Paths to Commercialization of Cislunar Space

International Lunar ConferenceToronto, Canada

Wendell Mendell NASA JSC

September 20, 2005

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DISCLAIMERDISCLAIMER

These charts represent the thoughts and analysis of Wendell Mendell on or about September, 2005, and do not represent NASA policy or NASA planning in any way.The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice at the whim of the author.

These charts represent the thoughts and analysis of Wendell Mendell on or about September, 2005, and do not represent NASA policy or NASA planning in any way.The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice at the whim of the author.

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The Vision for Space Exploration

Implement a sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond

Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations;

Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructures both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and

Promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests.

THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL OF THIS VISION IS TO ADVANCE U.S. SCIENTIFIC, SECURITY, AND ECONOMIC INTEREST THROUGH A ROBUST

SPACE EXPLORATION PROGRAM

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NASA TRANSFORMATION(Griffin)

• All senior administrators have been replaced.

• Field Center Directors will report to Griffin via a new Associate Administrator and no longer report to the Mission Directorates.

• The transportation architecture & the lunar exploration architecture, as decided by a small, hand-picked group of advisors, was announced 19 September.

– The transportation system will include a heavy-lift vehicle derived from Space Shuttle main engine technology.

– A crew transport vehicle will be based on Shuttle solid rocket boosters.

• The Crew Exploration Vehicle will first fly in 2010 rather than 2014, requiring delay or cancellation of other activities to make funding available in the near term.

– Some future science (SMD) missions delayed.

– The Exploration Science Research & Technology program severely cut back.

• Generally, studies have been replaced by decisions and action.

• The resetting of priorities and shifting of elements to earlier times means that theNASA budget in the near (and medium) term is inadequate to support the Vision if NASA conducts business as usual [Shank].

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Mars

Outer Moons

ExtrasolarPlanets

Moon

Identify KeyTargets

Identify KeyTargets

RoboticTrailblazers

RoboticTrailblazers

Human MissionsTo Moon

Human MissionsTo Moon

GoBeyond

GoBeyond

MarsRovers

ReconOrbiter

PhoenixLander

MobileLab

Past and PresentWater and Life;

Testbeds and ResourcesMarsScout

MarsTestbed

MarsTestbed

SampleReturn

MarsScout

MarsTestbed

FieldLab

Mars Human Landings*

MarsScout

BuildingBlocks

LunarOrbiter

Robotic Testbed Missions

Human Landings*

CassiniSaturnArrival

CassiniTitan

Landing

JupiterIcy Moons

Orbiter

Underground Oceans, Biological Chemistry,

and Life

Earth-Like Planetsand Life

Exploration Testbeds,Resources, and

Solar System History

Spitzer SpaceTelescope

KeplerMission

Space Interferometry Mission

Terrestrial PlanetFinder

Life Finder

MarsTestbed

Deep Space TelescopeDeployment/Upgrades

RoboticLanding

Station Assembly Complete Human Research Complete

CEV OperationalCEV Test Flights

Orbital Tech Demos

Optical Comm Demo Nuclear Power / Propulsion Demo

KeyPlanned Robotic Mission

Potential Robotic Mission/Decision*

Robotic Operations

Planned Human Mission

Potential Human Mission/Decision*

Human Operations

Mars Robotic Missions

Dawn AsteroidOrbiter

Begin Exploration Systems/Heavy Lift Decisions

PlanetImager

MESSENGERMercury Orbiter

New HorizonsPluto Flyby

StardustComet Return

Deep ImpactComet Mission

Webb SpaceTelescope

Space Shuttle RetirementComm’l. and/or Foreign Cargo

Soyuz and/or CEV

Station Transition

Lunar Exploration Systems

Mars and BeyondExploration Systems

202020202010201020002000

* Earliest estimated date

Hubble SpaceTelescope

NOTE: All missions indicate launch dates

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So, What About the Money?

• I see two kinds of money problems:– Near term: the annual budget is insufficient to meet the

advanced schedule while sustaining all current activities.– Far term: as in-space infrastructure is created, operating

costs will consume more and more of the annual budget.

• I see four sources for enhanced Exploration funding:– Traditional: Ask for a bigger budget ☺– Conservational: Cut expenses outside of Exploration– Intrapreneurial: Manage innovatively (nontraditional practices)– Collaborative: Attract independent infrastructure investment

The first is highly unlikely;the second is insufficient;

the third is promising but difficult;the fourth is currently meaningless.

