=k�� ��w�K�Z�u�v�Z,}yd8v�Ot�.Z�k:kqZ,d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�UEkHOP}Dw�L`U=d�ZTn 0®Z¤S=}�Z � � � ���¸���s��L^L`U4k�� � � � � � M`{

giM�U�\�Otw�S=kHZTV=L�}�S=}DZ�k �H�sc:OtgigiZ�v*L,U=k³J�L,U�Z � � ¡���¡ � n

c:MHkqZ[g Z[v�vyM�v*Oe}*d8M�U=}Dwyv�S=d�w�Z,k �H�^u�v�M,N�Z�d8w�OtU�\1w�K�Z!¨�OtU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}*Z[v�vyM�v�M�UHw�M�w�K�Z_u�v�M�\�U�M~}Dw�Oed!xzMHkqZ[g

p�L`vyOPL`��giZ,}�n K�Z¤U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v!Q�Q Z��TS=L,w�OiM�U � | � � OP}*giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k ¨�OiwyKsv�Z,}�u.Z�d8w�w�M^w�K�Z1xzMHkHZ[g�"b}*d8S�vyv�Z[UHw

}Dw�L`wyZ�wyM M���w�L,OiUmw�K�Z1xzMHkqZ�g$Q�Q Z[v�vyM�v�}�V�Ojn ZTniV

� � � � � � ��

��� � � � � �

¨�K�Z[vyZ � OP}�wyK�Zz¨�OtU=k�}Dwyv�Z,}y}¤L,U=k � �?Oe}�w�K�Z ¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}¤Z�v�v�M�v�L,w¤w�OtxzZ � �`n � S�v¤x�MHkqZ[g��§Z[vyv�M�v

d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z � Oe}*w�K�Z�U:d�M�xzu�S�w�Z,k?{�vyM�x ��V=L�}2kqZ,}�d�v�Oi�=Z,k^OiUm|Bu�u=Z[U=kHO(�s�!n

� Oi\�S�v�Zm©�}�K�M,¨2}zxzMHkqZ[g �jZ[vyv�M�v^d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}��=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�U Q�Q L,U=kÃ}DZ[gtZ,d8wyZ,k�MHd8Z,L`Uè@L[pTZ !�"$#���� ��

d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw�}���w�K�Z �!Z[gipHOiU � ��� � V=L`U=kzwyK�Z �=v�}�w2L`U=ksw�K�Z1gPL�}Dw�Z[pTZ�Us��M~}�}��q�sd�MTZ��sd�OiZ[UHw�}CM`{�w�K�Oe}*xzMHkqZ[g

� � a L,U=k � W�� � n K�Z�L,S�w�MHd�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}BM,{Cw�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g�p�L`vyOPL`��giZ,}�Z��HK�Oi��Otw2L }�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z�}�OixzOtgPL,v�wyMzw�K4L`w

M`{Iw�K�Z1¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}�Z[v�vyM�v�Otxzu=MT}DZ�k�nC|Bgig)��MT}y}D�H�,�§¨�L[pTZ1xzMHkqZ�}*L`vyZ¤u=MT}�OiwyOipTZ[gt�zd8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�Z,kz¨�OiwyKsZ,L�d�K

M�wyK�Z[v�V(}DOtU=d8Z¤wyK�Z[�sw�v�L[pTZ[g$OtU:wyK�Z^}�L,xzZ�kqOtv�Z,d�w�OiM�UEL,U=k:w�KHS=}BwyK�Z�¨�OiU=kE}�w�vyZ,}�}Bu�v�M,N�Z,d�w�}�M�UHw�Msw�K�Z�x

¨�OiwyKsw�K�Z1}yL`xzZ�}DOi\�U(nC]BM,¨*Z�pTZ[v[VTxzMHkqZ�g��§Z[v�vyM�v�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}*�.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[UzwyK�Z �!Z[gtpqOtUzL,U=k:��MT}y}D�H�z¨�L[pTZ,}

L`vyZBU�Z[\TL,w�OipTZ~n�rBZ[\~L`wyOipTZ2d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyOiM�U=}*L,xzM�U�\1wyK�Z,}DZ2¨�L[pTZ,}�¨�Z[v�Z2L,gP}DM�M���w�L`OtU�Z,k �H�^c:OigtgiZ[vCL,U=kRJ�L,U�Z

� � ¡���¡ � V(¨�K�M d8M�U=}�OPkqZ�v�Z,ksw�K�Z�¨�OiU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}!U�M�Oe}DZ¤OtUEL,UEZ���S4L`w�M�v�OeL`g�MHd8Z�L`UE¨�L[pTZ1xzMHkqZ�gjn K�ZzQ�Q

d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyZ,}*u=MT}�Oiw�OtpTZ[gi�^¨�OiwyKsw�K�Z �!Z[gipHOiU�L`U4kRU�Z[\~L`wyOipTZ[gt� ¨�Otw�Ksw�K�Z���MT}y}D�H�R¨@L[pTZ,}8n

| �4v�}Dw��jM�v�kqZ�v�L`u�u�v�M��HOixsL,w�Z�u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyOiM�U�V � �=n � ��© � V$Oe}!S=}DZ,k®w�Msw�v�L`U=}j{�Z[v¤wyK�Z x�MHkqZ[g��§Z[vyv�M�v

d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z¤M,{Cw�K�Z�¨�OiU=km}Dwyv�Z,}y}Bw�M^w�K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g#"¸}*M�w�K�Z[v2p�L`vyOPL`��giZ,}�nB]2Z[U=d8ZTV�wyK�Z¤Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,k?{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw��

Z[vyv�M�v�}Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z�OP}2L�d[d8S�v�L`wyZ¤M�U�gi�m¨�K�Z[U:wyK�Z�xzMHkqZ�g(Z[v�vyM�v2OP}�{§L,Oiv�gt�s}Dx L`gig§n2|6u=L,v�w�Oed8S�geL`v2u�v�M���giZ[x

Page 15: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ª

w�K4L`w2xsL[�zL,v�OP}�Z1M�w�K�Z[v�¨�Oe}DZ1OP}*gtMT}�}�M`{Iu.M~}DOtw�OipTZ�kqZ��=U�Otw�Z[U�Z,}�}*M,{ � kqS�v�OtU�\^w�K�Z1u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyOiM�Usu�vyMHd8Z,kqS�v�Z

� ��L,gi\�M`pHOiU4k ²��C´� i° V � ¡���© ����L`vyv�OP}�KzL,U=kRJCM�K�U(V � ¡���ª �=�*M�\�\T} ²��C´� i° V � ¡�¡�ª ��h!L�}Du=L,v�O�L`U=kzJCM�K�U�V � ¡�¡�¡ � n

K�Z�kqOPL,\�M�U=L`g�Z[giZ[x�Z[Uqw�}*M`{ � L`vyZ vyZ���S�Oiv�Z�k:K�Z[v�Z�wyM:�=Z^u.M~}DOtw�OipTZ^L,U=k K=L[pTZ^LsxzOiU�Otx�S�x�p�L`gtS�Z

M�UEwyK�Z�M�v�kqZ[v!M,{ � � ��� wyMzu�vyZ[pTZ[UHwBwyK�OP}�u�v�M���giZ�x {�vyM�x MHd[d8S�vyv�OiU�\�n K�Z^L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�UsZ��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw

v�Z�}DS�gtw�}�}DK�M`¨�UmgPL,w�Z[v2}�S�\�\�Z,}Dw2w�K=L,wBwyK�Z1u�v�M�N�Z,d8w�OtM�U(V�}DM^xzMHkqO �=Z,k�VHOP}�}�L,w�Oe} {§L�d�w�M�vy�Tn

� � � �BQ � � �C| � � r � � �B� � �ÃJ � �C|!�2��|!r�J � � K�Z^M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U�Z[v�vyM�v�d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z x L`w�vyO(� � Oe}�u�v�Z,}yd8v�Ot�.Z�k³K�Z�v�Z^L�}�L:kqOeL`\�M�U=L,g*xsL,w�v�O ��V

� � � � a� � � [VT¨�K�Z�v�Z � ��OP}�wyK�Z�p�L`v�OeL`U=d�ZBM,{(w�K�Z2}Dw�L,w�Z2p�L`v�OeL`��gtZ ���§n K�Z2M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}CL`vyZBvyZ[u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw�Z,k

L�}2xzZ,L�}�S�v�Z�xzZ[UHw�}�� M`{2Q�Q V�L,xzu�giOtw�S=kHZ,}���^M`{Iw�K�Z�MHd8Z,L`U�OPd�¨@L[pTZ,}8V�M�v!L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�OPd!¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}

k�L,w�L � L`w2giM�U�\�Otw�S=kHOiU=L,g(giMHd[L,w�OiM�U=}��=w�K�Z[�sL`vyZ�L,gig(w�L�-TZ[Usw�¨�OPd8Z�L�xzM�UHw�KzO {�U�M M�w�K�Z[v_}Du=Z,d�O�� d[L,w�OtM�UsOP}

\�OtpTZ[U(n

K�ZsM��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}zL,v�ZEd�M�UHw�L`x�OiU=L,w�Z,k��H��¨�K�OiwyZ:U�M�OP}�ZTV�¨�Otw�K w�K�Zs{�M�gigtM,¨�OiU�\®}�w�L`U4k�L`v�k

kqZ[pHOPL,w�OtM�U=}�� ���� � ���¸ª � � ���� � � ���¸��� � ���� � ���¸� � � ���� � ���¸� � ��LHnsrBM�wyZ wyK=L`w�w�K�Z�}Dw�L`U=k�L,v�k

kqZ[pHOPL,w�OtM�U=}�{�M�v2L`gig(¨@L[pTZ1d8MTZ�� d8OiZ�Uqw�}*L`vyZ¤OtURU�M�U=kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U=L`g S�U�Oiw�}8n K�Z1Z��TS�Otp�L,giZ[UHw*M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4L`g

Z[vyv�M�v�}@{�M�vBx�M�v�Z�d8M�UHpTZ[UHw�OiM�U=L`g ��S4L`UHw�OiwyOiZ,} � �[M�U=L`g)d�S�v�vyZ[Uqw�(V�w�K�Z[vyxzMHd8gtOiU�Z1kHZ[u�w�KmL,U�M�xsL,gi�('(V=L,U=k

pTZ[vyw�OPd�L`g=pTZ[giMHd�Oiw���«L`v�Z~� � �� � ���¸����x } � W�� � � � � �¸��x � � �� � ���¸�T¢,ªzd�x�k�L[� � W �© � ��r!� ��|�� � � � � J�|�Q � � �B� � �6J � �I|!�B��|!r1J � � � �

K�Z¤OtU�OiwyOPL,g(Z[v�vyM�v�}2L`vyZ�¨�K�OiwyZ1OiUE}�u=L�d�ZTV�¨�OiwyK:wyK�Z�{�M�gigiM,¨�OtU�\z}�w�L,U=k�L`v�kEkqZ[pHOPL,w�OiM�U=}2L`w1L,gig)\�v�Oek

u=M�OtUqw�}8� � � � ���b¡�� � � ��� � ���b� � � � ��� � ���b�`£�V.{�M�v �� �� �£� � � � ��� � ���b��©qV={�M�v � �� � �� � �� � £�n

K�Z�}Dw�L`U=k�L,v�k-kqZ[pHOPL,w�OtM�U=}B{�M�v�L,gigC¨�L[pTZ^d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw�}!L`vyZzOiUEU�M�U=kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U=L`gCS�U�Otw�}�V$L�}�{�M�v¤w�K�Z

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U®Z[v�vyM�v�}�n K�Z OtU�OiwyOPL`g�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw1Z[vyv�M�v1d8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�Z � � � Oe}!L�}y}DS�xzZ�k:w�MzK=L[pTZ^LzkHOPL`\�M�U=L,g

}Dwyv�S=d�w�S�vyZTV�¨�OiwyK Otw�}$Z�giZ[xzZ�Uqw�}�Z���S4L`g�wyM�wyK�Z�p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z,}�M`{ w�K�Z!}�w�L`wyZBp�L,v�OPL,��giZ�}�L`w � � �q� � � � � � � a� � � �

Page 16: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

�[�

� 7��2���=")&(�Cq�H+,"3���=���q��������q����&(

K�Z��=Z[K=L[pHOiM�v�M`{={�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v�d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z,}$Oe}$M`{ OiUHw�Z�v�Z,}�w3{�M�v�M�S�v�S�U4kqZ[v�}�w�L,U=kqOiU�\�M,{(K�M,¨ k�L,w�L

L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�Us¨*M�v -�}8V�OtUEw�K�Z�M�v��mL�}�¨�Z[gig)L�}!OiU:u�v�L�d�w�OPd�ZTn � M�v�L giOtU�Z,L`v_}D��}DwyZ[xEV�wyK�Z �1L`gix L`U��=giwyZ[v

d8M�v�v�Z�d8w�gt�zZ,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,}Cw�K�Z1{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v_d8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�ZTV�¨�K�OPd�K:vyZ[u�vyZ,}DZ[UHw�}*wyK�Z¤Z �qu=Z,d8wyZ,kzv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}DK�Otu

�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�Uzw�K�Z2{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w�Z[v�vyM�v�}�Vq�=L�}DZ,kzM�UROtU�OiwyOPL,g�S�U=d�Z[v�w�L`OiUHw�OtZ,}8V�xzMHkqZ[g Z[v�vyM�v�}�L,U=kzxzMHkqZ[g kq�HU=L,xzOPd[}�V

L`U4k w�KHS=}!u�v�M,pHOPkqZ�}Bw�K�Z^M�u�w�Oix L`g�\~L`OiU � {�M�v1w�K�Z^M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}8n � M�v¤LzU�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v¤}���}�w�Z[x V�w�K�Z

� � � Oe}�U�Z,L`vygi�zM�u�w�OtxsL`g OiUsxzMT}�w2d8Oiv�d8S�xs}�w�L,U=d8Z,} � ��S�wBU�M�w2L`gtg �=}�Z[Z1w�K�Z�kqOe}�d8S=}y}DOtM�U:M,{�c:OigtgiZ[v ²��2´� t° V

� ¡�¡`£�V � ¡�¡�¡qV�{�M�v!p�L,v�OiM�S=}1}Dwyv�M�U�\�gi�mU�M�U�giOiU�Z,L`v2xzMHkqZ[ge} � n!�jU:wyK�OP}!}�Z,d8wyOiM�U�V.¨�Z�}DwyS=kq�s{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v

u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U��q�mgiOtU�Z,L`vyO(�[Z�kRxzMHkqZ�g�kq�HU=L,xzOPd[}2L�d�d8M�v�kqOiU�\swyM � ¢ � V3OtUEu�v�Z�u=L`v�L`w�OtM�UE{�M�v1w�K�Z^L�d8wyS=L`g

k�L,w�L^L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�UzZ��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}8n

K�Z¤v�L`U=kHM�x�¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}!Z[vyv�M�v�}!L � Z,d�w!w�K�Z�Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UmM`{ � � �H�EL`u�u.Z�L`v�OtU�\sOiU � ¢ � wyK�v�M�S�\�K

w�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g��§Z[v�vyM�v2d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z �sn K�Z¤gPL,w�wyZ[v�OP}�M���w�L`OtU�Z,k:L�d[d8M�v�kqOtU�\ wyMzw�K�Z�Z�v�v�M�vBx�MHkqZ[g(\�M,pTZ[vyU�Z,k

�H� � ��� � L`U=k � � � � n��jURu�v�L�d�w�OPd�ZTVq¨�Z�K4L�pTZ_S=}DZ,kmL�kqO � Z[vyZ[UHw�p�L,giS�Z1M,{��"�1L,wBZ,L�dfKswyOixzZ_}DwyZ[u ��n K�OP}

p�L`gtS�Z¤¨@L�}�M���w�L`OiU�Z,kR�H�zS=}�OiU�\zwyK�Z1M�S�wyZ[v2u�v�MHkqS4d8w � � � � � � � � V�¨�OiwyK�M�S�w_w�L -HOiU�\�w�K�Z�Z��qu=Z,d�w�L`wyOiM�U(V

w�K4L`w2OP}8V=Z,L�dfK � � OP}2L u=L,v�wyOPd8S�geL`v�v�L`U=kqM�x pTZ,d�w�M�v�n K�Z¤w�OtxzZ�� L[pTZ[v�L,\�Z,k Z���Z�d8w�M�UEwyK�Z1Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UsM`{

��� � OP}�L`u�u�v�M��HOixsL,w�Z[gt��w�K�Z�}�L,xzZ1L�}�S=}�OiU�\^w�K�Z�u�v�M�u=Z[v �sVH\�OipTZ�UR�H� � �=n � �B¢ � V�{�M�vBZ,L�dfKswyOixzZ_}DwyZ[u(n

´q°���¯�¿�­Tº � i²y½s¿�´`¹,²

� �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw�}�L`v�Z d[L`vyv�OtZ,k M�S�w �=v�}�w�{�M�v�w�K�Z1S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,ksd[L�}�ZTnC�jUzw�K�OP}�d[L�}DZTV�wyK�Z1w�v�M�u�OPd�L`g�MHd�Z,L`U

xzMHkqZ�g$OtU=d8giS4kqZ,}�U�MzMHd8Z,L,U&� L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z^d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\^{�Z[Z,kq�=L�d -mL,U=k:OP}�{�M�v�d8Z�k:�q�mLzu�v�Z�}�d8vyOi�=Z,kRwyOixzZ

}DZ'��S�Z�U=d8Z1M`{C¨�OtU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}8V�\�Z[U�Z[v�L`w�Z�kR�H�zw�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,kzxzMHkHZ[gjn 0ÃOtw�KsU�Mz¨�OtU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y}BU�M�Oe}DZ L�k�kqZ�k�V

w�K�Z�S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kzvyS�Usv�Z[u�vyMHkqS=d8Z�}�wyK�Z1w�Oix�ZBZ[pTM�giS�wyOiM�UzM`{CwyK�Z1MHd8Z,L,U:OiUswyK�Z1v�Z8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z_}DM�giS�wyOiM�U(n

Page 17: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ¢

K�Z�}Dw�L`w�Z1wyv�L`U4}DOiwyOiM�UR{�S�U=d�w�OiM�U � �1d[L`Us�=Z1¨�v�Oiwyw�Z[Um}��qx^�=M�giOed[L`gtgi� L�}

� � � ����

� � ������� � �

��� �� � � � © �

]BZ[vyZ ����

� v�Z[u�v�Z,}�Z[Uqw�}*w�K�Z�MHd�Z,L`UEM�u.Z�v�L`wyM�v�V�\�OtpTZ[U:�H� � �H}8n � | � � � � | � ¡ � � ������� wyK�Z�L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Oed

M�u=Z[v�L`wyM�v[V�\�OipTZ[UE�H�Ew�K�Z gtOiU�Z,L,v � �.n � |!��� � ��L`U=k ���� �� w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giOtU�\sM�u=Z[v�L,w�M�v[V�\�OtpTZ[UE�H� � �H}8n

� |_� � � � � |!��� � n K�Zz}��qx^�=M�gtOPd!}�S�xzxsL,w�OiM�U:M�u.Z�v�L`wyOiM�U � OiU=kHOPd[L,w�Z,}�w�K=L,w1w�K�Z^}�Z[w!M`{�p�L`vyOPL,��giZ,}2M�U

¨�K�OedfKsM�U�Z¤M`{Iw�K�Z1U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`v�M�u=Z[v�L,w�M�v�}BM�Umw�K�Z�v�Ot\�KHw*�§K=L`U=km}DOekqZ1M`{ � �=n � � © � L�d8w�}*OP}2kqOP}�w�OiU4d8w*{�v�M�x

w�K�Z�M�w�K�Z�vBw�¨*M�}DZ�w�}2L`U=ksw�K=L,wBwyM�\�Z�w�K�Z[v2w�K�Z,}DZ1w�K�v�Z[Z�}DZ�w�}�M`{Cp�L`vyOPL,��giZ,}2}Du4L`U:wyK�Z1Z[UHw�OivyZ�}Dw�L,w�Z }Du=L�d8Z

M`{Iw�K�Z!{�S�gtg�xzMHkqZ�gjn K�Z�gtOiU�Z�L`v�O �[Z,k pTZ�v�}DOtM�UzM,{ � � © � OP}*wyK�Z[U

� � ��� ���� � � �����

� � � ��� �� � � � £ �

� M�v�wyK�Z!{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v2Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UzOtURwyK�Z1S�U=d8M�S�u�gtZ,ksd[L�}�Z¤¨*Z_w�KHS=}�S4}DZ

� � ��� ���� � � ª �

¨�OiwyK:u�vyZ,}�d�v�Oi�=Z,kz¨�OtU=ks}Dw�vyZ,}�}�n K�Z^� � � OiUsw�K�OP}2d[L�}�Z¤}�w�Otgig(S=}�Z,}�wyK�Z!{�S�gig � � V L�}2kqZ,}yd8v�Ot�.Z�kRL,�=M`pTZ~n

K�Oe}�OP}!U�M�w�Z[UHw�OivyZ[gi�m}�Z[gX{ � d8M�U4}DOP}�w�Z[UHw1��S�w�K�Z[giu4}�S=}1OP}DM�gPL,w�Z�L`U=k�K�Ot\�K�gtOi\�KHw!{�S�v�wyK�Z[v1w�K�Zzv�M�giZ^M`{

d8M�S�u�giZ�k p�}8n�S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kskq�HU=L,xzOPd[}COiUz{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v�Z�pTM�giS�w�OiM�U(n

M^w�v�L�d.-sw�K�Z�Z[v�vyM�v!Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�U(V�¨*Z d8M�xzu�S�w�Z1w�K�Z¤Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�UsZ[vyv�M�v_}Dw�L`U=k�L`v�k®kqZ[pHOPL,w�OtM�U(V�O§n¦ZTntV

w�K�Z¤}/��S4L`v�Z�v�MTM�w!M`{CZ�L�d�K:kHOPL`\�M�U=L,g�Z[UHw�vy�zM`{ � � V L`U=ksv�Z8{�Z�v�w�M^Oiw2L�}2w�K�Z1v�MTM�w*�§xzZ,L,U&��}/��S4L`v�Z � �2c Q �

Z[vyv�M�v�K�Z[v�Z,L[{�w�Z[v�n��jUsw�K�Z_S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�kRd�L�}DZ~V�w�K�Z1�2c Q^Z[v�vyM�v�M`{CZ,L�dfK �=Z[gPk�L`w�Z,L�dfKs\�vyOPkzu=M�OtUqw�vyZ,L�d�K�Z,}

L`U�L�}D�Hxzu�wyM�wyOPd¤�=Z[K=L[pHOiM�v L�{�wyZ[v�L {§L`Otv�gt�®}DK�M�v�w¤wyv�L,U=}DOtZ[Uqw1M,{_L {�Z[¨ xzM�UHw�K=}�n K�Oe}¤L�}D�Hxzu�w�M�w�Oed

�=Z[K=L[pHOiM�v2OP}�w�K�Z¤v�Z�}DS�gtwBM,{Cw�K�Z d8M�x�u.Z�w�OiwyOiM�UR�=Z[w�¨�Z[Z[Usw�K�vyZ[Z¤Z���Z�d8w�}�� � O � w�K�Z�MT}�d�OigigeL`wyM�v��mkq�HU=L,xzOPd[}

M`{�w�K�Z!xzMHkqZ[g � � OiO � w�K�Z�}Dw�Z�L�kq�zu�S�xzu�OtU�\¤M,{�Z[vyv�M�v�OiUHw�M¤wyK�Z!xzMHkHZ[g��H� wyK�Z�L�k�kHOiw�OtM�UzM,{�� �!L`w2Z[pTZ[vy�

}DwyZ[u � � L`U=k � OiOtO � UqS�x�Z[v�Oed[L`g=kHOP}�}�Oiu=L,w�OtM�U:wyK=L`w2xzOtxzOtd[}�u�Kq��}DOed[L`g�kqOP}y}DOtu=L`wyOiM�UmM`{�Z[U�Z[vy\��sL,U=k�V=K�Z[U=d�ZTV

Z[vyv�M�v � h2K�Oig ²��@´� i° V � ¡�� � � � S�-HS�xzM�v�O(L,U=k:cEL,gPL,U�M�wyw�Z�� ��O ���[M�giOjV � ¡�¡�ª � n

Page 18: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

�jURwyK�Z¤S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g§Vq¨�Otw�K:U�M?{�Z[Z�kq�=L�d.-z�=Z[w�¨*Z�Z[UsMHd8Z,L`U®L,U=k:L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�ZTV�wyK�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw

Z[vyv�M�v�}@{�M�vBwyK�Z�L,xzu�gtOiw�S4kqZ � �!M`{CwyK�Z �!Z[gipHOiUs¨�L[pTZ1L,U=k � a M`{CwyK�Z �=v�}�w!��MT}y}D�H�s¨�L[pTZ ��S�Oed -Hgi�^v�Z�L�d�K

w�K�Z[Oiv_}DwyZ,L�kq��� }Dw�L,w�Z�gtZ[pTZ[gP} � � Ot\T}�n.£��(V(d � n K�OP}!}yL`w�S�v�L`wyOiM�UEOP}�Z��qu=Z,d�w�Z,km}DOiU4d8Z1w�K�Z�MHd8Z,L`UEOe}!kqvyOipTZ[U !�"$#���%��

�H�zw�K�Z�¨�OiU=kmL`U=ksU�MsQ�Q dfK4L`U�\�Z,}BL,v�Z L`gigtM,¨*Z,kzw�M�{�Z[Z,kz�=L�d -�w�M^w�K�Z�MHd8Z,L`U�OPd�¨@L[pTZ,}*OiUsw�K�OP}2d[L�}�ZTn

KHS=}!w�K�Z�geL`w�wyZ[v!w�¨*MsZ�� Z,d�w�}B�=L,gPL,U=d8Z�Z,L�dfKEM�w�K�Z[v�L,gixzM~}Dw2Z���L�d8w�gt�EL,U=k³wyK�Z�MT}yd8OigtgPL,w�M�vy�:Z�� Z,d�w!OP}

L`�4}DZ[UHwB{�v�M�x w�K�Z�¨�L[pTZ�� d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw�Z[v�vyM�v�}�n1|�w2}�w�Z,L�kq�E}�w�L,w�ZTV�wyK�Z �!Z[gtpqOtUs¨�L[pTZ1Z��qK�Oi��Otw�}2L?{§L`Otv�gi�

\�v�L�kqS4L`g)Z,L�}�wD¨@L`v�k OtU=d8vyZ,L�}�Z!M`{CwyK�ZB{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw�Z[vyv�M�v[V�¨�K�OtgiZ!wyK�Z���M~}�}D�H�z¨@L�pTZ�}�K=L[pTZ1L,gixzM~}Dw2d8M�U=}Dw�L`UHw

{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw2Z[v�vyM�v2M`pTZ�v�xzMT}�w�M`{CwyK�Z1�=L�}�OiU(V=¨�OiwyK:gPL,v�\�Z[vBp�L,giS�Z,}�d�M�U=d8Z�Uqwyv�L`wyZ,kzU�Z,L,vBwyK�Z¤Z,L�}DwyZ[v�Um�=L�}�OiU

�=M�S�U4k�L`vy�Tn

Q�Q {�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw!Z[vyv�M�v�}8V M�U®w�K�Z�M�w�K�Z[v_K=L`U=k V(L`vyZ^kqM�xzOtU=L`wyZ,kR�H�EL^v�Z[\�S�gPL,v!MT}yd8OigtgPL`wyOiM�UE¨�Oiw�K®L

u=Z[v�OtMHk:M`{@L`�=M�S�w1©qn � �TZ,L,v�}8V L�}_}DS�\�\�Z,}�w�Z,k:�H� � Oi\�n � � }DZ[Z L`gP}�Msl�OPL,U�\ ²��2´� t° V � ¡�¡�ª ��c:M�v�M�U ²��2´� i° V

� ¡�¡�� � n K�Z[��L`v�Z�d8M�U=d�Z[Uqwyv�L,w�Z,k�M,pTZ[v�L,gig�OtUzw�K�Z_d8Z[UHw�v�L`g L`U4k Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUz�=L�}DOiU�Vq¨�K�OtgiZ2w�K�Z[OtvCu.Z�L -^p�L,giS�Z�}

giOtZBOtUsw�K�Z1d�Z[Uqwyv�L,g��=L�}DOiU � � Oi\�nq£TL � nC|�w*wyK�Z1w�Oix�Z�¨�K�Z[v�Z_w�K�Z,}�Z1u.Z�L -zp�L`gtS�Z,}Cv�Z,L�dfKzwyK�Z[Otv�L�}��qx�u�w�M�w�OPd

}DwyZ,L�kH�:}�w�L,w�ZTV=L,w ��� � ª��TZ,L`v�}8V�wyK�Z[�sL,v�Z�L,�=M�S�w!w�¨�Oed8Z1L�}�gPL,v�\�Z�L�}�w�K�Z�L�d�d8S�x^S�gPL,w�Z,k�xzMHkqZ[g(Z�v�v�M�v�}

kqOtv�Z,d8wygi��Otxzu=MT}DZ�k M�Umw�K�Z�Q�Q �=Z[gek � U�M�w2}DK�M,¨�U � n K�Oe}�kqO � Z[vyZ[U=d8Z_OiU=kqOed[L`wyZ,}�wyK=L`w2w�K�Z!¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}

Z[vyv�M�v�wyv�L,U=}DxzOtw�wyZ,k w�K�v�M�S�\�K:wyK�Z!MHd8Z�L`U�Oed�¨@L[pTZ,}�wyM wyK�Z�Q�Q OP}�L`x�u�giO �=Z,k��q�zwyK�Z!xzMHkHZ[g(kq�HU=L,xzOPd[}��

��S�w_w�K�Z^�2c QsZ[v�vyM�v�}�OtU�Q�Q L`ge}DMsv�Z�L�d�K®Lzd8��d8giM���}�w�L`wyOiM�U=L`vy�E}DwyZ,L�kH�®}Dw�L,w�ZTV�kqS�Z�w�MswyK�Z��=L`geL`U=d�Z

�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�Uzw�K�Z1xzMHkHZ[g��§Z[v�vyM�v�u�S�xzu�OiU�\�L`U4kRw�K�Z¤kHOP}�}�Oiu=L,w�OtM�U(n

K�Z ��M�U=L,g�p�L`v�OeL`wyOiM�U4}BM`{�w�K�Z�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw!Z[vyv�M�v�}�{�M�v!w�K�Z�MHd8Z,L,UE¨�L[pTZ,}2L`v�Z^d�M�U=}�OP}DwyZ[UHwB¨�Otw�KEw�K�Z

L`U4L`gi�Hw�Oed[L`g�L`vy\�S�x�Z[Uqw�}*�q�mc:OtgigiZ�v�L`U4k J�L`U�Z � � ¡���¡ � w�K4L`w2w�K�Z1{§L�}DwyZ[v �!Z[gtpqOtUR¨@L[pTZ�u�OPd.-�}*S�uEx�M�v�Z

¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}!Z[vyv�M�v�}!M�UEOiw�}!¨�L[�:Z,L�}Dw�¨�L,v�k�V ¨�K�OigtZ�w�K�Z^}�giM,¨*Z[v���M~}�}D�H�:¨@L[pTZ,}!kqMsU�M�w¤L�d[d8S�x^S�geL`w�Z

x^S=dfK�Z[v�vyM�v_kqS�v�OtU�\zwyK�Z[Oiv2u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U ¨�Z,}Dw�¨�L,v�k�V=}�OiU=d�Z¤w�K�Z¤¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}BZ�v�v�M�vBOe}�¨�K�Oiw�Z�OiUmw�Oix�ZTV

��S�w�d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�Z,kE}�u=L`wyOPL`gtgi�Tn K�Z geL`vy\�Z���M~}�}D�H���j¨@L�pTZ¤{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw1Z[vyv�M�v�}!w�K=L,w1MHd[d8S�v�L`w1wyK�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU

Page 19: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ¡

�=M�S�U4k�L`vy�EL`vyZ�kqS�Z1w�M^w�K�Z1vyZ �=Z,d8wyOiM�URM,{�wyK�Z �!Z[gipHOiUz¨@L[pTZTVq¨�K�OedfKsK=L�}BL�gPL,v�\�Z[v*{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w*�§Z[v�vyM�v2giZ[pTZ�g

w�K�Z[v�Z � � Oi\�nH£Td � n

K�Z¤{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v�d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}BZ,}�w�OtxsL`wyZ,kR�H� � � � L`w1w�K�Z�Z�U=k:M`{�ª �TZ�L`v�}_L`v�Z�}DK�M`¨�U®OiU

� Ot\�n�ªHV��q�^¨�K�OedfKzwyOixzZ_L�{§L`Otv�gt�z}�w�Z,L�kq�z}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z1K=L�}*Z�xzZ[v�\�Z,k�n K�Z�d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyOiM�URu4L`w�wyZ[v�U4}�kqOP}�u�gPL[� !�"$#&%��

d8gtZ,L`vygi�^w�K�Z1Oix�u=L�d8w�M`{�w�K�Z�MHd8Z,L,U�OPd!¨�L[pTZ,}���w�K�Z�L,S�w�MHd8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}*{�M�v ��Z�gipHOiUzM�v2��M~}�}D�H�s¨�L[pTZ,}�L,v�Z

K�Ot\�K�Z,}�wCOiUzwyK�Z[Oiv�v�Z,}�u.Z�d8w�OtpTZ2kqOivyZ,d8w�OtM�U=}�M,{(u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyOiM�U � � Oi\~}8nHª�k�L`U=kzª,\ � n K�Z_L`U�\�giZ_�.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[U�wyK�Z

L �HOP}CM`{)xsL��qOtx S�x6u=M~}DOiwyOipTZ_d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U^M`{IkqOe}Dw�OtU=d8w���MT}�}��q�^¨�L[pTZ,}CL,U=kzw�K�Z2xsL`OtUzkHOPL`\�M�U=L,g �ÌL`�=M�S�w

��� � {�M�v�� a L,U=k � � p�}8ns©�¡ � �.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[U � a L,U=k � W�� � }DZ�Z � Ot\T}�n$ª,K-L`U4k�ª,O � �d8M�v�v�Z�}Du=M�U=k�}�w�MEwyK�Z

kqO���Z�v�Z[U=d�Z��.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[UEwyK�Z[Oiv1¨@L�pTZ^}�u=Z[Z,k�}��$ZTn \�niV � � wyv�L[pTZ[gP}_L`w�©�%�¢�M`{�wyK�Z�}Du=Z[Z,k M,{�� a V$¨�K�OtgiZ � W��w�v�L[pTZ[gP}2L`w � %�¡zM`{�� a "¸}_}Du=Z[Z,k�n � UEwyK�Z^L`�4}DZ[U=d�Z�M`{2}�w�MHd�K=L�}�w�Oed¤u.Z�v�w�S�v��=L,w�OiM�U=}8V(wyK�Z,}DZ^d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}

¨*M�S�gPk^�.Z1vyZ,kqS=d8Z�k?wyM^}DK=L,v�um}Dwyv�L`Ot\�KHw*gtOiU�Z,}C¨�K�MT}�Z1}DgtM�u=Z,}�d[L,UsZ,L�}�Oigi���=Z1d�M�xzu�S�w�Z,k¤{�v�M�x�w�K�Z_u�K=L�}�Z

pTZ[gtMHd8OiwyOiZ,}�M`{Iw�K�Z1p�L`vyOiM�S4}�¨@L�pTZ�}�OiUHpTM�gtpTZ,k�n

K�Z�u=MT}�Oiw�OtpTZ�d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}!U�Z,L,v!Z[OiwyK�Z[v1�[M�U4L`gC�=M�S�U=k�L`v��E�=Z[w�¨�Z[Z[UEw�K�Z ��Z�gipHOiUEL,U=kE��MT}�}��q�

¨�L[pTZ,} � � Oi\~}8nHª`ZTVT{ � }DwyZ[x�{�v�M�x�w�K�Z_¨�L[pTZ�v�Z �4Z,d8w�OtM�U^w�K�Z�v�ZTn K�Z1}DgtM,¨*Z[vCu�K=L�}DZ1}�u=Z[Z,k M,{)w�K�Z2K�Oi\�K�Z,}�w

¨�L[pTZ � � W � � vyZ,}DS�giw�}�OiUmL x^S=d�Ks}Dx L`gigtZ[v*u=M~}DOiwyOipTZ1v�Z�\�OiM�UR{�M�vBOtw�}2d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�Um¨�Oiw�KswyK�Z �!Z[gtpqOtUR¨@L[pTZ

� � Oi\�nHª[{ � wyK=L`U�w�K=L,w*OiU�w�K�Z_d8v�M~}�}���d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�Us�.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[U^w�K�Z2giM,¨�Z,}Dw���MT}�}��q�^¨�L[pTZ�� a L,U=kzw�K�Z �!Z[gipHOiU

¨�L[pTZ�� � � � Oi\�n�ª`Z � n

K�Z^MHd8Z,L`U "¸}�wyK�Z[vyxzMHkq�HU=L`xzOed�u�vyMHd8Z,}y}DZ,}1v�Z,}�S�giw1OiU LRwyOi\�Kqw�Q�Q L,S�w�MHd�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U {�M�v¤w�K�Z

¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�Usu=L`vywBM,{C�=L�}DOiU�V�L,U=kR��vyMTL�kqZ[v1}�w�v�S4d8w�S�vyZ1OiUsw�K�Z d8Z[UHw�v�L`g)L`U4kRZ,L�}Dw�Z�v�U:�4L�}DOtU � � Oi\�n=ª�L � n K�Z

¨�OPkHZ^d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U L`vyZ,LzOP}!L�}�}DMHd�OPL`wyZ,k ¨�Otw�K®w�K�Z�geL`v�\�ZRQ�Q {�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw1Z[vyv�M�v1OtUEw�K�Z^Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU �4L�}DOtU

� � Oi\�n�£~L � n K�Z�u.M~}DOtw�OipTZ�d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U:�=Z[w�¨*Z�Z[Usw�K�Z�Q�Q L,U=k �!Z[gipHOiUz¨@L[pTZ�Oe}Bd�M�U=}�OP}DwyZ[UHwB¨�Otw�Ksw�K�Z

MHd8Z,L,U�OPd�¨�L[pTZ,}!".Otxzu=L�d8wBOtU wyK�Z �=U�Otw�Z��=L�}DOtU M�U�w�K�ZzQ�Q �(w�K�Z �!Z[gtpqOtU:¨�L[pTZ^L,U�M�xsL,giOtZ,}BZ���d8OiwyZ,k

�H�RwyK�Z¤¨�OtU=kE}Dwyv�Z,}y}BOiUmw�K�Z d8Z[UHw�v�L`g)�=L�}�OiUEOiU4kqS=d8Z�Q�Q d�K=L`U�\�Z,}B¨�Otw�Kmw�K�Z^}yL`xzZ�}DOt\�UEM�UEw�K�Z�¨�L[�

Page 20: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

���

w�MswyK�Z Z�L�}Dw�V(¨�K�OigtZ^��M~}�}D�H�E¨�L[pTZ,}2v�Z �=Z�d8w�Z,kz{�v�M�x�w�K�Z �!Z[gipHOiUm¨�L[pTZ�M �-wyK�Z^Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUE�.M�S�U=k�L,v��

L`ge}DMzZ�U�K=L`U4d8Z¤wyK�Z Q�Q d�K=L,U�\�Z,}�OiUmw�K�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUE�=L�}�OiU � � Ot\T}8n ª`�®L,U=kEª�d � n2]BM,¨*Z[pTZ�v[VqwyK�Z^��MT}�}��q�

¨�L[pTZ,}_kqOivyZ,d8w�gt�zZ���d8OiwyZ,kR�H�:wyK�Z�¨�OiU4k }�w�v�Z�}�}!L,U=k³wyK�Z[Otv �!Z[gipHOiU&�§¨�L[pTZ1v�Z��=Z,d8wyOiM�UEM �-w�K�Z�¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyU

�=L�}DOiU �.M�S�U=k�L,v�� d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyZ U�Z�\TL`wyOipTZ[gt�:¨�Otw�K®w�K�ZsQ�Q d�K=L`U�\�Z,}1OiU®w�K�Z^Z[UHw�OivyZ��=L�}�OiU � � Oi\�n)ª�d � n

K�Z,}�Z¤U�Z�\TL`wyOipTZ d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}�v�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UHwBwyK�Z¤U�Z�\TL`wyOipTZ!{�Z[Z,kH�=L�d.-zu�vyMHd8Z,}�}!�=Z[w�¨*Z�Z[Usw�K�Z�MHd8Z,L`U®L,U=k

L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ!w�K�Z[v�ZTn

»`°��C­Tº � i²y½z¿�´`¹,²

K�Z � � � OP}!L,u�u�giOtZ,kzU�Z��HwBwyMzw�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ�kRxzMHkqZ�g(w�MzZ,}�w�OtxsL`wyZ!Oiw�}@{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw��jZ[vyv�M�v1}Dwyv�S=d8wyS�v�Z~n

K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g �jZ[vyv�M�v�d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z,} �"�1L`vyZ¤wyK�Z�}�L`x�Z¤L�}@{�M�vBwyK�Z1S�U=d8M�S�u�gtZ,ksd[L�}�ZTV�¨�K�OigtZ1w�K�Z1giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k

Z[vyv�M�v��jZ�pTM�giS�w�OiM�UzkH�qU=L,xzOPd�}IOe}�U�M,¨ \�OipTZ[U^�q��wyK�ZB{�S�gtg � ��M`{ � �=n � � £ � n K�Z_kqO � Z[vyZ[U=d8Z2�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�U wyK�Z

d8M�S�u�giZ�kRL,U=kRS�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,ksd[L�}DZ,}*Oe}*OiUsw�K�Z¤}�w�L,w�Z¤wyv�L,U=}DOtw�OiM�UsxsL`wyv�O(� � n

K�Z¤{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw1Z[v�vyM�v�}�OtUEw�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ�kEd[L�}�ZzL,v�Z�x^S=dfKmgPL,v�\�Z�v!w�K=L,U�w�K�MT}DZ^OiUEwyK�Z�S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,k

d[L�}DZ � � Ot\�n � � n K�ZzZ��Hu=Z,d8w�Z�kR{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w¤Z[vyv�M�v�}!OiU-Q�Q L`U�M�xsL,giOiZ�} � � Ot\�n � L � L,v�ZzM�U�Z M�v�kqZ�v¤M`{ !�"$#&%��

xsL,\�U�Otw�S=kqZ1geL`v�\�Z[v2w�K=L,UEOiU:wyK�Z¤S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kmd[L�}�ZTV=��S�w2w�K�Z }Du=L,w�OiM��jwyZ[xzu=M�v�L`g)u=L`wyw�Z[vyUEM`{CwyK�Z¤Z�v�v�M�v�}

OP} �TS�Otw�Z�}DOtxzOigeL`v � df{yn � Ot\�n�£TL � n K�Z¤d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\^u�vyMHd8Z,}�}�Z,}2d8giZ,L,v�gt�zL,xzu�giO {�� wyK�Z1xzMHkqZ[g#"¸}�Q�Q Z[vyv�M�v�}8n

K�Z^Z[v�vyM�v�}�OtU wyK�Z�MHd8Z,L,U�OPd�¨�L[pTZ^L,xzu�giOtw�S=kHZ,} � � L`U4k � a � � Oi\~}8n � �(V�d � L,v�Z�L {�Z[¨Gw�OtxzZ,}�gPL,v�\�Z�v

w�K4L`UEOiUswyK�Z¤S�U4d8M�S�u�giZ,kmd[L�}�Z � }�Z[Z � Oi\T}�n.£��(V d � L,U=kRwyK�Z[OtvBu=L,w�wyZ[v�U=}2kqO���Z�v!}�S��=}Dw�L`UHw�OeL`gigt�z{�v�M�x wyK�Z

S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,kEd[L�}DZTn1�jUEw�K�Z�gPL`wyw�Z[v�V.�=M�w�K � � L`U=k � a Z[vyv�M�v�}B¨�Z[v�Z }Dw�Z�L�kq�mOiUEw�OtxzZ�L�{�wyZ[v1ª �TZ,L,v�}!L,U=k

OiU4d8v�Z,L�}DZ,ksxzM�U�M�w�M�U�OPd�L`gigt�z{�v�M�x ¨*Z,}�w!w�M�Z,L�}�w[V(\�v�L�kqS=L,gigt�R{�M�v ����L`U=kEL,��v�S�u�w�gi�mU�Z,L,v!w�K�Z�Z�L�}DwyZ[v�U

�=M�S�U4k�L`vy�:{�M�v�� a � � Ot\T}8n=£���V$d � n!�jUEwyK�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,k:d[L�}DZ^L,w!K=L`U4k�V(�.M�w�K ����L,U=k � a Z[pTM�gipTZ1M,pTZ[v2w�K�Z

�=v�}Dw!wyZ[U:�TZ,L,v�}�w�M,¨�L,v�kmL?{§L`Otv�gi�svyZ[\�S�geL`v2MT}yd8OigtgPL`wyOiM�U(V.¨�Otw�KmwD¨�Mz}�Z[u=L,v�L`wyZ�xsL �HOix LqVTOiUmw�K�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU

L`U4k:¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyU:�=L�}DOiU � � Ot\T}�n � �(V(d � n � M�vBwyK�Z �!Z[gtpqOtUR¨@L[pTZTV�w�K�Z�xsL �HOix^S�x�OtU:w�K�Z¤Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�U:�4L�}DOtUEOP}

Page 21: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

gPL,v�\�Z[v[V�¨�K�OigiZ�Otw!OP}2gPL`vy\�Z[v_OiUEw�K�Z�¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyUE�=L�}�OiUE{�M�v!wyK�Z �=v�}�w���M~}�}D�H�E¨�L[pTZTn K�OP}BxsL�-TZ,}2}DZ[U=}�Z

\�OtpTZ[UzwyK�Z�L�d[d8S�x S�geL`wyOiM�U�M`{�Z[v�vyM�v�}2L�}�Z,L�dfKz¨@L[pTZ�u�v�M�u4L`\TL,w�Z,}_L�d8vyMT}�}�w�K�Z��4L�}DOtU(n

K�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U }Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z�M,{*wyK�Z^d8M�S�u�giZ�k:d[L�}DZTV�Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,kz�q�®� � � L`w!wyK�Z

Z[U=kEM`{@�TZ,L`v�ªqV$Oe}1}DK�M,¨�U®OiU � Oi\�n$¢Tn K�Z?{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}!OtU wyK�Z^d8M�S�u�giZ,k®L`U4k w�K�Z !�"$#&%��

S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,k:d�L�}DZ�}�K=L[pTZTV�M,pTZ[v�L`gtgjV=}DOtxzOigeL`v@}Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z,}�¨�K�Z[U®Q�Q OP}�OiUHpTM�gtpTZ,k � d8M�xzu4L`v�Z � Ot\T}�n�¢�L ��d

¨�OiwyK � Oi\T}�n)ª�L ��d � ns��M�S�\�K�gt�®}Du=Z,L -HOiU�\�V$wyK�ZsQ�Q Z�v�v�M�v�}1M`pTZ�v!w�K�Z^Z[UHw�Otv�Z��=L�}DOiU L`vyZ U�Z[\TL,w�OipTZ�gi�

d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyZ,kE¨�Oiw�K w�K�ZzZ�v�v�M�v�}¤OtU wyK�ZzMHd8Z,L,U�OPd^¨�L[pTZ,}!M,pTZ[v¤wyK�Z ¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U u=L`vyw¤M`{_w�K�Zz�=L�}�OiU-L,U=k

u=MT}�Oiw�OtpTZ[gi�md8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�Z,k:M,pTZ[v2w�K�Z�Z�L�}DwyZ[v�UEu4L`v�w�n K�Z�vyZ[gPL,w�OipTZ�gi�s}�xsL`gtg�kqO�� Z[v�Z[U4d8Z,}��.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[UEwyK�Z,}DZ

d8M�v�v�Z�gPL`wyOiM�U=}*L,U=k w�K�MT}DZ1OtU wyK�Z!S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,k^d[L�}�Z1L`vyZ!U�M�w2}�S�v�u�v�OP}�OiU�\�VT�.Z�d[L`S=}�Z1w�K�Z2xzMHkqZ[g �ju4L`v�L,xzZ[wyZ[v

p�L`gtS�Z,}*S=}�Z,kROtURwyK�Z1u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw�u=L`u=Z[v �ÃxzMHkHZ[v�L,w�Z1d8M�S�u�gtOiU�\^M`{ � � ���X¢ � L,U=kRU�M�S�uq¨�Z[gigtOiU�\1{�Z[Z,kq�=L�d - V

Ojn ZTn � � � � ���qOtZ[gPk�L�}Dw�vyM�U�\�OiU �=S�Z[U=d8Z!M,{�wyK�Z[vyxzMHd8giOtU�Z_kqZ[u�wyKRM�U Q�Q n

K�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v!}�w�L,w�OP}�w�Oed[}�M,{Cw�K�Z¤MHd8Z,L,U�OPd!¨@L�pTZ�}8V�M�UEwyK�Z1M�wyK�Z[v2K=L`U=k � � Oi\~}8nB¢�k �TO � V(}�K�M,¨

xsL[N�M�v�kqO�� Z[v�Z[U4d8Z,}*�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�Uzw�K�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,ksL`U=ksS�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�kRd�L�}DZ�}8n K�Z�d8M�S�u�giOiU�\�u�v�MHd8Z�}�}DZ�}�Z[U�K=L`U=d�Z

L`gtg$wyK�Z�d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}�V.Z,}�u=Z,d8OPL,gigt�zw�K�Z d8v�M~}�}���d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}B�=Z[w�¨*Z�Z[U:MHd8Z�L`U�Oed�¨�L[pTZ,}�V�L,U=k:Z[xzu�K=L�}�O(�[Z

L`U � L�}�w*�#0 Z�}Dw_}DZ[Z,}yL[¨ u=L,w�wyZ[v�U(n K�OP}�}DZ�Z,}�L[¨«}Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z1OP}*Z �qu�vyZ,}�}�Z,k �H� U�Z[\TL,w�OipTZ�L`S�wyM �@L�}�¨*Z[gtg L�}

d8vyMT}�}���d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}�M`{CwyK�Z1MHd8Z,L,UE¨�L[pTZ,}�OtU:wyK�Z1¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyUR�4L�}DOtU(V=L`U4k:xzOi\�KqwC�=Z¤vyZ[gPL,w�Z,kzw�M^w�K�Z�x�MT}Dw

S�U=}�w�L,��giZ�d8M�S�u�giZ�k x�MHkqZ1OiUsw�K�Oe}*OiUHw�Z[vyxzZ,kqOeL`wyZ�xzMHkqZ[g � lTr ��}DZ[Z�L`ge}DM � Oi\~}8n � �(V=d � n

� 7E����� /�D�������D����"��2 ¤"(�=�� /"I�C��

0ÃOiwyKsd8M�U�� kqZ[U=d�Z!OiUsM�S�v2}DZ��TS�Z[UHw�OeL`g=Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OtM�U�L`u�u�vyMTL�dfK d8M�U&�4v�xzZ,k�OiU�w�K�Z1u�vyZ[pqOtM�S=}�}DZ,d�w�OiM�U

M�U d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z�u�v�M�u=L`\~L`wyOiM�U�V�¨*Z^d8M�UqwyOiUHS�Z¤wyK�Z OtUqpTZ�}Dw�Ot\TL,w�OiM�U:�H�EL�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiU�\^p�L`v�OtM�S=}1w��qu=Z,}BM,{

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�n K�Z �TS�Z,}DwyOiM�U=}�¨�K�OPd�KR¨�Z¤¨@L`UHwBwyMzL�k�kqv�Z�}�}BOtURwyK�OP} ��x�MHkqZ[g(¨*M�v�gek �zd[L,xzu=L`Ot\�UmL`vyZT�

0ÃK=L,w!OP}*wyK�Z¤xzOtU�Oix�S�x�UqS�x^�=Z[v*M,{�M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}BU�Z[Z�kqZ,kzOiUmM�v�kHZ[vBwyM {�M�gtgiM,¨w�K�Z�Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�UsM`{�L,U

Page 22: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

���

� r�Q � d8��d8gtZ�� 0ÃK�Z[v�Z }DK�M�S�gPk:wyK�Z,}�Z¤M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}!�=Z,}Dw_�.Z�w�L -TZ[Umw�Mzx�OiU�Otx O �8Z!Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyOiM�URZ�v�v�M�v

{�M�v2w�K�Z�MHd�Z,L`Um}Dw�L`wyZ�L`U4k³Q�Q �

0 Z d8M�U4kqS=d8w2OPkqZ�UqwyOPd[L,g��§wD¨�OtUsZ��qu=Z[vyOixzZ�Uqw�}�OiUm¨�K�OPd�K:wyK�Z¤wyv�S�Z�xzMHkqZ[g(K�OP}DwyM�vy�TV(L�}2¨*Z[gtg)L�}BwyK�Z

{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw1L,U=k³M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}8V)L`vyZ�u�v�MHkqS4d8Z,k:�H�:w�K�Z^}�L`x�Z¤xzMHkqZ�gjn K�Z�w�v�S�Z�K�OP}�w�M�vy�EkqO�� Z[v�}�{�vyM�x

w�K�Z vyZ8{�Z[v�Z�U=d8Z�}�M�gtS�w�OtM�U®OiU � Ot\T}8n � L`U=k®�zOiU®wD¨�Mzv�Z�}Du=Z,d8w�}8� � O � L`U®OiU�Otw�OPL,g�Z[vyv�M�v1wyK=L`w1OP}1kqv�L[¨�U

{�v�M�x w�K�Z kqOP}�w�v�Ot��S�wyOiM�UmK=L[pqOtU�\ � � � L�}BOiw�}Bd8M,p�L`vyOPL,U=d8Z¤x L`w�vyO(� ��L,U=k � OtO � xzMHkqZ[g(Z[vyv�M�v�}2kqv�L[¨�U:{�v�M�x

L^kqOP}�w�v�Ot��S�wyOiM�UswyK=L`w2K=L�} � � L�}�Oiw�}2d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z1xsL`wyv�O(��L`U4k:L`vyZ¤Otxzu=MT}DZ�kzL`w2Z,L�d�KE}�w�Z[umkqS�v�OiU�\ wyK�Z

xzMHkqZ�g)}DOix^S�geL`w�OtM�U(n K�Z�M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}_L`v�Z�w�L�-TZ[U:w�¨�OPd�Z¤L^xzM�UHw�KmL`U4kEkqO � Z[v�{�v�M�x wyK�Z¤wyv�S�Z!��}�w�L`wyZ

K�Oe}Dw�M�v��mkqS�Z1wyM Z[vyv�M�v�}�OiUsw�K�Z1M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�UEu�vyMHd8Z,}y}�¨�Otw�Kmd8M,p�L`v�OeL`U=d�Z�x L`w�vyO(� �:n K�Z1xsL,w�v�Oed8Z,} � � � V

� L`U=k ��¨*Z[vyZ¤L,gig�kqZ,}�d�v�Oi�=Z,kzOtU:}�Z,d8wyOiM�Um©,�(n

K�Z�L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�UzZ��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}CL`vyZ�L`gig)d�L`v�vyOiZ,kzM�S�w�{�M�v!©��?�TZ�L`v�}�n K�Z[�s}Dw�L`vyw�{�vyM�x L,U:OiU�Oiw�OeL`g

}Dw�L`wyZ�w�K=L,w1kqO � Z[v�}@{�vyM�x w�K�Z�w�v�S�Z¤OiU�Oiw�OeL`g�}Dw�L`w�Z��q�sK=L[pHOiU�\ LzkqO � Z[vyZ[UHwBu�K4L�}DZ^L,giM�U�\zw�K�Z¤v�Z�{�Z[v�Z[U4d8Z

}DM�giS�wyOiM�U "¸}*gtOixzOtwCd8��d8giZTn��jURwyK�Z,}�Z!Z��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[Uqw�}8V�¨�Z1S=}DZ1w�K�ZB{�S�gig � � � V�L�d[d8M�v�kqOtU�\�w�M � �q}�n � � � � � � � � n

K�Z�d[L�}DZ1M`{IL¤xzMHkqZ[g w�K=L,w�\�Z[U�Z[v�L,w�Z,}*wyK�Z1w�v�S�Z���}�w�L,w�Z1K�OP}�w�M�v��^�.Z�OiU�\�kqO � Z[vyZ[UHw�{�v�M�x wyK�Z1M�U�Z1wyK=L`w�Oe}

S=}�Z,k {�M�v2w�K�Z�L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�UzOe}*K=L`U4kqgiZ,kzOtU:��L`v�w2�y��n

�jU:w�K�Z¤{�M�gigtM,¨�OiU�\zZ �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw�}�V����k�L,w�LsL`w1Ls}�OiU�\�giZ¤u=M�OiUHw!v�Z8{�Z�vBwyMRM��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}�M,{@L`gig�w�K�Z

MHd8Z,L,U�OPd1¨�L[pTZ,}�OiU=d�giS=kqZ�k OtU:wyK�Z¤xzMHkHZ[g�L,wBwyK=L`w �[M�U=L,g�giMHd�L`w�OtM�U(n1QTOiU4d8Z1w�K�Z�xzZ�v�OPkHOiM�U4L`g(}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z

M`{�wyK�Z¤MHd8Z�L`U+�=Z[gek�}BOe}�u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyZ,kRM�UEw�K�Z ]BZ[vyxzOiwyZB{�S�U=d8wyOiM�U=}8V�wyK�Z,}�Z¤M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}!L,v�Z�Z��TS�Otp�L,giZ[UHw

w�M�K=L[pqOtU�\ x�Z,L�}�S�v�Z,ksxsL�}y}BL,U=k:pTZ[gtMHd8Oiw��)�=Z�gPk�}*{�M�v1L^¨�K�M�gtZ¤xzZ[vyOPkqOtM�U=L,g)}DZ,d�w�OiM�U(�*wyK�Z�u�v�M�N�Z,d8w�OtM�U

M�u=Z[v�L`wyM�v!Oe}���O N�Z,d8wyOipTZ � � �§w�M � � L`U=k:M�UqwyM � ¨�K�Z[Umv�Z,}�w�v�Oed8w�Z�k wyMzw�K�Z �=U�Otw�Z�� kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U4L`g(}�S��=}�u=L�d8Z�M,{

OiUHw�Z�v�Z,}�w[n��jUsv�Z�L`giOtw��TVTMHd8Z,L`U�OPd�M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}BkqM^U�M�w�u�v�M,pHOPkqZ�kqOtv�Z,d8w�xzZ,L�}DS�vyZ[xzZ[UHw�}$M,{ ��HnC]BM,¨*Z�pTZ[v[V

OiU®M�S�v�u�v�Z,}�Z[Uqw�V(K�Oi\�K�gi� }DOix�u�giO �=Z,kzxzMHkqZ[g§V ��sk�L`w�Lmd[L`U®�=Z S4}DZ,k®kqOivyZ,d8wygi�mL`U=k }DK�M�S�gPkEu�v�M,pHOPkqZ

w�K�Z[M�vyZ[w�Oed[L`g \�S�Oek�L`U=d�Z�M�U:K�M,¨�wyM�S=}DZ }DS��4}DS�v�{§L�d8Z1xsL�}�}�L`U4kRpTZ[gtMHd8Oiw��^k�L,w�L�OiUmL d�M�S�u�gtZ,ks}D��}DwyZ[xEn

Page 23: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

��©

´q°�� ¾���º ´���²y½�� �º4²!¹��§´���²

� Oi\�S�v�Z �s}�K�M,¨2}�wyK�Z^w�Oix�Z�Z�pTM�giS�w�OiM�UEM`{@w�K�ZsQ�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}�V�¨�OiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�} � V �!Z[gtpqOtU&�j¨@L[pTZ !�"$#���� ���

L`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ�� � L`U4k wyK�Z �=v�}Dw@��M~}�}D�H���j¨@L�pTZ_L`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ�� a {�M�v*wyK�Z1}�Oix^S�gPL,w�Z,k1w�v�S�Z���}�w�L,w�Z1K�OP}�w�M�v��^w�K=L,w

}Dw�L`vyw�}B¨�Otw�K:u=Z[vyw�S�vy�=Z,k:OiU�Otw�OeL`g)k�L,w�Lqn1�jUmM�S�v2w�Z[vyxzOiU�M�giM�\��TV�wyK�Z �² �,²��²�¯�¿8²1¹�­� º �§¾P­T¯ � }�Z[Z � Oi\�n � � OP}

w�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g(v�S�Um¨�Oiw�K�M�S�w1L,Uq�sZ[vyv�M�v�}�Oixzu=MT}�Z,k�V�¨�K�OtgiZ1w�K�Z¤K�Oe}Dw�M�v��sM`{�wyK�Z � 8º�²!¹��§´��D²�¹ Oe}�\�Z[U�Z[v�L`w�Z�k

�H�:L�k�kqOtU�\zZ[vyv�M�v�}Bw�M�w�K�Z�OtU�OiwyOPL`g)}�w�L,w�Z^L`U4k:w�MzwyK�Z¤¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}B{�M�v�d8OtU�\�n K�Z¤¨@L�pTZ �=Z[gek�} � �1L`U=k

� a L,v�Z�U�M�OP}�OiZ[v2w�K=L,UEw�K�ZzQ�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}*�=Z,d[L,S=}DZ�wyK�Z�¨�L[pTZ�d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw�} � qV � �� ��� ������� � £�V L`vyZ

kqOtv�Z,d8wygi�^L ��Z�d8w�Z,kz�H� wyK�Z!¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}*U�M�OP}�Z1¨�K�OigtZ¤Q�Q OP}CM�U�gt�zOiU �4S�Z[U=d8Z�k?wyK�v�M�S�\�Kmw�K�Z1OiUHw�Z�\�v�L,w�Z,k

Z�� Z,d8w�M,{�wyK�Z1¨�OiU=kzZ[vyv�M�v�}��¦}DZ�Z � �.n � |!��� ��� n

0 Z^d�K�MTM~}DZ^w�K�Z^OiU�Otw�OeL`g�}Dw�L,w�Z^M`{@w�K�Z�wyv�S�Z�� }Dw�L`wyZ K�Oe}DwyM�v��EwyMs�.Z^OiU®LskqO�� Z[v�Z[UHw!u�K4L�}DZ^M`{@w�K�Z

