POPULIST LEADERS: ACHIEVEMENTS & CHALLENGES

PART I

POPULIST LEADERS

ACHIEVEMENTS & CHALLENGES

PART IINTRODUCTION

Populism in today’s day and age can be defined as an ideology that caters to the general populace and is directed against the allegedly corrupt elite. It can be also be looked at as an antonym to pluralism, that provides equal validity to varied ideologies. Populists are leaders who claim to be in cohesion with the pulse of a nation and believe that they are the only representatives of the people’s aspirations. Populism is also looked as a theory that has the capability of bringing a country’s government and the population closer to each other, given that populism revolves around ensuring that the voice of the people should be heard. The mounting public disaffection against the status-quo and apprehensions against technological changes, globalization and economic inequality combined with a sense of nativism, xenophobia, racism and rising Islamophobia have contributed significantly in the ascent of populism across the globe. Populists in multiple countries are regarded as individuals who are responsible for the creation of two homogenous groups in a society, the elitist (a group that has ruled the country for a considerable period of time) and the supporters of populist measures (directed at fulfilling the aspirations of a minority/majority of the population).

That said, populism differs from region to region and cannot be defined by a certain set of parameters. However, it can be cited that populists are rule-breakers that transgress on the basic rules of the political game, that have been in place for centuries. Further, these leaders share some common characteristics within themselves, such as short, simple slogans, direct language, coarse behavior, multifaceted engagement with the public and a supposed hard working persona, that they believe engenders them to the masses. Populists are also known to challenge the western-centric approach to a liberal democracy, that encompasses values such as civic rights, secularism and the rule of law. May it be religious-conservative Recep Erdogan of Turkey, secular-nationalist Geert Wilders of the Netherlands or secular-authoritarian Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, the rise of populism across the world has raised concerns of the formation of a new order that might lead to divisions in society, restrict the global economy and might even lead to internal and external conflicts in a particular region. 

Having said that, the fact remains that certain populists have risen to the helm of affairs from humble beginnings and are recognized as individuals who can understand the socio-economic problems faced by a majority of the population. This report sheds light on a few significantpopulist leaders with diverse ideologies and certain similarities. Furthermore, the report correlates their rise to the seat of power directly with their capacity of retaliating to a perceived threat, initiating a conflict or heightening diplomatic tensions in a specific area of influence. This report deals with the achievements and challenges faced by populist leaders across five continents.

USA

Venezuela

India

Russia

France

Philippines

ChinaTurkey

Somalia

ACHIEVEMENTS

Erdogan took office as a Prime Minister in 2003 after AKP party’s victory in Parliamentary elections. This was followed by the introduction of series of reforms to improve the existing judicial, civil-military relations, economic reforms as well as human rights practices in line with the EU norms, with the ultimate aim of gaining membership of the EU. The popularity of the party and Erdogan surged given the steady rate of economic growth that was recorded along with improvements in other economic parameters like the decline in inflation, increase in domestic consumption, the rise in the per capita income was recorded between 2003-11 as a result of aforementioned reforms.

Moreover, the popularity revived further, especially following the failed coup attempt allegedly by Fethullah Gulen (FETO) in July 2016, which facilitated the AKP party to capitalize on the existing pro-Erdogan sentiments and call for a constitutional referendum in which he secured 51.41% votes, barely sufficient to make amendments to the constitution. It facilitated the transition of Turkey from a Parliamentary System to an executive Presidential system thus vesting additional powers in the hands of the President. Furthermore, keeping in mind the provisions under the new reforms, Erdogan can officially hold office, at best till 2029. Amidst this, the scope of any major economic restructuring or reforms remains limited as more focus will be invested in the political transition. The economic restructuring is more likely to be introduced in a phased manner and will be significantly contingent on the domestic and international situation prevailing at the time.

