PDI Enrollment Study April 2007

8/10/2019 PDI Enrollment Study April 2007

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SCHOOL ENROLLMENTPROJECTIONS FOR

BRUNSWICK FINAL REPORT

2006-07

Prepared for:

The Brunswick School Department

Prepared by:

Planning Decisions, Inc.P.O. Box 2414

South Portland, ME 04116-2414

April 2007


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Table of Contents

PageEXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

I. Introduction & Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

II. Review of Previous Enrollment Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

A. Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13B. Grade Group Projections Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14C. Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15D. Grade-to-Grade Survival Ratios.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16E. Net Elementary Migration (Grades 1-6). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18F. Summary of Previous Enrollment Projections Comparison. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

III. Enrollment of Brunswick Resident Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

A. Impact of NASB Closing on School Enrollment in Brunswick.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22B. New Brunswick Student In-Migration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

IV. First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

A. Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27B. Factors Influencing Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28C. Recent Resident Birth Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29D. Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

V. Elementary School Enrollment (K-5). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

A. 2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

VI. Middle School Enrollment (6-8). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

A. 2006-07 Best Fit Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38


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VII. High School Enrollment (9-12). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

A. Brunswick Resident Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40B. Durham Choice Tuition Student Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43C. Enrollment of All Students at the Brunswick High School. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

VIII. Assessment of Economic Conditions, Population Trends, and Residential Development and Their Relation to School Enrollment. . . . . . . . . 48

A. Economic Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48B. Population Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52C. Residential Development Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54D. Relationship of Residential Development to School Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59E. Summary and Recommendations Regarding Economic Conditions, Population Trends, and Residential Development. . . . . . . . . . . . 63

IX. Summary of Enrollment Projections for School Planning Purposes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

A. 2006-07 Best Fit Projections of All Brunswick Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65C. 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Projections of All Brunswick Residents. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66D. 2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Enrollment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67E. 2006-07 Best Fit Project ions of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68F. 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69G. 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Projections of All Brunswick Residents and Durham Choice Tuition Students. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

APPENDIX: Grade by Grade Historical and Projected Enrollment, and Grade Group Summaries


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Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007 Page 1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

In completing the updated enrollment projections for Brunswick, the major findings of this study are as follows:

Planning Decisions has provided the Brunswick School Department with three sets of enrollment projections for the next ten years. The first setof projections is based solely on historical resident births trends and historical enrollment trends in Brunswick, this set of projections is called the

2006-07 best fit model . The 2006-07 best fit model does not take into account the closure of Naval Air Station Brunswick (NASB) closing.The second set of projections called the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model accounts for a rapid out-migration of personnel from NASBwhich begins to impact the Brunswick Schools starting in 2007-08 and has a full impact on school enrollment before the beginning of the 2012-13school year. This model also takes into account a corresponding increase in enrollment from new residents moving into Brunswick as the military

personnel leave. The third set of projections called the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 accounts for a slower out-migration of personnelfrom NASB which begins to impact the Brunswick School Department in 2008-09 and has a full impact on school enrollment before the beginningof the 2013-14 school year. This model also takes into account a corresponding increase in enrollment from new residents moving into Brunswick as the military personnel leave.

Both models estimate by 2016-17 enrollment in Brunswick will eventually rebound to become similar to the best fit model as military personnellost during the closure of NASB are replaced by new Brunswick residents buying or renting housing units currently occupied by military personnel.However, since many variables could potentially impact enrollment but currently cannot be measured, Planning Decisions has supplied each of the three models within ranges of plus and minus 10% to account for fluctuations in school enrollment.

In addition, when planning for school facilities, Planning Decisions strongly recommends against using the low range of the supplied enrollment projections to assess future school capacity needs. This recommendation is made because although enrollment in Brunswick will likely declineduring certain phases of NASB closure with the low ranges being useful for short-term planning, Planning Decisions does believe Brunswicksschool population will NOT remain at the low enrollment levels for the long-term. In fact, Planning Decisions believes future school enrollmentin Brunswick will eventually come in line with the historical enrollment figures in Brunswick, and be more similar to the 2006-07 best fit modelfollowing the full closure of NASB and redevelopment of NASB property.

Planning Decisions recommends that the Brunswick School Department continue to monitor school enrollment trends on a year-by-year basis todetermine the eventual impacts of NASB closing on school enrollment, and to monitor the sale of and redevelopment of NASB.

Planning Decisions suggests the Brunswick School Department monitor the military dependent out-migration by staying in touch with their families, and by asking the military dependent families when they may choose to leave, and if they could keep the school informed of their departure plans.


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Brunswick Enrollment Report FINAL 2006-07 07-801 4-3-2007.wpd - April 2007Page 2

! A review of the previously completed enrollment projections compared with actual 2006-07 enrollment indicated the following:

Overall, the 2003-04 best fit projections, underestimated total K-12 enrollment for 2006-07, underestimating total K-12 enrollment in2006-07 by about 4%. Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, or overestimated the firstgrade by 8 students, it appears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is following historical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slightoverestimation of the 2006-07 first grade enrollment by 8 students were taken into account when updating the enrollment projections, aswas the underestimation of total K-12 enrollment.

Based on this analysis, although grades 1-2 experienced a high level of in-migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07, Planning Decisionsfound nothing to suggest that migration trends are changing between these grade levels, or at the other grade levels. Regardless, PlanningDecisions recommends that the Brunswick School Department keep an eye on future grade-to-grade migration, specifically at grades 1-2for potential changes migration trends.

Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an out-migration of about 17 students in grades 1-6, while an in-migrationof 29 students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisions completed the 2003-04 best fit model, a decline inthe level of out-migrat ion with some slight in-migration was occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementarymigration may be changing to an average in or out-migration of only a few students compared with the larger out-migrations seen

previously. In addition, the recent change in elementary migration trends was taken into account when updating the enrollment projections.


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! A review of residential development trends in Brunswick suggests the following:

Over the last three years (2004 to 2006), residential growth in Brunswick, or 87 new housing units annually, has been at lower levelscompared with the last five years (2002 to 2006), or 96 new housing units annually, and the last ten years (1997 to 2006) or 81 new housingunits annually.

Based this analysis, Planning Decisions estimates future residential development will fluctuate year-to-year, with some years experiencinghigher levels of development compared with other years, and will likely fall somewhere between 85 and 95 new housing units addedannually, and will likely average around 90 housing units added annually.

The 2006-07 best fit model adequately accounted for the impact of residential development on preschool migration, and based on recenttrends, residential development does not have a correlating impact on elementary migration trends. Therefore, a second model based onresidential development trends was not created.

Planning Decisions strongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department do the following over the next ten years:

Keep a close eye on school enrollment trends, local housing unit development, and housing stock turnover trends during the closing of NASB.

Keep track of the home addresses of both military dependent students leaving the school system and the newly enrolled resident studentsin Brunswick to determine if those military dependent students are being replaced by new civilian students, and/or if more new civilianstudents are replacing those military students lost.

Continually re-evaluate school enrollment trends each year during the closing of NASB to determine changes in school enrollment inBrunswick during the closing process.

In addition, since the future for Brunswick regarding the redevelopment of NASB still remains uncertain, Planning Decisions providedschool enrollment trends within ranges of plus and minus 10% to account for fluctuations in enrollment that are likely to occur during the closing process.

Regardless, since different scenarios may develop over the next five to ten years during the closing of NASB, Planning Decisionsstrongly recommends that the Brunswick School Department closely monitor future residential growth and population changes withinthe Town, and continues to monitor school enrollment trends on a yearly basis.


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! Factors Influencing Entering Class Size (First Grade):

Resident Birth Trends:

Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period (1990-91 to 1999-00), declined on average. The average number of births over the last five years of the period, (1995-96 to 1999-00), was 245 births, which is lower than the average for the first five yearsof the period (1990-91 to 1994-95), or 267 births. The decline in resident births between 1995-96 and 1999-00 has placed downward

pressure on entering first grade class sizes over the last five years. The most recent five-year period (2001-02 to 2005-06) averaged 235 births, while the previous five-year period (1996-97 to 2000-01) had a similar average of births at 237 births. However, over the last threeyears (2003-04 to 2005-06) the average of births to Brunswick residents was higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 242

births. The increase in resident births is the result of two years 2004-05 and 2005-06, experiencing unusually high level of births. Inaddition, while resident births have increased on average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade classsizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Therefore, the Brunswick School Department should keep an eye on year-to-year resident birth trends.Based on the last three-year trends, resident births should continue to average about 242 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuationswill continue to occur.