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A Thing in Space must have…

• …some way of getting to its destination• …resources to maintain its operational state

– Power – Fuel– Consumables (e.g., life support)

• …some kind of communication system• …structure and systems to deal with the external environment

– Pressure – Temperature – Radiation– Hypervelocity impact, meteoroid or man-made in Earth orbit– Reactive ions, particularly in LEO– Fine dust, on a planetary surface

• …functionality reflecting its purpose– Control, autonomous or remote– Mobility, on a surface or in space (e.g., station-keeping)– Habitable qualities if humans are on site

The Apollo Lunar Laser Retroreflectors are an example of minimalist, passive packages requiring only transportation to their destination (and precise emplacement).

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Space Exploration: The Ideal End State

• Buy round-trip tickets for the crew to their destination• Contract logistics to ship equipment and supplies.• Lease living quarters and facilities• Subscribe to utilities

– Power– Communication

• Rent local transportation

In other words, buy everything on the previous chart as a service!

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NASA and the Private Sector

• The systems needed to carry out the Vision do not exist in either the commercial or government sector.

• Consequently, NASA cannot literally buy COTS services to execute its mission.

• For new systems requiring advanced and untested technology that will be used for a single purpose, NASA determines the design and contracts its fabrication.– The cost and risk of such systems cannot be funded by

private investors.– This modus operandi creates a parasitic contractor sector

but not a true entrepreneurial commercial capability.– Some advocate that NASA should fund developmental work

outside the traditional prime contractor relationship to foster an entrepreneurial economic sector.

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Griffin on the Dilemma

I am literally besieged by entrepreneurs who insist that if I just dump the money into their area we'll get results. OK - maybe so. But I have to deal with the fact that if I gamble money in that direction - and product is not delivered - then public moneyhas been spent on something which didn't come true. [Moreover] it was money that could have been spent on a higher odds proposition - and I have to account for why I did that.

So, the task in front of me as a manager of our civil space program is how to recognize and deal with the fact that publicly funded space programs have goals and objectives which have to be achieved. The NASA Administrator, the Director of the NRO, Secretary of the Air Force - all the folks who have high level budgeting and strategic authority as to where the money goes - have goals and objectives that have to be met. And the meeting of those goals cannot be treated as a lottery -where we'll just spread money around and let a thousand flowers bloom.

But at the same time we, as stewards of public money, have to recognize that a way needs to be found to engage the engine of competition. One measure of our success in allocating public dollars is using those dollars to help create the kind of economy that made America great - and it has largely been lacking in the aerospace industry.

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Griffin’s Approach

So it is a real dilemma - it is a real dichotomy: how do we engage competition and position ourselves to take advantage of the successes and accept the failures which inevitably occur in thatenvironment while, at the same time, meeting the goals and objectives that we have as managers?

What I've come to, after considerable thinking (with some discussion and modifications to come) - for NASA: the best way to do that is to utilize the market that is offered by the International Space Station and its requirements to supply crew and cargo as the years unfold. For the next few years, we are going to be completing the assembly of the space station and supplying cargoto it using the space shuttle. That is in accordance with the President' s policy directions initiated on January 14, 2004, in his major speech and following up with the space transportation policy. So for the next few years that is what we are going to be doing.

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Commercial Opportunities and ISS

• Opportunities for commercial technology development aboardISS, always difficult due to bureaucratic constraints, is further hampered by transportation issues, particularly lack of down mass capability.

• Griffin appears willing to contract cargo delivery to ISS, particularly after retirement of the Shuttle.

• He has indicated willingness to consider crew transport oncecommercial launches demonstrate appropriate safety criteria.

• Meanwhile, Russians continue to market tourism to ISS.• What opportunities may arise in future programs, given NASA’s

new mandate?• Will NASA be forced to change its mode of interaction with the

commercial sector?

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Let’s go back to The Ideal End State

• Buy round-trip tickets for the crew to their destination• Contract logistics to ship equipment and supplies.• Lease living quarters and facilities• Subscribe to utilities

– Power– Communication

• Rent local transportation

1. Who is selling these services?2. What is the source of their income when NASA is not the

customer?3. How did this infrastructure arise?

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Answering the Three Questions

If I was smart, I would say“I don’t know,”

and thank your for your time.

However, I will try to answer Question #1 by speculating on Question #3, assuming Question #2 has an answer because other people say so.