Meanwhile, given the current state of affairs and as precedent suggests, it remains likely that multiple arrests of individuals suspected of opposing the government remain likely to continuein the short run. As observed in the months immediately following the failed coup in July 2016, a state of emergency was declared across Turkey which facilitated large-scale arrests of individuals for allegedly belonging to the FETO. Additional arrests of individuals alleged linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) or Islamic State (IS), suspected of indulging in subversive activities were recorded especially in central locales like Ankara and Istanbul, alongside continued attacks in Kurdish-dominated south-eastern provinces. Also, rehabilitation and reconstruction of infrastructure in areas damaged as a result of security operations are likely to continue in the southeast, in tandem with continued security operations, as part of the Turkish government’s ‘carrot and stick’ policy to tackle the Kurdish militancy in the region.  

Furthermore, the Turkish troop presence is likely to continue in Syria to deny IS from capitalizing on the security vacuum that may potentially be left behind following the retreat of Turkish forces. Moreover, given the notable downtick in Kurdish militancy perpetrated by the PKK as well as its splinter group, the Kurdish Freedom Falcons (TAK), security operations including airstrikes in Iraq are likely to continue to capitalize on the positive momentum gained by against the militants in the region.

Moreover, the continued tension between EU majors like Germany and Netherlands with the Turkish regime may delay revival of the economy. These incidents are likely to have an impact on the economy, as the political uncertainty is likely to force foreign investors to adopt a wait and watch approach. However, the scope for a downturn in political engagements remains limited given that the refugee crisis continues to be a pressing issue affecting both Turkey and EU and warrants effective measures and cooperation between the two. 

Despite the surge in popularity, the minuscule margin by which Erdogan succeeded in his attempts to introduce the constitutional amendments, including the failure to attain a majority in major cities like Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir highlights the continued differences on political issues concerning Erdogan amongst Turkish electorate.

Additionally, at the regional level, given the continued Turkish military engagements in Syria and Iraq, prospects of escalation of localized conflicts into a wider conflagration with US or Russian-backed forces remains ever present. This view is further bolstered by the ‘clutter’ and overlapping interest of multiple groups operating in and around northern Syria.

Finally, if the slow pace of economic growth continues, it may trigger anti-government sentiments, ultimately manifesting in incidents of civil unrests and protests across the country. To avoid this, Erdogan has to adopt a series of measures to restore investors confidence in the country by introducing economic reforms, including avoidance of excessive interference in the functioning of the Central Bank, adopting a conciliatory and non-confrontational stance towards Turkey's major trading partners-EU, as well as further stabilizing the security situation across the country.

CHALLENGES

Following the landslide victory achieved by former Davao City Mayor, Rodrigo Duterte in the presidential elections of 2016, the Philippines has witnessed several socio-economic developments. Duterte’s victory in the elections was ascribed majorly to the resentment in the population with regards to the previous Liberal Party (LP) government led by Benigno Aquino III and its managing of local issues such as the drug menace, deteriorating law and order situation, perception of unequal distribution of state funds within the archipelago nation as well as the communist and Islamist insurgencies in various regions of the nation. Duterte’s record as a no- nonsense leader of Davao City coupled with his lineage as a leader from the southern Philippine island of Mindanao aided the prospects of the former Mayor.

The commitment of Duterte to the cause of federalism proved instrumental in securing his electoral victory and the strongman’s ascendancy to the helm of the country’s affairs. The Philippines is divided into three island division, namely, Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. The public impression that Manila, the national capital, and seat of power located in Luzon enjoyed most of the central funding which had led to the concentrated development in the northern part of the country, is likely to have affected the decision of voters from the Visayas and Mindanaoto vote for Duterte. Further, voters from Luzon are reported to have provided a mandate to Duterte as well given his credentials as a strong enforcer and an anti-drug crusader. Thus, the promises of decentralization of the Philippine polity and the idea of transferring power to a group of newly created provinces supposedly increased the approval rating of Duterte throughout the election campaign leading to his subsequent success. Advantages of the introduction of a regionally populist policy such as federalism were cited as hastening of economic development due to redistribution of funds and resources to the provinces, neutralization of the Muslim insurgency in the south in relation to the provision of more autonomy to the provinces and associated reforms such as transformation of the bicameral legislature of the country to a unicameral setup.