Planning Decisions obtained data on the number of Brunswick residents births to military personnel. This data was compiled frominformation parents provided when filing out information to obtain a birth certificate. While the data was collected through 2005, theMaine Department of Human Services no longer requires hospitals to collect the information and no longer codes the birth data they receiveto include parent occupation or employer. In addition, while the birth data Planning Decisions uses to project school enrollment is basedon October 15 through October 14 of a year, the military dependent resident birth data is based on a calendar year. While this is anth th

imperfect date correlation, it will provide Planning Decisions with a reasonable estimate of how many of Brunswick resident births aremilitary dependents.

Between 1996 and 2005, the number of military dependent births in Brunswick has, on average, remained fairly stable. Over the ten-year period of 1996 and 2005, military dependent births in Brunswick averaged 75 births annually, ranging between 63 and 88 births. The

most recent five-year period (2001 to 2005) averaged 75 births, while the previous five-year period (1996 to 2000) also averaged 75 births.However, over the last three years (2003 to 2005) the average of births to military dependents in Brunswick was slightly higher than themost recent five-year average, averaging 78 births. The increase in resident births is the result of one year 2005, experiencing an unusuallyhigh level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year,causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Planning Decisions will assume when Naval Air Station Brunswick closes,resident births should decline by about 75 births annually, or Brunswick resident births should average around 160 births annually. Thisestimate does not take into consideration changes in the population due to new families moving into the housing formerly occupied by the NASB personnel.


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! 2006-07 Best Fit Projections for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model is based on average resident birth levels in Brunswick between 2003-04 and 2005-06, and on acontinuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged children similar to the level occurring over the last three years. This model is based onhistorical resident birth and enrollment trends and does not take into account a reduction in enrollment from closing Naval Air Station

Brunswick or corresponding enrollment increases from new residents moving into Brunswick.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 Best Fit Model

First Grade Class Size:

Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projects first gradeenrollment of all Brunswick residents will experience yearly swingscorresponding with swings in resident births, with enrollment ranging

between 210 and 249 students through 2016-17. In addition, Brunswick should experience an average first grade enrollment of 226 students over the next ten years.

Grade Group Enrollment:

Grades K-5 enrollment of Brunswick students wil l decline from the currentenrollment of 1,399 students, ranging between 1,297 and 1,392 studentsthrough 2016-17.

Grades 6-8 enrollment of Brunswick students will remain similar to thecurrent enrollment of 714 students, ranging between 685 and 746 studentsthrough 2012-13. Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline to range

between 636 and 662 students through 2016-17.

Grades 9-12 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from the currentenrollment of 1,034 students, to reach 891 students by 2016-17.

SchoolYear

Grades (K-5) Grades (6-8) Grades (9-12)

-10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10%

2006-07* 1,399 714 1,034

2007-08 1,224 1,360 1,496 678 714 785 926 1,029 1,132

2008-09 1,177 1,308 1,439 709 746 821 912 1,013 1,114

2009-10 1,179 1,310 1,441 690 726 799 879 977 1,075

2010-11 1,167 1,297 1,427 690 726 799 867 963 1,059

2011-12 1,184 1,316 1,448 651 685 754 890 989 1,088

2012-13 1,205 1,339 1,473 651 685 754 860 955 1,051

2013-14 1,224 1,360 1,496 614 646 711 876 973 1,070

2014-15 1,234 1,371 1,508 604 636 700 857 952 1,047

2015-16 1,253 1,392 1,531 605 637 701 805 894 98 3

2016-17 1,248 1,387 1,526 629 662 728 802 891 98 0

Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, allst

other years - Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc., April 2007.


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! 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Model for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model, then takes into account a reductionin enrollment due to the closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick which relates to the stages of military personnel deployment to occur over thenext four years. Planning Decisions considers this model to be based on a more aggressive reduction of students compared with the 2006-07NASB Closing Scenario 2 model presented on the following page. In other words, this model estimates a decline in enrollment will occur inlarger amounts over a short period of time. This model also accounts for an increase in school population from new students moving into housingunits vacated by military personnel. A discussion of how these projections were developed can be found in Section III of this report.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 Model


Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model, Planning Decisions projects first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those militarydependents leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearlyswings, and declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 184and 241 students through 2016-17.


Grades K-5 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399students, to reach 1,130 students by 2009-10. Following 2009-10,enrollment will increase to reach 1,340 students by 2013-14. Following2013-14 enrollment will increase further to range between 1,371 and 1,392students through 2016-17.

Grades 6-8 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714students, to range between 664 and 711 students through 2012-13.Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline further to range between 636and 662 students through 2016-17.

Grades 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,034students, to reach 980 students by 2008-09. Following 2008-09, enrollmentwill decline further to range between 916 and 969 students through2014-15. Following 2014-15, enrollment will decline further to reach 891students by 2016-17.

SchoolYear


-10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10%

2006-07* 1,399 714 1,034

2007-08 1,206 1,340 1,474 636 707 778 921 1,023 1,125

2008-09 1,087 1,208 1,329 640 711 782 882 980 1,078

2009-10 1,017 1,130 1,243 597 663 729 824 916 1,008

2010-11 1,059 1,177 1,295 616 684 752 831 923 1,015

2011-12 1,130 1,256 1,382 598 664 730 872 969 1,066

2012-13 1,169 1,299 1,429 604 671 738 848 942 1,036

2013-14 1,206 1,340 1,474 575 639 703 869 966 1,063

2014-15 1,234 1,371 1,508 572 636 700 857 952 1,047

2015-16 1,253 1,392 1,531 573 637 701 805 894 98 3

2016-17 1,248 1,387 1,526 596 662 728 802 891 98 0




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! 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Model for All Brunswick Residents

Planning Decisions 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model, then takes into account a reductionin enrollment due to the closing of Naval Air Station Brunswick which relates to the stages of military personnel deployment set to occur over the next four years. Planning Decisions considers this model to be based on a less aggressive reduction of students compared to the 2006-07NASB Closing Scenario 1 model. In other words, this model estimates a decline in enrollment will occur in smaller amounts over a longer

period of time. This model also accounts for an increase in school population from new students moving into housing units vacated by military personnel. A discussion of how these projections were developed can be found in Section III of this report.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)All Brunswick Residents - 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 Model


Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, Planning Decisions projects first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those militarydependents leaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearlyswings, and declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 187and 232 students.


Grades K-5 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399students, to reach 1,156 students by 2011-12. Following 2011-12,enrollment will increase yearly to reach 1,387 students by 2016-17.

Grades 6-8 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714students, to reach 684 students by 2010-11. Following 2010-11, enrollmentwill decline further to range between 618 and 662 students through2016-17.

Grades 9-12 enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,034students, to reach 950 students by 2009-10. Following 2009-10, enrollmentwill decline further to range between 887 and 946 students through2016-17.

SchoolYear


-10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10% -10% Proj. +10%

2006-07* 1,399 714 1,034

2007-08 1,224 1,360 1,496 643 714 785 926 1,029 1,132

2008-09 1,159 1,288 1,417 665 739 813 906 1,007 1,108

2009-10 1,107 1,230 1,353 628 698 768 855 95 0 1,045

2010-11 1,059 1,177 1,295 616 684 752 831 92 3 1,015

2011-12 1,040 1,156 1,272 566 629 692 842 93 5 1,029

2012-13 1,079 1,199 1,319 572 636 700 817 90 8 99 9

2013-14 1,152 1,280 1,408 556 618 680 851 94 6 1,041

2014-15 1,198 1,331 1,464 560 622 684 845 93 9 1,033

2015-16 1,235 1,372 1,509 567 630 693 798 88 7 97 6

2016-17 1,248 1,387 1,526 596 662 728 802 89 1 98 0




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! 2006-07 Best Fit Model for Durham Choice Tuition Students:

Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model of Durham choice tuition student enrollment is first based on the 2006-07 best fit model for allDurham students. Then takes into account a reduction in projected 9-12 Durham enrollment due to some Durham students (approximately 14%of total 9-12 Durham students) choosing to attend high schools other than Brunswick High School. These projections should provide theBrunswick School Department with reasonable estimates of future Durham choice tuition enrollment.

