Part IV Long-Term Asset and Liability Management Existing Host Country Tax Laws Exchange Rate Projections Country Risk Analysis Risk Unique to Multinational Project MNC’s Cost of Capital Internation al Interest Rates on Long- Term Funds MNC’s Access to Foreign Financing Potential Revision in Host Country Tax Laws or Other Provisions Estimated Cash Flows of Multination al Project Required Return on Multination al Project Multination al Capital Budgeting Decisions
Transcript
Part IVLong-Term Asset and Liability Management
ExistingHost Country
Tax Laws
ExchangeRate
Projections
Country RiskAnalysis
Risk Unique toMultinational
Project
MNC’s Costof Capital
InternationalInterest Rateson Long-Term
Funds
MNC’s Access to Foreign Financing
Potential Revision in
Host Country Tax Laws or
Other Provisions
Estimated Cash Flows of Multinational
Project
Required Return on
Multinational Project
Multinational Capital
Budgeting Decisions
Direct Foreign InvestmentDirect Foreign Investment
To describe common motives for initiating direct foreign investment (DFI); and
To illustrate the benefits of international diversification.
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Motives for DFI
• MNCs commonly consider DFI because it can improve their profitability and enhance shareholder wealth.
• In most cases, MNCs engage in DFI because they are interested in boosting revenues, reducing costs, or both.
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Revenue-Related Motives for DFI
Exploit monopolistic advantages.
Establish a subsidiary in a market where competitors are unable to produce the identical product.
Diversify internationally.
Establish subsidiaries in markets with different business cycles.
Attract new sources of demand.
Establish a subsidiary or acquire a competitor in a new market.
Motives Means of Achieving Benefit
Enter profitable markets.
Acquire a competitor that has controlled its local market.
React to trade restrictions.
Establish a subsidiary in a market where trade restrictions will adversely affect export volume.
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Cost-Related Motives for DFI
Use foreign raw materials.
Establish a subsidiary in a market where raw materials are cheap and accessible. Sell the products in that market and elsewhere.
Fully benefit from economies of scale.
Establish a subsidiary in a new market where products produced elsewhere can be sold. This allows for increased production and greater production efficiency.
Motives Means of Achieving Benefit
Use foreign factors of production.
Establish a subsidiary in a market that has lower costs of labor or land. Sell the products elsewhere.
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Cost-Related Motives for DFI
Use foreign technology.
Participate in a joint venture or acquire an existing overseas plant to learn about foreign production processes, so as to improve its own operations.
Motives Means of Achieving Benefit
React to exchange rate movements.
Establish a subsidiary in a new market where the local currency is weak but is expected to strengthen over time.
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• The European Union’s recent expansion enables members to transport products throughout Europe at reduced tariffs.
• New low-wage members (such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania) were thus targeted for new DFI by MNCs that wanted to reduce manufacturing costs.
• However, there is a tradeoff – thousands of jobs were lost in Western Europe.
Motives for DFI
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Comparing the Benefits of DFI Across Countries
• The optimal method for a firm to penetrate a foreign market is partially dependent on the characteristics of the market.
• For example, if the consumers are used to buying products from local firms, then licensing arrangements or joint ventures may be more appropriate.
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• Before investing in a foreign country, the potential benefits must be weighed against the costs and risks associated with that specific country.
• In particular, the MNC will want to review the foreign country’s economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, as well as the political structure and policy issues.
Comparing the Benefits of DFI Across Countries
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Comparing the Benefits of DFIOver Time
• As conditions change over time, some countries may become more attractive targets for DFI, while other countries become less attractive.
• Europe (especially Eastern Europe), Latin America, and Asia now receive a larger proportion of DFI than in the past.
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Benefits of International Diversification
• The key to international diversification is to select foreign projects whose performance levels are not highly correlated over time.
• In this way, the various international projects are less likely to experience poor performance simultaneously.
