Date post: | 01-Jun-2018 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | anonymous-ht0mij |
View: | 218 times |
Download: | 0 times |
of 18
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
1/18
Paramount Resources Pitch (POU.TO)
Jonathan J. ChangBComm, 2017
Ait!a Pate" BA, #conomics, 201$
%i!i Jin BA, #conomics, 201&
'atas riui*+is BA, #conomics, 2017
Jan 2, 201$
This presentation is for informational purposes only, and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation to buyor sell any securities, investment products or other financial product or service, an official confirmation of
any transaction, or an official statement of Queens Economics Investment Council (QEIC). Any vies oropinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of QEIC.
E!E"#$ % &'E" E*ploration % &roduction
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
2/18
Industry+readon
Company'vervie
-anaementTeam
InvestmentThesis &oint /0
InvestmentThesis &oint /1
Company2aluation
&ro3ectedCatalysts
Associated"iss
&rice Taret4ummary
Our Agena
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
3/18
56
57
86
87
76
77
ector O-er-ie an Out"oo+
/Sources: Capital IQ
P "oa" #nerg! ne3 (ihares)
4hen i"" there e a
ounce ac+ i56ossi"e
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
4/18
56.66
86.66
76.66
96.66
:6.66
;6.66
iht (!$-E?) Auture Contracts
1.66
1.76
5.66
5.76
8.66
8.76
7.66 !atural #as = @enry @ub (!$-E?) @istorical &ricin !atural #as = @enry @ub (!$-E?) Auture Contracts
8istorica" Commoit! Pricing an 201$# Pro9ections
:Sources: Capital IQ
;atura" as 8P
Crue Oi" 8P
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
5/18
Com6an! O-er-ie
$Sources: Capital IQ
Paramount Resources Business o"ume Per5ormance
?inancia" 'etrics (Ca"ue 8,6;0.9 T#>#BT
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
6/18
Com6an! O-er-ie
&Sources: Capital IQ
Prouction 6"it Paramounts n-estments
@eavy 'il (4 F bbl)D 8G>ihtF-edium 'il (4 F bbl)D 6G
!#> (4 F bbl)D 01G
!atural #as (4 F mcf)D ;8G
'ar+et >a"ue o5 D/:E '' or D/./2 shareas o5 Januar! 201$
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
7/18
#3ecuti-e Team
7Sources: Paramount Resources Company Website
Joine in 17E
4as Presient6rior to 2002
#36erience in-arious areas o5O
ince June 2002
Been ith com6an!since 11
C#O o5 Tri"og!#nerg! an irectoro5 trategic Oi" as Ft.
C"a!ton Rie"", C#O James Rie"", Presient COO
Phi" Tahma@ian, >P 'istream
O-er 2$ !ears o5e36erincein Oinustr!
er-e as >P'istream at#ncana 6re-ious"!
ince 'a! 200/
nstrumenta" ins6inGo55 o5 Tri"og!#nerg! Cor6
Pre-ious"! he"senior 6osition ithA"erta #nerg!Com6an! Ft.