School Enrollment Projection Ranges - 2007-08 to 2016-17 (K-12)Durham Choice Tuition Students Enrollment - 2006-07 Best Fit Model


Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projects that 9-12 enrollment of Durham choice tuitionstudents will decline from the current enrollment of 183students, to reach 150 students by 2010-11. Following2010-11, enrollment will decline further to range


SchoolYear

Grades (9-12)

-5% Proj. +5%

2006-07* 183

2007-08 158 166 174

2008-09 153 161 169

2009-10 143 151 159

2010-11 143 150 158

2011-12 135 142 149

2012-13 131 138 145

2013-14 135 142 149

2014-15 126 133 140

2015-16 127 134 141

2016-17 141 148 155

Sources: *2006-07 - current enrollment based on October 1 Enrollment Reports, all other years -stProjected by Planning Decisions, Inc., April 2007.


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TECHNICAL NOTES FROM THE ENROLLMENT STUDY:

! Resident Births:

Planning Decisions does not use the calendar year to determine the number of resident births in a year to project future entering first gradeclass sizes but instead bases the birth year on when a student is eligible to enroll, or from October 15 of one year to October 14 of theth th

next. Because the data supplied by the Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics at the Maine Department of Human Services for October is based on October 1 to the 31 , the October births were split in half so that one half is put into one year and the other half isst st

put into the following years birth figures. This allows the cohort survival model to more accurately project entering first grade class sizes.Birth data from calendar years 2004 to 2006 is preliminary, but historically this data has been very accurate.

! Grade-to-Grade Net Migration Ratios:

In making grade-to-grade projections, Planning Decisions analyzes the historical average grade-to-grade survival ratios over the last 10,5, 4, and 3-year periods, and applies the average that displays the strongest statistical relationship to existing class sizes and the

projections of entering first grade class sizes.

When net migration ratios are discussed throughout the study, a ratio higher than 1.000 indicates a net in-migration of children occurred,and a ratio less than 1.000 indicates a net out-migration of children occurred.

! Changes in Resident Student Counts:

Starting in 2003-04 school year, the Maine Department of Education no longer allowed for Non-Mainstreamed Special Education studentsto be accounted for separately on the October 1 Enrollment Reports. Instead, these students were accounted for in the individual gradesst

based on their age. This change was made to be consistent with the No Child Left Behind Act and the new Maine Educational DataManagement System (MEDMS).

Starting in 2006-07, the Maine Department of Education has school districts uploading enrollment information to MEDMS verse filingthe EF-M-11 Resident Enrollment reports. This change may cause data consistency problems with whether some resident students areincluded in the resident enrollment data.


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! Resident Enrollment Projections Ranges:

To provide reasonable cushions for use in the planning of school facilities, Planning Decisions has summarized school enrollment projections for the best fit model by grade group and presented the projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the PreK-12 gradelevels for Brunswick residents and plus and minus 5% for grades 9-12 of Durham choice tuition enrollment.


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I. INTRODUCTION & METHODOLOGY

Change in school enrollment derives from two sources: changes in the number of births to residents in a community, and net migration of preschool andschool-aged children into and out of the community. These projections reflect both sources of change.

These projections are based on Planning Decisions in-house cohort survival model which contains two steps. First, we analyze historical trends and

relationships between entering class sizes (first grade enrollment) and resident births in the year that is six years prior to the enrollment year. Correlationcoefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) are calculated for the last three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine and ten-year periods regarding the relationship between first grade enrollment and births. The correlation coefficients are examined to determine which period represents the statistical best fit for projecting future first grade enrollment based on resident birth data.

Second, we analyze historical trends at each grade level. Specifically, we examine the grade-to-grade survival ratios. These ratios represent the number of students in a grade in one year (i.e., 1 grade in 2005-06) in relation to the number of students in the next grade the following year (i.e., 2 grade inst nd

2006-07). Then we calculate correlation coefficients (using Pearsons r-squared) for the last three, four, five, and ten-year periods regarding therelationship between enrollment in a grade in one year and the next grade the following year to determine which period represents the statistical best fitat each of the grade levels. The grade-to-grade ratios that represent the best fit are then applied to the current enrollment in each grade and projected

first grade classes to project enrollment for the next ten years.

Section II of this report compares the previous projections completed by Planning Decisions to the actual enrollment in 2006-07. Section III discussestotal enrollment in Brunswick, enrollment of military dependent and traditional Brunswick residents, and the potential impact of NASB closing.Sections IV to VII of this report provide historical enrollment trends and three sets of enrollment projections which project enrollment through 2016-17for each grade and by grade group.

Section VIII of this report presents economic conditions, population trends, and residential development factors that may influence enrollment project ions.

Section IX contains tables that summarize enrollment projections for each grade grouping within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the PreK-12 grade levelsfor use in planning of school facilities in Brunswick. In addition, Durham choice tuition student enrollment in grades 9-12 are supplied within rangesof plus and minus 5%.

Grade by grade historical and projected enrollment figures are presented for Brunswick in the report Appendix .


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II. REVIEW OF PREVIOUS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

Planning Decisions had previously completed school enrollment projections for the Brunswick School Department and projected grade by gradeenrollment. This section compares those past projections for the 2006-07 school year against the actual October 1, 2006 enrollment.

A. Previous Enrollment Projections Grade-by-Grade Comparison

Table II-1 shows the variation between the previous enrollment projections and the current 2006-07 enrollment. Under the 2003-04 best fit projections for 2006-07, Planning Decisions underestimated enrollment in the seventh grade (by 30 students), the ninth grade (by 35 students), and thetenth grade (39 students). Overall this model overestimated enrollment for the total of all grades by 130 students, or by 4.1% of total K-12 enrollment.The 2003-04 best fit projections were based on a preschool net migration ratio of 0.970. The slight overestimation of the first grade enrollment suggeststhat the actual level of preschool in-migration was similar to what was used by this model.

Table II-1 - Planning Decisions Enrollment Projections for 2006-07 vs. Actual Enrollment in 2006-07Brunswick School Department

Grade2003-04

Best Fit ModelCurrent

2006-07 Enrollment

Difference of Actual Enrollment vs. Enrollment Projection

(Actual - Projections)# % Diff.

K 213 20 9 (4) (1.9)%

1 236 22 8 (8) (3.5)%

2 242 25 1 9 3.6%

3 209 20 7 (2) (1.0)%

4 249 26 0 11 4.2%

5 232 24 4 12 4.9%

6 229 23 0 1 0.4%

7 207 23 7 30 12.7%

8 258 24 7 (11) (4.5)%

9 259 29 4 35 11.9%

10 236 27 5 39 14.2%

11 228 24 0 12 5.0%

12 219 22 5 6 2.7%

K-5 1,381 1,399 18 1.3%

6-8 694 714 20 2.8%

9-12 942 1,034 92 8.9%

Total 3,017 3,147 130 4.1%

Sources: Planning Decisions, Inc. Projections, 2006-07 enrollment from October 1 Resident Enrollment Report.st


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B. Grade Group Projections Comparison

The Brunswick School Department consists of Kindergarten through the twelfth grade and operates with three grade groupings; Kindergarten tofifth, sixth to eighth, and ninth to twelfth grade. In the previous enrollment reports, Planning Decisions summarized the projections into the gradegroupings and presented the projections within ranges of plus and minus 10% at the K-5 grade level and plus and minus 5% at the 6-8 and 9-12 gradelevels. Table II-2 present the projected 2006-07 enrollment ranges completed previously, along with the actual enrollment based on the 2006-07 October 1 Resident Enrollment Reports. Actual enrollment for October 2006 at the grade group level fell within the ranges projected by Planning Decisionsst

previously with the exception of the underestimation of the 9-12 projections by the 2003-04 best fit model.