� r�Q � d8��d8gtZ�wyK=L`U®w�K�Z¤v�Z�{�Z[v�Z[U4d8Z�}DM�gtS�w�OtM�U "b}BOiU�Oiw�OeL`g)}�w�L`wyZTn K�Z�v�Z8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z�}�M�giS�w�OiM�U � }�Z[Z � Oi\�n���L �

}Dw�L`vyw�}�{�vyM�x LRwyv�L`U4}DOiZ�Uqw1u�K=L�}DZzwyK=L`w�Z[UHw�Z[v�}�OtxzxzZ,kHOiL,w�Z[gt�sL:d�M�gPk���L,U�M�xsL,gi�Eu�K4L�}DZ � � LErBO�$U=L � V

¨�K�OtgiZ�w�K�Z�w�v�S�Z���}�w�L,w�Z�K�Oe}Dw�M�v�� � }DZ[Z � Ot\�n ��L � }Dw�L`vyw�}B{�v�M�x w�K�Z�U�Z��Hw!w�v�L`U=}�OiZ[UHw!u�K=L�}DZ^w�K=L,w1Z[UqwyZ[v�}

Oix�xzZ,kqOtL`wyZ[gi�^L�¨�L,v�x)� L`U�M�xsL,gi�zu�K4L�}DZ �#� g�rBO�$U�M � n � S�v1k�L,w�LzL�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�UzZ��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[Uqw�}*L,gig�}Dw�L,v�w

M�S�w�¨�Oiw�K�w�K�Z!x�MHkqZ[g�"b}�OiU�Otw�OPL,g }Dw�L,w�Z1�=Z[OiU�\¤w�K�Z1}�L,xzZ1L�}*OtUzw�K�Z!v�Z8{�Z�v�Z[U=d�Z!}�M�giS�w�OiM�U � � Oi\�n���L � V�v�L,w�K�Z�v

w�K4L`U:wyK�Z ��wyv�S�Z ��OiU�Oiw�OeL`g }Dw�L`wyZ � � Oi\�n���L � n

»`°�� �§´��D²�²y¹��j¾���´��§¾P­T¯

� � Q�Q oB| |�| |�QH��r�h1� � � � J�| � � r

0 Z �4v�}Dw�u=Z[vD{�M�v�x L`U � � � L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U:vyS�U�¨�Otw�K LR}�OiU�\�giZsQ�Q M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U�giMHd[L,w�Z,kEOiU

w�K�Z Z,L�}DwyZ[v�U®�=L�}�OiU L`w � ��� � 0Gn Msw�K�Z Z��Hw�Z�Uqw2w�K=L,w¤wyK�ZzQ�Q Z��TS=L,w�OiM�U � | � � OiU®w�K�Z^lTr�xzMHkqZ[g

v�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw�}�M � �jZ��TS=L,w�M�vyOPL,g$�=Z[K=L[pHOiM�v2L�}�¨*Z[gtgjVH}DS=d�KmL`UEQ�Q M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�UE}DK�M�S�gekRL,gP}�M �=Z1w�K�M�S�\�KHw2M`{

L�}2L�xzZ[v�OekqOiM�U=L`g }�Z,d8w�OtM�UsM`{�Q�Q xzZ,L�}�S�v�Z�xzZ[UHw�}8n

Page 24: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

�`£

OixzZ1Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�U:M`{�wyK�ZzQ�Q L`U�M�xsL,gi�mL`U=kEw�K�Z^L`xzu�gtOiwyS=kqZ����!M,{*wyK�Z �!Z[gipHOiUm¨�L[pTZ¤M,pTZ[v_©��

�TZ,L,v�}2L`v�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UqwyZ,kzOiU � Ot\T}�n�¡�LqV��(n � � � L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�UmkqMTZ,}!v�Z�d8M,pTZ[v�w�K�Z�u�K=L�}DZ�OiUH{�M�v�x L`w�OtM�UsM`{ !�"$#���%��

w�K�Z¤w�vyS�Z�� }Dw�L`w�Z�K�OP}�w�M�v��s¨�OiwyKRwyK�Z¤OtU�OiwyOPL,g)}Dw�L,w�Z }Dw�L,v�wyOiU�\�{�v�M�x L�kqO � Z[vyZ[Uqw�u�K=L�}�Z � d�M�xzu=L,v�Z � Ot\�n=¡�L

¨�OiwyK � Oi\�n ��L � n K�Z^kqOeL`\�M�U=L,g�Z�giZ[xzZ�Uqw�}*M`{�wyK�Z¤{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v�d8M,p�L`vyOPL,U=d8Z�xsL,w�v�O � � � � k�L�}DK�Z�k �

L`U4k L,U=L`gt��}�OP}!Z[v�vyM�v1d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z�xsL,w�vyO(� � � � }�M�gtOPk � {�M�v1w�K�ZzQ�Q � � Oi\�n�¡�d � L`vyZ^d8M�U4d8Z[UHw�v�L,w�Z,k:OtU

w�K�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUE�=L�}�OiU(V�¨�K�OigiZ�w�K�M~}DZ�M,{�� � L,v�Z^}�u�v�Z,L�k:M,pTZ[vBwyK�Z�¨�K�M�giZ��=L�}DOiU � � Oi\�n�¡�k � n K�Oe}BOP}BU�M�w

}DS�v�u�vyOP}DOtU�\¤�=Z,d�L`S=}�Z!¨*Z!K4L�pTZ_}DZ�Z[UzOiU }DZ,d8wyOiM�U=}�£~L¤L`U4k £��sw�K=L,wBQ�Q {�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw�Z�v�v�M�v�}�L`v�Z_w�K�Z!geL`vy\�Z,}�w

OiU^w�K�Z!d8Z�Uqwyv�L`g L,U=k?Z�L�}DwyZ[v�U��=L�}�OiU(VH¨�K�OigtZ�w�K�Z�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w*Z[vyv�M�v�}${�M�v�w�K�Z2¨�L[pTZ2L`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ�} ���L`vyZBgeL`v�\�Z

L�d�v�MT}y}*w�K�Z2¨�K�M�giZ!�=L�}DOtU � }�Z[Z!Z,}�u.Z�d8OPL,gigi� � Oi\�n � � n K�Z!Oixzu�v�M,pTZ[x^Z[Uqw�}3OtU �=M�w�KEQ�Q L,U=k(���*OtU=kqOPd�L`w�Z

w�K4L`w2w�K�Z�Q�Q OiUq{�M�v�xsL,w�OiM�UzOP}*wyv�L,U=} {�Z[vyv�Z,ksw�M�wyK�Z1MHd8Z,L`U�OPd�¨@L[pTZ,}��H�zw�K�Z � � � L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U(n K=L,w

w�K�Z¤gPL,w�wyZ[v!kHMTZ,}!d[L,u�w�S�vyZ¤wyK�Z¤MHd8Z�L`U&� L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ�d8M�S�u�giOtU�\^u�v�MHd8Z�}�}DZ�}B¨*Z[gtg(OP}2d8M�U4}DOP}�w�Z[UHw2¨�Oiw�Kmw�K�Z

gPL,v�\�Z?Q�Q �TMHd8Z�L`U&�§¨�L[pTZ�d�v�MT}y} � d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}�OtU � Oi\�n=¢Tn

0 Z1¨�Oe}DK:wyMzkHZ[w�Z[vyxzOiU�ZBwyK�Z1u�v�Z8{�Z�v�v�Z�k M��=}�Z[v�pHOiU�\ gtMHd[L`wyOiM�Us{�M�v2w�K�Z�Q�Q V�}�M wyK=L`w2w�K�Z1{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w

Z[vyv�M�v�}1L`v�Z^}�xsL`gtgiZ,}�wB¨�K�Z[UEw�K�Z^S�U�O ��S�Z Q�Q M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U Oe}!w�L -TZ�U®L`w!wyK=L`w1giMHd�L`w�OtM�U(n MmkqMm}DM�V

� � � Z��qu=Z[vyOixzZ�Uqw�}�¨*Z�v�Z¤u=Z[v�{�M�vyxzZ,k {�M�v1wD¨�M M�w�K�Z�v¤Q�Q M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U4}8V�OtUEw�K�Z�¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U

�=L�}DOiU L`w � ª�� � � L`U=ksOiUsw�K�Z�d8Z�Uqwyv�L`g(�4L�}DOtUEL,w � ¢�¢ � 0Gn K�Z1w�K�v�Z[Z�}DOtU�\�gtZ��yQ�Q Z��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}�¨�Oigtg��=Z

v�Z�{�Z[v�vyZ,k w�M��q��w�K�Z!OtU=kqZ��^M`{�w�K�Z!\�vyOPkzu=M�OiUHw�L,w�¨�K�OPd�KzwyK�Z1}DOtU�\�gtZ1M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�UROe}�w�L -TZ[U(nC�jw�OP}I{�M�S�U=k

w�K4L`w!wyK�Z^L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�UsZ[v�vyM�v�}�{�M�v¤Q�Q M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}_L`v�Z^}�xsL`gtgiZ,}�w�¨�K�Z[UES=}�OiU�\�w�K�ZzQ�Q k�L`w�LzOtU

w�K�Z�Z�L�}DwyZ[v�Us�=L�}DOtU � � Oi\�n�¡ � V�L,U=kzOiU=d8vyZ,L�}�Z1¨�K�Z[Usw�K�Z�Q�Q M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U:xzM,pTZ,}�wyM`¨@L`v�kRw�K�Z�¨�Z,}Dw�n

K�Z1�2c Q�Z[vyv�M�v�}�M,{�wyK�Z � � � L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U^L�d�v�MT}y}*w�K�Z_�=L�}�OiUs¨�OPkqwyKsL`vyZ1}DK�M`¨�UsOtU � Oi\�n � ��{�M�v !�"$#&% ���

w�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g.{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw2¨�Oiw�K�M�S�w_k�L`w�LzL�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U(V�L�}�¨*Z[gtg)L�}*{�M�v2w�K�Z�w�K�vyZ[Z1Z��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[Uqw�}�¨�Oiw�K®Q�Q

k�L,w�LzgiMHd[L,w�Z,kEOiUEwyK�Z^Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU(V(d8Z[UHw�v�L`gCL,U=kE¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyUE�=L�}�OiU(n K�Z^}�w�L`wyZ��§Z,}DwyOixsL,w�OiM�UEZ[v�vyM�v�}B¨�K�Z[U

S=}�OiU�\mL`U-Q�Q M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U�OtUEw�K�Z�Z�L�}DwyZ[v�UE�4L�}DOtU�L,w � ��� � 0 � kqZ[U�M�w�Z,k:�H� Q�Q a � � {�M�v!w�K�ZzQ�Q

Page 25: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

��ª

L`U�M�xsL,gi�TV �!Z[gtpqOtUEL,U=k w�K�Z �=v�}�w�w�¨�M:��MT}y}D�H�,�§¨�L[pTZ^L,xzu�giOtw�S=kHZ,} � K�Z,L[pH�E}DM�giOek � L`v�Z�d8M�U=}DOe}Dw�Z�Uqwygi�

�TS�OiwyZ¤}�xsL`gtgjn K�Z[OtvB�=Z[OtU�\ gtZ,}�}�w�K4L`U � ��� M`{CwyK�Z¤xsL��qOtxsL`g=xzMHkHZ[g���{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w�Z[v�vyM�v�} � }�K�M�vyw!k�L�}DK�Z�} �

OiU4kqOPd[L,w�Z,}Cw�K�Z�Z�� Z,d8wyOipTZ[U�Z�}�}�M`{CwyK�Z � � � }ydfK�Z�xzZTn

K�Z^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�UmZ[v�vyM�v�}!¨�Otw�K®w�K�Z^}�OiU�\�giZ�M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U-L,w � ¢�¢ � 0 � kHZ[U�M�wyZ,kE�q�®Q�Q ���� L`vyZ

d8M�U=}DOekqZ[v�L,��gi�mgPL,v�\�Z�v[V(��S�w�}DwyOigtg$gtZ,}�}BwyK=L`U�ª���� M,{�wyK�Z�xsL �HOix L`g(Z[vyv�M�v�}8n K�Zzk�L,w�LsL�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U

Z��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHwBS=}�OiU�\mL,U'Q�Q M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U-OiU®w�K�Z ¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U®�=L�}�OiU-L,w � ª���� � � kqZ[U�M�w�Z,k �H��Q�Q � �

�=L,v�Z[gt� vyZ,kqS=d8Z�}*w�K�Z!x�MHkqZ[g.{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw�Z�v�v�M�v�}*¨�Otw�K�M�S�w2k�L`w�L L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�U � }DK�M�v�w_k�L�}�K�Z,} � n K�Z!gPL,w�w�Z�v

L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�UzZ �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw${§L,OigP}Cw�M�vyZ,d8M,pTZ[v*wyK�Z1v�Ot\�KHw*u�K=L�}DZ�M`{�w�K�Z1w�vyS�Z�� }Dw�L`w�Z1K�Oe}DwyM�v��~VqZ[pTZ[U�w�K�M�S�\�K

Oiw1vyZ,d8M,pTZ[v�}!wyK�Zsd8M�v�v�Z�d8w1xsL`\�U�OiwyS=kqZ^M`{2w�K�ZsL`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,} � U�M�w }DK�M,¨�U � n K�OP}1OP}1U�M�w^}�S�v�u�vyOP}�OiU�\

�=Z,d[L,S=}DZ�OtURM�S�v1}�Oixzu�gtZ1d8M�S�u�giZ�kRxzMHkqZ�gjV�w�K�Z[v�Z�OP}�U�M�w!x^S=d�K:Q�Q }DOi\�U=L`g�OiU:wyK�Z¤¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�Um�=L�}�OiU L`w

L`gtg � }�Z[Z � Oi\~}8n���L L,U=k ��L � n

K�Z¤vyZ,}DS�giw�}�OiU � Oi\~}8n ¡zL`U4k � �z}�S�\�\�Z,}Dw1w�K4L`w!wyK�Z�}�OiU�\�giZ�� }DZ,d�w�OiM�U Q�Q xzZ,L�}DS�vyZ[xzZ[UHw�}COiU:wyK�Z

Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�U^u=L`vyw*M`{�w�K�Z2�=L�}DOiU�L`vyZBx�MT}DwCp�L`gtS=L`��giZTVTw�K�MT}DZ2OiU^w�K�Z!d8Z�Uqwyv�L`g��=L�}�OiU�L`v�Z_}DwyOigtg ��S�Oiw�Z�S4}DZ8{�S�g=��S�w

kqM�U�M�wCv�Z�kqS=d8Z2w�K�Z2Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�U�Z[vyv�M�v�}CL�}Cx S=d�K�L�}�U�Z�d8Z,}�}yL`vy�TVT¨�K�OigtZ�w�K�M~}DZ!OtU wyK�ZB¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�U��4L�}DOtUsL`vyZ

�=L,v�Z[gt�zS=}DZ�{�S�g)L`w_L`gtgjn K�Z1S=}�Z8{�S�giU�Z,}�}�M`{�Q�Q k�L`w�L^d[L,U:�=Z¤vyZ[gPL,w�Z,k wyM wyK�Z�d8M�vyv�Z,}�u=M�U=kqOtU�\ {�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw

Z[vyv�M�v�L,w!w�K�Z^M��4}DZ[vypTZ,k:giMHd[L,w�OtM�U(V)}DOtU=d8Z�wyK�ZzQ�Q Z[v�vyM�v�}1L,v�Z�gPL,v�\�Z,}Dw1OiUEwyK�Z^Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUEu=L`vyw�M,{�wyK�Z

�=L�}DOiU®L,U=kEkqZ,d�v�Z,L�}DZ,ks¨*Z,}�wD¨@L`v�k � � Oi\�n � ��L � n1� Us{§L�d8w�V.vyM�S�\�K�gi� }Du=Z,L�-qOtU�\�V�wyK�Z�d�M�UHw�v�Ot��S�wyOiM�UmM`{@L`U

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U:OtUmL`U � � � �§�=L�}�Z,k:L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�UzOP}*u�vyM�u=M�vyw�OtM�U=L,g�w�M�wyK�Z�d8M�vyv�Z,}�u.M�U=kqOtU�\ {�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v

p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z�L`w2w�K�Z1M��4}DZ[vypTZ,k giMHd�L`w�OtM�U � }DZ�Z � �q}�n � £ � L`U4k � � � � n

� � Q � �BQ � � � |�J � oB| |6| |6QH��r�h1� � � � J�| � � r

K�Z � � � L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U�M`{CwyK�Z�}DS��=}�S�vD{§L�d8Z�k�L`w�L �� L`w_L�}DOiU�\�giZ1gtMHd[L`wyOiM�UmOiUsw�K�Z�Z�L�}DwyZ[v�Us�=L�}DOtU

� ����� � 0 � ¨�M�v -�}2L�}�¨*Z[gtg�L�}�wyK=L`w2M`{Iw�K�Z�Q�Q k�L,w�L�U�Z,L`vy�q� L`U=ksZ[pTZ[Us}�M�xzZ[¨�K4L`w��=Z[w�wyZ[v � � Oi\T}�n ��� LqV !�"$#���% � �

d � nsrBM�wyZ wyK=L`w�¨*Z�L�}�}�S�xzZ,k®L`gtgCw�K�Z^MHd8Z,L,U&�j¨@L[pTZzd8MTZ��sd8OtZ[UHw�} ��HV � �� ��� ������� � £�V$L,v�Z�-HU�M,¨�U

Page 26: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

L`w_w�K=L,w�gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U(n K�Z^L`U=L,gi��}DOP}��jZ�v�v�M�v1d8M,p�L`vyOPL`U4d8Z,} � � � }�M�giOek � L,v�Z^}DS4d[d8Z,}y} {�S�gtgi�zvyZ,kqS=d8Z�k:�q�sw�K�Z

��^S�u k�L`wyZ,}¤L,U=k:v�Z�}DS�gtw!OiU:{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw��jZ[vyv�M�v¤d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z,} � � � k�L�}DK�Z�k � w�K4L`w�L`vyZ��=L`vyZ[gi� L`UH�:gPL,v�\�Z[v

� � Oi\T}�n ��� �(V=k � nC|2giw�Z�v�U=L,w�Z!MHk�kmL`U=kzZ[pTZ�Uzu=Z,L -�}�OtU � � {�M�v!Q�Q � � Oi\�n ��� d � d�M�v�vyZ,}Du=M�U=kzw�M^u.M~}DOtw�OipTZ

L`U4kRU�Z[\~L`wyOipTZ!u�K4L�}DZ�}�M,{Cw�K�Z�Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,gi�sd���d8gtZ � � Oi\�n ��L � n

K�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw��jZ�v�v�M�v�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}�Z,}�w�Oix L`w�Z�k �H� � � � L,w!w�K�Z�Z[U=k:M`{ � � �TZ,L`v�}!L`vyZ^}DK�M,¨�UEOtU

� Ot\�n � �Hn�JCM�xzu=L`vyZ,k wyM¤w�K�Z¤� � � Z,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,}${�M�v*w�K�Z1d8M�S�u�giZ,k^xzMHkqZ[g � � Oi\�n.¢ � VqwyK�Z1L,S�w�MHd8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=} !�"$#&% � �

� � Oi\T}�n � ��LHV�k�VT\�p�}�n�¢,LHV�k�VT\ � L`vyZ �TS�Otw�Z2}DOtxzOigeL`v���S�wCw�K�Z_d8v�M~}�}���d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}*kHO � Z[vCxzM�vyZ*U�M�w�Oed8Z,L`��gi�Tn

K�Z�geL`w�wyZ[v_kqO � Z[vyZ[U=d8Z,}2L`vyZ�u�v�M��=L`��gi�EkHS�Z�w�MzwyK�Z¤{§L�d�wBwyK=L`w1w�K�Z � � � d[L`u�wyS�v�Z�}B�=Z[w�wyZ[vBwyK=L`U®w�K�Z

� � � w�K�Z!Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�U^OiUzwyK�Z_}Du=L,w�OPL,g(Z[v�vyM�v@}Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z2M,pTZ[v�L�{�S�gig � r�Q � d8��d8giZ~n$�)Z[v�K=L,u=}�x�MT}DwCwyZ[gigtOiU�\

OP}�w�K�Z�kqO���Z�v�Z[U=d�Z�OtU:wyK�Z�}�w�v�S4d8w�S�vyZ¤M,{*wyK�Z�d�v�MT}y} � d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}B�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z[UEQ�Q L,U=k ��� � � Oi\�n � �,�Ep�}�n

¢[� � n K�Z � � � x^S=}Dw��=Z�d[L,u�w�S�vyOiU�\^w�K�Z�U�M�U�gtOiU�Z,L,v�OtwD��OiUsw�K�Z�}�S��=}DS�vD{§L�d�Z¤w�Z�xzu=Z[v�L,w�S�vyZ!v�Z[geL`wyOiM�Umw�M

w�K�Z[v�xzMHd�giOiU�Z!kqZ�u�w�Kmw�K=L,w�OiUsw�S�vyUEL ��Z�d8w�}!Q�Q n K�Oe}�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�UsOP} -HU�M,¨�U:wyMzkqO�� Z[v��=Z[w�¨*Z[Z[U L?¨@L`v�x

L`U4k:L�d8M�gPkzu�K=L�}DZTn

K�Z¤u�v�Z8{�Z[vyv�Z,kzgtMHd[L`wyOiM�UEwyMzxzZ,L�}DS�vyZ�}DS��=}�S�vD{§L�d8Z�k�L`w�L^OP}�OiUHpTZ,}DwyOi\TL,w�Z,kz�H�sS=}DOtU�\zMHd8Z,L,U&�§¨�L[pTZ

k�L,w�L ��^L`w_L }�OiU�\�giZ1giMHd�L`w�OtM�UmOiU:wyK�Z1¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyU � � £~¡ � � � V=d8Z[UHw�v�L`g � � ��� � � M�v2Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�Us�=L�}�OiU � ����� � 0 � n

K�Z2Oixzu�v�M,pTZ[x^Z[Uqw�}�OiU^w�K�Z1Q�Q � � Oi\�n � ©�L � L,U=k MHd8Z,L,U&�§¨�L[pTZ �4Z[gPk�} � � Oi\~}8n � ©,���Hk � L`vyZ!pTZ[v�� }DOtxzOigeL`v[n !�"$#&% �

K�Oe}�OP}Cw�M��.Z1Z��Hu=Z,d8wyZ,k?�=Z,d�L`S=}�Z!w�K�Z2{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w*Z[vyv�M�v�}�OtU �!Z[gipHOiU&��L,U=kz��MT}y}D�H�,�§¨�L[pTZ1L,xzu�giOtw�S=kHZ,}�L`vyZ

d8M�xzu=L`v�L`��gtZ1OiU®kqO���Z�v�Z[UHw�u=L`vyw�}BM,{�w�K�Z�MHd8Z�L`UE�=L�}DOiU � }DZ[Z � Oi\~}8n � �(V�d � n!QTOtU=d8Z�}�w�vyM�U�\sMHd8Z,L,U&�§¨�L[pTZ

}DOt\�U=L,gP}�L,v�Z1u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw�w�K�vyM�S�\�K�M�S�wBwyK�Z1�=L�}�OiU � }�Z[Z � Oi\~}8n=�`��V=kRL,U=k �`�(V=k � V � M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}�w�L -TZ[UmL,w

kqO���Z�v�Z[UHw*gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U4}BL,v�Z�L,��giZ1wyM�u�v�M,pHOPkqZ1w�K�Z�OtUq{�M�vyxsL`wyOiM�UzU�Z[Z,kHZ,k w�M^v�Z�d8M,pTZ[v*wyK�Z1w�v�S�Z¤}�w�L,w�ZTn

� U=d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzMHd8Z,L`U��j¨@L�pTZ1u�vyM�u=L,\TL,w�OiM�U Oe}*w�K�Z�xzZ,d�K=L`U�OP}Dx�M,{ � r�Q � xzZ�xzM�vy��OiUsw�K�Z kqZ[geL��TZ�k,�

MT}yd8OigtgPL,w�M�v ��w�M,�mxzMHkqZ[ge} �¤{�M�v � r�Q � � Q~S=L`vyZ���L,U=k�Q�dfK�M�uq{yV � ¡���� �)��L`w�wyOP}�w�O�L`U=k®]BOiv�}Dw�V � ¡���¡ ��l�OtU(V

� ¡�¡�¢ �$�*S�v�\�Z�v�}8V � ¡�¡�¡ � n1�È{Cw�K�OP}B¨�Z[v�Z1w�K�Z�d[L�}DZ�OiUmgiZ,}y}�K�Oi\�K�gi�sOPkqZ�L`giO �[Z,k x�MHkqZ[gP}�V.M�U�Z¤x�Oi\�KHw�w�K�OiU�-

Page 27: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

��¢

w�K4L`w�M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}*OtU wyK�Z!¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�Uzu=L,v�w�M`{�w�K�Z!�4L�}DOtUz¨*M�S�gPk^u�v�M,pHOPkqZ!wyK�Z2xzMT}�w*S=}�Z8{�S�g�OtUq{�M�vyxsL`wyOiM�U(n

]!L,M:L,U=k�hBK�Oig � � ¡�¡`£ � }�K�M,¨*Z,kEw�K�Oe}Bw�Ms�=Z^w�v�S�Z¤{�M�v1w�K�Z^S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,k:MHd8Z,L,U�xzMHkqZ�g$M,{!J�L`U�ZzL,U=k

��L,w�w�Z�U � � ¡��`£ � V$¨�K�OPd�KEOP}!}�giOi\�Kqwygi�mxzM�vyZ¤v�Z�L`giOe}DwyOPd�wyK=L`U®w�K�Z^lTr�MHd8Z,L`U®xzMHkqZ�g$S=}�Z,kEK�Z[v�Z~n K�Z��

L`wyw�vyOi��S�wyZ,kRwyK�OP}*vyZ,}DS�giw2OiUsw�K�Z�Oiv�xzMHkqZ�g(w�M^w�K�Z ��Z�gipHOiUz¨@L�pTZ�}�"�\�vyZ,L`wyZ[v_}Du=Z[Z,kmL`U=ksK�Z[U=d8Z1Z�� d8OtZ[U=d8�

OiUmd[L,v�vy�qOtU�\�OiUq{�M�v�xsL,w�OtM�UzZ,L�}Dw�¨�L,v�k�n

K�Zm}�L,xzZsd8M�S�gPk��=Zsw�v�S�ZROtU-w�K�Zmd8M�S�u�giZ�k�}�OiwyS=L`wyOiM�U�V�O {!wyK�Zs¨�OiU=k,� }Dwyv�Z,}y} {�M�v�d8OtU�\E¨*Z�v�Z

u=Z[vD{�Z�d8w�gt�:}�Oix^S�gPL,w�Z,ks�q�mw�K�Z^xzMHkqZ�gjn��*Z,d�L`S=}�Z�w�K�Z^d8M�S�u�gtZ,k³x�MHkqZ[g)OP}!Oixzu=Z[v�{�Z,d8w�V.K�M,¨�Z[pTZ[v[V=w�K�Z

¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�U&�§�=L�}�OiUmM��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=L`g)OiUq{�M�v�xsL,w�OtM�U �Ìd[L`vyv�OiZ�k?Z,L�}Dw�¨�L,v�k�V=L,gi�=Z[Otw1��S�Otw�Z1Z�� d8OiZ�Uqwygi�TV��H� �!Z[gtpqOtU

¨�L[pTZ,} �Ã�=Z,d8M�xzZ,}*gtZ,}�}!L�d[d8S�v�L`wyZ�w�K=L,U wyK�Z^k�L`w�LRM��=}DZ[vypTZ,k:OiUEwyK�Z�Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�UE�=L�}DOiU � � Oi\T}�n � ©`����k � n

]BZ[U4d8Z!w�K�Z � �k�L,w�L¤{�v�M�x w�K�Z�d8Z[UHw�v�L`g�L`U=ksZ,L�}�w�Z[vyUR�4L�}DOtUEL,v�Z�N�S=}Dw2L�}�S4}DZ8{�S�g(OtUsM�S�v_d8M�S�u�giZ,k^xzMHkqZ[g

L�}�w�K�MT}DZ1{�v�M�x�w�K�Z1¨�Z,}DwyZ[v�Uz�4L�}DOtU(n

© � ]!� � � Q�Q � �BQ � � �C| � � r�Q

|!k�kqOtw�OtM�U=L,gCL�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�UEZ��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}�¨*Z[vyZ^d[L`vyv�OiZ�k³M�S�w1OiU®¨�K�OPd�K�LsUqS�x �=Z[v2M`{_kqOe}DwyOiU=d8w

}DZ�d8w�OtM�U=}*M,{�Q�Q L`U=k � k�L`w�L^¨*Z[vyZ!S=}DZ�k�n K�Z,}�Z�L`vyZ1OiU=d8gtS=kqZ,k^OiU L,��giZ��HV=L`giM�U�\^¨�Oiw�KswyK�Z1v�Z,}�S�giw�} �� ��������

M`{Iw�K�Z }DOiU�\�giZ!��}�Z,d8w�OtM�UsZ��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}CL`gtv�Z,L�kq�mkqOP}yd8S=}�}�Z,k�n 0®Z�}�K�M,¨G©����j�TZ�L`v_�Bc Q�p�L,giS�Z�}�M,{�rBO�$U�M � ©

Q�Q V=L,U=kRwyK�MT}�Z¤M,{�MHd8Z�L`U&�§¨�L[pTZ�d8MTZ�� d8OiZ�Uqw�}�� � V�� a L,U=k�� � L�pTZ�v�L`\�Z,kzM,pTZ[v�w�K�Z1¨�K�M�giZ1�=L�}DOiU�n

|BU � � � Z��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�¨�OiwyK�Q�Q M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�L`w1w�K�vyZ[Z�giMHd�L`w�OtM�U=} � � ¢�¢ � 0GV � ©�¡ � 0GV$L,U=k

� ��� � 0 �ÃOe}BkqZ�U�M�wyZ,k:�q� ��© � Q�Q �sOiU L,��giZ^�Hn K�Z�Z[v�vyM�v�}�OtUEw�K�Oe}Bd[L�}DZ^L,v�Z�x^S=dfKm}�xsL`gtgiZ[v�w�K=L,U

¨�K�Z[UES4}DOiU�\:Q�Q k�L,w�LzOiUmw�K�Z�¨*Z,}�w*� d8Z[UHw�v�L,g$�4L�}DOtU � � ¢�¢ � 0 � M�U�gi�TV=��S�wIN�S=}Dw1}�giOt\�KHw�gi���.Z�w�w�Z�v!w�K=L,U

w�K�MT}DZ�¨�Otw�K®Q�Q k�L,w�L OtU:wyK�Z¤Z,L�}Dw���d8Z�Uqwyv�L`g)�=L�}DOiU � � ©�¡ � 0 � M�v!wyK�Z¤Z,L�}DwyZ[v�Um�=L�}�OiU � � ��� � 0 � L`gtM�U�ZTn