ACHEIVEMENTS

The incumbent President’s apex poll promise during the election campaign in 2015-16 was to bring an end to the drug menace through stringent law enforcement. The drug problem has been endemic to the Philippines and successive governments have been unable to stem the sale and use of drugs such as Crystal Meth (locally known as Shabu), Marijuana, Cocaine and Heroin across the country. In the aftermath of the ascendancy of Duterte to the presidency, the Philippine National Police (PNP) led a brutal campaign targeting narcotics use and trafficking while the President delivered speeches asking the general public to arm themselves against drug dealers. These sermons are said to have instigated a  spree of vigilante killings across the country combined with those perpetrated by the state police. The death toll related to Duterte’s drug war stands at approximately 8,000 individuals at the time of writing and is liable to increase even though the President suspended the anti-drug campaign on January 30, 2017, to allegedly weed out corrupt officials within the PNP. The drug war has been criticized by several international bodies as well as western countries such as the US and UK as being in violation of basic human rights. However, the radical populist measure which has led to thousands of deaths of civilians within a year of Duterte’s presidency does not seem to have significantly affected the President’s popularity. An approval rating survey conducted in March 2017, showed Duterte’s approval rating at 78 percent down 83 percent in December 2016.

The Philippines has been under the shadow of communist and Islamist insurgencies for decades. While the communist movement has spread across the country under the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) and its armed wing the New People’s Army (NPA), the Islamist insurgencies of the south remain restricted to the island of Mindanao and surrounding islands. Another populist poll promise of the former Davao City Mayor was the resolution of both these militant movements either through negotiations or by the means of forceful decimation in the case of groups such as Abu Sayyaf, that have refused any kind of peace talks with the government in Manila.

Given Duterte’s background and his Mindanaon origins, the incumbent President has received breakthroughs with regards to brokering a peace deal with major factions of the Islamist insurgency, including the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) as well as other splinter groups. Further, groups such as Abu Sayyaf have been dealt with the full force of the Philippine Army which has allegedly led to the depletion of operational capabilities of the Islamist militant group that has gained notoriety through the abduction and execution of multiple foreigners. With respect to the CPP/NPA, continued ceasefire violations allegedly conducted by the rogue communist rebels have resulted in the stalling of the essential peace process and have led to an environment of uncertainty within the organization’s areas of influence. That said, constructive dialogue and repeated engagements with various stakeholders of the communist movement have provided an optimistic outlook for both the government and insurgents. The recent attacks conducted by the NPA in Davao City on April 29, 2017,  provide acceptance to the argument that despite Duterte’s outreach, certain elements in the NPA will continue to target security personnel and local government establishments in the coming days. 

On the economic front, while Duterte has continued to concentrate on his war on drugs and maintaining law and order in the country, his economic advisors have remained pivotal in ensuring that the Philippine economy remains robust, secure and elevated. Before assuming office on June 30, 2016, Duterte’s economic team had announced a 10 point socio-economic agenda aimed at reducing poverty in the country by 14 percent by the end of the President’s term in 2022. Populist economic policies were driven by this agenda and are said to have reaped certain benefits. The Philippines displayed a 6.8 percent GDP growth in 2016 despite a worldwide economic slowdown. Riding on a strong domestic demand, the industrial and household consumption grew by 7.6 and 6.3 percent respectively while business investments expanded by 15 percent. Initiatives with regards to employment, poverty and renovating aging infrastructure have helped strengthen economic growth in the Philippines under Duterte. Further, the President’s state visit to China in October 2016 and the supposed alignment away from the country’s long-time economic and strategic ally, the US led to the perception that thePhilippine economy’s dependence on the US is liable to reduce in the coming days.