Table II-2 - Actual Enrollment vs. Planning Decisions Projected Ranges by Grade Group for the 2006-07 School YearBrunswick School Department

Grade Group2003-04 Best Fit Model Current 2006-07

EnrollmentProj. Proj. RangeK-5 1,381 1,243 - 1,519 1,3996-8 694 625 - 763 714

9-12 942 895 - 989 1,034Source: Planning Decisions, Inc. Projections; October 1 Resident Enrollment Report.st


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C. Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes

The key factor in future school enrollment is the size of the entering class. Planning Decisions projection models use the first grade as the enteringclass size. Planning Decisions model does not use the Kindergarten class as the entering class because it is often subject to policy changes over time thatcan impact enrollment (i.e., changes from half day to full day Kindergarten) and changes in when parents decide to start children in the school system.

As indicated in Tables II-1 , the actual number of first grade students based on the October 1 2006 data was 228 students, 8 students less thanst

projected by the 2003-04 best fit model. Understanding the source of the difference is important in refining the future projections.

Entering first grade class sizes are influenced by several factors including:

Resident births

Net preschool migration (net effect of households with preschoolers moving into the school district versus out of the school district)

Patterns regarding the age when parents start children in the school system

Patterns regarding children entering public versus private schools

Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, it appears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is followinghistorical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slight overestimation of the 2006-07 first grade enrollment by 8 students will be taken into account whenupdating the enrollment projections.


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Table II-3 - Grade-to-Grade Survival Ratios Between 2005-06 and 2006-07Planning Decisions Projected Ratios vs. Actual Ratios

GradesRatios used by the

2003-04 Best Fit ModelActual Ratios Between2005-06 and 2006-07

Difference(Actual - Projection)

K-1 0.999 1.022 0.023

1-2 0.989 1.068 0.079

2-3 0.961 0.990 0.029

3-4 0.991 0.985 -0.006

4-5 0.988 1.043 0.055

5-6 0.995 1.041 0.046

6-7 0.996 1.009 0.013

7-8 0.968 0.961 -0.007

8-9 1.067 1.093 0.026

9-10 0.951 0.975 0.02410-11 0.922 0.902 -0.020

11-12 0.936 0.978 0.042Sources: Planning Decisions Projections, October 1 Resident Enrollment Reports.st


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E. Net Elementary Migration (Grades 1-6)

The survival ratios are an indication of how much net annual migration is occurring at each grade. In making projections and conducting analysesof school enrollment trends, Planning Decisions typically summarizes net migration levels for the first through sixth grade. Net migration can significantlyinfluence enrollment at these grade levels. Net migration at the 1-6 level is measured by the total number of students in grades 2-6 in one year minus thetotal number of students in grades 1-5 the previous year.

Table II-4 presents annual net elementary migration (1-6) experienced by the Brunswick School Department from 1996-97 to 2006-07, along withthe projected and actual levels of net migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07. Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an out-migration of about 17students in grades 1-6, while an in-migration of 29 students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisionscompleted the 2003-04 best fit model, migration trends indicate a decline in the level of out-migration with some slight in-migration of elementarystudents occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementary migration does appear to be changing to an average in or out-migrationof only a few students compared with the larger out-migration seen previously. In addition, the recent change in elementary migration trends will be takeninto account in the future.

Net migration is influenced by two factors; new residential development, and turnover in the existing housing stock. Both factors are influenced by local and regional economic and housing market conditions. The potential impact of these factors is discussed further in Section VIII of this report.


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Table II-4 - Net Elementary (Grades 1-6) Migration, 1996-97 to 2006-07Town of Brunswick

Enrollment Years Net Migration1996-97 to 1997-98 (48)1997-98 to 1998-99 (46)1998-99 to 1999-00 (46)

1999-00 to 2000-01 (4)2000-01 to 2001-02 (56)2001-02 to 2002-03 72002-03 to 2003-04 (2)2003-04 to 2004-05 (1)2004-05 to 2005-06 (30)2005-06 to 2006-07 29

10 Year Avg. (97-06) (20)

5 Year Avg. (02-06) 13 Year Avg. (04-06) (1)

Projected Migration for 2006-072003-04 Best Fit Model (17)

2005-06 to 2006-07 Actual Migration 29Sources: Calculated by Planning Decisions, Inc. based on October 1, Enrollment Reports and Planning Decisions Projections.


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F. Summary of Previous Enrollment Projections Comparison

Overall, the 2003-04 best fit projections, underestimated total K-12 enrollment for 2006-07, underestimating total K-12 enrollment in 2006-07 by about 4%. Since the best fit model came close to projecting first grade enrollment for 2006-07, or overestimated the first grade by 8 students, itappears first grade enrollment in Brunswick is following historical enrollment trends. Regardless, the slight overestimation of the 2006-07 first gradeenrollment by 8 students will be taken into account when updating the enrollment projections, as will the underestimation of total K-12 enrollment inBrunswick.

Based on this analysis, although grades 1-2 experienced a high level of in-migration between 2005-06 and 2006-07, Planning Decisions foundnothing to suggest migration trends are changing between these grade levels, or at other grade levels. Regardless, Planning Decisions recommends thatthe Brunswick School Department keep an eye on future grade-to-grade migration, specifically at grades 1-2 for potential changes in migration trends.

Planning Decisions previous projections for 2006-07 reflected an out-migration of about 17 students in grades 1-6, while an in-migration of 29students occurred between 2005-06 and 2006-07. When Planning Decisions completed the 2003-04 best fit model, a decline in the level of out-migrationwith some slight in-migration appeared to be occurring. Based on the most recent enrollment data, average elementary migration does appear to bechanging to an average in or out-migration of only a few students compared with the larger out-migration seen previously. In addition, the recent changein elementary migration trends will be taken into account when updating enrollment projections.


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III. ENROLLMENT OF BRUNSWICK RESIDENT STUDENTS

The Brunswick School Department educates three different groups of students. The first group is what Planning Decisions refers to as non-military or traditional students. These traditional students are Brunswick resident students who follow a traditional path through a school system. The secondgroup of students is called military dependent students, or students who are children of military personnel stationed at Naval Air Station Brunswick,and are students who generally do not follow a normal path through a school system because of their parents employment requiring frequent relocation.

The third group of students is choice tuition students from the Town of Durham who attend the Brunswick High School. These students are residentsof the Town of Durham who choose to attend high school in Brunswick. Historical and projected enrollment of Durham choice tuition students in grades9-12 will be discussed in more detail in Section VII of this report.

Table III-1 shows the historical distribution of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick between non-military and military dependent student enrollment.Since 1996-97, total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick ranged between 3,169 and 3,249 students through 2002-03. Following 2002-03, enrollment declinedslightly to range between 3,125 and 3,159 students through 2006-07. Brunswicks military dependent enrollment has remained fairly consistent since1996-97, and accounted for about 19% to 22% of total K-12 enrollment in Brunswick.

Table III-1 - Historical K-12 Enrollment, 1996-97 to 2006-07Brunswick School Department

SchoolYear

Brunswick, Non-Military (K-12) Brunswick Military (K-12)Total

# % # %1996-97 2,504 79.0% 665 21.0% 3,1691997-98 2,546 79.1% 671 20.9% 3,2171998-99 2,609 80.3% 640 19.7% 3,2491999-00 2,606 81.4% 596 18.6% 3,2022000-01 2,578 81.2% 595 18.8% 3,173

2001-02 2,523 79.5% 652 20.5% 3,1752002-03 2,552 79.9% 643 20.1% 3,1952003-04 2,498 79.2% 657 20.8% 3,1552004-05 2,461 77.9% 698 22.1% 3,1592005-06 2,494 79.0% 664 21.0% 3,1582006-07 2,435 77.9% 690 22.1% 3,125

Source: October 1 Enrollment Reports, data for Military students provided by the B runswick School Departmentst


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A. Impact of NASB Closing on School Enrollment in Brunswick

To provide the Brunswick School Department with comprehensive enrollment projections, Planning Decisions investigated historical enrollmenttrends for each group of students. However, while the grade-to-grade data for military dependent students was unavailable for 1996-97 to 2002-03,total K-12 enrollment data from 1996-97 through 2006-07, and grade-to-grade for 2003-04 through 2006-07 was available for these military dependentstudents. Since, the Brunswick School Department estimated the grade-to-grade data prior to 2003-04 based on the total K-12 data and the 2003-04 grade-to-grade data, Planning Decisions was unable to provide a detailed analysis of historical trends and grade-to-grade net migration over the last ten years.