I will assume that the extraterrestrial component of the Earth-Moon system has latent wealth, meaning that appropriate capitalization in space will create the ability to market profitably goods and services.I leave open the question whether the future economy will be robust enough to fully amortize the capitalization or whether the initial investment must be a government subsidy.

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Economic Development of Cislunar Space

• What Does it Mean?– The creation of economic activity in space, including the

production and selling of goods and services.

• Is it important to the Nation?– All production of wealth contributes to economic security.

Successful creation of wealth in space is particularly challenging technologically and would place any nation in a uniquely competitive posture.

• Is it part of the Vision for Space Exploration?– The policy requires NASA to “promote” commercial interests and

emphasizes development of space resources, presumably for eventual economic exploitation.

• Is it part of NASA’s strategy?

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Characteristics of an Economy(I’m making this up)

• An Economy has two basic layers:– A functional layer wherein occurs all the production and

consumption– A control layer including a legal system, regulatory authority, and

taxation (including subsidies)

• Money is the life blood, but its worth is determined by the total wealth of the economy.– Money is useless without anything to buy– Selling is useless if no one has money

• The great lesson of the last two centuries:– An economy dominated by the control function will stagnate– Pure laissez-faire leads to wealth distortion and structural instability– A free market with appropriate control creates new wealth

• A traditional NASA program creating cislunar infrastructure and functionality is a form of control economy and will never create new wealth (and is not intended to do so)

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To Create an Economy in Cislunar Space…

• Functions– …sell goods and services to the Earth ☺– …sell goods & services to Things in Space

• LEO spacecraft• GEO spacecraft• Military spacecraft (wherever they are)• NASA Vision for Space Exploration*

– *New customer

• Controls– …use current international law as a starting point– …create new legal regimes to enable free market structures– …create new international Authorities to

• Provide a predictable regulatory environment• Provide a mechanism for investment

– …provide tax incentives through the launching nations

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Models of Cislunar Governance & Finance

• INTERLUNE (Joyner and Schmitt, 1985)– Analogous to INTELSAT

• Assembly of Parties• Board of Governors• Board of Users and Investors• Director’s Office

– INTELSAT was formed to solve the problem of orderly development of internationaltelecommunications, a market that was forming anyway.

• MetaNation (O’Donnell, 1994)– Governance entity created by treaty with powers to regulate and finance space

development– Raise funds through issuance of bonds analogous regulatory authorities in U.S., e.g.,

Tennessee Valley Authority, port authorities– Would require establishment of international legal regime in space defining intellectual

and property rights as well as regulations for safety, environment, liability, etc.

• The Olympic Games– Attract investment by selling exclusive rights to certain providers of infrastructure– Would market services to NASA and other customers– Governance authority by international agreement

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Conclusions

• The Vision for Space Exploration requires infrastructure services such as transportation, energy, communication, and surface operations.

• Any true commercial provider of those services must serve a customer base beyond NASA, a base that does not now exist.

• Some believe a set of services, once established, will attract other customers.

– “Build it and they will come.” This is a statement of faith.

– NASA will build a set of such services for its own purposes but does not have the administrative and financial tools to transform the infrastructure into commercial offerings.

• In addition, such an approach does not address the NASA budget problem.

• Even if a business model could be constructed, no investment will occur without a well-defined, business-friendly legal and regulatory environment.

• Creation of a space development regulatory regime must be done within the international community, and such processes are slow.

Traditional ‘Resources’: – Water, atmospheric constituents, volatiles, solar wind volatiles, minerals, metals, etc.

Energy– Permanent/Near-Permanent Sunlight

• Stable thermal control & power/energy generation and storage– Permanent/Near-Permanent Darkness

• Cold sink for cryo fluid storage & scientific instruments

Environment– Vacuum/Dryness– Micro/Reduced Gravity– High Thermal Gradients

Location– Stable Locations/’Real Estate’:

• Earth viewing, sun viewing, space viewing, staging locations– Isolation from Earth

• Electromagnetic noise, hazardous testing & development activities (nuclear, biological, etc.), extraterrestrial sample curation & analysis, storage of vital information, etc.

What are Space Resources?What are Space Resources?