While Duterte has thus far maintained his popularity across the country, a number of challenges might be faced by the President with respect to the implementation of his populist policies. Federalism, a reform that provided credibility to Duterte’s poll pitch has been vehemently pushed by Duterte and his cabinet, but it is liable to face roadblocks which might stem in opposition displayed to decentralization of power in the country by members of the opposition as well as certain members of Duterte’s alliance in Congress. The perception that the southeast Asian nation might not be ready to accept the policy, given its far-reaching effects is likely to affect the passage of any bill regarding federalism. Apprehensions of local clans taking over the proposed local government units (LGU), thus increasing the political base of these clans have been cited in opposition to the proposed reform. Thus, the decentralization of power would lead to passage of power from the supposed central leadership in Manila to LGU’s under the power of local clan leaders, who remain unchallenged for decades and have considerable political hold in their respective regions of influence. This situation might lead to various economic and security challenges for the current and succeeding governments.

Keeping in mind that Duterte has been able to achieve a feat that many past Presidents could not, which is bringing various warring Islamist insurgent groups on the negotiating table, the mood with respect to a resolution of the issue of militancy and granting of autonomy under the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) has been optimistic. However, the execution of recommendations made by the newly instated Bangsamoro Transition Committee (BTC) by taking into consideration local demands of the insurgent leaders should provide obstructions for the Duterte administration, specifically in relation to the level of autonomy received by restive regions under the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM). An opinion poll conducted in March 2015 had highlighted that 44 percent of the population was against the implementation of the BBL while only 22 percent supported the bill. The submission of the draft BBL is set for a May 18, 2017, deadline.

CHALLENGES

Repeated skirmishes between the NPA and Philippine security personnel have acted to disintegrate the peace process launched by the Duterte administration by allowing members of the communist umbrella organization the National Democratic Front (NDF) into his cabinet. The President has repeatedly demanded a cessation of hostilities while endorsing leaders of the communist movement who have apparently supported his call. Duterte under his peace process has demanded that the communist insurgents stop claiming jurisdiction over the territory, stop the collection of revolutionary tax, stop attacks on military and police personnel and signing of a bilateral ceasefire. While talks continue, reigning in non-compliant actions of the NPA by incentives or force remains a matter of contention for the Duterte administration. The continued public support extended to the NPA and CPP by the tribal population of areas where these organizations have an operational presence has acted to further complicate the issue.

Taking into account that the drug war has led to massive outrage across the world and specifically in western countries such as the US and UK who have been strong allies of the Philippines in the past, the current developments might have a direct effect on trade and defense agreements with the western powers, specifically the US. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) (an agreement that allows the rotation of US troops in the Philippines and lets the US construct and maintain military bases in the Philippines) between the Philippines and the US still remains operational, however Duterte’s remarks against the criticism of President Obama against his drug war acted to sour relations between the two countries. However, the election of Donald Trump in 2016 might lead to a renewed partnership between the Philippine and the US. Recently, As both leaders are known for their political rhetoric and share a strongman populist image, a revitalized relationship between the Philippines and the US seems to be in the offing. Moreover, as China expands its influence across southeast Asia, the partnership might prove crucial in negating Chinese influence in the South China Sea. That said, changes by Duterte in the Philippine foreign policy envisioning better ties with China might make future developments unpredictable. It remains to be seen if Duterte continues his engagement with Beijing or moves back to receiving support from Washington DC to assert Philippines’ sovereignty over islands in disputed waters.

ACHEIVEMENTSIn the general elections of 2014, incumbent Gujarat Chief Minister (CM) Narendra Modi was elected to the Prime Ministership (PM) with a landslide majority. Many attributed this victory to three basic factors. Firstly, the good governance model set up by Modi in his home state Gujarat, which strengthened economic development. Secondly, the alleged scams and financial irregularities of the previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Indian National Congress (INC), which has ruled India for more than 60 years. Lastly, the polarization of votes of the Hindu community in favor of Modi’s public image as a combination of a person with a dynamic developmental approach coupled with his affinity to religious identity. Modi also utilized his credentials as a member of the Other Backward Class (OBC) community and his impoverished past to garner the support of a majority of the populace. All these characteristics indicate the populist nature of Modi’s triumph in 2014.

