+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Past, present and future of the electricity and gas...

Past, present and future of the electricity and gas...

Date post: 25-Jun-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 0 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
36
Past, present and future of the electricity and gas integration between Chile and Argentina Hugh Rudnick & Carlos Silva Boston, July 2016
Transcript
Page 1: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Past, present and future of the electricity and gas integration between 

Chile and Argentina Hugh Rudnick & Carlos Silva 

Boston, July 2016

Page 2: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

SummaryAnalyze the love & hate relation between Argentina and Chile in relation to gas and electric interconnections, the history of developments and the opportunities for the future.First, a discussion is made of the gas integration that took place in the late 1990s, with Argentina supplying abundant and economic gas to Chile, with an abrupt closing from 2004, with the lessons learned. An analysis is made of the challenges of the reintegration that is taking place, where Chile transfers electricity as well as imported LNG to Argentina, the operational and economical dimensions, and perspectives for the future, also considering  eventual electricity exchanges with Peru.

2

Page 3: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

3

Page 4: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

4

Energy demand in Latin America

MTOE

Page 5: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

5

Gas production, consumption & reserves

Source: IEA

Page 6: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

6

Gas imports and exports by country

Billion cubicmeters per annum

Source: BP, 2014

Page 7: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

7

Page 8: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Chile factsPopulation (2014) 17 ,762, 964GDP (PPP) per capita (2014) $14,980

Max power demand SIC (2015) 7,557 MWMax power demand SING (2015) 2,290 MWAnnual energy demand SIC + SING (2015) 66,468 GWh

• Electricity sector reform in 1982• All companies privately owned

8

12,478 60%

6,170 29%

2,374 11%

Thermal

Renewable

Non‐conventionalrenewable

Source: World Bank, CDEC, Systep 

SIC+SING installed capacity (June 2016)

21,022 MW

Page 9: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

9

Page 10: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

10

Concepción

Santiago

TocopillaMejillones

Paposo

Punta Arenas

BuenosAires

5 combined cycles2070 MWNorandinoAtacama

SING

SIC5 combined cycles1700 MWGasandesPacífico4 gas distribuitors

Metanex

Investment based onArgentinean gas

MMUS$

7 gaspipes 1.800

10 Combined Cycle plants 1.500

Distribution and industrial 2.200

Total 5.500

Ref.: GasAtacama

Gas integration starts between Argentina & Chile

Gas protocol signed in 1991, modified in 1995, allowing sending gas from Argentina to Chile in favorable conditions, based on a non discriminatory principle. Exports started in 1997

Page 11: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

dic-

96

abr-9

7

ago-

97

dic-

97

abr-9

8

ago-

98

dic-

98

abr-9

9

ago-

99

dic-

99

abr-0

0

ago-

00

dic-

00

abr-0

1

ago-

01

dic-

01

abr-0

2

ago-

02

dic-

02

abr-0

3

ago-

03

dic-

03

[MM

m3/

day]

Metanex SIPMetanex YPFMetanex PAPacíficoAtacamaNorandinoGasandes

Argentina gas exports to Chile

Page 12: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

12

Significant impact on Chile’s electric Mg costs

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ene-

85En

e-86

Ene-

87En

e-88

Ene-

89En

e-90

Ene-

91En

e-92

Ene-

93En

e-94

Ene-

95En

e-96

Ene-

97En

e-98

Ene-

99En

e-00

Ene-

01En

e-02

Ene-

03En

e-04

Ene-

05En

e-06

E07

US$/MWh

SIC

12

Page 13: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

13

Page 14: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

14

•2004 crisis starts with gas cuts

Macroeconomic crisis in Argentina

Page 15: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

15

50

100

150

200

250

300

Ene-

85En

e-86

Ene-

87En

e-88

Ene-

89En

e-90

Ene-

91En

e-92

Ene-

93En

e-94

Ene-

95En

e-96

Ene-

97En

e-98

Ene-

99En

e-00

Ene-

01En

e-02

Ene-

03En

e-04

Ene-

05En

e-06

Ene-

07

US$/MWh

SIC

Significant impact on Chile’s electric Mg costs

15

Page 16: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Chile seemed reluctant to further exchanges

16

International agreements proved useless in a critical economic conditionNon discriminatory principle was violatedNot political to cut essential services to the populationSevere impact on Chilean economyEstimated cost of 20 billion US dollars (for more expensive generation)Never to become so dependent

Page 17: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Regasification terminals built at Quintero & Mejillones

Quintero: British Gas (40%), Enap (20%),

Endesa Chile (20%), Metrogas(20%)

In operation from mid 2009 Contracts that start at 6.5

MMm³/day

Mejillones

Quintero

Chile resorts to LNG17

Page 18: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Supply chain for natural gas to Chile

High resultant prices

18

Argentinean gas price was 1.5/MMBtu

Page 19: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

19

Page 20: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

A little bit of history…

• In 1999, as part of Chile‐Argentina gas integration, Chilgener & Termoandes (today AES Gener) decided to export electric energy from Argentina to Chile´s northern system, SING.  This exchange operated until 2005 

20

Page 21: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

A little bit of history…

• In 2013 AES Gener (owner of line) started studies to reactivate the line, but now to transfer electricity from the SING in Chile to the SADI in Argentina