K�Z�}DxsL,gig�\~L`OtU �H�ES=}DOtU�\:wyK�Z^L�k�kqOiwyOiM�U4L`gBQ�Q k�L,w�LsM`pTZ�v¤Ls}�OiU�\�giZTV(¨*Z�gig��§u�geL�d8Z,kEd�v�MT}y} � }DZ,d�w�OiM�U

}DS�\�\�Z�}Dw�}�w�K4L`w2w�K�Z1gPL,w�wyZ[v2d[L`UmkqZ�giOipTZ�v*xzM~}Dw*M,{Cw�K�Z��=Z[U�Z��=w�}�V=L`w�gtZ,L�}�w�OiUsw�K�Oe}�}DOtxzu�giZ2xzMHkqZ�gjn

Page 28: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

���

£ � c � � ���*� � Q � �BQ � � � |!J � Q � J � � r�Q

0 Z�}�L[¨�w�K4L`w2L^}DOiU�\�giZ�}DZ,d8wyOiM�URM,{C}�S��=}�S�vD{§L�d8Z�k�L`w�L?\�OipTZ,}�L�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U^v�Z�}DS�gtw�}*w�K4L`w2L`vyZ1�.Z�w�w�Z�v

w�K4L`U-w�K�Z^�=Z,}Dw^}�OiU�\�giZ�� }DZ�d8w�OtM�U®v�Z,}�S�giw�}�¨�OiwyK'Q�Q k�L`w�LHn K�ZzMHd8Z,L,U&�§¨�L[pTZ vyZ,}DS�giw�}�L`vyZsL`gtxzMT}�w

OiU4kqZ[u=Z[U=kqZ�UqwCM`{)wyK�Z1}�OiU�\�giZ1}�Z,d8w�OtM�U "b}�giMHd[L,w�OiM�U(V�L�}*w�K�Z�d8M�vyv�Z,}�u.M�U=kqOtU�\^d8S�vypTZ,}�OiU � Ot\�n � £^L,v�Z1L,gixzM~}Dw

OiU4kqOP}�w�OiU�\�S�Oe}DK=L,��giZTn K�Z¤UHS�xzZ�v�OPd�L`g�vyZ,}DS�giw�}2OiU L`��giZ���}DK�M,¨�wyK=L`w�V�OiUs{§L�d8w�V.wyK�Z¤{§L`vyw�K�Z�vBZ,L�}Dw!wyK�Z

}DZ�d8w�OtM�Usw�K�Z1�=Z[wyw�Z[v�V�L`gt�=Z[Oiw��H�sL�pTZ[v���}DxsL,gig=xsL,v�\�OtU(n

M�}DZ�Z�¨�K�Z[w�K�Z�vBM�U�Z�d[L,UE}�w�Oigtg(Oixzu�v�M,pTZTV�OtU:M�S�v!}�Oixzu�gtZ1d8M�S�u�giZ�k x�MHkqZ[gjVHw�K�Z � � � v�Z,}�S�giw�}�{�M�v

}DS��=}DS�v�{§L�d8Z^k�L`w�LHV�¨*Z�v�L,U®L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�UsZ��qu=Z[vyOixzZ�Uqw�}I¨�Otw�KEx^S�giwyOiu�gtZ � ^}DZ,d8wyOiM�U=}8n10 Z kqZ[U�M�w�Z¤wyK�Z

d[L�}DZ¤¨�Otw�KmwD¨�M�M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}BM,{ ��^L`w � £T¡ � � L,U=k ����� � 0 L�}�wyK�Z ��� � �� � d�L�}DZ~V�L,U=kRwyK�Z�d[L�}DZ1¨�OiwyK

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}BM,{ ��^L,w1ª?gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U=}��ÌL`w � £T© � � V �[� � � � V � ���qV � £T� � 0GV=L,U=k ����� � 0 �L�}�w�K�Z ��ª � �� �

d[L�}DZ � L`��gtZ�� � n

K�Z^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�Umv�S�U®¨�OiwyK+�=pTZ^}DZ,d�w�OiM�U=}!kqMTZ�}�K4L�pTZ�wyK�Z^}Dx L`gigtZ,}Dw2Z[vyv�M�v�}!M`pTZ�v�L`gtgjV=OiUE�=M�wyK

Q�Q L,U=kE��M~}�}��q�m¨�L[pTZ,}8V=��S�w_w�K�Z L�k�kqOtw�OtM�U=L,g�\TL,OiU=}BM,{�S=}DOtU�\zw�K�Z�� � � zL,U=kEª � ���k�L,w�Ls}DZ[w�}�M,pTZ[v

w�K�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU&�j�4L�}DOtU�k�L`w�LsL,w ����� � 0 M�U�gi�®L`vyZ ��S�Oiw�Z�giOtxzOiwyZ,k�n!�jU:{§L�d8w[V�wyK�Z �!Z[gipHOiU��j¨@L�pTZ�Z[v�vyM�v!OtU

w�K�Z�ª � � Z��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[UqwCOe}!}DgtOi\�KHw�gt�z¨*M�v�}�Z�w�K=L,U OtU:M�wyK�Z[v!Z �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw�}C¨�OiwyKE}DS��=}DS�v�{§L�d8Z�k�L,w�LqV�L`U=k

�=M�wyK wyK�Z � � L,U=k � a Z[v�vyM�v�}!L`vyZ^}DgiOt\�KHw�gt�R¨�M�v�}DZ�w�K4L`UEOiUEwyK�Z � a � Z��Hu.Z�v�Oix�Z[Uqw�n K�Z,}�Z^L`vyZ^}DS���wygiZ

Z�� Z,d8w�}!kqS�Z�w�Msw�K�Z¤xzMHkqZ�g�"¸}2kqOe}Dw�OtU=d8w_kqOP}�u=Z[v�}�OiM�UEvyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U:{�M�v_w�K�Z ��Z�gipHOiU:p�}8n!wyK�Z^��MT}�}��q�m¨�L[pTZ,}

L`U4k:Oiw�}�U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`vyOiw��Tn 0®Z¤vyZ8{�Z[v2w�Ms]_L`M�L`U=k h2K�Otg � � ¡�¡,£ � {�M�v�L kqOe}�d8S4}�}DOtM�UEM,{*wyK�Z¤Z���Z�d8wBM,{C¨�L[pTZ

kqOe}Du=Z[v�}�OiM�U�M�U-k�L`w�LEL�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�UEOiU LRgiOtU�Z,L,v[V$w�¨�M � kqOixzZ�U=}DOtM�U=L,gC}DK=L,gigtM`¨ �§¨�L,w�Z[v�xzMHkqZ[g�M`{2w�K�Z

w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g4��L�d8O � d�L`U4k?wyM�c:OigtgiZ[v ²��C´� i° � � ¡�¡`£ � {�M�v�L1}DOtxzOigeL`v�kqOP}yd8S=}�}�OiM�U M,{(w�K�Z�Z�� Z,d8w�M,{(U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`vyOiwyOiZ,}

OiU �[Z�v�M � kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U4L`g=��S�w2K�Oi\�K�gi��U�M�U�gtOiU�Z�L`v�xzMHkqZ�gP}8n

QTS=d�KE}�S���w�gtZ[w�OtZ,}2L�}DOekqZTV(M�U�Z^d8v�M~}�} � }DZ�d8w�OtM�UEM`{�}DS��4}DS�v�{§L�d8Z^k�L,w�LsL`u�u.Z�L`v�}1v�L,w�K�Z[v�}�L`wyOP}j{§L�d8wyM�v��

{�M�v_w�K�Oe}B}�Oixzu�gtZ�d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g§nB�*Z�w�w�Z�v2}Du=L,w�OPL,g�v�Z�}DM�gtS�w�OtM�U®L,U=kEL xzM�v�Z!{§L`Otw�Kq{�S�g)v�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw�L`wyOiM�U

Page 29: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

��¡

M`{I�.M�w�KmMHd8Z,L`U�OPd1L`U=kmL`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyOPdBu�vyMHd8Z,}y}DZ,}2d8M�S�gPk�VHK�M,¨*Z[pTZ[v�VqOtU=d8v�Z�L�}DZ_w�K�Z�UqS�x^�=Z[vCM`{�kHZ[\�vyZ[Z,}*M`{

{�v�Z�Z,kqM�x w�K=L,w!L,v�Z�L�d8wyOipTZ!OtUsw�K�Z }D��}Dw�Z�x�L,U=k:w�KHS=}*w�K�Z�UHS�x^�=Z[v*M,{CM��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}�v�Z��TS�OivyZ,k wyM wyv�L�d.-

Oiw2L�d[d8S�v�L`wyZ[gi�Tn

¿`°�±³²f¾ � � � ¹ ´`¹�¹�¾ �T¯=²y½z»#� �����

M^S�U=kHZ[v�}�w�L`U4kRK�M,¨Gw�K�Z � � � wyv�Z,L,w�}�w�K�Z�k�L,w�L OtU:kHO � Z[v�Z�Uqw�u=L,v�w�}BM`{CwyK�Z1�=L�}�OiU(V=w�K�Z¤¨*Z�Oi\�KHw�}

\�OtpTZ[Usw�MzwyK�Z¤M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}BOiUmw�K�Z�wD¨�M � }DZ,d�w�OiM�UE}�Z[wBM,{�}DS��=}DS�v�{§L�d8Z^k�L`w�L�L`v�Z�Z���L`xzOtU�Z,k OtU � Ot\�n � £�n !�"$#&% � �

K�Z1¨*Z�Oi\�KHw�}�}�K�M,¨�U:K�Z�v�Z�L`vyZ¤}�U=L`u4}DK�M�w�}!L,w�w�Oix�Z1}DwyZ[u(� � � ��� ������ �©��¤�TZ�L`v�}�n

K�Z¤M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}�OtU:wyK�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU:u=L,v�w!M,{�w�K�Z��=L�}DOtU®L`v�Z�\�OipTZ[Usx^S=d�KRx�M�v�Z1¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw2M,pTZ[v�L,gigjV

OiU®u=L,v�w�Oed8S�geL`v1¨�K�Z[U®w�K�Z�L � Z,d�w�Z,kEp�L`v�OeL`��gtZ Oe}1kqOP}�w�OiU4d8wB{�v�M�x�w�K�Z^M��4}DZ[vypTZ,k³M�U�Z � }DZ�Z Z,}�u=Z,d8OPL,gigt�

� Ot\T}8n � £TLmL`U=kEk � n?Q~OiU=d8Z�w�K�Z^}�w�vyM�U�\�Z,}Dw!OtUqwyZ[v�L�d8w�OtM�Um�.Z�wD¨�Z[Z[Umw�K�ZzQ�Q L`U4k:¨�L[pTZ �=Z�gPk�}BMHd�d8S�v�}

OiUmw�K�Z1Z,L�}DwyZ[v�Um�=L�}�OiU(V=Oiw�Oe}�vyZ,L�}�M�U=L,��giZ�w�MsL�}�}DOt\�U L gPL,v�\�Z�v�¨*Z[Ot\�KHw�w�MzMHd8Z�L`U�Oed�M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}Bw�K�Z�v�ZTV

\�OtpTZ[U:wyK�Z^}�L,xzZ�M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=L,g*L�d[d8S�v�L�d8�~V�Z,}Du=Z,d�OPL`gtgi�z¨�K�Z[U�d�M�v�vyZ,d8wyOiU�\:Q�Q n K�Oe}BZ[xzu�K4L�}DOe}�M�U

Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�U&�§�=L�}�OiU®M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}!OP}!}�xsL`gtgiZ[v�¨�K�Z[U�d�M�U=}�OPkqZ[vyOiU�\�w�K�Z�Z�� Z,d�wBM,{����!M�v�� a M�U®Z,L�dfKEM�w�K�Z[v

� � Oi\T}�n � £Td^L`U=kEZ � n¤rBM�w�Z�w�K=L,w�wyK�Z�¨*Z�Oi\�KHw�}2\�OipTZ�U:w�MsZ[Otw�K�Z�v ���1M�v�� a ¨�K�Z[UES�u k�L,w�OtU�\:wyK�Z �=Z[gek

w�K4L`w1OP}��=Z[OiU�\sM��=}DZ[vypTZ,k � � Oi\~}8n � £���L,U=k { � �L`w1wyK�Z�M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�UEgiMHd[L,w�OtM�U®Oiw�}�Z[gX{ ��OP}2L`�=M�S�w¤�Hn¸ªHn

K�Oe}�d�M�U&�=vyxs}!w�K=L,w1M�S�v L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�U®}�d�K�Z[xzZ�OP}!¨*Z�gig��§�=L,gPL`U4d8Z,k�V(OiUEwyK�Zs}�Z[U=}DZ^w�K4L`w1Oiw�L�}y}DOt\�U=}

d8M�xzu=L`v�L`��gtZ1¨*Z[Ot\�KHw�}*w�M^w�K�Z�d8S�vyv�Z[UHw�M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�V�M�Umw�K�Z�M�U�Z�K=L`U=k V�L,U=k:w�M^w�K�Z1{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�wB�4L�}DZ�k

M�Umu=L�}�wBM��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}8V=M�Usw�K�Z1M�w�K�Z[v�n

0 Z2L,gP}�M �=U=k�w�K4L`wCw�K�Z2¨*Z�Oi\�KHw�})K=L[pTZ!}�OixzOtgPL`v)}�K=L`u=Z,}�L`U=k^xsL`\�U�OiwyS=kqZ,}�kHS�v�OtU�\�kqO � Z[vyZ[Uqw�u�K=L�}�Z,}

M`{ � r�Q � VTZ���d8Z[u�wI{�M�v*wyK�ZB¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}�\�OipTZ[U�wyM � a M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}C¨�K�Z[UzS�u�k�L`w�OtU�\zQ�Q � � Oi\�n � £Tk � n K�Z

}DK4L`u=Z,}!L,v�Z^}DwyOigtg)}DOix�OigPL,v*OtU:w�K�Z¤¨�L,v�x L`U4kEd8M�gekRu�K=L�}DZ,}�V.��S�w!w�K�Z¤xsL,\�U�Otw�S=kqZ1M,{Cw�K�Z�¨*Z[Ot\�KHw�}2L`U=k

w�K�ZBgtMHd[L`wyOiM�U4}�¨�K�Z[vyZ!w�K�ZB¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}Iu=Z,L�-zL,v�Z_}DK�O {�w�Z,k n�oBS�vyOiU�\�w�K�Z_¨�L`vyx�u�K=L�}DZTVHw�K�Z���1M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}

Page 30: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©��

OiUmw�K�Z�Z,L�}�w�Z[vyUE�=L�}�OiU � �� a �,�*��gPL�d -md8S�v�pTZ,} � L`v�Z�\�OipTZ[UsgeL`v�\�Z[v!¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}*OiUES�u k�L,w�OiU�\:Q�Q V L`U=k:wyK�Z

gPL,v�\�Z,}Dw�¨*Z[Ot\�KHw*MHd[d8S�v�}�{�S�vyw�K�Z[vCwyM`¨@L`v�k�}*w�K�Z_�=L�}�OiU "b}*Z,L�}�w�d8M~L�}Dw�wyK=L`UmkqS�v�OiU�\¤w�K�Z1d8M�gek u�K=L�}DZTV�¨�K�OigiZ

w�K�ZBM��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}*OtU wyK�Z2¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyU �=L�}DOtU � �� � �)\�v�L���d8S�vypTZ,} � L`v�Z_\�OipTZ�U^}DxsL,gigiZ�v$¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}8nCoBS�vyOiU�\1wyK�Z

d8M�gPkRu�K=L�}�ZTV�w�K�Z¤M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}BOtU:wyK�Z�¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyU:�=L�}DOtUEL`vyZ�\�OtpTZ[UsxzM�vyZ�¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw_L`U4k:w�K�Z�xsL �HOix^S�x

M`{�w�K�Z�¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}�� {�M�v*�=M�w�K � � L`U=k � a � M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}��ÃMHd�d8S�v�}*{�S�vyw�K�Z[v�wyM,¨�L`v�k�}*w�K�Z¤d�Z[Uqwyv�L,g��=L�}DOiU�n

K�Z^xsL`\�U�OiwyS=kqZ�M`{�wyK�Z^¨*Z[Ot\�KHw�}!kqS�v�OiU�\RwyK�Z�w�v�L`U=}�OiwyOiM�U4}�u�K=L�}�Z,}�M,{ � r�Q � L`vyZ OtU&�j�=Z[w�¨�Z[Z[U:wyK�Z

Z��Hw�vyZ[xzZ��§u�K=L�}DZ!xsL,\�U�Otw�S=kHZ,}8n K�Z � � � w�KHS=}!L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�Z�}*M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}BM`{�MHd8Z�L`U�Oed�¨�L[pTZ,}*OtU:wyK�Z

Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�Us�=L�}�OiUmxzM�vyZ!Z�� Z,d8wyOipTZ[gt�^kqS�v�OtU�\ � g)rBO�$U�M�V=¨�K�OtgiZ!wyK�Z1M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}�OtUsw�K�Z�d8Z[UHw�v�L`g(�=L�}DOtU:L,v�Z

xzM�v�Z!S=}�Z8{�S�g)kqS�v�OiU�\z� L rBO�$U=LHn

� 7�� ���2&(���2������2

´q°�� º � ��´ �

�jU wyK�OP}1u=L`u=Z[v�V$¨*Z }Dw�S4kqOiZ,k®k�L,w�LEL�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U:{�M�v�L:}�Oixzu�giZTV���S�w�{�S�gtgi� d8M�S�u�giZ,k wyv�M�u�OPd[L,g

MHd8Z,L,U&� L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z1xzMHkHZ[gjn � S�v!d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzxzMHkqZ[g OP}*�=L�}DZ,kzM�U l�OiUmL`U4k:rBZ[Z�giOiU "¸} � � ¡�¡�© � L`U4k:rBZ[Z�giOiU

L`U4k�l�OiU "b} � � ¡�¡�© � � lTr�w�K�vyM�S�\�K�M�S�w�wyK�Z^xsL`OtUEw�Z��Hw � ��}�w�vyOiu�u=Z,k,� kqM,¨�U �:pTZ[v�}DOtM�UEM`{1Y=Z���OPL�-®L`U=k

J�L`U�Z�"¸} � � ¡��T¢ � xzMHkqZ�gCL`U=k d8M�U=}�OP}�w�}!M`{_L,U�S�u�u=Z[v��jMHd8Z�L`U�xzMHkHZ[g�M`{@w�K�Z^w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g���L�d8O��.d L,U=k L

}DwyZ,L�kH�,� }Dw�L`w�Z^L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Oed�vyZ,}Du=M�U=}DZ�wyMzw�K�Z�MHd8Z,L,UExzMHkqZ[g#"¸}BQ�Q L,U�M�xsL,giOtZ,}8n�|2UEL�kHp�L,U=d8Z,kEk�L`w�L

L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�UExzZ�w�K�MHk�V w�K�Z^Z��Hw�Z[U=kHZ,k �1L,gixsL,U+�=giwyZ[v ��� � ��� V3¨@L�}1S=}DZ,kEw�Msw�L�d.-qgtZ�w�K�Z^xzMHkqZ[g#"¸}

U�M�U�giOtU�Z,L`vyOiw��Tn K�OP}�d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzxzMHkqZ[g OP}�}DOtxzu�gtZBZ[U�M�S�\�KR{�M�v�wyK�Z � � � wyM �=Z�L`u�u�giOiZ�k wyM�Oiw�}�{�S�gig)}�w�L`wyZ

}Du4L�d8Z L`U=kmd[L`Um}DZ�v�pTZ1w�K�Z�v�Z8{�M�v�Z1L�}!L¤�=Z[U=d�K�xsL`v/-?{�M�v�{�S�w�S�vyZ¤k�L`w�L�L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�Us}DwyS=kqOtZ,}*¨�OiwyKRx�M�v�Z

v�Z�L`giOe}DwyOPd!L,U=kRK�Ot\�K�gt� vyZ,}DM�gipTZ,ksd8M�S�u�gtZ,k xzMHkqZ�gP}8n

0ÃOiU=k���}�w�v�Z�}�}*Z[vyv�M�v�}�¨�Z[v�Z�L�}�}�S�xzZ,kzwyM �=Z1w�K�Z�}�M�giZ�}�M�S�v�d8Z¤M,{�xzMHkHZ[g(Z[v�vyM�v�}8n K�Oe}BL�}�}DS�xzu�w�OtM�U

OP}1LsS=}DZ8{�S�g*}�Oixzu�giO��.d[L`wyOiM�Us{�M�v�wD¨�Mmd8M�xzu�giZ[xzZ�UTw�L`vy�sv�Z,L�}DM�U4}8n � Oiv�}Dw[V(¨�OtU=k,� }Dw�vyZ,}�}1Z[v�vyM�v�}¤L`vyZzL

Page 31: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

© �

kqM�xzOiU=L,Uqw_}DM�S�v�d�Z M,{*Z�v�v�M�v�}!OiUEwyK�Z�Z,}�w�Oix L`w�OtM�U L`U=kEu�v�Z�kqOPd8wyOiM�U:M`{@w�K�Z�wyv�M�u�OPd[L,gCd8gtOixsL,w�Z�}D��}DwyZ[x

� c:OtgigtZ[v�L,U=k J�L`U�Z~V � ¡���¡ �)]!L`MsL,U=k h2K�Oig§V � ¡�¡`£���JCK�Z�U ²��2´� i° V � ¡�¡�¡ � n�QTZ,d�M�U=k�V=¨�OiU4k,��}�w�vyZ,}�}BZ�v�v�M�v�}

v�Z�u�v�Z,}�Z[UHw�}�d�K�Z[x L`w�Oed[L`gtgi��w�K�Z1xsL,OiUzZ�� Z,d�w�}*M`{I¨*Z,L,w�K�Z[v�U�M�OP}�Z1OiUsw�K�Z�}���}�w�Z[xEn

0 Z�}�w�L`vyw�Z,k:�H�zOtUqpTZ,}�w�Ot\TL`wyOiU�\�wyK�Z�kH�qU=L,xzOPd�L`g(}�w�vyS=d8w�S�v�Z¤M,{Cw�K�Z�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw!Z[vyv�M�v�}�OiU:Z�Oiw�K�Z[v�w�K�Z

d8M�S�u�giZ�k:M�v¤S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ,kR{�v�L`xzZ�¨*M�v/-�V �q� L`u�u�gt�qOtU�\sw�K�Z^giOtU�Z,L,v�O(��Z,k+�1L`gtxsL`U+�4giw�Z�v � � � ��� V3¨�K�OPd�K

u�vyM�u=L,\TL`wyZ,}�wyK�Z�Z[vyv�M�v "¸}!d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z�xsL,w�vyO(�zgtOiU�Z,L,v�gt�:L,giM�U�\mL vyZ8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z }DM�gtS�w�OtM�U � � Oi\�n¤� � n K�Z

{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw*�§Z[vyv�M�v�}Dw�vyS=d8wyS�v�Z¤{�M�v!w�K�Z d8M�S�u�giZ,ksxzMHkqZ[g�kqO���Z�v�}�{�vyM�x w�K=L,w!M`{�wyK�Z�S�U=d8M�S�u�gtZ,kRM�U�ZTn K�Z

MHd8Z,L,U&� L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z d8M�S�u�giOtU�\?{�Z�Z,kq�=L�d -sZ[U�K4L`U=d8Z�}�wyK�Z�{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw��jZ[vyv�M�v1d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}8V=Z,}Du=Z,d8OeL`gtgi�zwyK�Z

d8vyMT}�}���d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}2L`xzM�U�\�w�K�Z�p�L,v�OiM�S=}�MHd8Z,L`U�OPd!¨�L[pTZ,} � d8M�xzu=L`vyZ � Oi\~}8nCª�L`U4k³¢ � n

K�Z�d�M�S�u�gtOiU�\^OiU4kqS=d8Z,}2L`U4k:v�Z[OtUq{�M�v�d8Z,}8V�OtU:u=L,v�wyOPd8S�geL`v�V�Lz}�Z[Z,}yL�¨�{�Z,L,w�S�vyZ�L,giM�U�\zw�K�Z�Z��TS=L`wyM�v[V

¨�OiwyK Z�v�v�M�v�d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}!M`{@M�u�u=MT}�OiwyZ:}�Oi\�U OtU wyK�Z MHd�Z,L`U�Oed?¨@L[pTZ,}!M�U�Z[Otw�K�Z�v1}DOekqZ M,{2w�K�Z^MHd8Z,L,U

�=L�}DOiU�n K�OP}�}�Z[Z,}yL�¨«u=L`wyw�Z[vyUE}DZ�Z[xs}�wyM vyZ,}DS�giw*{�v�M�x�w�K�Z¤d�M�U=}�w�v�L,OiUHwBOtxzu=MT}�Z,kzM�U:wyK�Z1¨�L[pTZ,}*�H�zw�K�Z

w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g MHd8Z,L,U "¸}�QTpTZ[v�kHv�S�u^�=L`geL`U=d�Z!�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z[U^w�K�Z1}DS�v�{§L�d8Z2{�M�v�d�OiU�\ L`U=kzw�K�ZBu�vyZ,}�}�S�v�Z_\�v�L�kqOiZ�Uqw�n K�Z

OiU �=S�Z[U=d�ZBM,{�¨@L�pTZ2v�Z��=Z,d8wyOiM�U�L`w�wyK�Z �[M�U=L`g �=M�S�U=k�L`v�OtZ,}*OP}�L`ge}DM�Z[U�K4L`U=d8Z�k OiU^w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ,kzd�L�}DZ~n K�Z

kqO���Z�v�Z[U=d�Z¤�=Z[w�¨*Z[Z�UEw�K�Z¤{�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw��jZ[vyv�M�v¤d�M`p�L,v�OPL,U=d8Z,}2M`{�wyK�Z�S�U=d�M�S�u�gtZ,kEL`U4k d8M�S�u�gtZ,kEd[L�}�Z,}BwyKqS=}

}DS�\�\�Z�}Dw�}2w�K=L,w�¨*Z1u=L[�s}Du=Z,d�OPL`g)L,w�wyZ[UqwyOiM�UROtUsu=L�}y}DOiU�\ {�v�M�x k�L`w�L L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�UzOiUsw�K�Z�{�M�v�xzZ�v*w�M^w�K�Z

gPL,w�wyZ[v[n

rBZ��Hw[V�¨�ZzK=L[pTZm}DK�M,¨�U'wyK=L`w^w�K�Z � � � }�d�K�Z[xzZ�d[L,U�Z���Z�d8w�OtpTZ[gi�EZ,}�w�OtxsL`wyZ wyK�Zsw�v�M�u�OPd�L`g

MHd8Z,L,U&� L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z^}�w�L,w�Z�{�M�v!wyK�Z^d8M�S�u�giZ,k:x�MHkqZ[gjn Msv�Z,}�w�M�v�Z�w�K�Z�u�K=L�}�ZzL,U=k®L`xzu�gtOiwyS=kqZ1M`{�Oiw�}

� r�Q � MT}yd8OigtgPL`wyOiM�U(V�w�K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g(U�Z�Z,k�}BM�U�gi�mM��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}¤d8M,pTZ[vyOiU�\�Lz}�OiU�\�giZ�xzZ[vyOPkqOtM�U=L,g)}DZ,d�w�OiM�U(n

� OiwyK�Z[v�}DZ,L���}�S�vD{§L�d8Z^w�Z[xzu=Z[v�L`wyS�v�Z � Q�Q � M�v�}DS��=}�S�vD{§L�d8Zsk�L,w�LmL`giM�U�\E}�S=d�K�Lm}DZ,d8wyOiM�U®L`u�u=Z,L,v�w�M

}DS �sd8Z � � Oi\~}8n�¡^L`U4k ��� � n

K�Z1giMHd[L,w�OtM�UsM`{�Q�Q M��=}DZ�v�p�L`wyOiM�U4}B}�K�M�S�gekz�.Z1¨�Z[gig�dfK�M~}DZ[U��CL�}DZ,d8wyOiM�URgtMHd[L`wyZ,kzOiUzwyK�Z1Z,L�}�w�Z[vyU

Page 32: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©��

�=L�}DOiUmw�Z[U4k�}*w�M^�=Z¤w�K�Z�x�MT}Dw�S4}DZ8{�S�g � � Oi\�n � �^L`U=k L,��giZ � � n K�Z�S=}DZ�{�S�giU�Z�}�}*M`{@Q�Q M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}

kqZ,d�v�Z,L�}DZ,}!w�M,¨@L`v�k�}�wyK�Z^¨*Z,}�w�Z[vyUEu=L`vyw¤M`{@w�K�Z^�=L�}DOiU�nRQTS��4}DS�v�{§L�d8Z�k�L`w�L:L,Uq�H¨�K�Z[vyZ�OiU®w�K�Z^�=L�}�OiU

v�Z�kqS=d8Z1w�K�Z¤OiU�Oiw�OeL`g Z[v�vyM�v�}_kqv�L,xsL`wyOPd[L,gigi� � � Oi\�n � © � V.¨�Otw�K:wyK�Z�}�Z,d8wyOiM�UsOtU:w�K�Z¤Z,L�}Dw�Z�v�U:�4L�}DOtU:K=L[pHOiU�\

w�K�Z1}DxsL,gigtZ,}DwCZ[vyv�M�v�} � L`��gtZ1� � n K�Z1U�M�U�giMHd[L,g(v�Z,}�u.M�U=}DZ1M,{)w�K�Z�L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZBwyM�w�K�Z�Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gtOiZ,}

Z[U=}�S�v�Z�}BL^}DxzMTM�w�Ks¨�OiU4k �=Z[geksL`U=ksK�Z[U=d8Z1MHd8Z�L`U&�§¨�L[pTZ �=Z[gek�}�wyK=L`w_L`vyZ�}DxzMTM�w�K(V=w�MTM�n�|�wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyOPd

M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}�M`{)wyK�Z1¨�OiU=kz}�w�vyZ,}�}�V�¨�K�OPd�KzOP}CU�M�w2L¤u�v�M�\�U�MT}�w�Oed�p�L,v�OPL,��giZ_M`{�w�K�Z1xzMHkqZ�gjVTd[L,Us�.Z1Z,L�}DOtgi�

L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�Z�k ¨�OiwyKRwyK�Z � � � }ydfK�Z�xzZ!L�}�¨�Z[gig � U�M�w2}DK�M,¨�UmK�Z[v�Z � n

»`°���¾X¹�¿[º�¹�¹�¾P­T¯

K�Z � � � Z��Hw�v�L�d8w�}Bw�K�Z OtUq{�M�vyxsL`wyOiM�U d8M�UHw�Z�Uqw!M,{2}�u=L`v�}DZ^M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}8V)\�v�Z�L`w�gt�EZ[U�K=L,U=d8OtU�\

w�K�Z¤S=}�Z8{�S�giU�Z,}�}�M`{�L^giOix�Oiw�Z�k k�L,w�Lz}�Z[w[n K�Z^}DxsL,gig UqS�x^�=Z[v*M,{@k�L`w�L U�Z[Z,kHZ,kzw�Mzwyv�L�d.-zwyK�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,k

xzMHkqZ�g�"¸}�u=Z[v�OtMHkqOPd^}DM�giS�wyOiM�U OtU wyK�Z�u�v�Z�}DZ[UHw!xzMHkqZ�g�OP}!u�vyM��=L,��gi�®kqS�Z�w�M:wyK�Z¤{§L�d�w�wyK=L`w�Lsu=L`Otv!M`{

