Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Pay TV and OTT video in
emerging Asia–Pacific:
trends and forecasts 2020–
2025
Martin Scott, Alex Boisot and Qingyi Liang
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT
This report provides:
▪ forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services,
the number of premium OTT video users, their retail revenue
(spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
▪ forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and
digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite (DTH) and operator OTT;1
operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT
video service: linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental),
TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
▪ forecasts for eight individual countries and emerging Asia–
Pacific (EMAP) as a whole, plus in-depth coverage for four
countries.
2
About this report
1 The full definition of the term ‘Operator OTT’ is articulated in the appendix at the end of this report. In short, this term refers to
OTT video services offered by telecoms operators and also by pay-TV providers that have previously provided traditional pay-TV
services.
▪ Product and strategy managers within pay-TV providers and operators
who require market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an
overview of the key trends that are affecting the market.
▪ Business development managers within vendors of video solutions who
need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products and
services.
▪ Financial analysts who need to understand the dynamics and the size of
the pay-TV market and its interaction with OTT video services.
GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE
Region modelled:
▪ Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)
Countries modelled individually
(additional in-depth coverage is
provided for those in bold):
▪ China
▪ India
▪ Indonesia
▪ Malaysia
▪ Myanmar
▪ Thailand
▪ Philippines
▪ Vietnam
KEY METRICS
▪ Pay-TV households and
connections
▪ OTT video users
▪ Retail revenue (spend)
▪ ASPU
Pay TV is split by the following
access technologies:
▪ cable (analogue and digital,
CATV)
▪ IPTV
▪ pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
▪ satellite (DTH)
▪ operator OTT1
▪ third-party (non-operator) OTT
OTT video is split as follows:
▪ linear – channels (paid-for and
free)
▪ linear – events
▪ TVoD – (rental and ownership)
▪ SVoD (paid-for and free)
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
The (relatively light) impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TV
and video viewing behaviour will continue into 2021.
The COVID-19 pandemic affected consumer behaviour differently
in each country in the region. However, the overall impact on the
TV and video market was much weaker than that in other regions.
Most governments introduced a community quarantine or
movement control order in early 2020, which led to an increase in
the consumption of TV and video content.
Disruption to sports coverage has resulted in a fall in linear
content revenue (both traditional and OTT).
Sports content is a key driver of consumers’ spending on linear
content. The disruption to international league games was
significant in 2Q 2020 and local sports leagues were still
disrupted at the time of writing. This disruption led to a slight
decline in traditional pay-TV and OTT linear channel revenue in
2020, but the impact was particularly felt among ‘linear event’
services that offer pay-per-view sports events, many of which were
rescheduled or cancelled.
VoD viewership, and therefore spend, increased in 2020.
People spent more time at home in 2020 and, accordingly, the
consumption of both TVoD rentals and SVoD increased.1 The use
of free trials surged, and Netflix stopped offering them in some
countries to prevent abuse.
Figure 4: Pay-TV and OTT retail revenue by service, showing the
effect of COVID-19 (logarithmic scale), EMAP, 2018–20212
9
COVID-19: a slight increase in on-demand viewership benefitted OTT video players;
disruptions to sports broadcasts affected traditional pay-TV and linear OTT revenue
1 For further information, see Analysys Mason’s Connected Consumer Survey 2020: TV and video services in emerging Asia–
Pacific.2 The arrow denotes the change in the value due to COVID-19.
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Figure 21: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU,
Indonesia, 2018–2025
Figure 22: Number of users by service type, Indonesia, 2018–
2025
Indonesia: third-party OTT providers will be able to operate more independently,
thereby driving intensifying competition in the segment
21
Third-party OTT service providers have historically had to rely on
deals with telecoms operators to gain access to the Indonesian
market. Services from international heavyweights such as Netflix
and HBO GO are not available on a standalone basis. These
dynamics appear to have shifted in 2020, and we consequently
anticipate much stronger competition during our forecast period.
HBO GO became available as a standalone service in February
2020 and Netflix was unblocked by Telkomsel in July 2020.
Disney+ Hotstar entered the market in September 2020; it
launched at a lower price point than Netflix and rapidly gained
millions of (paying) users, thereby depressing ASPU. This will put
pressure on smaller players, some of whom will be forced out of
the market.
OTT VIDEO MARKET KPIs 2025
€
PER MONTH
8.87.5
MILLION
$
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
ContentsExecutive summary
Regional trends
Country-level trends
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Alex Boisot (Analyst) is a member of the Regional Markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market
Matrix, European Country Reports, European Core Forecasts, Middle East and Africa and Video, Gaming and Entertainment research
programmes. Alex holds a BA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of East Anglia. He conducted research on the impact of
telecoms technologies on modern societies during his studies, writing his dissertation on e-government and e-democracy. He has also worked
on the development of a mobile game aiming to teach users the basic principles of physics.
About the authors
29
Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) heads Analysys Mason's research initiatives related to media and TV. He manages the Video, Gaming and
Entertainment research programme. Martin has held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 15 years, including heading the
company's Consumer Services, Data and Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer Survey and
Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His primary areas of specialisation include telecoms TV strategy, OTT video and media,
consumer behaviour, customer satisfaction and consumer-facing marketing strategy. He also specialises in statistics, surveys and the analysis
of primary research. He has a Master's degree in Mathematics from Oxford University.
Qingyi Liang (Research Analyst) is a member of the Data Team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms Market Matrix, European
Country Reports and Asia–Pacific programmes. Qingyi has a MSc in Biomedical Sciences, and a PhD in Epigenetics and Cancer Biology from
University College London.
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Consulting
We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms
industry:
▪ communications and digital service providers, vendors,
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infrastructure funds, governments, regulators, broadcasters
and service and content providers
Our sector specialists understand the distinct local challenges
facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges
and opportunities new technology brings.
Research
Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the different
services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
We offer detailed insight into the software, infrastructure and
technology delivering those services.
Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct
access to analysts.
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Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Research from Analysys Mason
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Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
Consulting from Analysys Mason
32
Pay TV and OTT video in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2020–2025
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MARCH 2021