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Merrimack Co., a U.S. firm, plans to invest in a new project in either the U.S. or the U.K.
Characteristics of Proposed Project If Located in
in the U.S. in the U.K.
Project’s mean expected annual after-tax return
Standard deviation of project’s return
Correlation of project’s return with return on existing U.S. business
25%
.09
.80
25%
.11
.02
Diversification Benefits forMerrimack Co.
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• In terms of return, neither new project has an advantage.
• With regard to risk, the new project is expected to exhibit slightly less variability in returns if it is located in the U.S.
• However, estimating the risk of the individual project without considering the overall firm would be a mistake.
Diversification Benefits forMerrimack Co.
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• Suppose that the project will constitute 30% of Merrimack’s total funds invested in itself, and that the standard deviation of return on its existing business is .10.
• If the new project is located in the U.S., the portfolio variance for the overall firm
008653.
80.09.10.30.70.209.30.10.70.
σσ22222
2222
ABBABABBAA CORRwwww σσ
Diversification Benefits forMerrimack Co.
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• If the new project is located in the U.K., the portfolio variance for the overall firm
Diversification Benefits forMerrimack Co.
• Thus, as a whole, Merrimack will generate more stable returns if the new project is located in the U.K.
0060814.
02.11.10.30.70.211.30.10.70.
22222
2222
ABBABABBAA CORRwwww σσσσ
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• Like any investor, an MNC with projects positioned around the world is concerned with the risk and return characteristics of the projects.
• The portfolio of all projects reflects the MNC in aggregate.
Diversification Analysis of International Projects
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Exp
ecte
d R
etu
rn
Risk
• When the projects are combined appropriately, the project portfolio may be able to achieve a risk-return tradeoff exhibited by any of the points on the frontier of efficient project portfolios.
Risk-Return Analysis ofInternational Projects
Frontier of efficientproject portfolios A
B
C
G
D
E F
Project A has the highest expected return and greatest risk.
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• Project portfolios along the efficient frontier exhibit minimum risk for a given expected return.
• Of these efficient project portfolios, an MNC may choose one that corresponds to its willingness to accept risk.
• The actual location of the frontier of efficient project portfolios depends on the business in which the firm is involved.
Diversification Analysis of International Projects
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Exp
ecte
d R
etu
rn
Risk
• Some MNCs have frontiers of possible project portfolios that are more desirable than the frontiers of other MNCs.
Efficient frontier for a single-product MNC
Efficient frontier fora multiproduct MNC
Diversification Analysis of International Projects
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• Our discussion suggests that MNCs can achieve more desirable risk-return characteristics from their project portfolios if they sufficiently diversify among products and geographic markets.
Diversification Analysis of International Projects
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Comparison of Economic Growth Among Countries
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DecisionsSubsequent to DFI
• Some periodic decisions are necessary:
¤ Should further expansion take place?
¤ Should the earnings be remitted to the parent, or used by the subsidiary?
• These decisions should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis.
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Host Government View of DFI
• Each government must weigh the advantages and disadvantages of DFI in its country.
• The government may provide incentives to encourage desirable forms of DFI, and impose preventive barriers or conditions on other forms of DFI.
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Incentives to Encourage DFI
• The ideal DFI solves problems such as unemployment and lack of technology without taking business away from the local firms.
• Common incentives offered by host governments include tax breaks, discounted rent for land and buildings, low-interest loans, subsidized energy, and reduced environmental restrictions.
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Barriers to DFI
• Governments are less anxious to encourage DFI that adversely affects local firms, consumers and the economy.
• DFI barriers include regulations governing mergers and acquisitions, restrictions on foreign ownership of local firms, red tape (procedural and documentation requirements), the political influence of local firms, and political instability.
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Government-Imposed Conditions to Engage in DFI
• Some governments allow international acquisitions but impose special requirements on the MNCs that desire to acquire a local firm.
• Such conditions include environmental constraints, restrictions on local sales, and employment requirements.