MT}yd8OigtgPL,w�M�vy�ExzMHkqZ,}!¨�Otw�K L:}DOtxzu�gtZ^}Du=L,w�OPL,g�}�w�v�S4d8w�S�vyZzkHM�xzOtU=L`wyZ�Oiw�}1Z[pTM�gtS�w�OtM�U(n K�OP}!{§L�d8w1¨@L�}

kqZ[x�M�U=}�w�v�L,w�Z,k�{�M�v2w�K�Z1xzMHkqZ�g(L`w2K=L,U=kR�H�zlTrGL,U=k:]!L,M ²���´� i° � � ¡�¡�© � n

K�Z^kqM�xzOiU=L,U=d8Z�M,{2L {�Z[¨�}�Oixzu�giZ1xzMHkqZ,}!OtUEw�K�Z^w�Z[x�u.M�v�L,gigi�sOtv�v�Z�\�S�geL`v1L,U=k }�u=L`wyOPL,gigi�EvyOPd�K

�=Z[K=L[pHOiM�v_M`{2LzUHS�x^�.Z�vBM,{�v�Z�gPL`wyZ,k � r�Q � xzMHkqZ[ge}�¨@L�}1}DK�M`¨�U®�H�El�OiU ²��_´� i° � � ¡�¡`£�V � ¡�¡ � � L`U=k

�[Otu.Z�v�xsL,U ²��2´� i° � � ¡�¡`£ � V(L`x�M�U�\�M�w�K�Z[v�}8n��2L�}�x S4}�}DM�U � � ¡�¡ � � V �!Z[u�u=Z[U�Z¤L,U=k³h2K�Otg � � ¡�¡�� � V(l�OeL`U�\

²��_´� i° � � ¡�¡�ª � L`U4k:M�w�K�Z[v1L`S�w�K�M�v�}1L`ge}DMz{�M�S�U4kEL geL`vy\�Z�{�v�L�d8wyOiM�UEM`{�wyK�Z¤M��=}DZ�v�pTZ,k:p�L`vyOPL,U=d8Z¤OtUEw�K�Z

w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g)��L�d8O � d�"¸}*p�L,v�OiM�S=}2d8giOtxsL`wyOPd �=Z[gPk�}�wyM �=Z�d[L`u�w�S�vyZ,kR�H�sL¤{�Z[¨�MT}yd8OigtgPL,w�M�vy�zxzMHkqZ�}8n�hBK�Oig)L`U4k

l�OPL,U�\ � � ¡�¡�� � }�K�M,¨*Z,k:wyK=L`w2u�vyZ,kqOPd�w�OiU�\ wyK�ZTV�u=MT}y}DOi��gi�:vyZ[gPL,w�Z,k V ��S=L�}DO �j��OtZ[U�U�OeL`g�L`U=k:gtM,¨ �È{�vyZ���S�Z[U=d8�

xzMHkqZ�Oe}!d8vyS=d8OPL,g${�M�v1wyK�ZzL�d[d8S�v�L�d8�mM`{@�.M�w�K-kH�qU=L,xzOPd�L`g�L`U=k®}Dw�L`w�Oe}DwyOPd[L,g � r�Q � {�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw�}8nzh2K�Oig

L`U4kE��M��.Z�v�w�}�M�U � ������� � L`v�\�S�Z,k�V(wyK�Z[v�Z�{�M�v�Z~V.wyK=L`w!wyK�Z¤Z�pqOekqZ[U=d8Z!{�vyM�x�L�{�S�gig)K�OiZ�v�L`v�dfKH�zM,{�d�giOix L`w�Z

xzMHkqZ�gP}8V�S�u wyM�L`U=k OtU=d8gtS=kqOiU�\!\�Z[U�Z[v�L,g�d�Oiv�d�S�gPL,w�OiM�U¤xzMHkHZ[gP} � h1J�cE} � �ÌL�}C¨*Z[gtg=L�}${�v�M�x�M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}

Page 33: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©�©

L`U4k³vyZ,L`g �jwyOixzZ!{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw�}*-HOigtg �}�S�u�u=M�vyw�}BwyK�Z^kqM�xzOiU=L,U=d8Z�M`{@L {�Z[¨GMT}�d�OigigeL`wyM�v��mxzMHkqZ,}2OiU � r�Q �

p�L`vyOPL`��OigiOtw�� M�U:}�Z,L�}�M�U=L,g��§w�M��jOtUqwyZ[v�L,U�UqS4L`gC}yd[L`gtZ,}8n

K�OP}�}DOtw�S=L,w�OiM�U�{�M�v�w�K�Zzw�vyM�u�Oed[L`g@d8M�S�u�giZ,k�}���}�w�Z[x v�Z,}�Z[x ��giZ,}BwyK=L`w�Z[U=d8M�S�UHw�Z[vyZ,k³{�M�v�wyK�Z

xzOek,�jgeL`wyOiw�S4kqZBMHd�Z,L`UmM�v2L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZT��L�pTZ[vy�z}�xsL`gtg.UHS�x^�=Z[v*M,{Ck�L,w�L^d[L`Um}�S �sd�Z�wyM�w�v�L�d.-z}�M�giS�w�OiM�U=}

M`{�OekqZ,L`gtO(�[Z�k xzMHkqZ[ge}�wyK�Z[vyZ[M`{ � MHkHgiOiU�\sL`U=k h2K�OtgjV � ¡�¡`£���h2K�Otg�L,U=k MHkHgiOiU�\�V � ¡�¡ � �)�DkHZ�L`U4k hBK�OigjV

� ¡�¡�¢�LqV(� � n!h2K�Otg � � ¡�¡�¢ � V�OtU:v�Z�pqOtZ[¨�OiU�\�wyK�OP}�¨*M�v - V�d�M�U=d8gtS=kqZ,kzwyK=L`w!wyK�Z¤UHS�x^�=Z[v*M,{�k�L`w�L v�Z'��S�Otv�Z,k

w�M�w�v�L�d - L xzMHkqZ�g�}�M�giS�w�OiM�U ¨�Otw�Kmw�K�Z � � � d[L`U®�=Z^d8M�x�u=L`v�L`��gtZ¤w�M�w�K�Z�UHS�x^�.Z�v�M`{�wyK�Z�xzMHkqZ�g�"¸}

kqM�xzOiU=L,Uqw�VqgtOiU�Z,L,v�gt� S�U4}Dw�L,��giZ�L,U=kRU�M�U�giOtU�Z,L,v�gi�^Z��TS�OigtOi��v�L`wyZ,k xzMHkqZ�} � }DZ�Z¤L,gP}�MRh2K�Otg)L`U=ks��kqZTV � ¡�¡`£�V

L`U4k:oBZ[Z~V � ¡�¡�ª � n

�jU=kqZ[Z,k VqM�S�vB¨�M�v - V L�}�¨*Z[gtg)L�}�M�w�K�Z[v!k�L`w�L^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�Um}DwyS=kqOtZ,}�{�M�v2w�K�Z�w�vyM�u�Oed[L`g)��L�d8O��.d�wyK=L`w

v�Z�gi��M�UswyK�Z �1L`gtxsL`U)�4giw�Z�v � J�L,U�Z ²��@´� i° V � ¡�¡�ªqV � ¡�¡ � � L`U=kzwyK�Z � � � � �CZ[vyv�M�U ²���´� i° V � ¡�¡�¡ � }DS�\�\�Z�}Dw

w�K4L`w2w�K�Z1UHS�x �=Z[vCM,{CM��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}�U�Z[Z,kqZ�kRd�L`Us�=Z¤L�}B}�xsL`gtg(L�}�wyK�Z1UqS�x^�=Z[vCM`{�kHZ[\�vyZ[Z,} �§M`{ ��{�v�Z�Z,kqM�x

v�Z'��S�Otv�Z,k:wyMmkqZ,}�d�v�Oi�=Z^w�K�Z�}D��}DwyZ[x "b}�Z[pTM�giS�wyOiM�U M,pTZ[v!wyK�Z^w�Oix�Z¤OiUHw�Z�v�p�L`g�M,{�M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U(ns|_}�¨�Z

v�Z'��S�Otv�Z2w�M^kqZ�}�d8vyOi�=Z!L�d[d8S�v�L`wyZ[gi��L¤gPL,v�\�Z�v�{�v�L�d8w�OtM�UzM,{�wyK�Z!p�L`vyOPL,U=d8ZTVHw�K�Z!UHS�x^�=Z[vCM`{)xzMHkqZ�}�v�Z'��S�Otv�Z,k

w�M�d[L,u�w�S�vyZ¤wyK=L`w�{�v�L�d8w�OtM�U:OtU=d8vyZ,L�}�Z,}8V=L,U=k:L�gPL,v�\�Z�vBUHS�x^�.Z�v*M`{IM��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}B¨�Oigtg��=Z¤U�Z[Z,kqZ,k n K�Oe}

UHS�x �=Z[v�d[L,U^}Dw�OtgigH�=ZBx^S=d�K¤}�xsL`gtgiZ[v)w�K4L`U^w�K�Z�xzMHkHZ[g�"b}3UHS�x^�.Z�v(M`{(\�v�Oek,�ju=M�OiUHw�M�vC}Du=Z,d�w�v�L,g�� d8MTZ�� d8OiZ�Uqw

p�L`vyOPL`��giZ,}�V�Z[pTZ[U {�M�vBx^S=d�K xzM�v�Z1K�Ot\�K�gt� vyZ,}DM�gipTZ,ksL`U4kRv�Z�L`giOe}DwyOPdBxzMHkHZ[gP}�n*QTOixzOtgPL,v*L,v�\�S�xzZ[UHw�}�L,u�u�gi�

w�M^w�K�Z�}DO �[Z!M,{�L c:M�UqwyZ J�L,v�giM^Z[U=}�Z[x^��giZ2v�Z��TS�Otv�Z,k?{�M�vBwyK�Z�L�d[d8S�v�L`wyZ¤L,U=k:Z�� d8OiZ�UqwCu=Z[vD{�M�v�xsL,U=d8Z1M`{

L`UmZ[U=}�Z[x ��giZ1�1L`gtxsL`U��=gtw�Z[v � }DZ�Z¤L,gP}�M��!Z[u�u=Z[U�ZTV�������� ��c:Otw�d�K�Z[gtg�L,U=k:]2M�S�wyZ�-�L`xzZ[v�VH������� � n

K�Z!{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w!Z��Hu=Z[v�OtxzZ[UHw�}Cd[L`vyv�OtZ,kzM�S�w2OiU ��L`vyw!�y��M`{�M�S�v!}�w�S=kH�RS4}DOiU�\z}�Oix^S�gPL,w�Z,kzk�L`w�L�{�v�M�x

L v�M�u�OPd�L`g � d8Z�L`U&�yh2giM��4L`g�|�w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z � � h!| � � v�M�u�OPd�L`g�|�wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ � d8Z,L`U � | � � �~giO -TZ

L`vyv�L[�EL�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyZ,kROtUqwyMzw�K�Z�xzMHkqZ[g#"¸}�MHd8Z,L`U�OPd�d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw_}DS�\�\�Z,}�w¤w�K4L`w!M�U=d8Z^Lzv�Z[geL`wyOipTZ[gt�zgPL,v�\�Z

}DZ�wBM,{CM��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}BOe}BL[p�L`OtgPL`��giZTVHOiU�Otw�OPL,giO �,L`wyOiM�UsM,{Cw�K�Z1S�U4d8M�S�u�giZ,ksMHd8Z,L`UEx�MHkqZ[g�x�Oi\�KHw�}�S � d8Z�{�M�v

Page 34: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©`£

\�MTMHk d8M�S�u�giZ,kz{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w�}8V(\�OipTZ[Umw�K�Z L`w�x�MT}Du�K�Z[v�Z "¸}�v�L`u�OPkEL�k�N�S=}DwyxzZ[UHwBwyMzw�K�Z�MHd�Z,L`U®}�w�L`wyZTn¤QTwyOigig§V

{�S�vyw�K�Z[v_Oixzu�vyM,pTZ[x Z�Uqw�}�M`{@w�K�Z � r�Q � {�M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw�}�d�L`U®�.Z^xsL�kqZ¤�H�:S=}�OiU�\swyK�Z^d8M�S�u�giZ,k:x�MHkqZ[g)OiU

w�K�Z^L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�Usu�v�MHd8Z�}�}8n��jwBOe}!}DK�M`¨�UEOtU®��L`vyw1���*wyK=L`w1wyK�Z � � h_| � | � �zk�L,w�LsL`vyZ^}DS � d8OtZ[Uqw

{�M�v_\�MTMHk:{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w1}*-HOigtg(OiU:wyK�OP}�OiUHw�Z�v�xzZ,kHOPL`wyZBx�MHkqZ[gjV=L,U=kEd[L,UE�.Z�Z �qu=Z,d8wyZ,kzw�Mzu�v�M,pqOekqZ�L�d[d�S�v�L,w�Z

Z[U�M�S�\�KmOiU�Otw�OeL`g(}�w�L,w�Z,}*{�M�v2L�xzM�vyZ1d8M�xzu�giZ�w�Z_d8M�S�u�giZ,kzxzMHkqZ�gjVT¨�K�Z[UsS=}�OiU�\^w�K�Z � � � n

K�Z¤U�Z��qw_}DwyZ[u:wyM,¨�L`v�kEL`U®L�kqp�L`U=d8Z�kR{�M�v�Z�d[L�}�w*� L`U=k,� L`U4L`gi��}DOe}1d8��d�giZ!OtUEL?{�S�gtgi�sd�M�S�u�gtZ,k³h1J�c

OP}1w�MmZ���L,xzOiU�Z � � � M�v�}�giOi\�Kqwygi�®}�S��=M�u�wyOixsL,g �4giw�Z�v�u=Z[v�{�M�vyxsL`U=d�Z � MHkqgtOiU�\ L`U=k'JCM�K�U(V � ¡�¡`£��

h2K�Oig§V � ¡�¡�¢ � OtU®Lz}DM�xzZ[¨�K=L,w!xzM�v�Z¤vyZ,L`gtOP}�w�OPd1d8M�S�u�gtZ,k:MHd8Z,L,U&��L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z[v�Z�xzMHkHZ[gjn1QTS=d�K®L xzMHkqZ[g

d8M�S�gPkm}Dw�Otgig)K=L[pTZ�L`UEMHd8Z,L,U�OPd�d�M�xzu=M�U�Z[Uqw�gtO(-TZ1w�K�Z¤M�U�Z�S=}DZ,k:K�Z[v�ZTn2�jw2¨*M�S�gPk:OiU4d8giS=kHZTV�K�M,¨*Z[pTZ�v[V=L

u�vyM�\�U�MT}DwyOPd2L`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyOPd*d�M�xzu=M�U�Z[Uqw�V�L,gi�=Z[OtwCLB{§L`Oivygi��}DOtxzu�gtZ�M�U�ZTn � M�v�L!d8M�S�u�giZ,k�}���}�w�Z[x ¨�OiwyK��.M�w�K

d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw�}�M`{2h1J�c d8M�x�u�giZ��HOiw���VqK�M,¨�Z[pTZ[v[V�OtwBOe}�U�M�w1d8gtZ,L`v2K�M,¨ d8giM~}DZ�w�MzM�u�w�OtxsL`gtOiw��sL?{�Z,L�}DOt��giZ

k�L,w�L¤L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�Uz}ydfK�Z�xzZ�d[L,Uz�=ZTn K�Z2v�Z��TS�Otv�Z[xzZ�Uqw)w�M L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�Z�w�K�Z�{§L,Oiv�gt�^}Du=L,v�}�Z!M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}

d8S�vyv�Z[UHw�gt�^L[p�L,OigeL`��gtZ�OtUqwyM�}�S=dfKmL�d8M�xzu�gtZ���xzMHkqZ[g§Vq¨�K�OedfK�K=L�}�pTZ[v��^kHO � Z[v�Z�Uqw2kqM�xzOiU4L`UHw�wyOixzZ_}�d�L`giZ�}

OiUEOtw�}!MHd8Z,L,U�OPd�L,U=k�L,w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�OPd�d8M�x�u.M�U�Z[UHw�}�V�u=M�OiUHw�}!wyMRwyK�Z^U�Z[Z,kR{�M�v¤L�kqp�L`U=d�Z,k L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�U

w�Z�dfK�U�M�giM�\��zwyK=L`w2�HOiZ[gek�}�OtU�OiwyOPL`g �=Z[gek�}*d8M�U=}DOe}DwyZ[Uqw�¨�Otw�Ksw�K�Z�{�M�v�Z,d�L�}Dw_kq�HU=L`x�OPd[}�n

������������ ������� �������� Â�� �"!$#&%('*)+�,�!.-0/�%213/2-04�56'7%(8:9�;=<>!.4%(?0@*%('A,�1B#&%('A)�C!ÎCÄ�@D�,�E)2! �FC Å64-

5G%('.!A@*�H8FI 1J,�@A�JE KL4�3!*?�I !A!A�"%(E !�,�E 4M� -01HN25OI 1�!DI K2K�-0!A@A�"%(E !=%(E�@D� �"!$#&%('*)HÒ�,�E 4mÍ.C�Ê$C.ÆP�"1"1"-�'=5G%('.� �"!Q� -01JN

%(ELK�-�E -�'A,R@A�JE K�#S� �"@A-TE %��"!A-T#��"@D��,UN'V-0!A?�'V�JW-04M?0%�/X,�'7�H,2E ?0-�C.YZ-F@D�,�E)[@D� -F@\#&%�,2E %(E�]8F%(I !$'7-0/(�"-0#&-�'V!

5G%('.@D� -0�J'^?0%(E !A@D'AI ?0@*�3/2-�?0%(8_8F-�E�@*!�C1ÆZ`a,�1"!A%L#��"!D� -0!F@A%P,R?b) E %�#�1"-04K�-T@D� -T!c,�WW,�@A�"?�,�1&� %�!DN �"@D,�1"�"@V]Z%�5

@D� -!Ç�,�W% 'A,�@A%��J'V-F4-BÆed-0@d-0% 'V%�1"%�K��"-*À.]�E,�8Q�3fI -F4�IzÎCÊ�Í�Ä�Ò�Ñg?0%�1"-�Êh%('A8_,�1"-�ÄINid-�'V�"-�I'V-,Ò=ÐB,�'V�"!�Ò�,�E 4L@D� -

!DINNj%('V@.%�5k,Ulm�"!A�"@A�JE K�Î��,��J'm%�5&@D� -!Ën'V-�E ?0� ÁS?�,R4kd-�8F�"-F4-0!2Ä ?0�"-�E ?0-0!�C_Îo%(8TNI @D,�@*�3% E,�1p'7-0!A%(I'V?0-0!.#&-�'V-

N'V%�/ �34-04+8_,��JE 13]�W2]T@D� -*À.-�N,�'V@D8F-�E2@q%R5 Á�@D8F%2!DN� -�'V�"?2Ä ?0�"-�E ?0-0!�ÒHÏ*ÎCÇ�Á!Ò(@c� -2Ä,�E1À.�"-0K�%1ÄINj-�'V?0%(8TNI @A-�'

Î&-�E2@A-�'�Ò,�E 4�@D� -2ÄINj-�'V?0%(8TNI @*-�'�Î&-�E2@A-�'&%R5�ËB1"%('V�"4�,1Ä @c,�@A-�ÏSE �"/�-�'V!*�3@V]�C�Â�� �"!r'7-0!A-�,�'V?0�T#�,�!&!DINNj%('V@A-04�W�]

Page 35: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©�ª

Ê�Á@Ä�Á K 'A,�E2@A!)ÊCÁm` � ������� �iÆZ` ,�E 4�9�; fÒ�Ê�ÁS` � ����� �iÆZ` ,2E 4 ÎCÄ�fÒ�,�E 4 Ê*É�Á�Á K 'A,�E2@)ÊCÁ�����`BÐ�� ��� ���,À2Ê �,�@CÏ*ÎCÇ�Á ,�E 4+W2]�,1Ï�ÎIÁ@Í 5 -01"1"%�#�!D� �JN[5 % 'q@c� -_Å�Í�Å�ÎCÐ�ÐB�"1"%�@�Ði'V%��V-0?0@S,�@CÏ*ÎCÄ�À �G9�; 0C

� ! ¤"��2#!� ��� 7���02"� ��2#!")�

Â�� -.8F% 4-01�4-0!A?�'V�JN @A�"%(E�� -�'V-.�"!SW'V�"-c5p,2E 4�#k-m'V-c5 -�'i@D� -$'7-�,�4-�'i@A%����JE�,�E 4^Êh-0-01"�JE � � � � �5G%('B4-0@D,R�31"!�CÂ�� -m5G-0-04�W,�?0)�W-0@V#&-0-�E�@D� -.% ?0-�,�E�,�E 4�,�@D8F%�!cN� -�'V-.@D,�)�-0!�N 1J,�?0-=-0/�-�'V]U@A�J8F-$!A@*-�N�C

´q°�� �=²�­,¿8²y´T¯

�� -_%(?0-�,�E 4]�E,�8Q�3?0!=�"! 4-0!*?�'V�JW-04 W�]�1"�JE -�,�'=!D�,�1"1"%X# � #o,R@A-�'m-0f�I,R@A�"%(E !.5G%('m@D� -T?�I'*'V-�E�@*! ,�E 4 ,

E %(E 1"�JE -�,�'.-0fI,�@A�"%(E[5G%('h@D� -F!A-�, � !DI' 5O,�?0-F@A-�8TNj-�'A,�@DI'7- �PÄTÄT C�Â�� -F4]E,�8F�"?�,�1B/�,�'V�J,�W 1"-0! ,�'7- @c� -$@D�'V-0-

/�-01"% ?0�3@V]Z?0% 8TN%(E -�E2@A!�������! "�!# f�,�E 4Z@D� -_@D� -�'A8F% ?01"�HE -�4-�N @c� ,�E % 8T,�1"]%$�CTYZ-T1"�"!A@T,�E 4Z-'&N 1J,��JEM@D� -

N,�'A,28F-0@A-�'i/X,�1JI -0!.�JE^�,�W 1"- � C

� � Q�Q �)( � | � � r

Â�� -.-0fI,�@A�"%(E 5 % 'q@c� -2ÄTÄT �JE�@c� -.-0f�I,�@*%('V�J,�1 W,�E 4��"!

*"+*-,/. � W

*"+*102.23 ��#

#4 W65 7

� +98:+ � �<; 8 3 � 8 �= � �=>@? � +98A+ =% .CB � � +C8A+ � �DE� �iÁ �

#S� -�'V- + �"!S@c� -.@A-�8TN-�'*,�@DI'V-=%�5p@c� -.!DI' 5O,�?0-$8F�F&(-04�1J, ]�-�'�Ò"� W @D� -�G0%(E,�1�?�I'A'V-�E2@��JE+@c� �3!m!DI' 5O,�?0-.1J, ]�-�'�Ò"#@D� -./�-�'7@A�"?�,�1�!DI' 5O,�?0-.?�I'A'7-�E�@�Ò�,�E 4% �= @D� -F8F-�'V�"4�"%(E,�1�!DI' 5O,�?0-.?�I'A'V-�E2@S,�@h@D� -$E %('V@D� -�'*E�W%(IE 4�,�'7]�%�5p@c� -

-0fI,�@A%('V�J,�1�W%�&nC(Ä ]8T8F-0@D'7]�%�5)ÄTÄTÂ ,�E 4�,�E2@A�"!A]�8_8F-0@D'V]T%R5H �= ,�'V-$,�!A!cI8F-04�C

Â�� -F-0fI �"13�JW'V�JI8 /�,�1JI - + �$%�5�ÄTÄT �"!=!A-0@r,R@ �� � Ò B � D � �_4�, ](! � W �"!.@D� -1Êh-0#�@A%(E �J,�EL4�,�8TN �JE K

@A�J8F-,Ò >@? �"!&@D� -�#��"4@D�_%�5�@D� -SWj%I&�Ò,�E 4 + = �"!k@c� -�%�J � -0f�I,R@A%('V�J,�1HÄTÄT ,�@&,.4�"!A@D,�E ?0- >@? 5O'V%(8 @c� -�-0f�I,R@A%('0C

Â�� -.4-�N @D� ! 4 W ,2E 4 4 a %R5 @D� -.@V#&%$1J, ]�-�'V!�,�'V-.@D,2)�-�E�� -�'7-.@A%TW- � �F8a,�E 4 � ���F8�Ò #S� �"1"- 4 WK5 7 D ��� 8 �3!

@D� -.4-�N @D�[!A?�,�1"-$@c�,�@&?b�,�'*,�?0@A-�'V�FG0-0!.IN�#&-01"1"�HE K�%R5p@D� -.!cIW !DI' 5O,�?0-$@A-�8_N-�'A,�@cI'V- + � �<; C

Page 36: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

© �

Á.E�,�E,�1"] @A�"?�,�1PÒ�!D8Q%(%�@c�U/�-�'V!A�"%(E 3 � 0 &%�5B@D� -$;h-�, /(�"!A�"4-=56IE ?0@*�3% E 4 � 0 i�"!.I !A-04+� -�'V-,Ò

4 � 0 D�� � � 0�� �TÒ� 0�� ��� �iÁ �

!A-0-2ÑgfnC � �'&�JE�@D� -$E -'& @S,�NNj-�E 4� &�CÂ�� -$8Q-�'V�"4�3% E,�1 /2-013% ?0�"@V] = ?�,�E�Wj-$%(W @D,R�HE -04�W�]��nE �"@A-$4� J�-�'V-�E ?0�JE K�%�5B@D� -.?0%(E2@A�JE(I �"@V]U-0f�I,�@*�3% E�

� �=>H? D

#4 W

8 * � W*10 �iÁ �

�� -.!DIW !cI' 56,R?0-.@A-�8TN-�'*,�@DI'V- + � �<; �"!SN,�'A,�8Q-0@A-�'V�FG0-04+,�!�,^56IE ?0@A�"%(EU%R5 @D� -�'A8F% ?01"�JE -$4-�N @D��,�E % 8T,�1"]/$�� ,

4-0-�N-�'h@D� -�'A8Q%(?01"�JE -F�3!.,�!A!*%(?0�J,�@A-04�#h�3@c��#�,�'A8F-�'&IN2#&-0131"-04�#�,�@A-�'V!� + � �<; D + � � . � + � 8A+ � � &@D,2E� � $ . $ �

$�� �iÁ

� � � J � |!r�J � �2� � r Q

Â�� -i/�-�'V@A�"?�,�1 � 8F-�,2E 8Q%�@A�"%(E !B,�W%�/�-i@D� -q@D� -�'*8F%(?01"�JE -S,�'7-qK�%�/�-�'AE -04FW�]=@D� -q1"�JE -�,�'V�FG0-04�'V-04�I ?0-04 � K('A, / �"@\]!D�,�1"1"%�# � #�,�@A-�'&-0fI,�@A�"%(E !h%(E�,�� � N 1J,�E -F�JE�@D� -.1"%(E K � #o, /�-$,2NN'V%�&(�J8T,�@*�3% E�Ò

� * �*-, 8 ��� .9B � D 8�� * $*10 . �� 4 � �iÁ �

��� � D 8�� * $* � � �iÁ��#

� * $*-, . 4 � * �* 0 .* * � .2B $�D ��� �iÁ �

;h-�'V- � �"!�@D� - G0%(E,�1�#h�HE 4L!A@D'V-0!*!�Ò � �"!m@D� -.%(?0-�,2E �3?=4-�E !A�"@V],Ò 4 D 4 W . 4 a �"!m@D� -.@A%�@c,�1�4-�N @D��%�5B@D� -.@V#&%

1J, ]�-�'V!�Ò,�E 4 B D�� � � � ]' � W �"!�@D� -m4�,�8TN �JE K�'A,�@*-&5 % 'B@D� -./�-�'7@A�"?�,�1 � 8F-�,�E_?�I'A'V-�E2@�C)Â�� -.'V-01J,�@A�"/�-$,�4��AI !A@D8Q-�E�@

@A�J8F-.?0% - ��?0�"-�E�@ � 8Q-�,�!DI'V-0!�@c� -$'A,�@A�"%F%�5 @D� -.@*�H8Q-.!A?�,�1"-.%�5q,�4��7I !*@D8F-�E2@oW2]U%(?0-�,�E �"?.4]E,�8F�"?0!m@A%F@D� -$E -0@

@A�J8F-=!A?�,�1"-.%�5)ÄTÄTÂ ?0�,�E K�-.@D�'7%(I K(�U@D� -2ÄTÄTÂ -0fI,�@A�"%(E�C

�� -mI !DI,�1�W%(IE 4�,2'V]T?0%(E 4�"@A�"%(E !i5G%('B@D� -m!D�,�1"1"%�# � #�,�@A-�'g-0f�I,�@*�3% E !k�JE_@D� -m13% E K � #�,�/2-S,�NN'V%�& �H8_,�@A�"%(E

,�'V-$I !*-04

� D � ,�@ 0 D 0�! � �iÁ��#" ��## ��$%��D �a,R@ 0 D 0'& � �iÁ

Page 37: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©�¢

#S� -�'V- 0�! ,�E 4 0'& 1"%(?�,�@*-$@D� -.-�,�!*@A-�'AE�,�E 4�#&-0!A@A-�'*E�W%(IE 4�,�'7�3-0!8Òn'V-0!cN-0?0@A�"/�-01"]�C

`^�3/2-�EU@D� -.1"�HE -�,2'm?b�,�E K2-.%�5p/�,�'V�J,�W 1"-0!

� D $ . � � �iÁ � �#

� D $ 8 ��� �iÁ ���

@D� -m!D�,�1"1"%�# � #�,�@A-�'B-0fI,�@A�"%(E ! �iÁ � �� �iÁ � �?�,�E�Wj-r'7-0#S'V�"@A@A-�E_#��"@D� � Ò � Ò�,2E 4 T,�!i@D� -S4-�Nj-�E 4-�E�@h/X,�'V�J,�W 1"-0!�Ò

�JE�E %(E 4�J8F-�E !A�"%(E,�1qIE �"@A!�C�Ë�%�1"1"%�#��JE K���ÊBÒ�#&-$@c'AIE ?�,�@A-=@D� -$-0fI,�@A�"%(E !m!A%U%(W @D,��JE -04+@*%��JE ?01JI 4-T%(E 1"]+@c� -

�m-01"/(�JEZ8Q%(4-F,�E 4�@D� - �n'7!A@�!A-0/�-�E[!A]8T8F-0@D'V�"?!Í&%�!A!DW2]+8F% 4-0!�C�Â�� - 'V-0!cI 13@*�HE K�-0fI,�@A�"%(E !h5G%('&@D� -.% ?0-�,�E �"?