However, based on the total K-12 enrollment, Planning Decisions can provide an estimate of future military dependent students based on the overallhistorical K-12 enrollment of these students and the grade-to-grade enrollment of all Brunswick residents. The enrollment of all Brunswick residents wasthen reduced by the estimated enrollment of military dependents to determine potential enrollment of non-military or traditional students. While thisis an imperfect measure of historical and future enrollment in Brunswick, it should provide the Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimatesof future enrollment trends for school planning purposes.

Based on total K-12 enrollment trends of military dependent students, Planning Decisions would assume the Brunswick School Departmentwould experience an enrollment of approximated 675 military dependent students in grades K-12. Or, 400 students in grades K-5, 140 students in grades6-8, and another 135 students in grades 9-12. However, a major factor which will impact Brunswicks enrollment in the future is the decommissioningof Naval Air Station Brunswick (NASB).

The decommissioning process will occur in phases with squadrons leaving the Air Station between Fall 2008 and Spring 2010, and all other personnel (military and federal civilians) leaving between Spring 2010 and 2011 once the squadrons have been realigned. However, this time line issubject to change, and will be dependent largely on whether the Naval Air Station in Jacksonville Florida is ready to receive the squadrons and additional

personnel. The exact timing of closure will likely change as Naval Air Station Brunswick assesses the closure activities and Jacksonvilles ability to absorbthe additional personnel and equipment, and some will be sent to other locations temporarily, or for approximately 6 months, before going to their

permanent locations. However, the closure time line as of February 2007, has the first squadron set to leave in December 2008, with another leaving inJune 2009, another leaving in October to November 2009, and the final two leaving in December 2009. While three of the squadrons will leave over ashort period of time, or generally over a week, two squadrons, (the squadron leaving in October to December 2009, and one leaving in December 2009)will take longer to fully deploy, possibly taking up to one year to fully deploy. In addition, once the last of the squadrons personnel have left, theremaining personnel (such as those with the maintenance department and any administrative staff) will be set to leave the base.

Given that some military personnel are scheduled to leave after a school year begins, projecting student enrollment of military dependent students becomes more difficult. For example, while some parents may decide to leave prior to the beginning of the school year and/or prior to their militaryspouses being moved, some parents may decide to allow their children to finish the school year in Brunswick and then join their spouses the followingspring/summer at their assignments. Estimating the exact timing of when parents will decide to make the move is impossible, however, Planning Decisionscan provide the Brunswick School Department with estimates based on the current closure time line and on a best guess of parental moving choice.


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In addition, Planning Decisions does strongly suggest that the Brunswick School Department monitor the military dependent out-migrationby staying in touch with their families and by asking the military dependent families when they may choose to leave.

Therefore, based on our conversations with NASB and on Planning Decisions best guess, we will provide the Brunswick School Departmentwith two scenarios outlining the potential impact on military dependent enrollment during the decommissioning process. The first scenario will assumea faster out-migration will occur, or NASB Closing Scenario 1 will assume military families will choose to leave prior to the beginning of the school year during the year their spouses squadron will be deployed. Or, if the squadron is set to leave in December 2008, most personnel will choose to leave prior

to the beginning of the 2008-09 school year. NASB Closing Scenario 2 will assume as slower out-migration occurs, or that some military families willchoose to leave prior to the beginning of the school year, and some families will wait until the following spring. In other words, if a squadron leaves inDecember 2008, Planning Decisions will assume fewer students will leave prior to the beginning of the 2008-09 school year. Both Scenarios estimatesome military dependent students will remain following the deployment of the squadrons due to their parents being in the air maintenance department,administrative functions or in other areas needed through to the final stages of decommissioning.

Planning Decisions estimated that if the NASB did not close, the Brunswick School Department would continue to enroll roughly 675 militarydependent students per year in grades K-12. Using the estimate of 675 students in grades K-12 compared to the projected percent of loss estimates,Planning Decisions can provide estimated future military dependent enrollment. (See Table III-2). In addition, the two scenarios of potential militarydependent enrollment are supplied by Planning Decisions for the grade groups, K-5, 6-8, and 9-12 in the grade group Sections of this report. These

potential enrollment scenarios should provide the Brunswick School Department with reasonable estimates of future enrollment in Brunswick during thedecommissioning process.

Table III-2 - Estimated Decline of the Military Dependent PopulationBrunswick School Department

School YearNASB Closing Scenario 1 NASB Closing Scenario 2

% Loss EstimateK-12 Enrollment of Military

Dependent Students% Loss Estimate

K-12 Enrollment of MilitaryDependent Students

2006-07* 0% 690 0% 690

2007-08 10% 608 0% 6752008-09 50% 338 10% 608

2009-10 85% 101 40% 4052010-11 90% 68 60% 270

2011-12 95% 34 80% 1352012-13 100% 0 95% 34

2013-14 to 2016-17 100% 0 100% 0

Source: Planning Decisions estimated of out-migration of military dependents.


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B. New Brunswick Student In-Migration

With the loss of military personnel from the Brunswick area, comes an in-migration of new residents from other areas. According to recentestimates, there are roughly 750 units of single-family housing in Brunswick and Topsham, and another 1,600 units currently occupied by military

personnel and their families around the Brunswick area. In addition, housing from civilian employees who choose to move away from the region mayalso become available to new home buyers and renters. This turnover in the existing housing stock will cause a significant fluctuation in the school-aged

population over the next ten years. However, as discussed previously, the extent of the change in the school-aged population and the timing of the change

in population will be largely impacted by when the military personnel are relocated and when and if their families decide to leave.

NOTE: While the scope and timing of the transition of people moving into and out of Brunswick is difficult to estimate, Planning Decisionsdoes believe over the next ten years following the closure of NASB, school enrollment will rebound to be similar to levels projectedby the 2006-07 best fit model based on historical enrollment trends in Brunswick. Therefore, Planning Decisions believes long-term planning of school facilities in Brunswick should be made based on Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model verse anestimate of enrollment losses from the NASB decommissioning.

However, Planning Decisions will provide the Brunswick School Department with two scenarios of new student in-migration from turnover of the existing housing stock in the area to be used with the loss estimates of military dependent students, or NASB Closing Scenario 1 and NASB Closing

Scenario 2. These estimates are based on military dependent losses and Planning Decisions assumptions of how the new student in-migration would occur.For the first few years, the estimate was based on about half of the students lost will be replaced immediately in the year they are lost, then the model

begins to increase the in-migration until it comes inline with the total loss of military students. For example under Scenario 1 , in 2007-08 10% of militarystudents will be lost, while 5% of new students will be gained, and by 2012-13 when 100% of military dependents are lost, Brunswick should experience90% increase in new student in-migration. (See Table III-3).

Table III-4 shows all three K-12 enrollment scenarios for the Brunswick School Department. These projections, while an imperfect measure of future enrollment in Brunswick, should provide the School Department with reasonable estimates of potential enrollment scenarios. In addition, in SectionIX of this report Planning Decisions will supply the enrollment in NASB Closing Scenario 1 and NASB Closing Scenario 2 within ranges of plus andminus 10% to account for fluctuations in trends and potential increases in in-migration of new students not currently anticipated.

While these projections should provide the School Department with reasonable estimates of change, Planning Decisions does stronglysuggest that the Brunswick School Department keep a close eye on future year-to-year enrollment trends over the next five to ten years. Inaddition, the Department should strongly consider reevaluating enrollment trends on a year-to-year basis as the timing of military personnelleaving the NASB becomes clearer, and the patterns of housing stock turn over from the military personnel leaving develop.