The purpose of In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is to harness & utilize these resources to create products & services which enable and significantly reduce

the mass, cost, & risk of near and long-term space exploration

Uses of Space Resources for Robotic & Human Exploration

Mission Consumable ProductionPropellants for Lander/Ascent Vehicles, Surface Hoppers, & Aerial VehiclesFuel cell reagents for mobile (rovers, EVA) & stationary backup powerLife support consumables (oxygen, water, buffer gases)Gases for science equipment and drillingBio-support products (soil, fertilizers, etc.)Feedstock for in-situ manufacturing & surface construction

Manufacturing w/ Space ResourcesSpare parts manufacturingLocally integrated systems & components (especially for increasing resource processing capabilities)High-mass, simple items (chairs, tables, replaceable structure panels, wall units, wires, extruded pipes/structural members, etc.)

Surface ConstructionRadiation shielding for habitat & nuclear reactors from in-situ resources or products(Berms, bricks, plates, water, hydrocarbons, etc.)Landing pad clearance, site preparation, roads, etc.Shielding from micro-meteoroid and landing/ascent plume debrisHabitat and equipment protection

Space Utilities & PowerStorage & distribution of mission consumablesThermal energy storage & useSolar energy (PV, concentrators, rectennas)Chemical energy (fuel cells, combustion, catalytic reactors, etc.)

Benefits of ISRU: Critical for Affordable, Flexible, & Sustainable Exploration

Risk Reduction & Flexibility

Expands HumanPresence

Cost ReductionMass Reduction

Enables Space Commercialization

Space Resource Utilization

• Reduces number and size of Earth launch vehicles

• Allows reuse of transportation assets

• Minimizes DDT&E cost

• Increase Surface Mobility & extends missions

• Habitat & infrastructure construction

• Propellants, life support, power, etc.

• Substitutes sustainable infrastructure cargo for propellant & consumable mass

• Develops material handling and processing technologies

• Provides infrastructure to support space commercialization

• Propellant/consumable depots at Earth-Moon L1 & Surface for Human exploration & commercial activities

Propellant Production• Reduces Earth to orbit

mass by 20 to 45% for Mars missions

• 3.5:1 to 4:1 mass savings leverage from Moon/Mars surface back to Low Earth Orbit

• Number of launches & mission operations reduced

• Reduces dependence on Earth

• Use of common hardware & mission consumables enables increased flexibility

• In-situ fabrication of spare parts enables sustainability and self-sufficiency

• ISRU can provide dissimilar redundancy

• Radiation & Plume Shielding

In-Situ Resource Utilization Elements

In-Situ Resource Extraction & Transport

Resource Processing

Surface Manufacturing w/ Space Resources

Surface Construction

Surface ISRU Product and Consumable Storage & Distribution

Involves multi-step thermal, chemical, and electrical processing of extracted resources into products with immediate use or as feedstock

Involves assessment of resources, and extraction, excavation, and delivery of resources in low and micro-g environments, including the simple extraction and separation of resources from bulk resources

Involves production of replacement parts, complex products, machines, and integrated systems from one or more processed resources

Involves processes and operations for constructing elements & infrastructure on planetary surfaces using materials produced from planetary resources

Involves the ability to efficiently store and transfer the resource processing reagents and products, including resource recovery and system health approaches.

Questions for Cislunar Commercialization

Where do markets exist?– Earth

– Earth orbit

– NASA (exploration activities)– ?

Where might markets be created?

– Interplanetary transportation systems

– Planetary communication systems

– Planetary surface habitation• Life support• Power• Construction and assembly• Mobility• Robotics• Tools and equipment

What are appropriate technologies for production of goods and services in space?

What are their technology readiness levels?Who will invest in appropriate technology development?Are there any goods and serviceswith potential return on investment to attract investment outside of government?

Will a policy environment be set up to encourage and nurture private investment?

Technology and Teleology

NASA has a mandate for exploration and scientific discovery across the solar system.

NASA has a problem in that its budget will never permit investment for more than a minimal functionality.

To maintain its budget, NASA must demonstrate relevance to national goals with a sustained program.

Space entrepreneurs desire to create and profit from a market economy off the Earth.Technological infrastructure for such an economy is in a primitive stage of development and requires high-risk investment.

To create the markets, a sustained presence in space is necessary.

Regulatory and legal constraints are critical.

• National space policy has common goals with the space entrepreneurial goals.• NASA would be wise to choose technology investments that benefit the

commercial community while furthering Agency goals.• Producing a strategic plan that will energize this potential synergy probably

requires policy development at the political level because NASA faces a severe challenge in meeting the goals of the Vision at even a minimal level.