#�, /�-S?0% - ��?0�"-�E2@A! � ,�'V-

� � **-, .CB � � .* � �*10 D � ��� �iÁ � �

��� 8 � � � **-, .2B � 8* � *10 D�� � 8�� ��� 8 � � W � a � � a �� D � � ��� � �F� � � �iÁ �<�

� -�'V- � U�3!.@c� - G0% E,�1�#��JE 4Z!A@c'V-0!A!SN'V%��\-0?0@*-04+%(E2@A%U%(?0-�,�E �"?T8F% 4-�� Ò � �F�"!S@D� -T,�8_N 13�"@DI 4-_%�5q@D� - �m-01"/ �JE

#�, /�-,Ò,�E 4 � Ò���D � � � � � �F� � Ò�,�'V-.@D� -$,�8_N 13�"@DI 4-0!m%�5B@D� - �n'7!A@&!A-0/�-�E^Ío%�!A!DW2]�#�, /�-0!�C

Â�� -.� %('V�FG0%(E2@D,�1�?0%(8TNj%(E -�E�@*! � � ,�E 4/ � %R5 @c� -S/�-�'7@A�"?�,�1 � !D� -�,�'&?�I'A'7-�E�@�,�'V-hK�%�/�-�'AE -04�W�]T!*@A-�,�4] � !A@D,�@A--0fI,�@A�"%(E !.4%(8F�JE,�@*-04 W�]L4�,�8TN �JE K+4�I -_@A%��JE2@A-�' 5O,�?0�J,�1B!A@D'7-0!A!$W-0@V#&-0-�EL@D� -T1J, ]�-�'V! �G9�-�W �J,�)�,�E 4sÎ�,�E -,Ò

� � � B � � � 8 ��� � D � 4 a� 4 W 4 � �iÁ �

B � � . ��� � � D ��� �iÁ �<�

#S� -�'V- B � D � � 4�,�] ! � W �"!m@D� -.4�,�8TN �JE KU?0%(- ��?0�"-�E2@�5G%('&@c� -.!D� -�,�'&?�I'A'7-�E�@A! C

�� -h/�-�'V@A�"?�,�1�?0%(8TN% E -�E�@ # � %�5�@D� -m!D� -�,�'g?�I'A'V-�E2@A!q?�,2ETW-m?�,�1"?�I 1J,�@A-04U5O'V%(8 @D� -m?0%(E2@A�JE(I �"@V]T-0fI,�@A�"%(E

I !A�JE K�� � ,�E 4 � # � D 4 W �

* � �*10 .

* �* � � �iÁ � �#

�% '&!A�J8TN 1"�"?0�3@V],�@D� -.@c�'V-0-.?0%(8TNj%(E -�E�@*!S%�5�@D� -$!D� -�,2'&?�I'A'V-�E2@S,�'V-.#m'V�"@A@A-�E�,�! � � D�

� � � �iÁ �<�

Page 38: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©��

�� D 8 >@?� 4 W

� �� 4 � �iÁ � �#

# � D 8 � � . 4 W �* �*10 � �iÁ �

� -�'V- � � 4 a�� 4 W B �F,�E 4�

� � � 4 W�� >�� � ÒB,�E 4 >�� �"!F@D� -�?0�,�'A,R?0@A-�'V�"!A@A�"?�8F-�'V�"4�"%(E,�1&1"-�E K�@D� !A?�,�1"-

4-0@A-�'A8Q�HE -04�W�]�@c� -.4�,�8TN �JE K�@*�H8Q-.!A?�,�1"-$%�5B/�-�'V@*�3?�,R1 8F�F&(�JE K� > �� B � � �iC»`° � �=²1´�� ��­`¹ � �=²��²

Â�� -.!*@A-�,�4]�'V-0!DN% E !A-$%�5B@D� - G0%(E,�1�#��JE 4 � !A@c'V-0!A!.,�E %(8T,�1"�"-0! � @*%�ÄTÄT ,�E %(8_,�1"�3-0! + ,�@�@c� -.-0f�I,�@*%('�"!

� � 0 � �' D��� � ��������� � " ���

� + ��� �� ����� � $�� 8 �

������ � " �

��� + ��� ���� � $�� � �iÁ � �#

;h-�'V-� �"!.,�E�,�8TN 1"�"@DI 4-=56,R?0@A%('�Ò B � �"!.,1Í�, ] 13-0�"K(�[5O'V�"?0@A�"%(E�4�I -F@A%UW%(IE 4�,�'7] � 1J, ]�-�'h@DI'AWI 1"-�E ?0-,Ò�,�E 4��Z�"!

,�EU% ?0-�,�E � ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V-.?0%(IN 1"�JE K+N,�'A,28F-0@A-�'0C

¿`°�� ¾���´��§­� ­��T¾P¿�´� �¹��§´��D²�´T¯�½s¿�­Tº � ¾P¯��

Á !D8Q%(%�@c�_56IE ?0@A�"%(EL@D�,R@r'V-0!*-�8 W 1"-0!.@D� -F8F-�,�E � ,�EE I,�1�%(W !A-�'V/2-04+#��JE 4�!A@D'V-0!*!S�JEL@D� -_ÐB,R?0� ��?T,�1"%(E K

@D� -.-0fI,�@A%('o�3!.I !A-04�@A%_!A-0@SINU@D� -FW,�!A�"?$!A@c,�@A-

� D ��� ���! I��� � � 8 ?0%�! a � � 0 8 0 � #"� 0 �

%$ � �iÁ � �

#��"@D� 0 � D ��� ��� > Ò2#S� -�'V- > �"!S@D� -$W,R!A�JE�#��"4@D��C

Â�� -F?0%(IN 1"-04M!A] !A@A-�8 �3!=!A-0@$IN�I !A�JE K+%(E - � #�, ]�&nI &L?0%('A'V-0?0@*�3% E �PÊh-0-013�JE�Ò � � � fÒ�#��"@D� @A%�@D,�1�#��JE 4

!A@D'7-0!A! � K��"/�-�E�W2]

� D � . � � �iÁ ���

� ��"!S4-�'V�"/�-04[56'7%(8 @D� -$,�@D8F%2!DN� -�'V�"? 'V-0!cN%(E !A-=@A%1ÄTÄTÂe,2E %(8T,�1"�"-0! + tÒ

+ D +C8 + � �iÁ � �

,�?0?0%('74�HE KU@A%1ÑBf�C �iÁ � �#0C

Page 39: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

©�¡

Å6@k�"!�?0% E�/�-�E �"-�E2@&@A%F�HE2@D'V% 4�I ?0-$,F'V-01J,�@A�"/�-.!DI'\56,�?0- � 1J, ]�-�'i?0% - ��?0�"-�E�@ � � #S� �"?b�U?0%(E2@D'V%213!&@D� -.,�E %(8_,�1"%(I !

!DI' 5O,�?0- � 1J, ]�-�'.?�I'*'V-�E�@*!$4�I -U@A%�?0%(IN 1"�JE K�C�Âh� -0!A-T?�I'A'V-�E2@A!=?�,�E�@D� I ! Wj- 'V-04�I ?0-04M%('^-0/�-�E�@DI'AE -04M%�J?0%(8TN 1"-0@A-01"]L@A%F-'&�,�8Q�HE -=@D� -0�J'�-!J�-0?0@A!h#��"@D� %(I @S,�J�-0?0@A�JE KT@c� -.?013�J8T,R@A%�1"%�K�]�

� � D � � � �iÁ ��

� D � . � �! � � �iÁ � �

# � D # � . � � # � � �iÁ � �#

;h-�'V- � � � � � # � ,�'V-F@D� -F/�-01"% ?0�"@\]�?0%(8_N%(E -�E2@A!$,�!A!*%(?0�J,�@A-04�#��"@D�L@D� -F?01"�J8T,�@A%213%2K��"?�,�1q#��JE 4Z!*@D'V-0!A!��#S� �"1"-

� � � � � # � ,2'V-.!D� -�,�'&?�I'*'V-�E�@*!S,�!A!A% ?0�J,�@A-04L#��"@D�U@D� -$?0% IN 13�JE K� # � D 8 � � . 4 W �

* � *10 � �iÁ � �

� D 8 � � � �iÁ � �#

Êh%�@A-.@D�,�@i5G%('&@D� -.4�,R@D,T,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E�-'&N-�'V�J8F-�E2@A!.� -�'V-,Ò � � 4% -0!rE %�@h4-�N-�E 4+% E � � C� ! ¤"��2#!� ����7���02"� /�B#!")�j+,"(���=���«&(� �����=���@��&("��

Â�� -F8F% 4-01 � -�'*'V%('m?0%�/X,�'7�H,2E ?0-�� �"!.4-�'V�"/�-04�5O'V%(8 @D� -F#��JE 4 � !A@c'V-0!A!.-�'A'V% 'V!�C�Ä �JE ?0-T@c� -�ÄTÄT -0f,�@A�"%(E

�iÁ � .�"!TE %(E 1"�HE -�,2'�Òq1"�JE -�,�'V�FG�,�@*�3% E ,�1"%(E K+@D� -�IN4�,R@A-04 @c'A,��V-0?0@A%('V]L�"!$-�8TN 1"%�]�-04M#S� -�E N'7%��V-0?0@A�JE K+@D� -

#��JE 4 � !A@D'7-0!A!S-�'*'V%('0C(Ä ?0� -�8T,�@A�"?�,�1"1"],Ò�%(I'&?0%(IN 1"-04L!A](!*@A-�8 ?�,�E�Wj-$#S'V�"@A@*-�EU�HE[4�"!A?�'V-0@A-^5 %('*8a,�!

+��� D� � + �� � W � � �� � W . � � + �� � W � � ���� W � ��� � W . �

�� � W '� � � � �� D > � � �

�� � W . > � � ��� � W . �

�� � W � � � � -�'V- � � '7-�N'V-0!A-�E2@A!$@D� -_!A@D,�@A-F/�-0?0@*%('h5 % '$,�1"1q@c� - � Ò � D ��� � ��� � � � � Ò�,�@.@A�J8F-_!A@A-�N��ÒB,�E 4

�� �"!F@D� -

#��JE 4 � !A@D'7-0!A!.-�'A'V%('m,�@��C�Ä �JE ?0-�@c� -$% ?0-�,�E �"?T#�,�/2-0!r�, /�-=!A�J8TN 1"-�1"�JE -�,�'.4]E,�8F�"?0!�Ò > � �� m,�E 4 > � �� S,�'7-1"�JE -�,�'=%(N-�'A,R@A%('V!�Ò�#m� �31"-�� �� �� m,�E 4 � �� �� �� &,�'V-UE %(E 1"�HE -�,2'.5OIE ?0@A�"%(E !T,�!A!*%(?0�J,�@A-04 #��"@D��@D� -�,R4/�-0?0@A�"%(E

@A-�'A8Q!��JE�@D� -2ÄTÄT -0fI,�@A�"%(E�C

Page 40: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£T�

i-0?�,�I !A-_%�5q@D� -T�JE2@A-�'A,�?0@A�"%(E %�5k@D� -T8F% 4-01B!A@D,R@A-F#��"@D�L@D� -�'A,�E 4% 8:E %��"!A-��Q�HE @D� -F#��JE 4Z!A@c'V-0!A!�Ò

5OIE ?0@A�"%(E � �"!./�-�'7]P'V%(I K �P,2E 4Z?�,�EE %�@$Wj-T�JE�@A-0K 'A,�@A-04��JE�@D� -F@D'A,R4�3@*�3% E,�1)Í&�"-�8T,�EE %('m-0/�-�EzÇ�-�Wj-0!AK(I -

!A-�E !A-�C�Éh5�@D� -T@V#&%U5G%('A8F!.%�5&?�,�1"?�I 1JI !�, /X,��"1J,�W 1"-U5 % 'm!A@A% ?b�,�!*@A�"?�N'V% ?0-0!A!A-0!�Ò�#&-TI !A-�@c� -�Ä @D'A,�@*%(E %�/(�"?0�

?�,�1"?�I 1JI ! � -�'V-�CBÏSE 1"�J)�-T@D� -=%�5G@A-�E � I !A-04sÅG@��%�?�,R13?�I 1JI !�Ò��"@$'V-0!A-�8FW 1"-0!.@D� -F@D'A,�4�"@A�"%(E,�1�?�,�1"?�I 1JI !$�JE�,�1"1"%X#h�HE K

@D� -.?0�,��JE+'AI 1"-^5 %('o4� J�-�'V-�E2@A�J,�@A�"%(E � -�C>K�CXÒ~Ð�-�E 1J,�E 4=Ò � � � CÂ�� -.1"�JE -�,�'V�FG0-04Z?0% IN 13-04L!A] !A@A-�8 �"!

+��� � � � + �� � W � � ���� W . � � + �� � W � � �� � W � ��� � W .

*�� � + �� � W � � �� � W � ��� � W * � �

��� W � � � � �� D > � � �

�� � W . > � � ��� � W . > � � �

���� W � � Â�� -$8F% 4-01 ÄTÄT -�'A'V%('7! � �� �JE^ÑgfnC � � � &,�@�K('V�"4+Nj%��JE�@�� �G,�E 4�@A�J8F-=!A@A-�N ��,2'V-.@D� -�EU?0%(8TNI @*-04�5O'V%(8 @D� -

#��JE 4 � !A@D'7-0!A!S-�'*'V%('V! ��q,2E 4

�� � W �GW%�@c��,�@�@A�J8F-=!A@A-�N ��Ò,�@�K 'V�"4+N%��JE2@A!��i,�E 4�� . � Ò�,�?0?0%('V4�JE KU@A%

� ��� , D 8

�� � 0

� � � 8 � � � W � + � 8 + � � W � � . � � 8 � � � =�� W � + � � W 8A+ � � � � W 8 �4 W65 7

� �# � 3 �# �# � . 3 �

# �# � � � + � 8:+ � � �<; � 8 � � �

� . �� � W .

4 W �� 0 �

�� � W 8 �

� � � � 8

�4 W� 8 � �� 3 �

� �� � .23 �

� �� � � + � 8 + = � �

� � W . �� �

� -�'V- �,�E 4

�,�'V-.@D� -=?0%(- ��?0�"-�E2@A!.,�!A!A% ?0�J,�@A-04+#h�3@c��@D� -=!D� -�,�'h?�I'A'V-�E2@A!�Ò�,�!h�HE ÑBf !�C%�iÁ ��� ��Á � �Ò#S� �"1"-

� , ,�E 4 � 0 ,�'V-m@D� -.@A�J8F-.!*@A-�N�,�E 4UK('V�"4�!DN,�?0�JE KHÒ�'7-0!DN-0?0@A�"/�-01"]�CCÊh%�@A-m@D�,�@&#&-S?0� % %�!A-$,=!D8F% %�@D�Q56IE ?0@*�3% E

3 � 0 &@A%�'7-�N'V-0!A-�E2@�@D� -$;h-�,�/ �"!A�"4-=56IE ?0@A�"%(E 4 � 0 i%�5)ÑBf�C �iÁ � �Ò

3 � 0 @D��� � . ,� �1$ � 0 � � � �#

�JE � � fÒ # �r,�E 4A ��$,�'V-$,�NN'V% N'V�J,�@A-.!A?�,�1"�JE K_56,�?0@*%('V!i5 % '&@D� -$'V-0!DNj-0?0@A�"/�- ,2'VK(I8F-�E2@A!�%�5 3 C

�� -$8Q%(4-01 � -�'A'V% '�?0%�/X,2'V�J,�E ?0- �a�"! �nE,�1"1"]�?0%(8TNI @*-04P,�!

� D� ��� � � � � � #S� -�'V-�� � �"!m@D� -.@D'A,�E !cN%�!A-.%R5p@D� -./2-0?0@A%('��&C

Page 41: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£ �

�Ã")�8"(�="��2&("$

Á.E 4-�'V!A%(E�ÒqÀTC�ÇgC�Â.CXÒ���C�Ä� -0�HE W,�I8�Ò�,2E 4��FC�;S,��JE -0!�Ò � � �� )À$,R@D,T,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E+�JEL% ?0-�,�E+8F% 4-01"!�C��������

��� � � ������ ��Ò����=Ò � � � � � � ���C&,�1"K�%�/(�JE 4=Ò(Í.C Ò.Á C�À$,R13?0� -�'�Ò�Æ C�`$� �"1PÒB,�E 4mÑ�C �.,R1HE, ],Ò � � � CÁ !A@A% ?0�,�!A@A�"? � 4]E,�8F�"? 8Q%(4-01g5 %('m@c� -

!cN,�@A�J,�1�!A@c'AI ?0@DI'V-.%�5�5G%('V-0?�,�!A@&-�'A'7%('&!A@D,R@A�"!A@A�"?0!�C�� ��� ������� �!�"�$#%� Ò�&�&'�=Ò � ��� � �� �C&,�@A@A�"!A@*�eÒ�ÀTC=Ä�CXÒ�,�E 4Z;��J'V!A@8Ò�Á C=Î.CXÒ � � CÅ E�@*-�'A,�EE I,�1B/X,�'7�H,2W �31"�"@V]Z�JE�@D� -F@D'V% N �3?�,R1q,�@D8F%�!cN� -�'V-$(�% ?0-�,�E

!*](!A@*-�8 B�JE &nI -�E ?0-F%�5p@c� -$W,�!A�"?$!A@c,�@A-.,�E 4+% ?0-�,�EUK�-0%(8Q-0@D'V]�C�)��+*�,.- �%� ��/+0$1.� Ò 23�.Ò � ��� � � �<��� � Ci-��'V�JE K�-�'�ÒqÀTCY C ÒTÆ C����PÒ�,�E 4^ÁFCHÇ�-0-0@c8T,�,TÒ � � �� Á.E��J8TN'7%X/2-04+?0%(IN 1"-04Z8F% 4-01�5G%('CÑ$Ê�ÄTÉ N'V-04�"?0@A�"%(E

,2E 4+�J8TN 1"�"?�,�@A�"%(E !.5G%('&% ?0-�,�E[�HE �"@A�J,�1"�FG�,�@A�"%(E�C�ÐB,�'7@�Å HÂh� -$% ?0-�,�E�4�,�@c,T,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(EzÄ ] !A@A-�8�C!� �4� �

���5���!���$#6�XÒ+&87�9=Ò � � �<� � � � � � Ci-�EE -0@A@�Ò.Á C Ë�CXÒ mC Ä�C�Î�� I,TÒ�ÀTC=Ñ�C�;S,2'A'V�"!A%(E�Ò�,�E 4RÆ C-��C�Æ�?�Ðq�,R4-�E�Ò � � �� �`.-�E -�'A,R13�FG0-04M�JE�/�-�'7!A�"%(E�%�5

Â�'V%(N �"?�,�1(Áh@D8F%�!DN� -�'7- � Ém?0-�,�EL4�,�@D,U,�E 4Z,U?0%(IN 1"-04 8F% 4-01B%�5q@D� -F@D'V%(N �"?�,�1(ÐB,�?0� ��?�C:)��!;=<>1?-:��,.�8Ò

&�&�Ò ��� ��� � ��� �� Ci-�EE -0@A@�Ò.Á C Ë�CXÒ mC Ä�C�Î�� I,TÒ�ÀTC=Ñ�C�;S,2'A'V�"!A%(E�Ò�,�E 4RÆ C-��C�Æ�?�Ðq�,R4-�E�Ò � ������ �`.-�E -�'A,R13�FG0-04M�JE�/�-�'7!A�"%(E�%�5

Â�'V%(N �"?�,�1(Áh@D8F%�!DN� -�'7- � Ém?0-�,�E �PÂ=Á*É%�4�,�@c,T,�E 4Z,T?0% IN 13-04M8F%(4-01�%�5q@D� -=@D'V%(N �"?�,�1(ÐB,�?0� ��?�C�ÐB,�'V@ÅjÅ �Â�� - � � � � �2Ç�,¤Êh�A@E,_,�E 4 � � � � �!ÑB1=Êh�A@E %�CB)���;=<>1C-D�4,.��Ò�&'E.Ò � Ò ��� � � � Ò � � � C

i%�K�K�!8Ò)ÀTC Ò$Æ Cq`$� �"1PÒ�,�E 4�Î.C�m-�NN-�EE -,Ò � � � �Á !A@D,�W �"1"�FG0-04 !DN,�'7!A- � 8T,�@D'7� &EÏ � À !AfI,�'V- � 'V% %�@�J8TN 1"-�8F-�E2@D,�@*�3% EM%�5o,[1H,2'VK�- � !A@D,R@A-F-'&(@A-�E 4-04 �.,�1J8T,�E ��13@*-�'0C "�� 0%�F���HGJI ��KML5� ,.� 5� �4,.1 ��� ��<

/ � -B� �%� 1?N - ��� * �5� 1?-:1C<O�4,.1 ���P��Q GSR � � #���,.1 ���8� 1 � �T�$,.� ���� < � � � � ��K GB05��� ��� � �5� ����U"V+�%W%�%�%U �T� 0 �

X4Y�Y�Z Ò�Y�Æ É�(`Â�À � Ê�%�� � � Ò YZ%('V1"4^Æ�-0@A-0% 'V%�1"%�K��"?�,�1=É.'VK(,2E � G�,R@A�"%(E�Ò � � � ��� C&I'VK�-�'V!8Ò�`TC Ò � �� (Â�� -2ÑB1�Ê��A@E %T!A@*%(?0�,�!A@A�"?=%�!A?0�"1"1H,R@A%('0C�;�<O1C-[��\ �%� �XÒ+&'�.Ò � � � � ����� CÎ�,�E -,ÒqÆ CHÁFC�,�E 4�Í.C1��C�ÐB,�@*@A%(E�Ò � � �ÊSI8F-�'7�3?�,R1q8F%(4-01�5G%('�1"%�# � 5O'V-0fI -�E ?0]+-0fI,�@A%('V�J,�1�4]E,�8F�"?0!�C])^�

������ �]GB05�5� ���_�� � Ò^&�2 Ò � � ��� � � ��� � CÎ�,�E -,Ò�Æ C�ÁFC ÒHÄ�CHÑhC�9�-�W �J,�)qÒ�,�E 4zÄ�CHÎ.CTÀ.%�1J,�E�Ò � ���� (ÑH&�Nj-�'V�J8F-�E�@c,�1�5G%('V-0?�,�!A@*!k%R53Ñg1 Ê��JE %�C!`���,.N �8Ò�E�7�&�Ò

Page 42: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£T�

� � � � � � � CÎ�,�E -,ÒqÆ CHÁFC Ò�Ä�C�ÑhCn9 -�W �H,2)HÒ�,�E 4�� C � I -,Ò � � � $Æ�%(4-01�!A@DI 4�"-0!.%�5q@c� -$1"%(E K � @A-�'*8 Wj-��,�/ �"%('m%�5�Ñ$Ê�ÄTÉFC

Å E^Êm,�@A�"%(E,�1�Í&-0!A-�,�'V?0�^Îo%(IE ?0�"1 �iÀTC�`TCTÆZ,�'V@*�HE !*%(E �$,���< � ÒHÑg4!�C �Ò�` ��,.N ��< ;=<>1C-:��,.����� 1?� R 1C<O1C, �[���

\��50�� K ��� , � ��;=� � ,.N �� V 1C-D�]/+0���<>� � Ò�ÊS,�@*�3% E,�1=Ám?�,�4-�8=] Ði'V-0!A!�Ò � � � ��� CÎ�,�E -,Ò�Æ C,ÁFC Ò`Á C��.,�N 1J,�E�ÒTÍ.CTÊ=C�Æ��"1"1"-�'�Ò�mC�Â�,�E KHÒTÑ�C�Î.C(;m,�?0)�-�'V@�Ò ,�E 4¤Á C ��C%kI !c,�1J,�?0?b� �PÒ � � �� .Æ ,2NN �HE K

@c'V%(N �"?�,�1�ÐB,R?0� ��?U!A-�,[13-0/2-01 !À$,R@D,�,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E #$1C��,L'V-04�I ?0-04M!A@D,�@A-F!DN,R?0- �.,�1J8T,2E ��1"@A-�'0C )^�

� � � � � �$� �!�"� � �XÒ�&���&�Ò ��� Ò � � � ��� Ò � ��� CÎ�� -�E�Ò�ÀTC Ò�Æ C,ÁFC�Î�,2E -,Ò~Ä�CTÑhC�9 -�W �H,2)HÒ,�E 4¤Á C��.,�N 1J,�E�Ò � � �� �Â�� -m�H8_N,�?0@�%�5�!A-�,=1"-0/�-01�4�,�@D,F,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E

% EF@D� -�Ç�,28F%(E2@q8F%(4-01�N'V-04�"?0@A�"%(E_%�5�@D� - � � � ( �*ÑB1HÊh�A@E %�C � � � � ����� ����� � �� �$,.,A�XÒ�7��.Ò � � ��� � � � �CÎ�� -�E�Ò.ÀTC Ò�Æ CHÁFC=Î�,�E -,Ò�,�E 4:Ä�C=Ñ�C�9�-�W �J,�)qÒ � �� CÂ�� -T�J8TN,R?0@.%�5IÊ*ÄTÎ�Á) #h�HE 4!=%(E�N'V-04�"?0@A�JE K�@D� -

� � � ( ��Ñg1�Êh�A@E %' �Á ?�,�!A-T!A@cI 4]P#h�3@c��@D� -�Ç�,28F%(E2@ � À.%(� -�'V@V]�Ñi,�'V@D�zÉ.W !A-�'7/X,�@A% 'V]Z8F%(4-01GC )^�

� � � � � �$� �!�"� � �XÒ�&��^2 Ò ��� Ò � � � � ��� Ò � � � CÀ.-0-,Ò�ÀTC�Ð�C Ò � � � É.E � 1"�JE -F-0!A@A�J8T,�@A�"%(E_%�5�-�'A'V% 'q/�,�'V�J,�E ?0-$N,�'*,�8F-0@A-�'V!g5 % 'q,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V�"?.4�,�@D,=,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E�C

� ��� �����5���!���$#6�XÒ�&'7�E=Ò ��� � � � ��� � CÑB/2-�E !A-�E�Ò `_C Ò � �� *Ä -0f�I -�E2@A�J,�1q4�,R@D,�,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E #��"@D�Z,�E %(E 1"�JE -�,�'.fI,�!A� � K�-0%2!A@D'V%(N� �"?�8Q%(4-01&I !A�JE K

Æ�%(E2@A-2Î�,2'V1"%�8F-0@D� % 4!�@A%F5G%('V-0?�,R!A@&-�'A'V%('i!A@D,R@A�"!A@A�"?0!�C�)�� � � � � ����� �!��� � � Ò8���=Ò � � � � � � � � � � CËnI�Ò�ÇBC � ÇBCXÒ=ÅAC�ËnI) I8F%('7�eÒ�,�E 4mÍ.C=Ê=C�Æ��"131"-�'�Ò � � � CËB�"@A@*�HE KL4]�E,28F�"?�8F% 4-013!=@A%�@D� -T`.-0%2!D,�@m!A-�,U1"-0/�-01

% W !A-�'V/X,R@A�"%(E !$�JEL@D� -F@D'V%(N �"?�,�1)ÐB,R?0� ��?_%(?0-�,�E�CBÐB,�'V@�ŧŠ=Á 13�JE -�,�'fÒ�#��JE 4 � 4�'V�"/�-�EM8F% 4-01 CP)�� ������ �

GB05�5� ���_�� � Ò87�E.Ò � � � � � � � � � CËnI) I8F%('7�eÒ$ÅAC Òq,2E 4 Ð�C�ÆZ,�1J,�E %�@A@A- � Ío� G'G0%213�PÒ � � � !ÁrEM,�NN'V%�& �H8_,�@A-��.,�1J8T,�E ��13@*-�'=5 % '.% ?0-�,�EM4�,�@D,

,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E� BÁrE�-'&,�8TN 1"-U#��"@D��,�E��"4-�,�1"�FG0-04 `$I 1 5�Ä @D'V-�,�8:8Q%(4-01GC�)�� � � � � ����� � ��� � � Ò &���=Ò

� ����� � � � � CËnI) I8F%('7�eÒ(Å*C Ò Í.C�Í�,�K(� IE,�@D��Ò(ÇBC �~ÇBC=Ë�I�Ò ,�E 4�� C�Î��,�%HÒ � �� *Ám!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(EM%�5�ÂCÉ�Ð$Ñ � (,Ð�%�!A-0�"4%(E

,R13@*�H8Q-0@A-�'�4�,R@D,F�JE�@*%�,FK�1"%(W,�1�%(?0-�,�E[?0�J'V?�I 1J,�@A�"%(E+8Q%(4-01 &;�%�# K�% % 4+,�'V-.@D� -F'V-0!DI 1"@A!� )�� � � � � ����� �

Page 43: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£T©

��� � � Ò�&�82 Ò � � Ò � � � � � Ò ��� � C`$,R!DN,�'V�PÒq`_C Òq,�E 4®Ä�C(Ñ�C(Î&% �E�Ò � �� �Îo%(E !A@D'AI ?0@*�3% EZ%�5.?0%('A'7-01H,R@A�"%(E 56IE ?0@*�3% E !T�JE @V#&%P,�E 4 @D�'7-0-

4�J8F-�E !*�3% E !�C��BN�� ,A�!)�� � ��� �!�T�$,.� �� ��/ � 0%� Ò�&'7��=Ò � � � � ����� C`.-01JW�ÒqÁ C �PÑg4�C �Ò � � *����+<O1C� K G �3,.1C-:��<�� � ,.1C-:��,.1 �4� C)Â�� -�ÆsÅÈÂ-Ðq'V-0!*!�ÒHÎ�,�8FW'V�"4K�-,Ò�Æ ,R!A!�C Ò ��� NN�C

`$� �"1PÒqÆ CXÒ � � � (ÁS4/�,�E ?0-0!m�HEL!A-0fI -�E2@A�J,�1 -0!*@A�J8T,�@A�"%(E 5 %('h,�@D8F%�!cN� -�'V�"?$,�E 4+% ?0-�,�E �"? &�%X#h!�CB)�� �T��,A� / � 06�

)8�5�8� � Ò��8�=Ò � � � � � C`$� �"1PÒTÆ C Ò ,�E 4 Ð�C`Æ ,R1H,2E %�@A@A- � Í&�FG'G0%�1"�PÒ � � � =À$,R@D,$,�!*!A�J8F�"1H,R@A�"%(EU�JE�8F-0@*-0%('V%�1"%�K�]T,�E 4U% ?0-�,�E %�K('A,2N��]�C * K #6�

� � � � � �$� �XÒ�E�E.Ò � � � � ���C`$� �"1PÒ�Æ C ÒB,�E 4 �FC)Å64-,Ò � �� 1Ñ@& @A-�E 4-04 �.,�1J8T,�E ��1"@A-�'V�JE K 5 %('=/�% 'V@A-'&�!A] !A@A-�8F! ¤Á.EM-'&�,28TN 1"-�%�5

% W !A-�'V/ �HE K � !A](!*@A-�8 4-0!A�"K(E�C(À$,�@D,*Ám!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E� 3Á Ê�-0#�Â�% %�1 5G%('(Æ�% 4-01"�HE KF@D� -�Ém?0-�,�E_�JE�,.`^13% W,�1

Îh�,�E K�-_Ð�-�'7!DN-0?0@A�"/�-,ÒqÐ C'k'*,�!A!A-�I'�,2E 4���CHÎ.C�;=CHÊh�J� %(I 1 � ÑB4!�C fÒ~ÄN'7�HE K2-�' � lB-�'V1J,�KHÒ � � � � � � C`$� �"1PÒ�Æ C Ò,�E 4�Í^C�Â�%(41"�JE KHÒ � � �� ( '*,�?b)2�JE K ,R@D8F%�!DN� -�'7�3?=�JE !A@D,�W �"1"�"@A�"-0!$#��"@D�[@D� - �.,�1J8T,2E ��1"@A-�'�Ò�ÐB,�'V@�ÅjÅ

Âo#k% � 1H, ]�-�'�Í&-0!DI 1"@A!�C!� ��� �[���5���!���$#6�XÒ�&'7^2 Ò � � � � � ��� � C`$� �"1PÒ�Æ C Ò,�E 4�Ê=C����J,�E KqÒ � � �� )Í&-0?0-�E2@h5 %('7-0?�,�!A@�!D)2�"1"1�5G%('&@D� -!ÑB1 Êh�A@E %�(,Ä %(I @c� -�'AEzÉm!A?0�"131J,�@*�3% E�C � � � � ����� �

��� � � � �$,.,A�XÒ'7��=Ò ����� � �<� C`$� �"1PÒ�Æ C Ò�,�E 4zÁ C�Y C�Í&% W-�'V@A!*%(E�Ò � ������ �Ä %�1"/(�JE K�N'V%(W 1"-�8F!.#��"@D��`2ÎIÆP!� k`^-�E -�'A,�1�?0�H'7?�I 1H,R@A�"%(EZ8F% 4-01"!