Modi has managed to keep his popularity intact within the first three years of his prime ministership and his party has dealt with negative criticism of certain policies with a straightforward approach. The BJP has defended itself with proclamations against the elitism of the INC and the communist policies of the left. This has apparently given jingoists and social media enthusiasts that overtly support the BJP, the license to go on an overdrive in support of the party and its national policies. Most of the social media marketing for the BJP has reportedly been achieved with the help of volunteers who have contributed on their accord. The launching of schemes such as the ‘Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana’ (Prime Minister’s People Money Scheme) a financial inclusion initiative, specifically targeting the impoverished small and medium scale farmers can be cited as the beginning of implementation of populist measures by the Modi administration. The opening of 15 million bank accounts by the Indian government on the inauguration of the scheme on August 28, 2014 and the deposition of 10 billion USD under the scheme by February 1, 2017 were seen as monumental achievements of the government.   

The surgical strikes conducted by the Indian Army across the Line of Control (LoC) in response to the martyring of 17 security personnel in Uri, Jammu & Kashmir also received adulation for thepolitical will displayed by the incumbent government. Further, following the sizeable mandate received by the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir and the formation of an alliance with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) regional party, the BJP at the center has maintained a rigid approach with respect to social unrest in the Kashmir Valley region. Its commitment to a strong response to any provocation by the Pakistan Army as seen during the surgical strikes as well as the no- negotiation stance with regards to separatist organizations such as the Hurriyat Conference has been lauded by a section of the populace. The risk Demonetization economic was praised specifically by the dominant lower and middle-income sections of the Indian society, despite the fact that this group was likely to be affected the most by the reform. However, if the economic policy did actually work remains a daunting question, specifically with its promise of securing ‘black’ money that is yet to be quantified by the Finance Ministry. Therefore, it can be assessed that the Modi administration has seemingly been able to deliver on its poll promises through schemes and reforms that have a direct correspondence to the BJP’s manifesto for the general elections of 2014.

The Modi administration during the initial phases of its tenure faced several allegations ranging from religious intolerance to suppression of the electronic media as well as the freedom of expression. The Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) incidents in Delhi, gave further credence to the argument that the government had a stringent stance with regards to supposed anti-national elements. As understood by the social media trends as well as the public sentiment, a majority of the population conformed with government’s measures in dealing with left-leaning student union leaders of the university, who had allegedly raised anti-India slogans. This provided another instance of popular support for the PM’s leadership within the country. 

Further, on the economic front, freshly initiated overhauls of the tax regime and a new bankruptcy law have been noteworthy economic reforms launched by the Modi government. The passing of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and supplementary bills in both houses of the Parliament, a move that will bring India under a single integrated tax net since independence has been hailed by supporters as well as detractors of the BJP as a monumental achievement. In his New Year’s Eve address to the nation, the PM rolled out another set of populist economic measures, 31 days before the presentation of the annual Union Budget. Schemes for the poor and lower-middle class, farmers, pregnant women, senior citizens and small entrepreneurs were the highlights of Modi’s speech. These measures were assessed as a counter for the financial drawbacks of the Demonetization reform, which caused multiple hardships for the common man. The introduction of schemes directed at poverty alleviation, including the subsidized LPG cylinder distribution, gold monetization, new accessible irrigation facilities, welfare housing, cheap insurance policies and novel pension programs have also be branded as populist. The launching of long-term projects such as Make in India, Digital India, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan (Clean India) as well as the latest UDAAN Yojana (cheap airfare scheme) has also acted to signal the populist shift of the Modi administration.

Following the BJP’s crucial victory in Uttar Pradesh in March 2017 (the most populous state in the country), the newly elected state government announced a massive loan waiver for debt- ridden farmers of the state. While loan waivers have been stringently opposed by the Modi administration in the past, the step is liable to draw comparisons with the INC government which adhered to such populist measures with the intent of garnering the support of the financially weaker sections of the population. As cited by Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the waiver would embolden wilful defaulters and would set a bad precedent for the country as a whole, given that other states with similar complications would demand identical freebies.Approximately, 340, 000 jobs have been created every year under the Modi administration between 2014-17, as 13 million youth are ready to join the Indian workforce in 2017. The IT, BPO, and textiles sectors have fared better than other sectors in providing skill-based employment as other sectors have not been able to generate a significant number of jobs for the youth of the country.  