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Table III-3 - Estimate of Increase from New Residents Moving into Military Housing (Both Private and Military Owned)Brunswick School Department

SchoolYear

NASB Closing Scenario 1 NASB Closing Scenario 2

% In-Migration EstimateK-12 Enrollment of

New Students% In-Migration Estimate

K-12 Enrollment of New Students

2006-07* 0% 690 0% 690

2007-08 5% 34 0% 02008-09 25% 169 5% 342009-10 40% 270 20% 1352010-11 60% 405 30% 2032011-12 80% 540 40% 2702012-13 90% 608 60% 4052013-14 95% 641 80% 5402014-15 100% 675 90% 608

2015-16 100% 675 95% 6412016-17 100% 675 100% 675

Source: Planning Decisions in-migration of new resident students in Brunswick.


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Table III-4 - Historical and Projected Enrollment, 1996-97 to 2016-17Brunswick School Department

SchoolYear

No Change - 2006-07 Best Fit ModelNASB Closing Scenario 1

(Faster Out-Migration of Military &Faster In-Migration of New Residents)

NASB Closing Scenario 2(Slower Out-Migration of Military &

Slower In-Migration of New Residents)

Al lStudents

Non-Military(K-12)

Military(K-12) Total

Non-Military(K-12)

Military(K-12)

In-MigrationNew R esidents Total

Non-Military(K-12)

Military(K-12)

In-MigrationNew R esidents Total

# # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %

1996-97 3,128 2,463 78.7% 665 21.3% 3,128 2,463 78.7% 665 21.3% 3,128 2,463 78.7% 665 21.3% 3,128

1997-98 3,147 2,476 78.7% 671 21.3% 3,147 2,476 78.7% 671 21.3% 3,147 2,476 78.7% 671 21.3% 3,147

1998-99 3,180 2,540 79.9% 640 20.1% 3,180 2,540 79.9% 640 20.1% 3,180 2,540 79.9% 640 20.1% 3,180

1999-00 3,122 2,526 80.9% 596 19.1% 3,122 2,526 80.9% 596 19.1% 3,122 2,526 80.9% 596 19.1% 3,122

2000-01 3,094 2,499 80.8% 595 19.2% 3,094 2,499 80.8% 595 19.2% 3,094 2,499 80.8% 595 19.2% 3,094

2001-02 2,993 2,341 78.2% 652 21.8% 2,993 2,341 78.2% 652 21.8% 2,993 2,341 78.2% 652 21.8% 2,993

2002-03 3,040 2,397 78.8% 643 21.2% 3,040 2,397 78.8% 643 21.2% 3,040 2,397 78.8% 643 21.2% 3,040

2003-04 3,155 2,498 79.2% 657 20.8% 3,155 2,498 79.2% 657 20.8% 3,155 2,498 79.2% 657 20.8% 3,155

2004-05 3,159 2,461 77.9% 698 22.1% 3,159 2,461 77.9% 698 22.1% 3,159 2,461 77.9% 698 22.1% 3,159

2005-06 3,158 2,494 79.0% 664 21.0% 3,158 2,494 79.0% 664 21.0% 3,158 2,494 79.0% 664 21.0% 3,158

2006-07* 3,125 2,435 77.9% 690 22.1% 3,125 2,435 77.9% 690 22.1% 3,125 2,435 77.9% 690 22.1% 3,125

2007-08 3,092 2,412 78.1% 675 21.9% 3,087 2,412 79.0% 608 19.9% 34 1.1% 3,053 2,412 78.1% 675 21.9% 0 0.0% 3,087

2008-09 3,052 2,372 77.8% 675 22.2% 3,047 2,372 82.4% 338 11.7% 1 69 5.9% 2,878 2,372 78.7% 608 20.2% 34 1.1% 3,013

2009-10 2,996 2,316 77.4% 675 22.6% 2,991 2,316 86.2% 101 3.8% 270 10.0% 2,687 2,316 81.1% 405 14.2% 1 35 4.7% 2,856

2010-11 2,975 2,295 77.3% 675 22.7% 2,970 2,295 82.9% 68 2.4% 405 14.6% 2,768 2,295 82.9% 270 9.8%2 03 7.3% 2,768

2011-12 2,979 2,299 77.3% 675 22.7% 2,974 2,299 80.0% 34 1.2% 540 18.8% 2,873 2,299 85.0% 135 5.0% 270 10.0% 2,704

2012-13 2,968 2,288 77.2% 675 22.8% 2,963 2,288 79.0% 0 0.0% 608 21.0% 2,896 2,288 83.9% 34 1.2% 405 14.9% 2,727

2013-14 2,968 2,288 77.2% 675 22.8% 2,963 2,288 78.1% 0 0.0% 641 21.9% 2,929 2,288 80.9% 0 0.0% 540 19.1% 2,828

2014-15 2,949 2,269 77.1% 675 22.9% 2,944 2,269 77.1% 0 0.0% 675 22.9% 2,944 2,269 78.9% 0 0.0% 608 21.1% 2,877

2015-16 2,913 2,233 76.8% 675 23.2% 2,908 2,233 76.8% 0 0.0% 675 23.2% 2,908 2,233 77.7% 0 0.0% 641 22.3% 2,874

2016-17 2,932 2,252 76.9% 675 23.1% 2,927 2,252 76.9% 0 0.0% 675 23.1% 2,927 2,252 76.9% 0 0.0% 675 23.1% 2,927

Source: October 1 Enrollment Reports, data for Military students provided by Brunswick School Department, and Planning Decisions projections.st


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IV. FIRST GRADE ENROLLMENT

A. Historical Entering First Grade Enrollment

A review of first grade enrollment in Brunswick over the last ten years (1997-98 to 2006-07) reveals enrollment that increased slightly, on average.During this ten-year period, first grade enrollment ranged between a low of 209 students in 2001-02, and a high of 271 students in 1998-99, with anaverage enrollment of 243 students. The average first grade enrollment over the last five years (2002-03 to 2006-07), was 241 students, which was similar to the average during the previous five years (1997-98 to 2001-02), or 244 students. (See Table IV-1 and Figure IV-2).

Table IV-1 - Relationship of Entering First Grade Class Size to Resident BirthsTown of Brunswick

Birth Year(Oct. 15 - Oct. 14)

# of Births 1 Grade Year 1 Grade Enrollmentst stRatio

1st/Births

1990-91 280 1997-98 261 0.932

1991-92 312 1998-99 271 0.869

1992-93 271 1999-00 262 0.967

1993-94 209 2000-01 219 1.048

1994-95 265 2001-02 209 0.789

1995-96 262 2002-03 252 0.962

1996-97 242 2003-04 264 1.091

1997-98 227 2004-05 227 1.000

1998-99 252 2005-06 235 0.933

1999-00 243 2006-07 228 0.938

5 Yr Avg. (91-95) 267 5 Yr Avg. (97-01) 244 0.921

5 Yr Avg. (96-00) 245 5 Yr Avg. (02-06) 241 0.985

10 Yr Avg. (91-00) 256 10 Yr Avg. (97-06) 243 0.953Sources: Births - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services; 1 Grade Enrollment - October 1 , Enrollment Reports. All else calculatedst st

by Pla nnin g D eci sio ns, Inc .


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B. Factors Influencing Entering First Grade Class Size

The size of the first grade class is influenced by two factors: the number of births to residents of a community during the year that is six years prior to the enrollment year; and, the level of net migration of preschool-aged children (number of preschool-aged children moving into the communityminus the number of preschool-aged children moving out of the community) during the first grade enrollment year and the year that was six years prior.The level of preschool migration can be measured by the ratio of enrollment for the entering first grade class to the number of births to residents in theyear that was six years prior.

1. Resident Birth Levels

Birth levels among Brunswick residents during the ten-year period (1990-91 to 1999-00), declined on average. The average number of births over the last five years of the period, (1995-96 to 1999-00), was 245 births, which is lower than the average for the first five years of the period (1990-91 to 1994-95), or 267 births. The decline in resident births between 1995-96 and 1999-00 has placed downward pressure onentering first grade class sizes over the last five years. (See Table IV-1 and Figure IV-1).