Bernar Fee, C?O
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
8/18
n-estment Thesis Out"ine
ESources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
Thouh costly to build a ne plant (176-) it entonline in the sprin of 1608
Increasin output throuh 160: to 096,666 +oeFd 07,666 +blFd condenser comin online in April
H ncrease Prouction H Attracti-e ross 'argins
Competin in unstable oil maret, &aramount hasdone e*ceptional ell to maintain solid rossmarins
Currently sits at 77G Indicates ability to compete in lo oil prices and is
positioned to outperform competition
1607 1609 160: 160; 160< 1616 1610 1611 1615 1618
;.06
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
9/18
Argument H ncreasing Prouction
Sources: Paramount Investor Presentation
Pro9ecte Prouction Ca6acit! ncreases
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
10/18
Argument H ncrease Prouction
Condensate stabiliHation isa process of utiliHin hatas once considered
aste of the productionprocess and filters it somore can be used
!e facility oin online inApril of 1607 ill increasethe companies condensatestabiliHation capacity to15,766 bblFd from ;,766
bblFd
All plants improvements and ne constructionpro3ects are fully funded
@ih level of debt but once the plants are at full
capacity they ill be producin :6,666 +oeFd hicheven at 76+blFd there ill be increasin cashflos
!early doublin production
ecreasin to under
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
11/18
P"ants an ?aci"ities
&lant Capacity&otential 4ales
2olume
-usreau eepCut 166 --cfFd 76,666 +oeFd
-usreasu"efride 87 --cFfd ;,766 +oeFd
4moy eep Cut 166 --cfFd 06,666 +oeFd
Jarr 86 --cfFd 06,666 +oeFd
'ther :6 --cfFd 8,766 +oeFd
4ubtotal 777 --cfFd ;5,666 +oeFd
nderConstruction Capacity
&otential 4ales2olume
Condensate4tabiliHerE*pansion !FA 07,666 +oeFd
Jarr E*pansion 86 --cfFd 06,666 +oeFd
9 = 0; 066 --cfFd 17,666 +oeFd
5 = 07 066 --cfFd 17,666 +oeFd
4ubtotal 186 --cfFd :7,666 +oeFd
&ro3ected Total :
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
12/18
Argument H ustantia" ross 'argins
12Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Report
'il prices are seein a bit of sure after hittin thelo point durin last ee
"ecovery form I4I4 In midst of this recovery, e are bullish oin
forard at the taret of 97Fbbl by Q8, in line ithmost analysts
&aramounts hih ross marins allos them to
compete in rouh periods of lo prices @ave better ability to absorb the lo price shoc Allos &aramount the fle*ibility to maintain profits
and continue investments
trong Pricing Poer
Oi" 'ar+et
Comination o5 'argins Prouction
&aramount has done e*cellent 3ob in maintainin
the hih marins but also aims to increaseproduction Increase in production paired ith their marins ill
be lead to a stron 1607 for &aramount
ross 'argins G ncrease
166< 1606 1600 1601 1605 16086
76
066
076
166
176
566
576
6G
06G
16G
56G
86G
76G
96G
"evenue (-) #ross &rofit (-) #ross -arins
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
13/18
Argument H ustantia" ross 'argins
1/Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Report
Paramounts A-erage Prouction Cost
166; 166< 1606 1600 1601 1605
08.50
01.:1
06.:6 06.86
;.11
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
14/18
>a"uation = ;et Asset >a"ue (O6erating 'oe")
1:Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
;A> moe" ase on 201/ A?. ;o 6re-ious o6erations in terms o5 6rouction5or oi" san itumen so conser-ati-e 6ro9ection as mae.
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
15/18
>a"uation = ;et Asset >a"ue (;etac+ Ca"cu"ations)
1$Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
16/18
Cata"!sts
1&
Sources: Capital IQ, Equity Research Reports
&aramount hascompleted their ne4moy and -usreaudeep cut plant
. Thans to the ne
e*pansion, their output atthis plant alone can triplefrom ;,766 barrels per
day to 15,766.
E*pandin -ontneydrillin proram in theJaybob area ith toplants, one scheduled tobe online in the secondhalf of 1609 and thesecond one si* monthslater.
irst sales of ne plantcompleted in Q5 of 1608,enables &aramount tobein ramp=up productionfrom their ells to beprocessed at ne plant
The Company has drilled and completed its firstell in the illesden #reen area of estern
Alberta. The Company has also entered into a 3ointventure areement that ill increase its illesden#reen uvernay land position to ;9 ells.
'usreau an ?uture P"ants 4estern #36ansion
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
17/18
Ris+s
17
Sources: Equity Research Reports
Any mechanical issues ould
impact the rate of forecastedroth
-arins concentrated on-usreau plant e*pansion at acost of 57 million.
ue to its e*ploratory nature,lare scale technoloicalimprovements in E%&
competition ould destroy anycompetitive position and futuremarins
Condensate stabiliHer has beendelayed a couple of times anyfurther delays could bedetrimental
8/9/2019 Paramount Resources Pitch - FINAL
18/18
ummar! G Price Target
1ES C it l IQ E it R h R t
;A> ensiti-it!
Ana"!st Price Targets m6"ie Return
Kan. 1< 4hare &rice 19.