With regards to allegations of attacks on press liberty and the freedom of expression, the Modi government is liable to maintain its stand on no rapprochement with the affected entities, given the popular support it enjoys at the current stage and that the electronic media remains divided into pro-BJP and anti-BJP factions. That said, whilst curtailing the abilities of anti-national elements and political outfits to exercise social influence, the Modi administration will be required to reign in its own hate-mongers and continue to concentrate on its pro-development agenda. The persistent rhetoric of certain BJP leaders in association with religious intolerance might hamper the identity of the Modi government and lead to its metamorphosis from being an economically progressive government to a religious conservative administration. The government, despite repeated assurances from the PM, has continued to remain ambivalent on the issue of religious intolerance, particularly with regards to cow-vigilantism (extra-judicial persecution of individuals suspected of trading or consuming beef). Several incidents of mob lynching of members of the minority Muslim community within the country with minimal resistance from the local law enforcement has led to the formation of an impression that the BJP governments at the centre and in the states are complicit with the activities of fringe groups such as the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Bajrang Dal and others or have turned a blind eye to their criminal tendencies. The direct link of the BJP to its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), that shares a number of ideological leanings with fringe groups such as the VHP and Bajrang Dal could be the basis of this accusation of the complicity of the ruling party in targeting minorities. Hate-speeches delivered by certain leaders of the BJP during election campaigning have given justification to the idea that the BJP might agree with the idea of a Hindu-Rashtra (Hindu nation), a theory that envisions India as a dominion of Hindus, in contrast to the secular nature of the Indian Constitution. Surprisingly, the rising Hindu nationalism across the country and the polarization of votes across religious lines can be looked at a populist measure in itself, given that approximately 80 percent of Indian population is Hindu and has never been appeased on religious lines. 

CHALLENGES

Another area of concern for the Modi administration which has received considerable attention from the international media, is the Kashmir issue and the developing unrest which refuses to die down in the Kashmir Valley region. While, major instances of unrest began in the aftermath of the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani, the agitation has spiralled into a movement which can be characterized as pro-Independence led by the Hurriyat Conference. The central government’s ways of dealing with the unrest have received strong criticism from the local and international media as various human rights organizations and opposition parties have called for a dialogue with the separatists as well as Pakistan rather than giving the Indian Army an alleged free-hand under the Armed Forces Special Provisions Act (AFSPA). However, the BJP is liable to stick to its decision of providing no olive branch to the Hurriyat Conference while bolstering the Army’s presence in the Valley. This might in-turn induce more militancy in Jammu and Kashmir state and lead to further attacks across the border targeting civilians and security personnel. Furthermore, in response to any future attacks, reprisal measures might be taken by the Indian Armed Forces leading to the persistence of heightened tensions in Jammu and Kashmir.While India has maintained its status as being the fastest growing economy of the world, government indicators have highlighted several factors that can be marked as being detrimental to the Indian economy under the Modi administration between 2014-17. In 2016- 17, bank credit grew by 5 percent while plant load factor ( a measure of variability of consumption or generation) stood at 60 percent, the lowest figures in 60 and 15 years respectively. Compared to the 2.1 million jobs generated during the first two years of the UPA government’s second tenure, only 440,000 jobs were generated during the tenure of the Modi administration between 2014-16. The gargantuan issue of Non-Performing Assets (NPA) has been another matter of contention for the current government. Stressed loan figures have been recorded to approximately equal ₹ 14 lakh crore and the bad loans scenario in the country could have a direct impact on growth as banks remain the only major source for funding private investment. Further, the implementation of GST is likely to provide several roadblocks for the government in the short term as several processes, administrative drawbacks and compliance structures need to be put in place before the implementation is initiated. Moreover, PM Modi’s vision of turning India into a cashless economy might face several limitations, despite the government’s efforts of educating the masses about digital transactions. Around 68 percent of financial transactions are conducted using cash in India. 