2. Net Preschool Migration

In the first five years of the last decade, (1997-98 to 2001-02), Brunswick experienced an out-migration of preschool-aged children, withan average net migration ratio of 0.921. In the past five years, (2002-03 to 2006-07), Brunswick experienced a lower level of out-migration of

preschool-aged children, with an average net migration ratio of 0.985. Over the last five years, net preschool out-migration has declined andplaced less downward pressure on entering first grade class sizes. (See Table IV-1).

Taken together, a decline in the level of resident births combined with a decline in the level of preschool out-migration, has resultedin entering first grade class sizes that, on average, have remained fairly stable over the last ten years.


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C. Recent Resident Birth Trends

Between 1996-97 and 2005-06, the number of births to all residents of Brunswick, on average, remained fairly stable, while fluctuating year-to-year, averaging 236 births annually, and ranging between 219 and 260 births. The most recent five-year period (2001-02 to 2005-06) averaged 235 births,while the previous five-year period (1996-97 to 2000-01) had a similar average of births at 237 births. However, over the last three years (2003-04 to2005-06) the average of births to Brunswick residents was higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 242 births. The increase in resident

births is the result of two years 2004-05 and 2005-06, experiencing unusually high level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on

average, births have also fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Therefore, the Brunswick SchoolDepartment should keep an eye on year-to-year resident birth trends. Based on the last three-year trends, resident births should continue to average about242 births annually, although year-to-year fluctuations will continue to occur. (See Table IV-2 and Figure IV-1).

Planning Decisions obtained data on the number of Brunswick residents births to military personnel. This data was compiled from information parents provided when filing for a birth certificate. While the data was collected through 2005, the Maine Department of Human Services no longer requires hospitals to collect the information, and no longer codes the birth data they receive to include parent occupation or employer. In addition, whilethe birth data Planning Decisions uses to project school enrollment is based on October 15 through October 14 of a year, the military dependent residentth

birth data is based on a calendar year. Therefore, while this is an imperfect date correlation, it will provide Planning Decisions with a reasonable estimateof how many Brunswick resident births are military dependents.

Between 1996 and 2005, the number of births to military dependents in Brunswick has, on average, remained fairly stable. Over the ten-year periodof 1996 and 2005, births to residents of Brunswick averaged 75 births annually, ranging between 63 and 88 births. The most recent five-year period (2001to 2005) averaged 75 births, while the previous five-year period (1996 to 2000) also averaged 75 births. However, over the last three years (2003 to 2005)the average of births to Brunswick residents was slightly higher than the most recent five-year average, averaging 78 births. The increase in resident birthsis the result of one year 2005, experiencing an unusually high level of births. In addition, while resident births have increased on average, births havealso fluctuated significantly year-to-year, causing the first grade class sizes to fluctuate year-to-year. Planning Decisions will assume when Naval Air Station Brunswick closes, resident births should decline by about 75 births annually, or Brunswick resident births should average around 160 birthsannually. This estimate does not take into consideration changes in the population due to new families moving into the housing formerly occupied by the NASB personnel.


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Table IV-2 - Trends in Resident Births - 1996-97 to 2005-06Town of Brunswick


Town of Brunswick (All Brunswick Residents)

Birth Year Military BirthsEstimated Brunswick

Resident Births withoutMilitary Births

1996-97 242 1996 70 172

1997-98 227 1997 66 1611998-99 252 1998 86 1661999-00 243 1999 68 1752000-01 219 2000 84 1352001-02 220 2001 77 1432002-03 229 2002 63 166

2003-04 pre 219 2003 68 1512004-05 pre 247 2004 77 170

2005-06 pre 260 2005 88 17210 Yr Avg. (97-06) 236 10 Yr Avg. (96-05) 75 1615 Yr Avg. (97-01) 237 5 Yr Avg. (96-05) 75 1625 Yr Avg. (02-06) 235 5 Yr Avg. (01-05) 75 1603 Yr Avg. (04-06) 242 3 Yr Avg. (03-05) 78 164Source: Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services, 2004 to 2006 births are preliminary.


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Figure IV-1


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D. Projections of Entering First Grade Class Sizes

Planning Decisions 2006-07 best fit model is based on average resident birth levels in Brunswick between 2003-04 and 2005-06, and on acontinuation of an out-migration of preschool-aged children similar to the level occurring over the three years. Under the 2006-07 best fit model,Planning Decisions projects that first grade enrollment of all Brunswick residents will experience yearly swings corresponding with swings in resident

births, with enrollment ranging between 210 and 249 students through 2016-17. In addition, Brunswick should experience an average first gradeenrollment of 226 students over the next ten years. (See Table IV-3 and Figure IV-2).

Under NASB Closing Scenario 1 , Planning Decisions projections that first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military dependentsleaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly swings, plus declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 184 and 241 studentsthrough 2016-17.

Under NASB Closing Scenario 2 , Planning Decisions projections that first grade enrollment of Brunswick residents (less those military dependentsleaving plus new residents coming in) will experience yearly swings, plus declines in enrollment, with enrollment ranging between 187 and 232 students.

Table IV-3 - Projected First Grade Enrollment, 2007-08 to 2016-17Town of Brunswick


# of Births 1 Grade Yearst1 Grade Enrollmentst

Best Fit ModelNASB Closing

Scenario 1NASB Closing

Scenario 22000-01 219 2007-08 210 206 2102001-02 220 2008-09 211 192 2072002-03 229 2009-10 219 184 203

2003-04 pre 219 2010-11 210 187 1872004-05 pre 247 2011-12 236 224 205

2005-06 pre 260 2012-13 249 241 2222006-07* 242 2013-14 232 228 2162007-08* 242 2014-15 232 232 2242008-09* 242 2015-16 232 232 2282009-10* 242 2016-17 232 232 232

3 Yr Avg. 04-06 242 10 Yr Avg. 07-16 226 216 213Sources : Births 2000-2005 - Office of Data, Research, and Vital Statistics; Maine Department of Human Services, 2004 to 2006 births are preliminary. *2006-07 to 2009-10 birthsestimated by Planning Decisions based on average births between 2003-04-2005-06. 1 Grade Enrollment - Projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.st


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Figure IV-2


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V. ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (K-5)

A. 2006 Best Fit Model

Table IV-1 - Historical and Projected Elementary School Enrollment (K-5)1996-97 to 2016-17 - Town of Brunswick - 2006-07 Best Fit Model

The elementary level in Brunswick consists of Kindergarten to thefifth grade. This section provides the Brunswick School Department

with an analysis of historical enrollment trends a set of enrollment projections which does not include the impact of Naval Air StationBrunswick being decommissioned. (See Table V-1 and Figure V-1).

Historical Enrollment Trends:

At the Kindergarten through fifth grade level, enrollment of Brunswick students declined from 1,586 students in 1996-97reaching 1,464 students by 1999-00. Following 1999-00,enrollment in Brunswick declined further, to range between 1,371

and 1,445 students through 2006-07.

2006-07 Best Fit Model Projections:

Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projectsthat K-5 enrollment of Brunswick students will decline from thecurrent enrollment of 1,399 students, ranging between 1,297 and1,392 students through 2016-17.

SchoolYear Grade Total(K-5)K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

1996-97 264 292 258 255 269 248 1,586

1997-98 285 261 259 259 271 243 1,578

1998-99 266 271 236 245 259 275 1,552

1999-00 221 262 260 238 241 242 1,464

2000-01 223 219 275 244 238 240 1,439

2001-02 250 209 214 244 224 231 1,372

2002-03 218 252 217 209 255 220 1,371

2003-04 219 264 247 235 211 269 1,445

2004-05 223 227 270 245 230 221 1,416

2005-06 223 235 209 264 234 221 1,386

2006-07* 209 228 251 207 260 244 1,399

2007-08 208 210 229 248 201 264 1,360

2008-09 216 211 210 226 241 204 1,308

2009-10 207 219 211 208 220 245 1,310

2010-11 233 210 220 209 202 223 1,297

2011-12 245 236 210 217 203 205 1,3162012-13 228 249 237 208 211 206 1,339

2013-14 228 232 250 234 202 214 1,360

2014-15 228 232 232 246 228 205 1,371

2015-16 228 232 232 229 240 231 1,392

2016-17 228 232 232 229 223 243 1,387Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other yearsst

- projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.