• Argentina had developed its transmission network, but not its generation matrix, so in the last few years its demand has caught up to its generation offer

• In 2015, the government of Chile authorized the export under the principle of “indemnity”

• “Indemnity” implies that operation with exports should not modify the prices at the sending end

21

Page 22: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Operation

• To ensure the “indemnity” of the system, the operator in the Chilean side calculates the dispatch as always

• Generators that were not selected by the dispatch can participate in the export, if they were previously accepted by the line owner (AES Gener)

• AES Gener submits sell offers to the SADI´s system operator, CAMMESA

• The export is triggered if CAMMESA accepts the sell offers for its system, SADI

22

Page 23: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000 SING ‐‐‐> SADISADI ‐‐‐> SING

46.6 GWh exported

[MWh]

Operation• After a period of tests, export started in Feb 2016• As of April, SING & SADI were 462 hrs. interconnected

23

Page 24: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2.200

2.400

2.600

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229 241 253 265 277 289 301 313 325 337 349

[MW] Exports to SADI

Internal consumption SING

[h]

Operation24

• During the first period interconnected (February 12th until February 26th), the SING´s generated energy was 821 GWh and the flow to Argentina reached 37 GWh

Page 25: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Operation

• Up to this point, this may look like a good business for private companies, with no real “system” benefits– Idle generators in Chile get to sell their energy– AES Gener gets to charge for its transmission line– TermoAndes (AES Gener) gets to sell energy into Argentina

25

Page 26: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Operation

• However, the integration has very important “system” byproducts:– CAMMESA gets additional energy, that given  current generation shortages, it is critical to avoid unserved energy  

– SING is also getting a better dynamic response to faults, avoiding unserved energy in the transients (SING has a poor dynamic response, mostly due to the slow response from its coal‐fired plants).

26

Page 27: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

OperationEvent 3962 (Nov. 5th 2015): Fault in Generator Angamos 1 with 263 MW‐ Frequency reached 48.8 Hz 3 levels of load shed‐ Loss of 106.2 MW of load Unserved load 48.6 MWh

Event 4052 (Feb. 22nd, 2016): Fault in Generator Angamos 2 with 253 MW‐ Frequency reached 49.71 Hz No load shed

48,60

48,80

49,00

49,20

49,40

49,60

49,80

50,00

50,20

50,40

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Freq

uency [Hz]

Time [sec]

SING Frequency

Evento N° 4052Evento N° 3962

27

Page 28: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Operation

• The integration has very important “system” byproducts:– SING is getting a smoother frequency while interconnected (SADI is ten times bigger than the SING)   

28

Page 29: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Operation

• The integration has very important “system” byproducts:– BOTH systems know they can ask for assistance in case of a natural disaster or operational exception.

– In July 2, 2014, the interconnection with Argentina was critical to minimize the consequences of a SING system wide blackout.

29

Page 30: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Chile started exporting gas to Argentina

• Chile agreed to export to Argentina some of the LNG gas it imports

• 5.5 million cubic meters daily (to feed Buenos Aires), implying payments of US$ 180 million per year

• Represents about 20% of LNG imports of Argentina  

30

Page 31: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Electric Integration Chile‐Peru

• Chile and Peru are part of SINEA (Andean Community plus Chile), where several interconnection studies have been conducted

• Two interconnections are planned:– Short and thin, between Arica & Tacna (450 MW)– Long and strong, between Crucero & Montavo (1000 MW).

• Integration between Chile & Peru has shown to be more challenging due to geopolitical issues

31

Page 32: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

32

Shale gas resources in Argentina

Enormous resources anticipate future important energy exchanges

801.5 trillion cubit feet (tcf)

Chile has 48.5 tcfUS has 622.5 tcf

Page 33: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Index• Gas resources in South America• Description of Chilean power market• Gas integration between Chile and Argentina• Gas disintegration• Trying again to integrate• Conclusions & final remarks

33

Page 34: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Conclusions & final remarks• Regional energy integration provides ample advantages, both 

economical and technical• However, geopolitical conflicts are still an issue that limits 

integration (Chile‐Bolivia, Chile‐Peru, Peru‐Ecuador)• Although the Chile‐Argentina energy integration seemed 

dead, integration advantages are stronger and are driving the market 

• Merchant type investors are looking for opportunities• New government initiatives are finding opportunities for 

exchanges, with private investors involved

34

Page 35: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Conclusions & final remarks• Regulatory harmonization is an issue that needs 

consideration, particularly with existence of non market based schemes 

• The principle of “indemnity” and/or subsidies work against market forces

• Probably energy integration will be volume bounded, not to create critical dependences

• The energy integration between countries goes beyond who sells to whom.  There is always much more to win for all parties involved.

35

Page 36: Past, present and future of the electricity and gas ...hrudnick.sitios.ing.uc.cl/paperspdf/RudnickSilva2016.pdf · Chile facts Population (2014) 17 ,762, 964 GDP(PPP) per capita (2014)

Past, present and future of the electricity and gas integration between 

Chile and Argentina Hugh Rudnick & Carlos Silva 

Boston, July 2016


Recommended