,2E 4P@c� -0�H'.'7%�1"- �JEL@D� -F?01"�J8T,�@A-T8F% 4-01"�HE K�� �"-�'A,�'V?0��]�C � � � � ��<�;=1 0$N <O�4,.1 ��� � �$K �$< \ ��#$�$< � �+-D� � ,��

� � , U " � � � � , � ��K�� N ,.N ��Ò�ÀTCHÍh,�E 4�,�1"1 � ÑB4�C �Ò`ÁS?�,R4-�8F�"?�Ði'V-0!A!�ÒTÄ,�E?À.�"-0K�%HÒ�NN � � � � � � � C`.�"1"1PÒ(ÁFC=Ñ�C Ò � ���� �Ä %(8Q-T!A�J8TN 1"-�!A%�1JI @A�"%(E !=5G%('.� -�,�@$�JE 4�I ?0-04 @D'7%(N �"?�,�1B?0�J'V?�I 1J,�@A�"%(E�C�BN � ,A� )^�"� ��� �

� �$,.� �� �!/ � 0%� Ò�&��9=Ò � � � � � C`$'*,��,�8�Ò�Ê$C�Ñ�CXÒ�Â.C�Ð�C &,�'*E -0@A@�Ò�,�E 4zÆ C�Ç�,�@*� 5�Ò � ��� �Îo%(E !A�"4-�'A,�@A�"%(E !.%R5q@D� -TN'V-04�"?0@D,�W �"1"�3@V]Z%R5�Ñ)Ê*ÄTÉ

#h�3@c�+,F1"%�#&-�' � %('V4-�'&?0% IN 13-04�8F% 4-01 C V G � * ` � ,.� � Ò��Ò ��� � �<� C;m,�%HÒ�9BCXÒ � �� �\���,.� * �5� 1C-:1?<>��,.1 ���]Q �4�L�� ,.� � ��� N��4< ;=<>1?-:��,.� ��; � � ��� � � � K 1C0$,.1 ��� C�Ði��C ÀTCHÀ.�"!A!*-�'V@D,�@A�"%(E�Ò

À.-�N @ CB%�5(Á�@D8F%�!cN� -�'V�"?2Ä ?0�3-�E ?0-0!8Ò=ÏSE �"/�-�'V!*�3@V]�%�5)Î�,�1"� 5G%('AE �J,TÒHÇ�%2!CÁrE K2-013-0!8Ò�Î�Á ��� � Ò ��� � NN�C

Page 44: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£�£

;m,�%HÒ�9BC Ò�,�E 4zÆ C�`$� �"1PÒ � � �À$,�@D,T,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E��JEZ,_!A�J8TN 1"-T@D'V% N �3?�,R1 % ?0-�,�E�8F% 4-01B#��"@D��#��JE 4 � !A@c'V-0!A!-�'*'V%('V!�C�)�� ������ � GB0��5� ��� �� �XÒ'7^2 Ò � ����� � � � � �C

;m,�%HÒ(9gC�,2E 4�Æ C(`=� �"1eÒ � � � �Ä -0f�I -�E2@A�J,�1 N,2'A,�8F-0@A-�'g-0!A@A�J8T,�@*�3% EF5G%('q,=?0%(IN 1"-04�% ?0-�,�E � ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V-.8F% 4-01 C

��� 06� ��� G I ��K�L�� ,.� 5� ��,.1 ��� �4<+/ � -!� �%� 1CN�- ��� * ��� 1C-D1C<>��,.1 ��� ��Q GSR � � #���,.1 �4�8� 1 � �T��,.� ���� < �_���

� ��KF� 05�5� ���_�� �5� ����U�V+�%W6�%�%U �T� 0 � X�Y�Y�Z Ò�Y�ÆsÉ�(,Â�À � Êh%�C � ��� ÒiYZ%('7134 Æ�-0@A-0%('V%�1"%�K2�3?�,R1

É.'7K(,�E �FG�,�@A�"%(E�C � � � � � ���C;m,�%HÒ�9BC Ò-��C�ÀTC�Ê�-0-01"�JE�ÒB,�E 4zË�C � Ë�C-���JE�Ò � � � CÊ�% E 13�JE -�,�'=@D'7%(N �"?�,�1p,R�H' � !A-�,U�JE�@A-�'*,�?0@A�"%(E��JE�@D� -=5O,�!A@V#�, /�-

1"�J8F�"@�C )���;=<>1?-:��,.�8Ò89=Ò �<� � � � �<� � CÅG4-,Ò �FCXÒn,�E 4zÆ C�`=� �31PÒ � � � ,� )Ñ@& @A-�E 4-04 �.,�1J8T,�E ��1"@A-�'V�JE K�5G%('&/2%('V@A-'&�!A] !A@A-�8Q!�C�ÐB,�'7@�Å qÆ�-0@D� %(4%213%2K�]

,2E 4PN%2�HE2@�/�% 'V@A�"?0-0!�C�\ �%� ��*�,.- �%� �]GB0��5� �^� Ò 7���Ò � � � � ��� � CÅG4-,Ò��FC ÒB,�E 4RÆ C�`=� �"1eÒ � � � W� �ÑH&(@A-�E 4-04 �.,�1J8T,�E ��1"@A-�'V�JE KL5 % 'm/�%('V@A-'&L!A] !A@A-�8F!�C¤ÐB,�'V@2ÅjÅ (Í�,2E)��JE -

/2%('V@A�"?0-0!S,�E 4L%(W !A-�'V/ �JE K � !A] !A@A-�8 4-0!*�3K E�CB\ �%� ��*�,.- �%� ��GB05�5� �8� Ò87���Ò ����� � ��� �CÅG4-,Ò��FC Ò(Ð�C=Î&%(I'7@A�"-�'�Ò�Æ C�`=� �"1eÒi,�E 4sÁFC Î.C=Ç�% 'V-�E ?,Ò � � � BÏSE � ��-04 E %�@D,�@A�"%(EP5 %('m4�,R@D,+,�!*!A�J8F�"1H,R@A�"%(E�

É.Nj-�'A,�@A�"%(E,R1eÒ�!A-0fI -�E�@*�H,R1p,�E 4�/�,�'V�J,�@A�"%(E,R1 C!)�� �T�$,A�!/ � 0%��)8�5�'� � Ò �8�=Ò � � � � � � C���J,�E KHÒ(Ê=C Ò���C ÀTC Êh-0-01"�HE�Òi,�E 4sÆ C `=� �31PÒ � � � � I,�!A� � fI,�4�'V-�EE �J,�1�,�E 4Mf�I,R!A� � W �3-�EE �J,�1h/X,�'V�J,�W �"1"�"@V] �JE

Î�ÉCÁ*À2ÄU-0f�I,R@A%('V�J,�1 ÐB,R?0� ��?=!A-�,F!DI'\56,�?0-.@*-�8TN-�'A,R@DI'V-$,�E 4�#��JE 4!�C];=<>1C- � \ �6� � Ò�&'7=Ò � � � � ��� � C���JE�Ò�Ë�C � Ë�C=Ò � � � (Á.E+-0fI,�@A% 'V�J,�1�% ?0-�,�E+'V-0?0�,�'VK2- N,�'A,R4�3K 8 5G%('CÑ$Ê�ÄTÉFC=ÐB,�'7@�Å �?0%(E ?0-�N @DI,�1B8F% 4-01GC�)��

* ,.- � � �!/+0$1.� Ò8�82 �� ��� � � �� C���JE�ÒqË�C � Ë�C=Ò�,�E 4 ��CTÀTCHÊh-0-01"�JE�Ò � � � 3ÆP% 4-0!�%�5q�JE2@A-�'A,�EE I,�1�@c'V%(N �"?�,�1�% ?0-�,�E � ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V-=�HE2@A-�'A,R?0@A�"%(E � ,

IE � ��-04�/ �3-0#=C�ÐB,�'7@IÅ HÊmI8F-�'V�"?�,�1(Í&-0!DI 1"@A!�C!)^�+* ,.- � � � /30�1 �XÒ8���=Ò � � � � ��� � � C���JE�Ò�Ë�C � 5AC Ò���C�ÀTCqÊ�-0-01"�JEZ,�E 4zÆ C�`$� �"1PÒ � �� �ÑB1 Êh�A@E %�%(EL@D� -2À.-0/ �"1G<>!2Ä @D,��J'V?�,�!*- �ÁrEE I,�1�!DIW�,�'A8F% E �3?

!*@A-�N !S@*% ?0�,�%�!8Ò�/+0$1C� � 0��8Ò'7�982�Ò � � � � � C���JE�Ò=Ë�C � Ë�C Ò"��C�ÀTC�Êh-0-01"�HE�Òi,�E 4zÆ C�`$� �"1PÒ � � �� *ÑB1(Ê��A@E %�(,Ä % I @D� -�'AEsÉm!A?0�"1"1J,�@A�"%(E ,�E 4�@D� -T,�EE I,�1B?0] ?01"-

ÄIW�,2'A8F%(E �"?=56'7-0f�I -�E ?0] � 1"%(?0)��JE K+,�E 4+,2N-�'V�"% 4�3?0�"@V]�C =� �$� 1C0��P\@Ò����=Ò � � � � � C

Page 45: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£Tª

�m-�NN-�EE -,Ò�Î.C ÇBCXÒ � ������ (À$,�@D,T,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(EL�JE�@A%�,TN'V�J8F�"@A�"/�- � -0fI,�@A�"%(E 8F%(4-01�#��"@D�L,TN,�'A,�1"1"-01B-�E !A-�8FW 1"-

�.,R1H8_,�E ��1"@A-�'0C � ��� ���������!���$#%� Ò�&'7 �=Ò � ��� � � � � C�m-�NN-�EE -,Ò�Î.CHÇBCXÒ�,�E 4^Æ C�`=� �"1eÒ � ��� (Ám4�,�N @A�"/�- ��1"@A-�'V�JE K+,�E 4PN'7-04�3?0@*�3% E+%R5q@D� -_Ä %(I @c� -�'AE^Ém!A?0�"1"1J,�@A�"%(E

�JE 4-'&�C )^� � � � � � �$� �!�"� � �XÒ�& �.Ò � � � � � � � CÇ�,�@*� 5�ÒTÆ C ÒTÀTC�Á.E 4-�'V!A%(E�Ò�Â.C�&,�'*E -0@A@�Ò�Æ CHÎ�,�E -,ÒHÍ^C �m1"-0-�8T,�E�Ò�ÁFCHÇ�-0-0@D8T,2,TÒ ��C�ÉF< k'7�3-�E�ÒqÁFCHÍ&%�!D,R@A�PÒ�,�E 4

ÑhCTÄ ?b�E -0�"4-�'�Ò � � �� .Áe'V-0/ �3-0# %�5�@D� -SN'V-04�"?0@D,�W �"1"�"@V]+,�E 4 N'7-04�3?0@*�3% E�%�5 Ñ)Ê*ÄTÉFC�)^� � � � � ����� ����� � � Ò

&��E.Ò � Ò ����� � � Ò � � CÇ�-0-,Ò�Â.C Ò@��C � Ð�C i%(I 1J,�E K�-�'�Ò$Á C�Ë�%(%HÒ�ÇBC � ÇgC(ËnI�Òq,2E 4®Í.Cq`.�"-�'V�JE KHÒ � ������ 1À$,�@c,P,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E W2] ,�E

�JE2@A-�'A8F-04�J,�@*-T?0%(IN 1"-04 % ?0-�,�E � ,�@c8F%�!DN� -�'V-T8F% 4-01 �Á.NN 13�"?�,�@*�3% EZ@A%U@D� - � � � � � � ��ÑB1)Êh�A@E %�C[)��

� � � � � �$� �!�"� � �XÒ�&����=Ò � �TÒ ��� � � � �TÒ �I� � CÇ�-0-0@D8_,�,TÒ,ÁFC Ò ,�E 41Æ C����PÒ � � =É.N-�'A,R@A�"%(E,�1�� �JE 4?�,�!A@A�JE KF%�5�@D� -�@D'7%(N �"?�,�1�ÐB,�?0� ��?�C�\ �%� ��*�,.- �%� ��GB05��� �8� Ò

&8E=Ò � � � �CÆ��"131"-�'�Ò�Í.C=Ê=C Ò�,�E 4zÆ CHÁFC�Îh,�E -,Ò � � �Á �.,�1J8T,�E ��1"@A-�'=,�E,�1"](!*�3!.%R5k!A-�,_1"-0/�-01k� -0�"K(�2@.�JE+@c� - @c'V%(N �"?�,�1

ÐB,R?0� ��?�C!)�� =����� �]GB0��5� ���_�� � Ò^&'�.Ò ����� � � �CÆ��"131"-�'�Ò�Í.C=Ê=C ÒHÆ C�`$� �"1PÒ ,�E 4zË�C�`$,�I @c� �3-'G,Ò � �� �Ám4/X,�E ?0-04 4�,�@D,U,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E��JEL!A@D'7%(E K�1"]PE %(E 1"�JE -�,�'

4]E,�8F�"?�,�1�!A] !A@A-�8F! C=)��+*�,.- �%� �!/30�1 �XÒ8�+&�Ò � � ��� � � � � �CÆ��"131"-�'�Ò$Í.C Ê=C Ò=ÁFC���C�&I !D,�1J,�?0?0� �PÒq,�E 4mÑhC=Î.C ;m,�?0)�-�'V@�Ò � � � 2Ä -�,[!DI' 5O,�?0-T@A%(Nj%�K('A,2N��] ��-0134!_%�5k@D� -

@c'V%(N �"?�,�1 ÐB,�?0� ��?^56'V% 8 4�,R@D,T,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E�CB)�� � � � � ����� �!��� � � Ò�&���=Ò �<��� � � �<� � � CÆ��"131"-�'�Ò�Í.C=Ê=C Ò�ÑhCHË�C�Î�,�'7@A-�' � '0C Ò�,�E 4sÄ�C�Â.C�i1JI -,Ò � �� �À$,�@D,T,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(E��JE2@A%+E %(E 1"�JE -�,�'.!A@*%(?0�,�!A@A�"?

8Q%(4-01"!�C V �$<C<>N � Ò���& � Ò � � � � � � CÆ��"@A?b� -01"1PÒB;$C=ÇgC Ò�,�E 4mÐ�C=ÇBC�;h%(I @A-�) ,�8F-�'�Ò � ������ CÁ.EZ,�4�,2N @A�"/�-F-�E !A-�8FW 13-��.,�1J8T,�E ��1"@A-�'0C�� ��� � ���5���

���$#%� Ò+&87��.Ò � � � ��� CÆ�%('V%(E�Ò�lFC Ò=Í.C�lq,2I @D,�'V4=Ò�,�E 4zÆ C�`$� �"1PÒ � � �� * 'V-�E 4!8Ò��JE�@*-�'V4-0?�,�4�,�1q,�E 4��JE2@A-�'A,�EE I,�1B%�!A?0�"1"1J,�@A�"%(E !F�JE

K213% W,�1�!A-�, � !cI' 56,R?0-.@A-�8TN-�'*,�@DI'V-0!�C ;=<>1?-[� \ �%� �XÒ+& 2 Ò � � � � � C

Page 46: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£ �

Êh-0-013�JE�Ò-��CTÀTC Ò � � �� Á ��]W'V�"4�?0%(IN 1"-04+K�-�E -�'*,�1�?0�H'7?�I 1H,R@A�"%(E+8F% 4-01�5G%('�ÑB1=Êh�A@E %_!A@DI 4�"-0!�C�)��+*�,.- �%� ��/+0$1.� Ò

2 ��Ò"� � � � � CÊh-0-013�JE�Ò ��CHÀTCXÒ�,�E 4^Ë�C � Ë�C����JE�Ò � � � $Æ�%(4-0!m%�5B�HE2@A-�'A,2EE(I,�1�@D'V% N �3?�,R1 % ?0-�,�E � ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V-=�HE2@A-�'A,R?0@A%��JE � ,

IE � ��-04 / �"-0#$C�ÐB,�'7@2ŧŠ=Á.E,�1"](@*�3?�,R1o'7-0!DI 1"@A!$�JE @D� -F#k-�,2) � ?0%(IN 1"�JE K�1"�H8Q�3@ C )^����,.- �%� � /30�1 �XÒ � �=Ò

��� � � ��� ��� CÊh-0-013�JE�Ò ��CHÀTCXÒHÆ CHÇ�,R@A� 5 Ò�,�E 4 Ë�C � Ë�C����JE�Ò � �� $À.]�E,�8Q�3?0!m%�5q?0%(IN 1"-04Z% ?0-�,�E � ,�@c8F%�!DN� -�'V-F8F% 4-013!� �Â�� -

@c'V%(N �"?�,�1 N'V% W 13-�8[C"* ��� N8�����$#%� � <>N 1 K �T�50 � �XÒ�7�9=Ò"� ��� � � � CÊh-0-013�JE�Ò ��C�ÀTC ÒqÀTC�Ä�C k,R@A@A�"!A@A�PÒ�ÁFC=Î.Cn;h�J'V!A@�Ò�Ë�C � Ë�C"���JE�Ò � C�Y ,2)�,�@D,�Ò�Â.C �q,�8T,RK(,�@D,TÒ�,�E 4sÄ�C=Ñ�C�9�-�W �J,�)qÒ

� � �� (Ñ)Ê*ÄTÉ @c� -0%('V]�C�)�� � � � � ����� �!��� � � Ò�&��E=Ò � � � � � � �� �CÊhK�%(4% ?0)HÒ�;=C=Ñ�C Ò mC=Ä�C=Î�� I,TÒ�,�E 4zÁFC�Ë�C i-�EE -0@A@8Ò � ������ S`^-�E -�'A,�1"�FG0-04 �JE2/�-�'V!A-F%�5�,�'V-04�I ?0-04ZK('A, / �"@\]

N'7�H8Q�3@*�3/2- -0fI,�@A�"%(E[%(?0-�,2E�8F%(4-01�,�E 4+@D'7%(N �"?�,�1 ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V- � % ?0-�,�EU4�,�@D,jC=� ��� �����5���!���$#6�XÒ+&87��=Ò

� Ò ����� � � Ò ����� CÐB,�'A'7�3!c��ÒTÀTCTË�C Ò�,2E 4�Ä�C�Ñ�CHÎ&% �E�Ò � � � (Á��.,�1J8T,2E ��1"@A-�'o5 %('m,F@V#&% � 4�J8F-�E !A�"%(E,�1�!D�,�1"1"%�#e#�,�@*-�'�8F% 4-01

5G%('A8FI 1J,�@A�"%(EL,�E 4PN'7-013�J8F�JE,�'7]P-'&N-�'7�H8Q-�E�@A! C:G � 0��]` � ,.��������Ò�Êm,�@A�"%(E,�1�Æ�-0@A-0%('V%213%2K��"?�,�1 Î&-�E2@A-�'�Ò

YM,�!D� �JE K�@A%(E?À2Î � � � ��� Ò � NN�CÐ�-�E 1J,�E 4=Ò=Î.C Ò � � �� )Á !*@A%(?0�,�!A@*�3?F8F% 4-01B%�53Å E 4%�ÐB,�?0� ��?T!A-�,_!DI' 5O,�?0-F@A-�8TNj-�'A,�@DI'7- ,�E %(8_,�1"�3-0! C ������ 1C05�

\�Ò�� �=Ò ��� � ��� �CÐq� �"1J,�E 4-�'�Ò�Ä�C�`_C Ò � � �� ��<+` 1����� U ��� ` 1��� � U � ��K , � �:/ � N�, � � �� G � 0$1C<?<>��,.1 ��� C Ám?�,�4-�8F�"?!Ðq'V-0!A!8Ò �� � NN�CÍ�,�!c8 I !*!A%(E�Ò(Ñ�C.Æ CXÒ � C�YM,�E KP,�E 4EÎ.C.Ë�C Í&%(Nj-01"-0#�!D)2�eÒ � � �� _Âh� - W �"-�EE �J,�1�?0%(8_N%(E -�E2@F%�5�Ñ)Ê*ÄTÉ

/�,�'V�J,�W �"1"�"@\]�C )�� �T� 1 � �]/ ��� ,A� Ò�&�Ò ��� � �CÄ� -0�JE(W,2I8�Ò@��C ÒB,�E 4:ÀTC=ÇBC(Â.C.ÁrE 4-�'V!*%(E�Ò � � �� ^lq,�'V�J,�@A�"%(E,�1&,�!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A�"%(EM%R5 � � 4�,�@c,C�ÐB,�'V@2ÅjÅAC

Ä -�E !*�3@*�3/ �"@V]+!A@DI 4�"-0!.,�E 4PI !*-.%�5p!c8F%(%2@D� �JE KT?0%(E !A@D'*,��JE�@A! C=)�� =� �$� �]GB05��� ��� � �XÒ�&��=Ò-��� � � � CÄI,�'V-'G,Ò�Æ C-��C Ò�,�E 4sÐ�C�Ä�C�Ä ?b� % N25 Ò � ���� $Á 4-01J, ]�-04Z,�?0@A�"%(E�%2!A?0�"131J,�@*%('m5G%('CÑ$Ê�ÄTÉ!Ò )�� *�,.- �%� �]/+0$1.� Ò�23�.Ò

� � � � � � � � � C

Page 47: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£q¢

Â�%(41"�JE KHÒ�Í.C Ò�,�E 4^Ä�CqÑ�CHÎ&% �E�Ò � �� (ÄIW% N @A�J8T,�1�!A?b� -�8Q-0!&5 % '�,�@D8F%2!DN� -�'V�"?.4�,�@D,F,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% EPW,R!A-04�%(E

@c� - �.,�1J8T,�E���1"@A-�' CB� ��� �P����� �!�"�$#%� Ò�&'7�7.Ò � ��� � � � ����� CÂ�%(41"�JE KHÒ=Í.C Ò�,�E 4^Æ C�`=� �31PÒ � �� ) '*,�?b)2�JE K�,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V�"?$�JE !A@c,�W �"13�"@A�"-0!=#��"@D��@D� - �.,�1J8T,�E ��13@*-�'V�JE K�CCÐB,�'V@

Å HÆ�-0@D� % 4%�1"%�K�]�,�E 4�%(E - � 1J, ]�-�'�'7-0!DI 1"@A!�C�� ��� �����5���!�"��#6�XÒ�&'7�7.Ò � � � � � � C G0�JN-�'*8T,�E�ÒTÑ�C ÒTÇBC�Ä @A%(E -,Ò�Æ C ÁFC,Î�,�E -,Ò,�E 4�;=C �(,�'V%�!c��Ò � � Ñg1�Êh�A@E %F?0�,�%�! �%�/�-�'V1J,�NN �JE KF%�5 'V-0!A% E,�E ?0-0!

Wj-0@V#k-0-�E_@D� -�!*-�,�!A%(E,�1?0] ?01"-$,�E 4T@D� -*ÐB,�?0� ��?S% ?0-�,�E � ,�@D8Q%�!DN� -�'V-�%2!A?0�"131J,�@*%('0C�/+0$1C� � 05� � Ò%7�982�Ò � � � � ClB-�'A'V% E�Ò1��C Ò�ÇBCn`^%(I'V4-�,�I�Ò�ÀTC�Â.CHÐi�,�8�Ò=Í.CqÆZI'V@DI K(I 44-,Ò�,2E 4�ÁFC-��C &I !D,R1H,R?0?b� �PÒ � �� $ÁrEL-'& @A-�E 4-04

�.,R1H8_,�E ��13@*-�'m@A% ,R!A!A�J8F�"1J,�@A-F!D,�@A-01"1"�"@A-T,�1"@A�J8F-0@A-�'m4�,�@c,T�JE2@A% ,UE %(E 1"�JE -�,�'.E I8F-�'V�"?�,�1q8F% 4-01 %R5q@D� -

@c'V%(N �"?�,�1 ÐB,�?0� ��?!Ém?0-�,�E� )Æ�-0@D� % 4+,�E 4�/�,�1"�34�,R@A�"%(E�C )^� � � � � � �$� �!�"� � �XÒ�&��^2 Ò � � � � � � �C9�-�W �J,�)qÒ Ä�C�Ñ�C Ò�,2E 4�Æ CqÁ C=Îh,�E -,Ò � � � �Á 8F% 4-01)ÑB1(Ê�� @E %zÄ %(I @D� -�'AEzÉm!A?0�"1"1J,�@A�"%(E�C�� ��� � ���5���P�"��#�Ò Ò

&�&'�.Ò ��� � � � ��� � �C

JCK4L`M,N�OeL`MEQTS�U(V)hBMHk�k�L`v�k � L`v�wyK�QHd8OtZ[U=d8Z,}2L`U4k Z,d�K�U�M�gtM�\��³JCZ�UqwyZ[v[V � U�OipTZ[v�}DOtwD�^M`{@cEL,v��HgPL`U4k

��L`gtw�OtxzM�vyZ¤JCM�S�UHw��TV=L`U4kE]B��kHv�M�gtM�\�OPd[L,g�QHd8OiZ�U=d8Z,}��*v�L`U4dfK(V=r_|�QH|�h2MHk�k�L`v�k�Q~u=L�d8Z � giOt\�KHw!JCZ[UHw�Z[v�V

h2v�Z[Z�Uq�=Z[gtw[V�cEoG����¢�¢ � n

c:OedfK4L`Z[g�h2K�Oig§V*l�nCo_L�pHOPk-rBZ�Z[giOtU(V�oBZ�u=L`vyw�xzZ[UHw¤M,{�|�w�xzM~}Du�K�Z�v�OPd Q�d8OiZ[U4d8Z,}8V � U�OipTZ[v�}DOtwD�EM,{

J�L`gtOX{�M�v�U�OeLqV��=MT}2|BU�\�Z[giZ�}8Vq£~��ªz]2Oigi\~L`v�kz|BpTZTntV4J�|G¡�����¡�ª'� � ª � ª

Y=K�Z[U�\^]!L,M�V=©`£~ª�ªz�2L`x^�=M,¨�oBv�niV���L`gtMz|Bgtw�M�V.J�|G¡`£~©�� �

Í&-0?0-0�"/�-04sÍCÑ$ÎCÑ)ÅÈÐ)Â�À�Á)ÂCÑ ��'V-0/(�"!A-04zÍCÑBl�Å�ÄTÅÈÉ�ÊÃÀ*Á)ÂCÑ �L,�?0?0-�N @A-04^Á*ÎCÎCÑ)Ð$ À�Á)ÂCÑhC

Page 48: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£�

��������� ��� ��� �����

��������� ����� ��Z8{�Z[v�Z�U=d8Z�}DM�giS�wyOiM�U1{�M�vC©��!�TZ,L`v�}8� � L � rBO�$U�M � ©¤Q�Q � }�M�gtOPk ��wyK�Z2k�L�}DK�Z,k¤gtOiU�Z�kqZ�U�M�wyZ,}

w�K�Z�x�Z,L`U � � � � � Q�Q L,U�M�x L`gi� �=Z[gek � gPL,�=Z[giZ,k�Q�Q | � L`U4k � k � wyK�Z[v�x�MHd8giOtU�Z�kqZ[u�wyK�L,U�M�xsL,gi�

�=Z[gek ':L,wBwyK�Z1w�v�L,U=}DOtw�OtM�Usu�K=L�}DZ�}�K�M�vyw�gt�sL�{�wyZ[v��TZ,L`v2ª � � d � L,U=k � Z � Q�Q |GL,U=k�'mL`w2w�K�Z1¨�L,v�x

u�K=L�}DZ�L`v�M�S�U=k �TZ�L`v � n K�Zz}��qx^�=M�g � kqZ[U�M�w�Z�}�wyK�Z^w�Oix�Z�M,{2w�K�Z�w�¨�MRu�K=L�}�Z,}8V({�M�v1¨�K�OPd�KEw�K�Z

Q�Q |-L`U=k '�L,v�Z*u�giM�wyw�Z,k n�rBM�w�ZCw�K=L,w*Q�Q |�OP} �[Z[vyMBM�S�w�}�OPkqZ�w�K�Z�Z���S4L`w�M�v�OeL`gH}Dwyv�Otu¤�H�1kqZ��=U�Oiw�OtM�U(n

��������� ����� �=M�U�\�Otw�S=kHZ��jwyOixzZEu�giM�w�} � ]2M`pHx��M�giZ[v^kqOeL`\�v�L`x } � {�M�vRvyZ8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z }DM�gtS�w�OtM�UÃM,pTZ[vs©��

�TZ,L`v�}8n � L � Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gt� � � � � � � � ¨�OiU=k ��}Dwyv�Z,}y}�L,U�M�x L`gi� � � kq�HU�Z^d8x � a � � � d � �!Z[gtpqOtU:¨�L[pTZ

L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ�� � �(L`U=k � k � �=v�}Dw1��MT}y}D�H�:¨@L�pTZ L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ�� a n����1L`U4k � a L`vyZ�OiUEU�M�U=kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U4L`g

S�U�Otw�}8n

��������� ����� c:MHkqZ[g �TZ[vyv�M�v!d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=} � �4L�}DZ�kRM�U � � u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyZ,k {�v�M�x w�K�Z1¨�OiU4k �H}�w�v�Z�}�}�Z[v�vyM�v[�

L � Q�Q �«Q�Q �T� � Q�Q � ��� �Hd � Q�Q � � a �Hk � ��� � ��� �TZ � ��� � � a ��{ � ��� � � W�� �T\ � � a ��� a �qK � � a ��� � �qL,U=k

O � � a ��� W�� L,giM�U�\ wyK�Z1Z���S4L`w�M�v[n K�Z�d8M�UHw�M�S�v2OiUHw�Z[vyp�L,g�Oe}��qn¸�Hn

��������� ����� �Bc Q^Z[vyv�M�v�}�M,{�� � � Z,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,}�{�M�v2S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�kRd�L�}DZ~�*L � Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gt� �H� � ��� �=d �

� a n

��������� ����� � M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw �TZ[vyv�M�v2d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}*Z,}�w�OtxsL`wyZ,k?�H�s� � � �=L�}DZ,kzM�U � � {�M�v�wyK�Z1S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�k

d[L�}�Z�L`w�w�K�Z�Z�U=kRM,{��TZ,L,v2ª �=}yL`xzZ!geL[�TM�S�w2L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©Hn

��������� ����� �Bc Q Z[v�vyM�v�}*M,{*� � � Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,}${�M�v�w�K�Z1d�M�S�u�gtZ,kzd[L�}DZTn*Q�L`xzZ2gPL[�TM�S�w�L�}*OtU � Ot\�n�£�n

��������� � ��� � M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw �TZ[vyv�M�v d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}�Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,k:�H��� � � �=L�}�Z,k M�U � � {�M�v�w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ�k

d[L�}�Z��}yL`xzZ1geL��TM�S�w�L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©qn K�Z�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}�L,v�Z�d[L,gPd8S�geL`wyZ,ksL`w�w�K�Z�Z�U=kzM`{�ª��TZ,L`v�}8n

Page 49: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

£T¡

��������� ��� � QTOtx S�gPL`wyZ,kEw�v�S�Z:}�w�L,w�ZR{�M�vz©��³�TZ�L`v�}�� � L � Q�Q L,U�M�x L`gi� � � � � � � � ¨�OiU=k �H}Dwyv�Z,}y}

L`U�M�xsL`gt� � � kq�HU�Z1d8x � a � � � d � �!Z[gipHOiU^¨�L[pTZ_L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ���� ��L`U=k � k � �=v�}�w2��M~}�}��q�z¨@L[pTZ!L,xzu�giO �

w�S=kHZ � a n ���_L`U=k � a L`vyZ¤OtUzU�M�U4kqOixzZ�U=}DOtM�U=L,g(S�U�Oiw�n

��������� ��� � o_L`w�LsL�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U�¨�Oiw�K�Q�Q M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U®L`w � ����0GV�OiU4kqOPd[L,w�Z,ks�q��w�K�Z�w�v�OeL`U�\�giZTn

� L � Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,gi� � � � � kHOPL`\�M�U=L,g�d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw�}BM,{ � � � k�L�}DK�Z�k � L`U=k � � � }�M�gtOPk � {�M�v�Q�Q � � d �

�!Z[gipHOiU^¨�L[pTZ�L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ���� �=L,U=k � k � � � � k�L�}DK�Z,k � L`U=k � � � }�M�gtOPk � {�M�v ����n

��������� � ����� Y=M�U=L,gBp�L`vyOPL,w�OiM�U=} M,{�©����T�TZ,L,vzL[pTZ[v�L`\�Z�k'�2c Q Z�v�v�M�v�}¤{�M�v^w�K�ZmxzMHkqZ[gC{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w

� }�K�M�vyw^k�L�}�K�Z,k�giOtU�Z � L,U=k�wyK�ZsL�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U ¨�Oiw�K Q�Q k�L`w�L L,w � ª�� � � � Q�Q � �zgiM�U�\®k�L�}�K�Z,k

giOtU�Z � V � ¢�¢ � � � Q�Q �� �EgiOt\�KHwz}�M�gtOPk'giOtU�Z � V�L`U=k � ��� � 0 � Q�Q a �[�EK�Z,L[pH�Ã}DM�giOek�giOtU�Z � � � L � Q�Q

L`U�M�xsL`gt� � � � � �!Z[gipHOiU-¨�L[pTZmL`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ � � � � d � �=v�}Dws��MT}y}D�H�-¨�L[pTZmL`xzu�gtOiwyS=kqZ(� a �!L,U=k � k �

}DZ,d�M�U=k-��MT}�}��q� ¨�L[pTZsL`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ)� � n K�ZsZ[v�vyM�v�}�L,v�ZsU�M�v�xsL,giO(��Z,k³�H��wyK�ZzxsL��qOtx S�x p�L`giS�Z

M`{�L`gigCwyK�Z Z�v�v�M�v�}�n K�Z wyK�v�Z�Z M��=}DZ[vypqOtU�\:gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U=}¤L,v�Z�}DK�M,¨�U��H�+�=gigtZ,k:w�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,}¤L,giM�U�\:w�K�Z

L`�=}yd8OP}y}�L�OiUsZ,L�dfKzu4L`U�Z[g§n

��������� ��� � � Q�L`xzZ2L�}IOtU � Oi\�S�v�Z2¡qVTZ���d8Z[u�w�w�K=L,wCw�K�Z_L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U¤Oe}�v�S�U^¨�OiwyK � M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}

L`w ����� �.0 {�M�v_©����TZ,L`v�}8n

��������� ������ � M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw �~Z[v�vyM�v2d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}*Z,}�w�Oix L`w�Z�k?�H� � � � L`w�wyK�Z1Z[U=k M,{ � � �T�TZ�L`v_L�}�}�OixzO �

gPL,w�OiM�Us¨�Oiw�K � k�L`w�L L,w ����� � 0Gn�QHL,xzZ!geL��TM�S�w�L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©qn

��������� � � ��� QHL,xzZ�L�}(OiU � Oi\�S�v�Z � �qV�Z���d�Z[u�w(w�K4L`w�wyK�Z�L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�U1OP}(v�S�U�¨�Oiw�K���2M��=}�Z[v�p�L`wyOiM�U=}

{�M�v�©��z�TZ,L,v�}�V$L,w � £T¡ � � � � � �1giM�U�\mk�L�}�K�Z,kEgiOiU�Z � � V � ��� � � � � �!w�K�OtU®}DM�giOPkEgiOtU�Z � V ����� � 0 � � a � �

w�K�Oed - }DM�giOPkEgiOtU�Z � n K�Z^w�K�vyZ[Z^M��=}�Z[v�pHOiU�\mgiMHd[L,w�OtM�U=}�L`v�Z }DK�M,¨�U��H�+�=gigtZ,k:w�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,}1L`giM�U�\Ew�K�Z

L`�=}yd8OP}y}�LHn

Page 50: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª��

��������� ��� � � QTU=L`u4}DK�M�w�}*M`{)¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}*L�}�}DOt\�U�Z�k �q�^w�K�Z � � � w�M�w�K�Z�k�L`w�L�OiU�w�K�Z_�'� ���d�L�}DZ�}8� �� �� \�v�L[� � L`U4k �� a � � ��gPL�d.- � V,u�giM�w�w�Z�k¤M`pTZ�v�©��B�TZ,L`v�}�L`w�M�U�Z��§�TZ,L,v�OiUHw�Z[vyp�L`gP}�n��=Z8{�w�u=L,U�Z[gP}�L`v�Z*{�M�v�w�K�Z

���!M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}�V(v�Oi\�Kqw_u=L`U�Z�gP}�{�M�v!w�K�Z � a M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}8n K�Z^L`U=L,gi��}DOe} �=Z[gek�}!L`vyZzQ�Q � w�M�u � V

��� � xzOPk�kqgiZ � V)L`U=k � a � �.M�w�wyM�x u=L,U�Z[g � n K�ZmL,v�v�M,¨2}¤OtU�u=L`U�Z[g � k � kqZ[U�M�w�ZzwyK�ZsL,u�u�v�M��HOixsL,w�Z

giMHd[L,w�OtM�U=}CM`{)w�K�ZBu=Z,L�- ¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}�kHS�v�OtU�\�d8M�gPkzL,U=k ¨@L`v�x�u�K=L�}�Z,}8n K�Z!w�¨*M1M��=}DZ[vypqOtU�\¤gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U=}

L`vyZs}DK�M,¨�U-�H� �=gtgiZ,kEw�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,} � \�v�L[� {�M�v¤wyK�Zz¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�U-L,U=k���gPL�d -:{�M�v�w�K�ZzZ�L�}DwyZ[v�U �=L�}�OiU � OtU

Z,L�d�Kzu=L,U�Z[g§n

Page 51: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª �

-0.2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

-30N

-15N

EQ

15N

30Nb) SSTA (°K)

1.210.80.60.40.2

c) SSTA (°K)

-1

-15

5

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-30N

-15N

EQ

15N

30Nd) h (m)

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-5

-5

-6

-6

-6-6

-7

-7

-8

-8

9

9

88

8

7654321

1

0

130E 180 130W 80W

e) h (m)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Time (years)

21

22

23

24

25

26N

ino-

3 S

ST

(° K

)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30Time (years)

21

22

23

24

25

26N

ino-

3 S

ST

(° K

)a) Nino-3 SST (°K)

��������� � � � ��Z8{�Z[v�Z�U=d8ZC}�M�giS�w�OiM�U¤{�M�vC©��!�TZ,L`v�}8� � L � rBO�$U�M � ©¤Q�Q � }�M�gtOPk ��wyK�Z2k�L�}DK�Z,k¤gtOiU�Z�kqZ�U�M�wyZ,}

w�K�Z�x�Z,L`U � � � � � Q�Q L,U�M�x L`gi� �=Z[gek � gPL,�=Z[giZ,k�Q�Q | � L`U4k � k � wyK�Z[v�x�MHd8giOtU�Z�kqZ[u�wyK�L,U�M�xsL,gi�

�=Z[gek ':L,wBwyK�Z1w�v�L,U=}DOtw�OtM�Usu�K=L�}DZ�}�K�M�vyw�gt�sL�{�wyZ[v��TZ,L`v2ª � � d � L,U=k � Z � Q�Q |GL,U=k�'mL`w2w�K�Z1¨�L,v�x

u�K=L�}DZ�L`v�M�S�U=k �TZ�L`v � n K�Zz}��qx^�=M�g � kqZ[U�M�w�Z�}�wyK�Z^w�Oix�Z�M,{2w�K�Z�w�¨�MRu�K=L�}�Z,}8V({�M�v1¨�K�OPd�KEw�K�Z

Q�Q |-L`U=k '�L,v�Z*u�giM�wyw�Z,k n�rBM�w�ZCw�K=L,w�Q�Q |-OP} �[Z[vyMBM�S�w�}�OPkqZ�w�K�Z�Z���S4L`w�M�v�OeL`gH}Dwyv�Otu¤�H�1kqZ��=U�Oiw�OtM�U(n

Page 52: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª��

-2 -1 0 1 2SSTA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30T

ime

(yea

rs)

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4τ

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2q0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2q2

130E 180 130W 80W

��������� ����� �=M�U�\�Otw�S=kHZ��jwyOixzZEu�giM�w�} � ]2M`pHx��M�giZ[v^kqOeL`\�v�L`x } � {�M�vRvyZ8{�Z[vyZ[U=d8Z }DM�gtS�w�OtM�UÃM,pTZ[vs©��

�TZ,L`v�}8n � L � Q�Q L`U�M�xsL`gt� � � � � � � � ¨�OiU=k ��}Dwyv�Z,}y}�L,U�M�x L`gi� � � kq�HU�Z^d8x � a � � � d � �!Z[gtpqOtU:¨�L[pTZ

L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ�� � �(L`U=k � k � �=v�}Dw1��MT}y}D�H�:¨@L�pTZ L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ�� a n����1L`U4k � a L`vyZ�OiUEU�M�U=kqOtxzZ[U=}�OiM�U4L`g

S�U�Otw�}8n

Page 53: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª�©

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

SST

SS

T

a)

SSTq 0

b)

SST

q 2

c)

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q0

q 0

d)

q0

q 2e)

q0q 1

4

f)

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q2

q 2

g)

q2

q 4

h)

q2

q 14

i)

��������� ����� c:MHkqZ[g �TZ[vyv�M�v!d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=} � �4L�}DZ�kRM�U � � u�vyM,N�Z,d8wyZ,k {�v�M�x w�K�Z1¨�OiU4k �H}�w�v�Z�}�}�Z[v�vyM�v[�

L � Q�Q �«Q�Q �T� � Q�Q � ��� �Hd � Q�Q � � a �Hk � ��� � ��� �TZ � ��� � � a ��{ � ��� � � W�� �H\ � � a � � a �TK � � a ��� � �qL,U=k

O � � a ��� W�� L,giM�U�\ wyK�Z1Z���S4L`w�M�v[n K�Z�d8M�UHw�M�S�v2OiUHw�Z[vyp�L,g�Oe}��qn¸�Hn

Page 54: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª`£

0 0.1 0.2SST

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

a) SST anomaly (LKF)

0 0.02 0.04q0

130E 180 130W 80W

b) q0 (LKF)

0 0.01 0.02q2

130E 180 130W 80W

c) q2 (LKF)

��������� ����� �Bc Q^Z[vyv�M�v�}�M,{*� � � Z,}DwyOixsL,w�Z,}�{�M�v2S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�kRd�L�}DZ~�*L � Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,gi� ��� � ��� �=d �

� a n

Page 55: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª�ª

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

SST

SS

T

a)

SSTq 0

b)

0

0

0

SST

q 2

c)

00

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q0

q 0

d)

0

0

q0

q 2e)

0

0

q0q 1

4

f)

0

0

0

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q2

q 2

g)

00

q2

q 4

h)

0

0

q2

q 14

i)

0

0

0

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8

��������� ����� � M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw �TZ[vyv�M�v2d�M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OtM�U=}*Z,}�w�OtxsL`wyZ,k?�H�s� � � �=L�}DZ,kzM�U � � {�M�v�wyK�Z1S�U=d8M�S�u�giZ�k

d[L�}�Z�L`w�w�K�Z�Z�U=kzM`{C�TZ,L,v2ª �=}yL`xzZ!geL[�TM�S�w2L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©Hn

Page 56: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª �

0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2SST

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

a) SST anomaly (LKF)

0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.2q0

130E 180 130W 80W

b) q0 (LKF)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1q2

130E 180 130W 80W

c) q2 (LKF)

��������� ����� �Bc Q Z[v�vyM�v�}*M,{*� � � Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,}${�M�v�w�K�Z1d�M�S�u�gtZ,kzd[L�}DZTn*Q�L`xzZ2gPL[�TM�S�w�L�}*OtU � Ot\�n�£�n

Page 57: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª�¢

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

SST

SS

T

a)

0

0

00

SSTq 0

b)

00

0

SST

q 2

c)

00

0

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q0

q 0

d)

0

0

q0

q 2e)

00

q0q 1

4

f)

00

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q2

q 2

g)

00

q2

q 4

h)

00

q2

q 14

i)

00

0

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8

��������� � ��� � M�v�Z,d[L�}Dw �TZ[vyv�M�v d8M�vyv�Z[geL`wyOiM�U4}�Z�}Dw�OtxsL`wyZ,k:�H��� � � �=L�}�Z,k M�U � � {�M�v�w�K�Z�d8M�S�u�giZ�k

d[L�}�Z��}yL`xzZ_gPL[�TM�S�w2L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©qn K�Z�d8M�vyv�Z[geL`w�OtM�U=}�L,v�Z�d[L,gPd8S�geL`wyZ,ksL`w�w�K�Z�Z�U=kzM`{�ª��TZ,L`v�}8n

Page 58: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª��

-2 -1 0 1 2SST

0

5

10

15

20

25

30T

ime

(yea

rs)

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4τ

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2q0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2q2

130E 180 130W 80W

��������� ��� � QTOtx S�gPL`wyZ,kEw�v�S�Z:}�w�L,w�ZR{�M�vz©��³�TZ�L`v�}�� � L � Q�Q L,U�M�x L`gi� � � � � � � � ¨�OiU=k �H}Dwyv�Z,}y}

L`U�M�xsL`gt� �+� kH�qU�Z�d8x � a � � � d � �!Z[gtpqOtUz¨�L[pTZ_L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ�� � ��L`U=k � k � �=v�}�w2��M~}�}��q�z¨@L[pTZ!L,xzu�giO �

w�S=kHZ � a n � � L`U=k � a L`vyZ¤OtUzU�M�U4kqOixzZ�U=}DOtM�U=L,g(S�U�Oiw�n

Page 59: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

ª�¡

-2 -1 0 1 2(a) SST anomaly

0

5

10

15

20

25

30T

ime

(yea

rs)

130E 180 130W 80W

130E 180 130W 80W

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3 0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

(c) Pf and Pa for SST

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.20.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2(b) q0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

0.040.035

0.0350.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.025

0.025

0.02

0.02

0.02

(d) Pf and Pa for q0

0.040.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.035

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.025

0.025

0.02

0.02

130E 180 130W 80W

��������� ��� � o_L`w�LsL�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U�¨�Oiw�K�Q�Q M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U®L`w � ����0GV�OiU4kqOPd[L,w�Z,ks�q��w�K�Z�w�v�OeL`U�\�giZTn

� L � Q�Q L,U�M�xsL,gi� � � � � kHOPL`\�M�U=L,g�d8M�xzu=M�U�Z[UHw�}BM,{ � � � k�L�}DK�Z�k � L`U=k � � � }�M�gtOPk � {�M�v�Q�Q � � d �

�!Z[gipHOiU^¨�L[pTZ�L`xzu�giOiwyS=kqZ���� �=L,U=k � k � � � � k�L�}DK�Z,k � L`U=k � � � }�M�gtOPk � {�M�v ����n

Page 60: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

(a) SST anomaly

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

SST20

SST9

SST4

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(b) Kelvin wave q0

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(c) 1st Rossby wave q2

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(d) 2nd Rossby wave q4

��������� � ����� Y=M�U=L,gBp�L`vyOPL,w�OiM�U=}�M`{ ©����T�TZ,L,vzL[pTZ[v�L`\�Z�k��2c Q�Z�v�v�M�v�}¤{�M�v^w�K�ZmxzMHkqZ[gC{�M�vyZ,d[L�}�w

� }�K�M�vyw^k�L�}�K�Z,k�giOtU�Z � L,U=k�w�K�ZmL�}�}DOtxzOigeL`wyOiM�U®¨�OiwyKÃQ�Q k�L`w�L L,w � ª�� � � � Q�Q � �zgiM�U�\®k�L�}�K�Z,k

giOtU�Z � V � ¢�¢ � � � Q�Q �� �EgiOt\�KHwz}�M�gtOPk'giOtU�Z � V�L`U=k � ��� � 0 � Q�Q a �[�EK�Z,L[pH�'}�M�gtOPk'giOtU�Z � � � L � Q�Q

L`U�M�xsL`gt� � � � � �!Z[gipHOiU-¨�L[pTZmL`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ ��� � � d � �=v�}Dws��MT}y}D�H�-¨�L[pTZmL`xzu�gtOiwyS=kqZ(� a �!L,U=k � k �

}DZ,d�M�U=k-��MT}�}��q� ¨�L[pTZsL`x�u�giOtw�S=kqZ)� � n K�ZsZ[v�vyM�v�}�L,v�ZsU�M�v�xsL,giO(��Z,k³�H��wyK�ZzxsL��qOtx S�x p�L`giS�Z

M`{�L`gigCwyK�Z Z�v�v�M�v�}�n K�Z wyK�v�Z�Z M��=}DZ[vypqOtU�\:gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U=}¤L,v�Z�}DK�M,¨�U��H�+�=gigtZ,k:w�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,}¤L,giM�U�\:w�K�Z

L`�=}yd8OP}y}�L�OiUzZ�L�d�KRu4L`U�Z[g§n

Page 61: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

�q�

-2 -1 0 1 2(a) SST anomaly

0

5

10

15

20

25

30T

ime

(yea

rs)

130E 180 130W 80W

130E 180 130W 80W

0.30.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

(c) Pf and Pa for SST

0.30.20.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

0.10.1

130E 180 130W 80W

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2(b) q0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Tim

e (y

ears

)

130E 180 130W 80W

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.02

(d) Pf and Pa for q0

0.02

0.02

0.02

0.020.02

0.02

130E 180 130W 80W

��������� ��� � � Q�L`xzZ2L�}IOtU � Oi\�S�v�Z2¡qVTZ���d8Z[u�w�w�K=L,wCw�K�Z_L�}y}DOix�OigPL,w�OtM�U¤Oe}�v�S�U^¨�OiwyK ��2M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}

L`w ����� � 0 {�M�v_©����TZ,L`v�}8n

Page 62: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� �

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

SST

SS

T

a)

SSTq 0

b)

00

SST

q 2

c)

0

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q0

q 0

d)

0

0

q0

q 2e)

0

0

q0q 1

4

f)

0

0

0

130E 180 130W 80W

130E

180

130W

80W

q2

q 2

g)

00

q2

q 4

h)

00

q2

q 14

i)

00

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8

��������� ������ � M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw �~Z[v�vyM�v2d8M�v�vyZ[gPL,w�OiM�U=}*Z,}�w�Oix L`w�Z�k?�H� � � � L`w�wyK�Z1Z[U=k M,{ � � �T�TZ�L`v_L�}�}�OixzO �

gPL,w�OiM�Us¨�Oiw�K �� k�L`w�L L,w ����� � 0Gn�QHL,xzZ!geL��TM�S�w�L�}�OtU � Oi\�nC©qn

Page 63: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ©

model

(a) SST anomaly

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

model

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(b) Kelvin wave q0

model

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(c) 1st Rossby wave q2

model

130E 180 130W 80WLongitude

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

(d) 2nd Rossby wave q4

��������� � � ��� QHL,xzZ�L�}(OiU � Oi\�S�v�Z � �qV�Z���d�Z[u�w(w�K4L`w�wyK�Z�L�}�}�OixzOtgPL,w�OiM�U1OP}(v�S�U�¨�Oiw�K����M��4}DZ[vyp�L,w�OtM�U=}

{�M�v�©��z�TZ,L,v�}�V$L,w � £T¡ � � � �� � �1giM�U�\mk�L�}�K�Z,kEgiOiU�Z � � V � ��� � � �� � �!w�K�OtU®}DM�giOPkEgiOtU�Z � V ����� � 0 � � a �[�

w�K�Oed - }DM�giOPkEgiOtU�Z � n K�Z^w�K�vyZ[Z^M��=}�Z[v�pHOiU�\mgiMHd[L,w�OtM�U=}�L`v�Z�}DK�M`¨�U-�H�+�=gigtZ,k:w�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,}1L`giM�U�\Ew�K�Z

L`�=}yd8OP}y}�LHn

Page 64: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� £

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

qn4

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

a) SST field, q0 obs

b) q0 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

c) q2 field, q0 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

130E 180 130W 80W

-4

-2

0

2

4

d) SST field, q2 obs

e) q0 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

f) q2 field, q2 obs

130E 180 130W 80W

Longitude

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

qn20

cold

cold

warm

warm

��������� ��� � � QTU=L`u4}DK�M�w�}*M`{)¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}*L�}�}DOt\�U�Z�k �q��wyK�Z � � � w�M�w�K�Z�k�L`w�L�OiU�w�K�Z_�'� ���d�L�}DZ�}8� �� �� \�v�L[� � L`U4k �� a � � ��gPL�d.- � V,u�giM�w�w�Z�k¤M`pTZ�v�©��B�TZ,L`v�}�L`w�M�U�Z��§�TZ,L,v�OiUHw�Z[vyp�L`gP}�n��=Z8{�w�u=L,U�Z[gP}�L`v�Z*{�M�v�w�K�Z

���!M��=}DZ[vyp�L`w�OtM�U=}�V(v�Oi\�Kqw_u=L`U�Z�gP}�{�M�v!w�K�Z � a M��=}�Z[v�p�L,w�OiM�U=}8n K�Z^L`U=L,gi��}DOe} �=Z[gek�}!L`vyZzQ�Q � w�M�u � V

��� � xzOPk�kqgiZ � V)L`U=k � a � �.M�w�wyM�x u=L,U�Z[g � n K�ZmL,v�v�M,¨2}¤OtU�u=L`U�Z[g � k � kqZ�U�M�wyZRwyK�ZsL,u�u�v�M��HOixsL,w�Z

giMHd[L,w�OtM�U=}CM`{)w�K�ZBu=Z,L�- ¨�Z[Oi\�Kqw�}�kHS�v�OtU�\�d8M�gPkzL,U=k ¨@L`v�x�u�K=L�}�Z,}8n K�Z!w�¨*M1M��=}DZ[vypqOtU�\¤gtMHd[L`wyOiM�U=}

L`vyZs}DK�M,¨�U-�H� �=gtgiZ,kEw�vyOPL,U�\�gtZ,} � \�v�L[�E{�M�v�wyK�Zz¨*Z�}Dw�Z�v�U-L,U=k���gPL�d -:{�M�v�w�K�ZzZ�L�}DwyZ[v�U �=L�}�OiU � OtU

Z,L�d�Kzu=L,U�Z[g§n

Page 65: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ª

� ��� � � � ��L`v�L`xzZ�w�Z[v�p�L,giS�Z�}*OiUsw�K�Z�d8M�S�u�gtZ,kzMHd8Z,L`U��HL`wyxzMT}�u�K�Z[vyZ1xzMHkqZ[g

��L`v�L`xzZ[wyZ[v�} QT�Hx �=M�g �*L,giS�Z�}

� ºH»f¹�º ��´T¿8²���´�´ � ²��D²��¹

c:Z,L,U:kHZ[u�w�KsM,{Cw�K�Z1xzO �qZ�k?geL��TZ�v ) W ª���x

c:Z,L,U:kHZ[u�w�KsM,{Cw�K�Z1wyK�Z[v�x�MHd8giOtU�ZBgeL[�TZ[v ) a � ��� x

c:Z,L,U:kHZ[u�w�KsM,{Cw�K�Z�L�d8w�OtpTZ!gPL[�TZ[v ) � ª�� x

QTZ[U4}DOiwyOipHOiw���u=L,v�L`x�Z[w�Z[v�OiU � ��<; ) � ©���x

� ��}DZ[w2u=L`v�L`xzZ�w�Z[v�OiU � ��<; '

���ª�x

� � Z,d8w�OtpTZ1kqZ[u�w�KsM`{CwyK�Z1S�uH¨*Z[gtgiOiU�\ ) WK5 7 ¢,ª�x

�.² ���=²�y´��jº f² ��´�´ � ²��D²��¹

��Z8{�Z[v�Z�U=d8Z!wyZ[xzu=Z[v�L,w�S�vyZ ��

������J

� � �TZ��TS=L`wyM�vyOPL`gCQ�Q � = ��¡���J

Z[xzu=Z[v�L,w�S�vyZ1L`w2w�K�Z[v�xzMHd�giOiU�Z � ��

��� � J

��´ ��� ¾P¯��s¿�­~²��ÿ�¾È²�¯ �P¹

o!L,xzu�OiU�\�w�Oix�Z�{�M�v!Q�Q � � W� ¡��^k�L[��}

o!L,xzu�OiU�\�w�Oix�Z�{�M�v�pTZ[v�wyOPd[L,g�xzZ,L,Usd8S�vyv�Z[UHw � � W �qnbª?�TZ�L`v�}

o!L,xzu�OiU�\�w�Oix�Z�{�M�v�pTZ[v�wyOPd[L,g(}DK�Z,L`v2d8S�v�v�Z�Uqw � � W� �^k�L[��}

Page 66: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

���

� ��� � � � � d8M�UqwyOiUHS�Z,k �

��L`v�L,xzZ[wyZ[v�} QT�Hx �=M�g ��L,giS�Z,}

�C­Tº � ¾P¯��s¿�­�² ��¿[¾È²f¯ � ¹

��Z[gPL,w�OipTZ_d8M�S�u�giOtU�\^d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw � �HnX¢ �

QTS�v�{§L�d8Z!�jgeL��TZ�v�d8MTZ�� d8OtZ[Uqw � � �Hn¸�

�� �=²��¿�­~²��ÿ�¾È²�¯ �P¹

��Z[gPL,w�OipTZ_L�k�N�S=}DwyxzZ[UHw*w�OtxzZ_d8MTZ�� d8OiZ[UHw � �Hn¸©

�=M�U�\�OiwyS=kqOtU=L`g)�=L�}�OiUm¨�OPkqwyK � W � ª����

�2L��HgiZ�Oi\�K^{�v�OPd�w�OiM�Umd8MTZ�� d8OiZ[UHw � � W� ¢�ª���� -Hx

w�OtxzZ_}Dw�Z�u � � � K�M�S�v�}

Page 67: paper1 final Oct01 - dept.atmos.ucla.edu · K Z L } } OixzOtgPL,w OiM U uv M giZ[x { M v¤w KZsd8M Su giZ,k®MHd8Z,L`U L,w xzM~}Du K Z v Z }D }Dw Z x OtU wyK Zzw vyM u Oed[L`g

� ¢

� ��� ����� JCM�xzu4L`v�Oe}DM�URM,{�{�M�vyZ,d[L�}Dw�v�S�U:L,U=k:L�}�}�OixzOtgPL`wyOiM�Uzv�S�U4}

� �qu=Z[vyOixzZ[UHw�} rBO�$U�M � ©zQ�Q ��� � a � �

rBM^k�L`w�L^L�}y}DOtxzOigeL`w�OtM�U �qn � ¡�¢ �qn � ©,£T� �Hn¸��¡ � ¢ �qnb����ª��

� � � ¨�Oiw�K®Q�Q � � � ª�� � � � �qn ��� ¡ �qn � ��¡�¢ �Hn¸��¡�©`£ �qnb����� �

� � � ¨�OiwyK³Q�Q �� � � ¢�¢ � 0 � � n¸�,£T� �qnb� � ©�� �Hn¸�,£Tª�¢ �qnb�`£T��©

� � � ¨�Otw�KEQ�Q W7 � � ©�¡ � 0 � �qn¸����� �qnb� � ª � �Hn¸� � ��� �qnb�������

� � � ¨�Otw�KEQ�Q a � � � ��� � 0 � �qn � ª�ª �qnb� � � � �Hn¸����� � �qnb��� � �

� � � ¨�Otw�Km© � Q�Q �qn � ©�� �qnb� � ��¡ �Hn¸��� � ¡ �qnb����ª��

� � � ¨�OiwyK � � � � £T¡�� � � �qn¸����� �qnb����¡�� �Hn¸����ª � �qnb����©�¡

� � � ¨�Oiw�K � � � � ����� � �qn¸�T¢,ª �qnb����¡ � �Hn¸����ª�ª �qnb����©T¢

� � � ¨�Otw�K �� a � � ����� � 0 � �qn¸� � © �qnb������© �Hn¸����ª � �qnb����©�ª

� � � ¨�Otw�Km� � � �qn¸� � � �qnb����¡ � �Hn¸����ª�� �qnb����©�©

� � � ¨�Otw�Kmª � � �qn¸��ª�ª �qnb� � ��© �Hn¸����ª � �qnb������¡

Â�� �J'V@V] � ]�-�,�'m, /�-�'A,�K�-04^ÍIÆ ÄL-�'A'7%('V!&5G%('o5 %('7-0?�,�!A@S'AIE �GE %U4�,�@D,U,�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E�m%('&5G%(',�!A!*�H8Q�31J,�@*�3% E�'AIE !q#��"@D�_/X,2'V�"%(I !&4�,�@D,m!A-0@A!%� !A-0-m@A-'& @�5 %('g4-0@D,��"1"! &I !A�JE KF@D� -S-'& @A-�E 4-04��.,�1J8T,�E��1"@A-�' �PÑ�*Ë0C


Recommended