ACHIEVEMENTSFarmajo was appointed as a PM in October 2010 following majority votes in the Parliament, gaining 297/392 votes. This was followed by the downsizing of the cabinet to 18 administrative posts from 39 portfolios aimed at achieving efficiency which again was backed by popular vote.Given political differences, Farmajo resigned from the post of PM in June 2011 however the short duration involved some significant policies that greatly contributed to his return to the Somali political arena as a President in April 2017. Among others, anti-corruption measures, including setting up of an independent Anti-corruption commission tasked with reviewing the government decisions and check for discrepancies and improve transparency was set up. Moreover,  prompt clearance of payment of the security forces and civil service officials, which had been delayed by the predecessor were implemented.  Following the resignation, in 2012 Farmajo set up the Tayo party and contested the Presidential election in 2012 and was eliminated in the first round of voting resulting in his extension of support for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who ultimately won the Presidential election. In 2017,  Farmajo succeeded in gaining 184/326 seats in the runoffs in Presidential elections.Some of the popular measures the incumbent Somali President has adopted immediately following his election as a President is ‘declaration of War’ against the al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab militant group, which has established a strong operational presence in southern parts of the country, including in the peripheral areas of the capital Mogadishu. The declaration of war is parallelly followed by the announcement of amnesty to all the Islamist militants if they surrender to the government forces till June 2017. Secondly given the high degree of corruption within the system Farmajo’s strong anti-corruption credentials as witnessed during his short tenure as a PM, provides hope for it to be reintroduced during his tenure as a President. Though no specific reforms or measures have been announced so far in his presidency, given precedent, the likelihood remains high for certain transparency and accountability measures to be announced in the weeks and months to follow paving way for the influx of foreign aid. Thirdly, given the substantial support received by Farmajo from the international community especially from Turkey, UAE, USA, UK among others and incidentally, at a time when Somalia is mired with famine and drought conditions, a sizable amount of foreign aid can be expected to make its way into the country. This in conjunction with efforts to introduce anti-corruption measures presents an optimistic scenario of a relative degree of the economic revival of Somalia in the long run.

Despite prolonged counterinsurgency efforts by security forces that include the Somali National Army (SNA) and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), al-Shabaab continues to maintain a sizable operational presence across southern Somalia. The impact of the group’s entrenched presence is witnessed in the multitude of attacks that the group has been able to conduct in Mogadishu despite the typical high levels of security arrangements that are in place by virtue of being the capital.  However, with the formation of the Farmajo government, al-Shabaab has intensified attacks against high-ranking officials belonging to both the civil administration as well as the military establishment in a bid to undermine the confidence that the new government enjoys from its own citizens and the international community.Additionally, the problems of chronic famine and drought has further deteriorated the economic situation forcing excessive reliance on foreign aid, which in turn is difficult to come by given the high levels of insecurity coupled with corruption in the country, discouraging donors from engaging with Somalia. This has greatly enabled the militant group as they seek to portray the government as the enabler of the ongoing ecological phenomenon while furthering their image by providing food and medical supplies to the drought-affected populace.Furthermore, the resurgence of piracy attacks can be attributed to the ongoing humanitarian crisis which has increased their reliance on their coastal waters. This poses a potent threat to the strategic shipping lanes in the Gulf of Aden. Despite the overall downtick in successful acts of piracy since 2012 that can be partially attributed to effective policing of the waters coupled with sophisticated and bolstered onboard security arrangements, this resurgence serves to highlight the persistent threat of attacks in the vicinity of the Somali coast.  This view is further bolstered by the eight attacks in April alone that have been reported so far. If the current scenario persists, wherein Farmajo continues to enjoy the confidence of the Somali citizens as well as the international community, it is likely that more policies will come into effect to address issues of militancy, rampant corruption, and an ailing economy. Keeping the latter issues aside, policies addressing the threat of militancy is likely to face a strong backlash from the jihadist group given its entrenched presence in the region. Additionally, it is important to note that al-Shabaab does enjoy the support of certain sections of the civilian population and even certain clans like the Murusade clan that pledged allegiance to the group in January this year. 

CHALLENGES