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B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Models

Table V-2 - Historical and Projected Elementary School Enrollment (K-5)1996-97 to 2016-17 - Brunswick Military Students and New Resident Students

This section should provide Brunswick with reasonable estimates of future military enrollment changes and additional new resident studentsin vacated military housing. However, enrollment may changesignificantly if the decommissioning time line of the Naval Air StationBrunswick changes. (See Table V-2).


Grades K-5 enrollment of traditional Brunswick students declinedfrom 1,196 students in 1996-97 reaching 1,090 students in 2000-01. Following 2000-01, enrollment in Brunswick declined further to range between 983 and 1,060 students through 2006-07.

Grades K-5 enrollment of military students since 1996-97 ranged between 349 and 416 students through 2006-07.

NASB Closing Scenario 1:

Under the 2006-07 NASB Scenario 1 model, total K-5enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399students, to reach 1,130 students by 2009-10. Following 2009-10,enrollment will increase to reach 1,340 students by 2013-14.Following 2013-14 enrollment will increase further to range

between 1,371 and 1,392 students through 2016-17.


Under 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, total K-5enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 1,399students, to reach 1,156 students by 2011-12. Following 2011-12,enrollment will increase yearly to reach 1,387 students by 2016-17.

SchoolYear

No Change-Bes t Fi t Model NASB Closing Scenar io 1 NASB Clos ing Scenar io 2

Trad.Resident

M ilitary T otal M ilitaryIn-Migr.New Res.

Tot al M il it ar yIn-Migr

New Res.Total

1996-97 1,196 390 1,586 390 1,586 390 1,586

1997-98 1,184 394 1,578 394 1,578 394 1,578

1998-99 1,177 375 1,552 375 1,552 375 1,552

1999-00 1,114 350 1,464 350 1,464 350 1,464

2000-01 1,090 349 1,439 349 1,439 349 1,439

2001-02 992 380 1,372 380 1,372 380 1,372

2002-03 995 376 1,371 376 1,371 376 1,371

2003-04 1,060 385 1,445 385 1,445 385 1,445

2004-05 1,011 405 1,416 405 1,416 405 1,4162005-06 997 389 1,386 389 1,386 389 1,386

2006-07* 983 416 1,399 416 1,399 416 1,399

2007-08 960 400 1,360 360 20 1,340 400 0 1,360

2008-09 908 400 1,308 200 100 1,208 360 20 1,288

2009-10 910 400 1,310 60 160 1,130 240 80 1,230

2010-11 897 400 1,297 40 240 1,177 160 120 1,177

2011-12 916 400 1,316 20 320 1,256 80 160 1,156

2012-13 939 400 1,339 0 360 1,299 20 240 1,199

2013-14 960 400 1,360 0 380 1,340 0 320 1,280

2014-15 971 400 1,371 0 400 1,371 0 360 1,331

2015-16 992 400 1,392 0 400 1,392 0 380 1,372

2016-17 987 400 1,387 0 400 1,387 0 400 1,387

Note: Trad. = traditional residents. New Res. = new residents from in-migration of children intovacated military housing. Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollmentst

Reports; all other years - projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.


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Figure V-1


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VI. MIDDLE SCHOOL ENROLLMENT (6-8)

A. 2006-07 Best Fit Model

Table VI-1 - Historical and Projected Middle School Enrollment (6-8)1996-97 to 2016-17 - All Brunswick Resident Students - 2006-07 Best Fit Model

The middle school level in Brunswick consists of the sixth throughthe eighth grade. This section provides the Brunswick SchoolDepartment with an analysis of historical enrollment trends andenrollment projections of all Brunswick resident students, and doesnot take into account the Naval Air Station Brunswick beingdecommissioned. (See Table VI-1 and Figure VI-1).


At the sixth to eighth grade level, since 1996-97 enrollment of Brunswick students fluctuated year-to-year, and ranged between703 and 774 students through 2006-07.

2006-07 Best Fit Model Projections:

Under the 2006-07 best fit model, Planning Decisions projectsthat 6-8 enrollment of Brunswick students will remain similar tothe current enrollment of 714 students, ranging between 685 and746 students through 2012-13. Following 2012-13, enrollmentwill decline to range between 636 and 662 students through 2016-17.

SchoolYear Grade Total(6-8)6th 7th 8th

1996-97 242 249 238 729

1997-98 242 234 230 706

1998-99 232 241 247 720

1999-00 259 235 237 731

2000-01 242 261 229 732

2001-02 247 249 266 762

2002-03 228 242 233 703

2003-04 252 240 244 736

2004-05 259 263 252 774

2005-06 235 257 269 761

2006-07* 230 237 247 714

2007-08 249 230 235 714

2008-09 270 249 227 746

2009-10 209 270 247 726

2010-11 250 209 267 726

2011-12 228 250 207 6852012-13 210 228 247 685

2013-14 211 209 226 646

2014-15 219 210 207 636

2015-16 210 219 208 637

2016-17 236 209 217 662Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other yearsst

- projected by Planning Decisions, Inc.


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B. 2006-07 NASB Closing Models

Table VI-2 - Historical and Projected Middle School Enrollment (6-8)1996-97 to 2016-17 - Brunswick Military Students and New Resident Students

This section should provide Brunswick with reasonable estimates of future military enrollment and additional new resident students invacated military housing. However, enrollment may changesignificantly if the decommissioning time line of Naval Air StationBrunswick changes. (See Table VI-2 and Figure VI-1).


Grades 6-8 enrollment of traditional Brunswick students since1996-97 ranged between 552 and 621 students through 2006-07.

Grades 6-8 enrollment of military students since 1996-97 ranged between 136 and 160 students through 2006-07.


Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 1 model, 6-8enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714students, to range between 664 and 711 students through 2012-13.Following 2012-13, enrollment will decline further to range



Under the 2006-07 NASB Closing Scenario 2 model, 6-8enrollment will decline from the current enrollment of 714students, to reach 684 students by 2010-11. Following 2010-11,enrollment will decline further to range between 618 and 662students through 2016-17.

SchoolYear

No Change - Best F i t Model NASB Clos ing Scenar io 1 NASB Closing Scenario 2

Trad.Resident

M ilitary To tal M ilitaryIn-Migr.New Res.

Tot al M ili ta ryIn-Migr

New Res.Total

1996-97 575 154 729 154 729 154 7291997-98 552 154 706 154 706 154 706

1998-99 572 148 720 148 720 148 720

1999-00 595 136 731 136 731 136 731

2000-01 596 136 732 136 732 136 732

2001-02 611 151 762 151 762 151 762

2002-03 555 148 703 148 703 148 703

2003-04 585 151 736 151 736 151 736

2004-05 614 160 774 160 774 160 774

2005-06 621 140 761 140 761 140 761

2006-07* 574 140 714 140 714 140 714

2007-08 574 140 714 126 7 707 140 0 714

2008-09 606 140 746 70 35 711 126 7 739

2009-10 586 140 726 21 56 663 84 28 698

2010-11 586 140 726 14 84 684 56 42 684

2011-12 545 140 685 7 112 664 28 56 629

2012-13 545 140 685 0 126 671 7 84 636

2013-14 506 140 646 0 133 639 0 112 618

2014-15 496 140 636 0 140 636 0 126 622

2015-16 497 140 637 0 140 637 0 133 630

2016-17 522 140 662 0 140 662 0 140 662

Source: 1996-97 to 2006-07 - historical enrollment, October 1 Enrollment Reports; all other years -st

pro jec ted by Pla nni ng D eci sio ns, Inc .


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Table VII-2 - Historical and Projected High School Enrollment (9-12)1996-97 to 2016-17 - Brunswick Military Students and New Resident Students

This section should provide Brunswick with reasonable estimates of future military enrollment and additional new resident students invacated military housing. However, enrollment may changesignificantly if the decommissioning time line of Naval Air StationBrunswick changes. (See Table VII-2 and Figure VII-1).


Grades 9-12 enrollment of traditional Brunswick studentsincreased from 698 students in 1996-97 to reach 815 students in1998-99. Following 1998-99, enrollment remained stable, ranging

between 823 and 876 students through 2005-0

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