Pathways of future emissions & climate changeFor the Australian Adaptation Practitioner

Malte Meinshausen, 26th June 2012The University of Melbourne & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Thanks to Urs Beyerle, T. Corti, J. Arblaster, D. Karoly, J. Rogelj, K. Frieler, L. Warzawski.

R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen

International Emission Targets for Australia:5% 2020 Pledge seems slow start for reaching 2050.

High 2020 Pledge of -25% below 2000 – roughly in line with -80% by 2050

Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data.

Australia’s domestic mitigation important.Australia’s coal associated with big emissions overseas.

CO2 Emissions due to the overseas burning of coal

from a single new Australian coal mine

(1.31 GtCO2 over its 30 year lifetime; Wandoan XSTRATA, Queensland)

Own calculations based on PRIMAP and UNFCCC data. For Wandoan case, see more information at: http://www.envlaw.com.au/wandoan.html

R. Stoeckli, The Blue Marble. Adapted by M. Meinshausen

Indicative 2020 Target for global emissions: 44 ±2GtCO2eq, if we

want to stay below 2°C.

The new “SRES” scenarios for climate model

intercomparisons: The Representative Concentration

Pathways (RCPs).

Cf. Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

Global Peaking of Emissions before 2020 essential.

See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

“Adaptation challenge” due to negative emission necessity: How can large biomass & CCS

implementation take place without endangering food

production, ecosystems etc?

See Meinshausen et al., Climatic Change, 2011, doi: DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z and Rogelj et al., Nature Climate Change, 2011, doi: DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1258

International goal: Keeping warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels (with likely chance). In the long-term, this target is slightly more stringent

than 450ppm CO2eq.

International UNFCCC language on 2C target: “[…] reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC above preindustrial levels […]”Cancún Agreements (2010), Decision 1/CP.16, para I.4

“Noting with grave concern the significant gap between […] pledges […] and […] pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 ºC or 1.5 ºC above pre-industrial levels”Durban Platform (2011), Decision 1/CP.17, preamble

Upper inlet: Hansen et al. PNAS, submitted, Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature

Context: +2°C warming last time maybe 3 to 5 Million

years ago.

Morice et al. JGR, 2012, doi:10.1029/2011JD017187

Multi-model historical experiments with climate

models (AOGCMs and ESMs) in the latest/ongoing

intercomparison project “CMIP5”: Unprecedented

amounts of data.

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

Following the highest future emission scenario: Crossing

global warming of +2°C by 2040, +5°C by 2100...

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

... and +12°C by 2200 ?!

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

RCP4.5 heading for +2.5 to +3°C in long-

term.

Own analysis. CMIP5 data analysed, as available as of 20 th June 2012. Thanks to J. Arblaster, J. Sedlacek, U. Beyerle, T. Corti, ETH Zurich

RCP3-PD/2.6 staying below 2°C with likely

chance.

Fig. 3 in Frieler, Meinshausen et al. 2012, J. Clim, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00199.1

Regional Change of precipitation & temperature

important for impacts & adaptation -> high correlation

with global-mean temperatures.

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Nature, 16 Feb 2012

Background Slides

For discussion.

Trend preserving bias correctionRCP8.5 Daily temperatures for July,

Amazon region

Bias corrected

Original data from HadGEM2

Source: Frieler et al. ISI-MIP, 2012

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(Australia Government Figure with red added by Meinshausen 2011, Wandoan Court Case Material)